How far above projections are they?

by bgodar on Apr 17, 2008 8:55 PM EDT Comment 3 comments

Like many of you, I've spent much time lately wondering one thing: Is there any way they can sustain this? So even with only 10% of the season past and much of what we've seen likely aberration, I decided to look at which hitters are outperforming their projections and by just how much.

I came to two conclusions: Almost everybody's beating their projections, but there is some reason to hope it will continue.

PECOTA expected the Cards to win 75 games with an AVG/OBP/SLG line of .257/.328/.405. To date, their actual line has been .277/.364/.437. This seems to coincide with most observations - they're doing a good job of getting on base, executing well once they do, but not necessarily mashing the ball.

For a one-stop snapshot of individual performances, I looked at actual vs. PECOTA projected EQA. The advantage is that PECOTA provides not only a projected number, but intervals above and below that number.

Six Cardinal hitters are currently above their 90% EQA projection: Pujols, Ludwick, Barton, Ankiel, Schumaker and Izturis. Also hitting above their projections are Duncan, at over 75%, and Molina and Kennedy, at over 60%.

Meanwhile, Glaus and Miles are grossly below their projections - both under 10%.

These numbers support the notion that we're in for a correction, with 7 players dramatically outperforming their projections and only two dramatically underperforming. Production above 90% or below 10% is likely unsustainable, and the aggregate would be an overall decline. So that's the quantified bad news.

But one interesting trend is also clear - the relative levels of performance are almost directly correlated to age, with all of our super performers under 30. This makes me hopeful that, while I don't expect them to stay so far above their projections, there's legitimate reason to think guys like Ludwick, Barton and Ankiel at least can beat expectations. Put another way, I'm more optimistic with these guys off to a great start than I would be were it Kennedy, Glaus, Juan Gonzalez, etc.

It's probably inevitable that the team falls off this pace, but I'm curious what others have seen that suggests certain guys may be on pace to better our collective expectations.

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Pecota and Ankiel...

Out of all those six performing better, five probably are playing above their heads. But is it really possible to project Ankiel with any accuracy? He’s a very unusual case. Heck, is Baseball Reference page is basically broken, all the players he is compared to are pitchers.

Anyway, my point is, it’s my understanding of Pecota, that it predicts largely by comparing players to other similar players. But in Ankiel’s case, there basically are no similar players

Bench Skippy, start Ludwick

by DiscoJer on Apr 18, 2008 4:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He is unique

In fact, with a Similarity Index of under 20 (19), PECOTA labels him as “historically unusual.” For players such as him, they expand their parameters to reach a meaningful pool of comparables.

That said, looking at his comps, they seem to make sense – Eric Munson, Preston Wilson… mostly guys with prodigious power but prone to swing and miss. Fellow pitcher turned hitter Brooks Kieschnick even made the list at #3. At any rate, their projection for him this season: .257avg, 28hr, 94rbi, seems very reasonable, maybe even a little optimistic.

by bgodar on Apr 18, 2008 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs