AccuScore Projections

by warpig2003 on Apr 16, 2008 2:28 PM EDT

Maybe I've missed a discussion about this, but I ran into on Espn's game preview deal. I'm not an "Espn Insider" so I cannot view all the details of this, but it looks pretty cool.

It says "AccuScore has powered more than 10,000 simulations for every MLB game for ESPN.com, each simulated one play at a time and minimum of 10,000 times."

The free one gives stats on who is the underdog as well as HR, hit, and RBI percentages.

Anyone know what all they take in account? Is this something they do each day, or did they do it at the beginning of the year? I can't really tell from that short description. Seems like all the number and stat guys in here would be interested in this.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview?gameId=280416124

It says the Cardinals are the favorite at 61% tonight.

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what's the track record for this system?

does it predict winners accurately?

by lboros on Apr 16, 2008 4:09 PM EDT 0 recs

Not sure, but

Accuscore’s record on NFL games for last season was 163-89, putting it exactly in the middle of the pack with all of ESPN’s “experts”, finishing higher than four and lower than the other four.

Not sure how that would translate to MLB, but I can imagine that it wouldn’t work as well. The percentages themselves would be much harder to analyze.

by Phizzle on Apr 16, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

I know...

I know nothing about this system, I had never seen it before. Thats what I was curious.

Welcome back Tony, adios Kip.

by warpig2003 on Apr 16, 2008 4:48 PM EDT 0 recs

AccuScore

ESPN used it last year in their previews. I think, from the few times I saw it, that it was fairly accurate, but that’s just anecdotal evidence. Nothing really to back it up, unless I checked some old game threads over at CardsClubhouse. For a while there we usually posted the AccuScore at the beginning of the thread.

C70 at the Bat

by Cardinal70 on Apr 16, 2008 4:55 PM EDT 0 recs

Bored

And with the search function over there, it wasn’t too hard. Here’s what I could find:

5/7/07: Colorado favored 52/48 and wins
5/8/07: SL favored 52/45 and wins
5/9/07: SL favored 54/46 and wins
5/11/07: San Diego favored 70/30 and wins (Peavy on mound)
5/14/07: LAD favored 56/44 and loses
5/18/07: SL favored 53/47 and loses (Andrew Miller’s first start)
5/22/07: SL favored 57/43 and wins
6/12/07: KC favored 54/46 and wins
8/29/07: SL favored 55/45 and loses
9/1/07: SL favored 72/28 and wins
4/15/08: SL favored 59/41 and wins

So, AccuScore is 8-3 in this small sample.

C70 at the Bat

by Cardinal70 on Apr 16, 2008 5:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

i remember

we were favored on opening day, which surprised me. Of course that one got rained out, but it was looking like it was headed the right way…

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on Apr 16, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

todays accuscore

AccuScore 2008 Game Forecast
Team Win percent Big win Close win
Milwaukee Brewers 44.5% 16.6% 11.9%
St. Louis Cardinals 55.5% 18.1% 20.4%

AccuScore 2008 Season Betting Trends  
Milwaukee Brewers  W  L  UNITS  
2008 Season to Date  8  6  164  
'08 Favored to Win  4  2  47  
'08 Underdog  4  4  117  
'08 Road Games  4  4  117  
'08 Road Underdog  4  4  117  
'08 Road Favorite  0  0  0  
'08 vs STL  0  2  -200  
'08 vs National League  8  6  164  
'08 vs NL Central  3  5  -166  
Manny Parra Started  1  1  -42  
Manny Parra On Road  0  1  -100  
  St. Louis Cardinals  W  L  UNITS  
2008 Season to Date  11  4  554  
'08 Favored to Win  7  7  341  
'08 Underdog  4  2  213  
'08 Home Games  7  1  471  
'08 Home Favorite  5  1  271  
'08 Home Underdog  2  0  200  
'08 vs MIL  2  0  166  
'08 vs National League  11  4  554  
'08 vs NL Central  4  1  262  
Kyle Lohse Started  2  1  45  
Kyle Lohse at Home  1  1  -30

AccuScore Relevant 2007 Trends  
Milwaukee Brewers  W  L  UNITS  
2007 SEASON  83  79  -915  
'07 Favored to Win  61  43  60  
'07 Underdog  22  36  -975  
'07 Road Games  32  49  -1661  
'07 Road Underdog  17  32  -1162  
'07 Road Favorite  15  17  -499  
'07 vs STL  7  8  -234  
'07 vs National League  75  72  -929  
'07 vs NL Central  43  36  -14  
Manny Parra Started  0  2  -200  
Manny Parra On Road  0  2  -200  
  St. Louis Cardinals  W  L  UNITS  
2007 SEASON  77  85  -486  
'07 Favored to Win  35  35  -769  
'07 Underdog  42  50  283  
'07 Home Games  43  38  50  
'07 Home Favorite  28  25  -368  
'07 Home Underdog  15  13  418  
'07 vs MIL  8  7  286  
'07 vs National League  71  76  -302  
'07 vs NL Central  43  37  670  
Kyle Lohse Started  17  15  287  
Kyle Lohse at Home  10  4  524

by bretsyboo on Apr 17, 2008 11:38 AM EDT 0 recs

hmmm

don’t know why the cut and paste didn’t work, my apologies, should have previewed.

the most interesting part of the part you can’t see is that the cardinals were .500 when plaing games they were supposed to win last year, and 8 under when playing games they were supposed to lose. I’m betting it was just an interesting team, as milwaukee has what one would more expect +18 in expected wins -14 in expected losses.

At first glance accuscore seems pretty irrelevant in determining anything. Most games are going to be obvious as far as who the favorite is, and with the nature of baseball’s win a third lose a third history to count on accuscore as anything accurate seems silly.

BUT if they could combine with with the WinGraphs thing, as in simulating a game 1,000,000 times based on what has already happened, that could be a really fun tool.

I believe as of now the winexpectancy doesn’t compute who is on base, who is pitching, and who is at the plate. But there is a huge difference in being down one, with two on and izturus at the plate, and someone who might actually get a hit, such as my little sister.

So come on, someone get on this, so that we can get truly active predictions as to what should happen. I can’t, I’ve got to walk the dog, and I’m not smart enough.

by bretsyboo on Apr 17, 2008 11:49 AM EDT 0 recs