sim mania
by lboros on Mar 24, 2008 8:51 AM EDT
117 comments
tangotiger is running a very cool experiment on clutch hitting; i urge you all to participate.
the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog’s annual Diamond Mind Blowout has become one of my favorite spring traditions; 2008 marks the 4th year RLWY has crunched the numbers in this fashion. if you’re not familiar w/ the Blowout, RLWY takes various sets of projection data for the upcoming season --- PECOTA, ZIPS, bill james, etc etc --- plugs them into the Diamond Mind simulation game, and runs 1,000 full-season simulations for each set of data. then it rolls the results from all the different projections into a single database comprising several thousand simulated seasons. all the usual disclaimers apply --- projections are not 100 percent accurate, the game is played by people not computers, the projections all had st louis losing to detroit in the ’06 world series, blah blah blah. all acknowledged up front. they’re only projections; don’t take ’em too seriously.
the Blowout had a very good year in 2007. take the nl central --- here are RLYW’s predicted w-l records, vs the actual results:
| RLYW | ACT’L | |
|---|---|---|
| cubs | 84 | 85 |
| mil | 81 | 83 |
| stl | 84 | 78 |
| hou | 80 | 73 |
| cin | 73 | 72 |
| pitt | 73 | 68 |
didn’t miss the mark by much on any team. indeed, RLYW’s projected win total in 2007 was within 3 games of the actual total for half of the big-league clubs; it was off by 10 games or more for only 3 (seattle, colorado, and minnesota). full results of last year’s projection are at this link; you have to scroll down about halfway to get the final, all-in-one projection.
ok, enough preliminaries. for the Blowout this year, RLYW ran simulations for six different sets of data --- PECOTA, ZIPS, CHONE, Diamond Mind, Hardball Times, and CAIRO (which is RLYW’s own, brand-new projection system). they played the 2008 season 6,000 times --- so many times that it took 2 separate posts to present all the results (part 1 here, part 2 here). in the final, aggregate projection (see part 2), the cardinals won the division a little less than 10 percent of the time --- 503 times, to be exact. sounds about right to me. they also won 130 wild cards, so they made the playoffs about 11 percent of the time. their mean average record? 78-84 --- exactly what the VEB community projected a couple weeks back. indeed, we as a community are almost in lockstep w/ RLYW for the entire nl central:
| RLYW | VEB | |
|---|---|---|
| cubs | 88 | 88 |
| mil | 85 | 88 |
| stl | 78 | 78 |
| cin | 77 | 81 |
| hou | 75 | 75 |
| pitt | 70 | 70 |
4 out of 6, right on the nose; the wisdom of crowds strikes again. over the 6,000 sims, the cards averaged 762 runs per season (10th best in the national league) and 784 runs allowed (9th best). the st louis pitching staff comes off as being not much worse than chicago’s (31-run difference) or milwaukee’s (9 runs). the thing that separates the cards from the division leaders is their much weaker offense --- they’re 60 runs worse than either chicago or milwaukee per this exercise.
here are the cards’ average won-loss records, broken out by individual projection system (1,000 sims for each system):
| DM | ZIP | PEC | CHO | THT | CAI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83 | 78 | 73 | 76 | 80 | 80 |
PECOTA and Diamond Mind see things quite a bit differently, no? in the entire exercise, there were only 4 cases in which two projection systems differed by 10 games or more on a given team.
alright, so much for that. a few other random notes:
- was i the only one unaware that cliff politte is still in the running for a roster spot. cliff politte??? he’s got a 9.00 era so far this spring, didn’t play last year, had an 8.70 era in 2006 . . . if he doesn’t got the slot, chances are it’ll go to kelvin jimenez (7.50 era last year, 4.50 this spring). one of these two will make the team because both thompson and wellemeyer are in the rotation, leaving the bullpen bereft; in essence, tony / dave are opting for politte / jimenez over anthony reyes. another triumph for player development. . . .
- which is more painful --- playing for tony la russa or having your fingernail ripped off? only scott rolen knows for sure.
- and it’s a good thing they didn’t trade roles for chris capuano, eh?
- kip wells failed in his bid to make the rockies’ opening day rotation, losing out to mark redman (7.62 era last season) . . . . .
- mozeliak speaks to the Belleville News Democrat.
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Politte/Jimenez
I am hoping the reason that one of them makes the rotation is that when the first injured starter comes back they will be the first to go before optioning McClellan/Perez down (I think McC is making the team over CP right now).
by StLHugo on Mar 24, 2008 9:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Reyes
I don't think it's a situation where LaRussa/Duncan are optioning for Politte/Jimenez as Reyes isn't going to be put in the bullpen. I think the more likely scenario is that they are putting Thompson/Wellemeyer in the rotation instead of Reyes, as both of those guys could be put in the bullpen.
by saladdays on Mar 24, 2008 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't mention Reyes
I didn't say anything about Reyes. If Reyes doesn't make the rotation, which is the current projection, than there are 2 bullpen holes for RH. Once a starter or Kinney comes back than someone has to go. I think Jimenez or Politte is being positioned to be that guy that has to go.
by StLHugo on Mar 24, 2008 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
saladdays, the choice really is between politte / jimenez or reyes
welley and thompson are going to be on the roster no matter what --- either as starters or as relievers. reyes will only be on the roster as a starter; politte / jimenez, only as relievers.
by using welley / thompson both as starters, tony/dave create an opening for a reliever (ie politte or jimenez). if they used either welley or thomp as a reliever instead, they'd create an opening for a starter (ie reyes).
by lboros on Mar 24, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
I think it is two separate decisions.
First, Who of the three gets the two rotations spots? Reyes, Thompson, Wellemeyer. This has been "decided" as Thompson and Wellemeyer, even though I disagree with it that is what sets up decision 2.
Second, who gets the remaining bullpen spots? This is where Jimenez and Pollite come into play.
by StLHugo on Mar 24, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
I think the point that Larry was making was that it SHOULDN'T be two separate decisions.
You can clearly do it that way, and it would appear Tony and Dave have. However, isn't it better for the club overall if you look at ALL the options?
For example, using arbitrary numbers only to make the point, let's say that Welly is considered +2 as a starter and +3 as a bullpen guy, Thompson is +2 as a starter and +2 as a bullpen guy, Reyes is +1 as a starter and -3 as a bullpen guy, while Jiminez and Politte are both -3 as starter and -2 as bullpen.
Using these arbitrary numbers, the best combo would be to start Thompson and Reyes, with Welly in the pen (2+1+3 = +6). All the other possible combos are less favorable for the team. Since Jiminez and Politte are negative contributors, the overall effect on the club is a negative if you decide that neither Welly nor Thompson can be used in the pen.
In short, even if Tony/Dave consider either Welly or Thompson a marginally better starter than Reyes, by refusing to consider using all of their assets more flexibly, they are creating a False Dilemma and hurting the club overall. For someone who clearly loves to use players in multiple roles as much as LaRussa does, this sort of surprisingly intractable thinking is baffling...as was evident last year with their stubborn refusal to even consider moving Franklin from the pen to a starting position, despite our critical need for another starter.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on Mar 24, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
putting Wellemeyer and Thompson in the rotation
leaves the bullpen bereft? Doesn't it leave the rotation bereft as well?
by chuckb on Mar 24, 2008 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MLB Website updated
The official site has been updated, graphically that is.
Matt Leach, how do you enjoy your new digs?
by StLHugo on Mar 24, 2008 9:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
whose picture is up there at the top of the spring strikeout leaders?
is that... that Reyes guy? send him down, he's no good!
by madding on Mar 24, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well after todays game...
It's Thompson. :)
by Evilfrog on Mar 24, 2008 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
website
Anyone know how to access the old top plays archive that used to be on the website? I used to watch Waino throw that sick curve to beltran or So Taguchi's game 2 shot to cheer me up sometimes.
by RVAcardsfan on Mar 24, 2008 9:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ditto RVAcardsfan's thanks
I've been looking for that as well, because sometimes you NEED to see a slick fielding play or Albert launch one out of the park or you will lose all hope.
by cardsgirl95 on Mar 24, 2008 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any idea
if they will continue to update as in the past? I run a Cardinals fan club at the school I teach at and I always like to show the kids the weeks top plays
"There is one word in America that says it all, and that one word is, 'You never know.'" Joaquin Andujar
by Big Mike on Mar 24, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Today
Here is today's link http://mlb.mlb.com/mediacenter/index.jsp#20080324 it should be kept up to date just like it has been. One thing you might have to change though is your media player plugin. MLB.com just went to Silverlight (Microsoft's replacement for embedded Media Player)
by StLHugo on Mar 24, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The new look
isn't Firefox-friendly, which is happening more and more these days. Probably has something to do with the tie-in to Microsoft.
If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something.
by cardsrul on Mar 24, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to defend MS
But I have no clue what you are talking about. The new look is perfect for me in FF. And the "tie in with MS" you are talking about is a bit off the mark. All they did was switch from Media Player, which they were using last year, to Silverlight. They could have chosen Quicktime or anything else but they didn't, I doubt this was a "tie in with MS" or some grand conspiracy against FF.
by StLHugo on Mar 24, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is talking about using the video playing software
and he is right. I have no trouble with MLB.tv in IE but it is all screwey in FF.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 24, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, thank you
that's what I was talking about. I wasn't talking about any grand conspiracy...
If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something.
by cardsrul on Mar 24, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry then
I mistook what you meant. I have had issues in the past with the video at work but not at home as far as I can recall. I will have to look into it tonight.
by StLHugo on Mar 24, 2008 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, just test it
I just tested the top plays thing in FF and had no issue at all with it playing correctly. I have never had MLB.tv so I can't say about that.
by StLHugo on Mar 24, 2008 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
According to
The "Commish," McClellan is likely to make the club.
So the Opening Day rotation is likely to be Wainwright, Wellemeyer, Looper, Loshe, and Thompson; with Izzy, Franklin, Springer, Flores, Villone, and McClellan in the pen... Assuming a 13-man pitching staff, that means there's a possibility that both Jimenez and Politte could make the club.
I'm hoping that McClellan is slated to be the "long" reliever out of the 'pen... that would open up a spot for Chris Perez, who is probably better than Politte and Jimenez combined... but what do I know?
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Mar 24, 2008 10:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Politte and Jiminez combined?
So a pitcher with a 14.00 ERA and a 2.50 WHIP?
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mar 24, 2008 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
seeing him yesterday
i have to say he looked pretty darn good. his fastball was averaged about 90 and touched 92. nice sharp, biting curveball. i'm no pitching mechanic, but he looked good. balanced, repeatable delivery. good arm action.
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle."
by erik on Mar 24, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sidenote
I love generic story lines that aren't really true at all: from an ESPN fantasy piece about Rick Ankiel "he simultaneously struggled to adapt to breaking pitches" which is hilariously wrong. Firejoemorgan has made me wonder whether there's just a generic form for all sports writers to use when talking about all the situations in baseball.
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
by joker24 on Mar 24, 2008 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yes, that cracks me up
but it's not just sportswriters; plenty of commenters, even here, have declared that Ankiel needs to hit in the #2 lineup spot since he'd "see more fastballs there".
For those who didn't click the link, Ankiel does much better against the other stuff, except for those pesky sliders. Of course, that's not comprehensive; pitch/fx isn't installed in every park that ankiel hit in last year, but so far all the evidence we have so far says that you don't want to throw a curve ball to rick ankiel.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
by SleepyCA on Mar 24, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More disclaimers being the tool used to identify pitches isn't perfect either
But it is at least good at distinguishing between off-speed stuff and fastballs. It's definitely pretty clear his problems are holes in his swing not inability to hit off-speed.
With no evidence to the contrary, Colby Rasmus is clutch
by joker24 on Mar 24, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he did a pretty good job
handling el duque's eephus pitch the other day. pitchers, take note. don't throw rick an eephus!
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle."
by erik on Mar 24, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
SHHHHHHHHH
Pitchers!!!!! Rick gets totally overconfident when you throw him an eephus!!! He'll swing ahead of it like crazy!!!!
Please, trust me!!
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mar 24, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Young Musial's a low-baller.
It looks like that information says he prefers stuff down in the strike zone (curve, sinker, split), and that he is going to have trouble up in the strike zone. Sounds pretty typical of LH power hitter. I would venture to guess that chart is pretty accurate.
by etp_stl on Mar 24, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Gameday link for today is ...
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2007/gd.html?2008_03_24_slnmlb_minmlb_1&brand=mlb
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Brian Barton
batting third. I think he's made the team.
by liam on Mar 24, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're right ...
I believe he'll start too, depending on lefty/righty splits ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He looked great yesterday
smart play on the basepath and a nice swing to hit one to the wall. It'll be interesting to see how TLR uses him during the year.
(Also, thank you Juan Gonzalez's abdominal muscle.)
by azruavatar on Mar 24, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
big ups to jaun gone's abs!
It happened on a Sunday afternoon, August 22, 1982.
by Glenn Brummer stole home on Mar 24, 2008 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm beginning to think ...
that we don't lose that much when LaRue starts for Molina ... he's thrown a lot of guys out ... I used to cringe when Bennett was in there ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Izturis in his last 7 games
Cesar Izturis shows signs of getting rid of the rust and coming around not only in the field (3 outstanding fielding plays yesterday and a fourth play that Mets radio announcers raved about as "magical").
Izturis has also gotten on base in 7 straight games. In those games, against ML pitchers (now that most minor leaguers have been cut), Izturis has 22 PA's, 6 hits, including his second triple of the spring, 2 walks, 6 runs scored, and 3 RBI's. His OBP over those 7 games has been a respectable .333.
by CardsWin on Mar 24, 2008 1:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's what Spring is for ... shaking off the rust ...
and it appears he's doing it ... I compared his 2008 Spring stats with Eckstein's so far ... neither is really setting the world on fire ...
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
3. C Izturis STL SS 17 49 9 9 0 2 0 3 13 4 6 2 0 .245 .265 .184
4. D Eckstein TOR SS 15 38 4 7 3 0 1 7 13 3 1 0 0 .279 .342 .184
But yeah ... I'd rather have Eck on my team ...
By the way ... here's the defensive numbers for each this Spring ...
Player TEAM POS G GS INN TC PO A E DP PB SB CS RF FPCT
Izturis STL SS 17 17 109.0 80 21 52 7 10 --- --- --- 6.03 .913
Eck TOR SS 15 15 69.0 34 11 23 0 4 --- --- --- 4.43 1.000
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Izturis vs. Eckstein
If Cesar has an OBP of .330 or higher this year, I believe he'll be more valuable than David because of Cesar's superior glove, range, and arm. But I know David's scrappy, all-out play and his amiable presence will be missed by a lot of fans.
by CardsWin on Mar 24, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Small chance...
In 7 seasons of being in the majors, he never posted an OBP higher than .330, he hit .330 once.. Most other years he's right around the .300 level.
But hey, a week of spring training games means a lot more than his 7 year career stats.
by DiscoJer on Mar 24, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You need to take into account...
that the Cards have lost a significant amount of range at the 3B position. The significant improvement in arm and range at the SS position is not a nicety, it is essential. I doubt that Izturis is going to have any kind of career offensive year, so I wouldn't expect any significant jump. Defensively, though, I expect playing every day to have a positive impact, and that's why he's here. All accounts are that Ryan will put up better offensive numbers, but that he has been shakiest defensively at SS.
by etp_stl on Mar 24, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Izturis walks and singles with 2 RBI's in first two PA's today
Make that an 8-game streak of Izturis getting on base. OBP during that streak is up to .385.
by CardsWin on Mar 24, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Izturis has .407 OBP over his last 8 games
Izturis draws his second walk today. On base three times in 3 PA's.
by CardsWin on Mar 24, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Izturis' Defense
I was at the Thurs-Sat games at Roger Dean and thought Izturis looked solid defensively. Listened to the game on the last leg of the trip home yesterday afternoon and it sounded like he's getting comfortable playing short everyday. To say I'm excited for the season to start and to watch this team play every day is a massive understatement. It'd be something to see Izturis show up this year as an elite defensive shortstop like Grudz did at second for us a few years back.
by liam on Mar 24, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best Rivalries in Baseball
Fox sports has this list up and the cubbie/Cardinal rivalry should be first. I know we have all seen these lists before but for national press it's not bad.
I about fell out of my chair laughing when I watched his link to the rising frat-boy quotient at Wrigley Field. Cub fans are one of a kind, I'm just not sure what kind that is.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Mar 24, 2008 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And he has it wrong about how long the two cities have it for each other
It's been since Stephen A. Douglass essentially started the civil war in order to route railroads through Chicago rather than St. Louis in 1854.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mar 24, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
The Diamond Minds simulated the opposite of what my gut says. While I agree with the record, I though it would be the pitching, not the offense that would hold the Cards back this season. Duncan, Barton, Ankiel and Glaus seem like a clear upgrade over Juan, Rolen, and Edmonds last season.
by JMedwick on Mar 24, 2008 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
garbage in, garbage out
The players we are sending to St Louis this year have to be an incredibly tough group of players for a computer to accurately predict. For instance, zips thinks ankiel is going to be a .241/.285/.458 ballplayer in '08. That's a solid 100-200 points of OPS lower than he'll really do, which will make a big difference, on the order of 20 runs all by itself.
Ludwick, Duncan and Glaus will likely all do better than their projections as well.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
by SleepyCA on Mar 24, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
methinks
ZIPS is averaging the chances of Ankiel having success or completely flaming out. Something similar is probably happening for the likes of Mulder, Piñeiro and Clement. Hopefully, these guys can get things together.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mar 24, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WonderBrad
Gameday shows Thompson only needing 23 pitches to get through the first 3 innings. Only five pitches were balls, and he has a walk, which means four of them were in that at-bat.
Takeaway: Dude is throwing a lot of strikes right now.
by effin fisk on Mar 24, 2008 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Er...
Gameday isn't actually showing real pitch counts yet, is it? I thought it was still just showing the bare minimum based upon the actual result: 4 balls if it was a walk, 3 strikes for a SO, and only 1 pitch if put into play, no matter how many actual pitches it took.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on Mar 24, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes and No
Certain games get the full treatment this one isn't getting it.
by StLHugo on Mar 24, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
C'mon Izturis ... come through ...
in a baseloaded at bat ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Way to go Izturis ...
He comes through with a 2 run single ... excellent ... we did not run the bases very well that inning ... it could've been a bigger one ... but I'll take three ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rotoworld: Troy Glaus write up
best write-up from those guys I've seen in awhile.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 24, 2008 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Belleville News-Democrat
I love the hard-hitting headline:
"Mozeliak enjoys job as Cardinals' general manager"
by effin fisk on Mar 24, 2008 2:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Another good at bat for Izturis ...
worked a walk on a bunch of pitches ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Twins broadcasters are ripping
the Cards pretty hard.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 24, 2008 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, they sound like a couple of bozos to me ...
That's ok ... we're ripping them on the field ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Angels also wear red, I guess...
The announcers just referred to us as the Angels. I don't think they know much about the senior circuit.
by blehmann on Mar 24, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could understand being mistaken
for the Angels last year, but Edmond & Sparkplug are gone.... but no big deal.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 24, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They're ripping the middle ...
the usual stuff about Izturis and Kennedy's defense ... now they're saying how easy it will be to bat around Albert since Ankiel, Duncan and Ludwick will be easy outs ... they're just being assholes ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's true they are pitching around the 3 spot today
But it is not working for them.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 24, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They were reading the piece about how
we are an awful team with an awful farm system and they read the part involving the quotes from scouts.
They then went into further detail with their own opinions of how bad we are.
What I'm tired of hearing is how this team has no speed. Barton, Ankiel, Skippy, Ludwick, Izturis, Ryan all have above average speed and will all see significant playing time. Rasmus as well. Duncan and Pujols are both very good baserunners. I'll give them Glaus and Molina, though.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 24, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would not call Duncan
a good base runner, but agree with most of what you say.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 24, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They also followed it up
by saying that all NL 7-9 hitters (excluding pitchers) are below average and worse than AL lineup hitters.
Their obviously appealing to the home audience.
you can't sneak the sun past the rooster
by enoscountry on Mar 24, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"below average and worse than AL lineup"
uh... DUH!
That is not directed at you enouscountry.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 24, 2008 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what's funny
is that (at least in '07) OPS for NL 7-8 hitters were better than AL 7-8 hitters. From B-R:
AL NL
7 .745 .737 (adv AL 8 points)
8 .665 .703 (adv NL 38 points)
7-9 non-p .698 .713 (adv NL 15 points)
ack- "code" doesn't work anymore. How do you format tables in the new setup?
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
by SleepyCA on Mar 24, 2008 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Surprised, but maybe I shouldn't be
Pinch hitters and walks to the no. 8 guy probably skew those numbers to the N.L. favor. Thanks SleepyCA.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 24, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now they're ripping Barton ...
They just said that "based on what we've seen TODAY, we don't see how Barton has done enough to make this team" ... what a bunch of clowns ... this after he just got a single ... he immediately stole second after they said it ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
by their reasoning
they must think Delmon Young will be cut too.
these guys have no credibility.
you can't sneak the sun past the rooster
by enoscountry on Mar 24, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well you have to say something
To cheer up the home crowd when you lose by 4 points. Though If the Rooney and Shannon start talking about how the Cards are getting whipped by a bunch of scrubs, I dont know how much that would cheer me up...
by Evilfrog on Mar 24, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They had trouble
remembering which players were on what base. Facts just aren't their strong suit.
by cardsgirl95 on Mar 24, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another good at bat for Izturis ...
worked a walk on a bunch of pitches ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 2:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
gameday delays
gameday is only updating once per inning for me.
lame.
by effin fisk on Mar 24, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well..... this is "Their" Spring Training
before they unleash it to the "normal" crowd. At least it's something.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 24, 2008 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great start for Brad ...
that's two strong outings in a row ... his ERA is 2.76 ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 2:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Good job Mo
on holding out for something better than Caps. Also, get better Scotty. Having your fingernail ripped off sounds like something from Hostel.
Rasmus or bust.
by Zoop on Mar 24, 2008 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Duncan and LaRussa?
I just caught the tail-end of a comment by the announcers. They said something along the lines of "I doubt Duncan will be sitting next to LaRussa on the bus ride home." Didn't sound serious but rather like an amusing anecdote.
by blehmann on Mar 24, 2008 4:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
because of the 9th?
Perez doing a "Izzy" thing will drive a manager to drink..... don't do it Tony!
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 24, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
7 RBI's today with 2 outs
Hope they keep that going into the regular season.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 24, 2008 4:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
clutchiness
I'd be curious to know which player or players everyone thought showed clutchitude other than Albert in Tango's poll?
I gave Yadi a "good" based a sample size of 2 (Game 7 2006 NLCS, game against the Reds I attended in 2007).
by lightbulb on Mar 24, 2008 4:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's a wiener ... and 9 of the last 11 ...
With the Spring almost past, started looking at some simple runs for/against type stuff ... as of right now, for the entire Spring (26 games)...
We've scored 140 runs and given up 126 ... that's 5.2 per game scored and 4.8 against ...
In the first 14 games, however, the split is ...
57 runs scored, 89 against, which averages to 4.1 for and 6.3 against ...
In the last 12 games, the split is ...
84 runs for, and 36 against, which averages 7.0 for and 3.2 against ...
At least we're moving in the right direction ... the final tally I did was this:
When scoring 3 runs or less, we're 0-5-2,
When scoring 4 runs, were 1-1,
When scoring 5 runs, were 2-2,
When scoring 5 runs, were 4-1
When scoring 7 runs, were 6-1
Be nice to win some low scoring close games, but not sure we have the staff right now to do it ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 24, 2008 5:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Josh Kinney
I'm kind of new to this here...so excuse me asking a question a lot of you know the answer to. When is Kinney projected to return?
by RVAcardsfan on Mar 24, 2008 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What I've heard is
2-3 weeks behind Mulder, so late May or early June. Any better info is welcome.
by etp_stl on Mar 24, 2008 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Random Inquiry
I've got a question based on the following hypothetical situation:
Cards are leading in a 3-2 game, top of the 8th inning. Visitors have runners on first and third with one out. There is a deep fly ball to the OF, that will clearly land in foul territory.
My question is what is the better play:
(1) Catch the ball, the runner tags and scores, game tied 3-3, 2 outs with the runner on first; or
(2) Let the ball land foul, remains one out with runners on first and third, keep the one run lead late in the game, and hope for a strike out or double play ball.
I've debated this with a couple of friends lately. My gut says that late in the game like that, you are better off to preserve your lead. Also, for as many games as I've watched over the years, I'm not sure I've ever seen the scenario play out.
Its not a giant deal, but I'd like to see some responses.
by mwinf12 on Mar 24, 2008 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Make the catch and try to gun him down at the plate. The next pitch could leave the park.
by Evilfrog on Mar 24, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
calling SABR-minded folks...
One of this blog's many number-crunching readers must have access to some win probability stats that might help us answer this question ... anyone?
My own hunch is that it's better not to pass up any chance at an out ... but this is why it's great to have things like win probability stats -- to test our hunches against real-world outcomes.
by DCRedbird on Mar 24, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the answer here depends on a lot that isn't specified in the question
How is the arm on the guy making the catch? How fast is the runner on third? Who is up for the Cardinals in the ninth? How reliable is the cards' pitcher? Can they replace him with someone else?
Is the foul ball to the left or right side?
'Cause if it's Ankiel throwing out adam dunn...
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mar 24, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question is more generic. . .
Assume that the catch will result in a run regardless of the person catching and the person running.
The nuts and bolts of the question is your feeling re: giving up a lead late in a game, or clutching onto it at the expense of an out.
by mwinf12 on Mar 24, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Then win expectancy says that you let the pitch land foul
Win expectancy for down by one, eighth innning, first and third, one out, is .502
tied game, eighth inning, first base, two out is .572.
So, allowing that run to score would reduce the Cardinals chance of winning from 49.8% to 42.8%
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mar 24, 2008 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
doesn't sound right
It doesn't sound right that a team with four outs remaing and a runner on first should have a 57 percent of winning when the other team has six outs remaining.
When I use the win expectancy calculator, here's what I get: first and third, down by one, one out, the opponent's win probability is .379. With two out and a tie score and a runner on first, the opponent's win probabilty is .412.
So I agree with Val on the bottom line (though I find it counterintuitive) but with different numbers.
by DCGreg on Mar 24, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It depends on which team is the home team, I think
Tie game in the 9th is one of the few situations where homefield advantage can play a big difference, i think, because the home team always gets a chance to rally, no matter what the away team does in the top of the 9th.
Look up, bases empty, ninth inning--the home team has a .656 win expectancy, while the away team has a .522. So I was using home numbers and you were using away numbers, methinks.
But I think the answer is that, late in a one run game, it's not worth trading the tying run for an out. I betchya it'd be even worse trading the go-ahead run for an out.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mar 24, 2008 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hence why these are the instances where
more aggressive bunting and basestealing become more advantageous--that 75% SB/(SB+CS) figure only really applies in a neutral situation where you're trying to maximize runs--late in a close game is not one of those cases--you're just trying to get ahead and stay ahead.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mar 24, 2008 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good hypothetical.
I would prefer to take the out, in most cases (one in the hand, and all). I would want to know if you have a strikeout/groundball/flyball pitcher. It would also probably depend on the batter at the plate. Also, as stated above, what are the odds of your team scoring in the next half inning.
I think it would be moot because I don't think a player is going to intentionally let the ball drop, but a fun exercise anyway.
by etp_stl on Mar 24, 2008 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
With a 1 run lead
make the catch and throw to second.
In a tie...?
Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!
by cardzfanbub on Mar 24, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this sort of happened the other day
I think the score was even 3-2 ;) Perez was pitching, IIRC, and Marti was the right fielder. I'm not 100% certain the ball was foul, but if it wasn't it was close and tailing that way. Marti made a great catch, regardless.
Anyway, I was always taught that you make the catch, I.E. always take the sure out. I never agreed. Of course, the one time you don't make the catch and it lands fair, you'll be on a bus to memphis, but it seems that you'd give the pitcher the chance to strike the guy out.
Bases loaded or even 2nd and 3rd, I might make a different decision.
Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado
by SleepyCA on Mar 24, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is the play that triggered the conversation.
We backed up the Tivo, it was clearly a fair ball. Marti caught it and ran into foul ground.
By the way, that kid looks a lot like Bob Gibson, kind of freaked me out to see Gibson playing RF.
by mwinf12 on Mar 24, 2008 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2008 Slogan
There was a diary FanPost last week about the Cardinals' 2008 slogan. Looks like someone at ESPN was paying attention, because they've thought them up for all 30 teams:
Copycatting aside, I thought their take on the St. Louis slogan was pretty much right on the money.
by effin fisk on Mar 24, 2008 5:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I hope by the end of the season,
I am eating my words about Izturis. I'm happy that he is playing better, but I am still not convinced he should be starting over Ryan.
Billy Crystal is a tougher out than Izturis.
by tangledbrett on Mar 24, 2008 10:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Slogans/Commericials
Anyone seen that new Yadi commercial? I dont want to ruin it for anyone, but even though im a big yadi supporter, i found the commercial a good watch.
by brindled on Mar 24, 2008 11:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Scott Rolen and the torn off fingernail.....
Ye-OW! There is nothing more painful than that. Nothing. Constant throbbing. oh, I'll never forget it.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Mar 24, 2008 11:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I've had that happen, and there's one thing that's been worse for me:
getting fluid drained from an infection. I nearly fainted when the doctor did that.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mar 25, 2008 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whose getting up with me to watch Opening Day?
Come on, you cowards.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2008 2:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wake up
People!
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 25, 2008 6:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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