community projection: kyle lohse
by lboros on Mar 18, 2008 8:07 AM EDT
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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Printafter his simulated game yesterday, kyle lohse told the post-dispatch: "My slider has pretty much always been my go-to pitch. I can throw it for a strike at any count, or run it off the plate a little bit. … I did that today." the available numbers back that up. according to josh kalk’s compilations from pitch/FX data, in 2007 lohse threw his slider nearly a third of the time:
| overall | vs RHB | vs LHB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| fastball | 47 | 52 | 43 |
| slider | 29 | 29 | 30 |
| change | 17 | 13 | 20 |
| curve | 7 | 6 | 7 |
this is far from a complete sample --- neither of lohse’s home ballparks last year (cincinnati and philadelphia) was wired for FX, so these kalkulations (get it?) are based on only 900 or so pitches (about 1/3 of lohse’s overall tosses). the new pitch-type data at fangraphs, which come from a different source (Baseball Info Solutions), cover all 3000 of lohse’s pitches from 2007; they show kyle throwing the slider with slightly less frequency (53 percent FB, 23 percent SL, 18 percent CH, 6 percent CU), but the relative proportions are about the same.
i want to return to josh kalk’s smaller sample for a second, because it shows platoon breakouts. lohse’s tendency to throw the slider in equal proportion to right / left batters is rare. most pitchers feature the slider less often against lefties; that's true even among pitchers who throw a lot of sliders. for example, sliders represent 37 percent of all the pitches john smoltz throws --- but the proportion is 44 percent against righties, only 31 percent vs lefties. jeremy bonderman (also 37 percent overall) threw it 43 percent vs right-handers, 31 percent vs lefties. among lohse's new teammates on the cardinals, ryan franklin throws his slider 22 percent of the time --- 36 percent against right-handers, 7 percent against lefties. for adam wainwright, the proportions are 20 percent overall, 30 percent vs right-handed hitters, 9 percent vs left-handers. the only pitcher i found who had a similar platoon (non)split with respect to the slider was --- ladies, better hang on to your boyfriends --- jason marquis, another frustrating hurler to whom lohse has been compared in the past.
kalk’s numbers also amply illustrate lohse’s statement that the slider is his "go-to" pitch. check out his percentages last year a) when he had 2 strikes on the hitter, and b) when he was ahead in the count:
| overall | 2 str (249 pp) | ahead (262 pp) |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| fastball | 47 | 41 | 39 |
| slider | 29 | 36 | 41 |
| change | 17 | 20 | 18 |
| curve | 7 | 3 | 6 |
when he’s ahead in the count (ie, 0-1, 0-2, or 1-2) he throws the slider more than any other pitch; on 2-strike counts (0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2) it runs a close second to the fastball. on the pivotal 2-2 count, he threw the slider as often as the fastball (albeit in a small sample of only 60 pitches).
well, so much for the preliminaries. please give me the following 9 numbers in comma-delimited (no spaces) format for kyle lohse:
-
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
i’ll share the results on thursday.
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GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
25,203,205,55,101,20,12,12,3.45
by stlcardinalsfang on Mar 18, 2008 8:30 AM EDT reply actions
Lohse
I'm curious to know what results Lohse (and other slider-throwers) get when they throw their sliders to lefties. Is Lohse being hardheaded to do this, or is he getting people out?
30,196,230,51,100,18,9,14,4.33
excellent question
and i don't know the answer. hopefully that type of data will become available soon.
Slider vs Lefties
Exactly! I would be interesting to look at games where he got shelled and see if a few sliders to a few lefties sparked or maintained rallies. This is something that the Stats folks can inform Dunc about and Dunc can see if its worth changing.
by beardedfish on Mar 18, 2008 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Complete Games
Cards had just 2 complete games last year. Looking at the SP's for this year looks like it will be more of the same. Over/Under at 3?
Yup
Generally, TLR coached teams don't get a lot of complete games -- look at the number over the last 15 to 20 years. I would say that we'll probably have a few more this season with Lohse on board and Wainer in his second season as a starter
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Lohser
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
30,210,240,80,130,30,13,15,4.65
WHIP - 1.52
K/9 - 5.57
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Lohse
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
32,190,208,58,121,23,10,12,4,67
Hopefully I did that right and the WHIP amounts to about 1.4 or so.
stlfan
Lohse, +
29,182,201,77,123,27,12,14,4.36
complete games- over 3. Wainwright may have that many himself
by vinniefromjersey on Mar 18, 2008 9:47 AM EDT reply actions
league average > lohse > our other broke-down options
28,179,184,51,119,22,10,11,4.48
i'll take that and run with it...let's go, lohsey!
larussa for mayor, pujols for president...
Pretty much his career numbers, with a little ballpark/Duncan related improvement
32,193,208,54,128,24,10,9,4.72
you mean
you still feel duncan is some pitching wizard after what he did with kip wells?
hell, most of the guys duncan brought back from the dead were already league average pitchers who they took out of a hitters park it seems.
Sounds familiar...
Isnt that a description of Kyle Lohse?
Kip Wells is a head case most pitchers that have success with Dunc are strong minded players: Carp, Benes, Suppan, Woody...
The ones that bomb have a little mental issues:
Marquis, Kip, Stephenson...
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon
Isn't that a bit circular?
Do pitchers fail because they are head cases, or do we know that they are head cases because they fail?
I think that Duncan has a profile of guys he likes to work with. Some of them, he helps with, and some of them, it doesn't work out.
I don't think it's fair to say a pitcher that fails is a head case.
Mr. Duncan is successful with a certain type of pitcher. One thing he never has is a diverse starting staff. Go look at what Rick Peterson has to work with on the Mets, and what he has done with them. He has Orlando Hernandez who throws about 60 miles per hour; he's helped turn Pedro Martinez from a power/control pitcher to a finesse/control pitcher; he's helped Oliver Perez turn the corner towards consistency; and he's ushered in John Maine through a rocky beginning as a starting pitcher; and he helped keep Glavine going with a different pitch pattern; and the Mets got more use out of Jorge Sosa than the Cardinals ever did. I think Peterson is the best pitching coach in baseball right now. His one black mark is not being able to get Pelfrey transitioned, but he's still got time for that.
So sure. Mr. Duncan is a fine pitching coach and he's had some successes and he's had some failures-just like all the 31 other pitching coaches. It's just not true that he has magic fairy dust that fixes all pitchers.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Failed Pitchers
not all pitchers that fail are head cases...but those i mentioned are...some lack the talent and some lack the drive and some cant handle the mental side...i dont think i ever said Duncan had fairy dust...is he one of the better pitching coaches? yes...is he the best? could be, but youre right that Peterson is right up there along with some others...My point is that Lohse is the kind of pitcher that Duncan could have success with...
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon
I did say Duncan has been a fine pitching coach. And I'll concede
your point that Kyle Lohse is exactly the kind of pitcher he can help.
My point about Rick Peterson is that each one of his starters is completely and radically different than the other. You can't argue that he's managed to get each one of them pitching to their strengths. That's quite a fete....
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Huh? I don't think I make sense anymore.....sorry.
Peterson has got them all pitching to their strength.....nevermind....
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
i concur...
n/t
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon
Oh, and now that he's got Johan...
I think he'll just get out of his way.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
Look
Lohse is coming from Cincy and Philly to Busch III, so it's not unreasonable to assume a ballpark-aided improvement over his numbers, just a bit.
Also, Kip Wells is an incredibly small sample size to quote on Duncan's success, or lack thereof, in re-inventing pitchers.
If you take the time to look, you'll see that the only improvement I'm giving Lohse is a couple percent less hits and walks and a few more k's. It's not like I'm making him look like Pedro or something.
And like nomar34 noted above me, isn't Kyle Lohse exactly one of those "already league average pitchers who they took out of a hitters park"?
by arch support on Mar 18, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
comma-delimited
comma-delimited please...
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon
K/9 over 6 and BB/9 under 3...
....makes for a solid year. Hooray optimism!
31,176,196,52,119,10,12,4.49
Here it comes...
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
18,112,110,40,90,15,8,5,3.98
Why this line? He'll be traded midseason for something good.
GO CARDS!!!
Lohse
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
24,145,130,55,98,14,8,10,4.78
lohse
31,185,195,62,100,20,14,13,4.50
i think lohse will be very close to these numbers, but the won-loss could vary greatly
if the offense is better, he could be as good as 17-19 wins, with only 6-9 losses, but, if the offense (and defense) is worse than last year (god forbid) i could see 6-9 wins with 14-18 losses
Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.
Fascinating
An estimate of game conditions, batter personality, hope and expectation of run support along with its inevitable realization, the desire to fulfill child hood dreams and fantasies, did I leave the iron plugged in. Kendrick is a rookie; he can’t be expected to pitch game 4 in Colorado. You’ll have to take that. Is there any way you could cover a few innings of long relief if he gets into trouble? J….F…C… bases juiced in the second inning!!!!!!!!! Two strikes and one ball….I’ve played against these guys in the Japanese all-star series. He will be looking for a slider away to take me opposite field, so let me go with a fast ball up and in; maybe he will pop it up.
Some one do a nonlinear differential equation on that one, send it to a Freudian analyst….no don’t bother, they called it from the bench.
I'm still trying to get used to everyone's scientific approach.
Westcoastbirdwatcher
by westcoastbirdwatcher on Mar 18, 2008 1:28 PM EDT reply actions
Still hurting from that Matsui grand slam?
Couldn't tell if Kaz hit the slider on that pitch. Whatever it was it was low and on the middle of the plate.
Are you Lohse's wife or something? First you predict the signing now you give us a mental summary of his playoff experience last year.
you can't sneak the sun past the rooster
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
32,195.2,215,55,121,25,15,12,4.29
Big improvement over Kip Wells...
if you must play skip, play him at second base
I really don't think
he'll finish the year as a card -- as I alluded to Sunday. But I guess we're going w/ season-long projections so here goes:
32,191,204,61,124,18,12,11,4.52
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
31,185,201,62,123,21,9,11,4.72
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle."
i wish i could take credit for it
but b.j., one of our readers submitted it.
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle."
I like it!
Punisher of Spheroids Belgian Waffle. I think that should be his name from now on. Imagine PA guys saying that:
"Now batting, Punisher of Spheroids Belgiiiiiiiiaaaaaaaaaannnnnn Waffle!"
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Mar 18, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Lohse Projection ...
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
31,188,192,61,124,25,15,10,4.16
Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...
Lohse Projection
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
31,195,210,55,123,20,14,11,4.40
KL
28,206,203,50,130,20,13,7,4.25
I think Dunc will have a positive affect on him...
"Back in the day when I played, a pitcher had 3 pitches: a fastball, a curveball, a slider, a changeup and a good sinker pitch." - Mike Shannon
The anti-Eckstein
32, 195,210,50,110,25,13,11,4.70
Interesting theory from UmpBump that Lohse came cheap because he was represented by Boras, and that he's the opposite of Eckstein - no reputation for grit, feistiness, heart, etc.
http://umpbump.com/press/digging-into-the-mysterious-case-of-kyle-lohse/
So instead of the Eckstein Premium for mediocre performance, he gets the Lohse Discount for mediocre performance. (The midpoint of those two would have been - the Encarnacion sweet spot - average pay for mediocre performance.)
Lohse=Quasi Respectable
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
28,175,199,55,115,25,9,12,4.90
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Mar 18, 2008 3:06 PM EDT reply actions
Lohse
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
30,180,189,60,110,22,12,10,3.98
It happened on a Sunday afternoon, August 22, 1982.
by Glenn Brummer stole home on Mar 18, 2008 4:19 PM EDT reply actions
Lohse projection: League average-ish innings eater
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
31,187,211,60,114,22,11,11,4.64
That makes for a 1.45 WHIP. If I had more faith in our defense (especially infield), I'd nudge many of those numbers downward into slightly more favorable territory. Alas, I do not yet have faith that our defense will be significantly improved over the last 2 years.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
Lohse...
28,185,210,56,122,25,10,13,5.32
"The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it."
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
30,205,195,62,145,15,15,10,4.10
"when we say strength we mean kettlebell,when we say kettlebell we mean strength"
trying to remember
tho I am a Cards fan, I live in the Cincinnati TV area and thus see a lot of Reds' games on the tube.
I know that on the days Lohse started, George Grande etc seemed to hold their breath and have that kind of wispy 'we'll probably lose today' tinge in their voices. Not as bad as WE did with the Kipper, but there was some heavy aura reason.
Best I can remember it was something like "which Lohse will show up today" -- therefore I wonder if his 'innings eating' creds are more bell-shaped than flat line. Not like Suppan's six innings virtually every time out; more like eight innings one game and three innings the next.
I obviously hope he does well, and I don't think he is another Wells, but I have my queases.
I'll feel better when Clement, Mulder, and Carp are able to pitch again.
He looked fairly reliable in 2007
I went back and checked his game-by-game logs, and he made 34 appearances and 32 starts (2 appearances were from the pen rather than starts after he was traded to Philly).
Of those 32 starts, he went 6+ innings in 22 of them (68.75%), and 15 of those were "quality" starts. He had 2 complete games in 2007, with one of them being a CG Shutout (granted, it was against PIT). He also had two other appearances where he went into the 8th.
Naturally, he also had several very poor showings where he was pulled after only a handful of innings, but overall he was a pretty reliable innings eater in 2007. With nearly 70% of all starts going 6+ and nearly 50% being "quality starts," he looks like a pretty safe bet...especially for the money.
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
No idea here
I don't even want to venture a guess about Lohse. I hope he eats a lot of innings, though. I think he has the potential to have a very positive effect on the bullpen's performance by saving their arms a bit. I will be bold, however, and predict that Izturis will be terrible. The is one projection I am comfortable making.
One other random thought here: I am very excited to see what Brian Barton is going to do this year. It is looking more and more like he will make the team and I can't tell you how happy that makes me.
Billy Crystal is a tougher out than Izturis.
Lohse
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
24,157,140,67,15,9,7,4.36
Lohse as a Goose
GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
27,159,172,48,132,19,11,12,4.49
hope is eternal in the spring
Big year!
30,178,185,40,131,17,13,9,4.08
Lohse will have a better than average Lohse year based on:
1. Yadier and LaRue.
2. He'll try hard to shed doubts teams have re: Boras and put the focus on signing a MLB pitcher, not a "client".
3. He'll do his best to make good on a one year deal with 3-4 years hanging on the results. A great year of course, means $'s more.
4. I really want him to.
"Son, we'd like to keep you around for the season but we're gonna try to win the pennant." Old Casey
If you want to throw up in your mouth
look at what Strauss believes LaRussa will have as the Opening Day lineup:
1. RF Skip Schumaker
2. LF Ryan Ludwick
3. 1B Albert Pujols
4. 3B Troy Glaus
5. CF Rick Ankiel
6. C Yadier Molina
7. 2B Aaron Miles
8. P Adam Wainwright
9. SS Cesar Izturis
But hey, a loss on Opening Day won't lose us the pennant.
Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS
by Hardcore Legend on Mar 19, 2008 3:57 AM EDT reply actions
better late than never
30,200,175,100,155,20,18,10,4.02
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson
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