meaningless trivia

Kennedy

I have to disagree-the man hit the ball quite hard in 2 of his 3 hits last night. Plus he flashed some major range in the field. He’s obviously showing that the knee affected him last year, IMO.

Miles, OTOH…...meh.

by silent_bob on Apr 16, 2008 9:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the stretch on the barton single

was very impressive. i signed up for MLB extra innings recently, and being in Charlotte, NC, most of the cards games wont be blacked out here. at any rate, i was watching last night and was quite impressed when he went from first to third on the barton ground out. he also had the nice defensive play on the grounder up the middle. granted, two plays does not a season make but i was least glad to see him making positive contributions.

by UNCDubya on Apr 16, 2008 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why are people praising his defense?

He had two awful throws last night … one that almost resulted in a catastrophic injury. He had a throwing error on top of those two early bad throws.

by jeff_abs on Apr 16, 2008 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

kennedy

he also made that ridiculous highlight reel play last week, but i’d exchange that for regularly making routine plays any day.

by spencegrif on Apr 16, 2008 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

everyone is entitled

to a bad throw every now and then. He’s had… what? 2 or 3 web gems this year already?

Alberts fine, all is well.

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now and then

He had three bad throws last night including an error on one and hurting Pujols on another.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But on an uplifting note

......after the throw Pujols said “I’m OK man”...it actually sounded like “man” without the G.

Those kind of throws happen several times a day during the season on every team in every game, its part of the game and Kennedy, for all his other woes, is no worse than any infielder in MLB in that dept.

by cardschinmusic on Apr 17, 2008 5:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

who would have thought

That at this point in the season Cesar Izturis is our best MIF option? At least he seems to hit the ball with SOME authority (not often) and he has gotten on base (again, not sure how long that lasts). Cesar can still run—where Kennedy seems to have gotten slower.

I liked the Kennedy signing at the time but, as I’ve said before, he has ZERO life to his game right now. No electricity in his bat, he doesn’t have much running speed anymore, etc. He just looks like he’s gotten old—it happens. I don’t see him becoming a doubles hitter which I thought he would be able to do. He used to be Skip before Skip became Skip.

Re: Skip. Agreed with Lboros. If he hits .270-.280 (which I think he can do) and walks some he will be fine in the leadoff spot. He doesn’t have a ton of pop but he will hit the ball hard and collect quite a few doubles. He doesn’t steal bases but he is a good baserunner and from all accounts a plus defender. Good for him and for us.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 16, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Enough with the Kennedy apologists

Not trying to pick a fight with you here, silent bob, but you’re one of many who seem eager to announce the resurrection of Adam Kennedy, and I just don’t see it. I don’t think I’ve heard/watched a single game this season where Shannon/McLaughlin/Hrabosky didn’t say something to the effect of, “this is the Adam Kennedy we saw with the Angels,” or “he’s back.”

Kennedy hit 13 xtra base hits last season in 279ab, or one every 21ab. 35ab into this season, he doesn’t have a single xtra base hit. That’s a small sample, etc., so I wouldn’t go so far as to say he’s worse, but it sure doesn’t suggest he’s any better.

by bgodar on Apr 16, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kennedy is showing a nice glove so far this year.

Mistakes will be made but overall I don’t cringe nearly as much as I did last year everytime a ball was hit his way.

Give him time once he gets more comfortable at the plate maybe the pop will come back. At least he is hitting something.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Apr 16, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As long as he gets on base +.300 he’s fine. Of course he didn’t have great numbers last year, he spent most of it injured.

Now he’s in a platoon situation and when Ryan comes up he’ll have to earn some at bats. In a groundout rotation he’s always been a reasonable glove. (.983 career) .

He’s starting to warm up and hopefully it’ll continue. The issue is two fold. Either we keep him in and let him wind back up, or we bench and place Ryan in his place.

We bench him and he’ll have little to no trade value unless a team suddenly goes in pure desperation. His contract will warrant something as he’s getting a chunk of change.

And if you look before the injury year his numbers are comparable to what Ryan may bring to the table, with slightly less pop. His glove seems to be better.

In the end we shouldn’t base Kennedy off of last year alone, it’s injury based and isn’t directly his fault. If it was the case we’d be seeing griping about Carp, Enc, and others as well. It happens.

But right now if we bench him and barely use him or help his trade value increase, we’re essentially throwing away 10mil.

Kennedy is a product of our farm system, has a reasonable career and shouldn’t be judged on one injury laden year alone.

Not being apologetic, just willing to give him a little more than 14 games before I cut him loose.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 16, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

MI slg's

i’m still very meh on the subject. if those three guys can finish in the ecksteinesque .340 OBP/.310 SLG range while playing solid defense, i’d accept it. there’s plenty of pop elsewhere in the lineup, especially with a full season of ankiel and ludwick. it was mentioned on this site yesterday (?) that the organization had identified OBP as an area they needed to improve on, so i’m sold on the walk rate improvements and i think a lot of these guys can keep it up the whole season.

glaus needs to start pulling the ball with some authority, though. just about every time i’ve seen him up there he’s struck out.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Apr 16, 2008 9:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

.310 SLG

Where do you get that? Eck’s career avg SLG is .362. With STL he had .395, .344 and .382. If those three can combine for a .340/.360 – OBP/SLG I’d be okay with that…i.e. at least a .700 OPS, as that is probably a conservative projection of what Hoff and Ryan could provide…with no loss on defense.

by cardzfanbub on Apr 16, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i know

that’s why i always thought eck was underrated – it was more based on the impression of him than anything. everyone expects something like that out of him since he’s so tiny, but he does do a little better (although his last two seasons in anaheim he slugged .325 and .332).

unfortunately there’s not a whole lot of reason to expect the MI trio now to do any better than that, so i’m trying to soften the mental blow of having to see that kind of SLG. my main point was that if they can keep the OBPs decent i’ll take than and anything else is gravy.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Apr 16, 2008 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't seen a lot of hoff

and I’m one of his biggest fans on here, but I’m not convinced that he will provide equivalent defense to Kennedy. Kennedy is better defensively than given credit for being, bad throws and all.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on Apr 16, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Highly agree

And with the sheer amount of groundouts our staff will produce. That defense is going to equate into a number of runs. Argument applies for Iz as well.. as long as he gets on base at a reasonable click.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 16, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Love McClellan

yeah, I picked him as my surprise breakthrough (total luck)..........brag, brag, brag on myself…....but, I really love young cheap guys that suddenly fill an (any) roster spot with aplomb….......the rewards are never ending

- performance today
- money saved (that can be spent elsewhere)
- positive pressure on the vets to perform
- youthful enthusiasm and new blood in the clubhouse
- trading chips
- guys on the team that are thrilled to be there and not worried about their role or next long term contract
- a spot vacated in the minors that another youngster can shine in
- a shining example to other youngsters that they too can make it

The only downside to a McClellan is the constant fear that his arm will just break down – ala Dennis Dove or a million other young flash in the pan – but its a necessary gamble. The fact that he is local is just icing on the cake.

I firmly believe these youngsters who can find their way onto the team are the real key to our future.

by Hinkster on Apr 16, 2008 9:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

MIs, Mulder, batting order

As regards the middle infielders, keep in mind that Ryan is lurking out there. He’s not going to be great, but he will be an improvement on that collective line and he will get some ABs. He’d better; when some of the other guys come back to earth (Molina, Ludwick, and as much as I like Brian Barton, he’s not gonna bat .400 all year), someone will have to pick up the slack.

Re:Mulder: Maybe I’m mistaken, but I don’t think of him as ever having been in the nineties routinely with the fast ball. A lefty who sits around 88, throws nasty off-speed stuff, and puts the ball exactly where he wants it will get people out—anyone else remember the amazing year John Tudor had in 1985? Most beautiful pitching I’ve ever seen, period.

And finally, on batting order: I’m pretty sure that list isn’t complete even for the post-1956 data. The White Sox of the 1960s had a pitcher named Gary Peters who batted higher in the order, not because of rarefied arguments about lineup construction and modeling, but because he was just a better hitter than most of the Hose of the time—which admittedly was a rather low bar. He batted as high as sixth on occasion. They didn’t bat anyone else higher in the order, just their slugging pitcher. That’s the case with most of the other teams cited.

by StanTheManFan on Apr 16, 2008 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mulder

That’s the rub with Mulder: we can live with a 88 MPH heater if his control is back not only with his FB but also with his offspeed stuff. This guy’s breaking stuff has to be spotted well. So a report on 88 mph fastball doesn’t tell us much. I’d be just more interested in ball-strike ratio and whether he was missing bats.

by jjray on Apr 16, 2008 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

mulder pitches

41 strikes to 19 balls, and 9 ground outs to 5 fly outs. It is a rehab start, he will improve velocity with time. I have hope, though it is somewhat tempered by last year’s ‘return’.

by cdb on Apr 16, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thanks CDB

I was just too lazy to go find an enhanced minor league box score myself.

by jjray on Apr 16, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He did mention himself (Mulder) that due to the healing elbow his velocity was erratic at times...

I am in the camp that hopes they don’t rush him and let him find his rythym in the minors before testing him on the major league level.

And for God sake if Piniero says Mulder is ready don’t listen to him.

I still think they should have told Joel to relax and just pitched Thompson one more time. No need to rush.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Apr 16, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i checked the white sox's batting orders at Baseball-Reference

from 1964-68; didn’t see any instances where a pitcher batted higher than 9th in the order. here’s the link to day by day batting orders for 1964; you can just click forward through the years.

peters definitely was a good hitter though — 19 career homers and a career OPS+ of 70.

by lboros on Apr 16, 2008 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I couldn't find it there either

which puzzles me. I remember the newspaper article about Peters batting up as clearly as if it had been in today’s paper. I want to do some research on this one.

by StanTheManFan on Apr 16, 2008 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Barton doesn't have to hit .400

to be a better offensive player than Ryan.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Apr 16, 2008 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mulder

Why the trepidition about Mulder? It’s conclusory to say he’s “part of the past.” In fact, his contract says differently.

That he topped out at 88 mph doesn’t trouble me either. He was hitting 90 the other day, so I don’t look at it as a sign that he isn’t healthy.

If the view is, “we’re off to a pretty good start, so let’s not mess with it”—that view is true, but it doesn’t go very far. We’re a better team if we have 2003-quality Mark Mulder. So far, I’d say he looks pretty good because he’s throwing strikes and no one is hitting him very hard.

So says, Titus Pullo (formerly The Dude)

by Titus Pullo on Apr 16, 2008 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was someone eagerly waiting to see a corrected Mark Mulder

this time around but having his ‘topping out’ speed drop from 90 to 88 from one start to the next isn’t a sign that anything is fixed. It seems more than likely that he is facing the same problem he did last year when he started for the Cardinals and that is a sharp drop off in velocity after a very short time due to his arm becoming extremely fatigued.

I no longer am eagerly waiting for Mulder to be rushed back. I assumed it would mean the end of Todd Wellemeyer or Braden Looper as a starter but now I’d much rather see one of them replaced with Anthony Reyes.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's all overanalyzation at this point...

I’m so sick of hearing about Mulder and Carp’s “progress.”

Just tell me when they’re ready to pitch on the big club. The media is clueless as to what they’re reporting.

Just like Carp and Clement, Mulder would be better off working out of the ‘pen in ‘08. I don’t get why teams don’t do this more. John Smoltz is the gold standard and needs to be emulated.

by silent_bob on Apr 16, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i agree

to the pen! of course, with mulders and carpenters contracts that probably wont happen…

"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon

by nomar34 on Apr 16, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mulder to the Pen....

Intriguing, do something with Villone once Mulder comes back, have Mulder fall into a lefty reliever slot, used for long relief as well, and eventually work him up to starting by the end of the year.

by StLHugo on Apr 16, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That will never happen....... it makes to much sense.

Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.

by Eckstreem on Apr 16, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mulder

I know that Mulder is probably going to be a burden at first, but remember, in 2005 he was 16 – 8 with a 3.64. In addition, it will be nice to have at least one south paw to break up hitters in series. And yea, Looper pitched 5 good innings. So has Welly and Thompson (when he was in the rotation). But we need to get Starters back who can go deep into the game. Mulder has that potential. In 2005 he average around 6.1 innings per game. That would help if we can get him back there.

by Paducah Greg on Apr 16, 2008 9:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

2005

was a long, long time ago

by UNCDubya on Apr 16, 2008 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is there some kind of stat that shows a pitcher’s average run support? Looper seems to get good run support from his teammates and clutch hits. I think that’s why he’s been successful.

Random points:

-It’s getting harder and harder to criticize the lineup choices, etc. of LaRussa. They just keep on winning!
-No one would ever have guessed that our pitching would be 2nd in the league so far!
-When will Barton see more playing time?
-How about rotating people into and out of the starting rotation and bullpen? Sounds crazy, but might be an interesting way to treat this pitching overabundance.
-Kennedy probably won’t be the starting 2B by the end of the season

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Barton

Will see more playing time when we face lefties. His last outing he went the whole 9 innings. I think Tony isn’t going to start to replace him with a defensive sub until the 7th or 8th from now on. Tony has stated by mid season he should be finishing the games he starts in.

by Evilfrog on Apr 16, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Grit Miles and Walk Rate Spikes

Early in the ‘06 season, Miles saw a noticeable spike in his walk rate as well—one that carried through to season’s end and caused me to, on this very site, advocate for him receiving AB’s. Grit + OBP= Everybody happy (even if Slugging is nowhere to be found).

In 2006, Miles had a wonderful April in terms of walk rate and OBP, strikingly similar to Skip’s this young season. Through April 30th, Miles had 10 BB in 63 plate appearances and an OBP of .412. That year, Grit Miles set a career high for walks with 38 to go with 466 plate appearances (8.15% walk rate). He only hit .263, and didn’t have a great OBP, which was .324. Now, compare that to last season when he hit nearly 30 points higher with a BA of .290, but with no improvement in OBP, which was .328. The difference? Walk rate.

I hope that Skippy maintains his patient batting eye better than Miles has since April 2006.

by bgh on Apr 16, 2008 9:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Impressed with Bullpen

But wonder who will be sent down once Mulder and Springer return. I would think Villone will be the first to go (though I hate losing a lefty specialist).... but who is next? Reyes, Franklin, McClellan, Izzy, Flores, Thompson & Wellemeyer are all pitching solid. Leave Springer in the minors till needed? Looper is 3-0, the BaseBall Gods do have a sense of humor.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it wont be mclellan

With veteran reliever Russ Springer expected to come back onto the roster next week, another corresponding move will have to be made. But as far as McClellan going anywhere, La Russa said, “Where he goes, I’ll go with him.” from the dispatch today.

by UNCDubya on Apr 16, 2008 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

im amazed about looper as well

unfortunately, im working on qualifying exams and have missed all of his starts… but i wonder how he has looked. last year, i would cringe when ever he would pitch for fear that he would throw out a delicious offering that our meek offense could not recover from—this year, however, he has a beard and we have a seemingly excellent ability to come from behind (except for sunday’s game where we blew two chances to score in the 8th and 9th).

i would like to see mulder hang out in the minors so he can gain confidence, so he doesnt come back and get tee’ed off on. we dont really need him at this point while our starters are doing well, and aside from him having confidence in himself, the updates on stlcardinals.com (where leach tells me whats going on) give me confidence in him.

now, in response to the main post:

i have been pleasantly surprised by kennedy as well. he may not be cleaning up at the plate, but when i see him batting he looks like hes legit—i mean, hes not erratic like last year. the guy obviously worked hard on his plate discipline over the summer. i was all about releasing him last year, but i think he has improved a lot. i feel comfortable with him in the lineup and at second base.

by krippledmaster on Apr 16, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

when i say "summer"

i mean winter

by krippledmaster on Apr 16, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i know that wasn't intended to be funny

but that comment his sad..
and when i say sad, i mean hilarious.

I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Apr 16, 2008 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

its true though...

loopers beard gives him power.

by krippledmaster on Apr 16, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No need to worry

I’ve got the sinking suspicion that Tony will find a clever way to put some guys on the DL to give them some extra rest when another pitcher comes back…

by eglasier on Apr 16, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jo-el Piñiero?

If he pitches poorly on Saturday, I could see Joel returning to the DL to make room for Russ, with either Thompson or Reyes headed to the rotation.

It’s a shockingly solid pitching staff we’ve got. The weakest member in the ‘pen would have to be Villone, who’s not been used as a lefty specialist but more in the Eldred mop-up role. If someone were DFA’d or traded, I could see it being him.

by liam on Apr 16, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hitting the nail on the head per your comments

on the dreaded Mulder arrival. Sort of like when the drunk uncle shows up at Thanksgiving, you know it will not end well.

Steriods is...is bad.

by Handsome Jimmy on Apr 16, 2008 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sadly, the Cards have

A few drunken Uncles (no pun intended to the team’s past alcohol problems). Mulder, Pineiro, Springer & Clement will lead to a lively discussion around here and wondering when MO will be forced to make a move or two. Looks like he could package a couple of arms and a outfielder’s bat to land a big bat for insurance on Pujols.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's no insurance for Pujols

No matter what, if he goes down we’re sunk.

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Springer will retire before being traded

and I wouldn’t exactly give up on Joel after 1 start.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's now way ...

I would include Russ Springer on that list … he temporarily had an over-worked arm … he’s done nothing but produce results since he’s been here … what more do you want from him?

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Apr 16, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Springer was unbelievable last year. HE gets strikeouts by the boatload and rarely walks anyone. He is occasionally homer prone but he stays in any bullpen configuration in my book.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are we really complaining about too many options!?!?

Wow – we’re dreading the potential arrival of Mulder?

Seems to me we’re really trying to find something to complain about. Nobody says that he’s guaranteed a spot if he’s not producing.

Everybody was whining about the signing of Juan Gone to a no risk deal this spring because it was absolutely positively going to harm the club because he was going to take away a sport from a prospect. Last I checked he’s not around and Barton’s on the team – I think it worked out OK.

by birdo rojo on Apr 16, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

mulder

its not like we’re awaiting the arrival of a superstar here. everyone is scared because of TLR’s tendency to push “veteran” starters out there over more talented younger players, that is what is causing the apprehension.

by UNCDubya on Apr 16, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

if mulder's shoulder works

he is a superstar. No doubt about it.

The risk is that his shoulder WON’T work, and they’ll give him 4 or 5 starts to “pitch through it”, he’ll lose them all and we’ll miss the playoffs by one game.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on Apr 16, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the only superstar

years i’ve seen him have were in Oakland.

by UNCDubya on Apr 16, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gonzalez had a minor league contract

they are paying top dollar for Mulder. No way they don’t use him.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

Given the contract, there will definitely be an increased push to use him.

I’m just a bit more optimistic LaDunc will cut their loses and not continue to run him out there if he isn’t hacking it. They only gave him 3 or so last year to suck it up and the guy who signed the contract (Jocketty) was still around. I feel that since he’s gone, it should be easier to cut the losses if he doesn’t perform since they can say “I didn’t sign him”.

Hopefully he’ll come back and be a pleasant surprise. He can’t be any worse than Maroth was!

by birdo rojo on Apr 16, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't Mulder signed thru 2009?

Too much money being paid to just “let go”.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Club Option for 09

The best I can find quickly is he needed to make 30 starts in 07 & 08 for it to be guaranteed.

by birdo rojo on Apr 16, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

30 starts each year or total?

3 starts last year… 27 for this year isn’t going to happen. More incentive for him to do well then.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Instead of last year’s situation, this year both sides – Mulder and the staff are taking their time.

He’s working location, then building velocity. He’s doing what he should be doing.

By all accounts if Mulder doesn’t perform. His career is over. Best he’ll have is a spring training invitee next year when he free agents out. Fairly assuming we’d cut ties.

He has every incentive to not only to this right, but to give it a full shake in trying. We should support that.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 16, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Juan Gone

IIRC, he is at home nursing his injury, but he has an open invitation to try to re-join the club once he feels healthy enough.

if I’m wrong, someone please correct me.

C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!

by yer dog first on Apr 16, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're right

I think this is a great situation. You’ve got a guy that’s probably got a 2% chance of doing something, but if he did, he could be a real plus to the team. Since it doesn’t cost us anything in terms of money or prospect growth, we might as well keep the door open in that very slim chance things work out.

by birdo rojo on Apr 16, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice game at the plate for Kennedy

But he still is less than stellar in the field and has absolutely no pop in his bat. I’ll be surprised if he remains on the team all year.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What's the deal with BABIP, anyway?

I read the explanation the other day (thanks) and I understand what it means, but shouldn’t a player who’s hitting the ball harder have a higher BABIP? And doesn’t hitting a lot of home runs bring one’s BABIP down, depending on BB/K ratio?

The concept just doesn’t seem to make sense to me – remove strikeouts and homeruns, and you get a more reliable indicator of performance?

Am I missing something?

by thefutureofamerica on Apr 16, 2008 10:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

BABIP

It’s best value is that BABIP usually evens out over time, so it’s an indicator of future performance. By that, if someone has an unusually high BABIP, say .500, then he’s the receiver of good luck. BABIP for nearly all players is steady year over year. It can have spikes, to be certain, but it’s fairly steady. A high babip can indicate smoking the ball, it can indicate speed (beating out infield hits), but it usually indicates good luck. So, absent an improvement in peripherals (less K’s, etc.) the player’s BA will decline.

by OBPplusSLG on Apr 16, 2008 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BABIP is not an indicator of player ability...

but rather whether a player’s performance is reflective of their ability or the result of luck…good or bad. Good line drive rates and speed can cause a player to have a consistently higher BABIP than average…just the same lack of speed and high ground ball/fly ball rates can cause a player to have consistently lower BABIP than average. It’s basically a way of looking at a batter (or pitcher) and seeing if you can expect them to continue at their current level or to adjust one way or the other.

by cardzfanbub on Apr 16, 2008 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

TLR and Kennedy

If Kennedy puts Pujols in the path of the baserunner a couple more times like last night, there will probably be a roster spot open.

by RedbirdRay on Apr 16, 2008 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Plays like last night

Happen dozens of times during the year. It’s not Kennedy fault Pujols has a bad elbow. To think that a couple of errant throws will get you kicked off the team is extreme. Just be grateful Kennedy is not having the Sax Disorder….. now THAT would get you booted.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not extreme

It’s the big picture. Not hitting + poor fielding. Regardless of the condition of the elbow, that type of throw can get guys hurt.

by RedbirdRay on Apr 16, 2008 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who goes down first

Pujols with the real injury or Kennedy’s soon be “fake” injury to create a chance for Hoffpauir? I sound like I’m contradicting myself, and I guess am…. but eh, so what….

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wrong elbow

Pujols hurt elbow is his right elbow (throwing hand) not left elbow. In a way I hope that Kennedy’s bad throwing continues so that TLR/MO see the potential danger to Albert and cut AK.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

mulder

i was trying to reserve judgment on him, but his defensive comments makes me cringe:

“The velocity and stuff, where I’m at it fluctuates at times,” said Mulder, who struck out a batter. “It’s a shoulder, man. You’re going to have some good days and bad days. It’s just all about making pitches, not about velocity.”

what worries me was the negative effect that his terrible outing had on the club last year. there was this palpable build-up and let-down every time he took the mound.

I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Apr 16, 2008 10:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

over analysis

I think that we are really trying to predict way to far into the future with this guy. It is a rehab start, he threw strikes, and he got outs. It was against weak competition, but he is early in the rehab. Of course he will have good days and bad days – it is rehab. I don’t view those comments as negative or defensive.

And I don’t think that the MLB team is sitting on pins and needles waiting for his return. He was viewed last year as a savior becuase the team was terrible – any reason for hope they (and we) had to grasp at. Right now things are going well for the big league club, so his return isn’t as critical. So if he comes up slowly, we should know whether he can contribute before he ever pitches in a MLB game. But we can’t determine that now. Give it a couple of weeks before we write him off or present him with the Cy Young award.

by cdb on Apr 16, 2008 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone else noticed this?

Knowing the squeeze sign was on, Kennedy broke for home. Thinking it wasn’t, Cesar Izturis lined to pitcher David Riske and Kennedy had to scramble back to third. But Schumaker knocked in his second run with a double to right.

Come on Izturis. You need to be able to at least catch the signal.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/5DA6306AE7B4D0C38625742D00159FF7?OpenDocument

by Evilfrog on Apr 16, 2008 10:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if it was obvious enough

to be noted in the p-d story, you know tony will take care of it.

go cards, o's, and phillies.

...boiler up.

by moboiler on Apr 16, 2008 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That kind of thing could get a guy killed

the 3rd basemen was WAAAY in and Kennedy was already half way down the line by the time Izturis made contact. He could have just as easily pulled that ball and drilled Kennedy in the face.

Of all the signs to miss, suicide squeeze is the worst for health concerns.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but it was Cesar Izturis hitting

I’d think the pitchers are in about as much danger on every pitch really they’re 52 feet away on one leg wearing a hat not a helmet. Maybe a guy coming down the line is in more but not significantly so I’d imagine.

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hitting L

OF course with a RH pitcher on the mound Izturis was hitting Left Handed and if he pulled the ball it would be up the first base line.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah,

like he “took care of IZ” when he stunk it up for most of the spring?

if it was Ryan, you know Tony would take care of it. but with IZ, i doubt it. anytime any one has said bad things about him Tony has jumped down their throat for dare implying he had done anything wrong. for whatever reason, Tony is really protective of him. and i have no idea why.

i agree with Hardcore. thats the worst sign to miss when a players health is on the line.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Apr 16, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clement

seems to have disappeared from all commentary on rehab pitchers. Anyone heard anything? Weren’t we told he would be ready for the opening of the season? And wasn’t he criticized in Boston for not pitching last September? The signs seem to be pointing to his being completely done.

by vinniefromjersey on Apr 16, 2008 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

leach

used a picture of him on stlcardinals.com when he wrote about rehabbing starters this week’s mailbag… i dont believe that he mentioned the status of clement, but the fact that leach used the picture means to me that clement is still working.

by krippledmaster on Apr 16, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DG & Carp

Mentioned him in the Bird Land this morning. Did not elaborate though. carp said he that Matt was coming around, but Mark was doing really well.

by Paducah Greg on Apr 16, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I saw that quote from Carp.

Q: Seen Matt throw at all?
Carpenter: Looked like he was making progress. Mark looked like he was making really good progress.

Kind of damning with faint praise.

I’m simply not holding my breath on Clement.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Apr 16, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

could not agree more

Mildew will not be a positive addition to the Cardinals this season, or next for that matter. and anyone expecting Carp to be good if & when he pitches this season is fooling themselves as well. you don’t come back less than a year removed from TJ & are Cy Young when you take the mound. that just doesn’t happen.

i’m pleasantly surprised about their start. there’s a nice energy about this seasons club. it’s nice to enjoy the games again. i hope they can keep it going all season long. but like you said Lboros, it’s early.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Apr 16, 2008 11:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The thing about Carp and Mulder

is that they don’t need to pitch like Cy Young to improve the team. They just need to pitch better than Looper and Wellemeyer USUALLY pitch (I know they are both of to good starts)

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Spring will be back Sunday

who goes down? Surely you can’t send down K-Mac, can you? Next out would be Villone but then we’re down to 1 lefty in the pen. TJ is still a few weeks away… and geez who goes down when him and Mulder get back?

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 11:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

SpringER*

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds like Reyes

will probably go then.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

prediction???

I tend to agree – Reyes will go – the question is where? Trade? AAA? If AAA, does he go back to being a starter? Haven’t heard any trade buzz, though it seems that is still likely.

I generally don’t like these sort of dramas, but for some reason the guy is just compelling…..

by cdb on Apr 16, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope he isn't traded or demoted

not suprisingly, he has been better than McClellen but has recieved half the fanfare from the TV, radio, newspaper guys more than likely for two reasons 1)he’s not the ‘local’ story and 2) he’s been tagged by LaDuncan as trade meat.

We are going to regret letting Reyes go.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indians need bullpen help

Only guy I like on the Indians is G. Sizemore. Seems like a good #4 hitter.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Asdrubal Cabrera at 2B would be a good option

He got lauded for his defense at the minor league level, plus he’s young and he can hit a bit, which is a marked improvement over anything we’ve got.

"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz

by taiko on Apr 16, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they have a number of very talented MI prospects

as well, blocked by Cabrera and Peralta. Josh Rodriguez or Jared Goedert both have 20HR potential with good to excellent defense. They are a couple of years away, but they are better than anything in our system.

The Indians are also incredibly weak in the outfield, like “skip would improve their corner OF OPS significantly” kind of weak, so it’d seem like we could match up well with them for a trade.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on Apr 16, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if we keep winning...

you think we are going to sell?

by UNCDubya on Apr 16, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

depends what you mean by "sell"

If we could trade {mather or skip} and {franklin or TJ or Reyes} for a guy like Rodriguez who could potentially give us 6 cost-controlled years of .750 OPS and above-average defense at second, I think we’d be crazy not to. We have a need for MI’s, and a surplus at the minor league level in relief pitching and OF bats, and they have a surplus in middle infield bats and a huge deficit at the major league level in both OF and RP.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on Apr 16, 2008 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anthony

His stuff last night had some Giddyup.

Counsell = Overmatched

Here's the deal, I'm the best there is, plain and simple, I mean I wake up every morning and I kiss excellence, and nobody can hang with my stuff, uh, you know I'm just a, just a big hairy American winning machine.....

by Schnake on Apr 16, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

its because

Hes new. No conspiracy. We talked about Anthony all the time when he first came up—of course some still can’t quit talking about Anthony :)

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 16, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Higher Leverage

Or it could be that KMac is being used in much higher leverage situations and succeeding.

KMac’s LI for 2008 = 1.56

Reyes = 1.34

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not including yesterday

BTW this does not include yesterdays game which would skew the results further in favor of KMac.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

when did LaDuncan tag ARey as trade bait?

Did I miss something?

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Um....you're kidding, right?

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Apr 16, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Braves?

Looks like the Braves could use some relief help. Maybe we could put together a trade that would net us Brent Lillibridge since Escobar is blocking him at the big league level right now.

by roarke on Apr 16, 2008 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

three days

in a row of a trade proposal for Lillibridge and I still don’t understand how he is any better than Hoffpauer – who cost us nothing…..

by cdb on Apr 16, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

I haven’t been reading the comments recently (too much actual work), so I didn’t realize this topic has been already discussed.

To answer your question, though: I don’t think he has to be ‘better’ than Hoff to be valuable to our organization. Our youth at MI is limited to Hoff and Ryan, neither of whom have proven that they are capable of holding down a MI position full time in the big leagues. If we could add Lillibridge (who also has a better minor league pedigree than either Hoff or Ryan) to the system, then we would have more young talent to vie for a MI job. We have a surplus in some positions (right handed relief pitchers, old mediocre starters, and young OF) and a need in others, middle infield most prominently. Adding Lillibridge gives us more depth and options than we have currently.

by roarke on Apr 16, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great minds think alike

I posted it yesterday. Correct me if I’m wrong but can’t Hoff only play 2B. Lillibridge can play SS, 2B and 3B. The Braves even think he can play center field. I like the idea having a number of young middle infielders to push each other like we have this year with the outfield.

"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin

by That's a Winner on Apr 16, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Echoing my point

When I brought up this point in the 40 acres discussion no one seemed to notice.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good points

Depth at second base is always good. But depth at pitching is also always good. Depth in the outfield is also always good. We would be trading depth for depth. I don’t think that our pitching depth is THAT great right now (though it could be by mid-season if all goes well).

And regarding versatility, we have a Miles and a Ryan that are also very versatile, and we frequently hear complaints that this versitility results in a ‘jack of all trades, master of none’ phenomenon. Ryan can play 2nd, 3rd, or short. I think what we need is a geniuine, bone fide, born to be a second baseman. Preferrably with a better bat than Kennedy.

So I guess that I am kind of playing devils advocate – you all present good arguments, but I still am not sure that this guy has demonstrated the potential to be THAT GUY.

by cdb on Apr 16, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I noticed it indakind

and agreed, just didn’t comment

by ridgesee on Apr 16, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If not Lillibridge

I’d see what it’d take to pry Steve Evarts loose. He and Additon would make a superb pair of lefties at Quad Cities.

by liam on Apr 16, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes and Mac

are off limits I think. MO wants Reyes there (till traded?) and LaRussa says Mac is staying. Flores is staying as he’ll be the only lefty after Villone get’s sent down. Mo is going to have to do something soon.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

Villone will go. I don’t see how we need two lefties—Villone never pitches. At least I HOPE it’s Villone.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 16, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1 ... I tend to agree with you ...

For all the trash talk of LaRussa/Reyes, Tony seems to be using him … a lot … and with very postive results … Tony is a rewarder of results … Villone is not getting many appearances … plus, he seemed to really piss off Tony the other night when he gave up the late inning run … I think Villone will go down, temporarily at least … at least until they trade Anthony … if that’s what they’re going to do … but man, I hope the DON’T …

You know, right now, if Izzy went down with an injury, Reyes would be my first choice to take his place … let him do a Wainwright for awhile … I love the increased velocity …

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Apr 16, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

his high heat

last night looked unhittable, i was freakin stoked

by UNCDubya on Apr 16, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

glad to see

I wasn’t the only person liking Reyes as the closer

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If the Cards are out of it around the trade deadline

Which I don’t they will be, mind you, but it’s possible—do they see if Izzy will go to a contender? The Indians come to mind, if they haven’t resolved their situation at that point. At that point Reyes or someone would have to close, unless they were ready to try Chris Perez.

by mojowo11 on Apr 16, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think..

Reyes is getting shopped right now.

He’s questionably been put into the bullpen against managers decree.

He’s building trade value in low leverage situations by looking exceptional.

He’s going to be billed as a solid relief (short term power, long relief outings) with potential for starting in desperate need/future plans.

Last years woes look awfully far back when these outings keep getting stacked up together.

Needless to say, I feel that he’s in our lineup as a show and tell.

Problem as, he may have a niche we may regret losing.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 16, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was hinted the same thing when the team called up

Skippy last year before calling up Rick but yet, here we are..Skip still around.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which could be a number of things

No reasonable offers.

Jimmy thought to be around this season

Skip impressed

Mo isn’t Walt

I like having Skip around though, for now, I’m sold.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 16, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strauss

says that Phillie has been following us across our road trip watching Reyes. So there could be something to the grocery shelf concept happening.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 16, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They had better not. There is absolutely no way he should be sent to AAA.

They will never let him start for this team. Never. To me that is going to cost this organization. He has pitched well enough that Mr. LaRussa and Mr. Duncan needs to seriously reevaluate their position on him. He has shown steady improvement all spring, and every time he steps on the mound since the season started. And if they can’t see that Mr. Mozeliak needs to schedule them both for an eye examination.

He has done everything he can to turn himself around, and been the ultimate professional through it all. That’s what kills me. His new team is going to get something really worth having…....

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Apr 16, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No to AAA

But all of his recent of his success has come when he’s in the relief role. I think the other bullpen guys were right (quotes for Post-Dispatch) when they said he was better there. I’m not convinced he’s done anything to improve his potential as a starter.

Just leave him in a relief role where he can go all out, throw his FB as hard as he can and not worry about setting guys up for future at bats.

by birdo rojo on Apr 16, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, but I want him back in the starting rotation.

They only have him here instead of AAA because Mr. Mozeliak insisted. It’s great his teammates say what they say. They don’t get to make the decision.

If they were doing this to get him right for another attempt at starting, I’m for it.That isn’t going to happen. Mr. Duncan will never, ever, take another look. He’s made up his mind, damnit!

AAA will stop in its tracks what he’s done so far and totally devalue him for trade. It’s a small sample size, I know. But it’s been exciting watching the improvements he’s made. (At least for me.)

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Apr 16, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do agree with you. 100%

by cdb on Apr 16, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes Thompson, & McClellen

We need the guys above. They can get 4-9 outs if needed, this is especially as we bring back these injured pitchers. They are unlikely to go 6+ innings.

Can you imagine Piniero and Mulder pitching back to back? Our BP would pitch 8 innings minimum in two days.

Here's the deal, I'm the best there is, plain and simple, I mean I wake up every morning and I kiss excellence, and nobody can hang with my stuff, uh, you know I'm just a, just a big hairy American winning machine.....

by Schnake on Apr 16, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

side note....

Does anyone even notice when you misspell Piniero/Pineiro/Penarrow

Here's the deal, I'm the best there is, plain and simple, I mean I wake up every morning and I kiss excellence, and nobody can hang with my stuff, uh, you know I'm just a, just a big hairy American winning machine.....

by Schnake on Apr 16, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I notice...

But I guess I’m used to it by now.

*Piñeiro

by Phizzle on Apr 16, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That Franklin contract just gets worse and worse...

Reyes is throwing cheddar, sending him away makes this team worse.

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Franklin has been a great set-up man for us.

What more do you want from him?

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

great...as in lucky

BABIP last year against Franklin was .253. That is unsustainable. When Franklin starts missing more bats then I will call him great.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BABIP SCHMABIP

Good is good… you’re gonna dislike a guy just because some wacko sabermetric stat tells you to then go ahead. He does his job and he does it well.

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't dislike Franklin

I just don’t think he will be able to sustain the success he’s had. BABIP is fairly constant for all pitchers. When someone has a period of time when they suppress BABIP it is usually chance. I would love for Franklin to remain this “good”. I just think that is wishful thinking.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

this isn't really true

BABIP varies wildly between pitchers. A given pitcher tends to regress back to his personal mean, not the league average mean. This is the opposite of the batter BABIP; batters tend to regress to the league averages. Franklins career BABIP is .277, so while .253 is “low”, it’s only slightly low. He’s at .244 this year, which is probably “too” low, but he has sustained numbers lower than that for a season before.

The main reason for this, imho, pitchers have significant control over the counts they work in. If you look at the BABIP splits, BABIP is much high on 2-0 pitches than on 0-2 pitches.

Franklins FIP this year has been 3.2, BTW.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on Apr 16, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FIP is dependent on home runs and he doesn't have nearly enough innings for that to be relevant

As soon as he gives up one bomb the FIP will probably go way too high. It’ll almost have to get better, but he’s absolutely not going to succeed with a his current k and bb rates.

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

from Tango's wiki:

“For a pitcher, seasonal BABIP is a largely unreliable measure of his skill. In order for this metric to do a good job in measuring his skill, you need several seasons worth of data.

This leads to the myth that a pitcher’s skill in hit prevention is mostly the product of luck: we can’t see year-to-year consistency in the metric as the noise overwhelms the signal. But, as we increase the number of years, the signal can finally match the noise.” source

Elsewhere, he states that it takes about 3700 balls in play to be more than 50% significant. Franklin has 3413 BIP in his career with a BABIP of .277 that is well below the average; he’s very close to being proven to have at least some skill in hit prevention on BABIP.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on Apr 16, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Relief vs Starter

So even though I know it will shrink the sample sizes some more, what is his career BABIP in relief and starting? I am wondering if he gets a lower BABIP on the pitches he uses as a reliever versus the ones he uses as a starter.

by StLHugo on Apr 16, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the data is here

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1076&;position=P

I don’t know where you’d get starter-reliever splits. probably have to d/l the splits from B-R and then build a spreadsheet to calculate BABIP.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on Apr 16, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I stand corrected

Thanks for the info. This lessens the amount of regression that I expect from him. He’s still appears to be getting somewhat lucky but not as lucky as I had thought.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

%50 significant

I may be wrong here, but usually you would want at least 90% significant rate to “prove” that something was correct, right? Of course that’s proving a null hypothesis void, etc…......

by eglasier on Apr 16, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

significance is probably the wrong word

I’m an aero geek, not a statistician, and it’s been a long time since taking a stats class so i am almost certainly misusing the vocabulary. The idea is that all performance has a component of skill (signal) and a component of luck (noise) and the higher the sample size, the better job you can do of identifying whether you are actually seeing luck or skill. By knowing the standard deviation of the population you can determine how large the sample size needs to be (IE, 3700) before you’ve identified the signal.

Anyway the regression to the mean wikipedia entry does a much better job of explaining it than I could do.

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on Apr 16, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wait a minute...

you’re an “aero geek”... clearly from California… like baseball… and you visit a blog, so you obviously can’t be that old…

SleepyCA, you’re secretly Brian Barton aren’t you. admit it!

by mattybobo on Apr 16, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

heh

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i wish...

And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...

by SleepyCA on Apr 16, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh well...

if you were Brian Barton I totally would have kept your identity a secret in exchange for letting me hang out with you. it was worth a try.

by mattybobo on Apr 16, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea,

I see what you mean. I’ve had to use all this stuff in econ. grad school but have never applied them to baseball but would like to some day.

by eglasier on Apr 16, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry

that was supposed to be a reply to SleepCA, crap

by eglasier on Apr 16, 2008 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Wacko"="I don't understand and don't want to I know better than people who've actually researched this"

He’s gotten lit in like half his outings….the balls just happen to go right at people so far.

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Call my oldfashioned

but my favorite “stat” is personal observation. And what I observe is Ryan Franklin going out there and setting up Izzy night in and night out.

We might not all agree on Franklin being “good” but I think we can all agree that he is “successful.” After all, isn’t that what it’s all about?

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not debating his success

All I’m debating is whether or not it will continue. Given his peripheral statistics I don’t think there is much evidence to conclude that he will continue to be this successful.

As far as observation goes. I see a pitcher who gives up a lot of hard hit balls. The fact that fo far they have found gloves does not mean that as a fan I shouldn’t be alarmed by the hard contact that opposing hitters are making off him.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can someone explain

to me all the +1 business?

by paposse on Apr 16, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just means you agree with the comment.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One thing BABIP

and all those other sabermetric stats don’t factor in is that PLAYERS ACTUALLY HAVE THE ABILITY TO GET BETTER! Franklin has been pretty bad in his career but he’s been good since he’s put on a Cardinal uniform.

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think

there have been many players not named bonds who have actually improved past age 35. It seems more likely that he has had a great deal of luck, as suggested by the unusually low BABIP.

by jeff_abs on Apr 16, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

clemons?

i take your signatures and use them as away messages

by ihavebadknees on Apr 16, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Again you have no idea what you're talking about re: BABIP

BABIP is (basically) not a skill. You don’t “improve” or regress. Terrible pitchers and incredible pitchers fall within a range of batted ball in play hits .275-.315 with pretty much 90% of everyone .280-.300. Everyone. Unless you think Franklin is the one guy in the major leagues who has real control and ability to stay at .244 as a true talent level, he’s going to regress and it’ll have nothing to do with his skill/talent/stuff changing. He’s going to get less lucky it’s going to happen. It’s not a knock against him, he just will not maintain this level of success.

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So when will he start being "normal?"

because we’re going on 1 full season and 1 month now…

And yes, I am relatively clueless about BABIP but that is by choice.

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"I choose to remain clueless about something that is predictive and well researched"

That makes sense. Step back a second: you are admitting ignorance. You don’t even know what it is you’re debating and you are bashing it.

When will he return to normal? Well it should happen every time out but there’s random, emphasized random, variances in these things. How about this, I’ll bet you he finished about .260 BABIP by the end of the year, wanna take that bet?

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not bashing it

This healthy discussion is slowly fading due to your insults.

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"some wacko sabermetric stat"=bashing

And yes, I’m going to go ahead and insult “but that is by choice” because that is admitting ignorance. I’m not a fan of such things.

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So I'm ignorant

because I choose not to learn the ins and outs of something your fond of?

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hit send too fast.

Eerily similar to those creepy old men who hang around campus handing out bibles and trying to force religion on me. When I pass by then they shout out things about me being ignorant as well…

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is this argument

worth continuing?

I don’t see it going anywhere productive.

by liam on Apr 16, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You all need a time out?

Maybe take a look at the community guidelines. Getting a little rough here, boys and girls…..

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Apr 16, 2008 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"by choice"

-1

by mattybobo on Apr 16, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

"my favorite stat is personal observation"

I like that; a man worth listening to.

by ridgesee on Apr 16, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Apr 16, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I got some Franklin stats for you

How about 44 Ks and 11BBs in 80 Innings pitched last year. How about a WHIP of 1.01 and an opponent OPS of .58. He gave up 8 HRs out of 317 PA – that’s 1 per 40 batters.

Fine he may be lucky in that not many grounders are getting through as usual but those overall numbers regarding opponent power and his control are hard to beat.

by enoscountry on Apr 16, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

those stats

aren’t “cool enough”

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Therein lies the rub

Look at the stats you just gave, 44Ks in 80 IP. He relies very heavily on his defense. This makes him a much better candidate for long relief or starting where a single mistake (even if it is not your fault) will most likely not lose a game. Franklin simply does not have the proper stuff for his current role.

I am not sayin that Franklin is not a good pitcher or even that the contract extension the Cards gave him is a bad one (in fact I think it is a very reasonable deal). I just think he is miscast as a setup reliever.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Contact

you’re right that he relies more on the defense than other pitchers. But the slugging numbers and walk rates I gave are comparable to other top setup men last year (Okajima, Shields, Bettancourt).

I would need to know the rate of the defense screw ups to really make an evaluation compared to other possible setup men. Everything is a tradeoff – he may not K much but he doesn’t give up big hits either. If there’s another pitcher with a higher K rate but who screws up more often and allows more BBs or HRs than it may not be worth it.

by enoscountry on Apr 16, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Significance.

I have studied statistics a bit in college, and I see your point about Franklin’s stats regressing to the mean. However, that being said, I completely agree with Enos and STL here.

While it is true that, given a large enough sample size, all things will even out, that is not an accurate predictor of results in the immediate future. There are just too many variabilites in baseball. It is NOT a coin-flip. Questions like “Did he get a good night’s sleep last night? Is he fighting with his girlfriend? Is he hurt?” and a myriad of others have far more effect on a person’s performance than their supposed overdue regression to the mean.

We can extrapolate all kinds of predictors, such as “replacement level” and “mean BABIP” if given a large enough sample size, but simply having a large sample size does not predict results in the future. BTW, I love replacement level. Is that the same as having a ghost runner?

Joker, as for what you said referencing the statistical bell curve of BABIP, if I am a person of reasonable inteligence that performs well above average on a test, does that mean that I am bound to get dumber? Or maybe it means I have figured out a way to get more out of my abilities. Because the average first baseman in the league hits .283 with 30 dingers (totally made up numbers), does that mean we should expect Pujols to drop any time now.

Don’t get me wrong, I really do appreciate what you are saying, but simply because a pitcher’s high gb rate and low so rate would LEND itself to certain results, that does not mean that Franklin will trend that direction as an individual. I think you are mis-applying the statistical trend. Franklin, as evidenced, has consistently bucked the trend of the average MLB pitcher for a long time now. Who is to say that he won’t continue?

Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.

by Eckstreem on Apr 16, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

taking a test involves a measurable skill

whereas the amount of skill involved in controlling BABIP is very limited —- that’s the difference. pitchers have many measurable, repeatable skills — ability to throw strikes, induce swing / misses, induce weak contact, avoid homeruns, etc etc. what’s not repeatable is the ability to make hitters hit the ball at the defense 76 percent of the time, as franklin is doing. we know it’s not repeatable because no pitcher in history has repeated that skill for any length of time. and i don’t think franklin is going to be the first.

let’s put this in other terms: franklin currently has a 1.00 ERA. you probably wouldn’t argue with the notion that he’s likely to end up with an ERA closer to 4.00 than to 1.00 — very few pitchers can maintain a 1.00 ERA, or anything close to it, over a full season. but that’s just another form of regression to the mean.

by lboros on Apr 16, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sell high

I think Franklin is a perfect sell high candidate. The Cards have a myriad of options to fill his setup reliever role: Springer, McClellan, Reyes, Motte, Perez. Furthermore, Franklin offers the versatility to start for any team he might be traded to. His stats are as good as they are ever going to be. He is on a friendly contract, 2.25m in 08, 2.5m in 2009, with a club option for 2.75m in 2010. I would love to see the Cards sell high on him and return a Lillibridge or Jed Lowrie (say Bryan Anderson + Franklin for Lowrie and Craig Hansen).

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thank you

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is not to say

he doesn’t have other skills that are repeatable or that his low BABIP is what is solely driving his success.

by enoscountry on Apr 16, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's what I'm sayin

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does it have to be a pitcher?

Really, we could send down Rico. It would leave us with Miles as the backup 3B…yikes!....and Wainwright as an emergency PHer (or force TLR to use them more sparingly then he usually does). But, it would allow us to keep Thompson, Reyes and KMac.

by StLHugo on Apr 16, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only makes sense

if the staff has worries that the bullpen will be overworked during the next month or two. With all these injured arms, it is a real concern. Hate to lose Rico, though…. but it very well may happen.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rico sent out for Ryan

I think Rico will be sent down when B Ryan comes back.

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

substitute "when" with "if"

Ryan’s not doing so well in Florida.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As if Rico has been stellar

Ryan has proven he can hit and play defense at the ML level. TLR is not going to forget that. It’s not as if Rico is tearing it up either. Rico is currently hitting .200 (2-10 w/2 BB).

by indakind on Apr 16, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But...but...but

Rico has an OBP 111 points higher than Miles, who has 0 walks in nearly 3x the plate appearances! Maybe we should send Miles down!

(Sorry. Couldn’t resist having fun with the small samples…)

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Apr 16, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes Mechanics.

Is it just me or is Reyes keeping his front shoulder closed more than he did last year?
The next time he gets into a game, watch his front (left) shoulder & see if it’s more closed off to the hitter than it was last year.
Also it looks like he’s keeping his hips closed longer than he did last year.
Please tell me if I’m seeing things or if maybe you have noticed the same….
Could this be the added 5 MPH that was missing?
Just a thought. Sorry to bring Him up again…
Boomer.

by glamboomer on Apr 16, 2008 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

SHHH!

Duncan might hear you and want to change it, AGAIN. :)

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You've seen it too?!?!?

I’m not complete crazy?
By the way, “Boomer” was the moniker given to me by my father when he sang “Boomer Sooner” after I was born.
Boomer.

by glamboomer on Apr 16, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Informed sources

here on this board have telling us (that means me too) for two years that LaDunc screwed up his mechanics. Being how different he pitches from the bull pen says they are indeed right. Kudos to MO for forcing Reyes to be on the roster.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I noticed that in his first appearance this year first pitch I'm trying to get video of it

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you can find it...

I’d love to see it.. That would be wonderful.
I’ve got MLB.TV so I can watch but I can’t post anything from there…
Ugh.
Stupid copyrights..
Boomer.

by glamboomer on Apr 16, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sooner!

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ehh nevermind, you can sorta see it but the angles are too different and picture too small on the Giants game

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah ... he's pitching like he wants ..

and getting results … back to his old self … I hope it chaffes senior Duncan’s arse to no end …

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Apr 16, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

honestly

How childish is this stuff? Do you people act like this at your work? Put personal agendas before success?

Duncan wants to win. LaRussa wants to win. I highly doubt they want Reyes to fail just so they look “right”. Or when he does well they get pissed. That makes absolutely no sense.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 16, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's see...

when a manager has refused to accept my idea and forced me to go with theirs. Then when the time comes that I get to use my idea and it works much better than theirs…believe it or not I find personal satisfaction in that. I can also say that if the manager were someone whose been with the company quite a long time and thought their way was the only way…they probably would hope that I would fail doing it my way. Call it childish if you will.

by cardzfanbub on Apr 16, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I trust the batters over the coaches.

If the batters are smashing his stuff its not good, I don’t care what duncan has to say. On the other hand when he pitches his way the batters have yet to do much with it.

Yet duncan cannot accept that. The guy is paid tons of money and he is letting his ego and stubborness get in the way of getting the most out of the team.

His job is to make Reyes the best pitcher he can be, not make him the pitcher he wants him to be.

by DriverZn on Apr 16, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I have yet to see any proof

That Duncan messed with his Mechanics when he was starter. Or that he has nothing to do with the way he is pitching now.

His biggest beef about Reyes pitching when he is starting is not pitching Right handers inside.

by Evilfrog on Apr 16, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was documented

that they altered his mechanics to get him to go longer in games and to throw the 2 seamer.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

then why

Did Reyes struggles come with men on base and in scoring position while he was great when no one was on? Did he pitch “his way” with no one on and got them out and then regressed back to “Duncan’s way” when guys got on?

People continue to belabor this point but that wasn’t Anthony’s problem last year. His problem was getting guys out once men were on base. Look at the numbers.

Last year with RISP Reyes was god awful : .327/.405/.694/1.074
Without RIPS he was really good: .215/.296/.346/.641

Those numbers have absolutely zero to do with Duncan “forcing” him to pitch a certain way. Until there is evidence that Duncan made him pitch differently with RISP than without then I won’t buy into this “Duncan changing him” garbage. The facts just don’t back that up.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 16, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

as Izzy explained Reyes’ success as reliever “he doesn’t have to think.”

A lot of it is in Reyes’ head.

by enoscountry on Apr 16, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's pretty obvious why

2 reasons Reyes struggled with men on base are a result of Duncan’s philosophy.

1 – Need for groundball. In situations with runners on and less than 2 outs, Duncan has always been a proponent of getting the groundball and getting out of the inning rather than wasting pitches trying to strike the next two guys out or settling for two flyouts. 1 pitch = 2 outs is the motto.

2 – A further reduction in his velocity. Common knowledge that alot of starters lose velocity when going to the stretch. Throwing from the stretch reduced the velocity even further on Reyes fastball with the new mechanical tweaks Duncan had put in. So now, the 4 seamer up in the zone that was somewhat more hittable at 92 mph was DEAD MEAT at 89 mph.

Don’t call other people’s arguments garbage.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

It’s garbage to say Duncan “changed” him and the reason he struggled is based SOLELY on Duncan/LaRussa, etc. At what point do Reyes’ struggles actually fall on him? Why is he infallible? Why does he do no wrong?

Again, if you can provide evidence that Duncan’s tinkering caused the negative effects I’ll buy it. It’s amazing—a site with so many stat based guys (which I like) only argues intangible stuff when dealing with Reyes. When the facts and numbers prove otherwise it’s wrong.

So you are saying Duncan let Reyes throw “his way” when no one was on base but made him change once they got on? That just doesn’t make sense.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 16, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This isn't that hard of a concept

and I can’t figure out why you choose to ignore it:

If his mechanics were tinkered with, they aren’t going to magically switch from stretch vs windup. He was able to, however, get away with it with no one on because he had slightly more velocity from the stretch and was able to challenge hitters with his fastball.

When he was in the windup, he lost velocity on the 4-seamer, tended too much to ‘nibbling’ down in the zone and away and got hammered anytime he tried to throw a curveball.

His mechanics were all out of wack for the first time in his career and it seems to coincide with the time the organization attempted to push the 2-seamer on him. Actually, when Dave Duncan attempted to push the 2-seamer on him. He’d go back to Memphis, work with Dyar and be fine.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Data Available to Back Up Hypothesis?

HC,

I think beanocook is not contesting the hypothesis as much as data to test the hypothesis. I think the hypothesis that a major mechnical overhaul would lead to a different result sounds very plausible. But is there some data to further substantiate this? Maybe it is not possible to get good data on this? I am assuming that it is not possible to identify with a high degree of accuracy which AR pitches were 2 vs. 4 seamers? And determine which pitches really hurt him with men on base? Or does anyone know what data would be feasible to test the “2 vs. 4 seam fastball hypothesis”?

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Apr 16, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

somebody did

an in depth video analysis of his delivery last year … anyone know the link?

by jeff_abs on Apr 16, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thats my point

It’s a theory. Is it true? Maybe. But maybe not. I am looking at the actual data. I just tire of people blaming everything on Duncan, Duncan, Duncan. Reyes gets no blame for pitching terribly.

Let’s look at the data we have—that is all I am doing. Is your theory true? Maybe. But why not start with the data first and go from there as opposed to the opposite way?

I know its easier and makes for better fodder to put it all on the big bad wolf Duncan but there could be other reasons right? Like Anthony just not getting it done?

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 16, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes is certainly to blame

I’ve been very critical of Reyes in the past. Everything isn’t Dave Duncan’s fault. However, there have been video comparisions done that have shown that something happened between 2005 and 2007 that altered Reyes mechanics significantly. Dyar Miller was very vocal and very critical of Duncan’s handling of Reyes and guess what happened to him? Promotion. He now handles all the pitching staffs in the organization other than STL.

The major change was the forcing of the 2-seamer on Anthony in the 2006 ST. Was that the only reason Anthony failed? Of course not. He had difficulty with runners on and that is partly gameplanning and mostly on the pitcher himself.

However, I believe mechanics had a big hand in his control issues. Those mechanics began to degrade in 2006.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree with this

Here’s my opinion:

A) Reyes doesn’t have to throw the two seamer now that he’s out of the bullpen-it’s all 4 seamers and sliders. He’s now hitting 95+.

B) Reyes, like other pitchers, throw the ball alot damn harder when he knows he’s pitching 2 innings tops.

C) Reyes is better off as a reliever.

This mechanics stuff is blown out of proportion. From everything I’ve heard (yes, some from the team PT), Duncan knows very little about “mechanics” in its truest form. Why would the Cardinals bring in a guy to teach “classic mechanics” if they have a guru in Dave Duncan? They wouldn’t.

Dunc is a master at giving his pitchers a game plan against the hitter-99% of the time this involves pitching to contact, keeping the ball down, etc. Like it or not, that’s what he does, and it IS successful. The only change he tried to make with anthony is to get him more on top of the ball to get the sink/bite they want with the two-seamer. You and I know that it’ll never work. But where you and I disagree is that “Anthony is fine” when Duncan leaves him alone.

by silent_bob on Apr 16, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't say that Duncan should leave him completely

alone. I think he is great at providing gameplans for pitchers and ways for them to attack batters successfully. However, insistence on him throwing the 2 seamer and the demise of Reyes’ mechanics in a short period of time would have to be a very large coincidence.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's suppose ....

Suppose Reyes thinks “I want to strike the guy out” all the time. That kind of thinking is only good for a starter if he can sustain a high 90’s 4-seam fastball for up to 6 innings.

Suppose Duncan thinks Reyes will never be able to do that, so in order for Reyes to be a successful starter (in his opinion), he wants him to throw the 2-seam fastball low in the zone, the pitch to contact idea that Duncan loves.

Suppose Reyes thinks too much as a starter, always planning. Sucks at it, gives up too many hits. Too much pressure.

Suppose MO says too much time has been spent trying to find a starting pitcher spot for Reyes, stick him in the pen, sink or swim time for Reyes.

LaRussa says “cool”, Duncan says “fine”, Reyes says “At least I have a friend in MO”.

Reyes succeeds.

Maybe the this whole mess could have been avoided had he been in the bullpen from the start or even a part of his career? So do we blame the scouts and evaluators of the minors?

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't find a live link for it now

however, in 2005, the organization tried to get Reyes to throw a 2-seamer to keep the ball down while Miller just wanted him to locate the 4-seamer down in the zone instead of “pushing” the ball and having it sail on him.

Reyes rejected it and kept doing what he was doing. He was dominant in the PCL.

In Spring Training 2006, the Cardinals FORCED the 2-seamer on him and told him to throw it ‘no matter’ the results. He struggled with it pretty badly. They continued to try to get him to throw it over the last 2 years and eventually his mechanics were so out of wack that he couldn’t find homeplate with anything he threw at times.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it was

the PCL. Lots of guys who looked great in the PCL who couldn’t get it done in the majors. That’s not a real good example.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 16, 2008 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's a glib statement

that ignores the fact that Baseball America believed Reyes to be the best pitcher in the Cardinals farm system in 2005 and 2006, ahead of Adam Wainwright. Both went into the 2006 ST trying to win a rotation spot.

Reyes was told to try a new pitch that he had already rejected once before and Wainwright won a spot in the pen. There careers, from there, took extremely different paths.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

But there are hundreds of factors that play into that. Blaming it all on Dave Duncan would be shortsighted, IMO.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 16, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone with the link

I have not seen the analysis done in 2005. So if anyone has a link, I would greatly appreciate it.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Apr 16, 2008 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here is the VEB link

it wasn’t done in 2005. It compared 2005 and 2006.

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2007/3/24/174030/995

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

AR Analysis

Thanks for the link. The link contains a lot of analysis. I will need to take some time to absorb it.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Apr 16, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

that’s not what exactly was shown last year.

Reyes went to his off-speed stuff more but his rate of velocity WENT UP when he threw the fastball with runners on. That would say your #2 point is wrong and that he was going with a 4-seamer and not Duncan’s philosophy.

by enoscountry on Apr 16, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

This stuff becomes self perpetuating nonsense. Just like TLR hates young players. If true, then explain why Wainwright, McClellan, Duncan, Ankiel, Ludwig and Shoemaker are getting so much playing time.

by O'Fallon Park on Apr 16, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ankiel, Ludwig, and Shoemaker...

Aren’t really that young. Infact. They are the oldest 3 out fielders. But our rookie 5th outfielder has started 28% of our games and his pinched hit in a lot more.

by Evilfrog on Apr 16, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

who else is he going to start?

by UNCDubya on Apr 16, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan's advice

Do we know that Duncan has ignored Reyes now that he is in the pen. Reyes new approach could be based on feedback from the coaches as well as teammates.

Either way keep Reyes on the team and pitching once through lineups for maximum benefit to STL.

by ubeddie on Apr 16, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Got to love this team

They have done some crazy things:

Won a W.S. with the worst record ever.
Turned a All Star 3rd Baseman into a All Star Left Fielder into a All Star First Baseman.
Turned a starting pitcher into a outfielder Phenom.
Turned a maligned starting pitcher into a pretty darn good relief pitcher (but the sample size is small.. hearing that phrase a bunch, lately).
Turned a catcher into a hot pitching prospect.

Yep, lot’s to talk about around here.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good one ...

How could you not love this team … We second guess Tony a lot … he does many unconventional things … but anyway you look at, he is one hell of a manager …

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Apr 16, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Some is Tony

But most is just the nature of the “Game”. Some find the pot of gold, some just go quietly into the night thinking “what could have been”. Glad Rico will not have to be the latter.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pujols

was also an All-Star 2B, in that he played at the keystone for the first time in an All-Star game.

by liam on Apr 16, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are correct.

I missed that. Thanks.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone remember?

I thought I remember that Biggio was always mentioned as a 3 position All-Star by commentators…. yet I can only find him playing two positions, c & 2b. It always irked me that Pujols never got mentioned in that same light…. and now, thanks to liam, I now know Pujols played 4 positions. Oh well….

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he played cf too.

Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.

by Eckstreem on Apr 16, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I cannot find him playing CF

in a All Star game though.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see what you are saying.

I think it’s a case of semantics. He was an all-star. He played 3 positions. I don’t know if he played all 3 in all-star games, though.

Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.

by Eckstreem on Apr 16, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he came up as a catcher, was moved to 2nd, then to center when they got Jeff Kent, then back to 2nd.

Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.

by Eckstreem on Apr 16, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope Reyes isn't the one to go.

Reyes looks really good in his role right now. I’d really like to see him stick around in case Pineiro and Mulder don’t work out. At the very least, he’s a good guy to bring out of the pen. Demoting him would be a big shot to his confidence and he hasn’t been good long enough to garner any trade value.

Villone makes the most sense because as beanocook said, he hardly pitches anyway.

Regardless though, Mulder and TJ will be back in a few weeks and another couple of tough decisions will have to be made. I expect a trade to be made before then.

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 12:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Kinney

Has anyone heard if there is any timetable for bringing Josh back?

by paposse on Apr 16, 2008 12:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

mulder injury comarison

You asked the question of someone missing 2 years with an injury or being ineffective and coming back. Doesn’t anyone remember that chris carpenter missed most of the 02 season, was ineffective in what he didn’t miss, and missed the entire 03 season. That’s your 2 year example. I think he came back pretty strong in 04, 05 and 06. Plus that was also a shoulder injury, although I’m not entirely sure if it is the same type of shoulder injury. Anyway, there is an example of success and it resides on our very own cardinals.

by stickman179 on Apr 16, 2008 12:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Yeah, Mulder may be the old college buddy we’ve all out grown, but there is realities everyone seems to dismiss.

By luck of a crap division we happened to be in a division race when he was on the come back last year. The surgery wasn’t a complete success and he had severe control issues and definite fatigue. We took a chance because we had no other options. It didn’t work, period.

Now were in a position where we can hold fort while he actually comes back gradually, but the common thing you read is regret. The facts are..

Welly has issues pitching in deep, which early in the season may not matter, but as the season progresses could be a large factor. As he tires and the bullpen covering him does, it proposes negatives.

Pin did not at all look very good against a very weak team Sunday.

Thompson didn’t look all that great as a reliever.

Looper is half skill and half luck. Yesterdays game could have very well been a different story.

To push total regret having the chance to get Mulder back (who, by all accounts has served us well when healthy) to protect the 4 #4 starters we have is absurd.

Give the guy a break.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 16, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL. Carp came back "pretty strong". Sure he did, and a Lamborgini is "pretty fast".

Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.

by Eckstreem on Apr 16, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hope things are okay, baron...

And nice blip from Carp.

Rasmus or bust.

by Zoop on Apr 16, 2008 1:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Game Preview from stlcardinals.com

Interesting tidbit:

Wainwright has not allowed more than four earned runs in a start since July 25, 2007.

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080416&;content_id=2533678&vkey=news_stl&fext=.jsp&c_id=stl

by bgh on Apr 16, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Anti-jinx: he hasn't thrown an outing with 0 ER since June 13 2007

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm an idiot, August 16th

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Apr 16, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kuiper and Krukow

have been gushing about St. Louis fans for 2 innings now during the Giants/DBacks game. They have barely talked about the game and rather have spent this time talking about how great the fans are.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 4:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i love those

two guys. For my money, the San Fran TV/Radio guys are the best out there.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Apr 16, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just as it oughta be

e'rebuilding mang

by nycbirdo on Apr 16, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

any reason?

was it something that happened last weekend?

by enoscountry on Apr 16, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heck yea!

I was at the game on Friday and Sunday and exhibited all the class and Baseball knowledge that is expected from “The Best Fans In Baseball”!!

When cheese gets its picture taken, what does it say?

by RosevilleRedbird on Apr 16, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they are right… all the players talk about how they like to come to St. Louis and play a game because of fan enthusiasm, knowledge of the game, and just being good peeps.

Ankiel is Jesus!

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Apr 16, 2008 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

seriously,

i know he’s still under the radar, but keep an eye on this brandon webb guy. i think he could turn out to be pretty good.

e'rebuilding mang

by nycbirdo on Apr 16, 2008 4:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

nice

by spants on Apr 16, 2008 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

of course,

he gives up a run as soon as i say it. but still.

e'rebuilding mang

by nycbirdo on Apr 16, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ryan's Hope

FYI, PB played an afternoon game and Ryan finally showed some signs of life. He went 2-3 with a double, walked and scored a run.

by punditmoi on Apr 16, 2008 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cool, my jinx worked!

I earlier posted he wasn’t doing well. Good for him.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's good news

Proud President of the Unofficial Skip Schumaker Fan Club!
(now accepting applications)

by stltrav09 on Apr 16, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But did he take is ritalin?

That, of course, is the most important thing.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mulder's fate is dependent on Lohse.

If Lohse continues to pitch well, Mulder will never pitch here again. I’m sure there are a fair number of scouts watching his every move. It will be more a business decision than anything else. Management will try to unload his salary for a player or even a prospect. They will then be sharing the risk of his potential success or failure with another team. They will then probably look to give Lohse an extension of some sort with those resources.
If he were to come back and make a start, it would only complicate things regardless of his success or failure. He would have to be twice as good as anyone he would replace to justify his salary. Unlikely…... Someone will surely be desperate enough to pay for the risk that his talent and health present. Maybe….....

Westcoastbirdwatcher

by westcoastbirdwatcher on Apr 16, 2008 5:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wait, are you saying Mulder won't pitch for the Cardinals

within the next 30 days because we are going to trade him?

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The clock is running

On all possible transaction. They have to make some moves. If the team is front running, they will bail salary without a doubt. Maybe have to take on a salary in exchange for a hitter in.

Westcoastbirdwatcher

by westcoastbirdwatcher on Apr 16, 2008 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the more likely candidate is Ron Villone

as the Cardinals will eventually have Johnson return. Even if Mulder fails as a starter, he could be used as the LOOGY to replace Villone.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a little pricey for a loogy, no?

e'rebuilding mang

by nycbirdo on Apr 16, 2008 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather pay him to be a Loogy here

than pay him to pitch somewhere else.

Unless it is for a division rival and his shoulder really is toast :D

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Apr 16, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Villone will be first to go

Strauss says Thompson will be the next to be sent down after Villone. He said the club is looking at putting Mulder and then Carp into the pen to help in the healing process….. which looks like where they should have put Pineiro.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 16, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which is really hard to see. Looper’s spot is probably secure, Pin’s and Welly’s spot isn’t set in stone. Of course Adam is fine..

You’d really think they’d bail? Seems to me most of the risk has already happened and now it’s just taking the steps to see results. Which of course, happen within 30 days from now at most.

by AdjustedExpectations on Apr 16, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs