community projection: kyle lohse

after his simulated game yesterday, kyle lohse told the post-dispatch: "My slider has pretty much always been my go-to pitch. I can throw it for a strike at any count, or run it off the plate a little bit. … I did that today." the available numbers back that up. according to josh kalk’s compilations from pitch/FX data, in 2007 lohse threw his slider nearly a third of the time:

overall vs RHB vs LHB
fastball   47   52   43
slider   29   29   30
change   17   13   20
curve    7    6    7

this is far from a complete sample --- neither of lohse’s home ballparks last year (cincinnati and philadelphia) was wired for FX, so these kalkulations (get it?) are based on only 900 or so pitches (about 1/3 of lohse’s overall tosses). the new pitch-type data at fangraphs, which come from a different source (Baseball Info Solutions), cover all 3000 of lohse’s pitches from 2007; they show kyle throwing the slider with slightly less frequency (53 percent FB, 23 percent SL, 18 percent CH, 6 percent CU), but the relative proportions are about the same.

i want to return to josh kalk’s smaller sample for a second, because it shows platoon breakouts. lohse’s tendency to throw the slider in equal proportion to right / left batters is rare. most pitchers feature the slider less often against lefties; that's true even among pitchers who throw a lot of sliders. for example, sliders represent 37 percent of all the pitches john smoltz throws --- but the proportion is 44 percent against righties, only 31 percent vs lefties. jeremy bonderman (also 37 percent overall) threw it 43 percent vs right-handers, 31 percent vs lefties. among lohse's new teammates on the cardinals, ryan franklin throws his slider 22 percent of the time --- 36 percent against right-handers, 7 percent against lefties. for adam wainwright, the proportions are 20 percent overall, 30 percent vs right-handed hitters, 9 percent vs left-handers. the only pitcher i found who had a similar platoon (non)split with respect to the slider was --- ladies, better hang on to your boyfriends --- jason marquis, another frustrating hurler to whom lohse has been compared in the past.

kalk’s numbers also amply illustrate lohse’s statement that the slider is his "go-to" pitch. check out his percentages last year a) when he had 2 strikes on the hitter, and b) when he was ahead in the count:

overall 2 str
(249 pp)
ahead
(262 pp)
fastball   47   41   39
slider   29   36   41
change   17   20   18
curve    7    3    6

when he’s ahead in the count (ie, 0-1, 0-2, or 1-2) he throws the slider more than any other pitch; on 2-strike counts (0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2) it runs a close second to the fastball. on the pivotal 2-2 count, he threw the slider as often as the fastball (albeit in a small sample of only 60 pitches).

well, so much for the preliminaries. please give me the following 9 numbers in comma-delimited (no spaces) format for kyle lohse:

    GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

i’ll share the results on thursday.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Viva El Birdos

You must be a member of Viva El Birdos to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Viva El Birdos. You should read them.

Join Viva El Birdos

You must be a member of Viva El Birdos to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Viva El Birdos. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker