40 Acres and a Power Bat
by Hardcore Legend
on Apr 13, 2008 7:39 PM EDT
304 comments
As many of you have probably noticed, maybe some of you didn’t, we received our annual “We will keep the powder dry if the right ‘type’ player comes along” promise. I think it is safe to say that either Mo was a very good student under Walt when it comes to these statements being used to keep Tony and the fans complacent or it’s a directive from DeWitt in order to distract from the giant lake in LF.
This year, however, it becomes slightly more imperative for the Cardinals to find an alternative power source to protect Pujols. Chris Duncan is likely to hit Super 2 status after this season, thus boosting his salary probably in the range of $5 M and limiting his value to a Cardinals roster looking for better production/cost ratio in the OF and increases his likelihood of being traded. Troy Glaus, for all his warts, is not a cleanup hitter. Rick Ankiel isn’t the prototypical cleanup hitter either and in an ideal world, would work wonderfully in the #2 spot because of his speed, power and reliance on actually seeing good pitches. Colby Rasmus, at least for the first 3 or 4 seasons of his big league career, will probably be penciled into the leadoff or second slot. A name often times thrown around with him is Grady Sizemore and I think that fits. Later on in his career, he may develop more power as he gets older and the result will be a slot further down in the lineup but for now (this season and next) he’d be best served at the top of the card.
The Cardinals are using the credit they have built up from the Walker acquisition in 2004 to make their case that they will go out and get an ‘impact’ player if one becomes available. The difference in this situation is that the Cardinals aren’t looking for a short term solution to protecting Pujols. When they got Walker, they had enough offense elsewhere for Walker to inflict some damage from in front of Pujols and use his great eye and contact ability to clog the bases in front of The Mang. In the current situation, they need a player to keep pitchers honest about putting Pujols on base.
Before we get to any possible solutions, let’s look at just what an NL cleanup hitter is. According to baseball-reference.com, the National League cleanup hitters averaged .280/.365/.492 in 2007. They hit a homerun every 20 ABs, a double every 17 ABs, and drove in an RBI every 5.7 ABs. Over 500 ABs, that works out to roughly be 25 HRs, 30 2Bs, 88 RBIs. In 2007, that player was Garrett Atkins (.301/.367/.486, 25 HR, 35 Doubles, 111 RBI in 605 ABs).
In 2006, NL cleanup hitters went .279/.375/.505. They hit a homerun every 19 ABs, a double every 16 ABs, and drove in an RBI every 5.6 ABs. Over 500 ABs, that works out to roughly be 26 HRs, 31 2Bs, 90 RBIs. In 2006, that player was Pat Burrell (.258/.388/.505, 29 HR, 24 2B, 95 RBI in 462 ABs).
Now, all this does is shows that if the Cardinals wanted the exact ‘average’ of what cleanup hitter was in each of the past two seasons, this is what it would look like. A better, more in-depth analysis could be done by taking the 2005-2007 totals, averaging them out and then with those averages in hand, sorting through David Pinto’s wonderful tool to see what player most resembles our 3 year average line during that same span. But, for this little exercise, that really isn’t needed as we aren’t debating what ‘IS’ a cleanup hitter but rather what is available if the Cardinals are really looking for one.
With that in mind, the solutions, if any? The Cardinals are pretty well locked up at 3B (no trade clause), 1B and C. They can improve at SS, 2B and any of the OF positions. The likelihood of finding a #4 hitter at a MIF position is very slim. You also have to avoid, in an exercise like this, trying to find the next Ryan Braun. The odds of such a player becoming available so young and so talented just doesn’t happen.
Barry Bonds (FA), 42 yrs, LF – This is the most obvious short term fix. It’s also not a real solution to the protection problem. Bonds would be a great fit for half the season, playing Chris Duncan-level defense while crushing 20+ HRs or clogging the bases in his own right. He carries a ton of baggage, is a less than desirable human being but is also a free agent that costs no one but Bill DeWitt. Tony campaigned for Lamar earlier, but was shot down.
So, from there, you have to look at soon to be Free Agents on teams that may be out of the pennant races:
The Orioles, Giants:
The Baltimore Orioles really have nothing to offer the Cardinals in way of protecting Pujols. What talent they do have is fairly young and years away from free agency. Equally so, the O's and Giants lack any real power threats that could improve this team going forward.
Pat Burrell, (PHI), LF, 31 – Pat Burrell is an intriguing case. His $ 50m contract expires at the end of this year. Burrell has a full no-trade clause and is currently playing for a likely contender. He has had a contentious relationship with the Philadelphia crowd and is an Arkansas native. A move to St. Louis may not be the worst thing for him personally, but what does it do professionally?
Burrell has batted 5th all season protecting another prodigious power hitting 1B. He did so for most of 2007, except for his sensational second half in which he replaced Utley batting 3rd as the Phillies stalked down the Muts. For the Cardinals, Burrell would find himself in a familiar role but in a different slot in the order. Technically, for the double-leadoff Cardinals, he would be in the same situation but things aren’t always that easy. With Burrell, the Cardinals would have a player that traditionally plays very well in the second half (which helps for 2008) but is a free agent at the end of the season (when he turns 32) which does not help the team going forward unless they plan to devote both money and prospects to acquiring Burrell.
Delwyn Young (LAD), LF/2B, 26 – Young is a bit of a mystery. Once a rising star in the Dodger farm system, Young seems to have hit both a wall (offensively) and a ceiling (playing time) the last two years. The Dodgers have a mighty full OF with FA Andrew Jones, young stars in Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier and albatross Juan Pierre. When you are 5th deep at your preferred position and 3rd deep at your backup roles (2B/3B), the odds of you having a job very long are slim.
Young has some power. In the minors, Young had a .512 SLG with 102 HRs in 2706 Abs (1 HR: 26 ABs) but much more impressively, in his 3rd season at AAA, the 25 year old Young connected on 54 doubles. What Young provides, quite frankly, is a younger switch-hitting version of Rick Ankiel. He bested Rick last season in SLG % in the PCL. Young’s doubles were tops in the PCL and he was Top 5 in BA. These are to be somewhat expected for an above average prospect in his 3rd year at a level. But does Young provide that protection factor for Pujols? Probably not although, his MLB Equivalency last year would have been a .492 SLG, ranking him 2nd on the 2007 Cardinals in that category.
Don’t get me wrong, Young is a nice player to have. He’s an everyday player who can be a super-sub, of sorts playing all 3 OF positions and 3 IF positions while batting from both sides. Not only couldn't Tony keep him on the bench due to his versatility but why would Tony want to? He could literally have him change positions every inning and TLR could burn through the entire bench and bullpen in one game if he got a wild streak. The problem is, the Dodgers don’t really HAVE to move him. He is blocked, for sure, but makes league minimum until 2010. He’s got plenty of options left and the Dodgers have made no talk about wanting to deal him.
Jack Cust, (OAK), OF, 29 - Ok, now we are starting to scrape the barrel here. Does Cust really offer an improvement over Duncan? No, he doesn’t. He’s as much a defensive liability in the OF and he carries the baggage of the Mitchell Report with him.
Carl Crawford, (TB), LF, 26 – Crawford is such a pipe dream that I almost feel guilty even typing this. Crawford is where Rasmus hopefully ends up one day. A speedy, leadoff type OF who grows into his body and is moved down in the order to create more runs. Crawford, however, hasn’t moved down THAT far. He has spent time the last few years batting 3rd but for the most part is seen as the Rays #2 hitter. Crawford has yet to hit 20 HRs in a season. He’s yet to drive in over 100 runs in a season. He possesses power but speed is still his game.
Crawford would be a great player to have, but he’d have to increase his HR production to be considered a real threat. Even a player like Bonds, who was of a similar mold as Crawford at age 26, was crushing 25-30 HRs a season. Crawford hits a great deal of doubles and triples, which will score Pujols as good as a HR would but the Cardinals would have to bank on Crawford’s power developing rather quickly. The other caveat for the Cardinals is that the Rays hold two option years on Crawford, 2009 and 2010. They have already picked up his 2009 option. This works well if we acquire him but it also makes it less likely they are willing to deal him.
One thing that works in the Cardinals favor is that Crawford is owed $20 M over the next 2 years, during the same time that Pena is owed $18 M. Those two would account for 50% of the Rays current operating cost during that time span (if the intend to keep their payroll at that high level). Unfortunately, for the Cardinals, the Rays have declined Rocco Baldelli’s option for 2009, thus it looks more likely the Rays intend on holding on to Crawford.
Which leads us to another candidate:
Rocco Baldelli (TB) CF, 26 – Baldelli can’t stay healthy. It’s that simple. If he could, he’s got legit power and above average speed. He has hit down in the order (#3 and #4) and could provide production from a corner OF spot, thus saving him some wear and tear not playing CF anymore. He will become a FA at the end of this season (with his option being declined) and the Rays may be willing to get anything they can for him. He has an odd metabolic deficiency that doesn’t allow his muscles to work properly. Thus, the high injury rate.
Baldelli would be a big risk for the club to count on for any kind of protection for Pujols, however he does offer them a big ceiling should he figure out the metabolism thing and stay healthy.
And this brings me to the final (that I can really think of) and most likely candidate:
Jay Ray Bay (PIT) LF, 29 - If you think Cardinals wish they could bring back the 2004-2006 seasons, so does Jason Raymond Bay. After being called up in May 2004 by the Pirates, Bay had a.929 OPS in 79 games on his way to NL Rookie of the Year. He followed in 2005 with his career best, posting a .961 OPS while hitting 32 HRs, 44 doubles and driving 101 runs. In November of that year he signed a 4 year/$18.5 M deal.
While Bay was pretty good again in 2006 (.928 OPS/35 HR/109 RBIs), he had an awful 2007 season. Many attributed it to some weakness in his shoulder, some questioned his work ethic. He has been known to have lapses in LF defensively often times on sheer focus. In September of this year, Bay will be turning 30 years old. If 2007 was an aberration, then he should still be in his peak offensive years for 3 or 4 more seasons. If 2007 was the beginning of a steady decline, then signing him does very little.
Bay has almost identical splits batting 3rd and 4th in the lineup. Let me rephrase that, he has HIT better batting 4th but has appeared in the two spots almost the same amount of plate appearances. For a player like Jason Bay, he seems like the type that can thrive in a setting in which he doesn’t have to be ‘the man’. One major flaw for Bay is his high number of strikeouts. Would he be nothing more than adding another Troy Glaus? Hard to say. The Pirates will be in a position at mid-season where they will be looking to deal players like Bay (w/one year, 7.5M left on his contract) and Xavier Nady to help restock a pretty shabby farm system. The Pirates have begun to use advanced metrics in evaluating talent and aren’t the same leadership that dealt Aramis Ramirez for a hardy handshake. Tread lightly when dealing with them now.
Pretty depressing, eh? I think this illustrates that what Mozeliak means when he says ‘the right player’ he means ‘when an absolute gift’ falls into our laps. Most teams in the league aren’t looking to deal there big power threats and if they are, those guys are usually ancient. The Blue Jays just locked up Rios long term, the Tigers extended Miguel Cabrera.
Good luck, John.
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Ludwick
Could he swing his way into an everyday player? He always has clutch ABs, and provides decent power. He's aready on our team and can play anywhere in the OF. Doing this could let us trade for one of the other holes in our team; say middle infield. I know everyone is tired of hearing that we should trade Duncan and Reyes it seems like there isn't anyone really beating down our door to acquire these guys so we may have to throw in a guy like Mather or Anderson. Moving an OF would open up a roster spot for Rasmus. Even if we couldn't get a MLB ready infielder I would settle for a no doubt prospect who would be ready for what is supposed to be a promising 2009-2010.
An outfield of Ludwick, Rasmus, and Ankiel would look nice. Next year we could have our new young infielder and not have to deal with Iz2 or AK.
I'm looking for the next Bobby Bonilla?
by showmejoe on
Apr 13, 2008 8:00 PM EDT
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If you are looking to improve MIF
but still looking for a cleanup potential hitter, Delwyn Young would be the one you would target.
The problem is that the Dodgers aren't in need of either pitching or OF'ers. Nor another young catcher.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 13, 2008 8:04 PM EDT
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Do the Dodgers need BP help?
Perhaps Motte for Delywn Young?
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Apr 13, 2008 11:02 PM EDT
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I let that go last night
but that was the reply I was going to make.
+1.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 2:18 PM EDT
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We need LH Bullpen help, not right handed...
well, that is making the very risky assumption that Pineiro will pitch better than he did yesterday and Mulder will be reasonably effective. If those two things come to pass, then you put Thompson and Wellemeyer in the bullpen, and it's fine.
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Apr 14, 2008 2:33 PM EDT
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Nice post
First of all, I'd just like to compliment you on a well thought out, well written post. I haven't been around here very long, but it seems like ever since the format change, there have been a lot of unnecessary and sometimes ridiculous fanposts.
Back to the topic at hand. I think that while the Cards are in need of another "impact" bat, any that might be available would certainly cost the team more than they'd like to spend in prospects. It would go against the new philosophy. Although that wouldn't be the case with Bonds, I would rather not see him in a Cardinal uniform. No argument, just opinion.
While I do see a possible surplus of pitching coming soon in which to deal from, I don't believe any would return a major league bat. A trade involving Duncan or Schumaker to make room for Rasmus likely wouldn't fill the void either. I expect moves to be made between now and July, just nothing major.
by mikeonthecards on
Apr 13, 2008 8:10 PM EDT
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I say
don't go trading pitching, you never have enough healthy arms. I agree with Yogi Bera when he said, "90% of baseball is pitching and the other half is hitting and fielding." Yogi was right.
by ridgesee on
Apr 13, 2008 9:08 PM EDT
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Also I say
forget the clean up hitter. A 2nd baseman who can hit is of greater priority. a good 7th place hitter.
by ridgesee on
Apr 13, 2008 9:13 PM EDT
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Hmmmm
I just don't see Ankiel as a #2 hitter. He's certainly not what you want in an #2 hitter. You want a guy who will get on base for the #3 and #4 hitters, which Ankiel doesn't do (since he doesn't walk much).
Rasmus is probably the ideal #2 hitter, when (or if) he gets called up
Also, based on your average stats for a cleanup hitter, the Cardinals pretty much already have that guy - Chris Duncan. Maybe a few more home runs and a few less doubles, but otherwise, it's pretty close to his career numbers.
by DiscoJer on
Apr 13, 2008 8:34 PM EDT
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Chris Duncan is too vulnerable against LHP
to be considered a legitimate #4 hitter. He's also too much of a defensive liability to be an everyday OF.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 13, 2008 8:38 PM EDT
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I disagree...
about the defense anyway. He might not be good in LF, but LF defense simply does not matter that much. Over the course of the season, he turns what, maybe 15 outs into singles?
He's not good against lefties, but neither are most other lefties. One of your picks, Carl Crawford struggled with Lefties his first few years. Maybe Duncan will learn to hit them better?
I still think he's by far the best choice they have.
by DiscoJer on
Apr 13, 2008 9:02 PM EDT
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He turns far more outs into singles/doubles
How can you discount LF defense by saying that it doesn't matter? Just because a lot f teams are willing to put slugging 1B there, doesn't really mean that those players don't have a negative impact on run prevention. They do. Duncan would cost the team something like 15+ runs if he was an everyday player. he's an atrocious LF. Last year PMR had him short 17 plays (around 14 runs) in limited playing time.
by azruavatar on
Apr 13, 2008 9:50 PM EDT
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Thank you.
The amount he elevates team ERA should be deducted from his offensive production. Crawford, on the other hand is a + defender.
by vinniefromjersey on
Apr 14, 2008 11:07 AM EDT
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Carl Crawford did struggle against LHP
although not at the level Duncan does. Also to factor in, Crawford figured out how to hit LHP 4 years ago, when he was 22.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 13, 2008 9:51 PM EDT
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Heretical idea?
Like the post, Hardcore. Good topic.
How about this: Glaus is better batting #5, Dunc and Ankiel are better batting behind Albert. Ergo, bat Albert cleanup.
Midseason order:
Rasmus
Ankiel
Dunc/Ludwick
AP
Glaus
Molina
AK/Ryan
Pitcher
Izz2/Ryan
by gocards62 on
Apr 13, 2008 9:15 PM EDT
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+1 ... Fill this need from WITHIN the organization ...
I know Tony loves AP in the 3 hole ... and I understand the reasons for it ... but given the composition of this line-up, with the power bats we have with their lefty/righty splits, I don't see why he HAS to stay there ... he is our clean-up hitter ... with well beyond the average numbers HL listed ... I really like the lineup Gocards62 presents, and Skip is fine at lead-off until Rasmus makes the scene in June ...
If we HAVE to go outside the organization ... my vote would be for Jason Bay ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on
Apr 14, 2008 9:57 AM EDT
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Pitcher in 8-hole
you would not need to hit the pitcher 8th if you did this, in fact i would think this would increase the chance of the pitcher coming up in crucial situations with people on base if he was left there.
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon
by nomar34 on
Apr 14, 2008 10:20 AM EDT
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i like albert
in the cleanup spot but 2 and 3 spots are the question. I think ankiel would be better 3rd but the question becomes what to do 2nd. I would put AK/Ryan/Miles in the second spot, i know its not ideal, but duncan and ludwick just dont impress me. I would rather see better runners on top of the lineup than putting all or nothing hitters 3rd. Ankiel will also see great pitches 3rd with pujols hitting cleanup.
HEEE HEHEHE BIG BOY- mike shannon
by plunkem on
Apr 14, 2008 10:42 AM EDT
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Pujols bats in the 1st
You want him to get as many ABs as possible with runners on. That is why he bats 3rd.
by bgh on
Apr 14, 2008 4:59 PM EDT
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Pujols bats with runners on base
Is it more likely that 2 Abs will produce a base runner, or is it more likely that 3 Abs will produce a base runner? It seems like there's a better chance of base runners being on for Albert if there are 3 hitters, rather than 2 hitters, in front of him.
The chances are greater for Albert to hit with the bases empty if he's hitting 3rd in the order than if he's hitting 4th in the order. To put it another way, it's less likely for three hitters in a row to all make outs than it is for two hitters in a row to make outs. So, wouldn't it be better for Albert to hit 4th?
If the main concern is Albert hitting more times in the season, than why not go ahead and hit him 2nd? If the main concern is Albert hitting with men on base, then why not hit him 4th?
The problem with him hitting 4th is that he would hit with the bases empty leading off the 2nd inning if the first 3 hitters all made outs. As is, he hits with the bases empty when 2 consecutive hitters make outs, which I've pointed out is much more likely than the first 3 men all making outs.
Plus, if Albert hits leading off the 4th, there's a greater chance of him scoring runs because you've got the potential of having him on base with no outs and RBI guys coming up. If he hits with the bases empty in the first inning and gets on, you've only got one out left to play with.
Conclusion: Just hit Albert fourth.
by 82Special on
Apr 14, 2008 9:39 PM EDT
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agree with all points
and this is backed up by every lineup study I've seen. the best hitters in the lineup should be #2 and #4. Batting Pujols 3rd probably costs a couple of runs a year at most, but it does cost a couple.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
Apr 14, 2008 10:00 PM EDT
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Personally
I'd rather sacrifice the extra runs that may or may not be there with Albert getting the extra at bats throughout the year in third. Matter in fact, with a player like Albert, those runs may be negated by his extra plate appearances.
by AdjustedExpectations on
Apr 14, 2008 10:03 PM EDT
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even more so with the pitcher batting 8th, which makes him a dual situation guy. More plate appearances, and outside of the first inning someone who's given a chance to have those three batters before him like the traditional clean up.
by AdjustedExpectations on
Apr 14, 2008 10:05 PM EDT
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I love Ludwick batting second
The few times I have seen him in person, he just really seems to fly on the basepaths
by mattyfrommo on
Apr 14, 2008 7:20 PM EDT
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Problem isn't resolved if he's hitting fourth
While I can’t disagree with your arguments for hitting him fourth, I’m not sure it solves our main problem of getting pitched around. Regardless of whatever spot he’s hitting in, if no one is behind him they’ll never give him anything to hit!
by birdo rojo on
Apr 15, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
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Pat the bat is the most intriguing guy on the list.
He is one of the streakest hitters who ever lived and when he's on one of those hot streaks, he'll carry a team for weeks at a time.
For this year there is not much available, but if the Reds don't end up in contention, does Adam Dunn work? He puts up the same walks, homers (40), RBI's year in and year out.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Apr 13, 2008 9:15 PM EDT
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Pat and Dunn
offensively i would love for either of these two to wear the BOB they are both very underrated, by fans anyways....money wise i dont see it happening unfortunately and we have a young (read: cheap) productive outfield already.
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon
by nomar34 on
Apr 14, 2008 10:25 AM EDT
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Forget it Jills
Hardcore went to the trouble to put up this whole elaborate post just to test VEB to see how his next proposal would.
SIGN BARRY BONDS
by ridgesee on
Apr 13, 2008 9:26 PM EDT
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What?
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 13, 2008 9:48 PM EDT
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No. I think he really meant for folks to read it and think about it.
I even was trying to think that maybe J. D. Drew (the hated J. D. Drew!) might be what we are looking for. That bridge is burned, and he's probably better in the 2 spot, but I could see him there.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Apr 13, 2008 9:53 PM EDT
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Two words: Kahlil Greene. Would the Padres go for it?
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Apr 13, 2008 10:04 PM EDT
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depends...
what do the Padres have in terms of young SS's looking to come up to the big leagues? If they have someone waiting on the door step, then maybe, otherwise, they wouldn't deal him.
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Apr 13, 2008 11:05 PM EDT
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Seriously
I don't think we need to target OFs right now. I'm totally satisfied with our OF. But if we could get Greene, that would be huge. Not only is he a solid hitter, but he's even a step up on defense.
But yeah, the questions if IF they would go for it. I remember them shopping him last year -- maybe they will this year as well.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on
Apr 14, 2008 12:07 AM EDT
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This is a great idea
Check out is home/road splits, the guy gets killed by Petco. He could be a star in waiting.
Free Barry Bonds
by JI on
Apr 15, 2008 1:42 PM EDT
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Just resigned
The Padres just resigned Greene in February to a two year deal. What makes anyone here think they suddenly want to give him up. It’s not as if they have a replacement ready to take his place either.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/san-diego-padres.html
by indakind on
Apr 15, 2008 2:16 PM EDT
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Ludwick is the man
we have 5 guys on the roster that could hit 30+ hrs. Its kinda silly to be talking about needing another impact bat.
However, as the original post pointed out, not all of those 30+ guys are cut out for the cleanup spot.
Ludwick seems the best fit for the cleanup spot. He's done everything he can to win a full time spot like has been given to Ankiel. Trade Duncan to free up a spot for Rasmus and get a middle infielder in exchange.
by gossard56 on
Apr 13, 2008 10:33 PM EDT
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don't look now
but Rasmus is hitting exactly .200 as of today. he has had one scratch hit in the last four days. Also by the box score, Ryan played SS for Palms Spring today. He went 1 for 4, will probably e called up sometime this week.
by ridgesee on
Apr 13, 2008 10:48 PM EDT
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So?
The guy the Giants called up and killed the Cardinals apparently wasn't hitting either (.185).
It could be Rasmus is disheartened by doing more than enough to make the team out of Spring Training, but jobbed by the Cardinals simply because they want to cheat him out of money (ie, super two arbitration)
by DiscoJer on
Apr 13, 2008 11:03 PM EDT
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You could be right
DiscoJer. But I have watched Rasmus closely for 3 years and he does seem to be a streak hitter, (so be prepared for that) but one that can carry a club when he's hot...kind of the Willie Mays variety. I don't look for the Cards to call him up until midseason though or a irisistable trade comes up in the mean time.
by ridgesee on
Apr 13, 2008 11:11 PM EDT
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+1 ... the answer is within the organization, people ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on
Apr 14, 2008 9:59 AM EDT
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i like Luddy but...
i think Barton offers more "upside" (there is that word again) than Ludwick and would like to see him get the at-bats. until Rasmus comes up you can play both, but after that a outfiled of Barton, Rasmus and Ankiel from left to right looks awful nice.
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon
by nomar34 on
Apr 14, 2008 10:42 AM EDT
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what kind of player would coco crisp be, I honestly don't know, thats's why I'm asking. I see boston is not too happy with him anymore. But I agree with the Lud-ites , that ludwick has decent speed, gap power, has come up big with risp so he could fit well maybe
by from First to Third on
Apr 13, 2008 10:35 PM EDT
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Coco Crisp is worthless to the Cardinals
he has 0 power, only speed and defense. He would be a waste of an OF spot.
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Apr 13, 2008 11:06 PM EDT
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and
i was stuck in the boston market most of last year and seen him play quite a bit
he doesn't have that great of an arm, has a decently high popup rate, someone you'd hate to have when they have speed. he's notoriously lazy on the ball and the thing that pisses me off the most about him.. and something you may have seen in the world series last year.
he trots to first base!. a guy that damn fast trotting is an utter disgrace.
the fans would love to get rid of him though, so you'd have their support at least, but frankly hes at most comparable to a couple of our fielders., but i'd hate to see him
by AdjustedExpectations on
Apr 14, 2008 12:11 AM EDT
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All together now!
LUDWICK!!!
I'm looking for the next Bobby Bonilla?
by showmejoe on
Apr 13, 2008 11:29 PM EDT
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Ludwick...
can hit lefties and righties so we could have our 3,4,5 spots stay the same each game with Pujols, Ludwick, Glaus.
We need to trade for a middle infielder who can hit!!. I dont like hitting an OF in the leadoff spot (too many years of being spoiled by having a CF with power!). With a MI leading off we can then hit Rasmus 2nd and Ankiel 6th, Molina 7th and Ryan 9th. Suddenly the entire line is looking much more solid. I'd be fine with shuffling the 1st, 2nd and 6th spots somewhat with maybe Rasmus leading off, Ankiel 2nd and new MI hitting 7th.
the addition of a good hitting middle infielder would do wonders to the lineup.
by gossard56 on
Apr 14, 2008 12:00 AM EDT
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When did Ryan Ludwick start hitting
LHP?
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 12:26 AM EDT
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Here are Ludwick's split numbers so far in 2008:
Split G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
+-+------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+
vs RHP 9 20 18 8 2 2 1 8 2 0 6 .444 .500 .944 1.444
vs LHP 8 19 17 4 1 0 2 2 2 1 5 .235 .316 .647 .963
First, Ryan is definately better against RHP; however, his power numbers are perfectly acceptable against LHP ... His doubles are comparable, his home runs are better, his walks the same and his SO less against LHP ... an OPS of .963 against LHP is better than Ankiel's and Glaus's OPS numbers, and they get everyday starts ... I say Ludwick's numbers against LHP are good enough to start him everyday, and see if his batting average increases against LHP, given his TREMENDOUS numbers against RHP ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on
Apr 14, 2008 11:05 AM EDT
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19 ABs a hitter do not make
look at his MiLB statistics, look at his other MLB statistics. Ludwick has been AWFUL vs LHP in his entire career, sans this 19 AB stretch you speak of.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 11:08 AM EDT
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Of course the sample size is low, duh ...
but your comment was short term ... you said 'since when' ... and the numbers so far in 2008 say 'since April 1' Ludwick has been hitting LHP for power pretty effectively ... and also, 'since when' has Ludwick had the opportunity he has now to really play a lot and get as many AB as he's getting right now ... perhaps he needs to play everyday to be allowed to break out .... just an idea ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on
Apr 14, 2008 11:11 AM EDT
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I just can't buy into the fact that Ludwick has
finally figured out to hit LHP because he has 4 hits this season against them, 2 of which are HRs and 1 double.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 4:53 PM EDT
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+1
I think it says more about the left handers he's faced than it does about his "new" hitting approach. a 30pt drop in ops+ between the both in mlb stats shows a true difference in the split
by AdjustedExpectations on
Apr 14, 2008 10:11 PM EDT
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Reverse platoon splits don't exisit.
Don’t trust small sample sizes.
Free Barry Bonds
by JI on
Apr 15, 2008 1:43 PM EDT
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Maybe not 19 ABs, but
Take the collective of all Ludwick’s major league at-bats and the sample size explaination starts to looks just plain silly. Here’s his pre-08 mlb splits:
Year rhp / lhp
2002: .267/ .167
2003: .262/ .220
2004: .278/ .188
2005: .250/ .200
2007: .298/ .221
Career: .278; .211
If it were a one year thing, sure the “small sample size” could allow one to ignore the argument at hand. I don’t think it’s wise to do that here.
by k randolph on
Apr 15, 2008 6:52 PM EDT
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I know, I know. It's still a small sample
We’re talking about maybe 200-250 PAs? Meaningless.
There have been studies done, reverse platoons are almost non-existent
Free Barry Bonds
by JI on
Apr 15, 2008 8:10 PM EDT
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What the heck is a reverse platoon?
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 15, 2008 8:12 PM EDT
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Duh
nevermind.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 15, 2008 8:14 PM EDT
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yes.
Tango for one does the math in his book “The Book”, and shows that it takes a given player about 2000 PA’s vs a LHP for a RHB vs LHP split to be more statistically significant than the league average split. Ludwick has 304 PA’s against LHP; the “small sample size” argument is still very valid.
For reference, his BABIP against LHP has been right around .200 for his career. i can’t find career batted ball split information, but I would suspect that is low, and the fact that he has 15 career HR against lefties in 304 PA and 16 HR against righties in 439 tells me he doesn’t have a hard time seeing the ball against them; he’s just had bad luck on balls he doesn’t hit over the fence.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
Apr 16, 2008 12:39 AM EDT
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Off the top of my head
my guess would be that a guy like Ludwick would typically have a BABIP of .280-.290.
NEEDS MORE BONDS
by JI on
Apr 16, 2008 2:16 PM EDT
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399 and 274
it is also now .286 and .212 for his splits.
His BABIP though is the interesting stat: .348 vs RHP .242 vs LHP
by StLHugo on
Apr 16, 2008 4:25 PM EDT
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Yeah, Roberts from the Orioles ...
take him away from the Cubs ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on
Apr 14, 2008 10:01 AM EDT
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He doesn't fit our cleanup role...
but whatever happened to Josh Barfield? He isn't on the Indians roster, nor on their AAA team roster. Could he be had for cheap? Does he still even play baseball?
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Apr 14, 2008 12:04 AM EDT
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n/m he is on their AAA teams roster
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Apr 14, 2008 12:13 AM EDT
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Thank you
I've been on the Acquire Barfield bandwagon for months now....
Personally, I think we got hosed on that call.
by TurdFerguson on
Apr 14, 2008 1:31 PM EDT
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Do the Dodgers want to move furcal?
This is the last year of his contract and they have Hu waiting... What would it take to land Furcal to play SS and be the leadoff hitter for the Cards?
by Jumsy on
Apr 14, 2008 12:21 AM EDT
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Two things
Don't we already have like... 8.5 million already invested in the MI as it is? How long is left on Miles and Kennedy?
Would they? They have a reasonable argument for contending. (good luck with the way Arizona is playing), would they make such a move?
OT: San Diego swooped Jimmy because of OF concerns, do they need someone else?
by AdjustedExpectations on
Apr 14, 2008 12:26 AM EDT
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burrell
there's no way pat doesn't exercise his no-trade clause. he loves philadelphia and has publicly stated that he wants to come back to philly after the '08 season. i wouldn't describe his relationship with the fans as "contentious" right now, either - i was there on opening day, and he got as loud a positive reaction as anyone not named jimmy rollins or chase utley during introductions. no boos were heard.
also, it's highly unlikely that the phillies would be out of the race come the trade deadline. so that one's not even in the realm of possibility.
boiler up.
by moboiler on
Apr 14, 2008 12:42 AM EDT
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I didn't ignore any of those points
and prior to about July of 2007, Pat Burrell was public enemy #1 in Philadelphia. He wasn't hitting for snot, was being paid like a superstar and the Phillies were falling out of the pennant race. He was boo'd viciously.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 12:47 AM EDT
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Also, reading the article you linked to
it helps make the point he may accept a trade out of necessity. Burrell is 31 years old and will be looking for a contract in the off-season. The Phillies appear not wanting to extend him. If he believes he has a future with the Cardinals, he would most certainly accept that trade.
I'm not advocating anyone on this list. I have my preference but that isn't part of the discussion. These are just likely candidates based on a) availability, b) possibility and c) positive effect on the team.
Mozeliak said that the Cardinals would look to address the concerns of protecting Pujols in the lineup. He seems to have a level head on his shoulder and realizes that Chris Duncan/Ryan Ludwick may not put enough fear into pitchers to pitch to Pujols or face a 2-run HR coming behind him.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 12:53 AM EDT
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i don't see what point you're referring to in the article
yes, a trade could make sense for the phils since he is going to be a free agent, but outfield depth would be a problem there as well - their starting OF would be geoff jenkins, jayson werth, and the fragile shane victorino. is that worth it for what the cardinals would give in return? also, who would the cards give up? izzy (another no-trade issue)? franklin (persona non grata in phila)? reyes (maaaaaybe...)?
either way, my point is that i believe pat just plain won't accept a trade anywhere. i'll note the article also quotes him as to how much he loves his teammates there and desperately wants to be a part of the "winning organization."
i agree the cards need an extra bat, and bonds would in fact make the most sense, but i just don't see that happening. your immediate dismissal of the orioles surprised me a bit, however, as luke scott would be a far better fit than a lot of the other OF you mention, especially sticking the lefty bat in between pujols and glaus to keep opposing managers honest. and he could probably be had a lot cheaper than crawford, burrell, etc. also, we could try and take brian roberts out from under the cubs' nose, but i don't see him coming as cheap as scott would.
just some thoughts...
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
Apr 14, 2008 1:09 AM EDT
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Luke Scott
Living in Houston the last 4 years, I got to see Luke play a lot. He, IMO, has a lot of good tools and can hit for power. I agree with you on him, I'd like to see him wearing the BOB.
C'mon you Redbirds, lets prove em' wrong, again!
by yer dog first on
Apr 14, 2008 3:57 PM EDT
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2nd base
If I recall correctly, Ryan can roam across the entire infield. So when he comes back, he can platoon 3rd/SS for the older guys, 2nd as needed or when the splits line up. Duncan obviously gets the first call and with our surplus of outfielders that's reasonable.
Miles can linger around since and if i recall correctly he's a FA anyways.
I like Uggla from the Marlins. Some pop, young, reasonable speed, able to hit movement, not real contract liability. Though his numbers really dont look good this year thus far, but i cant see it as a true reflection of him.
We should have gotten Kinsler from the Rangers, now with his new contract, he's pretty much untouchable. Though I think he's worth the price.
I've never been a real big fan of pop in the 3rd and 4th spot. Preferring the 3rd and 5th. With having a above average OBP/20hrish/decent BB rate in the fourth position.
While it can adds walks for the #3, I don't know if it'll be that much. That and our #3 could use a little less elbow action anyways. Our #3 happens to be a very smart base runner to boot. So he's not a slow tank sitting out there on first. He's a liability for that walk.
The most likely chance for an IBB will be a 1or 2 outs with someone on first, I don't know how many open innings walks he'll have by IBB, I doubt many as the liability isn't that great. Having someone with an high OBP and reasonable pop may be worth facing vs Albert, but I'd rather have them then your traditional two phase batter: SO/Popfly or Mult Base hit.
Then you have solid hitting in the 5th spot, which makes the #3 and potentially the #4 a run liability.
I just don't want to get stuck with some slow ass guy who hits .275 and 28 jacks a year. Historically 20 some percent of those are going to come with no one on anyways, I'd rather put RISP and actually have a guy in 4th who has the ability to get them home. Can't IBB back to back to face #5, because he's going to have 2-3 on and is a liability himself.
Ank has the attributes to be that #4, but his plate discipline and pitch tagging isn't up to par. Way too many SO's thus far.
Lud and Dunc both have bad lefty splits, Barton isn't proven (and push comes to shove, he's a #1, #2 type player as it is.)
And in my opinion, our outfield is fine. They match up well on splits for platooning. A couple can be solid selections for pinch hitting/running. Duncan can play 1st. Two legit lead off hitters. And the best attribute is that they're playing like it's spring training for a reason, they don't have any true settling as job security. Which is why I think we're getting the great scrappy play this year. There's also 'The Gift' sitting in AAA that will be a lingering thought as the season going on.
Something like
1 Shubacca/Barton
2 Lud/Barton/Dunc
3 Albert/Dunc
4 Ank (if he can control the SO)/New 2nd/Dunc if nonlefty
5 Glaus/Ryan
6 New 2nd/Ryan/Miles
7 Molina
8 Pitcher
9 Iz/Ryan/Miles
Shu and Barton re clear favs in the leadoff
Albert in 3, or Dunc on days off
Guas in 5, or Ryan on days off
Molina in 7th, Pitcher in 8th
If Iz is getting on base, and his batting average doesn't get any worse, I'm fine with him starting on #9 because of his defense. *unless* 6,7,8 start getting on base at a reasonable click, then he's not there for the "2nd leadoff", but now he's needing to be liable for RISP. I'd like to see him steal more though.
Ryan can give him days off, or take his spot should he languish. Miles as the third option if Ryan is taking care of another position, and a average pinch hitter/runner.
If Ank can control the strike outs then I'd place him at 4th. But his K's are shocking, and BB aren't good enough. New 2nd could also fit this role. Or Duncan could platoon it.
The outfielders can platoon the #2 spot depending on fielding/splits.
If we had a reasonable 2nd baseman I'd love to see a #6 like 3b Lowell for Bos.
In short, if we have a 1-2-3 first inning then we have a decent "lead off" before the heavy #5. If not, #4 should be patient enough to take the walk if it presents, hit for contact if not. As long as #4 isn't DP prone, it works out ok.
Enough Rambling. Bash away
by AdjustedExpectations on
Apr 14, 2008 3:06 AM EDT
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Glaus..
Troy just needs to step it up and start slugging and thats all there is to it. I'm tired of hearing that he's not a number 4 hitter. This guy has 40 home run pop. He belongs in the clean up spot. If he can't cope with the pressure thats just simply unacceptable. He's a seasoned veteran now and should have the mental aspect figured out by now.
No apologies, no excuses. He makes 12.5 million dollars.
"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on
Apr 14, 2008 4:04 AM EDT
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No worries
Glaus will step it up. It's not like he's the only slugger off to a slow start. Helly, Miguel Cabrera is .175/.283/275 for Detroit. Some people just get off to rough starts. Glaus' power will materialize.
by mojowo11 on
Apr 15, 2008 12:30 AM EDT
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We may have a Crawford type player sitting the bench 3 out of 4 games, because he "can't throw" (unless of course you ignore Holm being thrown out at the plate on 4/11 with a perfect strike).
Power bat to protect AP...? How about just a good, solid bat somewhere past the 5 hole? Besides Wainwright.....
Glaus should be hitting #4 while we wait for the most affordable "perfect gift", tho I think the Sizemore comparison is a bit weak, I'd settle for that in his rookie year. I also dont think he'll be stuck leading off for long.
Hoff and Mather seem to doing ok so far down south. Yes I know its a small sample.
by cardschinmusic on
Apr 14, 2008 6:54 AM EDT
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Mather...
...is on the DL. D.GOOCH
-- GOOCH
by GOOCH24 on
Apr 14, 2008 9:44 AM EDT
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I see that Gooch, went on 4/10....bummer, he was raking?
by cardschinmusic on
Apr 14, 2008 2:12 PM EDT
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Every player HL
suggested in his post was an outfielder. About 90% of the responses to the post mentioned adding an outfielder to dissaude other teams from pitching around Pujols. Now realisticly who in the hell could we possibly get to deter that. Arod, Manny Ramiriz......Hummmmm. Certainly not anybody mentioned here on this thread.
To my thinking, the outfield is the least of our problems. La Russa is a mix and match manager and thrives on it. That being, I like our outfield, I like the mix and match, seems our outfielders are thriving on it, but every time an outfielder comes to town and has a good series against the Cards a lot of people remember it and fall in love with him and see him as just what we need to take us to another WS when in reality they have the same shortcomings as what we have when you watch them over time and in a Cardinal uniform. Ex. Troy Glaus was mentioned a number of time this winter as someone that could do wonders for us...now he is viewed as insufficent.
By far the most pressing need is a middle infielder and more specifiicly a 2nd baseman that can field and hit. If it takes giving up one of our outfielder to do it OK, because we have more on the way. If you are going to play mix and match with your outfield ( and La Russa is) I think you can replace who we have to give up with somebody who can take up the slack by mid season.
But long discussions about getting the "big impact bat" to protect Pujols is just unrealistic and I think Mo realizes that.
SECOND BASEMAN PLEASE..
by ridgesee on
Apr 14, 2008 9:55 AM EDT
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agreed
I would prefer a 2ber that is young. Some one who would fill that roll for several years. Delwyn Young looks like he could fill that role, but how do we get him? Like we talked about yesterday the best action might be inaction.
by nybirdfan on
Apr 14, 2008 10:34 AM EDT
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Every option was not strictly an OF
Young can play any position on the field (other than pitcher and catcher). The odds of finding an impact bat at a MIF position is very rare and I think Mozeliak realizes that.
Why have I gotten the feeling through this whole fanpost that you've tried your best to make it a personal confrontation?
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 11:07 AM EDT
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HL
I don’t know why you think I am trying to make it a personal confrontation, I am not. I read your post with great interest and I commend you, just as Ituris, did that it was a well thought out well composed fanpost. But it did not address in any way what I think is the foremost needs of the club at this time. Furthermore it addressed what to me could be a deterrent to the success of the team so for this season and that is "monkeying" with an outfield that seems to be producing both offensively and defensively. As I stated, I like La Russa’s mix and match, I think we have just the personel in place to make it work. Come May I might think differently.
You based your post on an earlier statement by Moselaik that he would like to find an impact bat to compliment Pujols. The statement you refer too (or the one I’m familiar with) was made in ST before it was known what production could be expected form the current outfielders. IMO a more glaring need has surfaced and that is prospects of dismal production from a middle infield and the bottom of the batting order. I submit that if Moselaik was asked today what his main concern is, it would be that also and if not I would disagree with him also… for what little it is worth.
Now on a more personal basis, for a month, I have read repeated posts from you about the need to play Barton more. You pushed Barton as if he was the answer for the hitter that we really needed to carry the Cards to greater heights. I was not convinced as you were, but in time I came around to your thinking since I have seen that Barton can throw.
(obviously it was just a spring soreness that he was protecting) I believe now that he could develop into an impact hitter. Yes indeed, you convinced me, but in the meantime, you seem to have done a complete turnaround and come up with a long well constructed post to rehash every retread outfielder in the majors that has been hashed repeatedly in the offseason. Excuse me HL, but who is being fickle, me or you.
I read your post with great interest and like iboris stated, I also was impressed with the outline and construction of it but when I scanned down enough to see the name Barry Bonds I almost quit reading, and maybe I should have, but that being said..let me read your first direct quote for your solution to the problem; BARRY BONDS-THIS IS THE MOST OBIVIOUS SHORT TERM FIX. To me this was enough for me to take issue as I have seen you do so many times on this blog with what other people posts and comment on. You have stated several times before on this offseason that Bonds might be a good signing; so has iboris for that matter, but I STRONGLY disagree with you both. If you saw any comments that you thought to be personal, believe me they weren’t but if you post anything that I strongly disagree with, it is hard for me to not strongly respond, but I hope I have kept it within the guidelines.
Again HL, you are one of my favorites, Can we agree to Disagree?
by ridgesee on
Apr 14, 2008 6:22 PM EDT
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Mozeliaks comments came just 5 days ago
not in Spring Training. I would not have written this story now if they had.
The Front Office is already kicking around this idea, I didn't hatch it out of a 3 month old frame of mind.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 9:18 PM EDT
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HL
HL is correct, Mo was interviewed during the Houston series. I belive he was in the booth Thursday talking about an impart bat.
I do agree with ridgesee, TLR's mix and match seems to be playing it's way out well at this point. It may take about a month and a half of this to see if some guys really step up and lock up a spot. It is just such a small sample size at this point I am not going to clammor too much at this point. I think the OF mix is doing well and maybe not one of them is a true everyday player and this is really helping all of them.
by ICbirdfan on
Apr 14, 2008 9:49 PM EDT
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Then I stand corrected HL
I did hear an interview on ktrs in spring training where Moselaik said that and I did add that "The one I was familiar with was a while back" but I except you being more update than me. My feelings are just the same though even if he is still intertaining the notion. Could be that both of could be smarter than me.
by ridgesee on
Apr 14, 2008 11:08 PM EDT
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AP 4th?
I like the previous idea of using AP as our cleanup, but does Glaus in the 5th hole provide enough protection? Taking a huge change in the lineup I see something like:
Ryan/Kennedy
Ludwick
Ankiel
Pujols
Glaus
Duncan/Barton (Platoon them?)
Molina
Izturis/Kennedy/Miles
Pitcher
Notice I kicked Skip out of an everyday role into the 4th OF backup instead of an everyday. I think Izturis, Kennedy or Ryan can fill that role and allow us to utilize a corner OF slot for more pop.
The biggest problem we have is that we are wasting a corner OF spot on a leadoff hitter, especially LF. I like Skip a lot but we just can't waste a corner spot on a low power OBP type guy.
by StLHugo on
Apr 14, 2008 10:45 AM EDT
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Why not?
Once upon a time, the Cardinals used guys named Brock, Lonnie Smith, and Coleman as leadoff guys/corner outfielders... I admit, those '80's teams were built for their home ballpark -- a huge outfield with AstroTurf; but when (if) one gets "plus" power from CF (Ankiel), you can afford to have an OBP guy in one of the corners leading off.
I think Tony will mix-and-match until he finds a guy who can mash in the four-hole. Might be Ank, might be Duncan, might be Lud, might be Glaus... it's still mid-April; wait and see.
I'm more concerned with the bottom of the order... avoiding "black hole" innings from the MIF. Izturis has shown me more patience than I expected in the 9-hole, but you need something from 2B. I'm not ready to declare Kennedy as a sunk cost just yet, but I sure do wish he'd get hot!
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on
Apr 14, 2008 12:20 PM EDT
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i disagree
with but when (if) one gets "plus" power from CF (Ankiel), you can afford to have an OBP guy in one of the corners leading off.
First off, for Skip to be an "OBP guy" he'll have to hit .330 again. Even if skip does this, we'll score less runs with skip+ankiel in the lineup than with Luddy+ankiel or barton+ankiel or duncan+ankiel. It's TLR's insistence on the leadoff man fitting a stereotype that gets skip into the lineup, and that stereotype hurts the team. "Leadoff man" is not a position, and the "need for one" should never influence who is in the lineup on a given day.
If your choice for the same position is between a guy who puts up an ~.860 OPS with a ~.360 OBP [and the potential for a .950 OPS breakout] like ludwick, and a guy who puts up a .750 OPS with a .340 OBP and the potential for a .825 OPS breakout (Schumaker), and both are competent defensively, it makes zero sense to start the guy with the lower OBP potential just because he DOESN'T have power and is therefore a "leadoff hitter". Skip would have to be 20 runs better with the glove that Luddy to make it make sense, and he isn't that much better.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
Apr 14, 2008 1:38 PM EDT
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Whitey had his big bat at cleanup. . .
"Silent" George Hendrick and Jack Clark following the rabbits and contact hitters. I think we need to see AP as the protector and get some good pitches for the other guys to hit rather than expecting these guys to protect AP. Hitting in front of Albert makes EVERYONE better, and we'll score runs too.
by gocards62 on
Apr 14, 2008 2:21 PM EDT
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I like that a lot...
I mean Pujols 4th and Ankiel 3rd…
"Why does he keep saying that?"
by Red Blazer on
Apr 16, 2008 10:36 AM EDT
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pat burrell would be great
only if he could be had for reyes straight up and we could dump him after the season if he tanks.
HEEE HEHEHE BIG BOY- mike shannon
by plunkem on
Apr 14, 2008 10:50 AM EDT
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Let's face facts.
Name the hitters in baseball who would so frighten pitchers that they'd rather pitch to Albert. A rather short list if there is one, with everyone on it unavailable. Go with Ankiel and Glaus.
The Cards need better offensive production from the middle infield, especially 2B. The suggestion of Barfield is a good one. He was once a top prospect, has the bloodlines, and is still cheap.
by vinniefromjersey on
Apr 14, 2008 11:16 AM EDT
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eh
barfield is younger than kennedy but i don't think at this point he's appreciably better. his one good BA-inflated season in '06 was no worse than kennedy at the same point, and barfield also went into the tank in '07. he's hitting a pretty empty .325 this season so far, but it's so early. in this situation, i hope kennedy has a pretty long leash unless we are able to produce a major upgrade (i.e. roberts, uggla).
additionally, i'd be willing to wager that the indians still view barfield as enough of a prospect to hope they get some value out of him at the major league level (especially w/ asdrubal cabrera struggling), so i don't think he'd be worth trading what we'd likely have to give up.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
Apr 14, 2008 11:54 AM EDT
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+1
I agree with the point that it needs to be a MAJOR upgrade to pull the trigger and unfortunately I agree with HL and am not seeing a ton of them out there.
by birdo rojo on
Apr 15, 2008 3:05 PM EDT
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what about...
Yadier Molina?
okay, not exactly the most thrilling option. He's not even the best hitting of the Molina Bros. but...here's just a few numbers I found that make a case he could be worth a shot.
Career, against NL Central Teams:
CIN: 307/327/458
MIL: 250/356/420
PIT: 295/340/450
not bad. well except this:
CHI: 222/289/304
HOU: 216/271/284
and worse yet, those last two teams probably had the best pitching out of the NL Central since 2005.
Molina is a not a HR threat and I think the best he could ever do is maybe around 15...
In 2006 he had a double for every 16 AB's, but his other two years it was 23 and 25.
Another thing for Molina is that he slightly better against LHP, but really his numbers don't seem to contrast that much between righties and lefties.
So here is my "theory": If Molina can not break some bone and stay healthy, and sandwhiched between Pujols and Glaus/Ludwick, if he continues to hit to the OPPOSITE field and go more for doubles instead of HR's he could be an interesting experiment.
Rip away guys!
by jeffrw on
Apr 14, 2008 11:29 AM EDT
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yikes
a .3something slugging percentage is not ideal in the 4-hole, especially following up a guy who's on base a lot and not terribly speedy. also, it is definitely saying a lot when a guy would be clogging up the bases in front of troy glaus... but yady would probably do that.
if he got to .290/.340/.450 or something then it might be worth thinking about, but for now i don't see that as a feasible option.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
Apr 14, 2008 11:46 AM EDT
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yeah
yeah...i know.
But the majority of our games are against NL Central teams and his numbers for three of those five teams fall into the ideal projections for a 4-hole hitter in the NL.
Part of protecting another batter is based on reputation...not necessary performance. Yadi has some decent numbers I believe with RISP and clutch hits. No, he's not Rolen, et al...but I don't think he's viewed as an easy out or someone you take lightly when there are runners on base.
I know he's not the most ideal option, but in a year of "transitioning" I say give him some AB's there...why not? He's young and can still develop as a hitter. His strength is line drives, opposite field and doubles. If he can dial that in consistently...and in a year of "IF's", try it out.
by jeffrw on
Apr 14, 2008 12:06 PM EDT
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No
That doesn't solve our protection problem at all, not a team in the league would hesitate to walk Pujols in order to get to Molina.
I think the whole point of this fan post was that you wanted someone behind Pujols that would make them think twice before walking him, and Molina isn't that guy.
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Apr 14, 2008 12:14 PM EDT
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I think there's
plenty of power in our roster that good options could be found for the 4 spot. A platoon w/ Glaus vs. Lefties and Dunc or Ludwick vs. righties sounds good. Our BIGGER problem is our MIF. Miles and Kennedy are terrible thus far, and the odds of them improving greatly are 50/50. Ryan should be up in a week or so...hopefully he can help. After that it may be time to start considering DFA'ing some dead weight and bringing up Hoffpauir. We need someguys in the 6 and 7 spots who can either get on base or drive in some runs!!!
by cardzfanbub on
Apr 14, 2008 11:40 AM EDT
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yes
If Kennedy does not start hitting - he needs to be cut/traded (I say this with full realization that a trade will be nigh impossible). And Hoff is still hitting the ball well. If you have him in the one/two hole, Ank can be moved to hit after big al. I don't like the idea of trading for another outfielder who may or may not improve the offense - and especially if it is at the expense of defense. We can't afford bad defense with our pitching staff.
by cdb on
Apr 14, 2008 11:56 AM EDT
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Exactly what I was thinking
I'm ok with toggling Glaus and Ankiel between 4 & 5. I like Duncan at the 2 spot. People are going to walk Pujols no matter who is behind them.
To me the greatest concern is the runs we are giving away offensively, compared to most other teams, in the bottom of the order. Now I am taking some liberties here and making an assumption that both the starting middle infielders will be providing OPS in the 600's. I'm seeing that Izturis saves runs with his defense, so he has some value. I just don't see it being offensive value. People can argue it if they want. I know he's been drawing walks. Just don't think it sustainable.
It's just my opinion, but I don't see Kennedy or Izturis offering anything offensively over time. And Miles is a pretty known quantity too. I think we likely have one of the weakest offensive middle infields in the league. And hence one of the weakest bottom of the lineup. That's the #1 problem in the lineup as I see it.
by Merry CRasmus on
Apr 14, 2008 2:52 PM EDT
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Just One Cow's Opinion...
But I like this line-up:
Barton
Ryan
Pujols
Ankiel
Glaus
Duncan
Moolina
Pitcher
Izturis
by The MooCow on
Apr 14, 2008 11:40 AM EDT
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+1
Ank 4th vs the righty Glaus vs the Lefties
I don't think pop is our offensive problem. Our offensive problem is trying to "improve" upon our 2B/SS production. For that you give Hoff a shot and cross your fingers on IZ 2... The only other options are to target Hu or Lillibridge.....
Now from an SP perspective.... Yikes!
by Lawless on
Apr 14, 2008 5:53 PM EDT
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+1
I like the call of getting power out of the 2 slot, by pushing Duncan/Ludwick/Ankiel/whoever down to 6th makes the 3-4-5 combo even better. Plus it put Yadi in the 7th slot where he should be (no speed, no power, low strike outs). the only player who can really handle the 2 slot then might actually be B.Ryan, but we will see.
One change I would make, is leave Skip in until he stops getting on base. He's on at least twice a night it seems like.
by Stan and Slaughter on
Apr 14, 2008 8:06 PM EDT
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+1
Shubacca hasn't done anything to warrant being put back on the bench. He's been on a reasonable tear as of late, and has had some great plays in the OF.
by AdjustedExpectations on
Apr 15, 2008 12:35 AM EDT
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I really don't think the middle of the order
is going to be the problem. Our 7, 9, and 1 spots, though, are pretty bad. Glaus will come around. Duncan and Ankiel will provide enough homers to compete w/ any middle of the order in the NL. The question is "will Skip, Izturis, and Adam Kennedy get on base enough to generate run?" I think the answer is probably a pretty definitive "no."
Rasmus could solve 1 of those problems or maybe Barton could in the meantime. In the 2nd half, Rasmus should be up and contributing but we're going to be stuck w/ problems at the middle infield positions. I still have hopes that Hoffpauir can supply some OBP from the 2B position but he's blocked by AK's contract. Maybe in July, August, September he'll be given a shot.
Could Rasmus, Ryan, and Hoffpauir be the solutions? I don't know but I think it's worth our while to try and find out.
by chuckb on
Apr 14, 2008 11:48 AM EDT
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Not rasmus
I don't see how Rasmus makes that large a difference. the 7,9, and 1 spots are occupied by our two middle infielders and Yadi. Rasmus can't (or at least shouldn't) play those positions. Hoff - I am thinking gets a call this year. Put his 400 OBP at the top of the lineup and that changes alot.
by cdb on
Apr 14, 2008 11:59 AM EDT
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....no they aren't
The 7 position has been Kennedy 5 times, Molina and LaRue 3 each. 9 has been Izturis 9 times, Miles 3 and Kennedy 1. 1 has been Schumaker 9 times, Barton 3 and Izturis 1. (these are the most common players, there have been others in some of those holes).
So if Rasmus replaces Schumaker in the 1 hole than Houston's statement is true. I really don't get how you say that our 7,9,1 is MIF+Molina.
by StLHugo on
Apr 14, 2008 1:20 PM EDT
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OK
So I spoke without the numbers. Tony 'the lineup generator' LaRussa has me baffled at times. My point was more that the three obvious week spots in the lineup are Molina (who is not getting replaced) and that MI combo that we Cardinal fans are so proud of. I was correct though with regards to the 7 and 9 spots. THat leaves the leadoff spot.
Barton in the leadoff spot seems to be a match that alot of people like. Izturis and Schu not so much. The problem is that we can only play three of our outfiilders at a time. If Schu is in, either Ludwick or Ank or Dunc or Barton is out. The point is the outfielders are generally a sound bunch, and replacing anyone of them with Rasmus takes one of the others out. The upgrade of Rasmus over (for arguments sake) Barton is probably less valuable than replacement of Kennedy with a Hoffpauer (assuming his minor league numbers translate to the bigs). We have to replace a POSITION first, then fit that player into the lineup. I personally think that the MI is the most obvious target for offensive improvement. Izturis seems to be earning his money defensively, Kennedy not so much, and our AAA second baseman seems to offer at least what Kennedy offers, but for virtually free.
by cdb on
Apr 14, 2008 1:54 PM EDT
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braves
After watching tom glavine fall apart against the nats yesterday, it looks like the braves are in need of somebody to eat innings as a fifth starter. This comes conveniently when we have a surplus of fifth starter/swingman type arms. I'm not terribly familiar with the braves organization. Might they be a possible trading partner to fill either our middle infield or hitting needs?
by spencegrif on
Apr 14, 2008 11:58 AM EDT
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Thompson for Lillibridge
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Apr 14, 2008 12:11 PM EDT
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Lillibridge fits our needs
And they could certainly use back of the rotation and bullpen help...something that I think we have a suplus of. Here are Lillibridge's minor league numbers:
He's had a rough start to this year but put up a .282/.341/.417 line between AA and AAA last year. He'll be 25 in September and is blocked by Yunel Escobar (SS), Kelly Johnson (2B), and Ruben Gotay (UTIL).
My offer would be: Brad Thompson, Mark Worrell & Cody Haerther for Lillibridge & AA Lefty Matt Harrison (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Matt%20Harrison&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=457448)
by indakind on
Apr 14, 2008 12:17 PM EDT
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Um, I think Matt Harrison is now property of the Texas Rangers.
He was part of the minor league prospect cash out for Mark T. last year.....
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Apr 14, 2008 5:44 PM EDT
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The Braves
should listen to reasonable offers for Lillibridge because they are completely sold on Escobar. Although I know that lillibridge is held in high regard by many I have not seen enough of him to offer an opinion.
by ridgesee on
Apr 14, 2008 7:41 PM EDT
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my dream scenario
I don't think we have it would take. Brad Thompson wouldn't come anywhere close!
by chuckb on
Apr 14, 2008 1:37 PM EDT
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Lillibridge is good but not great
I don't see how the Braves would turn down a package of pitchers for him. We could throw a Mike Parisi into the deal to sweeten the pot. Basically a gaggle of pitchers the Braves could use in the back end or their rotation (plus when Glavine, Smoltz, & HAmpton spend time on DL) and the middle of their bullpen would be very appealing to a team that can clearly hit. Furthermore, Lillibridge is blocked at the ML level. Its not like Lillibridge is posting 800+ OPS in the minors.
by indakind on
Apr 14, 2008 1:54 PM EDT
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lillibridge
I don't know much about him, but a minor leage 768 OPS? Does he project well - how is he better than Hoff and his 880 minor league OPS? Why should we spend anything to get a player worse than the one we have?
by cdb on
Apr 14, 2008 2:02 PM EDT
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Your numbers are wrong
Hoff has a career minor league OPS of 777. Furthermore, Lillibridge is a shortstop by trade meaning he can play at least two infield positions (i.e. slide over to short next year). Anyway here's a link to Hoff's stats so you can see for yourself:
by indakind on
Apr 14, 2008 2:45 PM EDT
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correction
You are correct - should have looked more closely. Still - he seems at best marginally better than Hoff offensively. Hoff seems to be trending toward improvement, whereas Lill's numbers took a hit last year. Is 2007 real for Hoff? Can Lill perform above high A ball? I don't know - but I am still not convinced that Lill is an upgrade over our in house option. Hoff also has slightly better defensive numbers.
by cdb on
Apr 14, 2008 2:56 PM EDT
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My mistake
Lillibridge has posted 800+ OPS in the minors. See his stats below.
by indakind on
Apr 14, 2008 2:48 PM EDT
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Lillibridge is blocked + you are overrating him a bit
Thompson probably wouldn't be enough, but it wouldn't take much more than him.
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on
Apr 14, 2008 2:35 PM EDT
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It might take more than you think. Escobar is still early in his career, Johnson gets injured a lot. They might not be quite ready to part with him.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on
Apr 14, 2008 5:47 PM EDT
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Good post, Hardcore
But I have to disagree with you on a couple of points.
1. I disagree with your assertion that the 4th spot is the biggest problem in this lineup. Ankiel, Duncan, and Glaus could all put up similar league average numbers when batting in the 4th spot, and nobody on your list (aside from Bonds, who isn't worth the circus) provides better slash lines in that spot.
2. What's with the love of Ankiel in the second spot? I don't understand why a guy with his OBP numbers and walk rate is our "best" option in the second spot. I've said this before, but he's by far the best option in the four spot, with Duncan hitting second and Glaus fifth. Then when Rasmus is called up, he moves Duncan to the 6 spot and hits in the 2 hole. With his on-base ability and speed, he presents a much better option in front of Albert than Ankiel does because he'll simply be on base more, which is even more instrumental, IMO, than having a plus bat behind him.
If we were going to make a trade for anyone right now, I would choose to make a play for Brian Roberts. He solves all of these problems:
1. Good fielding second baseman
2. Leadoff bat
3. Speed at the top of the lineup
4. Doubles power and SB in front of Albert
Considering they traded for Adam Jones, my thoughts are that we might be able to get him for some combination of bullpen arms (Motte, Mortenson, Reyes) and maybe a good young catcher (Anderson). We obviously wouldn't offer them Rasmus or Perez, but Mather/Craig is a distinct possibility because they have an aging 3B (Mora) and nobody in line to replace him.
Also, as I pointed out above, since there are only a handful of players that would scare pitchers batting behind Pujols, and those guys are all untouchable (A-Rod, Holliday, Manny, Utley), doesn't it make more sense to put a couple of people in front of Albert that get on base a lot? If there's two .370 to .400 OBP players in front of him, it makes him a lot harder to walk intentionally with those guys clogging up the basepaths. If they still want to walk him then they have to face Ankiel in the four spot who kills fastballs and would be hard to double up because of his speed. I think having two .500 slugging guys behind Pujols and two OBP guys in front of him is the best way to get people to pitch to him. In this scenario, we can keep what we have, not pay a ton of money to an overrated corner OF power hitter when we already have a couple, and trot out a lineup like this (assuming we could get Roberts...):
Roberts - 2B
Rasmus - CF
Pujols - 1B
Ankiel - RF
Glaus - 3B
Duncan - LF
Molina - C
Pitcher
Izturis - SS
If Cesar is then able to keep his OBP above .340, you essentially have three good on base people in front of Pujols.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Apr 14, 2008 12:16 PM EDT
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Oh yeah...
I've been caterwauling to get Roberts for some time now. he would definitely solidify 2nd base for 2-3 years until we grow someone better than who we have now to take over, and give us speed and pop from the lead off position, and provide very good D. The biggest hurdle, as I have mentioned before, is going to be tearing him apart from Angelos; the Baltimoo owner has some Holstein-sized man-love for Roberts. The 4 areas where the O's are deficient are: 3rd base, catcher, 1st base, and starting pitching. Either Anderson or Mather, plus Duncan, Thompson, and maybe Reyes would give us Roberts and maybe a throw-in. But only if Angelos is willing to play ball. The other good thing about this besides giving us Roberts is that it keeps the Cubs from getting him. Trust the MooCow, fellas, we'd be better off with Roberts solidifying our team with his skills than the Cubs.
If we get Roberts then I would go with:
Roberts
Barton/Rasmus
Pujols
Ankiel
Glaus
Ludwick/Barton
Moolina
Pitcher
Izturis
by The MooCow on
Apr 14, 2008 12:41 PM EDT
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Orioles have Matt Wieters
They aren't looking for a catching prospect.
by azruavatar on
Apr 14, 2008 12:43 PM EDT
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True that...
Fergot about him; then it would have to be Mather, which would be a shame since I like him a lot.
:=8/
by The MooCow on
Apr 14, 2008 12:56 PM EDT
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they also have
scott moore and mike costanzo, two decent 3B prospects who will compete for the job when the albatross that is melvin mora's contract is up. i doubt we have anything better to offer.
go cards, o's, and phillies.
...boiler up.
by moboiler on
Apr 14, 2008 1:32 PM EDT
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ok...
The point here is not to shoot down every trade because they have "prospects" -- they already had a couple good outfield prospects and still made the trade for Jones...just because a team has prospects in the pipeline doesn't mean they won't be willing to deal. You have to make them an offer and give them a chance to counter -- Angelos isn't the best owner in terms of getting return value, and never has been, so you make an offer and see if he bites.
I think Mather and Craig are better prospects than Moore and Costanzo, and the O's currently have a Kevin Millar, Aubrey Huff, Luke Scott starting at 1B, DH, LF, so Duncan would make sense for them if they truly wanted another good lefthanded bat at one of those positions. They've had nothing but trouble with their bullpen since BJ Ryan left a few years ago, so sending them bullpen/back of rotation pitchers would be in their interest. I agree, they have a bona-fide catching prospect in Wieters, but that doesn't mean that they wouldn't want to pick up one of the better minor leaguers in our system in Anderson, even if he is a catching prospect right now. I wouldn't want to give up Duncan in this deal, but with the depth the Cards have in the OF and Ludwick hitting the cover off the ball, I wouldn't be upset with this trade, and Roberts and second with Ludwick, Rasmus, and Ankiel in the outfield would make the Cardinals a much better defensive team.
We certainly have as much to offer the Baltimore club as the Cubs do, and I don't think Roberts can be in their long term plans if they are truly rebuilding, and trading Bedard certainly seems to say that they are.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Apr 14, 2008 1:56 PM EDT
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sshhh, gooch says Mathers on the DL....
by cardschinmusic on
Apr 14, 2008 2:17 PM EDT
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Be careful what you wish for
On Roberts, I went to bbref.com and looked up his career stats.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/roberbr01.shtml
He had a superb age 27 season (2005) and has been an above average player for a 2B during his career.
However, it's always useful to take a look at the comparable players to get an idea of what sort of player he's going to be like going forward.
Roberts most similar player is Marcus Giles, who's not with any major league club right now, and who's career seems to have fallen off a cliff.
#3 most similar?
Adam Kennedy.
#2 most similiar through age 29?
Adam Kennedy.
If you think Kennedy is a bust--and certainly 2007 was a bust year--then I'm not sure you want to do any shopping for Roberts.
Dave
by SydneyDave on
Apr 14, 2008 6:39 PM EDT
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Be careful...
as well when you look at the comparison metrics on baseball reference, because there are a lot of times when they don’t tell the whole story. Try this, pull up the pages for Kennedy and Giles and look at the comparables…Roberts doeesn’t show up anywhere on Kennedy’s comparables and he’s second on Giles’, but the guy who’s first is Orlando Hudson, and he’s pretty good!
Giles and Kennedy have never stolen more than 30 bases in a season, Roberts has done it in both of the previous two seasons. Roberts has 40+ doubles in three different seasons, Giles has done it twice and Kennedy hasn’t ever had more than 33 in a season. Both Giles and Kennedy have played the majority of their careers in doubles parks, as has Roberts, so the ballpark adjustment really doesn’t apply.
Another thing to look at is walk rates. Roberts would be the Cardinal leadoff hitter if he was acquired, and his walk rate has steadily risen over the course of his career, while the walk rates for both Kennedy and Giles have declined.
Career Slash Lines:
Roberts: .282/.352/.410
Giles: .277/.353/.429
Kennedy: .275/.329/.389
Now, factor in that Roberts OPS+ the last three seasons is 139, 96, 112 compared to 114, 87, 68 for Giles and 96, 86, 50 (blechhhhh!!!) for Kennedy, and I think it’s easy to see that he hasn’t fallen off nearly as much as those two guys have in the past three seasons, so I don’t think it’s a fair comparison to say that he would be a similar player going forward. Brian Giles really hasn’t been worth a crap either for the last three years, so it’s quite possible that the Giles brothers simply don’t age well. I think that it’s easy to see from the above that Roberts has been a vastly superior player to Kennedy over his entire career, and especially the last three seasons when Kennedy has shown a significant decline.
Not to mention that Roberts is off to a .327/.411/.490 start this season…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Apr 15, 2008 10:13 AM EDT
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Not Really...
Roberts has a lot more speed and SB than Giles, and more power and HRs than Kennedy, and he’s a better defender than both. Neither Giles nor Kennedy is a lead-off hitter like Roberts, nor is his career currently spiraling down the tubes like those two. Roberts is infinitely superior to both.
by The MooCow on
Apr 15, 2008 1:06 PM EDT
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I don't understand the problem
This argument seems to mirror the old old argument that the grass is greener on the other side of the fence.
The five guys sharing time in the OF this year for the Cardinals have combined for a .308/.384/.580 line so far. That blows away the "average" clean up hitter over the past few years.
Face it, Albert Pujols is going to be pitched around until the Cardinals get a hitter as good as he is to put behind him. Since there have only been a handful of guys in the history of baseball that measure up to that, I would suggest you get used to watching him walk more than you'd like.
Oh, one more thing - Delwyn Young? He's the 25th man on the Dodgers' roster with minor league stats padded by home parks in Vero Beach and Las Vegas.
"It ain't braggin' if you can back it up." - Dizzy Dean
by DizzyDean17 on
Apr 14, 2008 12:17 PM EDT
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By the way,
Young is also out of options, a major reason he is on the Dodgers' 25 man roster.
"It ain't braggin' if you can back it up." - Dizzy Dean
by DizzyDean17 on
Apr 14, 2008 1:43 PM EDT
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Delwyn Young is probably better than any prospect we have in our organization
not named Colby and certainly better than any infield prospects we have.
I fail to see why where he ranks on the Dodgers depth chart has anything to do with how good he is. He's blocked by bad contracts, aging vets and some of the guys he came up with through the Dodgers system. He's got power to all fields and a very good batting eye.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 2:07 PM EDT
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This comment reinforces my earlier comment
that you seem to believe the grass is greener on the other side of the fence.
I've seen Young try to play second base and understand the reason he has played exactly one regular season game there since 2005. If he were a viable candidate as 60 year old Jeff Kent's replacement, he'd be spending time there.
I've also been to games in Vero Beach and Las Vegas and witnessed the jet streams that benefit hitters. IMO, you are seriously over-rating the guy. He will turn 26 in June and guys with his career profile grow on trees.
He's ranked as the Dodgers' ninth best prospect and ranked as an outfielder. I'd take Mather as an OF and Gonzalez as a second baseman over him, and probably Hoffpauir.
"It ain't braggin' if you can back it up." - Dizzy Dean
by DizzyDean17 on
Apr 14, 2008 2:44 PM EDT
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re: Gonzalez
I meant Jose Martinez.
"It ain't braggin' if you can back it up." - Dizzy Dean
by DizzyDean17 on
Apr 14, 2008 2:48 PM EDT
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i was trying to picture
juan gone at second, and it just wasn't happening ;)
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
Apr 14, 2008 2:52 PM EDT
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Sometimes the grass IS greener
and the players in your own system aren't the rosy shade of red the glasses make them out to be.
Platitudes don't really make Delwyn Young less of a better option at 2B than any MIF prospect we have in our organization.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 3:05 PM EDT
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The fact that he
washed out as a second baseman is not a platitude. That's what makes him a poorer option as a MIF. He simply cannot play the position.
At this point in his career, he is a switch-hitting version of John Gall and when Nomar and LaRoche return to active status, may be available via the DFA route.
"It ain't braggin' if you can back it up." - Dizzy Dean
by DizzyDean17 on
Apr 14, 2008 3:31 PM EDT
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Then he'll be a great acquisition
via DFA.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 4:36 PM EDT
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Switch-hitting version of John Gall?
Whatever you say. You act as if Young is some fringe minor league player just trying to hang on. If he was in any other organization, he'd be a starter. He has the unfortuntate luck to be in the Dodgers organization where it is strictly a numbers game. Could he be the least talented young OF/IF the Dodgers have on the 25-man roster? Sure he could. But that doesn't detract from his skill. That 25 man roster is loaded with young talent and bad contracts that are forced into play.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 4:58 PM EDT
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Fringe player
He's almost a perfect example of a fringe player. He's in his seventh professional season and has a total of 46 major league AB's. You made a comment that he can play any position except pitcher or catcher and I strongly disagree. He is a corner outfielder, period.
As for his unfortunate luck, I would submit the Dodgers might not have given big contracts to Pierre and Jones if they shared your lofty opinion of him.
If we were to pick him up, who gets dropped? Schu can play all three positions and is a plus defender. Delwyn Young is a pretty good minor league hitter who is listed as 5'10", which is probably the usual exaggeration given to guys that are 5'8"
Ryan Ludwick has much more upside, IMO, than Young and is also a good defender. We're locked in on Barton due to his Rule 5 status. Duncan has a career OPS of ..886 and Ankiel has just begun to show what he can do.
"It ain't braggin' if you can back it up." - Dizzy Dean
by DizzyDean17 on
Apr 14, 2008 5:19 PM EDT
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Young's 2008 Baseball Prospectus write up
"Slow, unathletic, and lacking in versatility, Young is a less-than-ideal candidate for the bench; his best-case scenario involves a trade to an AL club for whom he can DH." p. 265
That meshes pretty cleanly with my first hand observations of the guy.
"It ain't braggin' if you can back it up." - Dizzy Dean
by DizzyDean17 on
Apr 14, 2008 5:49 PM EDT
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FWIW -- Baseball America 2008
"Young has electric bat speed and an above average feel for hitting. He has average power, coming more in the form of doubles than home runs. A former second baseman, his defense has improved and his arm is solid average. With below average speed, he lacks the range to play up the middle. Comparisons range from Matt Stairs to Lenny Harris, but the consensus is that Young will hit enough to have a significant major league career." pg. 246
(Note: I have no horse in this race. Just tossing those quotes in.)
by azruavatar on
Apr 14, 2008 10:28 PM EDT
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I believe a little known SS in the Cleveland system
by the name of Phillips was generally panned like this before being purchased by Cincinnati.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 11:51 PM EDT
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I don't believe this
You're suggesting that Brandon Phillips was called slow and unathletic? Please provide a link for that claim.
I've been trying to suggest to you that the guy is not a candidate to play up the middle and the scouting reports seem to agree. You keep ignoring those assessments of the guy for reasons that aren't very clear to me.
We don't need another candidate to play a corner outfield position.
"It ain't braggin' if you can back it up." - Dizzy Dean
by DizzyDean17 on
Apr 15, 2008 12:20 AM EDT
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I know longer have a subscription to BP
but check I believe his 2005 player card.
That Baseball Prospectus description is flatly false. To say Young lack versatility is misleading. He is generally rated a C defender at SS and in the OF with a good strong arm. I heard somewhere that he is also able to play catcher from time to time.
He's a plus hitter and an average defender at worst. While we may have better MIF defenders in the system, I don't believe we have any comparable players offensively.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 15, 2008 12:38 AM EDT
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I never said that Phillips was called slow or unathletic
he was, however, generally panned right before his trade (under similiar circumstances) by the Indians to the Reds. He found himself behind Peralta and Belliard, and I believe and ancient Omar Vizquel at SS.
I'll take average defense at 2B if it means the massive improvement offensively that he would bring.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 15, 2008 12:40 AM EDT
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BP
says that Shapiro asked too much for him in trade at the deadline (anyone know what the asking price was?), but the only negative thing they say about him is that his 2006 AAA season was "his worst minor league season since first reaching Triple-A as member of the Expos` system in 2002. He is now firmly ensconced in the "Promising Prospects Mysteriously Gone Bad" category."
They praise the Reds pickup, saying it was a "A perfect free-talent pickup", and that he has good power and defense.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
Apr 15, 2008 12:59 AM EDT
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Where do you get your stats?
Delwyn Young has never played an inning of professional baseball at shortstop. How can he be rated by anybody as a C defender there?
He's never caught as a pro, either. I've already pointed out that he has played exactly one game at second base since 2005. He is, plain and simple, a corner outfielder. You need to check your sources.
I'm not panning his offensive abilities, although I have suggested he has played in excellent hitting environments. There is simply not much of a chance that he will ever be considered for a job as a middle infielder in MLB.
"It ain't braggin' if you can back it up." - Dizzy Dean
by DizzyDean17 on
Apr 15, 2008 12:59 AM EDT
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That should read 2B
not SS. Error on my part. I never meant to imply he has spent any time at SS, only 2B.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 15, 2008 1:06 AM EDT
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Young...
would not be an improvement over Brian Roberts, IMO, although me would be a slight improvement over Kennedy (in hitting anyway); but we have no room for him in the outfield. it almost sounds like he needs to start taking balls at first base…
:=8/
by The MooCow on
Apr 15, 2008 1:12 PM EDT
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question
it seems like batting order gets debated on this site more than any other topic not named anthony reyes. is everyone really convinced it makes that much of a difference? is everyone really convinced that pujols would be more "protected" by any of these pickups (if "protection" even exists)?
i enjoyed the post and the delwyn young idea. i share the dream of a better MIFer. we need good hitters there before we wring our hands about constructing a flawless batting order.
by baw on
Apr 14, 2008 1:19 PM EDT
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I don't think set spots in the order as much as
the hitter directly behind Pujols being strong enough to make teams take pause with loading the bases in the 8th inning of a ballgame, having a 2 run lead and 2 outs in the inning.
I know yesterday was an instance of pinch-hitting but seeing Skippy once again weakly ground out to an IF somewhat highlights this point.
Also, this team is winning on playing fundamentally sound baseball. Things like taking the extra base, hit-and-run, etc. The problem is, with guys like Duncan and Ludwick batting behind Pujols, it almost penalizes the hitters in front of Pujols to hit a double because it instantly takes the bat out of Albert's hand.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 1:57 PM EDT
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I'm sorry, HL
I don't follow what you were trying to say in the above post in the first 3 lines, but I do understand the 4th and 5th lines as being your 99th shot Skippy and you accuse me of attacking you when I disagree.
by ridgesee on
Apr 14, 2008 8:03 PM EDT
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I also didn't create the protection scenerio
Mozeliak did. I think he can somewhat see through the hot start by Ludwick and realizes that the odds of Chris Duncan playing a full, productive season at the MLB level are slim and knows that he will need to provide some kind of 'umph' in back of Pujols full-time going forward with this team.
Saying "Well, Glaus/Ludwick/Duncan" can provide protection for Pujols is all well and good for April of 2008, but what about April of 2009? Some mid-peak MiLB talent players are hitting their stride the last few years (Skippy/Ludwick) but are they long for rebuilding this teams lineup? Probably not. Ankiel can carve out a nice 5 year run here with the Cardinals in all likelihood as an everyday player and at some point, Chris Duncan is going to get pretty expensive for a 1 dimensional player.
Mozeliak may have 2 strengths to deal from: Starting pitching and OF depth, during this season. It would be nice to see him turn the OF depth into a MIF and the starting pitcher into a power hitting OF, both of which as long term solutions. Whether he can do that or not remains to be seen.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 2:02 PM EDT
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i agree with you
on several points; i just don't know that there's any hitter in baseball that's going to make some 8th-inning guy decide "god, i'd better pitch to pujols" in a close game with RISP. if it's an uber-streaky guy like burrell, any protection could be feast or famine. it could VERY well be famine with a bay or a baldelli.
i guess i'd rather see tony stick the hot hitter behind pujols and see what happens. i guess that's my view on lineup construction in general.
bonds had little protection in 2004 (IIRC), walked 9,000 times and that team won 91 games (beating its pythagorean).
by baw on
Apr 14, 2008 2:12 PM EDT
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That's true
it's not really going to force a pitcher to Pujols but we can hope to actually punish them when they choose to just put him on in those situations.
The way the lineup is currently constructed, even in the 1st inning, a pitcher can put Pujols one, quickly dispatch of a our .240 hitter following him and then face the possibility of Glaus, our C that day and our 2B that day. Not exactly a very hard inning. Follow that up the next inning with an almost sure out of the pitcher leading off and the #9 hitter (the 2nd worst hitter that day) and we've basically given away 3 innings of offense.
I don't know that a power bat behind Pujols really changes that but I'd sure like to try it and see.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 2:17 PM EDT
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i hope mo can do it
and, like you said, i hope he can do it in a way that helps us long-term.
i also hope "the possibility of Glaus" becomes worth more than a passing mention!
by baw on
Apr 14, 2008 2:29 PM EDT
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I am convinced that you consider this to be a big problem HL
and you listed Barry Bonds as "the best quick fix" so yes or no, is it Bonds you think we need
by ridgesee on
Apr 14, 2008 8:13 PM EDT
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By the numbers it adds up
But do we *really* want it? I mean seriously.
We just got out of the Rolen drama, traded Jimmy to keep from having the platoon drama, and now we're going to be front and center in the Bonds drama? Yeah, Tony supports it so it wouldn't be internal. But still.
And I still don't think we can afford him, or want to shell out that much for a single season. Bonds is going to be the definitive looking DH later in the year when the AL starts looking for one to solidify contending. While he may not like waiting till the trade deadline, or even the all star break, you'd have to think that he's going to hold out for some DH lovin'.
by AdjustedExpectations on
Apr 14, 2008 8:28 PM EDT
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No
It isn't Bonds.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 9:18 PM EDT
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For those that believe the rosy start to the season
also shows that the #4 spot in the lineup is not a major problem, 12 games in our #4 hitter is hitting:
.240/.316/.420/.736
League average:
.260/.343/.462/.805
Either a) we lack a cleanup hitter or b)TLR is constructing the lineup poorly.
But, also factor in that this is a small sample size...something that cuts both ways when talking about a player like Ludwick in the #4 hole.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 2:14 PM EDT
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or c) glaus/duncan started in a bit of a slump
and will be fine in a month or so.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
Apr 14, 2008 2:54 PM EDT
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Or d) Chris Duncan has nothing to do with the #4 slot
since he hasn't started a single game in that spot in the order.
Ankiel has started 6 games at cleanup, Glaus has started 6 and Ludwick has started 1. Glaus hit .217, Ankiel hit .227. Ankiel is batting over .300 in 27 at-bats elsewhere in the lineup, while hitting that .227 in 22 ABs as the cleanup hitter. Glaus has as many ABs hitting #4 as he does #5 and his OPS jumps .200 in the latter spot.
These are small sample sizes, obviously.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 3:11 PM EDT
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In the Izturis fanpost the other day, Hardcore
you took the opinion that you can't draw anything from small sample sizes, like the one the Izturis has started the season with. You also can't draw anything from the small sample sizes to start the year from the 4 spot. If you look back at the community projections for Ankiel and Duncan, they were projected to hit between 25-30 homers and have slash lines such as .270/.325/.500 for Ank and around .275/.340/.490 for Duncan. Add Glaus into that mix with a .260/.350/.520 and you have your league average cleanup hitter as you were talking about. Don't use an argument of small sample size against someone else and then use it to establish your own theory. I think the team has more pressing needs than another power hitter, especially considering that Duncan and Glaus have yet to get going.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Apr 14, 2008 3:28 PM EDT
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I'm not using small sample sizes except to refute
other small sample sizes.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 4:38 PM EDT
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That's not true...
All the poster was simply saying is that Glaus and Duncan have started slowly—if you compare their numbers this year to their career numbers I would say that’s the case. Ankiel hasn’t hit well in the cleanup spot, but I think he needs more AB’s there to get comfortable. Duncan hasn’t had any AB’s there because he’s been banged up.
As I said, you average those three guys together and they give you your prototypical league average #4 hitter. Considering the complete lack of good options in your original post, I can’t see the Birds adding anyone who would be more productive than the three players that we currently have.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Apr 15, 2008 10:22 AM EDT
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Complete lack of good options?
Ha. Nice.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 15, 2008 12:02 PM EDT
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i should have been more clear
Duncan hasn't been used in the cleanup spot because he was slumping in the spring and the first couple of games he played. In a month, he will almost certainly be recognized as, if not the best, a very good option for that role. Your post seems to me to be about trying to decide who the best guy for the 4th spot is, and imho we DON'T lack a cleanup hitter. As others have said, we have at least 4 guys who can fill that role: ludwick, ankiel, duncan and glaus.
Anyway, for reference: in 30 plate appearances, assuming a 10% walk rate, one base hit is worth 75 points of OPS and a single home run is worth .185. 30 PA's is a very, very small sample size, especially for power hitters.
And I awoke in California, far far from Spancilhill...
by SleepyCA on
Apr 14, 2008 4:00 PM EDT
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Where did you find this league average ...
For the 4 spot? ... I’ve been researching for hours, and found the league averages by Position on THT, and even the best OPS’s by Batting Order slot somewhere else, but I can’t find average lines for Batting Order slots … Thanks in advance for any help you can provide …
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on
Apr 16, 2008 4:00 PM EDT
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I checked baseball-reference
as I said in the post. It was a quick and dirty way of doing it, simply looking at the 4th place hitters for those years in the NL. That, of course, brings in the occasional PH and so forth but it was just meant as a jumping off point, not a case study.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 16, 2008 4:38 PM EDT
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Thanks a bunch ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on
Apr 17, 2008 12:36 PM EDT
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Two words
So Taguchi. DO IT!
Rasmus or bust.
by Zoop on
Apr 14, 2008 2:18 PM EDT
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Please don't bring back memories of late 2005
when we had Edmonds hitting #2, Pujols #3, Molina #4 and Scott Seabol hitting #5.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 2:19 PM EDT
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You've just answered your own question
Molina has a home run. Make it happen.
Rasmus or bust.
by Zoop on
Apr 14, 2008 2:20 PM EDT
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Tell Glaus hes hitting 5 and put him in the 4 spot, after the pitchers bats 8th, maybe he'll think its true for the rest of the game unless he thinks too much.
Im torn on Ludwick tho, now wondering if he should hit 4 in front of Glaus against RHP. WHY NOT AP in the 4 hole...oh yeah, TLR makes out the line-up.
Still yet, no solution appears to be one that would allow AP to see fastballs over the plate in the late innings.
The D. Young kid in LA might be another solution altogether re: the IF... if theres anthing we have the Dodgers need that we dont need.
by cardschinmusic on
Apr 14, 2008 2:38 PM EDT
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Pujols doesn't bat 4th
because it makes sense to have your best hitter in a position to have as many ABs as possible. Now, within reason. Pujols batting leadoff is a fun idea but not practical.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 2:42 PM EDT
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No really great hall
hitter has ever batted cleanup that I can recall, all bat third, Musial, Mays, Williams etc. Maybe Ruth and Mantle some, but not much. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong. Also there was some talk back in the early fifties that batting your best hitter first and I know that Boston considered hitting Williams first but can't recall if they actually tried it. This came from old "the Sporting News" articles back when Sporting News was a baseball publication exclusively.
by ridgesee on
Apr 14, 2008 11:22 PM EDT
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Lou Gehrig
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
by cardzfan24 on
Apr 14, 2008 11:27 PM EDT
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Indeeeeeed
If you truly want to solve the Cardinals cleanup hitter position then the discussion should begin and end with Bonds.
He is currently a FA, so it would cost us nothing but money, and the guy can flat out produce.
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
by cardzfan24 on
Apr 15, 2008 1:59 PM EDT
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A few more....
Harmon Killebrew, Willie McCovey, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Willie Stargell, Dave Winfield, Albert Belle, Fred McGriff, Carlos Delgado, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez
that is quite a list of cleanup hitters, and I am sure I am leaving many out.
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
by cardzfan24 on
Apr 14, 2008 11:36 PM EDT
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Fred McGriff and Carlos Delgado
aren't HOF'ers and never will be.
Very good players, don't get me wrong.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on
Apr 14, 2008 11:50 PM EDT
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Very true
I just kept going and listed great cleanup hitters even if there resume isn't quite Hall-worthy
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
by cardzfan24 on
Apr 15, 2008 1:02 AM EDT
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Mr. October
Reggie Jackson would have to be on that list—he batted 4th nearly his entire career.
Manny and A-Rod have both hit third quite a bit in their careers.
Other than those two, what do most of those guys have in common? TONS OF STRIKEOUTS! Pujols doesn’t strike out hardly ever, which puts him in a different class of hitter—similar to A-Rod, Griffey(in his prime), Mantle, Musial, and Williams in that those guys could hit for average as well as power and not strike out a ton.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Apr 15, 2008 10:27 AM EDT
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We have a cleanup hitter his name is
Rick Ankiel.
He is leading the team in Homeruns and runs batted in as well as on the leader board in both categories for the NL.
Also I don't remeber who but there was a nice article about Rick and his game winning RBIs so far this year as well as his knack for being involved in a high percentage of our runs this year so far.
None of those guys listed looks good enough to me to be an upgrade over Rick.
"Why does he keep saying that?"
by Red Blazer on
Apr 14, 2008 3:21 PM EDT
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Now close your eyes
and imagine those numbers should he carry better plate discipline. I love Rick, but it's easy to see how he'll do during a game based on how he is in the first inning. When he starts hacking, and first pitch swinging, it drives me nuts.
by AdjustedExpectations on
Apr 14, 2008 9:01 PM EDT
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Exactly
He doesn't have the discipline required to work a count and get the pitches he needs to see as #4. I like him hitting in front of Albert.
"Dude, we're running out of stadium" - said on the way to our seats in Section 428.
by bukowski on
Apr 14, 2008 9:26 PM EDT
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Hitting in front of Albert does seem to have an effect on his pitch selection and overall discipline, probably because the he’s not thinking so much and theres less pressure to drive in runs….more of a “just get on base/hit the ball hard” approach so AP can drive in runs. Batting 4th or 5th he might be feeling more pressure and more inclined to start hacking.
But would’nt it be something if Ank developes down the road, matures to the point he can draw a walk or steadily hit to the opposite field with a couple of runners on.
by cardschinmusic on
Apr 15, 2008 6:59 AM EDT
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just wish the numbers backed up the 4th spot to make it a little easier to slot him there
small samples, as with rick they all are:
4th
.156/.250/.281 in 36 PA
2nd
.306/.348/.619 in 162 PA
w/ 2 outs (much more likely in 4th, than 2nd)
.146/.240/.303
w/ 1 out (much more likely in 2nd than 4th)
.298/.339/.462
The classic protect Albert scenario. Someone on 2nd, walk Albert to face Rick (runners on first and second)
.185/.241/.185 in 30 PA
Numbers don’t bode well for the 4th slot with his current approach to hitting. His K’s are abysmal :(
by AdjustedExpectations on
Apr 15, 2008 8:27 AM EDT
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K's
Of the above listed 4th place HOF hitters, who doesn’t strike out a lot on that list? Nearly all of them do.
How much do you want a guy to improve his plate discipline when I think his lack of discipline sometimes is the reason for his success?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Apr 15, 2008 10:30 AM EDT
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I love Rick as much as the next guy, but there’s no way anyone can correlate him and any of those guys in that list. Not now, he doesn’t even have a full season of AB’s under his belt (he has what ,300ish?.. total?).
Which leads to the whole issue when thinking about where he’s going to be successful. Small sample size.
Over the past two years, he looks awful in cleanup, this year alone? Not too bad. We’re talking 26 at bats though.
But my point on discipline, and the stats back it up.. when he is ahead in the count? All of his numbers bottom out, considerably. Which is the main sign of chasing pitches. He’s not letting the count work in his favor, and that is baseball 101.
Again, small numbers mean little in the scheme of things, but putting Rick in cleanup is based off of small numbers. In my post way above, I actually suggested him in 4th, even with the discipline issues. Because of the potential he represents, but while the stats still show a strong showing in the 2 slot, it’s hard to argue it.
by AdjustedExpectations on
Apr 15, 2008 1:14 PM EDT
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That's an argument
for putting Ank in 3 and AP in 4.
"Dude, we're running out of stadium" - said on the way to our seats in Section 428.
by bukowski on
Apr 15, 2008 5:42 PM EDT
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Does anybody like Brandon Wood?
This guy had a .321/.383/.672 line with 51 2B and 43 HR as a 20 year old in high A ball. In two years since then he has hit 48 more homers in AA and AAA. He was originally a SS but is now listed as a third basemen. Something tells me this might have something to do with the Angels' buttload of MI prospects: Aybar, Kendrick, Izturis. Why not acquire him and see if he can play SS or teach him 2nd. He may not be ready this year but hed have to give us more than AK at some point.
by RayMonD! on
Apr 14, 2008 3:44 PM EDT
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Actually
it has a lot more to do with him not being a very good defensive SS. He's also been hurt a bit the last couple of years and he hasn't really hit at the big league level as of yet. The Angels also drive an awfully tough bargain when you're dealing with them, and getting Wood without giving up a large portion of the farm would probably mean that they've totally soured on him, which wouldn't necessarily be good for us either.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on
Apr 14, 2008 3:51 PM EDT
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Bad Hawpe
Since you brought up the Rockie's 3 baseman, why not bring up right field?
last year he hit .291, 116 RBIs with 33 2B and 29 HRs. He slugged .539 with an OBP of .387.
Not sure what kind of contact he is under, but he may be a nice young outfield to pickup, who has proven successful.
I think he is a Chris Duncan-type player, but with better fielding and a better clubhouse presence that party-boy Duncan. Overall, the more refined, import version.
Not sure what kind of contract COL has him locked up in, though.
His backup, Ryan Spilborghs, posts similar numbers extended out to a full season. He could be a nice pickup and likely cheaper to acquire than Hawpe. Only issue is he is not too different that the Taguchis/Ludwicks/Schumakers/Mabrys/Lankfords we have had rotating in the outfields in the past.
by Cards81fan on
Apr 14, 2008 4:08 PM EDT
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Joe Crede
Of course, we could take a gamble on Crede. He's having a career year (after hitting .216 last year - ouch) and the Sox have the 3B they want playing in Josh Fields.
Crede's a MO native too, from Jeff City/Westphalia.
by Cards81fan on
Apr 14, 2008 4:15 PM EDT
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given the makeup of our team, the power seems to be pretty evenly balanced save for the 2B position (we can afford just have OBP from SS, and Yadi is pretty clutch at times). So that's the main thing that bothers me. I think Ludwick at times will be our best option as cleanup, and Ank and Glaus should get better too. The main key, I think, is Barton leading off, but that's a whole new debate.
Ankiel is Jesus!
by Cards Fan in Chitown on
Apr 14, 2008 5:20 PM EDT
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Why Not Jeff Kent
for the numerous reasons mentioned in these posts, this might make sense for us.
1. high doubles/RBI hitter with strong average and OBP/OPS.
2. 2baseman
3. short term financial commitment to 2008
The only con I really can see is his age. Frankly, he's still hitting, has always hit, and since the Larry Walker acquisition was met with so much praise, i just don't see why this would be a problem. With the dodgers' talent waiting in the wings (i.e. young and kuo) I think this makes so much sense.
by timmycardinals on
Apr 14, 2008 5:33 PM EDT
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Please, no
I despise the guy, personally. Much worse than Bonds.
Rasmus or bust.
by Zoop on
Apr 14, 2008 6:04 PM EDT
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moral fiber
you'd rather have the supreme of all head cases over a HOF that has revamped the offensive production seen at 2B?
by timmycardinals on
Apr 14, 2008 6:16 PM EDT
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I like how you
refer to Kent as a HOF but Bonds is just a headcase. Bonds did a lot more to revamp the concept of offensive contribution period than Kent could ever hope to. To mention them in the same breath is absurd.
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
by cardzfan24 on
Apr 15, 2008 2:01 PM EDT
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to add to Kent
I think we could get him relatively cheaply in terms of prospects, he wouldn't alter our team makeup or our farm system that we finally like, and if he did well, he might be open to signing a one/two year commitment I know Bill DEWALLET DeWitt couldn't argue too strongly against.
His age is the absolute only potential problem.
by timmycardinals on
Apr 14, 2008 5:35 PM EDT
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ha
that's kind of like checking out some cougar at a bar and saying age is the absolute only potential problem.
age is one problem that brings on a whole slate of others. kent just hasn't been super healthy the past couple years.
by baw on
Apr 14, 2008 7:33 PM EDT
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If age wasn't the concern
then Gomez (Pit) and Durham (SF) would have to be on the discussion list. Even Belliard, though that experiment wasn't exactly fruitful.
Velez from San Fran would be sweet in my opinion, but I'm speed bias and I don't know if he's a true improvement besides speed.
by AdjustedExpectations on
Apr 14, 2008 8:12 PM EDT
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