Crazy Six Rotation

by Forsch31 on Mar 12, 2008 11:20 PM EDT

While everybody seems to be talking about LaRussa's (and the Brewers') decision to employ the Crazy 8 line-up again, I keep thinking about that other, less successful experiment last season--the six-man rotation LaRussa employed in August. It effectively derailed whatever playoff chances the Cardinals still had, but I think a lot of that is more due to Mike Maroth and Kip F. Wells being integral parts rather than the theory itself.

Even with the injury woes, the Cardinals have a good number of pitchers with starting experience; in addition to Wainwright and Looper, they have Thompson, Wellemeyer, and Reyes with Parisi from the farm and, in a pinch, Franklin. That combined with at least one of Pineiro and Clement being ready within the first month of the season. Even if they manage to pick up another starter, the number of guys who can make a start are there. The real issue is how durable those arms are. Wainwright is the only one with 200 innings at the major league level, that was just last season.

So, I think about the six-man rot. It could allow pitchers to go more innings in fewer starts, but I'm not sure if it would work. Would a longer lay-off actually cause more injuries? Or would it allow the Cardinals to protect a fragile but talented staff over the long haul of the season?

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piggyback

If we are going alternative with rotation, I'm a bigger fan of the piggyback rotation going with 2 "starters" for each game as opposed to trying to stretch out 6 starters. One of our minor league teams did it last year to positive results. If you want each starter to go deeper into games, it gives the hitters more looks at said pitcher. The more looks, the move the odds swing the hitters. That's the beauty of the piggyback scheme. Guys like Reyes or Thompson with a limited repertoire of pitches (or at least limited repertoire of effective pitches) can go 3-4 innings, see each hitter no more than twice, and not get overexposed. Do you think the Cardinals have 6 pitchers who can legitimately be counted on to go deep in every start? I don't. We need a deep bullpen based on what the Cards are passing off as a rotation. If you want to use 6 starters, piggyback two of them. That would be bold.

by jjray on Mar 13, 2008 12:10 AM EDT 0 recs

Not a bad idea...

'cept you have to go five innings as a starter to qualify for the win. I don't see guys being too willing to do it even if W/L records don't mean anything.

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Mar 13, 2008 9:36 AM EDT up 0 recs

i don't think...

... that Wellemeyer, Reyes, Thompson, Looper, Piniero, and Clement would have much of a choice.

by kindred on Mar 13, 2008 10:51 AM EDT up 0 recs

no victory for the starter

True, gotta go 5 innings if the your are the starter but two points. The goal is to win, not to showcase the best possible stats for the players, no? Second, the bottom guys in our rotation as it now stands don't look to garner many wins in any event. If you piggybacked two of them, they can flipflop at each joint start. The first guy has no chance at a win, only a loss. The second guys is in a good position as he gets credit if he comes in the 4th inning with a lead but not penalized for inheriting a game where we are behind.

by jjray on Mar 13, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't see it working, assuming

you'd want to give Wainer and Loop "regular" turns (pitching your best pitchers as often as you can); and giving "extra" rest to the rest of the staff. The Cards have only one "off" day in April, leading to this possible "rotation":

For example:
April 2: Wainer
April 3: Loop
April 4: Reyes
April 5: Wellemeyer
April 6: Thompson
April 7: Wainer
April 8: Loop
April 9: Piñiero
April 10: Reyes (5 days rest)
April 11: Wellemeyer (5 days rest)
April 12: Wainer (4 days rest)
April 13: Loop (4 days rest)
April 14: OPEN
April 15: Thompson (eight days rest!)
April 16: Piñiero (6 days rest)
April 17: Wainer (staying on four days rest)
April 18: Loop (ditto)
April 19: Reyes (eight days rest)
April 20: Wellemeyer (NINE days rest!)
April 21: Thompson (five days rest)
April 22: Wainer
April 23: Loop
April 24: Piñiero (seven days rest)
April 25: Reyes (five days rest)
April 26: Wellemeyer (five days rest)
April 27: Wainer
April 28: Loop
April 29: Thompson (eight days rest)
April 30: Piñiero (six days rest)

I don't see where any of your "other" pitchers develop any consistency this way; I think it's better to start with a five-man rotation, and "sub in" with returning starters as they get healthy.

"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

by The Ol Goaler on Mar 13, 2008 11:33 AM EDT 0 recs

why not?

If we are going to use Looper, Thompson, Wellemyer and who knows else as starting pitchers - when they clearly are not - I don't see any problem with a six pitcher rotation. In fact, I can think of many ideas less ludicrous than a rotation that includes three relief pitchers

rotate the defensive players (including pitchers) to a new position after each batter (ala volleyball).....if nothing else it would certainly confuse the hell out of the other team
start a relief pitcher on the mound and one in the outfield, when they begin to struggle...rotate
put all the starters in the pen, put all the relievers in the rotation

When I hear mgt talk (with a straight face) about the viability of three straight days of Looper, Thompson & Wellemeyer........my mind goes toward these ideas. My ideas above are really not that far beyond the current reality. The only difference is that the current reality has been talked about with a straight face for so long that it now seems somewhat normal.

and btw, don't mistake my rant for a cry for signing a bunch of overpaid below average starters......maybe the Cards are doing the best with a bad situation (injuries/drafts/market oddities).......I just find hilarity in the situation - expecially the part where they imply it's some sort of well thought out genius strategy

WE HAVE THREE RELIEVERS IN OUR ROTATION!

by Hinkster on Mar 13, 2008 1:39 PM EDT 0 recs

another idea

We're proceeding with no lead-off hitter (and acting like everything is ok), we're batting the pitcher 8th and we have 3 relievers in our rotation.

May I take a page from miniature golf and suggest bumper rails on the foul lines, a rotating windmill in short center and a giant clown's head in the hole to right of short.

by Hinkster on Mar 13, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

If anything, a 4-man rotation...

makes more sense. Our 3-6 starters are all long relievers dressed in starter pants anyway, so why would we want to give that group more starts?

In fact, a 4-man rotation makes a lot of sense for this team. It means more starts for Wainwright and anyone else who shows they can be consistently effective. It also means starters work shorter outings, and I like Pineiro/Thompson/Wellemeyer a lot more out of the pen. They each seem to either have it or not in any appearance, and there's much more leeway to pull them in the top of the 6th than in the top of the 1st.

Keith Woolner wrote a great chapter in Baseball Between the Numbers advocating the 4-man rotation. His (and other) research shows "short rest" doesn't increase injuries, high pitch counts do.

I've convinced myself - let's go with a 4-man rotation.

by bgodar on Mar 13, 2008 2:42 PM EDT 0 recs

I have been thinking about a six man rotation

since '06 when it was revealed that Carp's E.R.A. on five days of rest was in the low 1.00's. Could this be true for other pitchers too and what better year to try it? The Cardinals have a gazillion potential starters, particularly if they sign another one, and a bunch of guys coming back during the year. They might find that some guys, like Wainer or Lohse or whoever, will thrive in a six man rotation and it would allow them to gradually bring back the rehab guys without stressing them too much. I disagree with the piggy back idea though. I think we should expect greater success for more innings from the six starters and a smaller load for the reduced bull pen. I used to think teams should go back to 4 man rotations but, for whatever reasons, pitchers arms these days won't take that much work. Anyway I think there's some evidence that some pitchers may thrive on five days rest and I think we've got absolutely nothing to lose in trying it.

by easy on Mar 13, 2008 4:11 PM EDT 0 recs