While we may "suck" this year, think about the 2009 draft!

by KeepOnRolen on Mar 3, 2008 9:43 PM EST Comment 23 comments

The last time the Cardinals had a draft pick selection within the top 10 was in 1998, when the Cardinals used the #5 pick on J.D. Drew. If the Cardinals finish with a mediocre 80-82 record, I guess it could be considered a success by some means, but if we finish 70-92, chances are we'll have a draft pick in the top 5 selections. Either way, there's a good chance the Cardinals have a very high draft selection in 2009. I think that's something to get excited about.

So what do you think of the Cardinals pick in the 2009 draft? I know it's an incredibly long period of time away, but we have the chance to get a really solid prospect. The only guy I really know about for the draft class is C Robert Stock from USC, who's been on the prospect radar since his early teens.

Maybe we look at a college shortstop like Troy Tulowitzki (drafted 7th overall in 2005) or a young stud pitcher (Andrew Miller, drafted 6th in 2006.) I would actually prefer that the Cardinals do not gamble on a pitcher -- there are way too many Tim Stauffers that are huge risks for injuries. I'd kind of like to see us take a college outfielder (like Nick Markakis, 6th overall, 2003.)

What do we do?

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as far away as the '09 draft is...

& as much as I would like to see the BOB turn in a better season than last, I don't see it in the cards.

To tell you the truth, I know absolutely nothing about draft eligible players, so I don't know what there will be a surplus/deficit of in '09. Personally,

I'd like to see them take a middle infielder with that good of a pick. I mean, we seem fine on outfielders for the next several years, same goes for RP, C, 1B, & 3B. I just hope that they don't piss away another pick with another Kozma or someone along those lines.

sign someone GOOD this time!

by dunc4life on Mar 3, 2008 10:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If they're smart

They will take the best available player at whatever slot they have. It's fairly impossible to look that far ahead and know who it might be.

by mojowo11 on Mar 3, 2008 10:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The draft in baseball...

is so much a gamble that it's hard to get excited over. And if there is a really can't miss player, will the Cardinals even take him, or be cheap?

by DiscoJer on Mar 3, 2008 11:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Exactly what I was thinking

I mean, if we are using JD Drew and Rick Ankiel as points of reference to get excited about, I'd rather go 82-80.

Rick Ankiel's saving grace was his return to baseball as a hitter, but he still is just as injury prone and we don't know if his head will stay screwed on straight.

I don't even want to begin to talk about Nancy Drew.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 3, 2008 11:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How the hell was JD drew not a success as a pick?

We got five and a half years of above average production out of him (or let's say four with the injuries), and then turned him into Marquis, King and Wainwright. Unless you want every draft pick to evolve into Albert Pujols and Johan Santana, the Drew pick was pretty fantastic.

Most draftees don't even reach the majors. If we're complaining about high draft pick disasters following large draft bonuses, why don't we talk about Chad Hutchinson before we talk about either of those guys?

by Valatan on Mar 4, 2008 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Success is a fickle word

would I want the Cardinals to finish below .500 just for the chance to draft a player like Drew who hit the DL every season in St. Louis, pulled in over $2 M a year while here (when that meant something for a guy not hitting FA) and providing brief glimpses of the potential he should reach...I'll take the 10 extra wins and take my chances with a mid-rounder.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 4, 2008 12:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that's the question

It's in a hypothetical situation where we have a 0% chance at contending, would you rather finish 76 wins or 68 wins.

With no evidence to the contrary: Colby Rasmus is clutch.

by joker24 on Mar 4, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

would you pay $2M to have a player that's turned

into Wainwright PLUS other players?? Who, while inconsistent and often injured (and once again, the worst of these was that Wells curveball on his wrist, which totally was his fault), was well above league average at his position during his entire tenure? Even if the dude doesn't sniff the majors, you take that deal. As much as he was a non-fan favorite, drafting Drew was a raging success

by Valatan on Mar 4, 2008 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to see how he was

well above average his entire time here. I don't have access to his VORP from his entire run here in St. Louis but I'd like to see it.

Also, you keep saying that he 'turned into Wainwright'. That was 7 years later (almost 9 until Wainwright showed up).

That was a great trade, don't get me wrong, but I'd rather us draft better in the later rounds than lose more games.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 4, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

His WARP3 hung around 4.5-4.7 from 2000 on

and was 7.1 in 2002. 2004 was a down year for him, but still... And if we're assessing the value of a draft pick, and claiming about how we were shortchanged with the Drew selection, shouldn't it be a huge plus to consider that he was valuable enough, seven years later, to net a top prospect who literally got the last out of the World Series?

If our first rounder, each year, turned into players as productive as JD Drew, I don't think that there would be any complaints about our farm system.

But that's almost an aside, I too don't really want the big club to lose games so that they can draft higher in the draft anyway. The draft is dodgy and complicated enough that I don't think the value of a high draft pick is all that great, unless it's something like the first overall, and there's some obvious guy like Ken Griffey Jr. on the board. I just thought that the attack on Drew didn't make much sense.

by Valatan on Mar 4, 2008 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And his most similar player

on B-R through age 28 (his age upon leaving StL) is hall of famer Larry Doby

by Valatan on Mar 4, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Larry Doby was an average player

who got into the HOF by the VC on social issues more than OBP.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 4, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Larry Doby also had a 136 career OPS+

There's no interpretation you could possibly hold that he was an average player.

With no evidence to the contrary: Colby Rasmus is clutch.

by joker24 on Mar 4, 2008 7:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure there is

but this has already devolved well beyond the original point.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 4, 2008 7:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes it has

But that statement is beyond my willingness to let it slide.

Lg Avg BA: .266
Doby BA: .283
Lg Avg OBP: .347
Doby OBP: .386
Lg Avg SLG: .394
Doby SLG: .490

BP has him at 354 BRAA (not replacement), -27 FRAA though their defensive stats are bad. 7 time all-star, led the league in homers twice. B-Ref has him top 10 in batting runs 8 times.

I would love to hear how he was an average player.

Was he a pure on-the-field HOF'er? Nope. Average player? Indefensible statement.

With no evidence to the contrary: Colby Rasmus is clutch.

by joker24 on Mar 4, 2008 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd throw in

Jimmy Journell, Cliff Politte, and pretty much every pitching prospect they've drafted, with the exceptions of Morris and Haren, before I'd bitch about Drew. Even Reyes belongs on this list.

"The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it."

by cardsrul on Mar 4, 2008 1:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"even reyes belongs on this list"

dude was drafted in the 15th round. how does he belong on this list?

by TICY on Mar 4, 2008 1:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oh

and Politte in the *54th* round. i think you're confusing early draftees with guys who tantalized us with potential after climbing the ladder then failed to live up to those expectations.

by TICY on Mar 4, 2008 1:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No,

I'm talking about guys who were/have been touted as prize prospects over the years, whether it's right out of the shute or later on down the road. A few of these guys(Hutcinson, Journell, Reyes, just off the top of my head) were deemed untouchable(as far as trade bait) by the front office because of their perceived future value. That's the reasoning behind my opinion.

"The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it."

by cardsrul on Mar 4, 2008 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Then you have to mention

the "electric" Manny Aybar

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Mar 5, 2008 8:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

John Ericks, Mike Milchin, Justin Pope, Chad Hutchison, Chris Lambert, Chance Capel, Jimmy Journell...there are a ton more where those came from as far as 1st-3rd round picks that never amounted to anything...How about the Yankees' Brien Taylor? He was supposed to be the AROD of pitchers.

Pitchers are a bigger gamble than position players, but can have huge payoffs. However, if I had a top 5 pick, I would lean toward a position player, and with this team, the best non-1B available. (Then fill the next 3 rounds with high upside pitchers.)

How about handin' me another helpin' of those mashed taters...thank you very much!

by Elvis on Mar 4, 2008 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

IF

The Cards end up with a pick that high, (I actually doubt they will; I see them in the 10-14 range again) one guy to set your sights on is Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri. Tremendous command right now with average velocity, but has a whole lot of growth, and hence projection, left. I think he'll end up in the low to mid 90s with that same command in a couple of years.

"An informed citizenry is the enemy of the despot, the zealot, and the sports columnist."

by the red baron on Mar 4, 2008 1:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Gibby

Average velo is a little generous right now, last year he was 86-89 in relief....though apparently at the SD tournament he was 89-91 touching 92 and a 93. He'd throw a lot harder if he didn't throw with a ridiculously slow tempo, but that might be what's giving him the command too.

Signature pitch is a great slider (even at the velo he's at now) and knows how to bury it or throw it for strikes. Also commanded a decent changeup as a freshman...which is rare. He's never gonna have a monster filled out frame, but he's a total rail and could fill out into Jeff Weaverish. Aside from the sllloooooowww tempo, really textbook mechanics if lacking in deception.

With no evidence to the contrary: Colby Rasmus is clutch.

by joker24 on Mar 4, 2008 10:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs