Todd Wellemeyer – never really been a fan. Well, that’s not exactly true. He’s got pretty good stuff but he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher. Still, they’re two pretty good pitches – a good, hard fastball and a tight slider. I’ve just always seen him as a better fit for the bullpen – b/c of his lack of a solid third pitch and the fact that he has historically had such a problem w/ walks. His career BB/9 is 5.49 and last year w/ the Cards it was more than 4 per 9 IP.

I am, however, starting to wonder if he’s not becoming a different pitcher. He’s still got the two solid pitches but yesterday was his third solid starter out of 3 this year. I know, his stats don’t look that great in the boxscore b/c things did unravel in the 6th but he entered the inning having given up 1 hit and 2 BB’s. He ended up striking out 7 in 6 IP. We are still only talking about 3 starts but it’s a pretty good string he’s putting together nonetheless.

Toward the end of spring training, there was some discussion (you may have noticed it, not sure) about who would fill the final two spots in the rotation. Yesterday’s closer – Anthony Reyes – was left out of the rotation in favor of Brad Thompson (who has since been replaced by today’s starter) and Wellemeyer. At the time, Duncan said he was most impressed w/ Wellemeyer’s ability to "control pitch counts" – implying a reduction in walks. I excoriated him on a number of occasions about this seemingly ridiculous statement b/c, at the time, Wellemeyer had walked 9 batters in 12 IP. He finished the spring w/ 11 BB and 10 K in 20 IP – not exactly Cy Young numbers. Still, he’s begun the regular season now w/ 7 BB and 20 K in 18 IP – a distinct improvement.

It would be pretty surprising if Wellemeyer were able to maintain this sort of improvement throughout the entire season. He’ll be 30 in August – not the age one generally peaks – and has 155 career BB in 254 career IP over parts of 6 seasons. This guy was released by the Royals last year. Why the improvement? It’s all luck, isn’t it?

The short answer is – no, it’s not just luck. He does have really good stuff but that’s not new. What is new is his ability to throw strikes. His BB rate, as shown above, is becoming more and more respectable. Yesterday he threw 60 of his 93 pitches for strikes – 64.5 %. For the year, he’s thrown 175 of his 271 pitches for strikes – 64.5 %. This is a huge improvement for Wellemeyer. Last year as a Cardinal he threw 63 % of his pitches for strikes and overall, including his time w/ the Royals, he threw 62% of his pitches for strikes. His strike percentages from 2003-2006 were 59.2, 57.1, 59.5, and 58.7, respectively. I’m not sure why he’s become much more adept at throwing strikes but the improvement is undeniable, even for doubters like me, and it just might bode well for his ability to remain a solid member of our rotation.

Though he’s a two-pitch pitcher, his stuff is really good. His ability to miss bats may be the best in the rotation, Wainwright included. Last year, 14.1 % of Wellemeyer’s strikes and 8.8 % of the pitches he threw were swinging strikes. Wainwright’s percentages were 12.6 % and 7.8 %. In fact, no Cardinal starter other than Chris Carpenter in the last several years has had a higher percentage of swing-and-misses than Todd Wellemeyer. In fairness, Wellemeyer did have 21 relief appearances to 11 starts last year but he still had more IP as a starter than as a reliever. This guy has good stuff, misses bats, and, increasingly, is throwing strikes. That can’t be bad.

I’m not completely sold yet as we are just talking about 18 IP this year and the 6th inning implosion does cause us to wonder if he’s ever going to be able to put together more than 5 IP. Last year, only twice did he pitch as many as 6 IP and never got an out in the 7th as a starter. He did go 7 IP in his 2nd start this year but he gave up 2 big back-to-back jacks from Berkman and Lee in the 7th. Entering the 6th yesterday he had thrown 70 pitches – a pretty good number after 5 and then the wheels came off. He gave up homers to the pitcher and something called a Bowker, he walked Jose Castillo, gave up hits to Molina and Fred Lewis, and got a line-drive out from Randy Winn. His numbers so far this year after 76 pitches aren’t good – 5-12 w/ 2 BB’s and 3 HR’s. It’s a horrendously small sample size but fits what we’ve known about him – that, aside from his trouble throwing strikes in the past, he has trouble pitching past 5 innings. His career numbers are pretty good after 75 pitches but it’s hard to know what to make of that stat – any time he’s pitched over 75 pitches, he’s been pitching very well.

Let’s say that he has turned a corner w/ regard to his ability to throw strikes. The one issue w/ his being a starter, then, is his ability to pitch 6+ innings as 4-5 will carve the bullpen to pieces over a long season. Does he run into trouble b/c he runs out of gas or b/c hitters are seeing him for the 3rd time and they’re exposing his lack of a solid third pitch. It would seem to me (and I’m certainly no pitching expert) that the former is better than the latter. If it is a question of stamina, being out there and throwing pitches will help to build that stamina. If the problem is that hitters are getting a read on him after seeing him twice, that’s going to be a big problem if he can’t improve his changeup. Anyway, I’m starting to become a believer. Let’s hope he can keep it up.

There are a couple of other things I’d like to discuss and the first relates to much of yesterday’s discussion re: the Cardinal OF’s. I’m linking the baron’s Saturday post but it spilled over into the game threads. As I’ve said a few times in the last couple of times, I’m surprised w/ the frustration that many have shown with Chris Duncan. Some of us have argued for more Barton and some of us argue for more Skip. Some don’t like Skip much and some want to see more Ludwick. It occurred to me that the problem right now is two-fold: 1 – all of our OF’s are playing pretty well right now and we can only play 3 of the 5; 2 – all of them are inherently flawed in some way that lends them to criticism.

For example, Duncan has started to put together a pretty good career w/ a .356 OBP and a SLG of .520. His career OPS+ is 124 – about what Carlos Lee’s is. We also know, however, that his defense is horrible. He’s basically a 1B/DH playing LF. We also know that he can be vulnerable to left-handed pitchers.

Skip can play all 3 defensive positions and has begun this year w/ a .368 OBP out of the leadoff spot before failing to reach base in 3 PA’s yesterday. However, he has little power and little base-stealing ability. Therefore, offensively he’s very limited.

Ludwick has power and can play all 3 positions but will be 30 in July and, as a righty, has been unable to hit lefties throughout his career. Barton is young and has speed and some pop but Tony seems to believe his defense, like Duncan’s, limits him to LF. He’s never really been seen by scouts as anything more than a 4th OF. Even Ankiel is flawed. He has tremendous power and the athleticism to play CF but has very few major league PA’s on which to judge him. As hot as he’s begun the year, his OBP is still just .333 and he’ll be 29 the day after Ludwick turns 30.

It’s reasonable to want one to play at the expense of another as they all have distinct strengths and weaknesses and as long as they’re all playing well, Tony’s got a nice problem to have. It seems to me that Ankiel and Duncan have to play more than the others, as they provide more to the offense than the others seem to be capable of. That’s not a knock on the others but those two simply have more power than the others and Duncan supplements his w/ a solid OBP. Still, Ludwick had a 178 OPS+ before yesterday’s game when he went 1 for 2 w/ a big homer. Until someone plays his way OUT of the lineup, it’s going to be difficult for Tony to decide and, it seems to me, difficult to criticize the decision.

I’d like to see more of Barton, also, but w/ the way the others are hitting, it’s reasonable to play Ludwick, Skip, or Duncan against a right-handed pitcher. It’s not necessarily a lack of faith in the young guy or a belief that he can’t hit righties. He’s trying to put together the best lineup he can and right now he’s got 5 choices for 3 positions. I guess he could sit Albert, put Duncan at 1B and start 3 others in the OF. That’d allow him to play 4 OF’s but I’d rather Albert be in the lineup.

I do have to say that after vociferously defending Duncan, I feel somewhat vindicated by his game yesterday – 3 for 5 w/ a BB, a 2B, and a HR. Even when he’s not hitting for power, he does know the strike zone and get on base via walks and we know the power will be there. It hasn’t disappeared and it won’t be that long before he’s able to make something happen w/ his bat. Maybe yesterday jump-started his season.

The last thing I’m going to discuss is in regards to Aaron Miles’ 10th inning bunt yesterday. It appeared as though it was going to be for naught when Izturis struck out, bringing Duncan to the plate w/ 2 outs after Ludwick was intentionally walked. Duncan was able to get the game-winning hit. After the K, I ranted "I hate sac bunts. I hate sac bunts. I hate sac bunts." After settling down w/ a couple of pops and a 10th inning victory, I would like to clarify one thing – "I hate sac bunts!!!!!!!!!!!" My rantings notwithstanding, Tony’s decision in the 10th was, apparently, the correct one.

According to Tom Tango’s The Book, bunting w/ runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out reduces the run expectancy from 1.573 runs to 1.467 runs. In other words, teams who bunt in those situations cost themselves about 1/10th of a run by doing so. However, in the top of the 10th in a tie game, that bunt increases the team’s win expectancy from 69.8% to 71.3% -- not a huge increase, I’ll grant you, but it does increase the likelihood of winning. The numbers from fangraphs show the same thing -- that the Giants’ likelihood of winning went from 30.2% to 28.4% with the bunt (meaning that the Cards’ chances went from 69.8% to 71.6%). So, Tony’s move was the correct one. Sorry, Tony.

That said, and I couldn’t watch the game as I was treated to Fox’s endless rain delay bullshit around this time, I assume in this situation that the Giants, expecting the bunt, were charging with their 1st and 3rd basemen while their SS went to cover 3B and their 2B went to cover 1B. This would have left the entire middle of the field undefended and made a double-play nearly impossible. If Miles had pulled the ‘ol butcher-boy play – faking the bunt and swinging away, as long as he kept it on the ground he would’ve stayed out of the DP and had a great chance of reaching base himself. This would have, of course, created a bases-loaded, no out situation for Izturis. That would’ve increased our likelihood of winning to 83.2%. Is it a gamble? Maybe but w/ the 1st and 3rd basemen charging, a bad bunt gets the lead runner and possibly a double play. The butcher-boy play may have been less of a gamble, with a higher payoff, than the bunt. Because the bunt worked, however, (by getting the runners over) Tony’s move was the right one and my rants should have been directed towards Izturis’ strikeout and not the sac bunt.

It’ll be another tough one today. Pineiro throws his first game of the season against Lincecum. I’d expect to see Barton, Ankiel and either Skip or Ludwick. Someone will probably curse LaRussa – "bleeping, bleeping Tony, aren’t you ever going to give Duncan a chance to hit lefties?!!!!!! He hit a homer and had the game-winning hit yesterday!!!!!!" They’ll be right, of course. I guess it’s too bad none of them can play 2B and SS.