community projection results: kyle lohse
by lboros on Mar 20, 2008 9:23 AM EDT
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Printmarch madness tips in a few hours --- if you haven’t filed your entry for the VEB bracket challenge yet, now’s the time. click here to get started. couple other thoughts before i share the results of the lohse projection:
- it looks as if both brian barton and brendan ryan are going to make the team; they’ll be joined by colby rasmus before too long. anthony reyes is probably going to open the season in the rotation, and either kyle mclellan or chris perez will probably be on the opening-day roster. when camp opened i wouldn’t have expected all those things to happen, nor even most of them. obviously they might not have happened if it hadn’t been for all the injuries and the DUI case, but so what --- the important thing is that the young players are getting their opportunities, which is what i and so many other fans have been clamoring for. and the first guys up from triple A will probably be other young guys --- joe mather, mike parisi, jason motte. this is mozeliak’s first roster; would it look anything like this if jocketty were still in place?
- re the wainwright extension: seems like a smart move to me, even though their last 4-year committment to a pitcher --- carpenter, last off-season --- didn’t work out so well. you can’t really compare this deal to that one, because the entire value of wagonmaker’s package ($15m) is roughly equal to a single year of carp’s. if wainer turns out not to be worth the $$$ for whatever reason, the hit to the payroll will never be more than a few million bucks in a given year --- ie, they should be able to afford a replacement. the option clause also sounds good; really, nothing to dislike about the deal. as with the molina extension, this contract gives the cards cost-certainty going forward without diminishing their payroll flexibility. best of both worlds.
the other day the boys at No Bias Baseball asked how the cards got such a steal in lohse. here are the results of our projection, alongside the brand-name projections:
| GS | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | W | L | ERA | WHIP | |||
| PECOTA | 23 | 140 | 152 | 42 | 86 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 4.35 | 1.386 | ||
| VEB | 29 | 184 | 196 | 56 | 118 | 21 | 11 | 11 | 4.42 | 1.371 | ||
| b james | 31 | 188 | 210 | 59 | 114 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 4.55 | 1.431 | ||
| marcel | --- | 163 | 179 | 52 | 109 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 4.69 | 1.417 | ||
| CHONE | --- | 178 | 199 | 59 | 109 | 21 | --- | --- | 4.70 | 1.449 | ||
| ZIPS | 29 | 177 | 197 | 54 | 109 | 22 | 10 | 10 | 4.78 | 1.418 |
that is one uniform set of projections, no? it just drives home the point that lohse’s main appeal lies in stability, as opposed to ability. even we hometowners don’t expect him to raise the team’s ceiling; we just hope he’ll stabilize the floor, keep the rotation from sagging too badly underfoot or snapping altogether. i should note, by the way, that the brand-name projections are all based on lohse’s most recent home ballpark (ie, citizen’s bank in philadelphia); in st louis his hr rate (and, commensurately, his era) should go down. we expect lohse to outperform his career rates in 2008:
| IP/S | H/9 | W/9 | K/9 | HR/9 | ERA | WHIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| proj 2008 | 6.1 | 9.6 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 4.42 | 1.371 |
| career | 5.2 | 10.0 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 4.82 | 1.432 |
irrational optimism? probably not; the career marks are skewed upward by all those years pitching in the dh league and in n.l. hitter’s parks. our lohse projection is almost identical to our projection for joel pineiro:
| GS | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | W | L | ERA | WHIP | |||
| lohse | 29 | 184 | 196 | 56 | 118 | 21 | 11 | 11 | 4.42 | 1.371 | ||
| pineiro | 27 | 169 | 181 | 52 | 110 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 4.44 | 1.377 |
this (i think) is your gameday link for this afternoon’s contest. i’ll be on a plane, finishing up 4 days on the road; home this afternoon, hallelujah.
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That's
a great way to put it - we don't expect him to raise the team's ceiling, just stabilize the floor. Well said, sir.
Kenny Tarmac
Pretty good projections. I'd take that.
I think we'd all be happy if he can go 184 IP. Stability in the rotation would be welcome.
Scooter,
Good job of getting the ol' name out there for recognition. Need to work some on tying it to the product though buddy.
Kenny
by ArkansasTravs on Mar 20, 2008 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
IP
If we get over 350 IP from Lohse and Pineiro with what is basically a 4.43 ERA (I don't want to calculate it out this early in the morning) from them combined, we should count ourselves as lucky--especially after last year. Some good ol' fashioned innings eatin' is just what the doctor ordered.
Very happy re: Wainwright
This is an outstanding signing - even though we already owned his rights for four of the next six years. With fan favorites Eckstein, Rolen and Edmonds gone, Wainwright is the only player besides Pujols currently putting butts in seats. It would have been disastrous PR for the team for him to dramatically outpitch his $500k salary and start to make noise. With the team going to struggle anyway and lose a few bandwagon jumpers, this is a great way to show commitment to the team's core talent and its core fan base.
Plus, it's still scandalously cheap. Wainwright can earn his $15mil on today's market with 1.5 good seasons out of the next four. And with the option for 2012 and 2013 combined, the team retains significant bargaining leverage toward another long term deal at below-market rates.
Long term, this might be one of the best stories to come out of this Spring.
"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz
"Stabilizing the floor" of a rotation is vastly
underrated, as is averageness in general. With enough average players on a team, it only takes a few real stars to make it a damn fine team. In 2006 and 2007 we saw clearly now much damage can be done by a few truly below-average players.
Way to go Moz ... that roster is as young as I could have realistically hoped for, and the Waino signing is a damned steal.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 20, 2008 10:12 AM EDT reply actions
Not so sure about Reyes...
LB, I'm afraid your hunch that Reyes will open the season in the rotation (even with the "probably" qualifier) might be too optimistic. Note Duncan gushing about Brad Thompson's start yesterday in this morning's P-D:
Thompson's outing was solid enough for pitching coach Dave Duncan to seek him out to offer praise. "I think Brad did some things to help himself today. I certainly don't think he did anything to hurt himself," Duncan said....
With Todd Wellemeyer projected as the No. 4 starter behind Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse and Braden Looper, Thompson and Anthony Reyes are dueling for the final spot. While manager Tony La Russa and Duncan have noted Reyes' need to get outs more quickly, Duncan noted the speed with which Thompson got 12 outs against 15 hitters, saying, "That was an efficient outing."
I would not be surprised at all if WonderBrad ends up as the fifth starter who then gets shuffled to the pen once Pineiro/Clement are ready to go, while Anthony gets sent down to Memphis to work on "getting outs more quickly." Reyes has had a pretty good spring (much better than Looper, who inexplicably still has a guaranteed rotation spot), but I won't believe AR has a spot locked up until I see him on the mound at Busch next month instead of Memphis. Call me paranoid, I guess....
Plethora of starters
You've stolen my thunder... I was typing this when you posted.
It appears the Starters will be Wainwright, Looper, Loshe and Wellemeyer with a battle between Reyes and Thompson with Clement and Pineiro soon to start after the season begin. I think Wellemeyer and Thompson are the best fit to go to the bullpen when "C" & "P" come back, which means Reyes starts the season in Memphis.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 20, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
And I'll ask the question again
Does anyone remember that Mr. Mozeliak was quoted in the PD that he wanted Anthony Reyes in the starting rotation?
There is no way they should start him at Memphis. If they don't put him in the rotation they need to trade him immediately. They worry about his trade value. What do you think it would do to his trade value if the baseball world sees the Cardinals think so little of him that they prefer the likes of Looper and Wellemeyer? And what does it do to the progress he's made this spring? Do they even care?
I know he's got plenty to work on. I know he had a bad year last year. I know he's got flaws in his game. What I don't know is why they seem unwilling to work him through it or trade him. They have to do one or the other. And they can't use the excuse that he has no trade value. His bad year AND THE WAY THEY HAVE TALKED ABOUT HIM AND HANDLED HIM has lowered his trade value. It is just as much their fault as Mr. Reyes'.
If they send him to Memphis, they will be again making a no decision and I will lose my respect for Mr. Mozeliak.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Well, I would like Reyes to start
But LaDunc comments leads one to think what DCRedbird speculates. Trade Reyes with all the Cards arm problems? Not a chance. I just don't see Reyes being a fit for the bullpen, so why not start him in Memphis? Odds are he'll be brought up soon. Mozeliak can maybe force the issue, but I think LaDunc will make the final call.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 20, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
They don't want to use him even with all the Cards arm problems......
So what the hell good is he tucked in Memphis? Nope. Time to commit or trade. Period.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
And I say that as someone who has a huge MOM CRUSH on Anthony.
It would pain me to see him go......
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Reyes is his own problem
Reyes hasn't been consistant enough to warrant a "commit". The problem is he is either a starter or nothing where as Thompson and Wellemeyer have better resume of skills out of the bullpen. I just can't see the Cards trading him away just yet, if at all.
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 20, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
This is exactly why he belongs in the rotation
First of all, we should point out that Thompson and Wellemeyer are not good. Wellemeyer, despite having better stuff than Thompson, has been mediocre to bad this spring and the idea that he's assumed to have a job in the rotation is mind-boggling. Nevertheless, it seems the battle is between Thompson and Reyes. This should be no contest but b/c Duncan doesn't seem to like Reyes, he gushes fawningly over a mediocre outing by Thompson and inexplicably guarantees a rotation spot to Wellemeyer.
As you say, either Wellemeyer or Thompson can pitch out of the bullpen. That's exactly where they should be. For 1-2 innings at a time, they're not going to hurt you much. But, if Duncan and LaRussa have such tunnel-vision that they can't give Reyes some starts ahead of these two replacement-level pitchers, it's time to cut bait. The rotation will never get worse and, therefore, there will never be a greater opportunity for Reyes to finally prove he can put it together. If they're not going to give him a chance now, they never will.
by chuckb on Mar 20, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Thank you, houstoncardinal.
You made my point better than I did. And take into account that he has done what he needed to do in the off season, is in a good frame of mind, and his pitched reasonably well this spring they will be forever sending the message to him and the baseball world that we don't care what you do, you are still not good enough. If they are ever planning to use him on their mound, or in a trade, they had better think long and hard before they do that.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Wainwright- We know what to expect.... he should be solid.
Lohse- We know what we should get. Innings at league average or a tad better.
Reyes- Who knows
Looper- Who knows....Last year was good
Thompson- He is not a starter...... Good at spot starting & bull pen duty
Wellemeyer- Who knows. I would say a better bull pen arm. Strike out ability.
Mulder- Who knows
Carp- Don't expect him to be a + or - this year.
Pinero- Who knows.... should at least eat innings
Clement- Who knows..... has not pitched in 2 years. Used to be league avg.
Basically the Cardinals don't have any good pitchers once you get past AW and Lohse.
I think Reyes should get the first chance to start, but that's not because I consider him way better than anyone else.
Well, if all else fails
We know Reyes can swing a bat.... can they teach him to play SS?
by OKCARDSFAN_411 on Mar 20, 2008 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I dispute your point that Looper was good last year.
He was serviceable but mediocre. I'll say not bad for a first year starter. But not good.
You all do know that Looper himself had right shoulder surgery in 2005? Is he really a good bet going forward?
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
+1
He was good for about 2 months...April and May...and pretty bad the entire rest of the year with an occasional gem thrown in there.
If you look at his splits from last year, he'd be better off in the bullpen. His first 2-3 innings were always pretty decent -- then he gets hammered the second time through the lineup. Same with Thompson and Wellemeyer, but two of those three have to start in the rotation.
If Reyes doesn't start in the rotation I don't think it's a crime...Looper will pitch himself out of it before the end of May, and Thompson and Welley should be in the bullpen at some point this year. He will get a shot in the first couple of months.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Nope. It will be a crime. They cannot send him
to Memphis. Trade him or start him. Period.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Methinks...
...you are way too emotional about Reyes. He has proven nothing except that he cannot batters out when he has men on base. His best starts have always been when he limits the hits to a very few and that is simply not going to happen often enough for him to be a consistent winner.
I hope I am wrong and he learns how to pitch out of the stretch but to say that right now he is one of the best 5 is a stretch at best.
He did exactly that his last time out. He had two on from an error
and then a walk. He struck out the last two batters he faced-swinging. On a 3-2 count. Both times. It was on gameday so I don't know if it was from the stretch or not. Maybe he's figured some things out. Maybe not.
I stand by my statement that if he doesn't open the season he should be traded. Immediately.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Demotion or trade
The Cards are not in the business of trying to make people happy about their station. IF the club thinks it can better the organization by trading Reyes then they should do so. IF the club thinks they are better by letting him pitch in AAA then they should demote him there.
He is not a baby. If Reyes cannot handle a demotion then too bad. He is not cut out to start in the major leagues if he can't handle being sent to AAA because he cannot get people out out of the stretch.
BTW, I think it is great that he got himself out of a jam yesterday...let's hope it is the start of a new skill for him because clearly he has struggled in this area.
Please point me to where I said anything about Reyes being happy.
I am referring to further diminishing his value. It is what I firmly believe they will do if they demote him. If they don't think he's progressed enough, they should trade him.
He has never acted like anything but a professional through everything. They don't want him, you don't want him, so why the heck is he still here? It's just stupid.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
How is he going to learn, though?
Reyes completely dominates in AAA. I don't think his haters understand just how good he is there. He needs to pitch at the major league level. If the Cardinals won't give him that chance, then they need to trade him to a team that will. Or heck, just release him, and let him have something of a career, instead of just stagnating in AAA for the rest of his life.
I can't believe this
This is crazy! You guys ask that the Cards be dispasionate about how they eveluate players yet you guys are crying for Reyes to "get a chance". These are not children out there. If he wants to learn how to get people out when pitching from the stretch then do it all the time at AAA. You would think that some on here are Reyes' best friends or family members. The fact is he has shown flashes of ability mixed in with consistent suckiness. I can think of alot of players that fall into this group. Most are what are considered AAAA players. Maybe that is all Reyes is. And if he gets stuck in the Minors it is his OWN FAULT!
How much will Anthony learn in AAA?
The problem with your argument is that you are neglecting several important factors in the decision of how best to evaluate Anthony's true talent level.
Knowns:
Unknowns:
Given the above Knowns and Unknowns (and I left a bunch out), it's rather clear that Reyes' best opportunity to start is at the BEGINNING of the season, rather than sometime "down the road". He clearly has very little left to learn when pitching against AAA batters, and the only legitimate way to evaluate whether or not he can cut it at the ML level is to start him at the ML level.
I have absolutely no doubt that these reasons are exactly why Mo has explicitly voiced his desire to have Reyes start the season as the #5 pitcher. As a club it's the only way we can determine his true value to the organization. Many extraordinary pitchers struggle initially when jumping from AAA to ML (see Maddux, Greg, circa 1987). Reyes might be one of them. Or perhaps he'll forever be a AAAA pitcher. We simply have to find out, and the only real way to do that is to keep throwing him out there against ML hitters. It's not like it's gonna cost us the pennant this year...
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on Mar 20, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Reyes pitches poorly from the bullpen
How is that a known? It's probable, but it's certainly not known
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
A valid point
Point taken. I seem to recall reading somewhere a while back, though, that everyone with the club was pretty much in agreement that Reyes was poorly suited for the pen. Nonetheless, he definitely doesn't have sufficient history to justify the declarative. Consider it stricken from the record.
Notably, however, it doesn't really weaken the case for having him start.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
He's proven all he needs to at AAA
what more is there to learn? What's he going to gain by pitching to AAA hitters for a THIRD season in a row? It's time for him to get a real chance at the major-league level -- not for a couple of starts here and there, but for however long it takes until Clement and Pineiro or Mulder are healthy. There is absolutely nothing to be gained in starting Thompson and/or Wellemeyer and nothing to be gained in sending Reyes to Memphis, AGAIN!
We'll never know if Reyes is one of those 4-A players until he pitches for the big club!
Sorry
Come on cut me a break, I did not say great!
Compared to Mike Maroth, Kip Wells, Anthony Reyes and others Looper looked good last year.
I agree I don't see Looper as a long term starter.... I would say Reyes meets that description better.
But who knows, maybe Reyes is what he is......... I think he gets a bit more slack because he is still cheap and young. Who knows maybe the Cards should just trade him and see what they get. Hell they probably wish they traded Jimmy Journell.
Amen Jill !!!
They need to leave Anthony alone and just let him pitch ... he's much better than either Looper or Wellenmeyer, and I'm quite frankly tired of hearing Duncan and LaRussa diss him all the time ... if he can't make this rotation, then they clearly need to shut up and trade him ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 20, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Thank you.
I usually get punched (metaphoricly speaking) around here for my support of Mr. Reyes.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
And I'd probably get punched for real if the screen wasn't protecting me so well......
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
We have got to get Looper into the pen
If Clement and Pineiro come back quasi-healthy, I think you have to move Looper back to the pen. He's been crushed so far this spring, and if he's gonna give up nearly a run per inning, I'd rather him do it in one inning of relief than in four innings to start the game.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
You are absolutely correct, Mr. Redbird ...
The competition for Brad to make the starting rotation (temporarily) should be with either Looper (my choice) or Wellenmeyer ... Looper is a good pitcher, and I like having him around, but he seems to clearly be better suited for the pen ... it's no coincidence that that's where he has always been his entire career before last season ... The starting rotation on opening day should be WAINRIGHT, LOHSE, REYES, WELLENMEYER, THOMPSON, and Pineiro should almost immediately replace Wellenmeyer or Thompson ... I don't see why we need to wait for 3 or 4 bad starts from Braden before Mgmt figures this out ... it seems pretty obvious to me ...
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 20, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
But Mr. Duncan and Mr. LaRussa like Mr. Looper.
You cannot underestimate how vitally important that is in the decision making progress.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Jill
I don't know if they "Like" Mr. Looper or not, they demoted his sorry ass in 2006 in favor of making Adam Wainwright the featured reliever/closer. So it's not like they have a history of a love fest with Mr. Looper.
I know you have a "Mom crush" on Mr. Reyes. I actually believe right now the best bet is to let Mr. Reyes have a full opportunity to lose his starting role. I think it is just the right diection at this time. Now some will arge that Mr. Thompson has out pitched Mr. Reyes despite far less opportunities and they are probably about right about that. However I see Reyes being a better starting pitcher than Brad. I think Brad overachives while Anthony underachieves though.
My only problem with the whole Reyes debate is this fale idea that he has been screwed with. Come on he has started 44 MLB games and pitched 205.3 MLB innings, he is far from being screwed. He has gotten lots of opportunites but has never really blown anyone's socks off yet consistently. I don't know if due to his hype people just expeceted too much of Mr. Reyes. He may end up being a league average pitcher and we are all wasting time arging about him.
All I know is all a player asks for is an ample opportunity(ie... playing time) to prove themselves. I think he is getting that and the ball is in his court to take the bull by the horns!!!
that's my take.
Mr. LaRussa has always treated the players he liked differently than the players he didn't.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
who doesn't...
...treat the people they like differently then the people they dont'?
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon
who doesn't
a manager of people (not just baseball - any manager) shoudn't treat those the like differently from the disliked - bad business. Doesn't mean it doesn't happen all the time, but that doesn't make it good.
Tony should be doing what is best for the cardinals as a team. _IF_ he doesn't personally like reyes (note the if), that personal dislike should not interfere with baseball decisions.
I for one have no idea what is going through TLR's head, or what notions are floating around under the flat-bill for that matter. But personality differences should not affect professional ones - I had the same opinion regarding the Rolen debacle, but that of course did not work out in the end either.
by cdb on Mar 20, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
This might be the single biggest legitimate criticism about Tony's handling of the team. Over the years I have come to respect LaRussa a great deal, but he certainly shows an emotional bias that blinds him toward doing what is best for the team (see: Miles, Aaron; Flores, Randy; Veterans, All).
Izturis
over Ryan looks like it might shape up to be the same thing. Ryan, by all accounts, is a complete spaz, and too often makes immature and bone-headed decisions. Nevertheless, it looks right now like he is the better all-around player.
One thing that hasn't been mentioned
Regarding this whole Looper, Reyes, Thompson thing, I think one of the key reasons that Duncan and TLR seem to "like" Looper and Thompson and not Reyes could be related to pitching style. Is seems to me, and I could be wrong, that Dunc loves the pitch-to-contact, two-seam throwing, ground ball producers. This is the category Looper and Thompson are in. They have forced the two seamer on Reyes and part of me thinks that might be at least part of the problem when he pitches for the big league club.
I still believe in Reyes, I think he should be in the rotation at least to start the season. And I personally would rather see Thompson start than Wellenmeyer. Welly has done nothing to convince me that he is anything more than a bullpen guy. IMO, Thompson could hold down the fort until someone else gets healthy.
Billy Crystal is a tougher out than Izturis.
by tangledbrett on Mar 20, 2008 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Ding Ding Ding!
Buy that man a prize. That is what I believe is at the crux of the matter. But we went over and over this before. I'm tired. Mr. Reyes is what he is. And I think all would have been better served if they would have tried to make him be the best he can be, instead of trying to make him be what they wished he was. Does that make any sense? Like I said, I'm tired.
You all have a nice evening.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
That makes a lot of sense...
At least it does to me. Keep the Reyes faith alive.
Billy Crystal is a tougher out than Izturis.
by tangledbrett on Mar 20, 2008 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
But Looper isn't really a groundballer
Or at least, he hasn't been since he was with the mets. He's become even less of one since Duncan's gotten his hands on him
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
Man
What's with all the "Mr."s around here?
What is this. Reservoir Dogs?
by arch support on Mar 20, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I do that because some folk used to slam me for using the term LaDunketty
last summer. My mama taught me to be respectful, so I shaped up. That's why I do it -Mama would kill me if she knew I was being impolite to someone.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Ms Jills
you sure have been polite and that's a fact, but you seem to have had a lot of fire in your belly here lately and I like that...but does your Mom know about all that fire in your belly.
She does. Don't start with me unless you're sure you can win......
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I don't post often
But, the Reyes topic always seems to bring me out.
It seems, Tony and Dave have just destroyed every ounce of confidence Reyes had. He has never been given a fair shot. Wainwright started off extremely slow last year as well. But, there was only talk of sending Reyes back down and almost immediately. They have never given him a shot to pitch his game and do it continuously at the major league level.
Give me a break, he has no business in the Memphis rotation. We already know he'll dominate there. Let him work it out all year or trade him to someone who will. Young pitchers do not come up and dominate immediately. it's amazing to me that LaDuncan would rather have a Royals throw away ptich instead of someone with high potential.
See my post
I am not trying to start an argument, but if you look at things closely Mr. Reyes he has had a lot of opportunities in my opinion. He has just not been able to string things together. Yes Wainer started out a bit slow but he it a point where it just clicked and off to the races. See Anthony has not been able to string anything together despite getting 44 MLB starts.
Hell ask Brad Thompson about being crappped on, the guy has been bused back and forth, started on short rest, long rest, and everything in-between. Hell TLR ripped him for hitting a batter on purpose after giving up a HR and saying that he was childish and he would not tolerate that stuff.
So it's not like AR is public enemy #1 as many like to make him.
Well,
I agree. Reyes is not public enemy number one and Thompson has definietly been treated badly too. Reyes has had a lot of opportunities. I just think that someone who has the kind of talent he has shown in the minors, should be given a longer leash. They have made it as hard as possible for him to succeed. I just think the back and forth from Memphis and St. Louis really set him back badly, maybe permanently.
Both Haren
and then later, Reyes were jerked up and down from Memphis. To pitch one game in certain situations. Both usually gave good efforts in these situations, but with no reward but a ticket back to Memphis.
You might can do this with some people, but some you can't. La Russa is a cut and dry person it seems to me. ( I get that impression from a number of interviews I have heard.) In general I don't believe La Russa is a good handler of young pitchers, again this is just my impression. He never recognized Haren's talent it seems and if he had not been traded, I suspect he could have gone the path of Reyes.
I can recall at least 4 ocassions where Reyes and Haren were called up to pitch in pressure games and then dumped back to Memphis in favor lesser talent that was on the staff...Didn't like it then and don't like it now.
Haren's a different situation entirely
That was a team tweaking for the playoffs. He had no place on the team but in the bullpen, failing something catastrophic happening to one of the starters. It's not quite the same thing as a marginal team not giving a promising starter a chance.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
You are correct about that. We seemed to have all the pitching in the world back then.
But it was sad watching him being interviewed when he made the all star team. He talked about how he felt he was the forgotten man out there and Tony never even talked to him. I got to think it's possible they never noticed how good he was, or I should say, could be, because they kind of forgot to look.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I see your point
but still it seems that La Russa missed the boat on his talent as a pitcher. He later confessed that Duncan didn't want to make the trade. Leaves who, Jockety...La Russa .. Jockarussa.
Also refresh my memory, seems I don't remember the pitching being solid (adequate, not solid beyond Carpenter) Morris and Williams definitely has inconsistencies. After all we didn't win it all.
And it forever changed Cardinal history.....
Mr. Mulder was the winningest lefthander for years, the years before we got him. It seems so long ago, but he was oh so good....
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
The "youth" movement is on
I'm not sure whether the changes would have been the same with Walt, but the Cards have turned the page.
For all of the complaints about the Cards and veterans, this is going to be a largely home built team.
Of the 13 position players--
7 were drafted by the Cards
Albert
Yadi
Kennedy
Ryan
Duncan
Ankiel
Skip
4 are veterans
Miles
Izturis
Glaus
LaRue
1 Rule 5 (Barton), and 1 minor league FA (Ludwick).
So if you count Barton as a minor league pickup, 9 of the 13 position players were from the farm system.
On the pitching side, the numbers aren't quite as high.
3 draftees (with perhaps another to be added)
Looper
Thompson
Reyes
8 Veterans (6 to start year)
Piniero (DL)
Lohse
Clement (DL)
Franklin
Springer
Izzy
Wellemeyer
Villone
3 System guys
Wainwright
Flores
Jimenez (TBD)
So, in round numbers, of the likely 25 man opening day roster, 10 will have been drafted by the Cards and another 5 (including Barton) will have come up through the minors, with only 10 coming as veterans from other clubs.
I'm interested to see how they do.
Dave
wainer et. all
If the money the say on mlbtraderumors is right, 4 for 15 mil is a steal. Even if he is just league average that is really easy to swallow.
I will be extremely happy if barton makes the team, his upside alone is worth him being on the team.
Rotation: If wellemeyer can't through strikes he won't be in the rotaion long and wonder brad tends to get over exposed, reyes will make the big club and start, if nothing else to prop his trade value
"Textbooks are Soviet propaganda" - Rev. Jerry Falwell
Thanks to everyon that joined the March Madness
brackets online. Good luck and have fun!
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 20, 2008 1:04 PM EDT reply actions
UPSET ALERT:
Georgia over Xavier.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 20, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
That is not
a good start to my bracket. Rats!
Yeah
One of my elite 8 teams could be knocked out in the first round, but as an unashamed SEC homer, I'm loving it!!
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Wow! Is that for real? I'm stunned......
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Not final yet
41-30 with 17 Min remaining is what I am currently seeing, but UGA seems to be controlling it.
46-42 with 11:40 to go
Seems Xavier is getting alot of calls all of a sudden.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 20, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
18 to 2 Foul Shots
for Xavier. 2 foul shots in a tournament game? Are you kidding me?
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 20, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
And they hit almost every one of them
UGA didn't roll over though, and for a team that only won 4 conference games all year, I think they looked pretty good.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
I filled out an offline bracket today
In my paper copy here at my desk I have UGA in the Sweet 16 so I am quite happy with their current lead.
Gameday certainly seems to be up to speed today
It's calling pitches as quickly as Rooney and Claiborne are.
by BTown Birds fan on Mar 20, 2008 1:16 PM EDT reply actions
Gosh I love
Listening to baseball, first game I've had a opportunity, with actual Cardinal broadcasters.
Put a huge smile on my face when I heard Rooney's voice
"If I managed the Cubs, I'd be an Alcoholic." - Whitey Herzog
Wainwright's contract
I guess I'm the only one un-thrilled with Wainwright's extension.
Looking over other pitcher's contracts who weren't extended until later, I don't see how we saved any money.
Harang was allowed to pitch through his fourth year before being extended. His last 3 years of the 6 are 2.35 million, 4.25 m, and 6.75 m.
Scott Kazmir still hasn't been extended beyond year-to-year. He's made 316k, 371k, 423k, and just settled for 3.78m.
Dontrelle Willis was ROY, second in Cy Young voting in 2005and made 353k, 378k, 4.35 million, 6.75m and was just extended at 7million.
To me this reeks of prematurity along the lines of Carpenter and Edmonds extensions. There was no reason for us to settle on a contract with 4 years of team control remaining. Pitchers still give very nice extensions with 2 years left. I would have at least waited through this year.
It seems to me we committed serious money to pitcher with a huge injury history at relatively little discount simply for some option years. Maybe those are pretty cheap option years (I haven't seen the numbers on those), but still I think we jumped the gun.
I'm giving this signing a big poo-poo.
Huh?
What huge injury history? And you're suggesting that $15 mil, for FOUR years, for a guy with #2 starter talent (and maybe #1 starter talent), who also has all the intelligence and strength of character you could ever ask for, is too much money? Wow.
By TODAY's standards this is a great contract. In 2 years we'll look back on this and be even happier about it.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 20, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
No, it's not a great contract
It would be a great contract if Wainwright were a free agent, but he's not. He's under team control. I've illustrated above what some of the game's top non-free agent pitchers have been paid over the last few years. Honesly, I don't think Wainwright compares to Harang or Kazmir. But, even if you put him in their league and pay scale...locking up the next four years instead of taking it year by year saves you at most $2 or $3 million dollars.
I'm not saying don't ever extend him, I'm saying it's stupid with 4 years left of team control. We could probably wait and see if he makes it through this year and part of next and still get him locked up for favorable option years.
As far as injury history, I was thinking Adam had Tommy John. But, I was wrong. He tore a ligament in his pitching elbow but elected not to have surgery. He missed 2/3 of 2004 and a little of 2005 with it. While maybe huge is a little strong, I would still file pitching arm ligament tear under "too significant to give a player an premature extension".
I am certainly no pitching mechanics expert, nor really a buff. But, I have seen several articles like this one (scroll down) that claim Wainwright is a ticking bomb.
On the one hand, it seems like a fairly reasonable contract.
On the other hand, pitchers + long term contracts = oops! injured for a year
They probably should have waited until the end of this year IMO and they probably should have just given him a big raise this year.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
redbirdray
Thanks for the link! that was tremendously interesting.
I just cringe when I consider that Reyes had the same pitching coach as prior. Is his arm going to fall off? I am more nervous about AW since he is really the "future" at this point, I hope he holds up.
Greg Maddux is my favorite pitcher of all time, probably because I really grew up watching the man pitch. It is just great to see a guy baffling MLB hitters considering he looks like just an average joe and there is nothing flashy about the man.
Just analyzing this on an individual player
level, your argument has some merit. (Although AFAIAC, in today's baseball economy $2-3 million over a period of several years is chump change.) But I see this signing as something bigger ... as a signal to the fans and even to other young players that we're serious about building the next great Cardinal team, and especially as a way to acknowledge that Wainer is becoming a real leader on the team. And looking down the road, the time is now to start thinking about Pujols' NEXT contract. Willingness to go the extra mile for young team leaders like Yadi and Wainwright creates a better space to argue to Albert that there is a good reason for him to sign another contract with El Birdos.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 20, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This was the point I made way up above
The Cardinals' fans pour a ton of money into supporting this team, creating a huge disparity between club revenues and the size of our "media market." As part of that, fans like to see our upper-echelon players earn a nice payday. Of course, we also like superstars to want to take the "home team discount" as thanks for our investment, both financially and otherwise. Part of the same phenomenon. If this helps keep Pujols here, then bravo! It's a win win all around.
Adam Wainwright is far and away the best pitcher on our staff, and locking him up early (for a very reasonable price) helps fight the avalanche of negative PR against DeWitt and "DeWallet."
"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz
But the club options change that
They've basically extended the period of team control a couplea years--if, at the end of his original contract, which would be his six years, he's worthless, they can cut bait. However, if he's still a great pitcher, then they've got two more cost controlled years for him.
It's not that stupid I think it's a relatively fair deal for both sides, and gives the team stability goign into the future.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
However, not using punctuation is stupid.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
+1
in response to your fair deal comment.
Unless...
he blows that elbow out this year....then it's very stupid.
I just don't see why they couldn't have waited. Do you think they couldn't have signed option years if they waited until he had 4 years used up instead of two?
They already had him this year for 500k...So, if you subtract this year and $ from the contract....they extended him for 3 yrs/$14.5 million (not counting the options). I just don't see where giving an team controlled player $5 million per year is a "deal" for us. It seems, at best, the going rate for elite level pitchers. And, locking him up after only two years of team control are used seems extremely pre-mature. I can't believe as happy as he seems here that he would decide to hold out for big money after the end of this year.
It seems like all the risk is on the team side and was taken way too early.
$5M/year is way below the going rate
for élite level pitchers. And the options are the whole point. Those are years that he could be asking for a big breakout deal, potentially. Instead, he's locked up, at the team's discretion, at a reasonable rate. If his arm gets blown out this year, then they're out $10M, which, while nothing to sneeze at, isn't crippling in today's market. If he doesn't, then the team has saved more than the value of the entire contract.
"You say the world has lost it's love. I say embrace what it's made of" - Dar Williams
Options
I haven't seen the options. I am sure they are reasonable and the point of locking up a pitcher early. Does anyone know what the options and option activations are?
If you look at recent non-free agent elite level pitchers, you will find that you are incorrect about $5 million per year over the last three years of team control being "way below the going rate for elite level pitchers".
Johan Santana earned 1.6m, 5.5, 9m in his last three years. And, he didn't sign an extension that bought out his last two seasons plus his first year of free agency until after his 4th season in which he one a Cy Young award. It averages to just over $5 per year. Frankly, Adam is no Johan Santana.
Comparing arbitration year contracts to the going rate for free agent elite pitchers is comparing apples to oranges.
You are making assumptions that this contract is worth it based on the option years. I think that's premature as I haven't seen the option year prices. Unless they have options at way, way, way below the free agent going rate and the options are totally under team control....this contract is not worth the premature risk.
ray, even if he does blow his elbow out this year
it's not such a terrible deal. they'll have to eat $2.6m in '09, $4.5m in '10, and $6.5m in '11 ---- those are not sums that would wreck the payroll. it's not the kind of risk that would cripple them if they crap out. and since looper, en'cion, mulder, and potentially izzy will all be off the books next year, and glaus comes off the books after '09, they should have enough payroll room to cover the loss.
as to the potential gain ---- if he maintains his current level of performance, then at current rates he'll be due about $15m in the last two years or arb eligibility, and about $25m to $30m his first two years of free agency. the cards control those 4 years for $30m so if he stays healthy and productive they stand to save $15m. that's the upside they're gambling on.
his contract is very comparable to what dan haren got after the '05 season ---- danny got 4 yrs / $13m with an option year. he was in exactly the same position as wainer, ie one year from arb eligibility. and interestingly, his record in '05 was 14-12, 3.73 --- almost identcal to adam's 14-12, 3.70 (albeit in a different league/ different park). i don't think they overpaid for him.
Overpaid
I don't think they overpaid, either. I never said that. I am saying it was silly to pull the trigger with 4 years left of team control. Better pitchers have had to wait longer and still were extended at a team discount.
I also don't get agree with your reasoning that Carpenter's loss wouldn't cripple the Cardinals. I guess I am not frustrated over a single player's contract. I am frustrated over the organizations approach as a whole.
I realize Mo is not responsible for the bulk of our current payroll. However, he has added several players this off-season. While none of them have been bank breaking individually, the sum seems to nickle and dime us quite up there. Rehab projects, free agent stop gap shortstops, premature extensions, minor league contract longshots, stop-gap rotation filler....these things all add up. Personally, I don't think a 75 win team has any business jacking there already top end payroll from $90m to $110m for basically nothing gained.
All these little things do add up to a substantial sum.
While the team does appear to be getting younger overall, these sort of business practices reek of WJ's style and were what painted us into a corner post 2004-2005 juggernaut.
Are young players getting opportunities?
Izturis over Ryan
Jimenez probably over Perez/Castellanos/Motte
No Mather
The only decision that I'll applaud is to keep Brian Barton and that looked iffy until Gonzalez pulled his abdominal muscle. I've been particularly underwhelmed with the opportunities given to younger players this spring. If Reyes is sent back to the minors again in favor of Wellemeyer (who is still walking too many batters -- 9BB in 15 innings is NOT a good thing. 8:9 K:BB ratio is NOT a good thing), then I'd say that Jocketty's roster would probably have looked quite similar to this one.
I don't understand why the team remains so reticent to commit to players like Brendan Ryan or even Mark Worrell. Barton is the one bright spot this spring.
Mather
He doesn't count. Of course if the Card's did not have the awful combo of Kenneday and Izturis then Mather may have made the team. Mather was competing against Ryan and I am glad Ryan won, only because it may mean that Iz will not play SS for too long and also it means Miles will not play SS!
So I am OK with Mather not making it.
Anyone watching Yanks/Jays on ESPN?
Scott Rolen looks ancient at 3B. 5 hits that Rolen would have usually come up with have been butchered by him over there. That decline sure was quick.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 20, 2008 2:37 PM EDT reply actions
really
I watched the Twins vs. Jays on Sunday but Rolen and Eck were not in the game. I was hoping to see if Rolen's swing looked any quicker than the past few years. If a fastball was above his belt he had no shot at catching up to it the last few years.
Izturis with another error
and zero hits on the day. I love his calm, cool and collected approach to sucking at SS.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 20, 2008 2:49 PM EDT reply actions
It's the soft hands. He had to stop and cradle and caress the ball. He just didn't leave enough time for the throw.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Hey Mo
You could pay me $50,000 to suck at SS if you want to.
Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country
Reyes, Lohse and Wainwright
Lohse has been a mediocre pitcher at best throughout his career. I still have not seen one trade or acquisition that I like from MO.
Reyes has upside and he should be given every chance to stick in the rotation.
Wainwright is already one of the very best pitchers in the NL and should have his best year yet in 2008 with an improved H per 9 IP ratio over 2007. One thing that is overlooked is how well he pitches with RSP/2 out.
DYNASTY League Baseball - the leader in realism in Baseball simulation games from the designer of Pursue the Pennant.
by DYNASTYLeagueBaseballMike on Mar 20, 2008 3:13 PM EDT reply actions
Dennis Dove Released
There's a great story
in that link about a Sain-signed baseball given to Wainwright. Here's a quote from it that made me chuckle:
'"It is," Wainwright said, "one of my prized balls."'
Uh.
by arch support on Mar 20, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Dennis Dove released
I alway hate it when I hear of minor league players I have followed closely and had hopes for being released and I had hopes for Dove. I guess next will be one of my other past favorites, Mike Sillman.
Comment on Comment Thread
Per earlier on the thread, I highly suggest that we always use the old NY Times rule about referring to people as Mr., Ms., Miss, etc...
I also feel Mr. Reyes should have the opportunity to start in the rotation, given the other options, regardless of any sense of "deserving" a chance or not.
by glennrwordman on Mar 20, 2008 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Mr. Glennrwordman
You are correct there. It is in their style handbook. Whether you like the New York Times or not, it is always perfectly written with perfect grammar.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
If we're upset with the youth movement here...
get a load of what's happening in Cincy.
It appears the Dusty Baker era in Cincy has begun in earnest: Jay Bruce has been sent to AAA despite there being no truly better options in center. It's believed that Ryan Freel and (gulp!) Corey Patterson will split time in center to begin the season.
I'm glad the Cards starters will have a guaranteed 3 k's every game against Cincy when Patterson starts. Good to see my old friend Corey back in the NL Central.
Just close your eyes, and swing as hard as you can, Corey!
In Bruces's case...
he wasn't exactly great in Spring Training. I guess taking Dusty's advice on hitting. he didn't walk at all (well, I think once) in something close to 50 PA.
He's also a year younger than Rasmus.
Rasmus might not have had the highest average in ST, but his OPB was close to .500 and his SLG was good, too.
Although as you say, the really funny thing is what while Rasmus lost his chance to the So Taguchi of the future (Skippy, which is pretty maddening), Bruce apparently lost his job to Corey Patterson. Corey Patterson! Mwhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah.
That's really not fair to Corey...
I don't know why you guys keep ripping on my man, Corey.
I thought he was awesome in Stand By Me and The Lost Boys...
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
Corey Patterson is crimianally underrated
because everyone focus on the fact that he never lived up to the hype and ignore that he's a fantastic defender with speed. He's a valuable player that the Reds got for little to nothing. It was a great pickup by them. (I think the Mariners really missed out when they chose Wilkerson over him.)
focuses
my english skillz did not get an upgrade with the new platform. Tragic.
(Little known fact: The new platform runs on my new quad processors core! )
It gets worse for Cincy...
The Reds have three good-to-oustanding young pitchers all lined up to make the rotation at some point this year -- Homer Bailey (who has not yet broken out), Johnny Cueto (who looks like at least a #3 pitching in the #5 spot coming out of camp) and Edinson Volquez. All three could be in the rotation by midseason for a team that has a chance to be making a charge for the division, and taking heavy innings in late August and September. None has ever pitched more than 160 IP in a season. None is older than 23.
In Dusty's first season with the Cubs, Kerry Wood (26), Mark Prior (22) and Carlos Zambrano (22) each pitched over 210 IP, and each acquired staggering pitch counts along the way.
The future of the Reds... waiting to be ruined forever.
"Attaway to stomp 'em. Stomp the piss out of 'em. Stomp 'em when they're down. Kick 'em and stomp 'em. Attaway to go boys. Pound that old Budweiser into you and go get them tomorrow." -- Joe Schultz
Oh, This is bad. Real bad. Maybe Bailey is saving himself by having a bad spring.
Mr. Zambrano is the only one he didn't break. But he may have helped him wear down before his time. I would watch his workload carefully if I were the Cubs......he is consistently high in pitcher abuse points.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
not to mention bronson arroyo
falls to pieces after 100 pitches (1.309 OPS against in '07, .910 career), and Josh Fogg is a ~5-6 inning pitcher as well. They might actually challenge us for number of bullpen innings thrown this year... I can't imagine a worse fit for that team than Baker, other than maybe ned yost.
BTW I did not know that Volquez was a starter. that makes the hamilton trade look a little more defensible, i guess.
Waiwrights contract
Not trying to say I pulled a Llboros here but...
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2008/2/21/34920/9967
"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Mar 21, 2008 3:11 AM EDT reply actions
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