... i wasn’t expecting much of anything from Carpenter this year, but i didn’t have any medical reason for thinking that.

i’ve heard it suggested that maybe Carp should pitch in the pen as a setup man when he comes back. perhaps that isn’t a bad idea. TLR did it with Morris in 2000… maybe he’ll do it with Carp this year. it would probably be for the best in the long run, and we’ve still got several years tied up in Carp.

of course, if the starting pitching is suffering by July/Aug and Mulder and Clement both flame out - all of which, to me, still represents the most likely arc of this season - then their gonna throw Carp out there as soon as he can throw 75 pitches without pain.

i always am appreciative of your thoughts on these matters, and can tell you did some good research on this whole mess

as far as clement, i really think theres a better than 50 percent chance that he never starts a game for us this year

with mulder, i agree with you that i would love for him to prove us wrong, but i put the chances at that of about 20-25 percent

carpenter on the other hand, i think has about a 75 percent chance of pitching before august, more likely as a reliever early, with a few starts possible late in september

i once again want to thank you for the insight, anytime there is an injury, i want to hear your take on it

the thing that i really wish was possible would be for you to have access to the medical staffs research, because i think you do a better job than the cards staff by just what you can read that is available the general public

Excellent work

And I’m with you on repeating the Morris path.

But this just from the Post-Dispatch:

“

Chris Carpenter threw a 60-pitch bullpen session Friday and afterward pitching coach Dave Duncan called him ready to face hitters. Carpenter will return, as scheduled, to the Cardinals’ facility in Jupiter, Fla., on Sunday. He’ll throw his first live batting practice session Monday against the hitters at extended spring training. Though it might shorten the length of his rehab from elbow surgery, the Cardinals are not considering bringing Carpenter back first as a reliever so he can build toward a late-season return to the rotation.

Manager Tony La Russa dismissed that same notion for Mark Mulder, who will make his second rehab start Sunday.”

Great stuff, Bob. Discouraging, but great.

Thanks for doing it.

I haven’t really read much on him, in the line of updates. What is going on with him? I was not really excited when the BOB decided to take a chance on him. Can we expect anything from him this year? Will he at least be in the rotation before Carp? I am really pist because throughout the off-season when we signed him he and the Cardinal medical staff said he was healthy and ready to go at the start of the season.

I think this is a worhty piece I would like to see the Post pick up or maybe Goold could run it over at Birdland.

Very nice.

One thing though. Carp said he took advice from others and really worked hard at keeping his shoulder in good shape. I hope this is the x-factor that allows him to buck the trend.

I guess the worst is to put him in the pen and then if we make the playoffs maybe he will be ready then to start.

I’m a physical therapist and a certified strength and conditioning specialist, and there are some poor assumptions your making…

“Most starting pitchers don’t successfully return to starting prior the 18.5-month point. ”
The average “return to the major leagues” time was 18.5 mo NOT average time of rehab as your claiming. Your not accounting for the offseason. Most players are ready to return at 12 mo, but if the 12th month is November or December, then they have to wait 4-5 more months to get their return to MLB game. Thats 16-17 mo, when it would have actually been 12. So that factor “drove up” the actual time in the study.

Also the study included any player that had pitched 1 major league game in their career, then that would account for a number of players who were career minor leaguers and got spot starts. It would obviously take them longer than normal to return to the major leagues, because they weren’t big league quality to begin with.

“The outliers (SP’s who have returned to starting immediately at 12-14 months post-TJS) were younger than 30. ”
The authors themselves stated that NO factors predictive of a successful return to play were identified. They did their own examination, and found nothing statistically significant. You selected players you knew had the surgery and had the information to examine how long their return took, so its far from accurate.

In my professional opinion, Carp will be back in the middle of July. He might come out of the bullpen for a while, but I would expect him to have a lengthy rehab assignment starting, not relieving. If our staff is looking solid, then he very well may come out of the pen just to be cautious. I expect him to be 80-85% of his normal form initially, hopefully getting to 90-95% by the end of the season. Next year he should be back to 100%.

“The authors themselves stated that NO factors predictive of a successful return to play were identified. They did their own examination, and found nothing statistically significant. You selected players you knew had the surgery and had the information to examine how long their return took, so its far from accurate.

I dont want to get into a PT, CSCS (Because I have those credentials too) fight with you here, but I did not assume anything. If you can find me some additional examples where MLB pitchers, most preferably starters, returned at 12 months to the major leagues, please, enlighten me. Because I don’t see it. THAT is a major point that drives my opinion.

Another example: Francisco Liriano, a dominant SP in 2006, completed his rehab in about 11 months. He did not make the team out of spring training in 2008. He obviously was not his dominant self in 12 months. Hell, he wasn’t himself after 17 months.

Also the study included any player that had pitched 1 major league game in their career, then that would account for a number of players who were career minor leaguers and got spot starts. It would obviously take them longer than normal to return to the major leagues, because they weren’t big league quality to begin with.

I see youre point, but you’re also contradicting your own argument. I personally didn’t look for league-replacement level talent. Carpenter is a top-level starter. You cannot compare him to just anybody. I don’t see how that is inaccurate.

Your “professional opinion” is not that far off from mine. I took into account his age and his previous surgical history. Do we really want Carpenter pitching as a starter at 85% strength?

I sure don’t.

What exactly is it that would be holding {pitcher} back at 12 months? 18 months? Are there signs that our training staff should be looking at, other than the typical “guy who used to throw 94 now throws 88”?

What do y’all think of the arm-strength system the red sox have been using to limit pitcher workloads?

Not really any inside knowledge. I think they’ve gotten a bad rap because of some tough high profile injuries (Mulder, Rolen). My only complaint would be their reluctance to get Carpenter and Mulder’s surgeries done rather than trying very extensive rehabs. Hindsight is 20/20 though, I don’t know all the specifics to criticize.

Great job on this post and in the comments section. This does a wonderful job of shedding some light on just what the comeback trail entails for pitchers who undergo these procedures. What’s more, it unspins some of the Cards organization’s spin on these injuries and what we can expect from these players. However, it worries me that we may, and probably will, replace some of our healthy arms that are performing well with arms fresh off of the rehab from major procedures, especially where Mulder and Clement are concerned.

Thanks so much SilentBob, for providing an analysis Cardinals fans can’t get anywhere else.

It seems that perhaps the question isn’t when Carpenter should return, it’s when he’ll be effective. If that’s 2009, I’m okay with that. For the first time in a while, the big league club is giving playing time to players who need to prove themselves, rather than trotting out scrap-heap alternatives (Aaron Miles notwithstanding). This season gives Moz and the coaches a chance to see what they’re working with.

I had a couple of points of clarification/disagreement with this post.

First, the sinker and slider do not put higher levels on the shoulder than any other pitch. That is because most pitches are thrown from the same arm slot and with the same arm action.

Second, the sinker is a very SAFE pitch for the elbow because it involves pronation. That is one reason why Maddux has been free of elbow problems.

I agree that the slider is a VERY bad pitch for the elbow. The cutter and slider are the worst pitches for the elbow because they involve high-force supination of the forearm.

I don’t think anyone has mentioned him so far. Does anyone have an update on him? Last I heard his pitching arm is recovered but his other arm was broken.

in thanking Silent Bob for the terrific, meaty FanPost and everyone else (especially CrimsonBirdFan) for the substantive and informative discussion. The kind of thing that makes this blog great.

I, too, worry that this Carp-returns-in-July timetable is asking for problems. If I’m Mo and the organization, my #1 priority is ensuring that Carp is 100% healthy and ready to pitch at a high level on Opening Day 2009. If that means he only makes a few major-league starts near the end of the season to gauge his overall progress (or takes the MattyMo “ease him in as a reliever first” approach), so be it—no matter what that means for our chances this year. The club has too much money invested in Carp to screw this up.