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fear of flies

Birdos_avatar_tiny by lboros on in News

the guys over at USS Mariner and Lookout Landing ran a little outfield-defense study the last couple of days, tag-team style; i learned about it over at Tango's blog. the USSM crew counted up the number of putouts by mariner outfielders, year by year, during the 2000s; Lookout Landing counted up the number of flyballs in play year by year going back to 2003, then plugged in the putout data to determined the percentage of flyballs that were turned into outs. not very complicated, but somewhat revealing: the Ms' conversion rate on flyballs has dropped like a stone over the last 5 years.

the cards' terrible outfield defense was one of the biggest (but least recognized) stories of 2007; see the little table at the bottom of this post for a sense of how inept the flycatchers were. even edmonds had a bad year with the glove; john dewan's plus/minus system listed jed as the second-worst centerfielder in the nl. the USSM/LL study was easy to replicate, so i did it using slightly different methodology. Lookout Landing got its ball-in-play data from retrosheet, using a perl search script; i (being lazier and bereft of programming skills) relied on Baseball Info Solutions' gb/fb/ld breakdowns, which are easily accessible over at fangraphs. the putout figures come straight from Baseball Reference and are pretty standard; even sabr-haters consider putouts a legitimate stat. i only went back 3 years, also on account of laziness --- but 2005 gets us back to the days when the outfield defense was (whether judged via the stat sheet or the naked eye) pretty damn good. compare:

2005 2006 2007
flyballs 1320 1548 1746
homers 153 193 168
playable flyballs 1167 1355 1578
of putouts 908 995 1052
outs per playable fb .778 .734 .667

zounds.

two years ago they caught 78 percent of the flyballs in play; last year, only 67 percent. that's a stunning dropoff. but it's believable when you consider how the personnel have changed. the 4 outfielders with the most innings afield in 2005 were edmonds (who won a gold glove, his last, that year), larry walker (a 7-time gold glover), reggie sanders, and so taguchi; last year they were the post-foot-surgery edmonds, chris duncan, juan encarnacion, and ryan ludwick. of the latter 4, only ludwick scored above average on the metrics last year.

how many runs did this cost? let's just rough it out --- nothing too fancy here, and no claims of precision. first of all, let's tally the number of flyballs that would have been caught by a competent defense. obviously the 2005 outfield was far more than competent; it's not realistic to use a 78 percent conversion rate as our standard. i could just split the difference and use the 2006 conversion rate; that's the median in our little sample. here, let's try that out:

flyballs % caught outs
2007 actual 1578 .667 1052
2007 hypothetical 1578 .734 1158

that's 106 flyballs the 2007 outfield missed that the 2006 outfield theoretically would have caught. even if we assume that every one of the missed flyballs became only a single --- and surely many of them would become doubles, and a handful would be triples --- the cost of those 106 uncaught balls would be nearly 80 runs. if we factor in extra-base hits, the cost inflates to well over 100 runs. is that plausible? maybe. don't forget, the cards' run yield in 2007 (829 runs) was the 3d worst in franchise history --- and we can't blame the inflation on a high homerun total (the cards were average in that regard last year, 8th in the nl) nor a high walk total (the cards allowed the nl's 5th-lowest total). that leaves only one way to explain the increase in runs --- a hell of a lot of balls in play didn't get turned into outs.

now, was the failure to catch all those balls entirely the fault of the fielders? surely not. first of all, as the first table above shows, the outfielders had more flyballs to chase last year than in either of the two previous years --- an increase of 200 over 2006 and nearly 400 over 2005. here's the percentage breakdown by ball-in-play type:

2005 2006 2007
flyball % .272 .313 .352
groundball % .525 .483 .451
line drive% .203 .204 .196

if the pitcher throws a meatball and the hitter scorches a line drive into gap, you can't blame the fielder for failing to run over and catch it. st louis pitchers threw plenty of meatballs last year; we all saw it, and the increased flyball rate indirectly confirms it. so i wouldn't blame the fielders entirely --- but i wouldn't blame the pitchers entirely either. the pitching staff's aggregate rate of line drives allowed was lower last year (19.6 percent) than in either 2006 (20.4 percent) or 2005 (20.3 percent), which suggests that the spike in runs allowed isn't entirely related to lousy pitching. the moundsmen got hit harder last year, but not that much harder --- if they were really that terrible, we'd expect a high line-drive rate and a high home run rate, and last year's staff didn't exhibit either of those symptoms.

it stands to reason that a least some of the balls that weren't caught could and should have been caught. how many? let's make a modest assumptions. suppose the cards allow flyballs at the same rate as last year, but the defenders catch 70 percent of the flyballs instead of merely 67. how many runs would that save? let's see:

flyballs % caught outs
2007 actual 1578 .667 1052
2007 hypothetical 1578 .700 1105

a 70 percent conversion rate would eliminate 53 singles, doubles, and triples and turn them into outs. that's a savings of about 50 runs --- 5 wins in the standings. was the outfield defense really so bad that it cost the team 5 or more wins last year? no doubt about it.

so how likely is it that they can increase their conversion rate accordingly? that really depends on who plays. if juan gone makes the team and gets innings out there, the percentage of balls caught might well go down. we probably shouldn't expect much improvement from duncan; he won't be playing with a sports hernia this year, which might help a bit, but he'll always just be a first baseman doing his best to survive out there. ankiel is still a mystery; he did ok last year but is still learning, and he's better in center field than in right. ludwick's good, but he already played more than half the time last year and isn't likely to get substantially more time this season.

the only guy likely to make a real impact, imho, is colby rasmus. by all accounts he's a plus defender; flank him with ludwick and ankiel and you'd have a pretty tight outfield D.

but don't take that to mean that i'm in favor of making rasmus the opening-day CF. i'm still leaning against that idea because i think a premature promotion might set the kid back. but i could be persuaded otherwise if he has a good spring and exhibits an ability to recognize pitches, make adjustments, take the ball the other way when that's what the pitcher gives him. given the likely benefits of his glove, he'd probably only have to hit .250 / .325 / .425 or thereabouts to make a big impact.

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Gad!
Our outfield was terrible.  You always hear how important defense is, but it's something to see it dangled in front of your face.

To think the outfield defense alone cost us five wins boggles the mind.

by arch support on Mar 4, 2008 9:13 AM EST   0 recs

Why no love for Barton?
He's not shown much this Spring other than in the SLU game, but isn't he supposed to be above average defensively?  It's not looking good for him right now...Schu and JuanGone are off to pretty good starts, but it's still early.
Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Mar 4, 2008 9:16 AM EST   0 recs

Props...
Great great post LB.  Tip 'o the hat to you.

by sdelek on Mar 4, 2008 9:28 AM EST   0 recs

Larry - excellent stuff my man.
Glad you do the legwork on analyses such as this.  

JuanG in the outfield is a scary proposition, really - considering he'd likely be a step DOWN from JuanE.  

So what is everyone's prediction on the outfield situation in terms of playing time?  

Here's mine:

LF:  Duncan/Ludwick platoon (vs. LHP/RHP)

CF:  Ankiel plays full-time, gets spelled by Ludwick at times.  Colby comes up mid-season or so and takes over - the rest is history.

RF:  Juan Gone is opening day starter.  Skippy Schu is traded, Barton spells Juan off the bench.

by silent_bob on Mar 4, 2008 9:45 AM EST   0 recs

obviously
Duncan would play vs. RHP, Lud vs. LHP.

by silent_bob on Mar 4, 2008 9:51 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I still say a prayer everyday
that TLRs reluctance to put Juan Gone in the outfield means they are hoping to trade him to an AL team.  Probably makes too much sense to come true.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Mar 4, 2008 9:53 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I think....
I really think that Barton is going to make the team and bat leadoff regularly.  I see him starting in right - otherwise I agree with what you've got.

by sdelek on Mar 4, 2008 10:24 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

That really doesn't make sense...
Ludwick has a reverse split -- he hits righties (.278/.341/.465 - .806 OPS) much better than lefties (.211/.286/.418 - .704 OPS), so playing him exclusively against left handed pitching doesn't provide an advantage.

A more interesting scenario would be a platoon of Duncan/Gonzalez in left, Ankiel or Rasmus in CF, and Ludwick or Ankiel in right, the last two depending on whether Colby makes the team or not.  If he doesn't you have this:

*Duncan(RHP)Gonzalez(LHP) - LF
*Ankiel - CF
*Ludwick - RF

Duncan mashes RHP (.287.375/.569 - .944 OPS), and Gonzalez mashes LHP (.321/.375/.602 - .977 OPS) so offensively that would be fantastic.  It also minimizes the damage done by the two worst OF by platooning them.  Tony loves to double-switch in the late innings, so a platoon works out well there too, not to mention that Gonzalez would probably be better suited by not playing every day.  Barton or Schu fills the Taguchi role of spot starter or defensive replacement as the 5th OF.  If Colby makes the club you have this:

*Duncan(RHP)/Gonzalez(LHP) - LF
*Rasmus - CF
*Ankiel - RF

That's a much better defensive scenario simply because Ankiel has a cannon in right and will get better at the position the more he plays it, Rasmus provides plus defense in center, and we still get to minimize damage and maximize offense with the platoon in LF.  In this scenario I think Ludwick becomes the Taguchi type with Schu getting traded or sent down and Barton getting sent back to the Indians unless the team can find a way to keep him.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 4, 2008 10:38 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Good research
I didn't have time to look up the #'s. And now that you mention it, I do remember the reverse split for Ludwick.  My scenario is what I thought TLR would do, anyways.  He doesn't believe in reverse platoon splits.

by silent_bob on Mar 4, 2008 11:29 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Duncan needs to be traded!
I don't like Ludwick toiling on the bench.  I truly believe he deserves a shot at legit playing time.

by silent_bob on Mar 4, 2008 12:00 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Duncan
I'm not a fan of trading him at this point.  I don't think that the Cardinals will get what I believe he's worth and I'm not sure the ballclub will do well without his offensive prescence.  Unless he and a pitching prospect could be dealt for Cain or Lincecum I'm in favor of keeping him.  If he can get 400-500 PA's this year and hit 30+ homers with a good OBP, the Cards could be looking to deal him next offseason to a team looking for a 1B or a DH and maybe even get some Swisher-type prospects in return.  Considering the OF injuries the Cards have dealt with the past few years, it doesn't hurt to have an extra outfielder or two who can play, especially after bringing Juan Gone on board and planning on playing Ankiel in CF.

I really like Ludwick too, but I don't think he's going to put up a .900 OPS like Duncan has shown that he can do when he's healthy.  I actually really like the idea of him coming off the bench with Rasmus starting in CF.  That gives Tony a good bat and glove coming off of the bench in the late innings and a pinch hitter with some pop to replace the Speezer.  His absolutely putrid hitting off of lefties is troublesome unless every game is managed by Dusty Baker who doesn't read statistics.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 4, 2008 12:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

another way to look at it.
With the Duncan/Gonzalez platoon in LF, you're looking at a combined OPS of around .950 if both guys are healthy all season and throw up a career average split (which is a long shot, I know!).  The one who isn't playing becomes a valuable pinch hitter (and we know TLR LOVES those guys, and look at Duncan's pinch hitting in 2006, his pinch hit homer in the NLCS was huge).  It's quite possible we get 45+ homers from that LF platoon -- which would probably be more homers out of that spot than any team in the NL except maybe Cincy or Houston (Dunn and C. Lee).  Add 20+ homers from Ankiel and 20+ from the other three OF and that's a slew more production from the outfield than we got last year.  

Regardless of who is in CF the defense should improve a little, and I think a full season of Ludwick or Ankiel in right would be an upgrade over Juan E.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 4, 2008 12:27 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Endorsement
I'd like to endorse fourstick's proposed outfield.  

If Rasmus keeps playing as he is today, he could very well end up on the team come April.  If he earns it, I've got no problem with it. I seem to recall a certain minor leaguer named Albert who ended up on the team unexpectedly early several years ago, and that seems to have worked out.

Juan Gone is hitting very well so far, which makes the Duncun/Gonzalez split very appealing too.

This could be a sound approach.

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Mar 4, 2008 3:06 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

new stadium factor
great post but I wonder if the new stadium factored into this at all for '05 v '06 stats?
The new vs. old dimensions are as follows:
     new  old
LF   336  330
LC   375  372
C    400  402
RC   375  372
RF   335  330

Its not dramatic but the larger size coupled with less familarity might have taken away several putouts.

by The Hou of Red on Mar 4, 2008 9:57 AM EST   0 recs

very nice post
to me it brings us back to the trade duncan and use juan/ludwick in left, ank in right, and skip and barton in center until rasmus shows.  i'm kind of ambivalent about losing duncan, but i think your analysis is right on.  is his net better than ludwick?  don't know, but add a better MI defense and you've got a better chance of improving the run differential.   the improvement in runs the cards need just can't come from offense alone.  what the cards need is the 64 infield again, all all-star starters with great offense and defense.  since that's not happening, it seems new bush might lend itself more to a defense first approach, including the outfield.  old ground, but still a legit question as your post brings to light once more.

by sportsman on Mar 4, 2008 10:00 AM EST   0 recs

Rasmus
There's also no reason to start Colby's arby clock early if we're going to suck anyway.  I know that is a different argument but still seems to make sense.

by eglasier on Mar 4, 2008 10:16 AM EST   0 recs

I've been saying the same
I've been pointing to the clock all along.  But, I'm starting to rethink the issue.  If the Cardinals intend to sign Rasmus to a Grady Sizemore type contract after a couple years, I'm not sure the arby clock is that big of a deal.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 4, 2008 10:20 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Colby
that has been my argument from day 1.  I say the only way the arb clock matters is if Colby is a bust.  It may affect the ability to trade him if he sucks.  If he is a good as advertised STL will sign him to a nice contract early, just like a lot of young great players in the game.

by ICbirdfan on Mar 4, 2008 10:50 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

but
how many years are left on his arbitration clock will determine his expected salary for the next several years and indirectly affect his leverage in negotiations for that contract that he will eventually sign.  So in that way it DOES still matter.

by eglasier on Mar 4, 2008 11:15 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I get it.
I just don't think it's the main reason Colby should not be on the team ASAP if he is good enough.  

If you are a team like the Marlins I think arb clock is very importants.  We all know that the Marlins have zero intention of ever signing guys to long term deals, so in the Marlins case it's extremely important not to start the clock too early.  Now STL will give guys slight raises each year just like Albert and they finally decide we might as well give him some big money now, which really isn't that big of money by the time the deal is done.

I understand there are a lot of reasons to not bring Colby up right away but I think taking about starting the arb clock early is not the main one.  I see it as more of a small market concern or a concern if you think the guy may not make it.

by ICbirdfan on Mar 4, 2008 12:11 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

50 more balls...
5 wins.. would have put us on an equal record with the Brewers. 8 wins.. the original 80 extra runs LB calculated would have won us the division.

What sort of overall improvement do we need to actually challenge this year? It seems that no-one gives the Cards a chance because there has been no drastic improvement in any one area of weakness.

I'm no expert sabr man and wouldn't know what to look at, but if the starting pitching improves a little bit on last year's numbers, the infield defense improves a little on last year's numbers, the offense creates an extra 50 runs and the outfield defense catches an extra 50 balls then is 15 extra wins too far out of reach?

by realbrit70 on Mar 4, 2008 10:18 AM EST   0 recs

Huge ifs
Those are a huge amount of things that all need to click.   Is it realistic to expect Duncan to get much better in the outfield?  If you remove him and his horrible defense from the lineup, it would devestate the offense.    There's no give.

The other trouble with this rationale is it assumes other teams are static.   The Brewers also had awful defense and very young players.   They shored up the defensive problems by adding Cameron and moving Braun from third...additionally, the young players project to get better with normal age lines (like Corey Hart).  

The Cubs also look to be better.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 4, 2008 10:26 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

the other factor, realbrit
is that st louis was lucky in its pythagorean record last year --- actual record was 7 games better than their run differential would predict. if the cards improve by 50 runs, they'd still have a -50 run differential and almost surely would still be a losing team. they were -104 or thereabouts in run differential last year, so they need to improve by 100 runs just to get back to .500.

by lboros on Mar 4, 2008 10:37 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

I don't want to beat a dead horse, but......
LB, didn't someone post about our pythagorean w-l record last year?  

Based on runs, yes we should have had a bad record, but we spent a lot of innings watching Jiminez and his cohorts at the back of the bullpen get shelled in games that were forgone conclusions.  Instead of losing 5-1, we were getting beat 13-2.  I think someone related that to spiking our pythagorean losses.

I'm a man, a manly, manly, man. Unknown

by Eckstreem on Mar 4, 2008 12:10 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Yes, last year we did match the profile
of a team that would beat it's pythagorean record--an extremely topheavy offense, a solid front of the bullpen, and an extremely weak back of the rotation equals a lot of close wins, and a lot of blowout losses.

by Valatan on Mar 4, 2008 1:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Thanks Val!
Based on the factors you mentioned, we could be in line to beat our pythagorean record yet again.  Not that it is a good thing.
I'm a man, a manly, manly, man. Unknown

by Eckstreem on Mar 4, 2008 2:36 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Beating our pythagorean record = good thing.
Our pythagorean record indicating less than 65 wins = very bad thing.

It's just that the second outweighs the first.

I know, I know, I'm being pedantic.

"Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." --Churchill

by lordsummer on Mar 4, 2008 3:18 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

another factor
in OF defense is the arm of the outfielder.  We can quantify this with the OF assist, but a less tangible aspect of an OF's arm is reputation. Think about the the extra bases that runners don't take.  - such as the decision not to tag and score from on a medium-depth fly ball or not going first to third on a single.  
Hypothetically: let's say that '08 Juan Pierre and '08 Rick Ankiel play the same # of innings in CF and have the exact same range and glove skills.  more than likely Slick Rick would have several more OF assists that Pierre.  But there is no doubt that Ankiel's cannon displays from -07 will discourage many runners from even attempting to run in '08.  Pierre's reputation would have the opposite effect.

All other defensive measure being the same, the reputation of Rick's arm makes him a better outfielder.  

I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Mar 4, 2008 11:55 AM EST   0 recs

thanks, lboros
for quantifying what many have been saying with only anecdotal evidence. Duncan needs to be spectacular offensively to make up for his deficiencies in the field.
     Add to the weak outfield defense the terrible year turned in up the middle by Eck, Kennedy, and Miles and you get the #1 culprit for last season's disappointing record.Let's hope Izturis returns to his gold-glove form.

by vinniefromjersey on Mar 4, 2008 12:53 PM EST   0 recs

I also think that analysis
is interesting partly because of the response on this site.  If the defense is to improve, and lord knows this pitching staff needs it to, the job starts in left field.  Several posters, though, are suggesting a Duncan/Gonzalez platoon and drooling at the offensive numbers they would put up.  That would be the only outfield spot that would not be a defensive question mark.  It would just be downright awful.  We are not talking about platooning Manny Ramirez and Barry Bonds either so I don't see the offensive platoon making up for the terribel D.  I like the defensive potential of Ankiel, Barton and Ludwick but they too are unproven.  With a Dunc/Gonzo platoon and the question marks this statistic could get even worse.

by easy on Mar 4, 2008 5:29 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Wind blowing out to left
i fear for Anthony.

by TICY on Mar 4, 2008 1:05 PM EST   0 recs

SHHHH!
Mmmph, too late.
"Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." --Churchill

by lordsummer on Mar 4, 2008 3:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Great piece of analysis
It's clear that the staff has been trending away from a GB/ double-play-oriented staff for a couple of years, which shouldn't be too bad for the team, as fly balls are generally easier to convert into outs than ground balls. But for this team, and this outfield, that's clearly not so. This brings two points to my mind:
  1. I wonder if our terrible outfield defense put additional stress on Dave Duncan last year, trying to continue to preach the low stuff to a guy like Anthony Reyes (35% GB rate), taking away his high fastball, saying that "it would get creamed at this level." Given this defense behind the pitcher, it's hard to argue. Between Reyes, Wellemeyer (40%), Maroth (42%) and to a lesser extent Pineiro (45%), he had to be eating his hat all year long.
  2. The Brewers are making the biggest transformation to their outfield defense in the division, moving the lead-gloved Braun to left and signing Mike Cameron to play center. How this plays out for them could very well decide the division.

by taiko on Mar 4, 2008 1:16 PM EST   0 recs

Wow
Shannonism of the spring... he's wondering why "Utah" street in baltimore is named such... Rooney points out that it's spelled "Eutaw"

by TICY on Mar 4, 2008 1:31 PM EST   0 recs

Not that bad really
For Reyes that 1st inning wasn't bad at all.  He allowed 2 runs of which one was off a bases loaded 1 out sac fly, the old Reyes would have allowed more then just that 1 run to score in that situation.  If he can control himself with runners on base then I still have hope.

by StLHugo on Mar 4, 2008 2:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ugh
This seems familiar.  Depressingly familiar.
So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Mar 4, 2008 2:04 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Obviously, Reyes did not impress anyone
with this outing.  No pitch efficiency at all.  He got killed with fly balls and consecutive hits.  Giving up a homerun on a pitcher's count.  And 4 runs in two innings speaks for itself.

I can only guess that his location was way off today.

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Mar 4, 2008 2:11 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Well, I wouldn't say it was OFF, exactly.
Instead it apparently was the same place it was all last season! Please, AR, please please please do not give us more of what we saw in '07.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 4, 2008 2:47 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Rasmus 2 out RBI
first RBI of spring training for him, drove in Barton who somehow got from 1st to 3rd on a missed catch error after Izturis flew out to CF...don't ask me how that went down.

by StLHugo on Mar 4, 2008 2:06 PM EST   0 recs

error
throwing error by adam jones
"There's a good possibility we may not be as bad as people think we're going to be."-- La Russa

by birdsonthebat on Mar 4, 2008 2:34 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Ah, the sound of baseball
Even with Anthony's rough outing, the sound of Shannon and Rooney on my Gameday Audio has gone a long way to calming my nerves today....

by thisgirllovesbaseball on Mar 4, 2008 2:09 PM EST   0 recs

I like
your new screen name.  This girl loves baseball too.  

by cardsgirl95 on Mar 4, 2008 2:32 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

;o)
Thanks!  You know we've got to represent with all these smart guys on VEB!

woohoo, Rasmus HR as I type!!!

by thisgirllovesbaseball on Mar 4, 2008 2:53 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Infield Defense
Has there been a post about this yet? My guess is that the % decline is worse than the outfield. Rolen, Renteria, Vina, Pujols...versus unhealthy Rolen and Pujols combined with Eckstein-Kennedy-Miles.

Our pitching was bad last year, but the defense caused it to be really bad.

My offseason priority for this club was to improve defensively. They will probably be slightly better in 2008.

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Mar 4, 2008 2:28 PM EST   0 recs

Colby Scrapmus
hits a HR, picking up his 2nd gritty RBI of the day.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 4, 2008 2:53 PM EST   0 recs

How are you seeing the game?
I see in the box score he walked Brian Roberts, but otherwise looks like a couple single snuck through. Hard to tell if he was all over the place or just unlucky.

by paCardsFan on Mar 4, 2008 3:42 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Listening
got some swings out of the zone, threw a wild pitch, walked a guy (something he rarely does).
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 4, 2008 3:53 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Relax, man.
Just finding the way, getting the feel. It's early to read too much into anything.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 4, 2008 3:58 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Thought
We were dropping Big Lebowski references there.

by liam on Mar 4, 2008 11:01 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Well,
that's just, like, your opinion, man.
Juan Gonzalez actually doesn't know the meaning of the word "retirement."

by Alxfritz on Mar 4, 2008 11:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I damn near pissed myself laughing
reading this exchange, and I don't even have a nice rug for the occasion.

by BTown Birds fan on Mar 4, 2008 11:25 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I like that "gritty" thing.
We need to get the P-D sportswriters to use the adjective "gritty" w.r.t. Rasmus, every time they ask TLR about him.  Build up a Pavlovian connection in Tony's mind.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 4, 2008 3:45 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

'Sblood.
Zounds: great word. And an aptly profane reaction to that data.

In all, a very good and illuminating post.

by Youneverknow on Mar 4, 2008 6:44 PM EST   0 recs

Cards OF Defense 2005 vs. 2007
Great analysis on the Cards drop off in OF defense.

It is similarly evident from looking at the DYNASTY League Baseball range ratings for the Cardinals defense in 2005 and 2007. Every 2005 position had a better Range rating than in 2007.

Edmonds defensive stats improved the later half of the season as he started to get his legs back otherwise there would have been an even greater falloff.

2005 Range ratings:

lf Sanders C+
lf Taguchi A

cf Edmonds A+

rf Walker B

2007 Range ratings:

lf Duncan C
lf Taguchi B+

cf Edmonds B+

rf Encarnacion C+
rf Ludwick B

DYNASTY League Baseball - the leader in realism in Baseball simulation games from the designer of Pursue the Pennant.

by DYNASTYLeagueBaseballMike on Mar 4, 2008 7:14 PM EST   0 recs

bad news...
just got back from the game in ft lauderdale, and thought I'd take advantage of the torrential downpour to type up some thoughts from today.  It's ironic that I came back to see this post as the main post, because the biggest disappointment in a day where we got beat 10-2 was that Colby was awful in CF today.

Today was my first time seeing him, and might not be indicative of his overall skill, but he just wasn't good today.   he caught two balls that I remember, and was extremely slow to move and took poor routes to both- one of them looked like an easy fly ball and he made it look like an exceptional catch because he didn't start going back until the ball was well past second base.  He only had to move maybe 30 feet and it almost burned him.  Also, at least two balls fell in front of him today that should have been caught- one on Mora's double in the first or second inning, which Mora could have had a triple on except that he didn't run out of the box because he thought it would be caught (it landed maybe 75 feet from the fence and rolled to the wall), and the second on a short pop up that screwed Mortenson, allowing 2 runs to score with 2 outs.  From his "hustle" I felt like I was watching a California surf version of Juan Enc.  Except that Colby's from alabama.  So maybe a dukes of hazard juan encarnacion...

The other thing i noticed was that he seems to have a sense of entitlement.  In general not hustling, walking to CF instead of running, hanging out with the veterans/coaches instead of the memphis guys, etc.  On one ground ball he hit the first baseman dove and colby thought he was going to make the play, so he stopped running and actually turned back towards the dugout.  The 1B booted it and he was almost caught 3-4-1 because he didn't hustle.  He certainly didn't look like a guy trying to make the big league team.  Ryan, Haerther, etc were all sprinting to their positions, acting like they wanted to be there, taking extra fielding practice, etc.  Not colby.  He just looked bored.  i really had my hopes up and now am pretty upset; hope he gets his head on straight.  I actually think he needs to start at springfield as an ego-stomp.

On the other hand, the HR he hit was legit.  The wind was blowing in from RF at 20+ mph, and the ball was gone off the bat (and he knew it, and he watched it, and people in the stands noticed- grizzly old florida dude (in the purple flowered shirt) sitting next to me said something like "better watch out next time up, kid")...  

Anyway, other miscellany: east coast time sucks (esp for a west coaster) but we still got there way early and watched BP. B Ryan shaved his head and looks incredibly goofy, Juan Gone tried to bunt 4 times in a row and couldn't get one down in BP, hoffpauir is half the size of aaron miles, but TLR paid extra attention to both his batting and fielding practice.  he looked awesome in the field, not so good at the bat.  yadi hit 3 HR's in a row to LF in BP, iz2 couldn't get one out of the infield in BP, haerther and TLR got into a verbal argument during BP and TLR threw his hat down and stormed off, and everyone on the field stopped what they were doing when Marti's BP turn came.  Was weird.  Oh, and phelps KILLED the ball in bp.  can't catch a thing at 1B though.

In the game:  first pitch Gonzalez saw was fouled about 500 feet down the 3B line.  Then he doubled down the line, yawn.  Barton has a noodle arm and is apparently incapable of hitting a cutoff man.  His arm cost at least one run today.  Ryan made an incredible reverse backhand play on a ball that took a ridiculous bad hop off the edge of the grass- he was very obviously the best defensive man on the field today, on either team, but he also had at least one case where his head wasn't in the game (Reyes had someone easily picked off second and ryan didn't cover to take the throw).  Mather got picked off first twice and somehow didn't get out, once because the 2B dropped the ball and can't remember the second.

Was also my first time seeing the youngsters pitch.  Reyes was bizarre- he looked like an ace for 5-6 pitches and then looked like he had nothing for 5-6 pitches.  He had some kind of breaking pitch that was incredible, but he only threw it twice, both times for called strikes.  One of the sharpest breaks I've ever seen on a pitch.  His fastball got crushed though.  Mortenson looked awesome but had bad defense behind him, IE phelps/mather can't play 1B and Colby can't play CF (sorry).  Motte was incredible. FWIW there were scouts there from 4 teams, apparently just to watch him.  Don't know if it means a trade is in the works or what, but they were visibly excited and taking notes; i went and sat behind them to spy off their radar guns and he sat at 94, with one fastball at 93, and the 3 offspeed pitches were 79, 81, and 83.  K'd 2 guys looking silly and the the third grounded back to him IIRC.

Anyway it is so awesome to be here.  I highly recommend it ;)