NL Central community projection results

by azruavatar on Mar 14, 2008 1:22 AM EDT in News

A major player in the Cardinals success over the last 10 years left the organization last night. Mark Lamping was with the Cardinals as Team President for 13 years hiring on Walt Jocketty way back in 1995 to be the General Manager. Bernie Miklasz takes a look at Lamping's ups and downs as well as his probable successor, Bill DeWitt III.

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There were a healthy 54 projections in last weeks post. You can download the spreadsheet here -- I've got the usernames recorded as well so we can see who was drinking and predicting at the end of the year. VEB-ers expect the Cubs to win the division but only by a hair.

	Astros	Brewers	Cardinals	Cubs	Pirates	Reds
Max	88	94	89	96	78	90
Average	75.0	87.5	78.2	87.7	69.5	81.2
Standard Dev.	4.32	2.67	5.59	3.03	3.41	4.12
Min	68	83	68	78	63	69

For those of you that aren't math fans, think of standard deviation as a plus-minus range for the average. So we really expect the Astros to fall within 70 and 79 wins. Another way to interpret those numbers is how much the predictions were in agreement with each other. A high standard deviation implies that there is less agreement and the numbers are more scattered than a low standard deviation.

Here's a scary standard deviation trick: If the Cardinal came out at the bottom of their range and the Pirates at the top, they'd be tied for dead last.

If we ruled the world (which after LBoros calling for Kyle Lohse's signing and then the signing occurring, I think we do, in fact, rule the world), the NL Central would finish like this:

Cubs
Brewers
Reds
Cardinals
Astros
Pirates

I'm shocked that everyone sees the Cardinals as holding par this offseason. Let's see who is making gains compared to last year.

	Actual Wins	Predicted Wins	Change	Pythag Wins	Predicted Wins	Change
Astros	73	75	2	72	75	3
Brewers	83	88	5	83	88	5
Cardinals	78	78	0	71	78	7
Cubs	85	88	3	87	88	1
Pirates	68	70	2	69	70	1
Reds	72	81	9	74	81	7

Our predictions would mean that the Central is going to pick up 21 wins over their actual win total last year pushing the division from a .472 winning percentage to a .493 -- while that gain seems substantial, and I think it is, at least we still recognize the Central is a sub .500 division. Apparently, I did a super job on selling the Reds as a possible sleeper team because they easily make the biggest leap in win total. The other thing that immediately jumps out at me is that no team gets worse under our predictions. When was the last time an entire division held steady or won more games than the previous year? Has that ever happened before?

Let's see how we stack up against a pair of proven player projection systems.

	VEB	PECOTA	CHONE	Rank
Astros	75	73	75	5
Brewers	88	88	84	2
Cardinals	78	74	75	4
Cubs	88	91	87	1
Pirates	70	72	75	6
Reds	81	81	78	3

Everyone is in general agreement on the order, if not the wins, of the teams. While the addition of Lohse should be something of an upgrade over Thompson/Wellemeyer, he's really replacing Clement/Pineiro until one of them gets healthy. Think about that for a second -- since we made our forecast a week ago, the Cardinals lost Joel Pineiro and Tyler Johnson for the start of the season and we haven't seen any progress on the Matt Clement front. I like the Lohse deal given the $$$ and the years but it doesn't really represent headway given the medical condition of our pitching staff. It does make me question, yet again, the two year Pineiro deal but I digress.

Looks like it could be a long season in the Lou if the Cardinals are a sub-.500 team again. I think that the front office can rest easy in that it will probably take 2-3 years of being mediocre-to-bad before it impacts ticket sales. We saw gains across the board for the NL Central as fans who are probably a little more obsessed than the casual observer. Imagine what someone who just watches a game a week or so is expecting. The perception of contention won't wear off quickly after 2006 but it will eventually. But hey, look on the brightside -- at least we aren't the Pirates!

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While I have your attention, there are open projection threads at Future Redbirds again this week for Allen Craig and Adam Ottavino. You don't need to be an expert on our minor leaguers to make a prediction. You don't need to like prospects. What I do want is a larger sampling pool, so head on over and drop your thoughts -- it only takes a moment!

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Here's your gameday link: STL at LA Dodgers

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Comments

I actually like our rotation

if the BS the management is spinning is actually true (that Pineiro and Clement might actually be ready for Opening Day).

If that's the case, I'll take my chances with:
Wainwright
Reyes
Pineiro
Clement
Lohse

To go along with Mulder replacing whoever sucks come May 1st (again, if they are to be believed).

More than likely, though, Wainwright will be the only above average starter, Reyes will be BiPolar, they will leave Looper in the rotation for no reason, Lohse will be average and Pineiro will be getting 2nd opinions on his schedueled surgery sometime around Tax Day.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 14, 2008 1:26 AM EDT 0 recs

hmmm

I like that everyone is considering Lohse like a suppan-ish starter, innings eater, pitch to contact.

but the reason suppan did so well in stl. compared to the brewers and pirates is because he had 3-4 golden glove defenders behind him every year he was here, pujols, rolen, edmonds, walker, renteria, so he could pitch to contact and be saved by the defense, thus giving him a better era and more wins. When he left for the offensive but utterly less defensive brewers, his era was very high even though it looked all year like he was pitching just like he was with the cards.

So i believe that lohse will be an average starter with the cardinals, decent innings eater, but won't have a wonderful year like suppan's were. His ERA will be around league average, and he'll have a year like he had with the reds last year, decent but not great.

When mulder/clement/pineiro return from minor league/extended ST games and someone is struggling, he'll obviously replace whoever isn't doing too well (obviously replace welly/thompson, whichever of those two are still in the rotation)

Reyes will have a good year this year, he had a sophomore slump and couldn't get it together, but i'm sure he's much more prepared this time around and will be a decent pitcher.

If the cards are well out of contention when Carp gets back, have carp pitch in the bullpen like we did with Matt Morris way back when so his arm will be fine for 2009. If the cards are somehow in contention (with a sucky NL central) and if Carp seems to be good to pitch 5-7 innings, have him return to the rotation.

I can see a starting rotation being
Wainer
Looper
Lohse
Reyes
Welly/piniero (if healthy)

and finishing up with a rotation of

Wainer
Mulder
Looper
Clement/Reyes (depending on who's doing good)
Piniero/Lohse

Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)

by cardwash on Mar 14, 2008 2:29 AM EDT 0 recs

And

If clement or lohse are doing pretty good and we're out of contention, hello trading for minor leaguers at the trade deadline....i'd take a good 3b minor leaguer if Freese doesn't do so hot, and starting pitching/lefty relievers are always good too.

Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)

by cardwash on Mar 14, 2008 2:37 AM EDT up 0 recs

trade deadline

Young middle infielders

"Textbooks are Soviet propaganda" - Rev. Jerry Falwell

by elirock83 on Mar 14, 2008 9:44 AM EDT up 0 recs

and pitching

of course

"Textbooks are Soviet propaganda" - Rev. Jerry Falwell

by elirock83 on Mar 14, 2008 9:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

Prediction seems to underestimate the Cardinals

It seems that VEB voters are underestimating the Cardinals by a significant margin in projecting only 78 wins this year.

The sabermatricians predict the Cardinals will score more runs this year.

The defense should be at least a little better.

The bullpen should be about as good.

The team should be healthier with the younger players added.

Above all, each of the five rotation slots should be filled by better performance than last year, some by a large margin.

There are more than enough rotation candidates to make the odds very good that a solid rotation will emerge early on (average would be a huge improvement over last year) and a very strong rotation in the second half is within the realm of possibility now that Lohse has been added to stabilize the rotation and take pressure off the bullpen:

Compare how performance in each of the five rotation slots should be better, looking at Cardinal starters last year with at least 64 IP, in order of IP, compared with the likely starters this year:

Wainwright (202 IP) should be better (his last four months last year were excellent and much better than his first two months)

Looper (175) will be as bad as he was last year but he'll be replaced by a better pitcher before June (Mulder or Wellemeyer or Parisi or McClellan) and then replaced by an even better pitcher in July (Carpenter)

Lohse should be a big improvement even if he's average, providing about 32 starts, replacing the 25 awful starts by Wells (163) and the 7 even worse starts by Maroth (38) in 2007

Pineiro should provide better performance than Thompson (129) did last year

Clement should replace the very poor performance by Reyes (107) with at least average performance

As I've noted elsewhere, the improved offense and greatly improved rotation this year should yield a run differential that is positive by a clear margin, in contrast to a -104 run differential last year. I don't expect this team to play in October, but I think the bulk of VEB bloggers will be very surprised by how well this team competes.

As Mark Twain might say, "Reports of the death of this team's hopes for a winning season are premature."

I'd bet even money that this team will win 85 games or more.

Good pitching will always stop good hitting, and vice versa. ~ Casey Stengel

by CardsWin on Mar 14, 2008 5:02 AM EDT 0 recs

I hope so...

But I don't see how the defense is better, for one. At best it's a wash from last year, with Glaus and Izturis equaling Rolen & no range, weak armed Eck. But Izturis has not been good defensively for a while, either, and the numbers are mixed on Glaus.

The rest is pretty much the same. Better back up catcher, I guess.

Pitching, well, I think it's going to be a complete trainwreck beyond Wainwright (who will be above average) and Lohse (who is pretty much plain average). I don't expect Pineiro to be very good (he was very lucky last year), nor Thompson, nor Reyes. Clement will probably struggle for most of the year, since he's not recovered from his injury yet. And I think Mulder will be another Maroth when he comes back. I guess we'll see about a month or two of Carpenter, which will give him a tune up for next year, I guess.

I also have some serious doubts about the bullpen. It had sprung some leaks last year, and is now missing its best member (Percival)

by DiscoJer on Mar 14, 2008 6:21 AM EDT up 0 recs

Defense and Vegas

First, I think it's kinda funny that VEB estimated the win total so near the over/under Vegas placed.

In regards to defense, I don't really see us as improved. I think Izturis will be an upgrade over Eck, but I don't think it's going to be that huge of difference. At third base, Glaus is servicable, but Rolen saved a LOT of runs with his glove. In center, Edmonds had lost a step but wasn't out there everyday. Ankiel has a good arm and all, but sometimes takes bad routes and is still learning the position. I would consider him a wash compared to Taguchi/Edmonds or a marginal improvement at best. All other positions are the same.

Additionally, if Albert's elbow blows, you lose a Gold Glove at first for Chris Duncan or Joe Mather.

Any marginal improvement at other positions is countered by the large hit you take in losing Rolen. I don't see the defense as improved at all.

I also think you are optimistic on our rotation. I hope you are right. But, Piniero is already showing pitching shoulder problems. His career line isn't that much off Thompson's 2007, so I think you are stretching to say he's going to provide better performance than WonderBrad.

Matt Clement is trying to come back from an injury that most pitchers never come back the same from. Counting on him to improve the rotation seems overly optimistic also. I think Reyes putting it all together is a better gamble than Clement replacing him.

by RedbirdRay on Mar 14, 2008 10:05 AM EDT up 0 recs

I agree with your points...

however, it appears evident to me that we can expect Skip to start a lot of games in center, and he is a plus defender there...also if Barton sticks around he'll pick up most of the rest of the CF starts and his defense appears to be better than average, though his arm is apparently weak. I think Ankiel will start fewer than 25 games in center this year.

I don't see Izturus being around past May...truthfully if we can get out of part of his contract by cutting him in Spring Training I hope we do. If I'm right Ryan becomes the starting SS, and his defense is much better than Ecksteins...he'll make his share of mistakes a la Renteria...but he's a plus defensive SS.

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Mar 14, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

I agree with you completely ...

I'm also a little disappointed in the negative team projections I've seen here ... maybe I'm too much the optomist ... but I truly think things are going to be better than expected ... I hope the team will take this as motivation to prove the naysayers wrong ... shoot for 90 wins guys ... and hopefully hit 88 ... that will do it ...

I also think you are over-estimating the competition ... this is the NL Central ... the Cubs are the Cubs and their organization sucks ... the Brewers will still be head-cases and are led by Yost ... I think we'll compete against their likes ... we'll see ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 14, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up 0 recs

I go back and forth

on how optimistic I am about this year's team. The Optimist in me thinks that simply getting rid of Wells and Maroth helps our rotation (who can really be as bad as Wells -- seriously?) Plugging in average-crappy pitchers would be an improvement over the monumentally-crappy performance Wells delivered last year. Also, is it really possible for Kennedy and Reyes to suck as bad as last year? It seems out of line with their careers. Seriously, a .219 average? C'mon -- he HAS to do better than that, right? I guess its just hard to see everything going wrong again -- injury after injury, Hancock's death, Speizio's addiction, etc.

On the other hand . . . We didn't really do anything to improve the team, except acquired Glaus and Lohse. Also, Albert could blow out his elbow. Season's done, if that happens.

by Ray Lankford on Mar 14, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

Would you really take

our pitching staff over either of theirs? How about our lineup over either of theirs? We're stronger at 1B, and arguably C than either team. We're probably stronger at 3B than the Brewers. We're probably stronger at Closer than the Brewers as long as Izzy stays healthy. Aside from that, I doubt there's a single position where we're stronger than either team -- 1st starter through 5th or any spot in the bullpen.

Everything in the world would have to go right for this team to even approach 88 wins and, considering the present health of the pitching staff, that ship has likely already sailed.

This year should be all about evaluating younger players, both at the major-league level and the minor-league level. Number of wins is not a good barometer to measure the Cards' progress this season.

by houstoncardinal on Mar 14, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

Even perennial optimists

usually recognize that they can't expect all of their rosy predictions to come true, but you're apparently one who can't anticipate a single setback or disappointment, even though every season always contains plenty of those. A confirmed pessimist like me, on the other hand, can all too easily see this dysfunctional-looking team slipping below the Pirates, to whom I don't feel as smugly superior as some of the posters on this board.

by MikeG on Mar 14, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up 0 recs

As the saying goes

A pessimist is someone who has had to listen to too many optimists.

With no evidence to the contrary: Colby Rasmus is clutch.

by joker24 on Mar 14, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Group think

Since we all read each other's thoughts here its clear that we get locked into a shared negative perspective. Plus I think chronic blog-readers are by nature more pessimistic - I enjoy complaining and being critical that's for sure.

We probably have too much information or are too confident in our knowledge. I think Phil Tetlock's work on the perils and inaccuracies of "expert" political knowledge translate to this community's projections as well.

by enoscountry on Mar 14, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

One thing you're forgetting is that

this team overperformed by 7 games last year. This team should've had a 71-91 record based on runs scored and runs against so even a modest improvement in runs scored, as you suggest, gets them close to 78 wins, not 85 or more.

As for your statement that we are underestimating the Cards but even "the sabermetricians predict the Cards will score more runs" -- we foresee a better season from the Cards than do either PECOTA or CHONE -- as AZ demonstrated above. So, it's hard to criticize VEB's fanbase for underestimating the team when we seem to feel more sanguine about the team than do the sabermetric sources that you say forecast a more robust offense. What must PECOTA and CHONE feel about the Cards' pitching and defense?

by houstoncardinal on Mar 14, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

The Cardinals did not overperform last year

Houstoncarinal, you raise a good question but the notion that the Cardinals overperformed last year is a fallacy. It is based on the simple arithmetic of run differential, ignoring the much more informative analysis of variance in runs allowed and runs scored.

As I noted yesterday, just in the games which Kip Wells started in 2007 the Cardinal run differential was -79. In games started by Mike Maroth the differential was -25. By odd coincidence, those two differentials add up to -104, exactly equal to the Cardinals' run differential for 2007. In the three starts by Mulder, who was much too weak to have rejoined the team when he did, the cardinals had an additional 13-run negative differential.

The Cardinals' record in games Wells and Maroth started was 9-24. (And I'm not even adding in the negative run differential for Anthony Reyes, who will not be with the team this year, much less in the rotation, unless he performs much, much better than he did last year.) If an average pitcher (hello, Kyle Lohse) had replaced the 32 starts by Wells and Maroth, the predictable record would have been 16-16 in those 32 games. That's a 7 game improvement, enough to have tied the Cardinals with the Cubs at season's end.

Good pitching will always stop good hitting, and vice versa. ~ Casey Stengel

by CardsWin on Mar 14, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

So your point is that

the Cards would have won 7 more games out of the 33 started by Maroth and Wells if Lohse had started those 33 games? Why is that? Your point is that the Cards would have won more games out of those 33 b/c they would have given up fewer runs, correct? Thus, the difference between an average pitcher and weaker pitchers? Therefore, to extend your analogy, the Cards would have won more games if they had given up fewer runs, true? So, if the Cards had a better run differential, they would have won more games and finished closer to .500. Doesn't this make my point that run differential matters?

My comment about the Cards underperforming was based on their poor run differential. Your point seems to be that run differential over the course of the season is irrelevant, yet you attempt to prove your point by saying that if the Cards' run differential had been lower, they would have won more games. You seem to be acknowledging what sabermetric analysis has stated for some time -- that run differential, though not definitive, is predictive over the course of a season.

by houstoncardinal on Mar 14, 2008 10:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

Run differential analysis can be too simplistic

One team, say the Diamondbacks, might have five games with scores of 3-2, 4-3, 3-5, 4-3, 3-4 and yield a run differential of -1 but have a record of 3-2.

Another team, say the Reds, might have five games with scores of 7-2, 6-3, 4-5, 5-6, and 3-7 and yield a run differential of +1 but have a record of 2-3.

Thus, the Diamondbacks had the best record last year in the NL, and a negative run differential.

The Cardinals' run differential last year was grossly skewed by performance out of just one of the five rotation slots (filled by Wells and Maroth, in effect). It's like a six foot guy swimming in a pool with water 5 feet deep over 80% of its width, but 15 feet deep in that last 20%. The average height differential will be -1 over the entire pool, yet 80% of the time the guy will be standing with his head above water, no problem.

Am I drowning in this analogy? : )

Good pitching will always stop good hitting, and vice versa. ~ Casey Stengel

by CardsWin on Mar 14, 2008 5:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

run differential studies are very simple

but they're also very accurate. there's a 25-year body of research on this. in the long term, run differential is a more accurate gauge of team quality than wins. it's not really a matter of opinion.

that doesn't mean the cardinals are doomed to fail. but you can't just dismiss their run differential from last year as meaningless. it is very meaningful --- one more hurdle this team will have to overcome if they're going to contend.

by lboros on Mar 14, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

I follow pythagorean records for all MLB

teams every season, and have seen several examples of teams who suffer a strange early-season pattern -- for instance, a fair number of losses by huge margins, combined with a lot of 1-run wins -- that resulted in a pythagorean "overperformance" of 5-8 games by June. In many of those cases that overperformance gap never closes for the rest of the season, even if the team settles into a more normal distribution of wins for the last 4 months.

I'm a believer in run differentials, but I think we need to admit that for some teams -- those who suffer a lot of really awful blowouts due to a couple of inconsistent starting pitchers, for instance -- run differentials don't tell us as much as we think they do. The 2007 Cards are a perfect example of a team in that position.

by MdRedbirdFreak on Mar 14, 2008 10:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

I believe that

teams who perform better in close games -- generally, teams w/ better bullpens -- are more likely to overperform their run differentials over the course of a season. I don't have any evidence to support that though I'd be willing to bet there's some out there.

That doesn't mean, however, that run differentials are irrelevant. They are very predictive of wins and losses throughout the course of a season.

by houstoncardinal on Mar 14, 2008 11:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yay for evidence

This was discussed over at THT by Sal. It's not necessarily a good overall bullpen but one that uses leveraging. The idea being the good pitchers come in and hold the tight games while the crappy pitchers soak up innings and cause some hefty blowouts. That's basically a derivative of the first example that he gives of distorted run distributions rather than a second point unto itself, imo.

That said this cherry picking of pitchers who had bad differentials is bogus. It ignores regression for pitchers like Springer and Izzy as well as the fact that there's no guarantee the pitchers taking those starts this year are going to be better. Given the health of Pineiro, Clement, Mulder and Carpenter why is anyone at all confident that they're not going to get shelled when they come back.

by azruavatar on Mar 15, 2008 3:12 AM EDT up 0 recs

Run differentials correlate with wins except when data are skewed

Larry, I'm certainly not dismissing run differentials nor calling them meaningless nor questioning the fact that run differential correlates with wins and losses. What I am saying, as McRedbirdFreak and houstoncardinal aptly point out, is that the correlation between run differential and wins is far from perfect, especially when the distribution of runs scored and allowed is so extremely skewed that a simplistic, linear analysis does become virtually meaningless. Kinda like Newtonian physics applies well on a pool table but not in space or in subatomic particles.

In fact, the run differential can be downright incongruent with what the Pythagorean Formula would predict when the data are skewed, as in the case of the Diamondbacks last year and even more so in the case of the Cards.

by CardsWin on Mar 15, 2008 3:18 AM EDT up 0 recs

Az -

Did I miss your Brewers season preview or is that still forthcoming?

by cardsgirl95 on Mar 14, 2008 8:34 AM EDT 0 recs

That was the week I was sick and

having hallucinatory dreams.

Link

by azruavatar on Mar 14, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

I remember now.

Thanks for clearing that up for me.

by cardsgirl95 on Mar 14, 2008 10:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

standard deviation

I think one reason why the cards have the biggest gap is simple. This is a cardinal blog, so some people are predicting doom while others angels singing. Its just human nature. Although its still scary, that the cards could be as bad as the pirates.

"Textbooks are Soviet propaganda" - Rev. Jerry Falwell

by elirock83 on Mar 14, 2008 9:49 AM EDT 0 recs

Duncan's problem this spring

Based on his Gameday photo, it seems that someone sewed his eyes shut

by tdawg on Mar 14, 2008 1:54 PM EDT 0 recs

yup

looks more like a mugshot

I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Mar 14, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

Green fog

Looks more like he's been hanging out with Matty Mo listening to a little space cowboy...

by cloistermaximus on Mar 14, 2008 2:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Flip a coin

I really don't have an idea of how this team is going to perform.

I think the OF offense is going to be OK. I think Duncan and Ankiel can be 30 HR guys, and the other components, Schu, Mather (I think Juan G will prove to be too big of a health risk), Barton and Ludwick will be OK. And at some point Rasmus is going to be on board.

If Glaus and Albert are healthy, they should be OK. One hopes that Yadi continues to improve like he did in 2007.

Yes, middle IF is an issue, but Ryan can probably play one of the spots and the Cards can find someone for the other spot. Hitting at SS and 2B is the least of their worries.

The starting pitching is the biggest variable (doh!). And who really knows who is going to be healthy, or if Reyes or Thompson can take the ball regularly and be serviceable. If the starters can keep the ERA in the 4.50 to 4.75 range, I expect the Cards to be at least a .500 team.

But it's really impossible to predict, given the number of variables.

Which, IMO, will make it a fun season--who knows what to expect?

Dave

by Sydney dave on Mar 14, 2008 2:05 PM EDT 0 recs

Looks like Mortensen was having himself a nice

game until the 4th inning came along.

by BTown Birds fan on Mar 14, 2008 2:15 PM EDT 0 recs

Okay, I'll eat 'em

I'm officially eating my words on Adam Kennedy. At this point, it is definitely NOT worth $7.5 million to DFA him.

Way to turn things around, Adam. Here's hoping he keeps it up!

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Mar 14, 2008 2:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Amen to that ...

He has really come around ... as good as he has been his whole career (minus last year), it was mind-boggling that, without an injury to account for it, he could play that badly again ... I hope he has a solid year ...

I also hope Isturis takes some inspiration from it ... it seems like their intent on him ... I hope he starts contributing ... maybe Tony will shake him up ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 14, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

As Joe Strauss said yesterday on the radio

this has to be the weakest .333 ever seen. He's hitting weak singles to raise his batting average and hasn't really shown much improvement at the plate.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 14, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

Duncan

Am I the only one worried about him? He's at .045 now and is striking out a ton.

If it's his back like some of you have been saying, then why is he playing?

Perhaps it's a delayed sophomore slump.

Unofficial President of the Skip Schumaker Fan Club

by stltrav09 on Mar 14, 2008 2:23 PM EDT 0 recs

You're not the only one ...

I've been worrying about him for awhile now ... but, like Hardcore, I think he'll be alright ... he's very streaky, and I think he'll come back gangbusters before the end of spring ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 14, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

BABIP

Duncan's BABIP is below .100 though, I am worried but not much. I think either he is having very bad luck or he just isn't making hard contact yet.

by StLHugo on Mar 14, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

Ron Villone

Still hasn't given up a run this spring. Is he actually gonna make the team? I expect Politte to get cut soon.

Unofficial President of the Skip Schumaker Fan Club

by stltrav09 on Mar 14, 2008 2:39 PM EDT 0 recs

I think he's a shoe in at this point ...

We're desperate for a reliable lefty reliever right now, and he appears to fit the bill ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 14, 2008 2:41 PM EDT 0 recs

A nice inning

from Randy Flores too ... 1.50 ERA so far this spring ... I hope that continues.

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 14, 2008 2:51 PM EDT 0 recs

Got to love the 6th Inning

Ground out Ryan (playing 3rd) to Phelps
Fielding error Izturis
Fielding error Kennedy
Double steal
Intentional Walk
Strike Out
Ground out Ryan to Phelps

Nothing like making a pitcher get 5 outs, and work in stressful situations boys...

"If I managed the Cubs, I'd be an Alcoholic." - Whitey Herzog

by cyko42 on Mar 14, 2008 2:54 PM EDT 0 recs

Izturis ...

3 weeks ... 5 errors ... where's this defense I keep hearing about? ... I wish the best for the guy, but he's really on my nerves ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 14, 2008 3:03 PM EDT 0 recs

Keeping Ankiel OUT of Center Field

I am of the opinion that Rick Ankiel should not be the Cardinal CF this season. I think Rick needs to play RF, as long term that is where he will end up for the Cards.

If Rasmus doesn't break camp as the starting CF, then Schumaker or Barton can range out there. By Ankiel playing exclusively RF, he'll get the hang of playing the position he'll play in the Rasmus era. I think it makes sense.

Plus, there is a general opinion that your best OF arm should be in RF. I don't think anyone the Cards have will challenge Ankiel's cannon.

by mwinf12 on Mar 14, 2008 3:16 PM EDT 0 recs

maybe not

but rasmus was clocked at throwing 94 mph in high school...

IMO if rasmus doesn't make the team- which he shouldn't- we are going to need Ludwick and Ankiel's bats in the lineup nearly every game this year; we can't afford to waste an OF position on a weak bat like Schumakers, even in CF.

Great job by Garcia to pitch around that throwing error!

play skip at second base.

by SleepyCA on Mar 14, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

I Totally agree with you mwin12 ...

Schu should be the starting CF ... Ankiel seems to have lapses out there, and I like him better in RF ... I'm also a little worried about Rick getting injured out there ...

Speaking of Rick ... what a day! ... 2 HR, 4 RBI and a .386 average ... way to go dude!!!

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 14, 2008 3:33 PM EDT 0 recs

FWIW

that throwing error was on rasmus (E9), not ankiel, according to brian walton at the birdhouse. Gameday is apparently wrong.

He said it was a "great running catch" though, and a run was going to score no matter what, so there was no harm done by the error.

play skip at second base.

by SleepyCA on Mar 14, 2008 3:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

The Cards

just cannot hold a lead this spring..Hope this doesn't carry over into the season.

by ridgesee on Mar 14, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Actually ...

I didn't even know Gameday had attributed an error to Rick when I typed that ... it was a general remark ... the play that sticks in my mind the most is when he kicked a misplayed ball in center a couple of days ago ... I think is a good center fielder, and he'll get his chances there ... I just think Skip is better and should start CF ... I like Ank in Right ... if it goes the other way, it's fine ... they're both good.

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 14, 2008 3:45 PM EDT 0 recs

Rasmus

Man, that .459 obp is completely off the charts. Talk about having a good batter's eye. The guy is batting .286 and has a 1.030 ops. Yowza!

So says, The Dude

by Titus Pullo on Mar 14, 2008 3:46 PM EDT 0 recs

Hey

we might win back to back games!

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Mar 14, 2008 3:48 PM EDT 0 recs

Back to back it is!

Another entertaining game ... what a day for Ankiel ... his OPS, which was already pretty high, just went way up ... Adam should be pitching tomorrow ... can anyone spell 'three in a row' ???

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 14, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

We take the lead ...

on three walks and wild pitch! ... we'll take it anyway we can get it ... make it hold up, someone (hopefully izzy, if he's there) ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 14, 2008 3:49 PM EDT 0 recs

Castellanos ...

three quick outs please ...

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 14, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

how about that...

brendan ryan scoring from second on a wild pitch? That has to give his s+s rating a boost (unless he did it standing up...)

play skip at second base.

by SleepyCA on Mar 14, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Dodgers

walk four straight and wild pitch in 9th. Castellanos holds. Gameday says cards 6 dodgers 4 Can anyone explain that extra mystery run in the eighth.

by ridgesee on Mar 14, 2008 4:02 PM EDT 0 recs

excuse me

9th inning

by ridgesee on Mar 14, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

I believe 2 scored on the same wild pitch ...

Ryan scored all the way from second ... that kid needs to start ... at SS.

Culture of Winning: 10 World Championships, 17 Pennants, 6 Division Championships ...

by Cardinals4Ever on Mar 14, 2008 4:04 PM EDT 0 recs

Ok

that explains it the rundown didn't show it. The run just popped up there later.

by ridgesee on Mar 14, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

Who is it that is always talking about

Alexi Rameriz and how the Cardinals missed on him? Well, he broke up a 5 inning no hitter with a single-the pitcher was Rich Harden. And here's another surprise: he's been pitching well all spring-and pain free. Heck, the A's aren't even going to miss Haren if Harden stays on the mound. Of course, that's always a big if with him.......

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Mar 14, 2008 11:49 PM EDT 0 recs