HBP/Batters Faced by Year

by enoscountry on Apr 14, 2008 1:16 PM EDT Comment 9 comments

Can someone explain why Hit-by-Pitch rates (when divided by the total number of batters faced) jump starting around the late 90s? Is there a MLB ruling on shin guards or something that might explain it? For some reason, by 2000 there is one HBP for every 100 batters faced (1% rate) - double the rate of the past 40 years.

HR rates (per hits or ABs) is a significant predictor but this doesn't explain half the jump observed. Using the data I have I don't have pitches per plate appearance (the more pitches you see the more likely you get hit), but dividing HBP by BB (which should show equally higher rates if pitches per PA is a factor) shows the same huge jump.

CLARIFICATION: One possible explanation, and one I'm trying to evaluate, is that Moneyball philosophy increasingly rewarded players for HBP giving them greater incentives to get hit. I want to make sure there's nothing else driving this.

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HBP & Opposite-field HR's

A lot of the recent surge of HBP's is due to a sport-wide realization that it's possible to drive the outside pitch for a HR. So more batters than ever started standing nearly on top of the plate, taking away the inside pitch as a weapon. Combined with MLB's policy of limiting a pitcher's ability to push batters off the plate (a just decision in theory, but flawed in practice) and various padding/armor configurations employed, this has caused HBP rates to skyrocket.
For a better, more thorough discussion, read Bill James' New Historical Baseball Abstract.

That said, the Cubs do deserve my pity, but never my support.

by Solanus on Apr 14, 2008 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I blame

Biggio and Eckstien.

by Evilfrog on Apr 14, 2008 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Charlie Lau hitting method

Starting in the early 1980's, the Charlie Lau hitting method became fairly prevalent among big league hitters and two of the guys who employed it, Mattingly and Boggs, were very successful.

The basic strategy of this method is to dive in towards the plate with your stride so you can angle your body in such a way that the outside pitch can be driven to the opposite field, while keeping the hands back to allow you to still get the fat part of the bat on an inside pitch. Since hitters are diving towards the plate, they tend to get hit more on balls that get away from a pitcher inside.

Certain pitchers of this era (Clemens, Pedro Martinez) had enough stones to punish certain guys for diving in on them by throwing up and in and plunking guys above the letters as a warning to stay off the inside corner. One famous case was when Pedro was pitching for Boston and plunked Jeter and Bernie Williams in the same game in nearly the same fashion. I remember defending Pedro because that is his only recourse against those guys taking away the inside portion of the plate and forcing Martinez to throw to the middle/away portions of the plate, allowing them to extend their arms and drive the ball. Jeter has been one of the more effective hitters employing this technique simply because he is so good at inside-outing the ball on the inner half for bloop hits to the opposite field. The method allows him better plate coverage than he otherwise would have.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Apr 14, 2008 2:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks

and also to Solanus. I'll look up more on the growth in popularity of the Charlie Lau method and also look into the Bill James description suggested by Solanus.

I still don't buy that this is driving it all. First the real spike comes after 1990, before that rates are still within their past maximum. Secondly, perhaps with more/better arm and leg guards this could speed up the growth, but those guards couldn't have been that bad before 1990, could they have?

by enoscountry on Apr 14, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh...

and the use of body armor (unheard of before 1980) has surely helped this number to rise since players aren't near as afraid to get hit with plastic covering up all of their tender parts....

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Apr 14, 2008 2:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have to...

...Echo fourstick's comments. I don't feel like pitchers throw inside enough. The way I was taught to pitch is that there are four sides to the strike zone, and if you know how to use all four effectively then you'll be pretty tough. Granted, I was never an MLB caliber pitcher, but still. When a hitter can dive over the plate and hammer an outside fastball, then there is something wrong.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Apr 14, 2008 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bingo on all the above, even a near miss today can erupt into a brawl or a 3 year vendetta. In the days before, guys got up and went to first because it was part of the game to take one for the team as long as it was elbows down.

Pitching in on the hands needs to be something every pitcher does (that can control it). That stops some of the diving w/o creating as much retalitation.

by cardschinmusic on Apr 14, 2008 2:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The upward spike

also coincides with the introduction of the DH, although I haven't looked at the numbers on a league vs. league basis.

"It ain't braggin' if you can back it up." - Dizzy Dean

by DizzyDean17 on Apr 14, 2008 3:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

my theory

Is that it seems like a lot more people are willing to lean in and take one for the team. I don't think that's the sole reason but maybe one of the major factors.

It seemed like that "Dusty Baker" theory of hitting was more prevalent in the past. I.E. "They call it hitting, not walking."

Maybe with a higher premium placed on OBP at an organization level, players are a little more willing to stand in to take a HBP than previously.

by Merry CRasmus on Apr 14, 2008 4:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs