Surprising Results for Lineup Construction

by EABinSTL on Apr 15, 2008 12:41 PM EDT Comment 7 comments

Justin in Arizona (jinaz), who has the best statistically serious blog on the Reds, has recently done a terrific study of the Cincinnati lineup with some very surprising results (e.g., it is not death to have Corey Patterson and his minuscule OBP leading off). Since some of these surprising results might generalize, Redbird fans who are speculating about what lineup would be best for St. Louis--and it looks as though that is everyone here at VEB--might want to check it out.

(This is the first post by someone who has admired VEB just about every day for more than two years. So I want to say thanks to lboros and the thoughtful regular contributors.)

0 recs | Comment 7 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

The key is who is in the lineup

How they stack up in the lineup makes only a fractional difference. Doesn’t stop people, myself included, from talking about who should hit behind Pujols, what to make of the pitcher batting 8th, etc.

The key is who are the 9 bats in%2

by Merry CRasmus on Apr 15, 2008 3:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Error occurred when posting

Wanted to say the key is who are the 9 bats in the lineup. Talking about batting order is trying to get the last drops of juice out of the orange.

by Merry CRasmus on Apr 15, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The order makes more than a fractional difference.

Merry CRasmus is surely right that who the nine guys are matters more than what order they hit in. But one of the surprising results of jinaz’s study is that the order of the same nine guys makes almost four wins’ difference over the course of a season, and that is just between the best and worst of a set of lineups that committed, attentive fans think would be the best to use. Does anyone think of three wins as a “fractional difference?” It’s the difference between playoffs or bust in many seasons.

by EABinSTL on Apr 17, 2008 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cool exercise

we ought to repeat it here

by lboros on Apr 15, 2008 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would totally run all those calculations

but I’m to cheap to buy stuff.

Oh, well, maybe next year

by aNdrOss on Apr 15, 2008 3:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and

maybe we could end this lineup discussion once and for all!

by aNdrOss on Apr 15, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It all looked interesting

But will it help me enjoy my beer while watching the Cards? I just don’t have the brain power to devote to that kind of study….. guess it’s time for another beer…. hic!

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Apr 15, 2008 5:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs