The Cards are poised to surprise
by CardsWin on Mar 29, 2008 6:59 AM EDT
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PrintMaking projections for any baseball season is risky, even if quantitative analysis (stats) and qualitative analysis (scouting reports) are combined. Even the most scientific, comprehensive statistical analysis, by itself, takes into account only the variables that can be quantified. This leaves a lot of variance in the projected performance unaccounted for. So, for example, as scientific and comprehensive a method as the Diamond Mind projections can miss the mark by a significant margin in projecting overall team performance or performance for individual players.
Case in point: Diamond Mind's projections for 2007 had these notable misses:
Two other notable teams were overestimated by 7 games or more:
Despite the risk of embarrassment, I will venture to make the case for what the great majority would regard as a very optimistic projection of the Cardinal win total this season.
Rather
than going into a recital of the statistical evidence, which
has been discussed in so much detail already that your eyes would glaze
over if I repeated any of it, I'll look at the broader picture for the Cardinals, using as the primary reference point the Cubs, since Chicago is the consensus team to beat this year
in the NL Central.
Bold prediction: The Cardinals will score more runs and give up a lot fewer runs
than last year, enough to more than erase their negative 104-run
differential in 2007 (just replacing the 32 starts by Kip Wells and
Mike Maroth in 2007 with league-average starts would, alone, eliminate
the entire differential, even if the Cardinal offense didn't improve). Here's the rationale:
RUNS ALLOWED
This
is considered by almost everyone to be the Achilles heal that will do
in the Cardinals this season. The doubts are easily understandable.
But I believe they are grossly overblown.
The starting pitching is the looming concern, of course. Two notes first:
The
defense will be somewhat improved from last year (probably better
in LF, SS, backup C, and RF, but significantly weaker, though still
solid, at 3B).
The relief pitching should be better than last
year, when the starters melted down and overtaxed the bullpen, finally
wearing them out by September. There will be much better
reinforcements this year, if needed, including the return of Josh
Kinney by June, and from AAA, if needed, Motte and Perez.
As
for the starters, they will leave the team very vulnerable in April.
But first the good news: Wainwright's pattern last year indicates that he will offer top tier performance (as he
did last year the last two thirds of the season) and I predict that
Lohse, with Duncan's guidance on pitch selection and preparation, will
offer legitimate #2 performance rather than his historic #3 level. The
bad news is that Thompson and Wellemeyer are #4 or #5 performers as starters, and Looper is a #6 performer (after mid-May last year
his performance was very weak the rest of the season). If that
mediocre rotation, on balance, was slated for the Cardinals for the
entire season, I'd join the chorus of those who pick the Cards for fourth place, behind the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds.
But, wait, there's hope, for two
reasons.
First, the schedule of 28 games for the month of April
includes 21 games against teams that finished under .500 last year.
That could allow the Cards to hold the fort (or keep their heads above
water, if you prefer that image, in view of the recent floods).
The biggest reason for
hope in the rotation is the depth of starting pitching in the Cardinal
supply chain, unlike last year when the team kept throwing Kip
Wells out there almost all year and resorted to disastrously failed
reinforcements such as Mike Maroth and a prematurely returned, still
very weak Mark Mulder, and a not-ready-for-prime-time Anthony Reyes.
In stark contrast this year, a series of very probable, solid improvements
will be added to the rotation, in late April (Pineiro), mid-May
(Mulder), June (Clement, perhaps), and July (Carpenter). Pineiro's #3
level of pitching, or better, will be an improvement over Thompson or
Wellemeyer's #4 level, whichever he replaces; Joel thrived under
Duncan's coaching last year with the Cards, who corrected a flaw in his
delivery that had been tipping his pitches. Mulder has regained his
strength, by all reports, and just needs to finish reestablishing his
arm slot and mechanics; he projects to perform at a #3 level at least,
possibly #2; either would be better than Thompson or Wellemeyer,
whichever is left in the rotation by May. Clement is a big question
mark, obviously; he might build his strength enough to provide #3 level
performance, which would be a huge improvement over Looper, or Clement
might not pitch one effective inning for the Cards; even if Clement
fails, it looks as if McClellan could improve the rotation by stepping
into a starting role (or Mortenson or Garcia temporarily) until
Carpenter returns, finally, in July. Again, all reports indicate that
Carp is right on track; the history of recovery from his kind of
surgery indicates he should perform this year a notch below his
strongest previous level as he continues to build strength; that would
put him at the #2 level of performance.
One more bit of hope for
the Cards comes from the fact that 12 of the 15 games the Cardinals
play vs. the Cubs will come in July or later in the season. Those 15
games will be the most important games of the regular season, since
each game provides a 2-game difference in the standings: the Cards will either gain a full game (+1) in the standings, compared with the Cubs,
or lose a full game (-1) at the end of each contest. The good news is
that in 12 of the 15 games vs. the Cubs the Cards will have their best
rotation in place:
Carpenter
Mulder
Wainwright
Lohse or Clement
Pineiro
That
could be as strong and deep as any rotation in the NL by the end of this
season. Or it could fail to materialize if some of the four starters on the DL
as the season begins do not regain good health and strength. Chances are that Pineiro will join the rotation, since the tightness in
his shoulder is not serious. And the reports on Carpenter and Mulder
indicate they are both right on track to return. Even if only one of
them returns, it would make the Cardinal rotation above average on
balance, at least (a healthy Carpenter last year, alone, instead of
Reyes or Wells, would have probably put the Cardinals in first place by
the end of the season)..
RUNS SCORED
The
Sabermatricians, using a variety of formulas, predict the Cardinals
will score more runs this year than last. I concur, based on the
method of pattern analysis I use for offensive (and defensive)
projections, reliable enough to have led me to predict the 100-win
season in 2004 when the consensus among sportswriters was that the
Cards would not even win a wild card berth.
The pattern of
previous performance for the key Cardinal players indicates that they will
contribute more on offense than the Cardinals got last year from the
same positions:
Pujols - Will get better pitches to hit, with Glaus and Ankiel batting behind him, both of whom could hit 30 HR.
Kennedy
(Backed up by Miles) - Will hit much better this year (by positive
regression to the mean after his aberrant season in 2007) and Adam will
be backed up vs. LHP by Miles, who does have a solid OBP vs. them.
(despite all his other shortcomings).
Glaus - Will have a much higher OPS than Rolen did last year and add 20-25 more HR's to the offense.
Ankiel
- Great tools, still moving up the learning curve, very motivated and
focused (in effect, replaces Encarnacion, who had
much less power)
Duncan (backed up by Barton) - Recovered from hernia, getting his batting stroke back (and has become a competent left fielder)
Schumaker
(backed up by Ludwick) - Will perform better this year than Edmonds did
last year (Schu, Ludwick, and Ankiel all outperformed Edmonds in OPS
last year by a good margin). By July an even better replacement will
arrive, Colby Rasmus.
From the other two positions, C (Molina
backed up by LaRue) and SS (Izturis backed up vs. LHP by Ryan), the
Cardinals will probably have less offense than last year. Still, that
leaves six spots in the batting order improved and only two
diminished. The net effect will be significantly more runs scored, especially more
HR's from the outfield and 3B.
On balance all of these probable
improvements indicate that the Cardinals' total runs scored will be
within 20 of the total for the Cubs this year, at least (even with Soto
and Fukedome joining Chicago). I predict the Cardinals will outscore Chicago.
OTHER VARIABLES
Aside from
the promotion of Colby Rasmus by mid-July, if not before, the Cards
will probably have a great opportunity to improve by then, by trading
surplus pitching (especially Lohse and maybe Looper, who will be free
agents at the end of the season, and probably Reyes) and a surplus
lefthanded outfielder (Duncan or Schumaker?).
BOTTOM LINE
I
predict the Cards will win at least 85-88 games this season, probably
not enough to win the wild card, much less the NL Central. But as Joaquin Andujar used to say, "Ya nevah know".
The Cardinals aren't the only team with questions and vulnerabilities. Gagne could flop as the Brewer closer, considering his awful record with Boston last year, and/or Sheets could get hurt again; and Zambrano could melt down longer than he did last season and/or Kerry Wood's arm could fail and/or Fukedome could struggle to adjust to the NL and/or Soto and Pie and other young Cub players could have their own difficult adjustments, etc.
The Cardinals have the most
questions, yes, where it matters most, in the rotation. But the
Cardinals also have a good supply of potential answers, far better than
those they tried last year (Maroth, Keisler, a weak Mulder, etc.)
Even
if the Cardinals end up only hovering around .500 by the end of this
season, it will be fascinating and fun to watch the team develop and add exciting new players (Barton, Rasmus, Perez, McClellan, Mortenson,
Garcia, etc.), reloading and shaping the team into a new blend, on the run, near-term and
long-term, with a very strong new core (Pujols and Rasmus, Carpenter and
Wainwright, perhaps Duncan, Barton and Ankiel, etc.).
This
Cardinals team seems to be set up to sneak up on the competition and
surprise them, maybe not as much this year as they did at the end of
the season in 1964 or after their miserable September in 2006, but
considering how low the expectations are for this team, it looks like
an excellent bet that the vast majority of Cardinal fans will be very
pleasantly surprised by the end of this season.
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Comments
Agreed.
For a number of non-quantifiable reasons I'm optimistic. Just the sheer quantity of starting pitching indicates five will jell as a better rotation than last year's mess. The defense should also be better ( I'm in the minority of liking Izturis), especially in the outfield. And as you indicate, Edmonds and Rolen are easily upgraded from what they contributed last year offensively. Hey, it's March 29. If we can't have hope now, when can we?
by vinniefromjersey on Mar 29, 2008 7:55 AM EDT reply actions
errors in the Diamond Mind numbers
not to quibble Cards Win, but you used the wrong set of numbers in looking at Diamond Mind. If you look at the broadest data set ---- all 4 projection systems rolled into one 4,000-season lump --- the Red Sox were called for 2d place with 89 wins, not 3d place / 86 as you suggest above. Arizona was projected in 2d place at 83 wins. The Dodger projection was almost dead-on ---- 83 wins projected, 82 actual.
All the numbers are at this link, but make sure to scroll down to the final, overall projection ---- you have to go past the individual projections for PECOTA, ZIPS, CHONE, and Diamond Mind. As I noted the other day, the Diamond Mind Blowout's predicted win totals were within 3 games of the actual win totals for half the big-league clubs.
This doesn't mean Diamond Mind is 100 percent infallible ---- I accept your point, CW, that teams can over- or under-perform. But it's a lot more accurate than you are suggesting here. Last year only 2 teams beat their projection by 10 games or more --- and only half a dozen beat it by 7 games or more. The Cards are going to need a whole lot of good luck to be as good as you're suggesting here.
But maybe they'll get the good luck they need. Let's all hope so, right?
My numbers are directly from the Diamond Mind site, not a derivative article
Larry,
It is the numbers you present that are incorrect. The numbers I relayed are the projected final standings for 2007, based on the 200 seasons Diamond Mind simulated on March 23, 2007. Here is the link:
http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/proj2007.htm
The numbers you presented are not directly from Diamond Mind but from an article written on the Yankees Replacement blog three days earlier, using outdated data.
The Diamond Mind article gives detailed descriptions for each ML team, including the specific won-lost totals projected in their multiple season simulations.
the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog exercise
is far superior to the one you're citing, CW. Replacement Level runs 4,000 seasons, vs only 200 seasons in the Diamond Mind exercise, and Replacement Level uses 4 different sets of projection data, while Diamond Mind uses only 1. naturally the smaller, narrower study that you cite is less accurate than the larger, broader Replacement Level study i am citing.
Replacement Level does a better job than Diamond Mind?
I'm very surprised that Replacement Level would come up with such different projections. Are they using exaclty the same data and formula as Diamond Mind? Even if they're using 4000 seasons vs. 200, there should not be nearly that big a difference in the percentage of outcomes. 200 is a large enough sample size, mathematically, to narrow the confidence intervals to +/- 3 games or so. (I'm estimating, based on my experience with stat analysis). Beyond even a hundred or so data points, there is a diminishing gain in the power of this sort of projection (i.e., the width of the confidence interval, or range of outcomes within the 95% probability range).
It would seem very odd that the creators of the Diamond Mind method would do too few replications of the season to reach a solid level of predictive power. Hmmmm.
here's the difference
Diamond Mind only uses one set of projection data ---- their own. Replacement Level used 4 different sets of projections last year --- Diamond Mind's, Baseball Prospectus's (aka PECOTA), Dan Szymbroski's (aka ZIPS), and Sean Smith's (aka CHONE). there are variations among all the sets of projection data, so the use of 4 different sets has the effect of regressing everything to the mean and leading to better-grounded, more reliable numbers.
just to use the Cardinals as an example: in Replacement Level's exercise last year, St. Louis averaged
84 wins a season based on CHONE
83.5 wins a season based on Diamond Mind
80 wins a season based on PECOTA
90 wins a season based on ZIPS
got it? Replacment Level ran 1,000 seasons for each set of data and came up with 4 different results. they averaged all 4 results together to come up with the aggregate projection for st louis of 84 wins.
it's a different method from the one Diamond Mind uses, but because the inputs are so much broader the results are more trustworthy. and that's empirically proven --- in every year since Replacement Level began doing simulations in 2005, its forecasts have been more accurate than Diamond Mind's.
A different set of data
Ah, the Replacement Level site actually used a different set of data (including the Diamond Mind projection). That explains it.
Was it Replacement Level that underestimated the Tigers' wins by 10 in 2006? What were their biggest discrepancies for last year?
Should Heisenberg's uncertainty principle be factored in?
I gather from your first post in this thread that 9 of the 30 ML teams beat their Replacement Level projected win totals by 7 games or more. That's almost a third! How many more teams won 7 or more games fewer than RL projected? If the number was comparable, then it would mean that RL projections are within 7 games of the actual outcome only a little more than a third of the time.
Evidently there's a lot of variance not accounted for even in the best team projection formulas today. I guess that's one big reason we get so engaged in the season. The drama is real, since no one really knows how the season will turn out. There are almost always surprises. I look forward to this year's surprises for the Cardinals, e.g. McClellan, hoping that enough will be positive to make the season a very enjoyable one....
i wholeheartedly agree w/ you re surprises
i'll be hoping for many pleasant ones in the cards' season.
obviously no projection system is perfect. if it were, there'd be no need to play the season. we could just play the whole thing on computer and be done with it, and nobody would ever want that. fortunately, projections can't account for every variable ---- but they can account for a lot of them, and as a result they are pretty accurate for most teams. so if the projection systems say the Cards are in line for 78 wins, that's not completely meaningless ----- i adjust my expectations accordingly. it doesn't mean i stop hoping for the best, but i know the odds aren't in the cards' favor.
as far as i'm concerned, the cards don't have to win anything for this to be a successful year. it'll be a success if they get carpenter back healthy and identify a few young players who can contribute for the next few years. any semblance of contention will be icing on the cake for this particular fan.
A successful season
I am in total agreement with you, Larry. Well, on everything except the number of wins projected, of course.... : )
Sincerely, such diversity of views is a big part of what makes the hot stove league as much fun as it is. And VEB is definitely the best place on the net for Cardinal fans to meet around the stove while we endure the long wait for opening day. Thank you for giving us such a great place to banter and compare notes.
Thanks to Mozeliak, too, for doing us such a great service by not just salvaging a disastrous and embarassing off-season but actually giving us an extremely interesting team with as much high potential as unanswered questions, IMHO. Mo has plugged some gaping holes; injected more youth, power, and speed into the team; added new prospects with excellent potential; and assembled a pitching rotation and reserve pipeline far better than the all-time worst Cardinal rotation of last year, etc.
What a fitting sign of the emerging new era it will be on Monday to see the infectious exhilaration of Brian Barton, Kyle McClellan, Rico Washington and other new Cardinals when they get their first taste of the motorcade and the Clydesdales. Icing or no icing, this is a fun, fascinating team already.
Good Analysis
I also think the Cards are going to surprise a lot of people. The sportswriters have generally overestimated what they lost in the offseason and underestimated the replacements.
That said, the one thing that bothers me is the general thought that the big name pitchers are going come back from injury and be better than Wellmeyer, et. al. Last years Mulder experiment shows how that can go wrong. We will have to see where we are in May, but I'm inclined to let some of the young players, particularly Brad Thompson, have their shot and not be so eager to push the rehabs into the starting rotation. I'm reminded of how the Matt Morris rehab was handled a few years ago where he was put in the bullpen for the last half of the season. I thought that turned out really well.
Health issue
I know that the Cards have not really gone out of their way to sign people with clean bills of health, but another thing to mention is that the odds have to be pretty low that over 85% of the opening day lineup will end up on the DL again. Last year, I believe 22 of 25 spent time on the DL. If they could cut the number down to a more reasonable 10 of 25 that hit the DL at some point this year...or less...then it could be a MUCH different summer.
stlfan
You used sound logic
to me in putting forth your analysis and some very fine points that can easily be overlooked by such casual observers as the majority media. I've said before, I think the Cards can compete in the NL Central (some other division...maybe not). In the end, IMHO, injuries, or the lack thereof will probably be the deciding factor on who wins the division..and when crunch time comes in October, anybody can win. Ex. 06 and 64 Cardinals.
Couple things
The piece certainly lays out an interesting, if debatable, path to improvement but a few things really stick out:
1) Expecting Mulder to return to #2 form is pie-in-the-sky optimism. His entire shoulder was reconstructed (for all intensive purposes) and that has a much lower success rate than, say, TJ surgery. Of course the front office is going to say he's on track. They always do. . .until suddenly starts are pushed back.
2)Albert Pujols will not see "better pitches" because of who is batting behind him. Lineup protection is a myth. It doesn't exist.
3) Chris Duncan is not a competent left fielder. He's a detriment on the field -- at times a severe one.
4) The offensive improvement at 3rd base will not be as significant as you make it seem because Glaus will probably miss a considerable amount of time. TLR plans to rest him and Glaus is still an injury concern. Given that the back up options on the team are probably replacement level at best for 3rd base, you're only getting improved production for 60-70% of the games.
5) You forget typical regression for pitchers like Franklin and Springer who both had unusually good years. Franklin's in particular was specious given his BABIP and BB%. We'd expect them to allow more runs this year -- perhaps significantly more.
6) This last point is simply my opinion but I think that expecting Thompson and Wellemeyer to be any kind of asset in the rotation is a grave mistake. I'd even argue that Wellemeyer is as likely to bomb as Wells or Maroth given his complete lack of control. Thompson is no great shakes in the rotation and will be overexposed given his lack of secondary offerings. Again, those are both very subjective opinions but they would hinder the Cardinals improvements in runs allowed.
Lineup Protection
Can you explain to me how lineup protection is a myth? I would just like to hear your reasons because on the face I think I would disagree with you but i would like to hear your thoughts first.
Those are some rather adventurous statements--
Line-up protection is a myth, huh? I do agree that Pujols won't see better pitches, because pitchers already fear him. But when you put a hitter in front of a guy like Pujols that has absolutely no track record, there's a good chance the pitcher won't take as many chances with the guy, not wanting to walk him. Hell, as a pitcher in high school ball, I recorded hitting stats down to the tee (including pitches thrown and how they are located.) The kid hitting in front of our "all-state" hitter definitely saw a different pitch selection than the rest of the line-up time and time again. And you can't say Duncan wasn't getting a bevy of fastballs at his number 2 spot last year.
Maybe it's personal opinion, but I think Duncan is competent in the field.
Do you forget that Rolen hasn't played a full season in what seems to be ages now? Especially healthy and not pissed off. With that said, Glaus WILL be a significant offensive improvement at third base. Even if TLR rests him and he gives us 140 healthy games, that's damn significant. That's how many Ryan Braun had . . . (and yes, I know Glaus won't put up Braun type numbers, just pointing out that 162 games isn't needed to be huge for a team).
It seems like you're mixing up personal opinion with facts. There's just as much a chance these statements you made could falter as the statements cardswin made could come true. This season is truly a crapshoot at this point. We have so many questions marks that great results could come as well as absolutely horrid results could come.
On with the (good) youth movement!
I just hope
Glaus doesn't put up Braun-type numbers on defense.
Billy Crystal is a tougher out than Izturis.
by tangledbrett on Mar 29, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
TLR has said he plans to rest Glaus once a series. Taking at his word, that's considerably less than 140 games. It's possible that he'll play that often but that hasn't been the rumblings to date.
Two problems with saying someone is going to see "better pitches". 1) Each batter hits different types of pitches better or worse. So making a blanket statement would imply that all batters are suddenly going to start seeing their favorite pitches be it slider, 4-seamer, 2-seamer, whatever. 2) Each pitcher is going to react to that type of situation differently. Again these blanket statements are total overgeneralizations. What if some pitchers get really fired up and bring their best stuff to bear on whoever is hitting in front of Pujols. What then? (Also, as a distinction -- you are discussing Duncan seeing better pitches in the 2 hole while Pujols was being discussed by CardsWin. Just don't want to conflate the two although I find them both fallacious.) The assumptions that are inherent to saying that lineup protection exists are just flawed when under rigorous analysis.
I'm pretty precise when I state something as fact or opinion. Unless you have a very unusual view of competent for instance, Duncan isn't that in the field. He's been among the worst left fielders for 2 years running. PMR had him as second to last for instance. All the models found him wanting.
I'd also like to point out that I never said CardWin was wrong. He points to some instances where things could break for the Cards. I point to some where they could break against the Cards. It's far too easy as fans to just look at the positive and ignore the negative ramifications of luck and chance.
sorry
but that explanation of hitter protection being a myth isn't too convincing to me.
The idea isn't what they hit best, it's that the predictability of what they will see goes up. Any hitter (especially a major league player) hits better when they know what's coming, no matter what pitch it is. The point of protection is that you won't get as many pitches in the dirt, chancy movement pitches, etc. By knowing what's coming, it doesn't matter what your strength is, because you'll have a better chance regardless. As for the second point, we could "what if" for ages. And even if they do bring their best stuff, the point is that they're going to be less likely to take chances that may result in walking the guy before Pujols than they will take with Pujols. I don't see how you can argue against that? Pujols doesn't JUST have a good eye. He gets more balls in the dirt, outside, inside than the guys around him. That right there is an example of protection. Peter Gammons, etc. aren't all full of nonsense. Protection actually does mean something.
And regarding opinion, I guess our definitions of "fact" and "opinion" are a little bit different. But I don't see how any predictions, speculations, or any statements regarding the upcoming season can be considered facts.
On with the (good) youth movement!
It's a fact that
we would expect regression from Springer and Franklin.
I'm relatively certain it was in THE BOOK where they talked about the myth of lineup protection but I can't remember. I'll have to continue digging. I'd still be hesitant to rely on such subjective observations about lineup protection as you present though.
It's a fact that Duncan is a >-10 fielder the past two seasons in LF.
You can try and dispute things like that by calling them "predictions" or "speculations" but they're based on more than just gut shot opinions. I'm not the one labeling them all as fact either. That would be you.
Growth trends
AZ,
If we look at the progressive improvement in Duncan's fielding over the last two seasons, don't we see a substantial improvement? Why do a simple projection of his average fielding stats over two years without taking into account his developing skill? My understanding is that in his latest ratings he is close to an average fielder. No? It would be expected that a player learning a new position would show considerable improvement, given how much skill matters in baseball, versus raw talent (e.g., Daryl Jones).
His fielding last year remained pretty awful
I linked to PMR above and UZR hadn't liked him in the past. UZR had him at -16 in 2006. PMR had him at -13.8 runs last year and (if you normalize his 2006 opportunities to his 2007 ones) -5 runs in 06. RZR had him getting worse from 2006 to 2007.
I haven't seen any stats that point to him improving his outfield defense this coming year.
Duncan as DH
If Duncan is still that bad, then perhaps when Rasmus joins the team, by early July if not before, Duncan will be traded to an AL team, before the July trading deadline. Barton and Schu could then cover LF, Ankiel in RF. The Cards would have a surplus of LH OF's at that point, and they'll probably still need Schu to lead off. Ankiel is too much a part of the team to trade (the longest tenure with the Cards, now that Edmonds is gone!). Mather (or, Lord help us, Gonzalez!) might come into the mix, too, to replace Duncan's power.
Again, the Cards are protected by much better options than they had last year, in the OF as well as in pitching.
my only hope
is that his defense became much worse in the last month or so when he was hurt. He looked really, really bad, like "can't run" bad, in that time frame. If that's the case, then he MUST have been better early on, right?
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
Here's what Bernie Miklasz write in the PD 03/30/2008:
...the disproportionate criticism of left fielder Chris Duncan is a little odd.
Is he a good left fielder? Well, according to John Dewan’s respected Fielding Bible plus-minus system, Duncan rates as slightly below average, but hardly qualifies as terrible. The same is true of the zone rating system used by STATS. Over the last two seasons, Duncan’s ZR of .854 ranks about 10th best on a list of regular LFs in the National League. He isn’t great, obviously, but based on zone rating he’s gotten to more catchable fly balls than Pat Burrell, Jason Bay, Adam Dunn and Carlos Lee (among others).
Duncan isn’t smooth, but he generally snares the balls that he should get to. And left field isn’t a standard preserve of great defense. A lot of teams use left field as a holding area for big bats. It’s a way to get sluggers into the lineup.
Dewan's +/- would appear to be the outlier
I think Bernie is falling into the same trap that a lot of teams do concerning LF. If you have a player like Duncan whose a +30 runs offensively and -15 defensively that player is a +15. Just because LF is a place where you typically see poor fielding doesn't change the defensive contributions. It's a rationalization, sure , but is that player any more valuable than someone who is a +10 hitter and +5 defender? Not really but I suspect our perception of the other player (a Juan Encarnacion type) would be much harsher.
Chris Duncan isn't a bad player. He's a bad fit for the Cardinals.
But until Duncan can be swapped for a starter
we're stuck with him. I'm sure Jocketty and Mo both have made plenty of calls trying to get a SP for Dunc.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
Sorry, I forgot that there's some middle point between fact and opinion. I'm not quite sure what it is, but it seems there is one. Because apparently your statements were neither opinion nor fact.
All I was saying earlier is that your presentation resembles fact (e.g."Lineup protection is a myth. It doesn't exist." and "Chris Duncan is not a competent left fielder.") while those statements are more a matter of opinion. Even a projection / opinion made by looking over detailed statistics is still opinion. Maybe it's a fact that you expect regression from Springer and Franklin, but I'd argue differently and I'm sure others would too. Maybe their better numbers have a lot to do with their new team / ballpark.
And my observations regarding batter protection aren't "such subjective." As said earlier, I spent about 4 years tracking exact pitches day after day way back when. Sure it was high school ball, but the coaching is not all that different from professional. There is a clear difference in the pitches thrown between #2 and #3 guy. Take it with a grain of salt if you will, but you might want to take The Book with a grain of salt as well. Plus, please don't call my presentation subjective when you're presenting a "what if" scenario regarding a pitcher's emotions.
On with the (good) youth movement!
Comparing notes
Thanks for your comments, AZ. Here's my return serve : )
1) The projection for Mulder is based on actual observations in his most recent tosses. I agree Duncan and LaRussa might spin his prospects on the "pie-in-the-sky" side, but I trust what Joe Strauss says. He's nobody's fool. Same for Derrick Goold. Both have affirmed that Mulder looks ready to return to form.
2) Could you please provide an empirical analysis that supports your assertion that lineup protection is a myth? If there is such evidence, I'm not aware of it.
3) The latest defensive ratings, as I understand it, show Duncan to now be a respectable fielder. I don't have the link at hand. If no one else does, I'll dig it out later.
4) You make the assumption that Glaus will miss a lot of time. TLR's comments do indicate that, but Glaus' own comments about how good his foot feels and Glaus' play in the field indicate that his surgery this off season was successful. He said that last season it was too painful to play more than three days in a row, but this season he has felt no pain or discomfort. Good signs!
5) I totally agree that Franklin and Springer were above their career averages last year. But in Franklin's case it is possible that his sudden shift in effectiveness was based on how he was prepared and coached by Duncan and TLR. Still, I agree that just based on statistical history Franklin and Spinger are candidates to regress to their means. If they do, Josh Kinney can step in, or Politte, or McClellan, Perez, Mott, etc. Again, Mo has done a brillian job of building the Cardinal pipeline of replacements, if needed.
6) I never claimed Thompson and Wellemeyer were rotation assets! Quite the contrary. I'm as eager as anyone to see both replaced by Pineiro and Mulder. I'd much prefer to see Reyes or McClellan in place of Thompson or Wellemeyer. I'd much prefer to see Looper out of the rotation, too. The good news is that Thompson and Wellemeyer will be in the rotation only for a few weeks, at a time when the Cardinals face weak opponents....
James Click discusses lineup protection in BPs
Baseball between the numbers. JC Bradbury also does a study with the goal of disproving it in "The Baseball Economist" although I'm not familiar with his work more than in passing.
I don't think we're really far apart in our opinions -- I trend toward the pessimistic responses being the primary difference.
I agree....
with the Cardswin post- more than I disagree. I do think that RA is set to have a breakout season- and think the outfield in particular will be much better than last year. I think the prospects in AAA are so close- that the slightest breakdown by Franklin or Springer can be offset by the callup of Perez/ Motte/ Worrell. My only hesitation is this team is built around the word "IF"... IF El Hombre's elbow holds up, IF Glaus can play 130 plus games, IF the outfield performs to what many people feel they are capable, IF the pitching, etc.....
I still agree- Cards win wild card- IF.....
The easiest way to surprise
Is to start out with low expectations. I do think we will be better than some people are saying. (I think Jayson Stark at ESPN has us winning 67 games) But I am not convinced that we are going to do anything like Colorado or Arizona did last year. I agree with AZ, I am concerned about the regression of the bullpen. Especially with Looper, Welly, and Thompson starting in the rotation. Something tells me we aren't going to see a whole lot of CG's out of this group. In fact these guys will be lucky to average 6 innings per start. My guess is Welly will average about 5. The dude barely made it that far against Springfield last night. This means the bullpen is going to get worn out.
I am excited to watch Ankiel's progression as a hitter, the debut of Sir Rasmus, Albert being Albert, Wainwright's continued development, and hopefully beating the Cubs many, many times. Also, I am curious to see how Schumaker is going to handle being an everyday player. If nothing else, there are some great storylines to follow this season.
Most of all, I am SICK of the offseason. I am sick of the what-ifs, I am ready to see it unfold like the soap opera that is the 162 game baseball season. Who will get hurt? Who will get healthy ?(please god, let it be Carp) Who will surprise? Who will dissapoint? Who will be traded? Who will we add?
I am ready, just purchased the cable package so I can watch the games (since I have the misfortune of not living anywhere near the motherland).
Lets play ball!
Billy Crystal is a tougher out than Izturis.
Out on a limb.
You heard it hear first 95 wins for the division penant or wild card berth.
"Why does he keep saying that?"
I really don't doubt
that they could finish with high 80s to early 90s in win.
But I also don't doubt that they could get 60 wins.
This teams has such a huge amount of questions marks that literally anything could happen. That's why I'm excited for this season to begin!
On with the (good) youth movement!
Who the heck knows?
That's why they play the games. I'm still sticking with the Reds and Aaron Harang is going to get the Cy Young Award this year.
I'm glad that the central division has made at least some improvements-to the point that I see everyone except the Astros and Pirates with a chance to contend. But the Reds are going to be on top when it's over.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Pass me that joint....
:D
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Mar 29, 2008 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Um, No.........
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I fail to see
why it is crazy to think the Reds can win the Central.
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
I can explain myself.....
Big boppers Dunn, Griffey
All around good hitter in Phillips
Encarnancion is going to breakout
As is Joey Votto
Weathers good set up man
Cordero is missing bullpen link as new closer
Harang and Arroyo good innings munchers and good pitchers
Good live arms in Volquez and Cueto
Good stuff on the farm just waiting for the call
Dusy always takes new team to the top of the division first year he arrives. He did it with the Cubs and Giants.
They are primed for a run IMO
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
actually,
Peter Gammons this morning said they could be a dark horse. Great minds think alike, right? You might be onto something.
Plus, imagine if Homer Bailey gets into actual form this year. On top of Volquez and Cueto . . . damn I'm jealous.
On with the (good) youth movement!
I've been seeing them as a contender since they picked up a closer.
That was their biggest hole to fill. They also put together a nice little run towards the end of last season where they played much better and actually won some games. I'm glad to see a big name guy sees what I see.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Eh...
It's not impossible, but their pitching is nearly as up in the air as ours. Granted, theirs has much more upside with players like Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez (and Homer Bailey, whenever he is brought back up), but none of them have proved anything in the major leagues, and they are just as likely to get blown up, as they are to dominate. To think that those young arms are at all capable of putting in 200 innings already , is unrealistic. The addition of Cordero was definitely a solid move (although he really blew down the stretch for the Brewers last year), but the rest of their bullpen is a huge question mark.
As for the offense, it's certainly potent, but you can't rely on Griffey playing more than 100 games and the big donkey will hits usual 40+ HR's, but he'll also strike out 200 times. Joey Votto SHOULD start, but I guarantee Dusty will start Hatteberg over him and I have no idea why Jay Bruce isn't on their opening day roster. Their defense is also highly questionable.
In my opinion, the Cardinals have just as much of a chance as winning this division as the Reds do. Both teams are full of question marks, especially in the pitching department.
But that's what blogs are for, differing opinions.
...just a bit outside....
by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Mar 31, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
They also have Josh Fogg and Matt Belisle around.
Not world beaters, but perfectly serviceable at the back end of the rotation. I never said that the Cardinals didn't have a chance. I just don't understand why no one takes the Reds seriously.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Bah...
This is going to be a bad team, and posts like this are just going to set yourselves up for disappointment. It's like getting all excited when buying a lottery ticket.
You can't seriously expect to count on anything from Mulder. He hasn't pitched in 2 years, really. To suddenly expect him to be great in the rotation is pretty silly, especially considering he's simply not that great a pitcher to begin with ever since his hip troubles. Even in 2005, a lot of his low ERA had to due with luck and good defense.
Carpenter likely won't be seen for more than a month, and again, he won't be effective at first because he hasn't pitched in a while.
Staring pitchers can't suddenly go from not pitching to being their old selves. It takes a while to extend their stamina and such.
And any offensive gains will be damaged by Izturis. I don't think people realize just how bad he is, againk, despite him playing in the same division for the last 1 1/2 years. But oh yeah, it's simply "rust" and him not playing enough that keeps him from his All-Star .711 OPS days of 2004.
Two Directions
I could see the Cards being a mediocre 75 win team OR a surprise contender in the NL Central. The first scenario is more likely, but IF their staff holds together early, IF the M.A.S.H. unit pitchers come back with positive contributions, and if the new-look lineup manages to scratch out 9 hard innings, the 08 Cardinals could surprise some people. However, I don't see a division title as a possibility given the talent gap between the BOB and the two favorites. Contending for the WC is the best we can hope for in the best of circumstances in my book.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Mar 29, 2008 9:09 PM EDT reply actions
I'll have the large Polish dog
and a quart of bud. No not that lite crap! Oh yeah, and a large bag of seeds. Cubs finish third behind Brewers and Cards. The Reds!!!!! Put that fatboy out.......
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Mar 29, 2008 10:52 PM EDT reply actions
Hate to blow your cover
But I've come to the conclusion that you are Kyle Lohse. If I'm wrong please let me know.
You knew he was signed before anyone, anywhere and also knew he was in shape and ready to go. You had a spot on description of what would have been going through his head on the mound in the playoffs last year. Your screen name matches because Lohse is a California native. Most of the people eating a large bag of seeds at the ballpark are in the dugout or bullpen not in the stands.
Now the Reds comment, come on. I know they didn't give you any run support last year but put that fatboy out, harsh.
Don't get me wrong, it would be great having a player post here. Maybe give us some insight into whats happening in the clubhouse. Just remember, your boss Mo reads some of this stuff.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Mar 30, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry to disappoint Mr. Holmes
A fat boy on the West Coast refers to the joint being passed around in previous posts. I did play on a couple of State Champion softball teams though, seed fetish's dies hard. I have watched K Lo for a good number of years though, as he moved through various organizations. The Reds problems are systemic. They have so much baggage, K Griffy is a corrosive egotist, Arroyo sucks, their Bull Pen sucks...they will never get it to the closer. Adam Dunn....is adam done. They will battle Houston for the cellar....... bet on it........ I don't know the Cards yet....I'm learning with everyones kind help. My message is......Don't be afraid to hope they'll be good...and lucky......enjoy your team.......don't fear for them so much and they will cause you more enjoyment. They've only lost one game since the K signed......a good omen......have another dog with everything.......
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Mar 30, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
The following could just as easily happen.
Now, let's look at the other end of the spectrum.
Lineup:
1. RF Skip Schumaker -- hits 7 home runs on the season and steals 25 bases.
2. CF Rick Ankiel -- fades back into an AAAA hitter after striking out 150 times and hitting .240 with 20 home runs.
3. 1B Albert Pujols -- Nagging health problems result in the worst year of his career -- he hits .300 with 30 home runs.
4. 3B Troy Glaus -- hits with significatly more power than Rolen, but still struggles with injuries that plagued him in 07. Hits .265 with 25 home runs.
5 LF Chris Duncan -- hits .240 with 20 home runs after failing to show plate discipline and continuing to regress.
6. C Yadier Molina -- great defense, hits .270 with 8 home runs.
7. 2B Adam Kennedy -- maxes out at 4 home runs.
8. SS Cesar Izturis -- displays slightly above average defense, hits .240 with 2 home runs.
So it looks like the team MIGHT hit about 130 home runs on the season.
Can a team that combines to hit 14 home runs with its 6-7-8 hitters make the playoffs?
Can a team with Todd Wellemeyer as a starter make the playoffs?
No one with a sane mind can expect Mulder and Carpenter to return this year. I've pretty much written Mulder off as done, and Carpenter won't be ready to pitch when he DOES get back from TJ Surgery. Do you really think that TJers immediately come back with ace stuff?
The bullpen will suck aside from Izzy, Franklin will regress, Kinney is a big ? mark, Looper will regress.
For the first four months, your pitching rotation will look like this:
1) Adam Wainwright -- 9-9, 4.10 ERA
2) Braden Looper -- 5-11, 5.75 ERA
3) Brad Thompson -- 6-10, 5.20 ERA
4) Anthony Reyes -- Who knows? -- 9-7 4.50 ERA
5) Todd Wellemeyer -- 3-11 -- 6.10 ERA
The Cardinals' will show a strong improvement over the course of this season
The most crucial factor for success or failure, with the highest uncertainty, is the starting rotation. The projection from past performance, taking into account patterns of development, injury recovery, etc., makes this the most likely (midpoint) outcome for the rotation:
1) Adam Wainwright -- ERA around 3.00 (look at the last four months of 2007 - he adjusted to the NL much better than the league adjusted to him, and now he's a year older and more skillful than ever)
2) Braden Looper -- 5.00 ERA sounds about right, I agree, but Looper will be bumped from the rotation by the end of May, when Pineiro, Mulder, and Clement should join Wainwright and Lohse
3) Brad Thompson -- 4.75 ERA. I'd expect Brad to be under 5.00, based on last year's performance and his spring training. He'll be replaced by the third week of April by Pineiro or in May by Mulder
4) Kyle Lohse (not Reyes) - He'll thrive with Duncan's preparation and coaching, with an ERA around 4.00
5) Todd Wellemeyer -- 4.75 ERA sound about right, based on last year's ERA as a starter. He'll be replaced by the third week of April by Pineiro or in May by Mulder.
If any of the recovering pitchers fails to step in as upgrades, there are good options to step in temporarily: McClellan, Reyes, Mortenson, Garcia, Boggs, etc.
For the last half of the season, with Carpenter back or one of the younger pitchers emerging as a quality starter, the Cardinal rotation is likely to be even better, probably as good from top to bottom as any in the NL Central.
Of course, if the Cubs or Brewers get too big a head start before July, it may be too late by then for the Cards to catch up. But with a well stocked pipeline of starting pitching on the way, and a very good bullpen from the start (progressively better over the season as Kinney, Politte, Johnson, Perez, Motte replace anyone who falters), and a more powerful offense and more speed than last year, it seems very reasonable to expect this team to end up several games over .500. With a few good breaks, this team could even win 88 or more games, perhaps enough to win the Wild Card. But the flip side is, yes, that with a few more than the average number of bad breaks, the team should still be only a .500 team, and if they have even half the bad breaks they had last year - very likely, but possible - this team could be a fifth place team.
Difference between..
The difference between the Diamondbacks or the Rockies in 07 and this year's Cardinals:
D-Backs had an incredible amount of young talent (Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson) that was making an impact in it's first year. They had a completely balls-out guy in Eric Byrnes who was expected to atleast hit 25 homers with 25 SBs. Hudson was a tremendous defensive 2B. They counted on Webb and Doug davis to carry the pitching staff. They had a workhorse in Livan and a young stud who came out with an unexpected 4.30 ERA. They had 5 guys in the bullpen with 3ish ERAs.
The Rockies had 3 big time hitters -- Helton, Holliday and Atkins, that they could rely on. They had Hawpe, who had been significantly better than Chris Duncan. They had an immensly talented young SS in Tulo who was expected to be an All-Star when he was drafted. Even their version of Aaron Miles (Kaz Matsui) stole 30 bases.
Their pitching staff wasn't particularly dominating, but they had an above-average bullpen, 3 good to above average starters in Francis, Cook, and Jimenez/Morales. They had two slightly below average guys in Hirsh and Fogg.
Mathew Leach of MLB.com sums it up well
The list of ifs is long, but not impossible. If they stay healthy and hit for power on offense, if they improve the defense and if most of the ailing starters are productive, it could be a year of legitimate contention. But the margin of error is extremely thin, and if a few of the possibilities fall through, it could be a long year.
Mathematician predicts Cards will finish 4 games out
Mathematician Foresees Romps For Major League Baseball's American League In 2008
ScienceDaily (Apr. 1, 2008)
(Excerpts)
NJIT's indefatigable math professor Bruce Bukiet is once again opining on outcomes for this season's Major League Baseball teams. His picks are based on a mathematical model he developed in 2000. His goal is two-fold.
"I use my mathematical model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games during the baseball season," he said. "But I also use my system to combat math illiteracy...."
Bukiet's system for recommending wagers has produced positive results for five of the seven years he has posted results. His model provides the number of games each Major League Baseball team should win in 2008. Bukiet, an avid Mets fan, is also associate dean of NJIT's College of Science and Liberal Arts....
His predictions follow, including expected number of wins for each team....
In the National League Central Division, Bukiet's model calls for the top five teams to be within five wins of each other. With the model's typical error, any team but the Pittsburgh Pirates (with 71 wins) could eke out the division championship. Bukiet calls for the Milwaukee Brewers to win 84, the Chicago Cubs to win 83, the Cincinnati Reds to win 81, the St. Louis Cardinals to win 80 and the Houston Astros to win 79 games....
"These results give a guide of how teams ought to perform during the season but there are so many unknowns, especially concerning trades, injuries and how rookies will perform that cannot be taken into account," added Bukiet.
Bukiet's main areas of research have involved mathematical modeling of physical phenomena, including detonation waves, healing of wounds, and dynamics of human balance. He has also applied mathematical modeling to sports and gambling, in particular for understanding baseball and cricket.
For full text of article go to this link
Could adding Rasmus, Mulder, Carpenter, players acquired in trade, etc., take Cards to NL title?
If it is true that the most likely probability mathematically is for the Cards to finish four games out of first place in the NL Central, is it not reasonable to hope that the Cardinals could win the NL Central as a series of reinforcements for the team arrives, by adding Mulder, Rasmus, Carpenter, and promotions and trades?
This year, unlike last, the Cards should eventually have a surplus of tradable players, including:
- lefthanded outfielders (when Rasmus is promoted)
- relief pitchers (after Kinney and Johnson return from DL and Politte, Perez, Motte are promoted, etc.)
- starting pitchers (after Pineiro, Mulder, Clement, and Carpenter join Wainwright, Lohse, and Looper, and, in reserve, Reyes, not to mention promotable prospects such as McClellan, Boggs, Mortensen, and Garcia),
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