The Disappearance of the Elite Free Agent

Hardcore Legend recently wrote a diary about the Cardinals search for a cleanup hitter that many of you read and commented on.  He referenced a certain promise from Cardinal ownership regarding our team’s pursuit of elite free agents.  Most of us have heard it:  “When the right guy comes along, we will certainly be in the bidding.”  This phrase, “the right guy” is certainly referring to the elite free agent acquisitions and not the Kip Wells/Matt Clement reclamation project 

My concern is simple.  There will not be another “right guy,” maybe ever.  This offseason and other recent ones have seen the development of a new trend that threatens the quality of upcoming free agents classes: the signing of young, up and coming stars to long term deals.  Quite frankly, this practice makes the promise of signing an elite free agent a hollow one. 

Here is a list of some young players who have received contract extensions along with the type of deal. 

Grady Sizemore- 6 years/$23.45 million with club option

Troy Tulowitzki- 6 years/$31 million with club option

Chris Young- six year deal, similar terms as Tulo deal

James Shields- 4 year deal guaranteed, three club option years, worth up to $44 million

Evan Longoria- 6 years/$17.5 million, potentially worth up to 7 years/$44 million

Miguel Cabrera- 7 years/140 million (much bigger deal, but Miggy is still very young) 

Our own Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina, and even Albert are also examples of this.  I am sure there are more I am missing.  Baseball is flowing with cash right now, and that money is getting to the individual clubs and then to the players.  I believe this type of deal will become more and more commonplace as teams with money to spend will seek to lock up the stars they have exclusive negotiating rights with.  This is awesome for small market teams who can keep their young stars cost-controlled for potentially several years into arbitration and even free agency, but it is drastically thinning out the free agent markets each offseason. 

The problem is worse than just young players signing elsewhere, veterans are also signing extensions as well.  Vernon Wells, Ichiro, Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, and Johan Santana are all very recent example of players who reupped with their squads instead of truly testing the free agent market, whether it was just after a trade or through a long term player/team relationship.  All of this combines to create a situation where free agency will be a thin market in seeking superlative talent. 

I hear many people talking about the amount of money coming off the books for the Cardinals in upcoming seasons and people getting excited about using that money to sign free agents.  The problem is that many of this elite talents are not going to be hitting the free agent market for years, if ever.  Even if they do hit free agency, many of them are into their early 30’s and even later.  As time goes by, the free agent market will have some good players, but very few who aren’t flawed in some significant way.  This trend will continue to hit the free agent classes hard and really limit the amount of quality talent available to sign.  Of course, the cost for this talent will be huge, as recent markets has seen.  In this dynamic, an entirely new strategy for building a baseball team is required. 

There are a few possible solutions to this issue.  One is being aggressive in the trade markets and acquiring elite level talent that way.  Of course, to do this, we must have talent to send to the other team, and that brings us to the true solution to this problem. 

We must draft and develop our own elite talent.  This is incredibly simple, maybe almost stupid to say, but it is true.  I would like to see the Cardinals invest a lot of money into the amateur draft and our farm system so we will have premium talent flowing to the big club on a regular basis.  An overflow of talent also gives us the option of trading for megastars when they come to be available from time to time, like last offseason.  Let’s all hope that Colby Rasmus is merely the first of a series of excellent players that are developed by our Cardinals.  If he is alone, then it could be difficult and extremely expensive to build the next core of a title seeking Cardinals squad. 

In this new era, info about upcoming draftees and about our current farm situation will be just as important as info on the upcoming free agents.  It may be even more important.  That’s why Future Redbirds and the red baron’s posts about draftees have been so cool.  I am convinced more than ever that our team must be a organization that develops young talent and then gives those players a chance to contribute at the major league level.  Every Aaron Miles, Cesar Izturis, Adam Kennedy, Mark Mulder v2.0, Kip Wells, Matt Clement deal is taking up money and roster spots that could be used for talent development and evaluation.  I believe that path is a much better investment. 

Thanks for reading!