Wanted -- Lefty-basher extraordinaire
Two seasons ago, the Cards were positively woeful against left-handed pitching, mustering a .264/.330/.401 line against southpaws. Their slugging and OPS in '06 against lefties were good enough for 28th and 27th in baseball, respectively. Last year, curiously, the team improved slightly against lefties. Their batting average improved to .276 and their OBP improved by 20 points to .370. Unfortunately, the .401 slugging percentage was exactly what it was in 2006 and the team finished 27th in baseball in slugging, and 23rd in OPS in 2007.
For at least 2 years, the Cards have really struggled against left-handers. In 2007, one of the Cards' best hitters against lefties was So Taguchi. Despite many complaints from the fanbase about So, he was a very valuable player in the 4 full seasons he spent in a Cardinal uniform. Last year, only Albert had a higher OPS among semi-regular players against left-handed pitchers. So's .314/.370/.390 line made him a valuable contributor to last year's team. Granted, a .390 SLG hardly makes him a slugger and So was never known as such (save 1 great NLCS AB) during his tenure in St. Louis, but a .370 OBP is nothing to sneeze at. So had the most AB's and the 2nd most PA's on the team vs. lefties in 2007.
Still, it was clear this offseason that the team was going to try to find a way to improve its performance vs. lefties. To that end, the team brought in Josh Phelps and Juan Gonzalez as minor league free agents and added Joe Mather to the 40-man roster. I must admit finding Phelps' addition a little curious. It's not as if the team isn't set at 1B, Phelps' natural position, and with no DH, it just didn't seem to make a lot of sense. Even w/ Spiezio's departure, it seems as though Duncan would take over at 1B in the event that Albert went down w/ an injury for an extended period of time and Phelps has played exactly 0 games as a big-league OF.
Gonzalez's addition was only slightly less curious as he's had exactly 1 major-league PA since 2004. His arrival has been more noteworthy this spring as Tony seems to be hoping for a return to the glory days and those of us hoping the team will get younger this year cringe every time Gonzalez gets a spring PA. Among the three, therefore, Mather is probably the one who is most interesting.
It's worth noting that the search for a lefty-mashing OF would be made a lot easier if there was any indication that Ryan Ludwick might be able to fill that role. While Ludwick had a pretty good season in '07, he was hardly a lefty-masher. His .221/.307/.377 line against southpaws was pretty well in line with his career numbers (.211/.286/.418). Granted, it's only 139 PA's in '07 and 285 for his career - a pretty small sample - but, as I said, there's really nothing there to indicate any real improvement in his ability to hit lefties.
So while it's difficult to envision an OF w/o Ryan Ludwick in it this year, it's also hard to believe that he's what Tony is looking for against left-handed pitchers. Brian Barton was added, of course, as a Rule 5 player but there's been much written about how he doesn't seem to be in Tony's plans for '08, despite a strong start to the spring. Therefore, maybe Mather's the guy.
To date, only Rick Ankiel and Ludwick have more spring AB's than Mather's 21 (though Barton, Schumaker, and Gonzalez also have 21). Mather's a 25 year old former 3B and 1B who was drafted in the 3rd round in 2001. He's a huge guy in the mold of Chris Duncan - 6'5" and 210 lbs. - and has power to spare. Last year he blasted 31 HR's between Springfield and Memphis w/ a combined .357 OBP and .522 SLG. He also manages to get his bat on the ball, having never struck out more than 91 times in a season, despite his power numbers.
The writers at called Mather the 15th and 16th best prospect in the Cards' system entering this season. John Sickels has Mather at 16, Baseball America has him at 13, and Kevin Goldstein has him at 10. Goldstein calls says about Mather that "(his) raw power is the best in the system" and that despite being "a below-average outfielder," "his arm is above-average." That last part should give him a leg up on Brian Barton. He couldn't play CF, of course, but would be serviceable in either RF or LF.
It's only been 21 AB's this spring, but he's started off w/ a robust .381/.500/.714 line that has made him worthy of Tony's attention. He has just the 1 homer but also has 2 2B's and 3 BB's. He has struck out 5 times, which might be an indicator of his readiness, considering it is higher than his minor league K rate but, considering the fact that he's absolutely pummeling the ball right now, the 5 K's aren't a serious problem as of yet.
While several of the Cardinal hitters are having strong springs to start off, it's difficult to find another Cardinal who's been better this spring (non-Albert competition) than Mather. Barton, Schumaker, Ankiel, Glaus, and even Ludwick and Gonzalez (and, of course, Rasmus) have all been very strong through their first 20-25 PA's, but none has a higher SLG than Mather, and only Glaus' OBP is higher. If he can keep it up, he's got a good chance to make it.
More to the point - can he hit lefties? In 2007 at Springfield, he hit lefties to the tune of .389/.477/.685 - an OPS of 1.162 - not too shabby. Upon moving up to AAA, he struggled somewhat, against both righties and lefties and only had 68 PA's against lefties. His OPS was a Taguchi-like .703. Still, it's reasonable to think that, if he is ready to hit major-league pitching, he could be much stronger against lefties than Ludwick has been or than Taguchi was during his tenure in St. Louis.
In other news, the Cards were able to hold the Dodgers to 20 yesterday but could only muster a couple of field goals as the Dodgers won by 2 TD's. Looper was on the mound. As someone who charted Looper's games last year and remembers the Tigers and the A's each going for about 14 in games started by Looper, I can't help but wonder if we'll see more games w/ Miles or someone else on the mound this year.
Reyes goes again today for the good guys. He's had 1 good one and 1 not-so-good. Hopefully, we'll see another good one today. As most know, I've always been a Reyes-rooter. Even if you're not, he's going to have to pitch better in order to get anything for him so, whether he ends up in the rotation or not, it would be nice to see some well-pitched innings from the man.
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lefty basher
by elirock83 on Mar 9, 2008 12:45 PM EDT 0 recs
Yesterday, I posted this
What do you guys think we could expect from Joe Mather should he make the team?
Seems his stock is rising as a potential replacement for Speizio's role. He tore up AA in the first half of last year at age 24. However, in 7 seasons of minor league ball, his OPS is .774. His second half promotion to AAA pretty much reflected his minor league totals.
ZiPS isn't kind, projecting an OBP under .300 and slugging under .400.
Marcel doesn't list him at all. PECOTA, ironically, lists him as a comp for three different other players but doesn't actually project Mather himself.
I'm all for youth movement and Mather seems to be having a good spring. But, is a 25 year old 1b-man with a career minor league OPS under .800 worth a roster spot? Was his first half AA performance indicative of a turnaround? Or is the 6 years it took him to crack AA a more accurate portrayal of his talent level?
Digging a little deeper, prior to last year his HR rate was 1 per 30.6 ABs. Last year's spike at AA took it to 1 per 13. His slugging spiked from his career .445 to .603. After his promotion, his slugging regressed back to .443 - very near his career norm. But, his HR rate only dropped back to 1 per 19.46 ABs.
It certainly seems to me we are counting on a small sample size spike of a half season at AA at the age of 24 to indicate he's going to be a leftie masher.
by RedbirdRay on Mar 9, 2008 12:53 PM EDT 0 recs
To add...
by RedbirdRay on
Mar 9, 2008 12:57 PM EDT
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Both Hoffpauir and Mather
by azruavatar on
Mar 9, 2008 3:24 PM EDT
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No DH today?
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 9, 2008 12:59 PM EDT 0 recs
Goold
by RedbirdRay on
Mar 9, 2008 1:02 PM EDT
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Goold answered that question...
I think Strauss or Leach said that his fielding didn't look too good in camp, though, but that was early on.
by Forsch31 on
Mar 9, 2008 6:32 PM EDT
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the lefty problem
by matt reeder on Mar 9, 2008 1:01 PM EDT 0 recs
Yes Sir
by elirock83 on
Mar 9, 2008 10:53 PM EDT
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Argh
by RedbirdRay on Mar 9, 2008 1:06 PM EDT 0 recs
D. Goold said he showed up
Yikes!
by jillsinmo on
Mar 9, 2008 6:21 PM EDT
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good stuff
by erik on
Mar 9, 2008 2:59 PM EDT
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I have to agree
by nmstar on
Mar 9, 2008 4:16 PM EDT
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my thoughts exactly
If I were trying to shed labels, why would I repeat them to you in this interview?! I'm not worried about labels.
contradictory?
I hope his interpersonal skills are better than that interview portrayed. especially if he expects to bridge the scouting-development tension. I have no doubt that he's a smart man, but that only goes so far.
by _pistol_ on
Mar 9, 2008 6:42 PM EDT
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Given the gracious manner in which he's dealt
by azruavatar on
Mar 9, 2008 8:00 PM EDT
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agree
by SleepyCA on
Mar 9, 2008 11:51 PM EDT
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meant to add
by SleepyCA on
Mar 9, 2008 11:53 PM EDT
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I find it interesting
by ecaw1123 on
Mar 9, 2008 8:36 PM EDT
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I think you need to read the article again
The 2006 Cards had the following players on the WS roster from their farm system:
Albert
Yadi
Duncan
J Rod (came from the Indians but promoted from the farm)
So (NDFA from Japan)
Kinney
Thompson
Reyes
Wainwright (came from the Braves but promoted from the farm)
Flores
Johnson
So of the 25 man roster, 11 played for the Cards farm system, a fairly high percentage these days.
Dave
Looper
by Sydney dave on
Mar 9, 2008 10:21 PM EDT
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I caught that...
by ecaw1123 on
Mar 10, 2008 12:27 AM EDT
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Are you sure your numbers are right?
by salvomania on Mar 9, 2008 1:27 PM EDT 0 recs
According to ESPN...
The team average was .751. And bear in mind, the average was dragged quite a bit upwards by Pujols 1.140 OPS against them and to a lesser degree, Ankiel.
by DiscoJer on
Mar 9, 2008 4:59 PM EDT
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yeah
and aside from pujols, so was the best against lefties, just without any pop
by bigcardsfan5 on
Mar 9, 2008 7:30 PM EDT
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No I didn't
by houstoncardinal on
Mar 9, 2008 8:14 PM EDT
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go back
by bigcardsfan5 on
Mar 10, 2008 12:15 AM EDT
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here it is
by bigcardsfan5 on
Mar 10, 2008 12:17 AM EDT
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Mortensen with a rough first.
by Phyrkrakr on Mar 9, 2008 1:49 PM EDT 0 recs
Looper
by Mr Redbird on Mar 9, 2008 2:16 PM EDT 0 recs
I only saw one game last season...
by ecaw1123 on
Mar 9, 2008 8:39 PM EDT
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i feel your pain
To make matters worse, my sister was wearing a damn pirates hat, since she did grad school at carnegie mellon and thought that gave her some kind of moral imperative to "root for the underdogs". I was back in MO to celebrate her return from a year in taiwan and it just about broke my heart to see her dressed like that...
That was also about a day or two before the ankiel HGH thing, which effectively ended our season. I remember that story breaking while I was in MO and before I flew to AZ to see wainwright lose to Webb on a catching error by yadi on a tremendous throw by ankiel and a HR off of either franklin or springer.
by SleepyCA on
Mar 9, 2008 11:34 PM EDT
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I can top that
Isringhausen,and Thompson unable to hold the 4-3 lead.
I got to watch Jose flipping Castillo hit the walkoff single after Pujols turned a sweet double-play off a bunt to make up for David Eckstein booting a ball in the 11th.
All the while, the 9,000 Pirates fans raining obscenities down on me as I had the audicity to leap up from my front row seats when Pujols turned the double play. I thought the 'Here comes the hot lunch, Albert' was particularly classy as he charged the bunt. They wouldn't let me or the misses leave as they blocked the ailes and screamed at us. Finally an usher came over and escorted us out.
Needless to say, the state of our pitching and middle-infield defense causes me great pains.
by Hardcore Legend on
Mar 9, 2008 11:43 PM EDT
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wow
F'ing pittsburgh. Say what you want about the nazis, but at least they didn't give aramiz ramirez to the cubs for nuttin'.
by SleepyCA on
Mar 10, 2008 12:00 AM EDT
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I'll never forget it
Kennedy then didn't get to the single to put two runners on.
Pujols saved both their backsides with the double play.
Then Kennedy couldn't make the throw home from RF off the bat of Castillo that BARELY got over Mighty-Might Aaron Miles glove that allowed for the Pirates victory.
Boo Miles, Kennedy and Eckstein!
by Hardcore Legend on
Mar 10, 2008 12:10 AM EDT
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found the box score
by ecaw1123 on
Mar 9, 2008 8:48 PM EDT
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Mort Shelled today
by StLHugo on Mar 9, 2008 2:18 PM EDT 0 recs
Kevin Mench
by DimitroffVodka on Mar 9, 2008 2:30 PM EDT 0 recs
Because Brian Barton can contribute as much
Barton just hit a triple, his second in two games. In his last three games he has hit for the cycle and then some.
by CardsWin on
Mar 9, 2008 3:23 PM EDT
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sxsw...
by punksoulbrutha on Mar 9, 2008 2:50 PM EDT 0 recs
A full day of Miles yet again...
Why is is Aaron Miles every single day? We know what he can do. And for the whole game? Is that really necessary.
by DiscoJer on Mar 9, 2008 5:07 PM EDT 0 recs
The mystery of hofpauir
by ridgesee on
Mar 9, 2008 5:56 PM EDT
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Wasn't Hoffpauir
Hoffpauir only made the leap to Triple AAA in the middle of last season, which was his first real good pro season. He's not ready yet, so I don't understand why people are expecting him to compete for a roster spot. He's not that kind of prospect. The position guys who are playing are the ones who could make the roster this year--Ryan, Rasmus, Barton. Hoffpauir isn't one of those guys.
by Forsch31 on
Mar 9, 2008 6:41 PM EDT
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He should be competing with Miles...
I don't think last year was his first "good" pro season. If that were the case, he wouldn't have advanced every year. He seems to always have had a very good ability to get on base.
Nor do I think playing time should be determined by who shows up earliest.
While I don't think he would realistically be the starting 2B this year out of spring training, I do think it's quite possible he could be called up after Kennedy stinks it up for a few months, and any exposure at all to major league pitching or playing with the other major leaguers would be very helpful.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think Hoff will be a great player. He's basically an Aaron Miles type (short, little power), but an Aaron Miles who will get on base 40 points more often.
by DiscoJer on
Mar 9, 2008 7:11 PM EDT
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No, last year
by ridgesee on
Mar 9, 2008 8:29 PM EDT
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TLR
But on a lighter note, per mlb dot com, "Mike Pansi" will be following Waino tomorrow.
by t7rick on Mar 9, 2008 5:13 PM EDT 0 recs
How about this guy?????
119 AB 39 H 13 doubles 7 HR 17 BB .328 avg .410 OBP .613 SLG 1.023 OPS
And he's still on the market.
Those are the numbers for Sammy Sosa. Yes, he's a cheater, a fraud, and a dirty stinkin' Cub at heart. But he can still hit LHP.
I'm not saying the Cardinals should sign him. I'm just saying that IF hitting against lefties is a chief concern, then that's an option.
by Hard8 on Mar 9, 2008 5:43 PM EDT 0 recs
Nice job today, Brian Barton
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 9, 2008 11:15 PM EDT 0 recs
The OF situation
Ankiel, Duncan, Schumaker, Ludwick (who is out of options) ... and still a scrum for the other spot. Rasmus and Mather are the leaders right now, with Barton closing and Juan Gonzalez lingering.
I'm alittle perplexed as to why Rasmus and Mather are the leading candidates (both are very good, don't get me wrong) but both have options and that is something TLR has always said is a big decider in ties. Barton makes the team or is cut.
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 10, 2008 12:27 AM EDT 0 recs
Agreed
by StLHugo on
Mar 10, 2008 8:12 AM EDT
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vs LHP's was a 29.8% issue during 07 PA's
29.8% of 162 games is also 48 games, and they all matter.
so how did our stats as a team hold up vs lhp's?
did we produce as a team better than .702% vs rhp, or .298% vs lhp?
runs scored...vs rhp .697, vs lhp .303*
hits...vs rhp .705*, vs lhp .295
2B....vs rhp .670, vs lhp .329*
3B...vs rhp .769*, vs lhp .231
HR...vs rhp .751*, vs lhp .248
RBI vs rhp .693, vs lhp .307*
BB....vs rhp .667, vs lhp .333*
K...vs rhp .706, vs lhp .294*
..............BA......OBP.....SLG.....OPS....BA/BIP
vs rhp.....273.....332.....407*....739.....300
vs lhp.....276*....350*....401.....751*....309*
appears the offensive stats vs lhp didn't underachieve. pitching and defense related?
by hard9fan on Mar 11, 2008 12:06 PM EDT 0 recs














