Viva El Birdos: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Fedor vs Rogers Results and Live Coverage

reyes: the stakes

writing from a hotel room on the 14th floor . . . .

i know a lot of you are tired of reading / talking about anthony reyes, but he’s an important player --- important enough that his roster status merits an intervention by the front office. the rookie g.m. is very publicly overruling his hall-of-fame manager here; obviously reyes matters a great deal. as i wrote last june, the stakes are much larger than the fate of one pitcher:

the never-ending debate about him is really just a proxy debate about the future of the organization. as a general rule (and i realize there are individual exceptions here), those of us who urge patience with reyes tend to think that players like him --- young, cheap, and homegrown --- represent the key to the cardinals' future and therefore are too valuable to give up on. and those who are ready to give up on him tend to believe (again, generalizing very liberally) that the cards should just stick with formula that produced 6 division winners in 7 years: bring in competent veterans who know how to play the game and let tony and dave get the most out of 'em. the argument over reyes could also be construed as a proxy for the luhnow v jocketty argument. . . .

i would no longer characterize this as merely a proxy debate; it really is about the future of the organization --- about whether or not personnel decisions will be guided by any semblance of a long-range strategic vision; about stats vs scouting; about how to get maximum yield from the organization’s assets; ultimately, about who's in charge. i cite two quotes from today’s post-dispatch article:

Mozeliak: "As far as asking whether I position it as the manager's team or the organization's, I'd say ultimately it's the organization. That's who we all work for."

La Russa: "The decision of who gets in uniform is ultimately placed with the front office and/or ownership. I just appreciate the coaches and I having input in that. I also understand that at some point the decision is theirs. But once you get them, the decision how to play them is mine and the coaches'. . . . ."

the disagreement among the cards’ decision-makers isn’t just about reyes; it’s about priorities --- about how, and by whom, organizational decisions will be made. this argument has been going on for at least a year and a half; it cost jocketty his job. and it's still unresolved. that's the issue of greatest interest here, an issue far larger than the composition of the opening-day rotation or bullpen.

when mozeliak was hired, there were some doubts that he'd be able to stand up to la russa. if reyes winds up on the roster (and that's still not decided), it'll signal something of a power shift. a healthy one, imho.

* * * * * * * * *

on an unrelated note: what happened to all the cardinals’ curveballers? from 2000 through 2006 the rotation was dominated by guys who relied heavily on uncle charlie (kile, ankiel, morris, carpenter, suppan); the crystallizing moment of the ’06 championship run was a curve that froze carlos beltran. but the guy who threw that pitch is the only member of the current staff who possesses a plus curve. indeed, he’s the only one who throws more than 4 or 5 curveballs a game. here are the curveball percentages for each cardinal starter, according to josh kalk’s database of pitch-types from the 2007 season:

neither clement nor mulder threw enough pitches in 2007 to show up in kalk’s database, but fangraphs has pitch-type data going back to 2005; according to it, clement does not throw a curve. about 15 percent of mark mulder’s pitches were curveballs in injury-marred 2006-07; in 2005, his last good year, he only threw half as many curves.

i raise this point merely as a curiosity; i’m not suggesting that the current pitchers should throw more curveballs, or the team should acquire more curveball pitchers. it’s merely something i noticed.

1 recs  |  Comment 153 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

More from Viva El Birdos

Lidge, La Russa

Oct 2009 by DanUpBaby - 464 comments

choosing up sides

Jun 2009 by lboros - 258 comments

Good News, Everyone

Dec 2008 by DanUpBaby - 91 comments

fickle finger of fate

Jun 2008 by lboros - 231 comments

Comments

Display:

So it doesn't get lots

Hardcore asked about Barton's number at the end of yesterday's thread. I figured I would copy my reply so it doesn't get lost down there since it is an interesting thing to know.

http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/bird-land/bird-land/2008/03/ludwicks-wicked-case-of-deja-vu/
"For the numerologists out there: Barton will wear No. 54 when he arrives at Busch Stadium as a big leaguer Monday. Kyle McClellan will wear No. 46."

by StLHugo on Mar 27, 2008 7:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Cardnilly

anyone know what became of Scott?

"Say something once, why say it again?"

by Alxfritz on Mar 27, 2008 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Booo 54

Should have just stuck with Double Musial.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 27, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Free Reyes

I have never understood LaRussa and Duncan's treatment of Reyes and it has always frustrated me. They seem to have long ago written this kid off for some reason that goes way beyond what he's bringing to the mound. When his coaches needed him most last year they abandoned him, this spring clearly they have show him little support. I don't get it, this kid pitched in a World Series has solid stuff and I just bet if his coaches decided to show a little faith in him and actually work with him rather then banishing him every chance they get, he could be a solid young back of the rotation pitcher with decent stuff. Good for Mo for standing up to Tony and Dave on this matter. Dave ain't god on pitching, Kip Wells anyone?

by ghostofjimlindeman on Mar 27, 2008 8:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Curves

I like curves. The pitch is cool too.

Seriously, that is interesting. I hadn't thought of that but Carp throws a nice curve (don't know the percentages), so at least if he were healthy there would be two guys in the rotation. What about some of the guys waiting for their chance at Memphis? Parisi, Boggs, Ottavino? etc...

by paposse on Mar 27, 2008 8:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The curve...

is really seeing a downfall in all of a baseball. The reason is that, simply, it's harder to learn and control than a slider. If you think about all of baseball, who throws a good, old-school, 12-6er?

Carp
Waino
Brett Myers
Felix Rodriguez
Oswalt

I know there are more, those are just the only ones I can come up with. Anybody else?

by Jhusk on Mar 27, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ben Sheets

when he's not hurt

by chris13 on Mar 27, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lincecum, Beckett, Verlander, Meche, Burnett

If we're talkin lefties: Bedard, Hamels, Hill

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Mar 27, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Flash Gordon

had an absolutely filthy bender back in the day....

Personally, I think we got hosed on that call.

by TurdFerguson on Mar 27, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

zito

we could have given him 120 million last year, then we'd have another.

"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy

by FutureMan on Mar 27, 2008 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

126 million

Zito's average fastball velocity the last three years: 87.3, 85.8, 84.5. Yikes.

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Mar 27, 2008 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is that supposed to be Hernandez?

I think Felix Rodriguez retired a few years ago and I didnt think he had that great of a curve...

"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon

by nomar34 on Mar 27, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And Hernandez' out off-speed pitch is the slider

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Mar 27, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why exactly did the front office

bring back TLR and his sidekick again? What a diva this guy is...Jeebus. He is simply not worth putting up with him and his schtick for another two seasons.

Steriods is...is bad.

by Handsome Jimmy on Mar 27, 2008 8:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Looking at where the Cards are

...I wondered the same thing. This is not a team that would lend itself to TLR's preferred style of team (i.e. chalk full of proven veterans). I was actually hoping, back when all the TLR-to-NYC rumors were flying, that he would take flight to the Bronx and that we could scoop up a Girardi type who has proven he can get young talent to shine. But, in the end, that's the problem, isn't it? Are we rebuilding or aren't we? Are we embarking on a youth movement or aren't we? We're strattling the fence, evidenced by the end of last season to the beginning of this one: re-hiring TLR, re-signing Pineiro as a placeholder, sending Rasmus down (a move I agree with but that a team in true "rebuilding mode" likely would not have made), trading Jimmy for a prospect, trading Rolen for a veteran 3B, Barton over Juan Gone, Izturis over Ryan, Miles/Kennedy over Hoffpauir, and now the Reyes debate.

As for

by bgh on Mar 27, 2008 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They did about as good as possible

Am I the only one who sees the moves we made this year as positives. We have moved towards the future while also having a chance in the present. I'm a huge TLR supporter so i can't really argue that contention objectively. (Hell my dog is named La Russa). As for the signings, trades, position battles, I see them as fiscally smart and a move to the future. Pineiro -- a little high slary wise but better than pretty much any other options available, also have the ability to be in the bullpen in the future also. I don't see how anyone can complain about the Rolen trade. I have a feeling by the end of the season the media will look at this trade and comment how Mo fleeced the Blue Jays. THis is also a move towards the future. We can send Glaus packing in two years and look for our new youth. I'm saying all this and Rolen was my favorite. (my other dog is named Rolen). Barton won the battle, we should all be rejoicing. We need to see the Juan gone experiment as a 'make albert and yadi happy' venture.Also I feel a lot of people see having success for one season in AA equates to someone having the ability to be successful in the majors. Its this simple: Hoffpauir and Rasmus are not ready. If we are truely dedicated to the future, we need to let them mature. We have a chance to win now but also looking to our future. Can we ask for much more? Maybe we are with this Reyes situation but I will stay away from that.

by stl3bagger on Mar 27, 2008 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let the Fleecing begin

Rolen will start the season on the DL with an injured finger tip.

by Ray Lankford on Mar 27, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, I can't let this stand

Wow. That's incredibly disingenuous.

For the record, during fielding practice a ball broke the middle finger of his throwing hand AND completely ripped off the fingernail. The fracture was apparently bad enough to require surgery and have a screw inserted into his hand.

But here's the grisly part: "The fracture isn't really the problem. It's just that when he ripped the nail off he took off another layer of skin, and it exposed the bone."

So I'd hardly try to spin that as if Rolen has a fuckin' "boo-boo on his widdle finga." Unbelievable.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 27, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow yourself

I pointed out that Rolen was going to start the season on the DL and Troy Glaus won't. This was in response to the previous poster suggesting the Rolen / Glaus trade will be viewed as MO fleecing the Jays. So in terms of "who got the better deal," I pointed out (somewhat tongue-in-cheek) that so far the scales are tipping in our favor because Rolen is on the DL.

Nothing in my post was "disingenuous." I never suggested Rolen was a pussy, so I think you should re-read what I wrote before suggesting I made light of the situation in some "unbelievable" fashion. I said Rolen had an injured finger tip, which he does. For the record, I read the same article you cited before my previous post. I wasn't spinning anything, so calm the fuck down.

by Ray Lankford on Mar 27, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Apologies

You are absolutely correct. I totally misread your post as an unwarranted attack on Rolen, and I got really POed and took it out on you without cause. I guess I'm still pretty cheesed off about having to trade Rolen in the first place. My bad.

I'm really embarrassed, so I'm gonna go crawl under a rock now...

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 27, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Cards were stuck.

There are quickly becoming two factions in the Cards fan base, the TLR haters and the TLR lovers. In addition, you have this running sentiment that this "youth movement" is nothing more than a way for the Cards to spin not wanting to pay for players. You can see the desire to try to appease both in this offseason's moves. They brought back TLR/Dunc because they wanted to convey that they are still trying to be competitive. They really had to supplement the team with average veterans (Pineiro, Clement, Glaus) because they are still at least one year away from having anything available there internally. If they put out a team of Wainwright, Looper, and 3 AA pitchers to go along with Ryan, Hoffpauir, Schumaker, Ankiel, and Duncan in the field; fans in this town would stop going to the games by mid-May. That team will not compete. Pujols may look for a way out of town, or he would opt for surgery this year.

Some of us really prefer to watch young baseball players with untapped potential, but the casual fan doesn't. The Cards need to continue a revenue stream while trying to make this transition. I am happy to see Mo standing up to TLR/Dunc for what is right for the organization. It will be interesting to see how the two pout. I think if Reyes doesn't get traded early, this is going to be an incredibly uncomfortable year for this kid.

by etp_stl on Mar 27, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I liked a lot of the offseason's moves

Don't get me wrong. I was just pointing out the seeming dichotomy of the offseason moves. It seems as if we came to a bit of a fork in the road and we took it; which, playing in the NL Central may allow us to remain competitive.

Frankly, I'd rather have spent money on a top-tier pitching prospect in last year's draft than on Miles and Izturis. Far cheaper players with similar, if not better, skill sets, while we could rejuvenate our farm system even more dramatically. That is my primary problem: overpaying for mediocre, veteran MLB players instead of (gulp) Boras-represented draftees.

by bgh on Mar 27, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"becoming"?

There have been TLR haters and lovers since day one. What I find funny, though, is that the criticisms have completely flipped--when Tony came in, the complaint was that he benched Ozzie (how could you have a more proven veteran at this point?), and that he didn't rely on speed enough as a weapon. Heh.

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on Mar 27, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My point wasn't ...

to discuss the early irrational feelings towards the man. The point was that the "seeming dichotomy of the offseason moves" was really there. They were trying to manage this transition, and try to at least somewhat appease both of these factions. If they bring LaRussa back, then there were inevitably going to be those who questioned their sincerity in the "youth movement." If they bring in somebody else, then they would have to deal with those saying that they are just taking advantage of the fan base and the increased revenue stream.

So, they brought LaRussa back; and now Mo is dictating to TLR/Dunc that they will bring along youth they don't want/think is ready. It is a compromise, but it is still a very difficult situation.

by etp_stl on Mar 27, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

stability

i always got that impression that dewitt brought tony back for stability during the team's "transition". i really don't think he wanted the team to have a new gm, manager, coaching staff, president (if he saw that coming), etc.. all at the same time. i think bringing TLR back at least gave him a known quantity going into the future. it sounded like Mo felt the same way in a recent interview. it helped that TLR already had so much experience in managing the team and running spring training that Mo didn't have to worry about it as much and could focus on the other parts of his job.

i don't know any offhand but how many teams have that kind of overall in one off season? i can only imagine the mess we could be in.

"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy

by FutureMan on Mar 27, 2008 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

plus

from TLR's comments after his re-signing i always thought he would only take the job for one year anyway. he said something along the lines of only wanting to sign a one year contract but signed a two because he never liked how a team acted at the end of a manager's contract.

almost seems like he wants to give the impression he'll be here for two but will only stay for one of them.

"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy

by FutureMan on Mar 27, 2008 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my two cents

I have been an advocate of trading Reyes, but this spring the kid earned a spot in the rotation. Looper should be in the pen. I can see that from 1,350 miles away.

by nybirdfan on Mar 27, 2008 8:32 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Injury

Is there any reason to think that the two converted relievers--Looper and Wellemeier--won't injure themselves trying to be starters again this year?

by bgh on Mar 27, 2008 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree about Looper being in the pen.

Looper proved last year he is worth having as a 4th or 5th starter.

If anybody should go to the pen it is Wellmeyer. He walks to many guys to start in my opinion.

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Mar 27, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

TLR

After I read the first sentence of todays post, the first thing I did was click on the link to the dispatch. After reading that I returned to VEB to see the same paragraphs that caught your attention also caught mine. I find his quotes to be somewhat of a challenge to the front office and i dont particularaly like it. I agree with some of the other posters, I think bringing him back may just clash too much with what Mo (and the majority of the other MLB teams) is trying to accomplish. It just doesnt really make sense to me to hire a "new age" type GM with a manager that makes this statement "But once you get them, the decision how to play them is mine and the coaches"

by UNCDubya on Mar 27, 2008 8:45 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree with Tonys statement ...

the manager should decide how to use them.

But he also needs to play the team the office gives him to play.

I think Tony is hinting at the fact that maybe Mo is not just saying keep him on the team but maybe demanding that he start Reyes.

That is how Tonys statement reads to me.

I mean why say it's up to management how to deploy or use the players that was not even the argument. The argument was as to wether or not Reyes makes the team .

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Mar 27, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I would highlight

a very impartial and calm approach to this Reyes discussion on Futureredbirds, that you can find here.

To be noted the comment from poster Forsch31, that sees Mo's move from a different, interesting perspective.

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on Mar 27, 2008 8:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

For what it's worth...

It's my opinion (based on nothing but my own wild-a**-guesses) that Mo wants Reyes on the club because you can get more for a major-league pitcher in a trade than you can for a AAA pitcher...

Since "youneverknow", it's possible that Reyes will get an opportunity to pitch if or when Looper/Wellemeyer/Thompson has a "stinker" or two; no matter what Tony thinks!

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Mar 27, 2008 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with ...

the Futureredbirds article about the fact that his mechanics have a great deal to do with his lost velocity, messy breaking pitch, and his control issues. I wish I could find the article from 2006 that discussed how Reyes' arm slot was being changed in order to try to get the ball down in the zone. It was in the P-D, but I don't remember if it was Strauss or Gould doing the reporting. Dyar Miller was discussing that as the approach to try to comply with Duncan's requirement that Reyes develop a sinker. The article discussed how Reyes and Miller felt it was impossible for Reyes to get a sinking action on his 2-seamer with his standard arm slot. Since that change, he has gone downhill in both velocity and command. I believe that is what Reyes was referencing when he said this offseason that he had rediscovered his mechanics.

I don't disagree with the reference in that article to Reyes' pitching mechanics leaving him open to future injury. It seems like he puts significant stress on both his elbow and shoulder, and he does look similar to Prior's "perfect mechanics."

by etp_stl on Mar 27, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

bull durham

duncan's philosophy kind of reminds me of crash in bull durham saying that in the show everybody can hit a fastball and that nuke would need to develop a breaking pitch. makes me laugh.

"you wanna take this outside?"
"yeah i wanna take this outside!"

"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy

by FutureMan on Mar 27, 2008 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Politics, pugilistic personalities, performance

LaRussa and Duncan are brilliant coaches in some key respects but their political strategies are very crude and transparent, including public criticism of players they don't want on the roster (which is their boss' decision primarily). It worked when LaRussa publicly stripped down Rolen. Mo had to trade him. Reyes, like Rolen for a long time, has refrained from rebutting TLR and DDuncan's very public critiques. But Reyes will get traded at some point because LaRussa and Duncan have an increasingly untenable relationship with him.

Still, It's good to see Mo take charge at this point and assert his ultimate authority in player assessment and assignment. Keeping Reyes on the team is essential to maximizing his trade value, giving Anthony a chance to demonstrate that he is ready to be successful against big league hitters.

Consider that Reyes in his first ML season he posted a 2.70 ERA (in only 13.1 IP) and in his second season his ERA was very respectable for a rookie, 4.68, in 84.2 IP, until the last day of the season, Oct. 1, 2006, when Reyes was thrown into a game with short rest (which makes most pitchers perform poorly) and on very short notice. Reyes last only one third of an inning, giving up 2 HR's, 5 hits, including 2 HR's, and 4 ER's, to raise his ERA to 5.06. LaRussa and Duncan started him 2 weeks later vs. the Mets only because they had no alternative. After a two-week layoff, Anthony struggled, but he kept the team in the game, giving up 2 ER in 4 IP, on 4 walks and 3 hits, including 2 HR's. Six days later Reyes came through when the stakes were as high as it gets, the World Series; he pitched 8 innings, allowing only 2 runs, on 4 hits, including a HR, and 1 walk, striking out 4.

His reward in 2007 was to be forced to conform to a style of pitching that did not fit him, versus major league hitters rather than AAA hitters. Yes, he did need to improve, of course, especially to get a better out pitch. But, as LaRussa said two days ago, Anthony is still a developing pitcher who should have still been at AAA to allow him more time to develop and refine his approach, like Wainwright got. It isn't Reyes' fault that Jocketty didn't have enough decent starters to allow Reyes that developmental opportunity. It would have been better to have traded him before the 2007 began, when Anthony's stock was at it's highest.

It will be very interesting to see how LaRussa and Duncan handle Reyes in the next month. If they handle him in a way that interferes with his success, as they did on October 1, 2006, and if they continue to criticize him publicly, they will just make it more difficult for Mo to trade him for good value. That would be politically stupid and contrary to the interests of the organization, which is finally using a rational, strategic approach to getting the greatest return on its young talent. It's not a question of scouting vs. stats, which would just flip the old Jocketty formula around. Mo's way is blending scouting and statistical analysis into the most powerful kind of analysis, which is clearly the most effective approach.

Mo seems inclined to take a stand that he will no longer discard players without receiving good value in return, as, for example, when Ray King was dumped, after LaRussa was annoyed by his public complaints about not getting playing time - which King truly had not earned at that point. Lefthanded relief pitchers were a valuable commidity, though. If LaRussa hadn't been so public and strident in his criticism of King, making it obvious to other GM's that the Cardinals were in the weak position of needing to get rid of King, maybe the Cardinals would have gotten more than Larry Bigbie and Aaron Miles....

by CardsWin on Mar 27, 2008 9:09 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Ray King was terrible at that point

it's amazing they got two usable player for him.

Signatures are for Communists.

by JI on Mar 27, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

there are some good moves

on the roster though. Agreeing with 3bagger... Barton is in. That makes me happy. I also think that (possibly out of necesity) Thompson as a starter could be a positive. He was in TLRs doghouse for a while, but I have wanted to see what he can do as a starter.

I can see two sides to the Reyes saga. I think that he probably did not adhere 100% to the coachings of ladunc and being oldschool that did not sit well with them (which is how it should be in many cases)... He has had a lot of opportunities and has not flourished, but crashed and burned. On the other side, this is the year that you NEED to see what he can do, and what is the main downside if the cardinals play him.

Some good, some bad news about the 25.... I still think that TLR is starting to lose it though (Rolen, Kenedy, Reyes bashings...).

What happened to our team?

by und3rtovv on Mar 27, 2008 9:11 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

TLR/Joe Strauss on 1380 yesterday..

Very interesting radio yesterday evening, as TLR denied that a decision had been made and basically chastised Strauss for printing the initial article about Reyes getting sent down.

Bernie then put Strauss on afterward and he confirmed that there is a disconnect between the front office and the managerial/coaching staff. He said something to the effect of "well its obvious that the front office wants Reyes on the roster despite Tony/Duncan's preference to send him down."

I just don't understand how Todd freakin' Wellenmeyer beats him out for a spot, what with his 11BB/10K's in spring training.

by silent_bob on Mar 27, 2008 9:15 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Remember

if Reyes gets sent down, Kelvim Jimenez also beat him out and Jimenez is beyond terrible -- much worse than Wellemeyer who absolutely cannot consistently throw strikes. At least Reyes can do that.

by chuckb on Mar 27, 2008 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hey bob

LOVE your picture; any cards fan should be able to simply glance at that and KNOW exactly what it is

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Mar 27, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah...

I've had that picture as my screen saver for a Long time now.....ahhhh.....what a moment that was..

by Timbo02 on Mar 27, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

houstoncardinal's picture

is pretty friggin' great too.

Personally, I think we got hosed on that call.

by TurdFerguson on Mar 27, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i have it too!

mine's just cut off it bit. it kinda looks cool like that though.

by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 27, 2008 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno about y'all

but THESE couple of paragraphs stood out for me:

'Keeping Reyes would come at the expense of Kelvin Jimenez, who threw two scoreless innings in Wednesday's 8-2 win. Duncan is impressed with Jimenez's added maturity this spring.

"Jimenez has grown up a lot since last year. That's why we've got a tough call," La Russa said.'

Yipe? Can we all join hands and say that Anthony Reyes is probably not worse than Kelvin Jimenez?

"Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." --Churchill

by lordsummer on Mar 27, 2008 9:17 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

A good curveball

is the most lethal weapon in a pitchers arsonal. Sandy Koufax would have been just another hard thrower if he had not developed a great 12 to 6 curve. He was wilder than Wellemyer and the Dodgers almost gave up on him before he developed the curve.

Kofax was the only pitcher I have ever seen that would not waste a pitch if he got ahead 2 and 0 in the count. He would come right back with that wicked curve that he could throw for a strike every time or a fast ball right down the middle. Usually the hitter was frozen either way.
Koufax credited Ron Perinowski with teaching him the curve when they were both pitchers with LA. and Perinowski went on later to be a great pitching coach for many years with the Dodgers. In his years as coach with the Dodgers he helped all young pitchers develop good curves and the they always had good pitching.
Along with Johnny Sain, they are probably the best two pitching coaches ever and Sain had a great curve and taught it. Far superior to Dave Duncan. What pitch has Duncan ever taught anybody.
The moral of the story being, for a pitching coach hire somebody with the art of teaching how to throw a good curveball

by ridgesee on Mar 27, 2008 9:29 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I thought...

Duncan taught Dave Stewart the fork ball. Not defending, just saying.

[Homer shows Bart "Wonderbat".]
Bart: Wow. How many home runs you gonna hit with that thing?
Homer: Let's see... We play thirty games. Ten at-bats a game. Mm...three thousand.

by boog on Mar 27, 2008 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

To add

What would Wainwright be without his great curve. What would Morris have been without his curve ..or Kyle.

by ridgesee on Mar 27, 2008 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can't argue

Duncan might have learned a good Fork ball throwing out runners at 2nd or on tosses back to the pitcher. Don't know..could have.

by ridgesee on Mar 27, 2008 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That argument...

...Only holds water if the curveball is the only effective offspeed pitch in existence. It isn't. Would you suggest telling Randy Johnson or Jake Peavy to throw overhand curveballs instead of their wicked nasty sliders? Would you suggest telling Johan Santana to ditch that stupid changeup for a deuce? Fausto Carmona, get rid of that sinker/splitter combo for a big ole' Uncle Charlie!

I'm not trying to start a cyber-fight or anything, but hiring a pitching coach just b/c he can teach curveballs is a bit short-sighted in my book.
Leo Mazzone never once taught a curveball, he just told his guys to throw a quality breaking ball, and getting all up in a huff about which kind it was was ultimately useless.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Mar 27, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I didn't say

get rid of anything, nor did I say that there wasn't other great pitches. I just said that nothing is more lethal than a good 12 to 6 curve and i stick to it. Also a hard slider is hard on the arm. (so the experts say) but you are right, it is a great pitch and Gibson lived with it. I have heard him say a couple of times in interviews that the slider was his strike out pitch. Not the fastball as most people thought.

by ridgesee on Mar 27, 2008 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Curve Ball decline throughout MLB?

I haven't watched very many other teams, but perhaps the curveball has deminished all together, not just with the Cards. I might be blowing smoke, I don't have the stats to back it up.... just guessing.

I'm guessing the wear and tear of throwing the curve vs. other pitches has led to the decline. Perhaps a medical blogger can shed some light on phyisical strain of throwing the curve. A local sports talk show hosts advocates not letting kids under the age of 14 throw curve balls because of the damage it does to the arm over a period of time.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 27, 2008 9:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The good

medium speed 12 to six curve is not hard on the arm. It is the slider that recks havoc. This is not from me. I don't know. I can't throw shit. It's what I have heard Bob Gibson, Johnny Sain and others say.

by ridgesee on Mar 27, 2008 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

gibby

isnt it said he still cant totally straighten his right arm, and says it is because of the slider?

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Mar 27, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There are many many

people, including doctors and coaches, who say young kids shouldn't throw the curve.

by sdrone on Mar 27, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have heard Gibson

make that statement personally, and no, Kids should not be trying any kind of breaking ball. Although in Little League WS games, you do see some soft benders and I don't think that is good.
A slider is just a faster, sharper breaking curve and common sense tells me that it puts more snap on the elbow than the old 12 to 6 bender. Somebody mentioned earlier that the curve had almost disappeared and that is true for a time.
In fact when Kyle and Morris and some others started bringing it back about 5 years ago, they had trouble getting umpires to call it but i have noticed now that umpires call it frequently now, even when it looks sometimes high to me. Wainwright gets good calls on it. I can remember when the overhand curve (12 to 6) was called a drop, and it was quite popular in the majors.

by ridgesee on Mar 27, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My son's doctor and pitching instructor both agree with that statement.

He went through a lot of practice drills without ever throwing a ball starting when he was 15 1/2. He was not taught the pitch until he was 16. It was, and is, still his best pitch. But until he was 16 all he threw was a fastball and a change up. He's still going strong at 20 yeears old without ever having arm or shoulder problems.

And despite good coaching, and exemplary work habits, he cannot throw a 2 seamer. "The ball just doesn't feel right in my hand, Mom." But then, most of his teammates can't throw a quality curve either......

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 27, 2008 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great discussion of Reyes

That really is the argument. I'm kind of tired of arguing FOR Reyes b/c it implies that I'm in denial as to how he's performed once he's been here. I'm not but it really is about going w/ young guys who MIGHT do something vs. going w/ "proven" vets. Now, Thompson's no old fogey but you do know what to expect from him and it's not good. It's probably better than Reyes' worst case scenario but, of course, much worse than Reyes' best case scenario.

At this point in the team's development, they need to be promoting and playing those whose best case scenarios are the best -- when they're ready, of course. It does us absolutely no good to run Thompson and Wellemeyer out there every 5 days. They're replacement level and provide nothing other than an improvement over the possibility of Reyes performing BELOW replacement level. If he does (Reyes) -- who cares? We lose 8-4 rather than 6-4 or, at worst, finish w/ 75 losses instead of 77. The best case scenario, OTOH, is that we find out we have a good, young pitcher we can keep or trade for something of value. The upside of pitching Reyes is MUCH greater than the downside. The same, BTW, applies to Ryan, Barton and other young players as they come up through the system. This same argument, obviously, applies to the Barton vs. Gonzalez situations as well.

by chuckb on Mar 27, 2008 9:43 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I meant

75 wins instead of 77, not 75 losses

by chuckb on Mar 27, 2008 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Houston

I think the Reyes debate gets amped up definitely based on how he was projected to be the best arm in the Cardinals system. Now for various reasons he has not progressed like a top arm in the system for sure. He has progressed but I think the high billing has hurt him obviously. Look at Brad Thompson he has progressed fairly well but he is seen as progressing better due to the fact he was not as highly touted.

Now I don't necessariily agree that you just keep sticking with a guy just because he has more upside. I believe good organiztions know when a guy has his best trade value and gets rid of him because they see the hand writing on the wall. Now I think Duncan believes Reyes can be a good pitcher but he is just progressing slowly. Now the question is how many starts does a guy need/deserve before you look at other options. AR has had 37 MLB starts which is a good amount and leads me to believe he has been given a lot of opportunity. Now I don't focus on this two "career games" because all pitchers at the MLB level have ability, it comes down to consistently pitching with ability and AR has failed to be consistent.

I know it is sexy now to to talk about "young players", but at somepoint you have to look at results because guys are prospects for only so long. I know Brad Thompson's best is not going to be AR's best, but Thompson may be just average enough that he provides more consistency than AR. Besides I feel good for Brad as he has been bashed around by TLR and Dunc a bunch and has bee up and down between Memphis and STL more than AR. I like that Brad seems to be putting it together despite really never getting a true chance to "compete" for a starting spot.

The good organizations know when to cut ties and realize that guys are not "prospects" forever.

I hope AR gets his chance and just domintes but he is just so up and down it's hard to predict if 25 more starts really will tell us anything more.

by ICbirdfan on Mar 27, 2008 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's what they can't defend

I guess they can rely on scouting, or on their experience, or on observations that us non-experts supposedly can't really refute, or "intangibles" to justify their statements that Reyes isn't a major league-ready starting pitcher. I disagree with them, but they at least have a side in the argument.

Given that they've decided that Reyes' primary value to the team is as trade bait , how can they defend their contiued disparagement of his abilities in the media? What kind of negotiating strategy is that? From ads in the Penny Saver to transactions involving multinational corporations, who has ever heard of a party beginning negotiations for a commodity it wants to sell by explaining why the commodity isn't as good as it seems?

by tdawg on Mar 27, 2008 10:53 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

On general principles, I agree with you,

but I think the negative comments, while certainly not helping the situation, may not be as damaging as we think because of the special characteristics of the baseball bidness. It is very hard to "hide" anything about these commodities (players). Other teams and scouts and stats analysts have lots of information about AR, and their own experts can watch him pitch anytime they want ... enough to be able to form their own opinions of his worth. Now, when it comes to bargaining between Moz and some other GM, the internal bickering might prompt the other GM to lowball us with a trade offer. But ultimately, the other GMs have to look at what value AR will have to them, and if Moz sticks to his guns he can probably get a pretty fair return on a trade.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 27, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree

I never understood the stop talking bad about the guy. Yeah it looks bad but it does not diminish value. Mo is the one who will decide if the package offered is good or not.

There are scouts at every game and like RedbirdFreak said teams know everything they need to about AR. About the only thing they probably don't know is how healthy is he.

by ICbirdfan on Mar 27, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

My scout friend assures me it DOES hurt. He says you NEVER publicly disparge a player.

It does hurt the value when other teams know you don't want that player. They change the offer accordingly.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 27, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I agree with you

I agree with you that it does not help, but I also disagree to the extent some try to say it hurts trade value.

Come on, I don't care if TLR says Reyes is complete garbage teams have scouts at every game so it's not like it's 1930 anymore and you might be able to pull a fast one on a team by talking good about a player.

I think it does not make things better but teams know what they see in players and they could care less if one regime says a few "negative" things. I put "negative" in quotes becaue some stuff said about AR was not really negative.

It's obviously an emotional topic.

by ICbirdfan on Mar 27, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I dunno

What's "emotional" about "It's always bad business to publicly run down your own assets in the marketplace when you are interested getting maximum value for them?"

Seems pretty cut and dry to me.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 27, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is true

and it seems to be only recently that certain mgrs. and coaches have started this crap. I'm talking about direct quotes to the press about players. Even a couple of years ago when that La Russa and Duncan were frustrated and had about had it with Marquiz, I don't remember any public "quotables" at all about him. Just stuff that the press was surmising from certain coy inferences. In fact I don't remember anytime in the past. timess change though...something new i guess.

by ridgesee on Mar 27, 2008 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I remember ...

LaRussa and Duncan going ballistic to the media because Brett Tomko had the audacity to say that an old buddy of his helped him correct his mechanics. That was before Marquis.

by etp_stl on Mar 27, 2008 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That post is not particularly about you know who. You are assuming that, I guess.

I don't think any player should ever be spoken of negatively in the press. It is, plain and simple bad for business. No other way to say it.

Even the Cubs know this. Marquis riled Lou up, Lou shouted back, they both met in Mr. Hendry's office the next day. Lou apologized, Marquis clarified, and he made their starting rotation. If the Cubs know that, why don't the Cardinals?

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 27, 2008 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm!

you and this scout friend seem to be talking a lot lately, Jills. Fill us in on all that good stuff yaw'll talk about. This place needs some excitement.

by ridgesee on Mar 27, 2008 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's how it doesn't help. The team that is interested in the player on the

"outs" KNOWS that the player is on the outs. They know he's got to go. They have every reason to make minimal offer, and stick to it. They expect you to cry uncle.

The Cardinals were lucky they were able to move Rolen for Glaus-in that instance it worked for both teams because Toronto wasn't all that excited to keep him around. So you swap an injury prone player for an injury prone player.........I don't see anywhere else Rolen would have been moved to... Then we have a whole lot of other things to discuss, wouldn't we?

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 27, 2008 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see your point

It's not as if the other teams have no information about Reyes other than what they read on stltoday.com.

On the other hand, what they do lack is the information on what it's like to work with/coach Reyes -- and that's where LaDuncan's comments can really hurt.

Let's put it this way: it can't help his trade value?

by tdawg on Mar 27, 2008 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really interesting

I accidentally closed that article before finishing it, and it looks like it is no longer available on STLtoday.com.

by SheriffBlalock on Mar 27, 2008 11:05 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Same for me Sheriff.

I keep getting the message that the article has been removed from the server..hmm.....

by Timbo02 on Mar 27, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's no conspiracy

It's probably just a bad link due to some webmaster monkeying with the article ID/URL. The article is still currently the lead story in the Sports section:

http://www.stltoday.com/sports

That'll eventually change within several hours when it's supplanted by another article, however...so don't freak out when it eventually does.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 27, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think if you look back at 2006

my anecdotal evidence has Mulder throwing a lot of curveballs to compensate for his splitter no longer having the mph and control it needed.

It'll be interesting to see if he will trust that surgically repaired arm enough to throw alot of curveballs again.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 27, 2008 11:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

lack of curveball

the scary thing about that chart showing the "0 percent" curve balls thrown by Thompson/Looper (over both of whom I'd choose Reyes for the rotation( is that neither of these guys really has much of a fastball, especially Thompson.

The lack of stuff among some of the Cardinals' starters the last year or two has been truly frightening.

That's one reason why I prefer Reyes, and even Wellemeyer, to Thompson/Looper is that they can make major league hitters miss with their stuff.

Thompson and Looper have to get by with location and guile, and neither of them have the skills of a Greg Maddux to pull that off.

by salvomania on Mar 27, 2008 11:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I would have sworn

Looper had a good fastball- I remember him hitting 93-94 pretty regularly. But looking at fangraphs, it says he averaged 89.1 with his fastball (vs averaging 92.5 as a reliever in '06), so I guess the transition to starter really hurt him in that area.

Anyone know what SF and CT are? Sinking fastball maybe? and ... ?

Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado

by SleepyCA on Mar 27, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

SF & CT

SF could be split finger??

CT could be Cutter?

by ICbirdfan on Mar 27, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

P-D

The P-D is reporting the Reyes will make the opening day roster. Is there something else I don't know that makes it seem like it's not a done deal?

by saladdays on Mar 27, 2008 11:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

KSDK last night

Last night Reny's discussion said "I received some text messages from Mo[edited for easy of spelling] saying that it was not a done deal" or something to that effect.

by StLHugo on Mar 27, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

could it be

that the coaches recognize that Reyes has something to overcome in his mental approach, and they would rather it seemed to be the need to gain their approval, than, lets say a confidents or self-esteme issue that they recognize form long experience, can injure a young player beyond repair? A "for his own good scenario"? maybe?

Westcoastbirdwatcher

by westcoastbirdwatcher on Mar 27, 2008 11:47 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm going to take 40% of your paycheck

it's for your own good. You'll thank me later.

Two of the most hated 'reason' in human life.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 27, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Love you guys

Watching Tony coach for the first time in 15 years, I am taken by the depth of his concentration. He is about something,,,,,

Westcoastbirdwatcher

by westcoastbirdwatcher on Mar 27, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's look at the numbers

Larry gives us lots of numbers. How about we compare the careers of the three pitchers in question?

Reyes 206 IP 81 OPS+
Wellemeyer 242 IP 90 OPS+
Thompson 241 IP 109 OPS+

Which of these three guys has done the worst? Which one is the "replacement level" pitcher?

Look, I don't know whether Anthony Reyes is a major league pitcher or not. The 2007 version threw far too many meatballs that got killed, run support or not.

I think Reyes is mostly an issue of talent judgment as opposed to being a barometer of anything else.

How can Reyes be the test case for the Cards getting younger? The alternative is Jiminez, who is 27 versus Reyes being 26? Thompson, who is getting the starting job, is actually younger than Reyes; the #1 starter is only 1+ month older than Reyes.

The Cards also added 23 y/o McClelland (sp?) instead of older alternatives.

Their OF is full of relatively inexperienced MLers, with Duncan, who came up for good in mid-2006, having the most experience.

I think it comes down to that Reyes has yet to demonstrate at the ML level that he was consistently the same pitcher as he was in the minors. He wouldn't be the first pitcher that happened to.

Dave

by SydneyDave on Mar 27, 2008 11:54 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not a fair comparison

You need to split it out to innings of games started, not total innings. Reyes hasn't thrown a single relief inning in the big leagues, but Wellemeyer and Thompson have thrown plenty of relief innings, and have rarely been left out there during starts to get pummelled because the bullpen needs to be rested during a blowout. All of that has happened to Anthony Reyes.

Another thing to be mindful of: Thompson and Wellemeyer are pretty good for the first two-and-a-half to three innings. Once guys start seeing them a second time though, they start getting shelled and their walk rate goes up. They don't have good enough stuff to get hitters out once those hitters get a look at them on any given night. To me, that makes them long relievers or setup pitchers -- similar to the transition that Ryan Franklin made last year.

Reyes, on the other hand, is usually pretty good in innings 3-6 of his starts, but struggles in the first three innings to get settled down. There have been many other pitchers with this problem, including two HOF type pitchers, Tom Glavine and Nolan Ryan. I'm not saying the Reyes is either of those guys, but pitchers who tend to be more effective the second and third times through a lineup project much better as starters than those who struggle after being seen.

Reyes' biggest problem seems to be consistency, which is something that he can work on at Memphis if he doesn't make the club initially. I would rather he's the top starter at Memphis than the #5 starter for the big club to start the season, because he'll get more starts at the AAA level than he would at the MLB level. That's just my own personal opinion.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 27, 2008 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

some of this isn't accurate

First off, Reyes has 10.1 innings in relief in the big leagues (6.97 ERA). He didn't throw in relief in '06, but he did in '05 (where he was decent in 3 appearances, 7IP) and again in '07, where he was awful- awful enough in two relief appearances (3.1IP) to raise his ERA for the year by a third of a point. Yikes.

Second, Thompson has been much better as a starter than as a reliever. He's also been yanked back and forth between the rotation, AAA, and the bullpen so often that I don't know how he's survived it. I am really impressed that he put up the numbers he did last year, especially if you consider that he once went 16 days between appearances (and, predictably, got knocked out early). he also started 2 games on 2 days rest and three more on 3 days rest last year, and was left in to take one for the team at least once, against the royals, where he didn't have anything and was left in to give up 8 runs. I don't really remember that kind of thing happening to AR.

AR was left in to try to pitch out of jams a few times, which led to things like Willingham's HR, but he wasn't thrown to the wolves the way Thompson was on occasion. Reyes just seemed to be because he failed so often, almost every time, in crisis situations (it seems); he'd go 2.2 good innings, then give up a grand slam, then throw 2 more good innings and give up another run in the 6th. That's not "saving the bullpen", it's "not performing up to snuff".

You also have to keep in mind the fact that Wellemeyer and Thompson were both conditioned to be relievers, not starters, and that has to affect how they'll feel in that 50+ pitch count situation against the heart of the order the second time around.

Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado

by SleepyCA on Mar 27, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thompson has as much a gripe as Reyes overall

I agree with you that Thompson has been abused every bit as much as Reyes. Reyes perhaps more mentally. But Thompson has been physically. He's the "take one for the team" guy.

I'm pretty ambivalent to the whole debate. I can appreciate a lot of points of view on this one. If you say Reyes should be given the starts, I'd tend to agree with that even. But it's all probably short term anyway. Whatever they decide, there's a decision of much greater importance waiting on the horizon as soon as somebody comes back from injury.

But let's not forget that Thompson had to handle his share of obstacles too. His stuff may not be as good, but there are times starters can survive on marginal stuff. There are also times where people with superior stuff bomb out.

The discussion is good, but if you take emotion out of it, the only thing that is clear is that nothing is clear. There are decent arguments for several different courses of action. It's a fairly tough decision.

by Merry CRasmus on Mar 27, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey, think about that for a minute

On a wishful note, maybe "but struggles in the first three innings to get settled down" could be helped by pitching for a bit from the bullpen. He can learn to go out there and attack right from the get-go.

by sdrone on Mar 27, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reyes, Iraq, the Bullpen, and the Surge

Whenever Reyes is a topic here I always tend to ignore the debates. To me it just seems like we all have our beliefs and then we argue to justify them. Just like debates over the war in Iraq.

I also realized the A. Reyes is a lot like the Iraq war - booming early success (First 60 days = those 3 starts in Milwaukee, KC, and the 1-hitter in Chicago), then some failures with one bright success (capturing Saddam = WS Game 1). This is followed with the turmoil of 2007, terrible results, and lots of arguing (2007=2007).

Now TLR could be Bush or the Democrats, on one hand we have a case of failed strategy (2-seam = Don Rumsfeld) and on the otherhand he wants to give up on AR (Send to Minors = Withdrawal). Reyes is definitely Iraq (His Head= Provisional Government).

Whatever the case, I'm just hoping Mozeliak is McCain and that the push for the bullpen is what Reyes needs to hone his stuff. Look he has a huge 1st inning and RISP problem - and we haven't found a silver bullet in his pitching data to indicate why. I think it is psychological and maybe being a long reliever, coming in when the game is no longer close, is what he needs to fine tune his stuff at the ML level.

Not to say the surge is a success, but it is an improvement, and Reyes is worth the chance.

you can't sneak the sun past the rooster

by enoscountry on Mar 27, 2008 12:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Great analogy...

comparing Iraq and Reyes. Just as polarizing on these boards as Iraq is on political boards. I, too, am wearying of both debates. But in both situations, not taking sides isn't a solution.

I agree - I hope Mozeliak is McCain.

by blehmann on Mar 27, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reyes is the Iraq War

Also love the analogy. I think LaRussa is Donald "my way or the highway" Rumsfeld. MO is Gen. Patreaus. He's trying to work a "new and improved" strategy to fix this mess and make nice with both sides in Congress. D. Duncan is Dick Cheney. He just wants to drop a thermal nuclear weapon and be done with the whole mess.

----------------
http://www.jjraymond.com

by jjray on Mar 27, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, I can't help it any longer.

This is funny, darkly humorous stuff. But please everyone remember that Mr. Reyes himself didn't ask for this dust up. He rarely has anything to say about anything to anyone. I imagine it's not a comfortable spot to be in.......

It's like quitting smoking. Every once in awhile you sneak one. I think it's out of my system now. I will go back to my original pledge. Scouts honor.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 27, 2008 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's going to be hard Jillsinmo

cause Reyes is going to continue to be a topic on this site for a long time. It has just got to happen. If he succeeds there will be a lot of "I told you so's" and if he fails there will be a lot of "I told you so's". This winter's daily comments on Aaron Miles will pale in comparison to the Reyes dilemma....But I, like you will try to keep a lid on it.

by ridgesee on Mar 27, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, if it turns into an "I told you so" or a "Sorry, you were right" I may

have to address everything again. That ain"t now.....

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 28, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mike and John

made that DP sound like a #1 Web Gem for sure.

by cardsgirl95 on Mar 27, 2008 1:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, sounds like it...

Shannon and Rooney both said this was the best infield play they've seen this Spring. 6-4-3 Izturis to Kennedy to Pujols. Izturis made an "unbelievable" play and got it to Kennedy immediately. Hopefully we can see some replays tonight on the news...

by blehmann on Mar 27, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

From Derrick Goold in Bird Land

Cesar Izturis’ defense figures to be a polarizing issue for the coming season. Only Albert Pujols’ elbow has been dissected more this spring. (Perhaps a poor choice of verbs, that.) Well, having just heard from the Skillet Faction in a previous blog comment, here’s one for the Golden Faction:

Just a few innings ago Marlins’ outfielder Josh Willingham singled off Kyle Lohse. The next batter, reanimated Jorge Cantu, scalded a grounder up the middle. That is when …

*

Izturis skedaddled to his left …
*

Dove …
*

Extended …
*

Gloved the ball behind second base …
*

From his back, he underhand flipped it to Adam Kennedy at second …
*

Watched as Kennedy spun a double play.

Judging Izturis’ defense out of a box score, especially an early-March box score, is a mistake. His hesistance at short has vanished. The new guy can play the field.

by CardsWin on Mar 27, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

can someone please look up

how "skedaddling" ranks on the "scrap + slap" scale?

Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado

by SleepyCA on Mar 27, 2008 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How is it physically possible

to "underhand flip" a ball from your back? I'm trying to imagine it and it's not happening.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Mar 27, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I gotta know ...

is anybody still enjoying the third consecutive day of rehashing why Reyes should or shouldn't be on the major league roster? Haven't we hashed all of the points:

1) Doesn't pitch well with runners on
2) Doesn't have "the stuff" to be a major leaguer
3) Does have "the stuff," but TLR/Dunc hate him
4) Does have "the stuff," but no run support
5) Better than Looper/Wellemeyer/Thompson etc.
6) Shouldn't run him down if you're going to trade him

Facts have been provided to prove that Wellemeyer and Thompson both pitched better last year. None of them are ever going to be better than a #4 starter or a long reliever.

Is there anything new that could actually make continuing this debate worthwhile?

by etp_stl on Mar 27, 2008 1:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The debate about his talent isn't important

if you'll look, the debate isn't about the merits of Reyes anymore, it is about the reasoning by the coaching staff and the powerplay going on in the front offices.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 27, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree ...

that is what the post was started as. In several instances, myself included, we have been dragged back into a debate on his talent. I was hoping we could focus the debate back on the topic at hand, as well. The powerplay between the coaching staff and the upper management is indeed intriguing. It is the first time in 12 years that I can remember LaRussa not being catered to completely. It will be extremely interesting to see how this plays out. As referenced by CardsWin, in the past several years disagreeing with TLR/Dunc has gotten a player shipped out of town for little returning value. Now, Mo seems to be backing the player, at least long enough to get him traded for value. I'm glad to see a little dissention in the ranks. It might make for some interesting drama.

by etp_stl on Mar 27, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And yet you seem to want to continue to engage in it!

Who pitched better last year isn't necessarily relevant to who will pitch better this year and, as many have pointed out, there is value in truly finding out if Reyes, once a top prospect, can ever become a contributing major league pitcher. There is little value in having Wellemeyer or Thompson set foot on the mound.

by chuckb on Mar 27, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Sorry, ...

I know it sounded that way with my closing statement. I provided the outting-by-outting evidence of how the three performed last year in the post two days ago. That, along with several other posts over the last three days, was the information to which I was alluding. I didn't mean it to sound as though I were implying that somehow I believed last year's performance was an indicator of this year's potential performance.

I also agree that this year should be about identifying what assets the team has, and also in presenting those assets the team sees as potential trade bait. I think both reasons are excellent points for why Reyes should be in the starting lineup, and to return to the original topic, it is probably why Mo put his foot down on putting him on the 25 man roster. I think starting Thompson has value (young guy with some trade potential), but I agree that Wellemeyer is just a long reliever.

by etp_stl on Mar 27, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kyle Lohse

est en fuego heute.

Three strikeouts after two innings makes me a happy fella. Way to go Mo for signing this dude.

by liam on Mar 27, 2008 1:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Glaus caught in run-down

Glaus walked to get on first, then got a little too eager on a hit-and-run with Molina batting. VandenHurk stepped off the mound, ran right to Glaus, tagged him out. Sounds like a base-running boner by Troy.

If you can't be fast, you gotta be smart.

by blehmann on Mar 27, 2008 1:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm really liking the pitcher in the 8th spot

If this really succeeds, any guess which team will follow first? My vote is the Pirates, they're so bad they'll try anything.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 27, 2008 2:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Brewers...

but they are already doing it supposedly....so do they count?

by StLHugo on Mar 27, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's see what happens on the 31st

If they do, it does. Surprised others may be already following suit. I'd figure it would take a month or two. Guess I got my blinders on.... can only see Cardinals.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 27, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kendall

They were talking about it because they wanted to hide Kendall in the 9th spot more than anything.

by StLHugo on Mar 27, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Decent hitter for a catcher

Not a good year last year, but still pretty good to waste at the 7th or 8th spot.

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 27, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kendall 9th

Their reasoning was totally different from the typical arguments for batting the pitcher 8th (separating your best and worst batters in the lineup, double leadoff in later innings, getting a pinch hitter in an AB earlier) and all to do with Kendall's tendency to hit groundballs. They figured the pitcher could bunt any runners to second and keep Kendall from GingIDP too much. Good idea, bad rationale if you ask me.

by liam on Mar 27, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reyes a Relief? Maybe not

So rather than be productive at work I decided to look at which innings Reyes gave up runs in. Its not looking too rosie for the relief role. Maybe Dunc is right about needing a long warm up???

In 2007 he gave up a total of 77 runs, of which, 72 were earned. Of those 72 earned, he gave up a whopping 26 in the first inning he pitched, which accounts for 35% of his total. If you expect an even distribution by inning, he should have only given up 14 in the first inning.

As an FYI - he did pitch in 2 games as a reliever last year totaling 3.1 innings and giving up 6 earned.

I'd put in the table I made showing the complete breakdown but I'm a newbie and can't figure out how.

by birdo rojo on Mar 27, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Reyes

The "argument" is really all about upside.

With Looper, you know what you're going to get: an ERA between 4.50 and 5.00, with very few Ks. basically lets the batters hit it and hopes it doesn't go very far.

Thompson, same thing, but even less of a fastball, even fewer Ks, also gets by on "location" and "being crafty." That is what he is.

Neither of these guys will give you more than that, because that's what they are based on (a) what their potential always suggested and (b) what their performance has shown.

But with Reyes, there is the CHANCE that he could be something much better than either of those two, based on (a) what his potential has suggested and (b) what SOME of his performances (1-hitter vs. Sox, Game 1 WS win, etc.) have shown.

Yes, he's also been awful much of the time, and inconsistent all of the time, but that often goes with the territory when DEVELOPING a young pitcher. Danny Haren got knocked around quite a bit during both his cup of coffee and his first semi-full year in the bigs.

The point is (as many have stated) that when you have the opportunity (say, during a "rebuilding year") to find out what you have going forward with some of your youngsters it's probably better to do so than to give those same opportunities to players who may prove to be no worse but who also aren't very good to begin with, when there's a chance the youngster (and I know Brad is a month younger then Reyes) could be significantly better.

by salvomania on Mar 27, 2008 2:28 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Okay, but...

Opportunity isn't going to give Reyes controll, it isn't going to fix his mechanics, and it isn't going to give him a go-to "out" pitch.

As you say, Thompson and Looper are what they are, Reyes has yet to reach his potential, which is exactly why AAA is a good place for him to sort things out. I like Reyes, and I think Memphis is a much better place for the kid to try to fix multiple problems than the bullpen, or even the rotation in STL.

by Martini Agonistes on Mar 27, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lb

Your link about the intervention by the front office doesnt work...

"when we say strength we mean kettlebell,when we say kettlebell we mean strength"

by Calhoun on Mar 27, 2008 2:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I could get used to this

We keep winning....is this some cruel joke? A way to make this season harder by raising my expectations? What ever it is, please keep doing it. I could get used to the Cards winning.

by StLHugo on Mar 27, 2008 3:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

winning

yeah, i'm starting to get cautiously optimisic.

....my quick smells like french toast...

by mstreeter06 on Mar 27, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Barton

Is Barton out for a few days because of the hit he took yesterday, or what? I noticed he didn't play today, but I also read in Goold's blog that he was okay. Anyone know if he's playing tomorrow in Springfield?

by blehmann on Mar 27, 2008 3:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

And that's a wiener ... 12 of 14 ... End up 17-10-2 ...

Another great game by Lohse ... what a pick up ... I'd have to say ... this is the best Spring training I can remember ... lot's of questions answered (lead-off, outfield, middle infield, for the most part, Phase 1 starting rotation; though of course, their is a bit of controversy there, ya think?) ...

The bullpen looks as effective as ever ... what a surprise and another good outing by McClellan ... and the offense is the biggest news of all ... averaging nearly 6 runs a game ... the kids (Ankiel, Ludwick, Schumaker, Barton) seem ready ... should be fun to watch ...

Spring training is Spring training ... all you can really hope for is to finish it above .500, feel like your starters primed and ready ... and that the club feels good about itself ... I think the Cards definately accomplished all of that ...

Here's hoping it carries forward to Monday and beyond ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 27, 2008 3:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Lohse?

Any indication as to why Lohse came out after five? He seems sharp, and I thought he was scheduled to pitch six? The injury bug has me a little skiddish......

by cdb on Mar 27, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure ...

I was wondering the same thing ... I thought at the time that Tony just didn't want to bat him in the fifth with runners in scoring position ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 27, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wonder if we'll get to read Duncan bash him

b/c the wind was blowing in or b/c he was facing the Marlins or something like that! Doubt it!

by chuckb on Mar 27, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FORSCH31

Go to Futureredbirds and see what FORSCH31 says.

I would say he has the absolute best take on the whole Reyes situation and Duncan has not BASHED Reyes more than anyother pitcher for gods sake.

I should find all the times they got all over Brad Thompson last season and show all of you conspiricy theory people. Someone broke down a Duncan quote somewhere and it proved he was not bashing Reyes.

by ICbirdfan on Mar 27, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, ...

EvilFrog broke down multiple LaRussa quotes that indicated he was objectively breaking down Reyes' last performance. Duncan's comments, while not directly derogatory, have been more pessimistic about how Reyes has performed this spring.

by etp_stl on Mar 27, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It could be worse....

The Reds had Bailey make his last spring training start on Monday on three days rest.

Dusty being Dusty.

by liam on Mar 27, 2008 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No way you have to be making that up [/joke]

That's fucking unbelievable. Is he serious. Really? What is wrong with that man and why was he hired again.

With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch

by joker24 on Mar 27, 2008 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great Reference

lboros, just noticed the title of the post, great reference to great Arlington, VA steak house.

Jimmy steps in to lead off the bottom half of the inning... with nobody on base... It could happen... just not tonight.

by Hollywood15 on Mar 27, 2008 5:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ray's

yeah i just noticed that too. fantastic steakhouse, and about a two minute walk from my place.

by Pujols Shot Ya on Mar 28, 2008 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone else notice that Braden Looper is being protected?

Also staying back in Florida when the team leaves are the usual suspects — rehabbing pitchers galore, like Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, Matt Clement, etc., etc. — and Braden Looper. The righthander will make his next appearance down here Sunday, La Russa said. He’ll possibly pitch in a minor-league scrimmage.

Braden Looper and his 8.00 ERA, his nearly 1:1 K:BB rate won't have to worry about facing the Springfield lineup. He'll stay in Florida to face some lower level minor league players.

He hasn't pitched in a week. It would only add more fuel to the fire if Braden went out there against the Springfield team on Sunday and got shelled.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 27, 2008 6:33 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

This preserves retroactive DL

I brought this up in one of the fan posts, where I speculated that the team might tell Looper he is hurt and put him on the DL. If he played in Springfield they could not retroactively DL him but if they keep him in FL they can. If this keeps Loop out of the lineup It wouldn't bother me.

Jimmy steps in to lead off the bottom half of the inning... with nobody on base... It could happen... just not tonight.

by Hollywood15 on Mar 27, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That interesting. That is what they are doing with Ryan

but they haven't even begun to hint that Braden is injured.

If Looper is injured, this whole argument about Reyes in or out of the rotation is moot.

Looper isn't scheduled to start until Friday, April 4. I believe that would be Reyes day in 'the rotation' from ST to start, correct?

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 27, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's almost as if...

:cough: No decision has been made.:cough:

But yeah. By my math that would be Reyes start. Looper would be the guy I would like to see Reyes take a spot from if he makes it into the Rotation. Either at the start of the season or a week or two into it.

by Evilfrog on Mar 27, 2008 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think he is necessarily hurt

I was thinking more along the lines of a phantom injury to get him off the field and on the DL.. But you do have a point that if they were leaning that way they would start hinting at it.

Or maybe they don't want to admit that they have an entire starting rotation on the DL until they have to.

Jimmy steps in to lead off the bottom half of the inning... with nobody on base... It could happen... just not tonight.

by Hollywood15 on Mar 27, 2008 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone watching the game vs Springfield?

Izturis is tearing it up w/ an infield RBI single.

Gameday Link

Billy Crystal is a tougher out than Izturis.

by tangledbrett on Mar 28, 2008 8:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the Internet's #1 St. Louis Cardinals blog.
Start posting about the Cardinals »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Stl_ia_card_45_-_dark_small
Jeff Pearlman Thinks Of Hair Clumps When He Thinks Of The Thief McGwire
Black-spider-monkey_small
Losing my religion (w/ baseball)

Recent FanPosts

Small
40 Man Question..
Cathybachebay1_small
The current Busine$$ of Baseball...how long can it last?
Avatar_small
VEB CheBird T-Shirt for Sale - Red or Powder Blue, CLEARANCE
Stl_ia_card_45_-_dark_small
October Lore: One In A Million
St-louis-cardinals-script_small
A Team of Free Agents
St-louis-cardinals_small
Report: LaRussa Will Return
Small
Skip's Lament: The Curse of Too Many Decent Players
Stlcardinals4070_small
Closer Fail

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Managers

Jack_benny_small DanUpBaby

Editors

Bender1_small azruavatar

Adam1_small chuckb

Trigun_001_small the red baron