setting records straight
by lboros on Mar 25, 2008 8:26 AM EDT
219 comments
the 2008 baseball season is underway: oakland vs boston, playing in tokyo at 5 in the bleepin' morning stateside. athletics lead it 2-0. mlb’s marketing department triumphs again: opening day. woo-hoo. . . . . .
i admire the heck out of rick hummel; to cardinal fans of my generation, he’s been the equivalent of bob broeg. but his article today is so misleading i can’t let it pass without comment. he writes: "The Cardinals were 21-7 in games started last season by Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer and 57-77 when the two converted relievers didn't start." that’s in the lead graph. another 600 words ensue, yet The Commish never mentions the glaring disparity in run support --- the cardinal offense averaged 5.82 runs a game in thompson / wellemeyer’s 28 starts, vs only 4.19 runs/game in the other 134 games. that explains the disparity in won-loss record far more than thompson and wellemeyer’s pitching. the won-loss record is particularly skewed in wellemeyer’s case. in his 11 starts, the bullpen threw more innings (49.2) than wellemeyer did (49.1) and allowed fewer runs (20, vs wellemeyer’s 26). only 2 of his 11 outings earned the "quality start" seal of approval (ie, 6 or more innings / 3 or fewer runs). yes, the cards went 10-1 when wellemeyer started --- but the offense and the bullpen deserve most of the credit.
i’m not pulling any stat-dork gimmicks here; i’m not citing SLNVAR or VORP or FIP or any such like. just looking at plain ol’ runs and innings pitched. the idea that run support can distort a pitcher’s won-loss record has been around for 30 years; bill james starting tracking that back in the late 1970s, before tony la russa had managed his first big-league game. and it’s tony’s neglect of these concepts --- not hummel’s --- that concerns me. hummel’s article quotes both tony and dave:
Manager Tony La Russa takes the same approach in assessing the importance of the club's record in Wellemeyer-Thompson games last season. "That shows what happens when they pitch effectively," La Russa said. "I like the fact they work quickly and go after hitters.
"But," he said, "that was last year."
exactly --- that was last year. and run support doesn’t carry over from year to year; pitching ability does. judged purely by that standard, thompson and wellemeyer were passable in 2007; i wouldn’t expect them to be much better than passable in 2008. i’ll put a poll at the end of his post --- will the cardinals be over .500 or under it in thompson / welle’s starts this year?
* * * * * * * * * * *
as for anthony reyes, maybe he’ll end up with the mets; they’re looking for a 5th starter. reyes might be a decent fit in shea, which suppresses home runs and (due to poor batter visibility) elevates strikeouts. i have no idea who the mets would send back; they’re disenchanted with mike pelfrey, who’s their version of reyes (struggling high-profile prospect), but i don’t see that guy being a fit in st louis any more than reyes is. reyes pitched against the mets at least once this spring; i gotta believe there’ll be a new york scout in the stands for his start today (gameday link here.
other logical fits: the phillies (long rumored to have interest), the orioles, the marlins, the nats. texas traded for a similar pitcher last year (brandon mccarthy) and got decent results; they can always use another arm. oakland is stockpiling young players; maybe billy beane’ll take another prospect off our hands. oh wait, they’ve already finalized their 25-man roster.
opening-day update: athletics 4, red sox 3 . . . . .
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now here’s a brilliant post. SBN brother site The Good Phight likens each big-league team to a rock n roll band. these guys obviously are decrepit old fools like me, because i’ve actually heard of most of the bands they cite. here’s the entry for the cardinals:
can’t argue with a word of that. the entry for the cubs is equally spot-on:
* * * * * * * * * * *
for those of you who are following the sim tournament: i'm doing my best to keep up, but my current travel / work schedule's brutal. writing summaries is not near the top of my agenda. i think there'll be an update this afternoon . . . .
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Thanks for the link to the rock and roll
Funny (and painfully accurate) stuff.
"Slide DiMaggio, slide!" "Hey, my name isn't DiMaggio, my name is mm..mmmm...mmm....mud."
by cmat on Mar 25, 2008 8:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Surfer Culture
Last year the Surfer Culture that the Beach Boys represent was VERY accurate. Edmonds and Speizio both show it. I wonder what they would call the Cards after this season though.
by StLHugo on Mar 25, 2008 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This same discussion about wins
happened yesterday when my mother called and in the course of the discussion said the Cardinals won something like 14 out of the 17 games Thompson started last year. I replied, "Yes, true. But you have to remember that 365 days last year, the sun came out. Also, in those same 365 days last year, the United States was at war in Iraq. There are lots of things that seem related but really aren't."
She found that quite amusing.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2008 9:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The one difference ...
between Wellemeyer and Thompson is that he had significantly more quality starts. I'm not implying that the run support he experienced vs. the run support Reyes received didn't play a large part in the disparity of the two records. Sometimes run support goes beyond just straight stats. If the runs you give up are typically in bunches early in the game (ala Reyes), than despite that "hard nine" mantra it can cause the offense to press. Thompson seemed to hold off his runs until a little later in the outing, which gives the offense a little more time to get comfortable. I personally believe Wellemeyer just got lucky last year, and he wore out the bullpen in the process. I'm hoping he is the first one to exit the rotation when the other guys start to come back.
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.500
Can you split the .500 and above out to two sections? I know there are already 24 votes so it might not be fair but I wanted to vote for exactly .500, that is what I see both of them as. Somebody that gives you no extra or less chance to win. Just Meh players. Reyes over a good season at least gives you an extra chance to win every so often.
by StLHugo on Mar 25, 2008 9:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also, will the Cardinals trade Reyes?
Despite all of us thinking he was out of options, he apparently has 1 left and thus will pitch in AAA. Maybe they will leave him there as an insurance policy should Looper, Wellemeyer, and Thompson turn into pumpkins while Mulder and Pineiro returns and Clement shows he has nothing left.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2008 9:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't sure
I wasn't sure on his options but I thought he might have one left. If he does go back to AAA though the Memphis team will have to be a favorite for the first half title.
by StLHugo on Mar 25, 2008 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AAA
I didn't think AAA played halves. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Memphis just has one full season.
by arch support on Mar 25, 2008 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe
I know little about how they do AAA so I am probably wrong.
by StLHugo on Mar 25, 2008 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't really know either
I'm basing that off of the way the minor leagues are set up for MLB '07 The Show for PS2. Not exactly a source to be proud of.
by arch support on Mar 25, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
reyes and options
apparently he is in a loophole situation; normally a guy can only be optioned for three seasons, not any particular number of times, but three full seasons of yo-yo-ing
in reyes' case, because this is only his fifth year in the organization, he can be optioned for a 4th year; had this been year six, he would have to clear waivers
Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.
by bigcardsfan5 on Mar 25, 2008 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Barton's line so far
0-2 3BBs 1R 1SO Interesting line, has he always had a "good eye".
by StLHugo on Mar 25, 2008 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
New Pitch...Blah Blah Blah...Off Season Fitness Program
The article about the team's record with Wellemyer and Thompson...it just sounds like typical beginning of the year, need to write an article, nothing much happening, let's throw this positive spin on something not too positive, article. This time on the hideous rotation. They always have these stories, about Joe Shumblock has a new splitter that will make him great this year, Bill Shmecki worked out with the Olympic ping pong team and will have really great hands. Mark Magrunski hit .408 in his cup of coffee, and boy are we excited to see what this guy (with a lifetime .256 average in the minors) can do given a full season. Laser eye surgery!
The point is this bag of beans really is cool.
What is he supposed to write? "Wellemyer and Thompson were pretty bad last year, and I expect the same this year. Don't bother to come out to park on those days unless you want to root for the other team."
What was Duncan supposed to say? "Boy, last year they threw meatball after meatball up there. Not only were we lucky to win those games, we were lucky someone in the stands didn't get killed by a hard hit ball. It's too bad the front office can't get us some decent pitchers. Yup. There's gonna be some long innings when those guys pitch this year. I hope Tony retires soon. I can't take this any more. I'm afraid they're going to try to bring Dave Lapoint back and put him in the rotation. This is no longer a job--it's torture. If Wainwright gets hurt, Kyle Loshe is my ace. Please, just shoot me. Someone, please."
by tarakas on Mar 25, 2008 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice Rant.
Typical St. Louis fan base pessimism, but at least you do it with FLAIR!
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Our Lineup today Per Bird Land
1. Skip Schumaker, RF
2. Brian Barton, LF
3. Albert Pujols, 1B
4. Troy Glaus, 3B
5. Rick Ankiel, CF
6. Jason LaRue, C
7. Aaron Miles, 2B
8. Anthony Reyes, RHP
9. Cesar Izturis, SS
Lets hope Reyes can prove something today that he hasn't yet. If he goes late into this game with very few runs I don't know how they can just ignore that.
by StLHugo on Mar 25, 2008 9:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Have you ever seen the 3 Monkeys? Hands over ears, eyes, and mouth?
That's how.
Reyes would have to throw a perfect game today to get into the rotation and even then, they'd say he wasn't very efficient in doing it.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2008 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ill be pulling for Reyes today...
I havent been his biggest supporter in the past but i hope he pitches a gem today and can find his way to our rotation very soon...good luck AR!
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon
by nomar34 on Mar 25, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who Cares?
I don't care if its "basic" stats or not...I'm tired of hearing the run support "excuse".
There is "something" about Reyes that is negative. I've seen it coaching baseball. The guy isn't excitable, isn't a leader.
People pay too much attention to stats sometimes and forget about personalities.
For whatever unmeasurable reason, Wellemeyer and Thompson get Cardinal hitters excited.
It's not a "fluke stat" when they consistently get run support and Reyes does not.
Furthermore, even if its frustrating that their games might technically be considered bullpen games, would you rather have a bullpen game with a good chance to win, or throw in someone like Mark Redman or another warm body, cheap FA that was available?
by jeffrw on Mar 25, 2008 10:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Leader?
If every player were a leader, who would follow?
In a season where we certainly won't contend, who cares about some replacement level pitcher giving us an occasional chance to win? We should be evaluating what we have for the future.
Run support is fluke stat. It isn't repeatable year to year and many huge name pitchers have had seasons where they got almost none. Pithers like Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson and others have been screwed on Cy Young awards due to run support. Are you saying they had years where they weren't leaders?
by RedbirdRay on Mar 25, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Furthermore
Are you suggesting that pitchers have an influence on how many runs are scored behind him outside of their own plate appearances? You can think that, but it is just wrong. Not subjective opinion wrong, but statistically and factually incorrect.
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
by cardzfan24 on Mar 25, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely they do!
With all do respect, quit making excuses for Reyes.
Explain "statistically" why we can't score for Reyes, but we can for Wellemyer/Thompson.
Do you believe its just "bad luck"? Did one of our Latin players teach Todd and Brad some voodoo?
It's consistent! If it happens every freakin' time, then YES! there is something to my, or anyone else's theory, that Reyes puts the Cardinals batting order on edge, makes them maybe try too hard or just outright depresses them. Players are not machines. When they know they have a stud pitching, they can mentally relax a bit, not worry about trying so hard. Then there is just that confidence. You just feel good in your head when you have someone like Carpenter (for example) on the mound. You are psyched up. Do you think Reyes gets players psyched up? They idea you believe that psychology plays no part is pretty wild!
Explain to me how "run support" is the only reason a pitcher with that high of an ERA looses games.
Clemens, Johnson and any other pitcher you mentioned weren't allowing every runner on base to score. They didn't have ERA's north of 5 or 6.
Reyes is a bad major league pitcher.
by jeffrw on Mar 25, 2008 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
I don't really know how to respond to this.
First of all, it looks like you are responding to two different posts, but referring to us as a singular "you".
Secondly, you've put a whole lot of words into both of our mouths. Neither of us made a single excuse for Reyes or even brought him up. Yet, you tell us to stop making excuses for him. I took exception with your "theory" that run support is a result of a pitcher's leadership skills.
Cardzfan cited similar problems with your statement.
Also, neither of us stated anything about "psychology", yet you say "the idea you believe that psychology plays no part is pretty wild!". That's pretty far out...inserting words and telling us what we believe to try to prove your arguement.
I'm not even going to keep debating with you.
by RedbirdRay on Mar 25, 2008 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do apologize for combining the two posts.
I questioned in my original post the ability of Reyes to be a leader on the mound and get his team excited.
The "psychology" part was directed more at cardzfan24 than you. What else would I mean by making your team "excited"? His thinking is based too much in linear statistics and individual performances and essentially taking the stance that there are no mental or "clubhouse factors" that contribute to team morale or performance. He claims I am wrong and that I can't prove it "factually" or "statistically". I never said it was the only factor, or even a huge one. But it plays a role. I don't need to prove it. Anyone who has ever played sports or coached knows about how your mental state effects your game. And worrying about a guy, alone on a mound, who the game hinges on, is a legit argument.
However, in regards to being a leader...your comments...you give examples of rare exceptional pitchers who are very much aces and pitch like it. There lack of run support was CLEARLY from poor offensive teams. Those pitches pitched quality games worthy of Cy Young's. How many Cy Young-esque games did Reyes pitch last year?
Look, I apologize for seeming crass. I'm simply tired of this argument for Reyes being on our team. Bad blog today, imo. I can't complain too much, because I could never write such a wonderful blog. I just think today is a miss, not a hit. It's just a silly argument to me. He's had two bad seasons and hasn't really shown any improvement.
Run support DOES NOT MATTER when comparing Reyes to Wellemeyer/Thompson...just look at their ERA's. Basic pitching stat. Reyes allows a bunch of runs, the others do not. Looking at run support for Reyes isn't looking at the real problem...when Reyes has 3.00 ERA and is loosing, then we can look at run support.
by jeffrw on Mar 25, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can not like Reyes
and that is fine. I am starting to get annoyed with the whole process of seeing if he can contribute anything as well
But my point remains, luck has a much larger role than psychology when it comes to run support. These guys are professional baseball players who have a job to play the game, score runs, and play defense. The vast majority of them play their best all the time, regardless of the pitcher or situation. Assuming otherwise is fine, but you have to prove it is true in spite of evidence to the contrary.
The blog post today was in reference to W/L records while the respective pitchers were on the mound. You CANNOT discuss those records without mentioning run support. It just is not possible. Run support has nothing to do with the skill of the pitchers, that is certainly true. It is misleading to simply cite won/loss stats without mentioning that Todd and Brad got a considerable higher number of runs scored for them than Reyes.
And feel free to hook your wagon to the Welly/Wonderbrad rotation. It is going to be a disaster. You might beg for Reyes to start when this crap starts hitting the fan.
"I believe he’s been reincarnated, that he played before, in the twenties and thirties, and he’s back to prove something." - Former teammate Mark McGwire about Albert Pujols
by cardzfan24 on Mar 25, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reyes had bad luck, but he was still really, really bad.
According to B-P, his "expected support-neutral W-L percentage" was the 7th worst among starting pitchers w/100 IP last year, with only Kip Wells, Scott Olsen, Vicente Padilla, Buddy Carlyle, Adam Eaton and Josh Towers being worse. Sorting by "expected support neutral team win percentage" in his starts, only Kip Wells and Scott Olsen were worse (Eaton tied).
The thing is, Reyes is probably better than any of the numbers he put up; most likely the psychological effects of losing game after game and the effects of being shuttled to Memphis hurt him badly. But there's no way to know. What we do know for sure is that run support alone did not make Reyes a bad pitcher in 2006-2007.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
by SleepyCA on Mar 25, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post.
You might want to add the psychological effects of telling a guy that his pitching approach is all wrong, and that he needs to completely change what type of pitcher he is.
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't that how they help YOUNG pitchers?
By teaching them what works best? Pitch to contact. Get the groundballs. So a 24 year old knows better? Who else on the Cardinals pitch anyway they want? As far as I can tell, all of the pitchers "pitch to contact", why shouldn't Reyes?
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your evidence that ...
they help YOUNG pitchers is? They have typically been poor at that facet, and frankly if you fit their mold you do well. Pitching to contact is a valuable skill, admittedly. Apparently, they don't teach or identify that type of thing in the minor league system. Why were they so high on this guy until last year? Suddenly, the best arm in the system doesn't have an "out pitch." His mechanics were destroyed last year, so his velocity was significantly reduced and his curve became "loopy". This was a result of making him question his entire delivery and approach. You don't do that in a guy's first year in the league.
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, lets see whom they helped...
Matt Morris, Rick Ankiel (unless you blame his wildness on LaRussa), Bud Smith, Danny Haren, Adam Wainwright and Brad Thompson. If you want to blame LaRussa for the woes of the farm system, then there is no way I can argue against that logic.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uh, no credit for Haren...
He didn't succeed until he was away from LaDuncan.
And Wainwright is iffy too, I think, since he was from Atlanta.
So basically just Matt Morris. One pitcher in 12 years un LaDuncan.
by DiscoJer on Mar 25, 2008 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Braves ...
were not convinced Wainwright was going to develop the mentality to be a starter. Putting him in the bullpen with Isringhausen, and later in the rotation with Carpenter, had a pronounced effect on his development. I will give the Cards (as a whole) credit for Wainwright.
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A little misleading...
in that Bud Smith was a flame-out (hence why he was gone so fast). Dan Haren was not given an opportunity to succeed with the Cards (and it was widely accepted that he would top out at a #4 starter). Rick Ankiel was affected by Duncan changing his mechanics during his innaugural season (oh my god, a LHP that throws across his body, crazy). Brad Thompson is a sinker-baller that requires a Duncan-style of approach to be successful (remember this blog was about Thompson's success being misleading). Matt Morris was a sinker-baller, who clearly had ace stuff before injuries slowed him down (I still contend that Darryl Kile was really his pitching coach). Adam Wainwright also fits the Duncan-style pitcher (and it has been well documented that Carpenter and Isringhausen have had a lot to do with his success). Regardless, I'll grant you 2 1/2 quality starters out of your list. In 12 years, that's quite a record.
I will argue that LaRussa's veterans-first approach had a great deal to do with emptying out the farm system. He also has a great deal to do with setting the tone of what types of players are required for the major league team. That wasn't my point by referencing the minors before, anyway. I was identifying an inconsistency in the statements of the organization about this kid that seemed to arise only once he started struggling in the major leagues. The kid was around the major league ball club several years. Why did they authorize him coming up if he didn't have major league stuff?
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bud Smith was traded for Rolen
he flamed out with the Phillies, but we don't know what he would have done in StL in a more pitcher friendly park.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mar 25, 2008 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bud was ...
actually already starting to flame out here (6.94 ERA over 10 starts in '02), and he actually never played in the majors for the Phillies. Ballpark statement doesn't apply. Sorry.
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If pitchers were able to get teams "excited"
there should be statistical trends of some pitchers consistently (meaning more than 12-15 starts). Those don't exist. They've been proven not to exist. So no, a pitcher does not have an influence on how many runs their team scores with them on the mound.
by azruavatar on Mar 25, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one thing an NL pitcher does have control over:
his own hitting performance. And Reyes can't hit a lick, nor can he bunt. In an NL lineup that is a bad thing.
His failure to get the bunt down in the fifth inning today inspired me to look up how bad he's been in that area; in his three years in the majors, he's had 8 successful sacrifice bunts, 9 unsuccessful sacrifice attempts and 2 bunt hits.
Two of his 5 hits in the last three years have been on failed bunt attempts! That is insane.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
by SleepyCA on Mar 25, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now we eval pitchers on their hitting?
Really?
Yes it would be nice if they all hit like Adam and Rick, but in this real world thats not going to happen.
by DriverZn on Mar 25, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not "evaluating him" on it
but it's important to recognize that "hitting like rick and adam" and "failing to execute a simple sacrifice bunt more than 50% of the time" are two different things, and tangible. They affect run scoring.
I'm just saying that Reyes bears some of the responsibility for his lack of run support. I don't think that is even arguable, and it's not something I've seen mentioned before. I'm not saying it is THE reason, but it's at least a contributing factor.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
by SleepyCA on Mar 25, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you John Kruk?
Has he been known to troll around on blogs?
by arch support on Mar 25, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how about turning it around
How do you think a rookie pitcher is going to perform when he goes out there knowing he'll be lucky to get a run or two while he's still out there on the mound?
by TICY on Mar 25, 2008 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That MLB/Rock and Roll Band
write-up was pretty spot-on. After seeing that the Phillies' site hasn't received the up-grade yet, I can say that I don't miss the old look at all. Got used to the new ways pretty fast.
I also found Tony and Dunc's comments in the P-D this morning somewhat disconcerting. But, like Hugo, I wish that right at .500 was an option for the poll.
by cardsgirl95 on Mar 25, 2008 10:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't miss the old look either.
Because I tend to be rather anal about these things, I have been following the upgrades on SBN, and the following teams have come over to the new look thus far:
A's
Giants
Rockies
Angels
Orioles
Cubs
White Sox
Astros
there may be one or two others, but so far, it seems like the new format is catching on
by tbell61 on Mar 25, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reyes lack of run support
May be related to the fact that Reyes was so bad in the first couple of innings, giving up runs before the hitters even get up to bat and this sets the mood for every game he pitched. I don't have the stats but maybe someone can post when Wellemeyer/Thompson gave up most of thier runs (I'm guessing the 4th and 5th inning) where as Reyes worse innings were the 1st and 2nd.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 10:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
gamelog
i dont have the stat your looking for, but i just perused welly's gamelog on yahoo. there were a couple well pitched games, but the rest he was clearly the benefactor of the offense. sometimes he was spotted runs before taking the mound and promptly gave them back up. sometimes he gave up runs, the offense would fight back, he would give them up again, and the offense would let him off the hook after he lasted less than 4 innings. last year was an illusion of sorts. if he hasnt improved the results will show it this year. i hope he has improved.
i dont think there is anything to the theory that wellemeyer put up a couple zeros in the first few innings which allowed the offense to relax and score runs.
by dmb60614 on Mar 25, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the reyes/wells aspect
I want to make a counter point in regard to this post. I think that Thompson and Wellmeyer actually had something to do with the win loss records. Consider the following: Reyes and Wells combined to start 56 games last year and had a combined record of 9 - 31. That allows for 16 no decisions and I'm at work so I can't research what happened in those no decisions, but even if the cards won them all, that's still only 25 - 31. Now what was the problem that plagued Wells and Reyes? The big Inning. Reyes and Wells didn't keep the cards in the game. While Thompson and Wellmeyer weren't great, and by some standards weren't even good, what they did do was not put the team in an early hole. Maybe that allowed for the hitters to not press, and approach at-bats differently. Now, I know they are not the solution, however, I do think they can do a very capable job of holding over the rotation until the injured 4 some returns. I know I have no evidence to suport this, but in games not started by Wells and Reyes last year the cardinals were actually a pretty good team, and if you replaced their starts by a 500 pitcher they would have been contenders.
by stickman179 on Mar 25, 2008 10:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
You can't tell me that finding
your team down by 4 runs in the first or second inning is not a buzzkill for hitters, especially hitters on a team that is not an established offensive monster. So there is something to be said for this. I think this effect was especially true for the 2006-7 Cardinals, since we would fairly often see 3 consecutive games in which the starters coughed up bushels of early runs. But I'd be very wary about accepting this as the whole explanation for this question. Has any statistical analysis been done on the effect of early deficits?
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 25, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
quick and dirty
Well I did a fast count. Earned Runs per Inning on games started only in 2007.
Reyes (20 starts)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
24 9 18 9 6 4 1 0 0
Wellemeyer/Thompson (26 Starts)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
14 11 15 5 7 10 3 0 0
Found out that Wellemeyer/Thompson gave up only 5 big innings (3 or more runs)
Reyes gave up 12 with 9 of those in the first three innings.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sweet, what about kip wells?
Maybe there is validity to this thompson/wellmeyer winning thing. Granted they do strain the bullpen, but a 4th or 5th starter isn't expected to throw late into ballgames. They are simply suppose to keep you in it with 5 or 6 decent innings. By avoiding the big inning these guys do that. Kip wells and Reyes did not. That was the struggle last year. This year the staff has the ability to stay out of the big inning. Hope springs eternal.
by stickman179 on Mar 25, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't do Wells
Sorry, but being he's not part of the team this year, I didn't look at him. But I bet he was about like Reyes.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's cool
I would have to agree with that assessment. So, here's my main point. Last year the Cardinals were 78 - 84. Take out the games that Reyes and Wells got decisions and the team is 69 - 53. WOW! That is one hell of a different team. I think that makes quite the statement for staying out of the big inning and how it can effect the offense as well. If you want to pin the failures of last year, look no further than Reyes and Wells. If you want to look for signs of hope for this year, I believe the offense is improved, and by subtracting those 2 from the rotation, and replacing them with guys who aren't great, but don't give up the big inning and I think this team has a good chance to surprise some people.
by stickman179 on Mar 25, 2008 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strain on the bullpen ...
needs to be clarified. You need to split up Thompson and Wellemeyer when you say that. I don't remember the exact numbers, but Thompson had something like 11 or 12 "quality starts" out of his 17 starts. That is better than you got out of Wells, Reyes, or Wellemeyer by a long shot.
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Tony is just being polite to Hummel
Those quotes seem like Hummel asked him about those stats and Duncan and Tony just gave him one of those "sure I'll agree with you" comments.
I wouldn't get too heated up about it.
I still agree with others, psychologically I always felt like we're going to lose when Reyes/Wells blew up early in the game.
you can't sneak the sun past the rooster
by enoscountry on Mar 25, 2008 10:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And "misleading" is less than polite to the HOF commish
Wish that kind of lboros scrutiny of a Hummel column would occasionally be applied to the king of "misleading" in STL--Miklasz. A disappointing cacophony, indeed.
watching from Belgium
by waffle on Mar 25, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boo DirectTV!
An hour+ after the opening game of the season ends, DirectTV finally gets ESPN2 back on the air.
A couple of the Nic channels were out too. My kids weren't impressed either.
by RedbirdRay on Mar 25, 2008 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
dish
didnt have any problems with dishnet, they went straight to mike & mike after the game
Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.
by bigcardsfan5 on Mar 25, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one more reason I got rid of directtv
and switched to comcast... directtv adds new level of suckitude to the term "bad service"...
When cheese gets its picture taken, what does it say?
by RosevilleRedbird on Mar 25, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe I missed it
But has anyone written about or discussed which pitchers the Cards were facing when Wellemeyer, Thompson, and Reyes started? I seem to remember Reyes getting some bad draws.
Seems like a good place to start looking for cause/effect.
youneverknow
by meat on Mar 25, 2008 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How about this: Reyes sucks.
Look at his numbers comparing 2006 to 2007. He remarkably consistent.
2006: 17 starts
2007: 20 starts
2006: 2.11 SO to BB
2007: 1.73 SO to BB
WHIP and HR allowed is pretty much identical in both years.
2006: 1.77 earned run for each inning pitched.
2007: 1.5 earned run for each inning pitched.
He can't get anyone out. If they get on base, they score. He's like Randy Flores, only a starter.
You take out, what? 3 good games and he hasn't done anything on a major league level.
by jeffrw on Mar 25, 2008 11:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Some pitchers start slow.
Would you give up on one that in his 4th year put up a 6.26 ERA and a 113:83 SO/bb ratio. ?
by DriverZn on Mar 25, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh please.
Carpenter had already proven he could pitch on the major league level. He already had two slightly better than league average ERA winning seasons. And in the AL East.
I'm surprised you didn't bring up Bonderman, that's usually who Reyes defenders bring up.
by jeffrw on Mar 25, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
jeff, the post wasn't about reyes
you're the one who brought him up.
you seem to be positing a cause/effect relationship between a pitcher's leadership qualities (and/or his performance) and the number of runs scored behind him. but i don't see any facts to back those opinions up. until i do, i can't take them seriously.
by lboros on Mar 25, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well maybe I jumped the gun on it with Reyes. It usually seems when people make the case against Thompson or Wellemeyer, its because they are advocating for Reyes.
I just happen to believe that a pitcher and his personality can effect other players. I don't believe its the only thing, just a contributing factor. Why else would a team excel with one and shutdown with another?
You are smarter than me, especially when it comes to statistics. And I agree that run support cannot be carried over from year to year. However, WHY would run support consistently be higher for two pitchers and consistently lower for another? How can "luck" (good or bad) happen all the time? Shouldn't luck be random?
by jeffrw on Mar 25, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Luck is random
but in given sample sizes, you should always expect a run of consistency every now and then.
Humans lack the capacity to intuitively understand "random". For example, flip a coin 1,000 times and you'll get approximately 50% heads and 50% tails. But, if you look through the log of flips, you'll notice runs of 8, 12, 15, 24, or even more heads in a row....and likewise for tails. Randomness does not discount runs. In fact, runs are a feature of randomness when you look at small enough samples. They are common in a large sample.
The human fallacy is seeing runs in small sample size and applying meaning to them. A perfect example is the fact that last season, Wellemeyer and Thompson got excellent run support from the offense. Your position that Reyes, Wellemeyer, and Thompson can be held in some sense responsible for how their offense performs in their starts is based on the fallacy about the true nature of randomness and what constitutes an appropriate sample size.
It would be like saying that if you could flip a coin and get heads ten times in a row, you have some kind of special talent. Not true: in reality, you just caught a run in a small sample size. In other words, you were lucky.
by arch support on Mar 25, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
well stated arch support
i think you've described what happened last year. in a small number of trials (fewer than 20 starts), welley and thompson consistently got a lot of run support, while reyes consistently got the shaft.
it's also fair to say that reyes didn't pitch well. some people above have made fair points about his penchant to give up the big inning ---- if you keep doing that and continually put your team in a hole, that makes the hitters' job tougher. but the opposite is also true ---- when a batting order doesn't support a pitcher with runs, it makes the pitcher's job tougher. reyes rarely got to pitch with a lead last year, because the hitters rarely put runs on the board for him early (or late, for that matter). when he got into jams, he knew he had no margin for error; he pitched scared, and he got punished.
that's not to excuse anthony ---- it's to evaluate him fairly. our debates about reyes at VEB often get hung up on arguments about who deserves "credit" or "blame" for last year's losses, when what really matters is: who is likely to pitch well in the future? when we dissect 2007, we want to get the most accurate read possible on 2008.
by lboros on Mar 25, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see your logic, but I disagree somewhat, arch.
I hate to jump in halfway through this argument, but I see how jeff's strategy is legit. IF Reyes goes out and gives up a 5-spot in the first inning or two, then obviously, the team is down early, and by a lot. Any good manager will realize that this game is probably a lost cause early on. Thus, he will immediately start to pinch-hit and begin double-switching his regulars out of the lineup so they can rest for the remainder of the game. This should lower Anthony's run support, as the lineup during the bulk of his starts looks like a B-squad game than a norman one. The lineup would feature Ludwick, Duncan, Miles, Spezio, and Skippy instead of Eckstein, Edmonds, Encarnacion, etc...
As a result, Anthony would enjoy a less potent lineup and less run support.
I'm a man, a manly, manly, man. Unknown
by Eckstreem on Mar 25, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're absolutely right
Being down early will affect how a manager calls the game, potentially changing the final number of runs the offense scores in a game.
But that is verifiable by looking at the box score and seeing the moves made. Thus far, no one has pointed to an observable change to how the offense behaves when Reyes pitches versus anyone else. Therefore, no one has proved that Reyes pitching, or Tony's managing, affects the amount of runs the Cards offense scores during those starts.
It's still all just conjecture. IMO, misguided conjecture at that.
by arch support on Mar 25, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's still 3 more good games
than Wellemeyer and Thompson have had from the rotation!
by chuckb on Mar 25, 2008 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hummel's piece
is in the same vain as Jeff Gordon's five reasons why the Cards might not be as bad as everyone thinks article; it's Kool-Aid drinking at its best(or worst, depending on your take).
If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something.
by cardsrul on Mar 25, 2008 12:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If they don't...
at least give some glimmers of hope, then people will stay home. If nobody's watching, then nobody's reading their paper. It's just good business.
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2006 - Hope Springs Eternal
Found this quote by Lance Berkman in Hummel's piece today about the Astros.
"I look at St. Louis in 2006," he said. "You had Chris Carpenter and a bunch of 'maybes.' So, if you've got one dominant starter and four or five guys who can pitch pretty well, you've got a chance."
It's great to see our guys used as an example to give hope to the hopeless. :)
by blehmann on Mar 25, 2008 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
A tale of 3 Pitchers
Anthony Reyes, Brad Thompson and Adam Wainwright. All had their first ML appearance in 2005, and spent seasons in St. Louis in 2006 & 2007. All had the same team playing behind them and all had exactly the same Pitching Coach and Manager.
The career stats:
Reyes_______W/L % .258____IP 206 _____ERA 5.42
Thompson___W/L % .619____IP 241______ERA 4.00
Wainwright___W/L % .552____IP 279______ERA 3.61
So what does this say? Is it about opportunity or about talent?
by O'Fallon Park on Mar 25, 2008 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention
Reyes had more starts then Thompson. .
by Evilfrog on Mar 25, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
W/L and ERA
are not good indicators of a pitcher's ability.
by azruavatar on Mar 25, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ERA is at least better than W-L
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
by Mr Redbird on Mar 25, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
ERA is a great indicator of RESULTS. This is the crux of the Reyes argument. I'm happy he has a good changeup and a lively fastball, but he has consistently failed to get results. Ability is worthless without the mentality that helps get results.
I'm a man, a manly, manly, man. Unknown
by Eckstreem on Mar 25, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
predicting future results based solely on past results
is a sure way to fail. Every projection system out there uses stats that have high year-to-year correlations to project players going forward. They don't use ERA but rather stats like K rate, BB rate and a plethora of other peripherals that are more worthwhile than ERA. Play the mentality card all you want but you'll have more misses than hits basing your predictions/projections on ERA.
by azruavatar on Mar 25, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Today's Gameday link ...
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2007/gd.html?2008_03_25_wasmlb_slnmlb_1&brand=mlb
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Reyes is being 'economical' with
his pitches today. Keep it up, ARey...even though it's for no reason.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2008 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Much better than taking 60 picthes to get throw 2 innings. And it is for a reason. He is auditioning for someone's rotation.
by Evilfrog on Mar 25, 2008 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice job by Reyes in 3rd inning
as well. Looking good today. Doing what they want, pitch to contact.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did they just say Brian Barton left the game?
If so, why?
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2008 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, Ludwick came in for him ...
but I don't know why ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is gameday correct?
3 IP and 9 pitches?????
What happened to our team?
by und3rtovv on Mar 25, 2008 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No ... Gameday never keeps the pitch count ...
stats accurately during Spring training games ... however ... he is pitching very effeciently ... I can't believe we're probably going to trade this guy away and keep a guy like Looper around ... La Russa and Duncan should be whipped over this ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
If A-Rey has a great day today against the Nats, any way a scout from the Mets or Phils sees it as someone who just shut down a team either of them plays 15-20 or so times a year and bites?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
by Mr Redbird on Mar 25, 2008 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If he pitches this well
Keep him and give them Looper and some change.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last year
Reyes only had one game that he didn't allow a run till the 7th inning. He had 4 other games with 3 scoreless innings at the beginning of the game. My point is, what he is pitching today is not the norm, but this is certainly what all of us "see" in him for potential.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
AReyes just passed
a test in my book - he didn't wilt with runners on base. He got that elusive third out without letting a run score. Well done, Anthony.
by cardsgirl95 on Mar 25, 2008 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely ...
Why we want Looper in the rotation making 5.5M a year when we could have Anthony making a tenth of that is simply beyond me ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What Reyes did today
will have LaRussa and Duncan be eating Rolaids for dinner. What to do? Send Reyes to Memphis? Trade Reyes? Put Reyes in #3 spot, Looper into #4 and Thompson into Bullpen? Wellemeyer into Bullpen? What to do indeed?
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt it.
They've already made up their minds. The best this does is increase his trade value. I'm okay with that, and I think in the right organization this kid will probably become a pitcher. He won't do it with the Cards 'cuz Duncan doesn't like his approach to pitching. He wants to change him, and the kid hasn't had enough success at the major league level to have the confidence in his own approach.
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
50% groundballs today
His average for groundballs is always around 35%. This has alway been Duncan's goal to get him to do, hence the two-seam fast ball (hope I remember this right) that they pushed so hard on him to do last year. So maybe he can UNchange their minds. Will see.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In a RATIONAL world ...
you would be correct, OKCARD ... but unfortunately, La Ruscan think with their arse when it comes to Reyes ... I really don't get it ... they don't treat anyone else this way ... that I know of ... why do they keep messing (I would rather use an expletive here that begins with 'f') with this guy? ... Anyone with a little long term thinking should realize they've been training a guy for two years to acclimate himself to the bigs ... why get rid of him and let someone else reap the benefit? Get your head out of your ass and move Looper back to the pen where he belongs and let Anthony start ... okay ... I'll stop ranting now ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Haren got and Ryan is getting the same BS treatment. See also: j-rod.
by DriverZn on Mar 25, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and in large part, brad thompson.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
by SleepyCA on Mar 25, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So Tony tells Reyes to compete
he comes out and throws a gem, does exactly what Tony tells him to do and what do you want to bet he gets bubkis for it?
They should let him go out there for the 7th as well, but Franklin is warming up.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2008 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I thought he meant
World B. Free...
I was hoping to see some bright orange Cavs jerseys.
"The only thing you know about pitching is that you can't hit it." Bob Gibson to Tim McCarver
by player2bnamedl8r on Mar 25, 2008 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anthony Reyes ...
has lowered his ERA to 3.32 today ... that's second best of those 'competing' for the starting staff ... it's better than even Wainright's ... doesn't this kid OBVIOUSLY belong in rotation ???
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sooner or later ...
I'm going to start spelling WainWRIGHT's name correctly !
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but...
Duncan and LaRussa are more interested in doing it their way. Time to trade the kid, and move on.
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
RE: Young pitchers
How 'bout this guy (first two ML seasons):
36 games (32 starts), 187 ip, 225 h, 1.66 whip, 5.59 era, 8-18 W-L
Or this other guy's first two ML seasons:
43 games (all starts), 246 ip, 104k-96bb, 1.43 whip, 4.76 era, 9-21 W-L
Neither one got out of the gate very quickly, but they got exposure to ML hitters, they had good stuff and learned how to "pitch," and became very good ML pitchers....
by salvomania on Mar 25, 2008 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'll bite ...
who are they?
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I bring them up a lot also.
Some pitchers take a while to settle into the majors. Its not an easy adjustment.
I don't really have an issue with Thompson starting. I do have one with Wellemeyer over Reyes. There is nothing that Wellemeyer does that Reyes cannot do. Neither are the duncan type pitchers. But Wellemeyer can do no wrong even when he piles up the walks and pitch count.
by DriverZn on Mar 25, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im more against...
Lopper over Reyes. But man, did he make a case for himself today. Anyone know the pitch count?
by Evilfrog on Mar 25, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
David Cone is another good one
but he took a lot longer to settle in.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mar 25, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
great example
... a starting pitcher of Reyes' demonstrable talent should be given every opportunity and treated with patience. Why LaDuncan has treated the kid with scorn from nearly Day 1 is beyond me. Was it just the high socks and flat billed hat?
by jjray on Mar 25, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You can add Schilling
to that list. he had his troubles.. it has happened a lot over the years.
by ridgesee on Mar 25, 2008 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love to be a fly on the wall
in Moz's office right now. What conversations are going on about Reyes? Who's frustrated with whom?
Does Moz let TLR win this round, since AR can be AAA'd one more time, then impose AR on LaDunc later in the year (when, not if, either Wellemeyer or Looper craps out), or does he give up and pursue a trade?
What kind of conversations are Moz & TLR having with AR himself? Enquiring minds want to know.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 25, 2008 3:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
With AR... nothing will be said to him.
The most AR will hear is "Great game today". But yes, I would like to be that fly.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who is Reyes mentor this year?
I know early last year he tried to belly up close to Pujols, but heard that didn't sit well with others.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep, probably so,
And it'll be his catcher or one of the other players who says it, too.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 25, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah. Me too. Mr. Mozeliak was quoted in the PD that he wanted Anthony Reyes
in the opening day rotation. They should NOT under any circumstances, send him to AAA. Send him to St. Louis with the big club, or out of town. He just completed 10 straight scoreless innings. I know it's a small sample size, but so is everyone else's. He's near the top of this competition. But he lost.
Mr. Mozeliak trade him. I'm prepared to bring this point up every single day.......
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 25, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jill,
you pretty much already do. Can it get worse?
by Alxfritz on Mar 25, 2008 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sir, I said I would. And I did. And I will. Unless Mr. lboros himself asks me not to.
Then I won't. He's the guy in charge. You can simply choose not to read my posts if you find me annoying.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 25, 2008 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, No Jillsinmo
hold on...let's keep him. Up to now, I had thought that maybe he might have some arm damage. Now I don't think that is the case. I think it is just a short stretch down the road, that La Russa might have to tuck it up and go to him.
by ridgesee on Mar 25, 2008 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with your points
but what good does bogging down a blog with posts about it do?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
by Mr Redbird on Mar 25, 2008 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Hardcore
can promote Barton for 3 weeks, why can't jills promote Reyes for 3.....huh....
by ridgesee on Mar 25, 2008 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couple things
1. Maybe my readership died down at that point, but I don't remember the HL/Barton thing. It is very noticeable in this case.
2. Regardless, what good does it do?
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
by Mr Redbird on Mar 25, 2008 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mr. Redbird
Sir, sorry if I annoy you. Please feel free to put me on ignore.
If Mr. LBoros himself finds me to be annoying, he can ask me to stop. As long as he doesn't say anything, I feel I'm free to comment on whatever I like. No matter how many times.......
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 25, 2008 10:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
jill, a question
when you say above "i'm prepared to bring this subject up every single day" --- what would your objective be in doing that? based on the feedback the community gave you, it doesn't sound like this would have much of an impact on anybody else's opinion ---- if anything, it might create a backlash. people would become so sick of hearing about reyes they might judge him more negatively. this has already happened to a large extent ---- reyes has been so thoroughly debated on this board (and i'm not just singling you out ---- a lot of people think i harp on this subject too much as well) that it has created an anti-reyes camp. there are people who are rooting for the guy to fail, just to shut his supporters up.
because reyes was in the news today, it's understandable the subject would come up and you'd express your opinion on it. i have no problem with that. i expressed some thoughts on reyes in the main post; it's fair game. but the idea of bringing the subject up every single day . . . . . . i don't see what that would accomplish. explain?
by lboros on Mar 25, 2008 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is exactly the point I was trying to convey
I'm not advocating either side. I just don't know what good it does to bring this up over and over and over again ad nauseam, unless it makes you feel better on a personal level.
In fact, I'm tired of the treatment Reyes is getting, and I agree with most of what you say. Writing about it on a blog every day doesn't make it any better, though.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
by Mr Redbird on Mar 25, 2008 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
So do we get to start calling out other posters who bang a particular drum repeatedly now?
And how exactly do we calculate the "value metric" that our posts now apparently have to live up to before the torches are lit and pitchforks passed out?
I thought we were free to post our opinions as long as they don't violate the Community Guidelines? Perhaps we need to add a new guideline that references a certain threshold of repeated comments on the same subject within a certain timeframe...
Yes, I'm being snarky, but this strikes me as a particularly slippery slope.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on Mar 25, 2008 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Maybe when reading my posts it appears that I want to restrict posting, but I never ever said that. As you pointed out, as long as posts are within the guidelines, they are legitimate. However, I also have the right (or maybe even privilege) to ask about a certain poster's position, no? As long as it's within the guidelines, as you pointed out.
If it seems like I'm trying to get jill to not post every day or quiet her opinion, that's not what I've set out to do. I really hope and expect that what I've been saying doesn't cause her to change her posting habits, I know I don't hold that much sway on this blog, and I know she's an intelligent and strong-minded poster. However, the question I've been asking, which still hasn't been answered and is like what lb asked earier as well, is what is the point?
And this "value metric" idea for comments that you brought up, I never once said anything to that effect. Those are your words, not mine.
I guess what I'm trying to say is if I seem negative or I seem like I want to suppress the rights (or even privileges) of users of this site to post, I apologize. That was never my intent. I'm just trying to understand a fellow poster's viewpoints and reasoning.
PS - I'm a big fan of your signature
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
by Mr Redbird on Mar 26, 2008 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah.
Yes, when I read it, it really did come across as a bit of an attack and an attempt to stifle Jill's posts. That's what prompted my admittedly sarcastic response.
Thanks for the explanation.
And the "value metric" was merely an amusing (to me, anyway) red herring as part of my straw man argument in refuting what I perceived to be an attempt at censorship. Guilty as charged. :-)
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on Mar 26, 2008 5:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh he sure has been the topic around here a lot. I have been bringing up
Mr. Mozeliak because of what he said about what he wanted. And I'm mad that he never gets asked that. Okay, I'll defer to the will of the people. It's your house, as they say.
Reyes has been the topic of and on because well, things have been as we say, a little strange with him lately.
Thanks for not just singleing me out; as several folks play along here. I really have no goal other than to state my opinion.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 25, 2008 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, the pust up above was supposed to be to lboros.....
You kids, going and changing the format and all.....
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 25, 2008 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is
It is a reply to LBs, it is tabbed exactly the same as Mr. Redbird's post is. When you have the number of reply's his does than the next post gets kinda lost in the train. It happened on the old format too.
BTW, don't stop bringing up Reyes, but make sure you do it when it serves a purpose, if the main post or comment you are replying too is about Ankiel than bringing up Reyes might cause backlash, but like this one when it is about pitchers who haven't exactly been as advertised I think it is justified to bring up Reyes.
by StLHugo on Mar 26, 2008 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hell,
how did you miss it? Ask HL, he'll tell you. Old Hardcore don't back down.
by ridgesee on Mar 25, 2008 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um, Jill has been promoting Reyes for 2 years
slight difference. How could you miss it?
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2008 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You might be right HL
I don't find it hard to tolerate either of you.
by ridgesee on Mar 25, 2008 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jill ... you are absolutely correct ...
I like the way you think ... but, I'm afraid Anthony is going to be a casualty of the way this management team thinks ... the guy's numbers this spring compare to everyone else he's supposedly 'competing' against, but he loses ... it's all politics and inter-personal relationships, I guess ... there's no other way I can get my head around it ... everyone does not have the 'prestine' route to starting in the bigs that Adam has had (no knock against Adam ... I love the kid) ... sometimes it's a hard road ... he's paved that road; and I believe, genuinely started to turn that corner ... but they want to dump him ... it boggles my mind ... but anyway, I've enjoyed reading your posts about Mr. Reyes ... stick to your guns ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you.
I have been mad about it for a long, long, long time. I've heard that Duncan and LaRussa are already saying well, the wind was blowing in, and the players made some great plays behind him.and it's only the Nationals. Okay. He still threw strikes, and I hope the fielders will always make great plays behind their pitchers. It's called good defense. It is a team sport after all. Last time I looked, the Nationals are a ML team. As long as they allow them to play, I'm going to have to go along with that and call them a ML team.
Yeah. If they can't even say anything nice when he pitches well- and he has 10 scoreless innings in a row now- they just need to stop talking. It makes them sound stupid. It is not helpful for anyone for field management to say anything negative about a player, especially one they are trying to unload. Stupid beyond belief......
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 25, 2008 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To me
It's not just that they talk about Reyes in platitudes. It's that they point to the fact that Reyes has played a weak team, all the while ignoring that Thompson and Wellemeyer also played weak teams.
by arch support on Mar 26, 2008 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that is just cold
in a spring training game, intentionally walking the organizational player who's trying to make the team. Wtf.
Boo.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
by SleepyCA on Mar 25, 2008 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's another wiener ... and 10 of the last 12 ...
it's good to win a game finally when only scoring 3 runs ... great job Anthony! I hope it means something to someone making the decisions ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
still little run support
Interesting that after scoring 6+ runs in most of our last few games we only score 3 while Reyes is pitching. But at least he got the W. I still really like the kid. And for those that doubt him as really able to be better than his 5+ ERA last year please take a look at his Minor league numbers, a 1.04 WHIP and 3.23 ERA are nothing to sneeze at even for minor leagues.
by StLHugo on Mar 25, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's better
That a whole bunch of runs were NOT scored. Works better to dispell any doubts he wilts under pressure.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully
The fact that Reyes WON THE GAME will finally be a sign to the men upstairs that he has talent and can contribute to the rotation.
Up to this point "results" hasn't meant anything about how effective you've been and moreso what the team does when you start. Well, the team finally won. Maybe La Russa will see that Reyes can get results.
by arch support on Mar 25, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just saw the box score....
Can't help but see this as a big fat "F--- you" from Reyes to Tony and Dave. Good for him.
This will be a real test of just how much pull Moz has in the organization... Given the current woeful state of the Cards' rotation, I can't imagine that our new GM is fond of either of the options LaRussa and Duncan must prefer: 1) sendinga young, cost-controlled starter with Reyes's potential (and who's had such a good spring) back to Memphis; or 2) shipping him off for 75 cents on the dollar so he can blossom with another organization, while the likes of Braden Looper are starting for us every fifth day.
by DCRedbird on Mar 25, 2008 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Amen. If the solution is for Reyes
to be pissed off at his coaches to pitch well, I say we find a reliable way to irritate the lad!
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 25, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Send Reyes an alarm clock
With Tony's voice "kid, you just ain't good enough for my team today"
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 25, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is anyone listening ...
to the bull-crud Hadley is spewing forth on KTRS right now about Reyes? ... he admits that Reyes is a pitcher with great ability, and knows he will a productive if not dominant ML hurler, but he wants to trade him! ... why the hell would you want to invest what this organization has invested in Reyes (innings and development wise, that is) and then give him away to someone else? It makes absolutely no sense, and is a completely stupid argument ... we need to keep this kid and continue his development here in St. Louis ... it's imperative that we continue to develop a lower cost pitching staff ... this should be obvious ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
because
brandon mccarthy got quite a bounty last year.
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
by FutureMan on Mar 25, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heh. True BUT
the bounty hasn't quite worked out.
by sdrone on Mar 25, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
talent
You can't question the talent though!
by ICbirdfan on Mar 25, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure - at the time
everyone though Williams robbed Texas.
by sdrone on Mar 25, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Danks and Massett
Massett looks to be really good and Danks may be pretty good as well.
by ICbirdfan on Mar 25, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We could turn Danks and Massett young talent
...into a seasoned veteran.
by bgh on Mar 25, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I like a lot of those young "failed" pitchers.......
I think there's a chance at least a few of them can turn it around---I'll go with Reyes, Danks, Jackson, Floyd, hell I'd even throw down for Kyle Davies. I expect 2 or 3 of the 5 to turn it around-soon.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 25, 2008 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I try not to listen to KTRS
Except when Shannon and Rooney are calling a game. I actually remember one night when Hadley was just going off on Kennedy and Reyes durring a game. And Reyes wasnt even pitching. They werent calling the game. Still upsetted me that they would talk down about players like that durring a game.
by Evilfrog on Mar 25, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why is Hadley on the radio?
So, that you can't see LaRussa's hand up his arse! He knows nothing about any of the games he follows! He wouldn't recognize Pujols' hitting ability if it weren't pointed out to him!
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fangraphs fun
In the 12.1 innings Reyes had in '05 his average fastball was 91.4, in '06/'07 it was 89.7/89.6. He threw 22.6% changeups in '06, 13.6% in '07 and replaced that with an extra 10% curves. His 60.3% strand rate was ridiculously low (81.4% at AAA).
Wainwright's fastball took a 2 mph hit from 91.4 to 89.4 in the transition but he threw exactly the same % of fastballs at 53.9%. Dropped his curve% and threw way more changeups basically as you'd expect.
Kip Wells is bad.
Troy Percival threw a ridiculous number of fastballs 76%. Explosive fastball even at 91.7 mph. I like having him on my fantasy team this year.
Mulder's fastball even in '05 was 87.9, it was actually 87.5 last year. If he really feels good this year that's encouraging.
Mike Maroth really did average 83 mph fastball.
Pineiro actually saw a 1 mph uptick across the board last year, although that's probably a result of 31 relief appearances.
Carpenter in '06 threw more than 40% cutters/curves. He had Tommy John surgery. Doubt that's unrelated.
Ryan Franklin threw a bunch of different stuff only a 46% fastball.
Russ Springer has had remarkably consistent stuff. 91.7, 91.7, 91.6 fastball velocity.
And my favorite, Joel Zumaya has AVERAGED 98.3 mph on his fastball.
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
by joker24 on Mar 25, 2008 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Reyes changeup
I still thing this is what led to his disasterous 2007. In 06 Bill James had Reyes listed as one of the top 10 in the NL in OPS vs pitch type (changeup). Now come the beginning of 07 and "I don't just have to get ground balls with my sinker, I can use the curve" and suddenly he is throwing more curves and fewer changeups.
So we had him give up his best pitch for his worst and wonder why he got hammered. The small drop in velocity from 05-06 could also be the change from 4seam to 2seam fastballs.
by DriverZn on Mar 25, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
RISP
One other comment, he was going to the curve with runners on to try to get double plays. Problem is that his curve isn't good. The hitters were jacking it for big innings.
With on one on when he wasn't trying hard to get grounders, surprise, they were not hitting him hard.
by DriverZn on Mar 25, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
cool beans
1) I did not know fangraphs had pitch type information.
2) it's kind of sad that I got excited about that.
3) It's interesting to note that Reyes completely gave up on his slider in 2007...
I'm still like to know what that pitch I saw him throw in spring training was (~5 march). It was thrown too hard to be a curve, but had a very tight, sharp break towards and in on a RH hitter (breaking the wrong direction to be a slider, and too sharply to be a slurve, unless I'm confused, which is totally possible). He only threw it twice and got a called strike both times IIRC, and didn't throw it at all the next time i saw him pitch. He had a bad outing that first day, but those two pitches really caught my eye...
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
by SleepyCA on Mar 25, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regardless a RHP breaking ball (curve, slider, slurve) will never break in to RHH
Sure it wasn't just a hard changeup?
#2. I was borderline giddy when they put that pitch info up. I've been playing with it for hours.
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
by joker24 on Mar 25, 2008 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think its his changeup
When he throws from his normal pitching action it has a lot of movement on it. When he tries to get up on top of his pitches it seems to flatten out.
by DriverZn on Mar 25, 2008 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
it seemed like a fastball except that it "jerked" down and in when it got about 15 feet from home plate. I would assume it's a lot harder to fool a fan in the stands with a changeup than a hitter, at least velocity-wise, since i was just observing and not trying to time a swing, and observing at a much better angle, and a change-up (i think) should move "down", (because it's slower, not because of aerodynamic effects) rather than "down and in"- though i guess because I was sitting to the RH batter's right side, it might have been an optical illusion. Still, the sharpness was the striking feature here, and that it moved the "wrong" way.
Then again, I haven't seen that many major league-caliber pitchers from that close up- one of the joys of spring training is getting seats in the section just to the right of home plate for ~$25 each, and then moving up to the 4th row when the old people leave- and I am obviously not a scout, just a random aero geek who lives in BFE desert and therefore watches 170 ball games a year on TV, so who knows. it might have been a boring 2-seamer that just surprised me because I'm ignorant of how awesome real life pitchers are. Though nothing anyone else threw, including perez, AW, izzy, Gregg, etc looked as awesome as those two pitches the whole week i was there.
If it was a 2-seamer, I can definitely understand why Duncan would want him to throw more of them...
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
by SleepyCA on Mar 26, 2008 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Most pitchers...
...naturally throw balls that tail towards their arm-side. This is a function of arm angle and the fact that most pitchers pronate to some degree at release (some more than others...super-hard pronation causes true sinkers, as opposed to two-seamers that are called sinkers, or screwballs depending on grip). When you throw a change, this armside run (as its called) is still there, but the decreased spin on the changeup causes it to drop more dramatically. So what you saw could still be a changeup. I wasn't watching myself so I couldn't tell you for sure obviously.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Mar 26, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs/Jimmy Buffett analogy
The only two times I have ever been around Wrigleyville in Chi-town (not in...never been in yet) there have been a Cubs series and a Jimmy Buffett concert weekend. That's eerie!
stlfan
by stlfan on Mar 25, 2008 5:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How about we release Looper and Clement
sign Claudio Vargas and put Reyes in the rotation?
Why the hell did the Brewers release Vargas with Gallardo's knee and Cappy's elbow, to go along with Ben Sheet's ticking timebomb?
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2008 6:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This is a very interesting proposition ...
I had the same thought myself when I read the Vargas story ... it should be reasonably considered ... based on what I'm hearing about Clement, I'm afraid he's not going to make it back effectively ... Looper ... well Looper I never considered a starter ... I really praise and respect him for putting up the numbers he did last year ... I think he over-achieved ... but to expect it again is pushing the envelope ... I still think he would be effective in long relief out of the pen ... but if it meant getting someone like Vargas ... release is a possiblity ... I don't think Card mgmt would go for it, though ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Navreson
The Brewers release of Vargas is baffling. Some think it's a partial salary dump. They will still owe him a portion of his contract, which is not large.
Basically, they think Narveson is a better option if they need depth.
Sheets, Suppan, Parra, Bush, Villanueva, with either Villanueva sent down or Parra back to AAA when Gallardo comes back from the DL.
Narveson...there's another knock on the front office decision of year's past IMO.
by RedbirdRay on Mar 25, 2008 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Narveson was released by Mo I beleive
Wasn't Narveson released this offseason by Mo? Seems odd to blame the old front office.
by StLHugo on Mar 25, 2008 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he wasn't released
he was a minor league free agent. We simply didn't re-sign him. We could have kept him by adding him to the 40 man, but obviously Jimenez was deemed more important to the future of the team.
And that might have been the right decision- Narvy was not exactly owning the PCL. At one time I thought he should have been put into the rotation for the '06 run (at the expense of Weaver) and that seemed to have worked out OK, and he was hurt most of last year...
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
by SleepyCA on Mar 25, 2008 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did say this winter
that I hoped not protecting Narveson wouldn't come back to haunt Cards. Nobody else commented on it though.
by ridgesee on Mar 25, 2008 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The more I think about this ...
the better the idea seems ... the news that Mulder is 'way ahead' of Clement for a potential return is not good news at all ... I'm afraid the Clement gamble is already a bust ... I hate to say it because I was really hoping the guy could help us out ... I even thought the season might hinge on it ... obtaining Vargas is a very interesting Plan B ... wouldn't it be nice to take advantage of a questionable move by a key competitor ... and wouldn't it be delicious to see Vargas beat the Brew Crew in Cards games with them ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The report was
that Clement's velosity was down but had a lot of movement on his pitches. If that is the case, all is not lost. He still can gain some velosity.
by ridgesee on Mar 25, 2008 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Casual Factors for the Disparate Run Support Between Reyes and Wondermeyer
There were several interesting subthreads that talked about possible factors for the significant difference in run support between Reyes and Thompson/Wellemeyer. Here is a quick summary of possible factors that several folks raised (I guess technically #3 is saying that there is no causal factor):
1. Psychological factor/leader/getting Cards’ hitters excited (jeffrw), i.e. relatively speaking, hitters were more excited when Wondermeyer were pitching
2. Early deficits/Big innings leading to Cards’ offense pressing (etp_stl), i.e. Reyes giving up early and large deficits that resulted in the offense pressing
3. Luck/randomness/spurious correlation (arch support), i.e. there is absolutely no correlation between run support and pitching
My quick thoughts on all 3:
1. I don’t want to discount the psychological factor, which I think could be valid. But it seems to me that it is very difficult to show that scientifically/statistically.
2. Some folks also posted some stats in support of this view which was interesting. This seems to be a likely factor that is backed up by some data.
3. The sample size problem is always an issue. So the question is whether 206 IP from Reyes and 520 IP from Wondermeyer is a statistically significant sample. Or if the argument is concerning games, then we have to look at the games started and remove innings in relief, which I don’t recall right now. I would say that the sample size does seem to be significant. (Can someone who is bored, actually compute the F-statistic between the ratio of variances between AR and Wondermeyer and the t-statistic between the mean run support and find out if it is significant?)
I guess I come away being somewhat convinced that Reyes might have been in some minor fashion responsible for his own lack of run support. I still hope that he can totally do a 180 and really start succeeding. I share others’ feelings that Reyes has a much higher ceiling than Wondermeyer, but that is only my personal hope.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Mar 25, 2008 7:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I did a little homework, and ...
I don't see anything that would make me believe the Cards were puckering when they saw Reyes was starting.
Reyes had 4 starts in April, and during those starts the Cards only scored 2 runs while he was pitching. On 2 occasions, they put up a 2-spot after Reyes left. In each of those cases, Reyes gave up enough runs to ensure defeat. So much for my hypothesis that the lack of scoring production caused his confidence to wain as the season went on.
Reyes had 4 starts in May. The first 2 starts the Cards were shutout. The next 2 they scored 7 (3 after he left) and then 4 (2 after he left) runs (more than enough to get it done). Reyes gave up 7 and 5, respectively (just enough to lose).
The Cards were shutout during Reyes' starts 6 times. Of those, 3 were in his first 8 starts, and 3 were in his last 8 starts. Each group of 8 had one start that the Cards didn't score until after Reyes left the game (both Cards losses).
The Cards scored 24 runs for his last 8 starts (about 3/game), as opposed to 17 runs for his first 8 (about 2/game).
Reyes held the opponent to only 1 or 2 runs in an outting 4 times, 2 at the end of June and 2 at the beginning of Aug. He corraled those with 2 5-run outtings before a 4 and 5-run outtings after.
He was typically given a standard lineup to work with (I was afraid he might be receiving too many of those 3rd day of the series lineups). He really only received 4 of those, and one of those resulted in one of his 2 winds.
In summary, his runs per game were worse at the beginning of the season (Apr 3.5, May 4.75) than later in the season (June, Aug, Sept were all 3). So, for postulated that somehow Reyes mentally folded later in the season, that doesn't seem to hold true. For those who postulated that the offense under-performed after repeated early holes, the offense actually produced more for him later in the year. I don't really see any correlational evidence to support the "psychology" factor. A pitcher that consistently gives up 3 runs or better per outting and averages only 5 innings per outting is probably not going to be a .500 pitcher. That said, the fact that he gave up the significant number of his runs in one inning of 10 out of 16 starts, should indicate that his problems are correctable. I also don't see how that has to do with not "finishing off an inning," or not having an "out pitch." It seems more likely a lack of consistent concentration.
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My theory...
is that the starting pitcher has an effect on the other player's subconcious, and effects how they play.
With Thompson, since he looks like he's 15, the rest of the team feels sad when they let him down offensively, so they do better.
Reyes, OTOH, with his weird cap, seems like a member of another team, and so the other players do worse.
by DiscoJer on Mar 25, 2008 7:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
HA!
That is hilarious!
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 25, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
chart
Can someone make a chart, really simple, of all the pitching performances Welley, Reyes, and Thompson had last year while starting and just put the number or earned runs per each outing and how many innings they pitched?
Who cares about the Ws, or runs scored
by jealousblues on Mar 25, 2008 9:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
FIP
I would be interested in their FIP per outing too if some one does take the time to do this.
by StLHugo on Mar 25, 2008 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did the research, but ...
I'm not sure how to get the info posted. If somebody can give me some pointers, I'll post that info. The quick synopsis (averages) are:
Player, IP(ave), ER(per IP ave), FIP(ave)
Reyes, 5.1, 3.3, 6.41
Thompson, 5.2, 2.82, 6.26
Wellemeyer, 4.2, 1.82, 5.57
So, actually, it looks like Wellemeyer was the better pitcher while he was in there; as long as your bullpen is well rested. Thompson gave up fewer runs over about the same number of innings when compared to Reyes.
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's a shot at it.
Player, Date, IP, ER, FIP
Reyes, 7-Apr, 5.00, 3.00, 3.20
16-Apr, 5.00, 3.00, 4.20
21-Apr, 6.00, 4.00, 3.70
27-Apr, 6.00, 4.00, 6.87
2-May, 6.00, 3.00, 2.53
7-May, 6.00, 2.00, 3.70
13-May, 5.00, 3.00, 3.00
19-May, 5.20, 7.00, 5.51
25-May, 5.20, 5.00, 7.05
17-Jun, 5.00, 5.00, 7.60
22-Jun, 4.10, 5.00, 3.44
27-Jun, 5.00, 2.00, 6.40
28-Jul, 6.00, 2.00, 4.53
2-Aug, 5.00, 3.00, 3.40
7-Aug, 7.00, 1.00, 3.06
12-Aug, 7.00, 2.00, 2.20
18-Aug, 4.00, 5.00, 6.70
23-Aug, 5.00, 0.00, 6.00
31-Aug, 1.00, 4.00, 31.20
12-Sep, 3.10, 3.00, 13.85
Welley, 30-May, 5.00, 3.00, 7.80
5-Jun, 3.20, 2.00, 6.33
10-Jun, 5.10, 4.00, 3.00
16-Jun, 3.10, 2.00, 8.04
20-Jun, 5.00, 2.00, 2.00
26-Jun, 6.00, 1.00, 3.03
3-Jul, 3.00, 4.00, 17.20
8-Jul, 5.00, 0.00, 4.80
18-Sep, 2.00, 1.00, 5.70
23-Sep, 5.00, 0.00, 1.80
28-Sep, 6.00, 1.00, 1.53
Thompson, 8-May, 5.00, 1.00, 5.60
14-May, 6.20, 3.00, 6.43
20-May, 5.20, 5.00, 6.47
26-May, 5.10, 3.00, 3.00
31-May, 7.10, 2.00, 3.48
6-Jun, 6.00, 4.00, 5.70
12-Jun, 4.10, 8.00, 7.59
19-Jun, 7.00, 1.00, 3.20
29-Jun, 6.00, 2.00, 5.20
4-Jul, 7.00, 4.00, 7.20
17-Jul, 6.00, 3.00, 6.37
22-Jul, 6.00, 2.00, 6.20
28-Jul, 3.00, 4.00, 10.20
9-Sep, 2.00, 2.00, 8.70
17-Sep, 3.10, 3.00, 13.85
22-Sep, 6.00, 1.00, 2.53
26-Sep, 6.00, 0.00, 4.70
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yours is better than mine but here it is anyway
reyes
date, ip, earned runs, result of the game (cards are on the right)
4/7, 5, 3, L5-1 (would have had to pitch a shutout
4/16, 5, 3, L3-2
4/21, 6, 4, L6-0 (no one could have won this game)
4/27, 6, 4, L5-3
5/2, 6, 3, L4-0 no decision (no one could have won)
5/7, 6, 2, L3-2
5/13, 5, 3, L3-0 (no one could have won)
5/19, 5.2, 7, L8-7
5/25, 5.2, 5, L5-4
6/17, 5, 5, W6-10 no decision
6/22, 4.1, 5, L6-0 (no one could have won)
6/27, 5, 2, L2-0 (no one could have won)
7/28, 6, 2, W2-5
8/2, 5, 3, L5-4 no decision
8/7, 7, 1, L4-0 (no one could have won)
8/12, 6, 2, W2-12
8/18, 6, 5, L5-3
8/23, 5, 0, L11-3 (didnt know you could be the loser with no earned runs_
8/31, 1, 4, L13-11 no decision
9/6, 2, 1, W 4-16 no decision (did he get hurt?)
9/12, 3.1, 3, L5-1
9/17, 1.1, 5, L13-11 no decision
looks to me like he started off strong, and then got beat down as the season went along
and then stunk at the end of the year.
Did he get sent down last year, I dont remember becasue he hardly pitched in june and july.
by the end of june weve scored 28 pts (18 if you remove ONE game) for reyes, in a total of 13 games over three months
five of his losses no one could have one since we didnt score a single run (plus one more shutout that resulted in a no decision)
im not saying Reyes is a great pithcer or pitched well last year, just that quoting his record is really, well dumb
because he pitched better than that. If this team is going to rebuild we needs guys like reyes to work out and get their chances
i think we are better off sticking with him for one more year, then let him go whatever...
************
and for fun here are his 2006 IP and ER's allowed
5.2, 0
6.1, 3 we lost
8, 1 we lost 1-0
5, 2, we lost 1-3
5, 5
5, 4
5, 2
5.1, 6
6, 3
5, 3
5, 0
3.1, 5
6.1, 0
2.1, 7
5.1, 2
6, 1
0.2, 4
by jealousblues on Mar 26, 2008 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
YUCK
I hate the beach boys...
but their justification was pretty good
by jealousblues on Mar 25, 2008 9:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow!
What a terrible fucking start for Reyes today. Better send his ass back to Memphis so he can work on...well, everything! I'd much rather have Wellemeyer and Thompson in the rotation -- neither of whom have EVER, in their entire major-league career, had 1 start as good as Reyes had today.
I'm sure Duncan and LaRussa will find something to bitch about -- how he got great defense or had good luck or how the Nats swung at bad pitches or were too anxious or the wind was blowing in or they played their "B" lineup or something. There'll be something to complain about, even if they have to make it up. Let's see more of Thompson and Wellemeyer, by golly!
by chuckb on Mar 25, 2008 9:46 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Boy, I nailed it
Today's article in the p-d about the Reyes start provides an interesting contrast in viewpoints from Dave Duncan -- "pitching coach extraordinaire" and Nats' manager, Manny Acta. Acta, BTW, is widely regarded as one of the best young managers in the game.
From Duncan -- "I'm still looking for Anthony to be able to do certain things, that when you face first division teams you can compete against them and have a legitimate chance to be successful," Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan said. "Certain things you need to be able to do, that I don't see Anthony doing." -- all this despite 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB!
From Acta -- "He threw the ball very well," Nationals manager Manny Acta said. "He was able to mix all his pitches and he had command of his fastball. He used both sides of the plate very well, so he's ready to go."
He's ready to go, all right. If you believe Duncan, he's ready to go back to Memphis.
by chuckb on Mar 25, 2008 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow.
Unbe-fucking-lievable.
I'm SO glad we have Duncan and LaRussa for the next 2 years while we rebuild during our "youth" movement. What a joke.
Ugh. This makes me sick. Mo should seriously start searching for a new manager and pitching coach. Like NOW.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on Mar 25, 2008 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sick and tired of this shit
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
by Mr Redbird on Mar 25, 2008 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah,
I'm so sick of this shit I could cry.....WAIT A MINUTE...I CAN'T CRY......THERE'S NO CRYING IN BASEBALL!
by ridgesee on Mar 25, 2008 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clap, Clap, Clap.....
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 25, 2008 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Manny Acta is regarded as a great manager because his performance last year
was nothing short of miraculous. How he managed to keep that rag tag thrown together on the fly team out of the cellar was a fine piece of managing. He did it because he didn's sit around and worry about what they couldn't do; he found out what they could do and plugged everyone in.
He sure sounds like he ain't scared of Reyes' record in 2007. Why would he be? He's more concerned with what he might do for him now. He's had a lot a success with other teams "problems" and failures. It would be a good fit for Mr. Reyes, me thinks. Strauss said there were 20 scouts there today. I think trading him is stupid; it appears it is necessary though.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 25, 2008 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade Reyes to the Nats
along with Izturis for Felipe Lopez and someone like John Lannan. Reyes and FLop both need changes of scenery and the Cards could use a SS with more upside. They'd get another young arm. Reyes would be welcomed with a parade here in DC.
by jdonels on Mar 25, 2008 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
confused
so do you want him traded or not?
earlier you said "They should NOT under any circumstances, send him to AAA. Send him to St. Louis with the big club, or out of town. He just completed 10 straight scoreless innings. I know it's a small sample size, but so is everyone else's. He's near the top of this competition. But he lost.
Mr. Mozeliak trade him. I'm prepared to bring this point up every single day"
but in this comment you think trading him is stupid; so which is it?
by the way, as far as the discussion about you bringing up reyes every day; i may not agree with you at all times, but i feel you should have the right to say whatever you like about it, as long as it is within the guidelines, which as far as i know, you have always been
this situation reminds me of a quote, of which i have no idea who said it; "i may not agree with you, but i would fight to the death for your right to say it"
Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.
by bigcardsfan5 on Mar 25, 2008 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Famous quote
That would be "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."
Commonly mis-attributed to Voltaire, it does not actually appear in any of his writings. The phrase is now believed to have been penned by Beatrice Hall as a theoretical quote in her effort to epitomize Voltaire's attitude.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on Mar 26, 2008 5:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't want him traded; but they are never going to use him.
It makes no sense to put him in AAA. They are only risking him getting injured. If they won't use him now, they never will.
And, I'll add I think Mr. Duncan needs to just stop talking. He sounds like an idiot.
That's it from me. I've said I'll I'm going to say.
Now let's see if I can stick to that.
You all have a nice day.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 26, 2008 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ha!
It's like they're just saying things to rile people up now. How ridic.
"Say something once, why say it again?"
by Alxfritz on Mar 25, 2008 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not smart from an organizational standpoint. You never, never, never,
disparge a player in the press. It is bad all around.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 25, 2008 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not smart.
It sure doesn't seem like the right way to talk up a guy's trade value, does it?
by etp_stl on Mar 25, 2008 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Um, they already did. Go see Matthew Leach's piece at CardinalsMLB.com
They did mention the wind blowing in, and that he was facing an inferior pithcer in Odalis Perez. Perez hasn't been a good pitcher for awhile, although he's very adequate as a #5. What the flip does that have to do with anything? He put up zero. What he's saying just makes him sound stupid. The last time out held the Braves scoreless in 4. Against Mike Hampton, who has looked like the pitcher he used to be this spring. I guess in Bizzaroduncanworld that doesn't count.....
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 25, 2008 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That article by Leach
almost made me puke! Reyes' last outing was better than this one but still not good enough to beat out Thompson or Wellemeyer. Again, I'm still blown away by the fact that Duncan was lauding Wellemeyer's ability to "control pitch counts" the other day. Wellemeyer's career BB/9 is over 5 and last year it was over 4 w/ the Cards. At the time, he had walked 9 in 12 spring training innings. It's like Duncan is living in a different world from everybody else.
BTW, where was Duncan a couple of weeks ago when Reyes was hurt, twice, by winds blowing out pretty severely? Did he make excuses for him then? But he intends to punish him for winds blowing in? Geesh! Hey Dave...what color is the sky in your world?
by chuckb on Mar 25, 2008 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nauseated
I felt sick reading the Duncan quotes in the Leach article, too.
Leach article is here
First, this screams rationalization for the decision they've already made. Second, why run the guy down needlessly?
Besides the "wind" quotes, I hated the twisted logic of "Odalis Perez was doing pretty good for five innings, if I remember right, and he's not exactly a top of the rotation guy. " Because Cardinals hitters couldn't hit Odalis Perez today, therefore Reyes is not a "top of the rotation guy"? And no one is claiming top of the rotation anyway.....
This is one of the worst constructed "rationales" I've ever seen.
by ncgostl on Mar 25, 2008 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shame on both of them
it's like Dave is stomping his feet screaming "No, no, no...listen to me, damnit" The hubris of these guys is out of control.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2008 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
First of all,
it sure looks like Acta was referring to his own pitcher Odalis Perez when he made his statement of praise. Second, I think that Duncan's comment about the wind was essentially saying that the reason Perez did well was that the wind was blowing in. So, while both pitchers might not have had great stuff/control/what-have-you, they had great results. As such, he thought Reyes actually pitched better the start before when his bottom line looked a little worse. That sounds reasonable to me. There is so much clamoring for not taking W-L and ERA too far, which I agree with, but when someone tries to objectively interpret results in a way that is unpopular with some, here comes the curse train! I have mixed feelings about Reyes, but now it seems whenever someone thinks that Reyes was in some way not great, all of his supporters seem to get angry. And for those citing stats of great pitchers who did poorly at first, there are many more pitchers who did poorly early in their careers and never came close to having a good career. I know that Reyes has had some great minor league numbers and has pitched well this spring, but he wouldn't be the first prospect to fizzle out. It is not inevitable that he would be a good pitcher in a different situation, or even probable. I am afraid that if Reyes really does not get everything together, Tony and Dave will bear the responsibility in many people's eyes. Just my two cents.
by Shi on Mar 26, 2008 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The wind was blowing in...
Did you see the way It grabbed Ludwicks ball and kept it in the field? Man that should have been a no doubt home run. Instead it feel infront of the Left Fielder.
by Evilfrog on Mar 26, 2008 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pasionate
I can't believe how pasionate we all are about not very good pitchers! I love the fire and the passion though!
The Cardinals right now have one good pitcher and his name is Adam Wainwright. I can't really passionately back anyone else, you know why? because they ain't very good!
by ICbirdfan on Mar 25, 2008 11:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps...
BUT...he may be the best of the not-very-good ones we do have!
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on Mar 25, 2008 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the way, Larry...
Lost in all the Reyes hubbub, I wanted to say that I agree with your take on the Hummel article completely. It's either criminally ignorant (of baseball 101), or completely disingenuous.
Either way, Hummel just lot a ton of credibility for me. Not that he'll lose any sleep over that being a HOFer and all, but still...very disappointing.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on Mar 25, 2008 11:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
season hasn't begun
and we already have the full blown reye debate...yuck...reyes did nothing new today sorry he showed signs..whens the last time "the kid" put a tring of good starts together. I was against the late season shuffling of him last yr i was ll for letting him come outta the pen when they were out of it.
I love to hate this debate there no middle ground..You have the LaDunc is Satan debate and they srcewed the kid and the team tanked runs stuff or the other group of get rid of him now..there seems to be no middle ground.
even when they part with him thsi wont be over
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
by punchinjudy on Mar 25, 2008 11:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
On the contrary
The season has Begun, Oakland up 4-1 in the 6th. Boston up 1-0 in the first series of the season.
by StLHugo on Mar 26, 2008 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Oakland
wins the second game of the season, 5-1.
by cardsgirl95 on Mar 26, 2008 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
for st louis it has not
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
by punchinjudy on Mar 26, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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