play ball

by lboros on Mar 31, 2008 8:20 AM EDT

if you haven’t read Matt Lemmon’s Letter From Springfield , it’s directly below this post and getting a tremendous reception; recommended reading. here’s my contribution to VEB's opening-day coverage.

first of all: if you have any desire to enter the cards’ find-a-prospect scouting contest (aka "One for the Birds"), you have two more days to file your entries; the contest ends at midnight Tuesday night.

more after the jump:

second item: if you’re at the game today, please send me your video / pictures afterward (or better yet during the game, if you're wired) or post them in the fan shots. we remotely located fans want to soak up as much of the gravy of opening day as possible.

third item: in recent years cardinal fans have measured success in terms of postseason achievements: pennants and world championships. this year we can set the bar lower: the cards won’t have to win any titles for me to consider this year a success. what do they have to do? my criteria, in descending order of importance:

get carp back healthy. as i wrote over at the Hardball Times three weeks ago, the size of carp’s contract makes it imperative that he return reasonably healthy. if he doesn’t, the multimillions remaining on his deal will ball-n-chain the payroll for 3 more years.
have a good draft. obviously it’ll take a while before we can gauge the results, but we can already say that they’re on a three-year winning streak. draftees from 2005-07 dominate the upper levels of the chain and have lifted the organization from dead last in Baseball America’s farm system rankings as of 2005, to #13 today --- and still rising.
get one cost-controlled position player other than rasmus established as a league-average-or-better contributor. rasmus is a given; there’s a job waiting for him, and it’s his to lose. but several others have an opportunity to play their way into jobs. this group of secondary prospects prominently includes barton, ryan, schumaker, and mather; you might even include ankiel on this list, because despite all he’s shown so far he still has a lot to prove imho.

how about the rest of you? what does this team have to do to make you feel they've succeeded in 2008?

a final thought to stoke your opening-day fires. i included skip schumaker on my list of guys who might lay claim to a big-league job in 2008. i’ve been very skeptical of this player’s long-term prospects, and i remain wary of him. but at least one analyst i respect, john dewan, might say that schumaker is a player to watch in 2008. in his "stat of the week" last week, dewan scoured this year’s spring training stats looking for breakout candidates:

A few years ago we discovered that there is a way to use spring training stats to predict future performance. . . . . [among] players doing exceptionally well in spring training, we found that about three-fourths of them performed better than their career average during the upcoming season. Our definition of "exceptionally well" was slugging 100 points higher in spring training than their previous career slugging percentage.

dewan then listed 24 players who have eclipsed their career slugging pct by 200 points or more this spring training. schumaker didn’t make the list, because at that time his spring slg was only about 175 points above his career slg. but schu went 2 for 3 with a triple in the last spring training game, pushing his spring slugging pct to .606 --- 206 points above his career average of .400.

so per dewan’s analysis, schumaker is extremely likely to surpass his career norms this season --- .294 / .331 / .400 in his very brief career (255 at-bats). even if skip merely matches those slash lines, he’ll be the equal of david eckstein as a leadoff man. if he surpasses them, he’ll be a revelation. i don’t want to get my (or your) hopes too high here --- for the preponderance of his career schumaker hasn’t showed very much potential. but he did make the hardest contact of his pro career last season, with isolated power of .160 at memphis and .125 in st louis. and the .600 slugging average this month --- even against spring-training pitching --- is evidence that he continues to hit the ball hard. schumaker’s a notoriously locked-in march hitter (in part because he’s always fighting to make a roster), but until last year he generally sprayed singles around in spring training. that changed in 2007; he showed some power in march (.551 slugging, .170 ISO), and it carried over into the main schedule. maybe i’ve underestimated this player; or maybe his limitations were real and he worked to overcome them. in any case, for the first time i have reason to believe that schumaker might surprise me. and i hope he does.

game thread (with new SBN 2.0 features!!!) will go up at about 1 p.m. central time.

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Comments

hope they get to play it today

forecast not looking hot.

by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 31, 2008 8:29 AM EDT reply actions

KSDK said

this morning that they should get the game in, but it will be wet......when did they add a post button to the comment entry box?

by StLHugo on Mar 31, 2008 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Looking at the

accu weather map, the chances look slim for a baseball game today

by ridgesee on Mar 31, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Per the box office:

I called the stadium today to get a feel for any delays, and they said they would play today, even it meant waiting a while...

Instead of using tomorrow as a dry day to play, they will use the day off as an excuse to start the game whenever they feel like it.

Either way, I'm about to vanish from the office, grab my tickets, and head down there.

FYI: I was also told that even if the game were rescheduled, that you MUST have your ticket scanned today for it to work at the re-scheduled date.

by mwinf12 on Mar 31, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Carp's return

as you say is key, both on the field and in the business office. I also think it's crucial that one of the Mulder, Clement, Piniero, Lohse, etc. group establishes himself as a major contributor going into 2009 (I know Lohse would have to be signed).
As far as the draft goes, I'd like them to follow the Tiger's model (pay above slot for a Miller or Porcello). In my view that's good long range financial management. Take a chance on a top prospect who you control for a long time rather than spending on a rehab pitcher who can leave in a year or so even if he does contribute.
Third, I'd like to see the outfield settled by the end of the season. My preference would be Barton in left, Rasmus in center, and Ankiel in right as the regulars.

by vinniefromjersey on Mar 31, 2008 8:50 AM EDT reply actions

This is something that has bothered me for a while

I really question the application of SLG as Dewan uses it given it's predication on batting average (in part) and the luck component therein. I'd prefer something like ISO because Skip had a BABIP over .400 this spring.

If Skip can keep his OBP around .350, I imagine he'll hit leadoff the better part of the year.

by azruavatar on Mar 31, 2008 9:42 AM EDT reply actions

Skip's Spring Hitting

For the three games I saw down there, he looked to be hitting into bad luck. I recall him nailing three line drives but right at people and his only hit on the day was a grounder through the infield. His upside has been described as something like Brian Giles, a high-average gap doubles hitter.

by liam on Mar 31, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Probably already been mentioned somewhere

Number 9 of SI's John Donovan 2008 Predictions:

The Cardinals will have the worst record in the NL.

Ouch. Surely the Giants will be worse?

by paposse on Mar 31, 2008 9:50 AM EDT reply actions

Barring a catastrophic injury

I don't see how we are not better than: (1) San Fran; (2) Washington; (3) Pittsburgh. Wow, from fifth-best in '06 record-wise, to fourth-worst in '08. How far the mighty have fallen...

by bgh on Mar 31, 2008 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

washington

will surprise some people this year, they won't challenge for a division or anything but they'll post a decent record.

by lopey986 on Mar 31, 2008 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

That's 2 predictions that have the Cardinals

as one of the five worst teams in baseball. Am I missing something?

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 31, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

sports writer group think

I think what we have here is a case of conventional wisdom/group think. These "experts" are using old information and ideas they get from their fellow "experts" without paying attention to what's really happening with a team in spring training. I suppose its possible, with a few key injuries, for the Cards to end up being one of the worst teams in the league but I think its much more likely that they'll be a .500 team... possibly even better.

by satori21 on Mar 31, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

in the spirit of opening day,

i'm going to avoid responding substantively, HL. i'll just say that if you don't look at the cards and see legitimate reasons for prognosticators to put them near the cellar this season, well, i do.

still: on day 1, hope and faith.

e'rebuilding mang

by nycbirdo on Mar 31, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Positives

Above average #2 thru 5 in lineup, very solid bullpen. I think the Cardinals have the chance to be bad but worse than the Pirates and Orioles?

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 31, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions

argh

now i feel like i have to. this bothers me even as i'm doing it.

1. "above average #2 thru 5" - assumes ankiel can keep it up; assumes both albert and glaus will play something resembling a full season. obviously, does not account for the fact that the non-2-thru-5 spots in the lineup have at least the potential to be not just below average, but ghastly.

2. "very solid bullpen" - assumes springer and franklin can do that again.

also, i assume the "barring a catastrophic injury" post above would consider pujols shutting it down for the year to fix his elbow catastrophic. to me, in addition to undesirability, "catastrophic" has connotations of suddenness and unforeseeability, neither of which is applicable to albert pujols' elbow injury.

let me be clear here and say that i'm NOT arguing "worse than the pirates and orioles" - neither of which, in my mind, will be the worst team in baseball (giants). but neither do i think the cards have any chance at .500 unless a pretty remarkable string of good things happens.

then again, a pretty remarkable string of good things had to happen for an 83-win team to win it all. like i said, on day 1, hope and faith. go cardinals.

e'rebuilding mang

by nycbirdo on Mar 31, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions

But you could say all of those things about almost everyteam in the league

where would the Cubs be if they lost Soriano? Where would the Mets be if they lost Wright?

The Phillies, Yankees and Tigers are just about the only teams equipped to lose their superstar and survive.

For this team to be at the bottom: Pujols would have to get injured AND Duncan and Ankiel flame out. If Pujols gets injured, the team is hurt pretty badly but they could survive it (if they had a rotation worth considering) by moving Duncan's bat to 1B and calling up Rasmus.

Like all the predictor programs and formulas, with the 2008 Cardinals, there is alot of garbage data being used. People could not pan out, for sure, but there is big upside with a healthy Glaus and Duncan, Ankiel, Barton all progressing in a full season.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 31, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

in those situations,

the cubs and mets would be much, MUCH better off than the cards would be if they lost albert, due mostly to the teams' respective pitching staffs.

but you're absolutely right as well - no expert or simulator can predict everything, and until we find something that can, we are free to be optimistic, which, despite my first few posts of the season here, is exactly what i am.

and wow, did i miss baseball. welcome back, baby.

e'rebuilding mang

by nycbirdo on Mar 31, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to mention that most of htose other superstars

aren't starting the season with an injury/coming off of surgery like Pujols and Glaus are.

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on Mar 31, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

C'mon

I harbor no delusions that this is going to be a great season in St. Louis but we're not worse than Pittsburgh and we're not the worst team in the league. That's just an absurd statement to make.

by chuckb on Mar 31, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

John Donovan

I really could care less what he thinks. I agree that the Cardinals will be worse then they have been in years, but I don't think they'll be the worst. has anyone seen Washington's rotation? At least we have the Wagonmaker.

Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle."

by erik on Mar 31, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to get too sentimental about Opening Day, but...

here goes anyway:

"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. It begins in the spring when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone."

-- A. Bartlett Giamatti

Personally, I think we got hosed on that call.

by Futility Infielder on Mar 31, 2008 9:52 AM EDT reply actions

Taking stock

I agree wholeheartedly with the #1 indicator of success for 2008 is a healthy Chris Carpenter. If it means taking it easy with him (as opposed to Mulder last season), then so be it. We need him on Opening Day 2009 more than in July 2008.

I would posit that we also need to take stock of just what it is we have in terms of young players. I hate to drag Reyes into this comment thread, but we need to once and for all figure out if and how Duncan, Ankiel, Reyes, Skippy, Ryan, Barton, and some of the youngsters down in Springfield and Memphis fit into the plan by playing them regularly. Obviously, a ton of caveats apply, but TLR's 150-ish different line-ups this season should feature as many youngsters as possible.

by bgh on Mar 31, 2008 10:27 AM EDT reply actions

agreed

On Skip. I know what the pundits and predictions say about him--and I realize hes not "young". I'm also setting my sights low but if he can give us a near .750 OPS out of the leadoff spot this year aren't we ok? Heck, thats better than what Edmonds gave us last year in CF.

Can Skip do it? I don't know but his 2007 and spring of 2008 has given me more hope.

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Mar 31, 2008 10:32 AM EDT reply actions

Assessing success

Another critical issue is Albert's production. Have we seen the last of the spectacular domination of past years? Albert should be coming into his prime at 27. If Albert becomes merely a great player rather than a 'once-in-a-generation' type, that will have an impact for the team's run-scoring abilities. Granted, he's still under contract at a reasonable rate, so it won't have any transactional effects.

by apierce on Mar 31, 2008 10:37 AM EDT reply actions

My search fu is awful

Can someone provide a link to the main VEB post where we discussed the effects of TLR batting the pitcher 8th and how it affected runs scored? One of the main posts did a great job going over it and now I can't find it.

I was foolish enough to make a quick response on this topic on BCB.

by sdrone on Mar 31, 2008 10:56 AM EDT reply actions

I love opening Day.

Sucks Im stuck at work. But at least they let me wear jeans and are handing out Hotdogs and Nacos. I might walk down to the ballpark after work and just hung out at a bar or something....

Or maybe go fishing in lake Dewitt.

In order for me to call the Cardinal's Seasion a success only a few things need to happen.

1.) Carp needs to get healthy.

2.) Cardinals need to play a hard nine. As long as they go out there and compete. (and not lay down like say...oh.. the Blues or the Rams) I will continue to go to games.

by Evilfrog on Mar 31, 2008 11:36 AM EDT reply actions

Success =

Not embarrassing ourselves. That's how low the bar is set for me. If they play hard and give their best effort, I will be satisfied.

Things that need to be accomplished:
1.) See how many pitchers we can get off the DL and on the mound and what they can contribute, especially if they can contribute in '09 or beyond.

2.) Let the youngsters play and see what they've got.

It is pretty basic for me. I hope not to endure too many blow-out games, unless we are blowing the other team away.

Here's hoping that rain (or the Rockies) doesn't ruin Opening Day!

by cardsgirl95 on Mar 31, 2008 11:49 AM EDT reply actions

hope springs eternal

It is wonderful to be a baseball fan

When oping day comes around
It doesn't matter all ages will be found
Hope springs new today
And washes the pain of last year away

Over the park we will see the wave of flags
Hitters will dig the dirt in the box
Pitchers will reach for resin bags
As managers try to out fox

It doesn't matter that snow covers my land
'Cause there will only be room to stand
In the ball park the grass will be green
And new players that I have never seen
Will be swinging bats and throwing balls
And hitting monster shots over the walls

Today men named Schumaker and Ludwick will get on base
They will do what they can to set the pace
Albert and Adam will lead this team
To an opening day victory and a playoff dream

82-80...third place

by nybirdfan on Mar 31, 2008 11:55 AM EDT reply actions

A clear vision

Thats my ultimate goal for the season. Do I expect the Cards to compete for the playoffs this year? No but its a little more than possible. However my goal is to go into the off-season knowing what we have in terms of players, what psotions we need to address in free agency, and what major league talent we have in the minors. I just want a clear vision of where the organization is going and what/who the need to become a top-tier team again in 2009. I'm granting them a pass for this year but only because this will allow us to build the team we can be in the future.

by stl3bagger on Mar 31, 2008 11:56 AM EDT reply actions

Should we expect 18-19 wins this month

going back and looking at the schedule breakdown, it seems somewhat realistic that if this team will be any good at all, they can easily win 18-19 out of their 29 games against weak opponents this month.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 31, 2008 12:00 PM EDT reply actions

Nice little article about Barton on the Cards site

It really would be a shame if he didn't get into the game today. He was so excited about making the team that he called his mother at 4 am. He took pictures of his locker and his uniform hanging in it before he even tried it on. He flew his mother into St. Louis to see him play today.

Ignoring all that, he's probably the 3rd most talented OF we have yet somehow when splits should be in his favor, he still doesn't find a way to play.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 31, 2008 12:07 PM EDT reply actions

Are you crying, HL

THERES NO CRYING IN BASEBALL! HARDCORE

by ridgesee on Mar 31, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Forgive me HL

the game's going to be rained out and I'm already in a bad mood because of that and there's nothing left to do but watch the stinking Cubs Game and see all idiots in Wrigley Field freezing their ass of watching nothing.

by ridgesee on Mar 31, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

royals

are on espn instead of the yanks right now and i love me some royals (second only to the cards)

by lopey986 on Mar 31, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Royals Allowed?

Is it not against the rules for a Cards fan to root for the Royals? I say this because as a transplant, I constantly have fellow Cards fans reminding me 1985 and Denkinger. I live in the middle of the state and I hate to be dragged into the STL vs. KC conflict.
On another note, I hate the DH in AL.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Mar 31, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Meche has looked good for the most part today

but this Tigers lineup is just sick. I feel bad for him. He's had good breaking stuff and his cut fastball has been just nasty but the Tigers are just wearing him out.

by azruavatar on Mar 31, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Playin with fire

I just got finished telling the Missus that the Royals are playing with fire right now.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 31, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

no doubt

I knew that they got Dontrelle and Miggy, but this is the first time I've actually looked at their lineup. Look at Numbers 1-7:

E. Renteria
P. Polanco
G. Sheffield
M. Ordonez
M. Cabrera
C. Guillen
I. Rodriguez

Ouch. Truly terrifying. Nice to see they got Inge in the game, even if it's in Center Field.

by effin fisk on Mar 31, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Granderson

Don't forget that Granderson is on the 15-day DL. Once he comes back he'll replace Inge, and make the lineup even better.

by fnldwn on Mar 31, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

fantasy

that is probably better than my fantasy lineup

by JBrew on Mar 31, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I dont think it against the rules, imho

I would love to see KC have a good year...at some point...The Cubbies and the Astros are the only two for me that I would not cheer for no matter what...maybe the pond scum mets too...

"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon

by nomar34 on Mar 31, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Tigers

are my # 2 team kinda, but I have an excuse. I'm from MI originally and my 1st big league game was at old Tiger stadium. The WS was weird, but of course I was rooting STL all the way. Since then, they've gone from being a far distant #2 to far, far distant #2. But they are always interesting on draft day, and their lineup is going to be scary good this year, as a zilion people have been saying all year.

Verlander still has them at a 1 hitter.

Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle."

by erik on Mar 31, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

2008 success

Larry's criteria all make sense, particularly #3 -- and besides finding a position player, I would hope we can find another cost-controlled starting pitcher (in addition to Wainwright). I'd be thrilled if by the end of the year, Reyes, Thompson, or some other cost-controlled hurler (Garcia? someone else in the minors?) establishes himself in the rotation along with Wainwright, to offset the $$ we're spending not only on Carp but the likes of Pineiro/Mulder as well.

Another criteria for success (assuming that we are not in serious contention): Convert one of our valuable-commodity vets (e.g., Izzy, Lohse, others?) into some good young prospects at the trading deadline.... Might not be easy, particularly in Izzy's case since he doesn't appear willing to leave, but let's hope Mo can find a way.

by DCRedbird on Mar 31, 2008 12:35 PM EDT reply actions

What I want to see

1. Finish at or close to .500
2. Have a winning record against the Cubs, especially if they miss the playoffs by one or two games. I'm tired of losing to them.

Also, I think this team has the potential to surprise some people this year. Maybe it's just your typical opening day optimism, but I think this team can do some good things. I won't predict it, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised either.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Mar 31, 2008 12:40 PM EDT reply actions

little help?

i'm in virginia and don't have mlb.tv...does anyone know if there's a channel or radio station that'll cover opening day, or am i just sol?

by barry whiteteeth on Mar 31, 2008 12:42 PM EDT reply actions

Unitl game time

You can stream from ktrs.com, once the game starts you have to have MLB.

by gonzostl on Mar 31, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I have Charter Cable

And this first week they're doing MLB extra innings package for free this first week.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Mar 31, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

My local Comcast system

is not offering the MLB package, so I'm limited to MLBtv this year. And no, before anyone says anything, my apartment complex does not allow dishes.

If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something.

by cardsrul on Mar 31, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah i am getting the extra innings package free this week from directv. i would actually buy it, but have they ever rectefied the situation where since i'm considered "local" and the games actually show on fsmw (which i don't get) they will get blacked out on extra innings?

by lopey986 on Mar 31, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Weather-Related Links

KMOV 4 Stadium Cam of Busch III

Various Doppler Radar Views

by bgh on Mar 31, 2008 1:04 PM EDT reply actions

Started raining in West county now

Hopefully if blows right on through. Sure doesn't look very nice out though.

by Merry CRasmus on Mar 31, 2008 1:36 PM EDT reply actions

It's bad enough that out of town

writers are talking about the "superstars" we have lost, i.e., we've been dealt a mortal blow and all is doomed. Now we've got Strauss in the PD talking about "triple-layered" superstars on the 07 team, as if he didn't watch the same games we all watched last year. He should really know better.

I know, I know, it's a trivial thing and it's opening day and I really need to take a deep breath, but I wish some of these guys would acknowledge just how little production our trio of veteran "losses" were actually contributing to the team by the end of last year.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 31, 2008 1:36 PM EDT reply actions

Sporting News

John Rawlings from the Sporting News on the radio today said he was shocked so many people are down on the Cardinals. He believes the Cubs have fatal flaws past Zambrano and Wood and that the Cardinals could compete for the division all the way until the final day.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 31, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions

It is bizarre to go on about losing Rolen

without mentioning that he's been replaced by a very, very similar player. Ah well. The beauty of ESPN is that they'll eventualy be wrong, and have nothing to do but pretend like they weren't.

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on Mar 31, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions