Skip to the Lou

by chuckb on Mar 23, 2008 2:11 AM EDT in News Comment 113 comments

Recently, Derek Goold and Joe Strauss at the p-d posted their ideas of who will be in the opening-day starting lineup for the Cards. You can find them here and here .

What’s interesting about both lineups is that they both have Skip Schumaker as the leadoff hitter, playing RF. To me, Skip has always been this year’s So Taguchi – the guy who can play any OF position, pinch-hit, maybe pinch-run, very little power, defensive replacement sort of #5 OF. It’s possible that Brian Barton will fill that role on this year’s team and it’s also possible that So, had he remained on this year’s team, would be in the opening-day starting lineup but I find Skip’s inclusion a little surprising.

Set aside the fact that Colby Rasmus has been the team’s best OF this spring, assuming everyone finishes the spring healthy, we have a pretty good idea who the 5 OFs will be on the opening-day roster – Ankiel, Barton, Duncan, Ludwick, and Schumaker. Of the 5, only Ankiel appears to be an every day OF as he appears set to start the year in CF. As we know, Chris Duncan is relegated to LF (and Pujols’ backup) but the other 5 OFs have the ability to play more than 1 of the OF positions – an essential skill considering the fact that none have established themselves as everyday players. That said, both Goold’s and Strauss’ opening-day lineups have Ankiel in CF and Skip in RF. Strauss likes Ludwick to start in LF but Goold likes Barton to start in LF.

Below is a table that shows the number of PAs and games played in each of the OF positions for everyone except Duncan this spring. Duncan’s been hurt and is relegated to LF but the other #s should give us an indicator of where things are headed once the games start counting.

	PAs	RF	CF	LF
Ankiel	61	7	11	0
Barton	54	7	3	7
Ludwick	60	13	3	7
Schumaker	57	5	6	11

We can see that LaRussa seems to be trending toward Ankiel being the everyday CF. This is a big step for someone w/ as little experience playing the OF as he has though he certainly has the arm for it and, I believe, has the athleticism for it as well. Suffice to say, however, there will be some adventures out there as well. Tony clearly has more faith in Ankiel in CF than any of the other OFs on the roster. Tony seems to like Ludwick in RF – perhaps that’s partly b/c Duncan is limited to LF but it’s not too tough to imagine an OF vs. righties w/ Duncan in LF, Ankiel in CF, and Ludwick in RF. It’s the idea of Schumaker being the regular platoon vs. left-handed pitchers that I’m struggling with.

Jeff Francis is set to start opening-day against the home team. He’s a very good left-handed pitcher and our struggles over the last couple of years vs. lefties have been well-documented, not the least of which came exactly two weeks ago. So, of the two right-handed hitters in our OF, one of them will start on opening day. It seems to be a foregone conclusion that Duncan will sit. Does this indicate that Duncan will remain strictly a platoon player, only seeing the field against right-handed pitchers? I’m not sure how I feel about that. I’m not altogether opposed to platoons. Quite the contrary, I think they can be very effective if utilized correctly and Duncan, throughout his career, has been a pretty poor hitter vs. lefties,

On the other hand, this is a developmental year and Duncan has exactly 142 PAs against lefties throughout his career. He still has as much power as anyone in our OF and there’s no time like the present to find out if he is a platoon player or someone who can play every day. It’s a little strange to me that Ankiel has become an every day player who won’t sit vs. lefties on the basis of his 76 career PAs against lefties. I know he’s hit them well but we’re talking about 76 career plate appearances, for crying out loud! Sample sizes don’t get much smaller than that! It’s not like Ankiel has established himself as a tremendous CF or as the only OF on our roster who can play the position either.

So then why does Skip get the start against lefties ahead of Duncan? Skip does have better numbers against lefties than Duncan but, again, we’re talking about 41 PAs against major league lefties. His minor league numbers, again, are OK but in ’07, with just 73 PAs, his OPS was just .676 despite a .333 OBP. With Duncan’s power, couldn’t he put up a .676 OPS even if his OBP is considerably lower? Maybe this is just to give him an opportunity to play early in the season and it’s not the sign of a trend.

But maybe it’s LaRussa choosing Skip’s defense in LF over Duncan’s against lefties. That’s not altogether unreasonable considering Duncan’s absolutely horrid defense. Skip’s defensive advantage breaks the tie in their offense…maybe. Still, the difference between one of the better LFs last year (Matt Holliday) and one of the worst (Duncan) was about 14 runs defensively. That’s about a win and a half difference between the very best defensive LFs and the very worst. Last year, about 27% of major-league ABs came against lefties so, if we assume that Skip would be among the best defensive LFs in the game, he would be worth about .38 wins defensively over Chris Duncan in a platoon scenario. Isn’t it worth 2/5 of a win to find out if Duncan can hit lefties consistently? Isn’t it possible that, b/c of Duncan’s power and batting eye, his offense would be worth 2/5 of a win over Skip’s? To me, this is a very strange platoon. Skip offers virtually no power – has 3 career major-league homers – and doesn’t offer a lot in terms of stolen bases either – 4 in his career and a 65% success rate throughout the minors. Duncan’s upside, even against lefties, seems to be much bigger than Skip’s and Skip’s defense, though clearly better, doesn’t seem to provide a significant enough boost to offset Duncan’s offensive upside. That said, it is entirely consistent w/ LaRussa’s preference entering this year of focusing on defense, as evidenced by the Izturis signing.

it appears as though Brendan Ryan should be OK for opening day. He is, after all, the backup 3B as well as another backup middle infielder. D’Angelo Jimenez’s chance of making the major league roster just fell to next-to-none.
and, for those of you who still harbored dreams of Miguel Cabrera joining Albert in our lineup, Detroit has apparently signed him to an 8 year, $153 million contract. According to the report, he would receive just over $11 M this year and then $19 M for the next 7 years. This strikes me, at first glance, as a very good contract for the Tigers. First of all, he’s only 24 and could conceivably become the premier hitter in the AL during the next 8 years. Hell, it might happen this year. Consider the fact that A-Rod is 32 now and set to earn an average of $27.5 M for the next 10 years and Cabrera’s contract seems to be a hell of a bargain. Yes, I know he was fat last year and he’s a terrible 3B defensively. Is A-Rod 45% better than Cabrera? I’d say "NO" – emphatically. The guy can mash and to get him for less than what the Yankees will pay Jeter this year is a pretty good deal. Though it means he’ll likely never be a Cardinal, I wonder if it doesn’t bode well for the Cardinals’ chances of extending Pujols’ contract in 2010.

Happy Easter to all. I hope the Easter Bunny put lots of joy and self-fulfillment in each of your basket and I hope he (do we know the Easter Bunny’s a "he"?) brought all Cards’ fans some extra patience this year. I fear we’ll need it.

0 recs | Comment 113 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Ankiel and lefties

In the minors, Ankiel actually had a reverse split, if I remember correctly. That, combined with his ability to hit lefties last year in limted AB probably is enough to convince me that he should be in CF.

Though I guess by the all-star break, skip'll be sent down or traded, and we'll have Rasmus in CF, Ank in RF and Duncan in LF.

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on Mar 23, 2008 2:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ludwick also had a reverse split with a .100 OPS advantage against righties

though the question is always when does the sample size become large enough to compensate for the heavy regression we would apply to those odd instances.

by azruavatar on Mar 23, 2008 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

skippy and other random observations

watched the birds today and yesterday.
re skippy going down and out, i have to say skippy looked really strong and confident at the plate (and successful). it is easy to understand why he stays in the line-up.
confirming leach's comments, izzy2 had a very strong game in the field today; the play in the first on the high hopper was quite something.
worst at the plate were kennedy and duncan, followed by yaddy.
duncan also has a way of looking really bad on some balls in the outfield. it's not just the failure to catch the ball it's how he looks doing it that adds to his rap. he had another major stumble attack today.
mc clellan also looked very good, better than perez and, for today, pelphry.
ank would have had two out except for the wind picking up mid-way through the game and blowing in from right.
if you go to a game pitched by el duque and wellemeyer, be prepared for a long game.

as an aside, traditions field is a nice set-up (and beer is cheaper than at roger dean!).

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!

by sportsman on Mar 23, 2008 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Duncan's defense

gets a little overplayed. He isn't much different from what Reggie Sanders or Ron Gant provided in the OF. The difference is the potential offensive production is better. You're talking about a potential 35, 100+ guy. Those other guys were 20-25, 70-85 guys. I've watched Manny Ramirez and Adam Dunn look equally awful in the field. It would be great to have 3 CF in the OF that each hit .300, 30, 100. That's not going to happen, so you need to make trade-offs. I'll take Duncan's power production.

by etp_stl on Mar 24, 2008 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1!!

Absolutely -- I don't understand the backlash about his defense that this blog seems to inspire. He never played outfield in the minors, so he's been learning on the job for two years, and has improved his defense in both of those years. He also had a sports hernia for much of the last half of the season last year, you can't expect his defense to be stellar when he can't move effectively.

It's true that he doesn't have a great arm and doesn't get great jumps on balls in play, but there are worse OF in the division (Dunn, Lee) who get regular time (please don't quote saber stats at me either, I know those guys rank better, but look at the tiny outfields they play in -- that makes a difference) I think a healthy 500 PA's from Duncan could result in 30+ homers and a +.550 slugging pct., why would you trade a guy like that just because of his defense? It just doesn't make any sense to me.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 24, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if Rasmus ever had a chance?

Based on how much playing time Ankiel got in CF, it seems like Rasmus never really had a chance, even if he had hit better in ST (at least for average I guess, unless you're Barry Bond, you can't do much better in OBP)

by DiscoJer on Mar 23, 2008 4:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand it

Well, I for one don't get the assignments.

Why?

Well, Schu plays a nice centerfield. If he's going to start anyway, why not put him there. Ankiel definitely has the arm for right field and seems to hold down that position better than he's adjusted to center.

I don't understand why we are going to develop him at center. Rasmus certainly seems to be the centerfielder of the future. Just about the time Ankiel starts getting comfortable in center, he will probably be shifted to RF anyway.

So, are we putting him in center everyday so TLR can sit Schu vs. lefties? What is the purpose of developing Ankiel in center? This seems like a very short-sighted decision.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 23, 2008 7:38 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Skip in CF

Agree with Redbird. In his short time as an ML centerfielder, Hobbs has played mostly in right. When he has played in center, he's looked shaky. The bad routes are magnified in center. CF is the more demanding position defensively. Skip is a very competent CFer. The only way it makes sense to me is if TLR is not really sure about Skip long-term. Meaning he's willing to have Ankiel learn CF on the job in the ML and accept the inevitable misplays because Skip might not be with the team that long. When Rasmus comes up, Skip goes? Based upon comments from Mo, it does appear to be the team's plan to bring up Rasmus sometime this year. One would think that would mean Skip goes @ that point as they are both left-handed hitters. But Rasmus is a true CFer! Ankiel will be in RF when Rasmus arrives in any event so why doesn't Tony just make him a full-time RFer now???

BTW, I disagree with comments to the effect that Barton can play all three OF positions. The guy has speed but a weak arm. No way am I comfortable with Barton in RF.

by jjray on Mar 23, 2008 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's see Skip

I for one would like to see what Skip can do. It seems as he never gets a fair shake in the deal. He shows glimpses of good play and then gets sent down or something else happens. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and see what he can do, if nothing else maybe he will put up some good numbers and we could use him for a trade later when Rasmus comes up.

by scfalcon on Mar 23, 2008 8:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That Cabrera signing is a good one.

If his defense remains horrid, he's the new 1st baseman. Then he's your DH.

And for what it's worth, Seattle gave up the farm for Eric Bedard, literally, and he's having one horrific spring. The folks in Seattle are probably sweating bullets, even though spring stats don't mean a thing.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 23, 2008 8:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The one who needs to go

is Duncan. If he's a player, he's an American League player. You just can't hide him defensively. After the 2006 WS I advocated packaging him and Reyes to an AL team for a good left fielder (say Carl Crawford). The idea was shouted down as giving up "way too much." Now they've been exposed and you couldn't get much, if anything, for either of them. I hope he proves me wrong, but right now he looks as dreadful at the plate as he does in LF. Right now I'd prefer to see Skip in center until Rasmus arrives. I agree with RedbirdRay- why play Ankiel at a position he'll only hold temporarily?

by vinniefromjersey on Mar 23, 2008 8:40 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ditto the crawford trade

I was all over that too Vinny. I thought at that time both Duncan and Reyes would never be worth more. Tampa may not have gone for it but I was saying pick up the phone and find out.

I also think that Skip should play as much as possible. He will need to be traded to make room for Rasmus. So I think he should start in CF and leadoff every single day, if possible. Duncan may loose his job to Juan Gone. Chris better wake up cause being the coaches son will not help if he keeps this up.

by nybirdfan on Mar 23, 2008 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, if they Rays would have traded Carl Crawford

AT ALL, which I don't believe they were ever planning to do, someone would have and should have lost their job. He's a franchise player. Kazmir's a franchise player. Evan Longoria is expected to be one-you sign those guys at all costs. Especially since you have all kinds of attractive spare parts in your minors for deals. Those are the guys you use to fill in the blanks.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 23, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

meh

While the rays wouldnt' have traded crawford for duncan/reyes, crawford remains one of the most overrated players in baseball, imho. An .830 OPS in a corner OF position, even with 50 SB's, is not a franchise player except maybe on a last-place team. crawford will probably gain a little power in the next few years, but that will come at the expense of his defense and base stealing.

Duncan OTOH has an potential offensive value that is much, much higher than Crawford. Duncan's OPS before his injury last year hit .955 (peaked 26 July); assuming his true-talent is .930ish, that puts him in MVP contention in a career year. FWIW, I consider Duncan and Justin Morneau to be VERY similar players; Morneau had a .610 OPS against lefties in his first 270 PA, and then won the AL MVP the next year. And his defense at first is pretty bad, probably not much better than Duncan's would be (PMR says both prince fielder and ryan howard are better defenders than Morneau).

by SleepyCA on Mar 23, 2008 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On a lighter note......

I just came across an article that the Phillies pitching coach is good for his pitchers because he helps them stay relaxed. His name is Dubee......

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 23, 2008 8:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think we might

already know that Duncan can't hit lefties, and Ankiel can. This spring, Ankiel and Schumaker were in the lineup several times against lefties, not that it means much. Ludwick also has a reverse split. There's an interesting piece on this topic over at Fungoes.

I agree that Ankiel should play in right. No reason to have him play center for just a half season.

I wouldn't put Barton anywhere but left. He has a weak arm, and he's been surprisingly shaky defensively.

Duncan needs to show improvement or he may be the one out the door when Rasmus arrives.

by mikeonthecards on Mar 23, 2008 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm thinkin'

Tony will mix-and-match his outfielders all season long... trying to "first-guess" TLR is like trying to herd cats! It's entirely possible one could see Barton, Ank, and Ludwick in the outfield on Opening Day against the lefty, with Miles in the two-hole. The only "givens" are Albert at 1B, Yadi behind the plate, Izturis batting ninth at shortstop, and Wainer hitting eighth and pitching. (Given Wainer's bat, would hitting him ninth give Tony that "second leadoff" guy in the 9-hole? Hmmmm....)

I also think Duncan stays, because of his power... Skip or Ludwick are the most likely to get the short end of the stick when Rasmus makes his debut. (We gotta give him a better number than 84, fercryinoutloud!)

To quote the philosopher "Fats" Waller, "One never knows, do one?"

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Mar 23, 2008 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What jersey number

should Rasmus get? Hmmm....

by mikeonthecards on Mar 23, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I say 3

Maybe he'll turn out like another LH-hitting OF who wore #3.....

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Mar 23, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Iztruis

Izzy2 would have to change numbers than.

by StLHugo on Mar 23, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh

Boo hoo. I didn't realize that was his number, but maybe by the time Rasmus is called up, Iz2 will be a DFA.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Mar 23, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

11

I also heard that he is wearing 11 in Memphis right now, so maybe that is the one he is targeting.

by StLHugo on Mar 23, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Secret Weapon

wears #11...

If everything seems to be going well, you have obviously overlooked something.

by cardsrul on Mar 23, 2008 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Completely off the topic but,

If you have have never heard this song about Ozzie Smith, I suggest checking it out. I believe it will bring all of you a little joy this fine morning. Here is the link:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnqdmLZaUKs

Oh yeah...my vote is to trade Duncan and play Ludwick as much as possible.

Happy Easter.

Billy Crystal is a tougher out than Izturis.

by tangledbrett on Mar 23, 2008 11:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I thought you were crazy, but ...

Let's review.

Player GP, AB, HR, RBI, SO, BB, AVE/OBP/SLG, OPS
Ludwick '07 120, 303, 14, 52, 72, 26, .267/.339/.479, .818
Duncan '07 127, 375, 21, 70, 123, 55, .259/.354/.480, .834

For all the brave talk about Duncan, it looks like Ludwick provided more than I thought. His defense is significantly better, and you can't really platoon the two. They both hit RHP and not LHP. Obviously, Duncan's power production was a little better (7 HR & 18 RBI w/ 72 more AB), but what did his defense cost you in the same amount of time. I see the OF's needing to be Ludwick, Schumaker, Ankiel (LF, CF, RF), and fill in with Barton and Duncan on a platoon basis depending upon speed or power needs.

by etp_stl on Mar 23, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

neither of those OPS numbers

are indicative of the talent level of the players. Duncan had 100 PA's with his guts hanging out last year and ludwick had a month of "swing for the fences on every pitch because this is my last chance" mentality. They were both much better hitters once ludwick settled down, and before duncan got hurt. Duncan will surprise me if his OPS is under .900 (or over .960)* and ludwick will surprise me outside of .840-.880* this year, though the defensive difference makes them about equal.

* Barring injuries, of course.

by SleepyCA on Mar 23, 2008 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would agree with you ...

I was just shocked at how close the numbers were. It looks like both of them are solid major leaguers with Duncan having a little more potential overall. My impression was that Duncan was far and away the better offensive threat.

by etp_stl on Mar 23, 2008 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brought me joy

That song was excellent!

by cardsgirl95 on Mar 23, 2008 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm glad you liked!

Always makes me smile.

Billy Crystal is a tougher out than Izturis.

by tangledbrett on Mar 23, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I especially

liked the line - He''ll turn your hit into a double play.

by cardsgirl95 on Mar 23, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On OF Defense

Baseball Prospectus projects Duncan's defense for 2008 over 107 equivalent MLB games at -3 runs below average for leftfielders. It's sample sizes for Skip they project at 92 equivalent MLB games at exactly average for CF.

In '06, they put Duncan at -1 runs below average in LF and 1 run above average in RF in 16 games. Very small samples for that year, to be sure, but he is pretty much consistently put at slightly below average compared to the average LF.

The Bill James Handbook puts Duncan's Range Factor at 1.96. The league average for LF is 2.05. So, by that metric, he is again slightly less than average, which puts him in the middle of the pack, one hundredth of a point behind Matt Holliday (1.97).

Both he and Ankiel are learning to be outfielders and are doing so on the biggest stage, in the Bigs, out of organizational necessity. Both have been ugly at times (Duncan more than Ankiel). Both are younger developmentally as outfielders compared to their actual age because they are recent converts to the outfield. Ankiel has the potential to be something substantially more than serviceable with his glove due to his athletism while there is no reason to believe that the more fly balls Duncan takes, the closer to league average he will become. He is serviceable now, which is enough to warrant starting him, and he could become a notch or two better than that by career’s end.

Today, Duncan is more than adequate with the glove to warrant a lineup spot because of his broad offensive skill set of power plus on-base skill. Over his three MLB years, he has hit .272/.356/.528, an OPS of nearly 1.00. On an OPS-starved Cardinals club (tied for 20th out of 30 MLB teams in OPS last season compared to 9th in 2005), a problem that is only augmented by our middle infield of Kennedy/Izturis/Miles, a collection of one-dimensional slappies (my term for slap hitters who must hit for average to be even serviceable offensive players).

If Duncan is healthy, the Cardinals need him to play regularly in their outfield.

by bgh on Mar 23, 2008 12:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They should play him. And I wish they'd play him against at least some left handers.

It would be interesting to see if he can develop into a guy who can hit them. You never really know until you try.....

As far as all the defensive metrics, Okay. Maybe he's not so bad out there. But he sure looks bad out there.....Here's to improvement all around.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 23, 2008 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His swing better get healthy soon

or he'll find his butt warming the bench in Memphis. There are too many good outfielders in the Cardinal organization to have a healthy Duncan with a .200 batting average being in the line-up with a .280 plus hitter (Barton, Rasmus, Ludwick, etc) sitting on the bench twiddling fingers. I see that Barden cleared waivers off the Cards 40 man Roster. Who is being added, Rasmus?

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 23, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

every defensive metric outside of BP

has had Duncan as a -15ish player in LF. UZR, PMR, SFR, etc -- anything that's even remotely play-by-play in nature. Duncan isn't anything close to an average defensive LF.

by azruavatar on Mar 23, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's important to consider

how bad his defense was the last month or so, though. He could barely run at all (anecdotally) and that had to drag his overall numbers down. I really wish there was a day-by-day-style tool for measuring defense over time.

i agree, also anecdotally he isn't anywhere near "average", but i don't believe his final '07 numbers are his true talent level on defense or on offense.

by SleepyCA on Mar 23, 2008 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Skip Schumaker not on this board Roster?

Hey.... does somebody not like the Schu?

by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 23, 2008 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't look like there's a Gameday link today ...

They must be searching for eggs or something ... today's game is not on the list ... bummer ... at least there's audio for it ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 12:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It just wasn't available yet ...

For those searching ... here is today's Gameday link ...

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/y2007/gd.html?2008_03_23_slnmlb_nynmlb_1&brand=mlb

I wish Reyes was starting today rather than Wellenmeyer ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

KSDK

The game is also on KSDK channel 5 if you are in this area.

by StLHugo on Mar 23, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why does it not bode well for Pujols extension?

If Cabrera lowered the bar back down, why would it not bode well for the Cardinals?

If DeWitt isn't willing to just pay Pujols $20 M for 5 years and just label it sunk costs or franchise investment, perhaps it's time for him to sell the team.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 23, 2008 1:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Absolutely ...

Not extending Albert is NOT an option ... if they don't, they certainly don't want me as a fan anymore ... I want to see Albert break every Cardinal record Stan Musial owns ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wouldn't you rather

the cards do what's best for the team? if your fandom is dependent on whether they have pujols, then just follow him to the new team... maybe change your ID to Pujols4Ever

I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Mar 23, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you don't think extending Albert Pujols is best for the team ...

I would tend to question or other opinions regarding the team ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

'your' not 'or'

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well my point is...

the decision to sign him to a longer-term deal, should be a value-based business decision - not an emotional one. after his decline last year, there's no guarantee that he'll be worth 20m (post 2012) per year for 5 years. in fact, it might be bit too risky.

I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Mar 23, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hardly think inking Albert for 5 years at 20m per is an emotional decision ...

he's much more valuable than Jeter who makes much more ... Albert IS the franchise ... just look what happens to the team anytime he's out for any extended period of time ... extending Albert creates wins, gives you a gold glove first baseman, and puts fans in the seats ... what else could you possibly want ... he's the best player in baseball ... certainly right now ... possibly ever ... your point is well taken regarding health ... but I'm assuming that will be there, and these things are always subject to physicals ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FWIW

the cards were 8-7 in the 17 days in '06 that AFAIK was the only extended period of time they were without albert... and one of those glorious 8-game losing streaks started the day before they got him back.

(just messin' ;) we absolutely have to resign him no matter what it costs...)

by SleepyCA on Mar 23, 2008 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I might have read it wrong.

But he said "I wonder if it doesn’t bode well". Am I the only one that reads that as him actually thinking it is good for the cards chances. The context of it just makes me think that is what it meant. Of course I may be wrong, If so I blame it on not being on here since the end of last season. My mind may not be in regular season form yet.

by mattyfrommo on Mar 23, 2008 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My comment is meant to imply

that it DOES bode well for the Pujols extension. It's a double negative. I'll admit -- not great grammar but I think the Cabrera signing does make it potentially easier for the team to resign Pujols.

by chuckb on Mar 23, 2008 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm just stoopid

You is right.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 23, 2008 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

El Duque

El Duque is really off today.

And Izturis is having a nice fielding day.

by StLHugo on Mar 23, 2008 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I know ...

ain't it wonderful ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I read Houston's

comment on extending Pujols as it does bode well for extending him in 2010 with the Redbirds.

Sounds like all the ST observers say Barton is only a LF,
didn't Ankiel mostly play center in the minors? I'd like to see him in right and as long as Shu can play CF and hit put him there but I'm no expert.

jillsinmo-when I got your lighter note I LOL ( ; > )

by bigchieftootiemontana on Mar 23, 2008 1:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Anybody watching on MLB.tv ???

was the ball hit over Dunc's head catchable?

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 1:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if positioned different maybe

from where he was positioned he probably didn't have a chance on it, maybe a better break would have gotten it but he made the smart call letting it drop from what I got. BTW I am watching it on channel 5.

by StLHugo on Mar 23, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

probably not

but most would have looked better missing it!

If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs, perhaps you haven't grasped the situation!

by sportsman on Mar 23, 2008 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Todd Wellemeyer now has a higher BA than Cesar Izturis.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Mar 23, 2008 2:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Of course...

he also has a higher BA than Molina and Duncan, so I guess that point sucks.

I guess what I'm trying to say, is that Izturis is a waste of a roster spot.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Mar 23, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

With his second hit ...

Wellenmeyer is WAY ahead of Izturis and Duncan ... come on you position players ... get it in gear !!!

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice hit Ankiel

that was just a nice home run, not a long shot but nice well over the fence.

by StLHugo on Mar 23, 2008 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Way to go Rick !!!

I'm looking forward to watching him all season long ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 2:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Next inning would be a fine time for Hindenburg

to throw up a 10 spot with 6 walks, if he wouldn't mind.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 23, 2008 2:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wellenmeyer is looking good ...

isn't he? He can bring some heat ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I thought Wellemeyer looked terrible over the course of the game

he was inefficient and wild with his pitches. His walk rate problems aren't going to go away it seems. He'll struggle to make it out of the 5th on any kind of regular basis if he pitches like he did today.

by azruavatar on Mar 23, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But Duncan

likes the way he controls his pitch counts. I guess he doesn't care about Wellemeyer's history of a complete inability to consistently throw strikes.

by chuckb on Mar 23, 2008 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He looks like last year ...

in that he finds a way to keep the Cards in it, but he won't go more than 5 innings because of his control.

by etp_stl on Mar 23, 2008 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Mets are imploding ...

ain't it cool!!! ... they're still POND SCUM ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 2:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

by cardsgirl95 on Mar 23, 2008 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who wouldn't have rather seen Barton or Glaus ...

batting in the 2 spot instead of Miles with 1 out and 2 on on 2nd and third ... Pip at Fungoes was advocating hitting Glaus second the other day on his blog ... cited his better production there; and in general, batting your better hitters early in the order ... he also mentioned that with Ankiel, Ludwick and (supposedly) Duncan, there should be enough protection for Albert from them ... it was an interesting idea ... does anyone here put any stock in it ?

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i agree

I'd like to see:

ludwick-glaus-AP-duncan-ankiel-riffraff

though glaus and duncan's sopots in the order are pretty much interchangeable.

by SleepyCA on Mar 23, 2008 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree...

Glaus should hit fifth in this lineup. Period. There's no reason to move him up to the 2-hole, that creates more problems than it solves, imo.

Lineup:

Barton/Skippy
Duncan
Pujols
Ankiel
Glaus
Molina
Izturis
P
Kennedy

That's my lineup -- Glaus hits very well in the 5th spot, and slotting Ankiel in the 4 hole between Pujols and Glaus will provide him an opportunity to see plenty of fastballs, and ensure that he isn't hitting a lot of solo shots since Albert will be on-base a lot. Glaus gets no protection in this scenario, but if you're going to hit the pitcher 8th I think you need Kennedy at the bottom as a second leadoff hitter.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 24, 2008 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

not to mention

That lineup is:

R/L
L
R
L
R
R
S
P
L

If you're an opposing manager, you're going to use 4 bullpen guys if you want to set up against that lineup situationally. You literally can't do it against the top half of the order. Moving Glaus changes all of that and allows a situational lefty to face Ankiel and Duncan back to back, which could be a late inning rally killer. Obviously this shouldn't be the only thing looked at, but for someone like TLR, who lives on matchups, this has to weigh on his mind pretty heavily.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 24, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

duncan looked awful on that ball

took a terrible route, though i guess the ball may have drifted. but he looked bad. ankiel didn't look great on the ball that scored the earlier run, either.

e'rebuilding mang

by nycbirdo on Mar 23, 2008 2:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I for one really think Ankiel belongs in RF ...

and Skip should be in CF ... until Rasmus comes up ... I like Rick's defense, but he just hasn't grown into a dependable everyday big-league CF'er yet ... he has lapses ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about that McClellan kid ...

was that impressive or what ... struck his arse out ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 2:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The way Skip flattens out the bat

boggles my mind. I've never understood how when he swings for real he is able to flatten it out in that exaggerated fashion he uses in his practice swings. If you give him the ball up, he'll crush it because his bat is flat. Anything below his letters, though, it's going into the dirt.

Of course except that ball in Atlanta last year that nearly hit him in the shoe and he crushed it for a HR.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 23, 2008 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cesar Izturis is having a great game ...

it's good to see, I guess ... I think we're stuck with the guy, so I hope he picks it up ... I don't have a philosophical problem with a primarily defensive SS (can you say The Wizard of Oz), but Izturis has shown much promise of that yet ... he seems to be playing good defense today though, per Shannon ... hope it sticks ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 23, 2008 3:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes. He played shortstop like he's a good shortstop today.

Let's hope it becomes a trend........

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 23, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

If Iz2 could continue to make slick fielding plays like he did today in the first inning, I would be willing to overlook his bat a little more.

by cardsgirl95 on Mar 23, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not to nitpick, but...

During his prime, despite an obvious lack of power, Ozzie was FAR from being just a "primarily defensive SS." He was, in fact, notably league average with the bat.

At his peak from 1985 to 1992 he had the following OPS+:
101
98
105
98
97
77
112
105

So with the exception of the one down year in 1990, he was anything but a "defensive specialist." That's a mean OPS+ over 8 years of 99.125, which is the definition of average offensively. Add to that his "Best Defensive SS Ever" field work with the glove, and you can see why he was a perennial All Star.

I know the "common perception" is that he was simply a defensive wizard because he was unrivaled with the glove, but the truth is that he contributed significantly with his offense, as well, and his OPS+ was far from a liability. In fact, it turned him from an outstanding player to a once-in-a-lifetime player.

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Mar 23, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Remember though ...

Whitey forced him to develop that part of his game. From 1978 - 1983, he was not particularly an asset with the bat.

82
48
71
62
84
82

That has more to do with the perception that he was all glove. It's the reason Whitey was able to trade for him, and the reason the Padres thought they got a steal with Templeton.

by etp_stl on Mar 23, 2008 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Best day ever

This is my first chance to actually watch baseball since last season. I knew that I missed it, but I didn't realize how much until just now. Thank goodness for Slingbox and parents who live in Missouri...

McClellan (sp?) is looking goood today. I like the fact that he works so quickly. I always thought that had a lot to do with Carpenter's success. Don't give the hitter time to think. Don't give your fielders time to daze off.

by effin fisk on Mar 23, 2008 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Welcome back

by cardsgirl95 on Mar 23, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rasmus deep again

Can't wait for the kid to become a full-time regular.

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Mar 23, 2008 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think

I loves me some Brian Barton. I hope he (and his crazy braids) stick with the club.

by cardsgirl95 on Mar 23, 2008 4:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sigh...

Rasmus continues to hit, yet still won't make this team. I swear, any other team in baseball, he'd be the starting CFer. But nope, not good enough for Tony.

I hate to say it, but a large part of me is starting to hate this team and management. Izturis instead of Ryan. Skippy instead of Rasmus. Wellemeyer instead of Reyes. It just makes me angry that they drag out washed up players (Izturis) or scrap heaps projects (Wellemeyer) or career mediocre players (Skippy) instead of trying guys who have higher ceilings. Especially in a year where they will be terrible, anyway.

by DiscoJer on Mar 23, 2008 5:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Skippy

I am getting sick and tired of people ripping on Skippy. He is still 28, which while not "young" he isn't that old either. He has a ML career .400 OBP and good defense. I just don't see people's problem with him. While I agree Colby is a better player I don't think Skip is stealing Colby's roster spot. I think the money concerns are keeping him off, and while that is a shame it isn't Skip's fault. Wellemeyer has also never been given a chance as a starter until last season. I don't think he is very "good" but he is worth giving a shot too, I don't think he should get the spot over Reyes but I do think he deserves a shot. Either way I am getting more excited about this team each day and I think Colby will be up mid season and will stay up. He may not get a RoY award because of his time but I think it will be the best long term thing for the team.

by StLHugo on Mar 23, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I too see a lot of people against Schumaker, but I don't know why. I think he's a pretty damn good ballplayer. Rasmus will be up this year. There's no need for him to be in St. Louis on Opening Day. The Cards have plenty of outfielders.

by mikeonthecards on Mar 23, 2008 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

Schumaker has a career OBP of .331, not .400. If he had an "ML OBP of .400" I'd be singing his praises. As it is, he's a mediocrity, and only because of his defense; his offense is subpar even for a CF.

by SleepyCA on Mar 23, 2008 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Opps

I put the wrong line there, I misread slg and obp on his BR page. He has a career .331 OBP and .400 SLG last year it was .358 and .458

I still stand by my take that he gets a bum rap.

by StLHugo on Mar 24, 2008 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I gotta disagree ...

with your assessment here. I admit, looking at the numbers, I thought Ryan should be starting over Izturis. That being said, watching him today changed my mind. The "eye test" says that we haven't had a SS with those kind of defensive skills since Royce Clayton.

There is more to Rasmus not breaking camp with the team than just money considerations. I think the kid is going to be a very good major leaguer, but frankly Schumaker is the only polished defensive OF on this team. Ankiel and Duncan are learning the position; Ludwick is average, or slightly better; and Barton is below average. You have to have at least one guy that knows what he's doing out there (hence why he should be the starting CF, and not RF). I've been excited about Barton's spring, but he's never played at this level. Schumaker is the only real option for a lead-off hitter the Cards have.

I do agree with the Wellemeyer statement. He is never going to be more than a 5-inning starter. It makes him a much better option as a long reliever. It's laughable that Wellemeyer is firmed into the rotation, while Reyes is being stone-walled because of a lack of efficiency.

by etp_stl on Mar 23, 2008 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

disagree

I disagree on the comment that Rasmus would be starting on any other team. Jay Bruce, who is more touted than Rasmus in prospect circles, got less of a chance in Cincinnati. Jordan Schafer is the best CF the Braves have (although that's not saying much) and they're sending him down.
Of these 3, Rasmus will be the first to get promoted to the major league team. Look for it around May 15, so the team can delayed his arb clock by a year.

by Recon on Mar 24, 2008 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

a few small points

the ability to have skip lead off may have been a factor as well. penciling in pujols at 3, glaus 4, molina 7, pitcher 8 and izturis 9, leaves 1,2,5 and 6 amongst the 3 OFs and 2b. assuming they're right about miles starting at 2nd, the leadoff choice is basically skip, barton or miles.

as duncan has struggled at the plate this spring, TLR may be trying to let him get going against righties before having him flail against lefties

since the pitcher is probably a better hitter than izturis, shouldn't TLR's backwords logic then dictate that the pitcher should bat 9th?

birdhouse the other day cited a St Pete Times article suggesting the now OF depleted Rays might be interested in Schumaker. He's listed as one of 5 OFs they might target and fits the proposed criteria "Ideally, they'd get a left-handed hitter (or, heck, why not a switch-hitter) who can play all three outfield positions (...), has options remaining (...) and doesn't make much money"

by vances law on Mar 23, 2008 5:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Skip isn't a switch-hitter

he's left-side only. Second, the idea that Skip is going to become some great leadoff hitter is specious at best. His career OBP is .331. He'll make a nice 4th or 5th OF and if the Rays are interested, let's see what we can get. But he's not going to be a starting OF and leadoff hitter on a very good major-league team.

by chuckb on Mar 23, 2008 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But,

His OBP last year was .358. His OPS+ last year was 111. Last year is nearly 2/3 of his career plate appearances and games played. Career numbers are pretty difficult to use for a guy that had sparing use (fewer than 30 games each) in 2 of his 3 major league seasons. In addition, the guy played lights out for the better part of the 2nd half of last year (.369/.388/.523). He is never going to be a 30, 100 guy; but a .358 OBP and 111 OPS+ is significantly better than the numbers that Eckstein put up while he was here. You have to go back to Vina for a better OBP out of a lead-off hitter for the Cards, and his OPS+ only reached 100 once.

For a team in desparate need of OBP, I think I would be extremely slow to trade away one of the few guys that has exhibited decent potential in that area. I like Barton for that, but he is not even in the same league defensively. Schumaker has the potential to be a much better asset to the team than Taguchi ever displayed.

by etp_stl on Mar 23, 2008 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and a .368 BABIP

that is not sustainable. Since he doesn't have power, if his BABIP falls at all (which it absolutely, no doubt, will) his overall performance will also fall.

I'd be shocked by either a .750 OPS or .350 OBP out of schu in '08.

by SleepyCA on Mar 23, 2008 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Allow me to rebut ...

also to your above statement. You say his offense is sub-par for a CF, but here are the projected NL CF career offensive stats.

Team, Player, BA/OBP/SLG
Atlanta Kotsay 0.282 0.337 0.415
Florida Amezaga 0.249 0.314 0.339
New York Beltran 0.280 0.354 0.496
Philadelphia Victorino 0.274 0.336 0.405
Washington Langerhans 0.233 0.328 0.376
Chicago Pie 0.215 0.271 0.333
Cincinnati Freel 0.270 0.358 0.378
Houston Pence 0.322 0.360 0.539
Brewers Hall 0.264 0.320 0.467
Pittsburgh Maclouth 0.258 0.351 0.459 (last year)
St. Louis Schumaker 0.294 0.331 0.400 (career)
0.333 0.358 0.458 (last year)
Arizona Young 0.238 0.297 0.459
Colorado Taveras 0.293 0.338 0.350
Los Angeles Jones 0.263 0.342 0.497
San Diego Gerut 0.263 0.334 0.434 (starter due to injury)
Edmonds 0.287 0.379 0.531 (most likely starter)
San Fran Rowand 0.286 0.343 0.462

That puts Schumaker in the top 3 of BA, top 10 (using career #s) in OBP, and top 10 (using career #s) in SLG%. If you use his numbers from last year, he ranks considerably better in every category. The kid has gap power, which will keep him near .400 in the SLG% category with 2Bs and 3Bs. His plate discipline improved with every-day play last year. This would seem to make pretty good sense for a TLR coached team, as he doesn't look for plate discipline from PHs. He wants those guys hacking away.

I think you guys are cutting the kid way too short.

by etp_stl on Mar 23, 2008 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hooray!

Someone else who backs Skip. Thanks for taking the time to post those stats too. I don't understand all the negativity about the guy.

by mikeonthecards on Mar 23, 2008 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

top 10?

Top 10 out of 16 NL teams is supposed to be impressive?

I think the kid makes a nice 4th or 5th outfielder. But, you are trying to paint a picture based on a very small sampling of this kid's career. It's a sampling where he grossly outplayed everything he's ever done.

He will be 28 and has 2600+ minor league at bats where he carried less than an .800 OPS. That doesn't translate late well to major league numbers or to other ML outfielders.

Also, his major league plate appearances have been picked and chosen for situations where he would be most likely to succeed. TLR PH and platooned him for matchups. As mentioned, his BABIP was crazy last year and way beyond his career levels (in other words, it showed a lot of luck). In addition, you can't expect him to maintain a full season at a level of platoon advantaged appearances.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 24, 2008 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It IS possible to outperform your minor league performance

in the majors. I know it's the exceptional example of exceptional examples, and I don't have time to go running around looking up other ones, but look at Pujols in the minors and Pujols with STL--his career major league record is a good 100 points of OPS higher than his record in the minors.

And if anyone is going to maintain a hight BABIP, it's going to be a quick speedster like Schumaker. It has been established that a hitter actually can maintain BABIPs above, sometimes waaay above, their career BA. This isn't to say that I'm ultra-enthusiastic about skip, but I don't see him as a horrible platoon compliment to Brian Barton, at least until Rasmus comes up.

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on Mar 24, 2008 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A few points

Pujols is an extremely poor example. He was 21 and had less than 500 minor league ABs. Skippy will be 28 and has 2600+. One is a young megastar on an uptrend, the other a very predictable player in his peak years with a large amount of tell-tale data.

Skippy hasn't exhibited an extremely high BABIP as a skill. It was pretty much a one time thing. If he were going to be one of the guys in this category, it wouldn't only have surfaced in 188 major league plate appearances in 2007 and not anywhere else in his career.

I never said he wouldn't be a nice platoon player. I believe I actually said he's a nice 4th or 5th outfielder...which is basically what a platoon player is. But, to argue that he's going to be a 111 OPS+ guy or carry a .358 OBP as a full-time player is a real stretch.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 24, 2008 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i admire your energy

it couldn't have been easy to compile those CF numbers. And I hate "voting" against schumaker, even online, because he does everything that I wish Rasmus would do defensively and intangibly, but unfortunately I just don't think he's even the best backup OF for the team.

As far as the numbers you put up here, if a guy whose performance is almost 100% based on BABIP has one good quarter-season with an incredibly lucky BABIP, he'll look pretty good next to the others who had to play a whole year or several full years. But 10 of 16 (thanks, redbirdray) isn't great no matter what, and pie won't play much if he puts up those numbers, ryan freel will be replaced by bruce after a month or so, taveras will be more valuable because he steals a bunch of bases and has better defense, and Cameron will be CF for the brewers. So Schu would probably more realistically be #14 of 16, which doesn't exactly make me drool.

To be completely fair, rowand won't hit those #'s in SF either, and edmonds won't be anywhere near .910 OPS. But they'll both be better than schumaker.

And if Schu's babip was .300 in '07, keeping the number of BB's, SF's, 2b's, 3b's and hr's constant (ie best-case), his line even last year would have been about .300/.327/.424, which would have been pretty bad. NL average for a CF was .762.

Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado

by SleepyCA on Mar 24, 2008 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The "top 10" ...

rankings were conservative based on his career numbers. Also, Cameron vs. Hall in Milwaukee is .768 vs .767 OPS numbers, so I call that a wash. I tried to limit it to CFs that will start the season, since Rasmus will probably at some point this season take over, as well. What are the Cubs going to counter with that is so much better than Pie? Taveras has a career BABIP of .346 (probably due to his speed on infield hits), and Schumaker has value over many of these guys defensively, also. I'm not sure how you came up with your .300/.327/.424 line (my numbers were a little different), but the average BABIP for the listed CFs was .305. I'm guessing that is going to put Schumaker pretty darned close to that average value. Let me know.

by etp_stl on Mar 24, 2008 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But...

The guys who hit worse than Skippy are better defenders. The guys who hit better are probably just as good. This supports the assertion that he'd be in the bottom 2 or 3 starting center fielders. I'd expand that to include the whole major leagues even.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 24, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

etp_stl--

i want to start with an apology for my tone in the previous comment- sorry- I was in a hurry last night and didn't take time to review it. I enjoyed reading your response and was trying to compliment you for the amount of work it must have taken and ended up sounding condescending (at least to my monday morning eyes). I hope you didn't take it that way.

Anyway for that over-simple calculation I just solved the equation for babip for hits (setting BABIP = .300) to determine how many hits he should have had, then substituted that number into the formulas for BA, OBP, SLG, etc using the known AB's, SF, and SH numbers. Skip's LD% of 19.1 would support a .310+ BABIP, so the number I used may have been a bit low. OPS came out to .772 using a .311 BABIP IIRC (spreadsheet is on a different computer)

Well the girls would turn the color of the avocado when he'd drive down the street in his El Dorado

by SleepyCA on Mar 24, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SleepyCA

I didn't take it as condescending. I'm still learning a few of the stats, and their usefullness (not a Sabermetric guy). I just joined this blog, and I've really enjoyed the conversations. Your comments, and those of RedbirdRay, are well thought out and backed up with good stats. Some comments on here have been denegrating Schumaker (and Duncan for that matter), and calling for their immediate removal. My point is that neither guy is as awful as some imply, and frankly, Schumaker is necessary to this team at the start of the year. Ultimately, Rasmus will take his place, and I believe Shumaker will get traded. Consequently, I'm hoping for him to follow his spring with a torrid first two months.

Thanks for running the additional numbers. It looks like that brings Schumaker back up to about average, as far as CFs go.

by etp_stl on Mar 24, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

true, but..

I wasn't suggesting that he'd make a "great" leadoff hitter, just that TLR is using him as such.

Its not like the other available options against lefties are substantially better (or at least the ones Mo/TLR are keeping on the roster): Kennedy's career OBP is .306 against LHPs, Miles' is .346 "But he's not going to be a starting (2b) and leadoff hitter on a very good major-league team," neither Duncan nor Ludwick strike me as leadoff types and certainly not against lefties where their career OBPs are below .290.

the quote (including the part between the parenthesesa about why not a switch-hitter) was straight from the St Pete Times. Cheap, left handed hitting, can play all 3 outfield spots seem to be the main criteria. The complete list of candidates was: "the Rays seem more likely to first explore trade possibilities, with names to keep in mind including Dave Dellucci (Indians), Gabe Gross (Brewers), Skip Schumaker (Cardinals), Reggie Willits (Angels) and, less likely, Reed Johnson (Blue Jays)."

by vances law on Mar 24, 2008 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Remember when Capuano for Rolen was all the rage as a rumor or proposal?

Both are injured. There's a newsflash with these two.

Capuano (possibly torn UCL in his throwing elbow) most likely for the season and Rolen for God knows how long (displaced fracture on the middle finger of his throwing hand in a fielding drill? Huh?)

Rolen: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080323&content_id=2454018&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Capuano: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080323&content_id=2453214&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Ugh.

by kwhiteside on Mar 23, 2008 10:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Scottie

I hate to see him hurt. He always played with Eckstein's level of effort, with All-Star levels of production. Here's to hoping that he gets back fast and slaughters some Red Sox and Yankee pitching.

"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams

by Valatan on Mar 23, 2008 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He ripped his fingernail off

Ouchie.

by Evilfrog on Mar 23, 2008 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rolen injured?

The real question is how this finger injury will find a way to manifest itself in his shoulder over the next 4 weeks.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 23, 2008 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

non-displaced

It's actually a non-displaced fracture, which as I understand it is good news.

I'd like to think I wouldn't be happy to see anyone to get hurt (even ol' Melonhead Bonds), but it especially sucks to see Rolen hurt again, and in a strange kind of way again. I'm with Valatan, and I assume just about everyone else here - I hope he's back fast and has a good year.

by BTown Birds fan on Mar 24, 2008 12:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs