community projection: joel pineiro

by lboros on Feb 5, 2008 8:32 AM EST in St. Louis Cardinals News

traveling traveling, always traveling; just a one-day trip today, driving around in the rockies in what appears to be a minor blizzard. i gotta make an early start, so this'll have to be a short post. if you want to discuss the juan gonzalez signing, there is a pretty good discussion going in this diary.

as for joel pineiro, the subject of today's projection: the second guaranteed year on his contract didn't thrill me at the time of the signing, and it looks worse to me in hindsight. so far this winter only one free-agent pitcher has signed a deal with more than one guaranteed year --- carlos silva at 4 / $48m. every other free-agent SP has signed on a one-year pact (albeit with an optional second year in some cases): jon lieber for $3.5m, jason jennings for $4m, josh towers for $1.8m, matt clement for $1.5m, etc etc --- and guys like lohse and livan and weaver and fogg are still floating around out there . . . . pineiro is guaranteed $8m in 2009. will that look like a good price at this time next year? if pineiro performs like he did in his 11 stl starts last year, it'll look like a bargain; if he reverts to his previous form . . . . let's hope it's the former.

please project pineiro's final 2008 totals in these categories:

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

as per usual: a) comma-delimit your projection, and b) go straight from the gut --- don't read everyone else's projections until after you've posted yours. if you want to check out his career stats, here you go.

if you're following the sim tournament, results are below.

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Comments

I'm first!

28,180,195,65,135,24,9,11,4.80

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Feb 5, 2008 8:51 AM EST reply actions

that quote is great!

n/t

by eglasier on Feb 5, 2008 9:46 AM EST up reply actions

Piniero

28,177,192,63,112,24,13,11,4.47

I'm feeling pretty good about Jo-el.

by roarke on Feb 5, 2008 9:04 AM EST reply actions

Joel P maybe too optimistic

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
30,200,220,70,120,20,10,10,4.20

I am overly optimistic for JP I think but who knows

by StLHugo on Feb 5, 2008 9:14 AM EST reply actions

JP

26,151,170,38,99,22,8,9,4.54

Not too bad...not too great. A lower walk rate will be his key to success in 2008.

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Feb 5, 2008 9:15 AM EST reply actions

not worth the $8m

21,116,140,40,62,19,7,10,4.68

JOSE OQUENDO!!!

by Sect163 on Feb 5, 2008 9:22 AM EST reply actions

pineiro's projections

26,171,196,60,118,18,11,10,4.48

these guys who aren't coming off of surgery are few and far between in our rotation. come on, joel!

larussa for mayor, pujols for president...

by redbirds6 on Feb 5, 2008 9:29 AM EST reply actions

Marquis -ish

29,166,180,54,110,21,10,9,4.94

by stl3bagger on Feb 5, 2008 9:31 AM EST reply actions

Here's hopin'...........

27,158,165,42,100,18,10,9,4.48

I recently flew from STL to MIA, and Joel was on my flight.

"Forget about the curveball Ricky...Give him the heater!!"

by BleacherBum on Feb 5, 2008 9:32 AM EST reply actions

come back year

30,195,201,62,128,23,15,10,3.88

by nybirdfan on Feb 5, 2008 9:34 AM EST reply actions

Pinhead

26,182,216,50,91,20,8,10,4.52

by sdelek on Feb 5, 2008 9:37 AM EST reply actions

Sigh

25,128,136,44,84,15,13,10,4.51,1.40

by arch support on Feb 5, 2008 9:42 AM EST reply actions

guesstimation

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
24,166,185,48,88,18,13,12,4.75

waiting for the 2009 season to begin

by cards4life on Feb 5, 2008 9:51 AM EST reply actions

Joel

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

27,170,205,55,110,15,10,10,4.60

WHIP: 1.52

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Feb 5, 2008 9:55 AM EST reply actions

Not convinced

26,160,180,52,105,23,7,10,4.90

by DCGreg on Feb 5, 2008 9:57 AM EST reply actions

Eh

26,156,175,40,95,15,9,13,4.80

"Dude, we're running out of stadium" - said on the way to our seats in Section 428.

by bukowski on Feb 5, 2008 10:03 AM EST reply actions

Mine

As always for me, it is assuming health.

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

32,193,208,46,123,29,16,12,4.19

stlfan

by stlfan on Feb 5, 2008 10:12 AM EST reply actions

Olbermann picked the giants on thursday

30,203,183,60,94,19,12,8,4.01

by barry whiteteeth on Feb 5, 2008 10:19 AM EST reply actions

my try

28,191,197,43,108,26,12,9,4.26

SUBURBS: Where Americans cut down trees and then name streets after them.

by beanocook on Feb 5, 2008 10:21 AM EST reply actions

ok

25,130,130,60,80,23,6,9,4.61

I'm a man, a manly, manly, man. Unknown

by Eckstreem on Feb 5, 2008 10:23 AM EST reply actions

time to get going.....

Looking for a bounce back year this year in the weak NL Central

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

28,190,189,54,145,24,15,11,4.25

by Jake7782 on Feb 5, 2008 10:23 AM EST reply actions

dave duncan special

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

30,170,180,40,108,18,12,8,4.23

i think most here will be pleasantly surprised with piniero. i really think he's the type of guy who thrives on duncan's game planning and preparation.

by indakind on Feb 5, 2008 10:29 AM EST reply actions

piniero

28,181,204,53,138,25,12,11,4.55

by jpbfrog on Feb 5, 2008 10:30 AM EST reply actions

stat line

30,180,40,100,25,10,10,4.65

by IC Cards Fan on Feb 5, 2008 10:31 AM EST reply actions

Forgot hits, disregard first line

30,180,194,40,100,25,10,10,4.65

by IC Cards Fan on Feb 5, 2008 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

Missing either...

innings or hits IC.

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Feb 5, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions

Hopefully....

he fits in this team as a no 4 or 5...not a 2

29,186,206,61,121,19,10,12,4.64

"You're either rebuilding for something special, or you're on the verge of something special. To be in between is foolish." Billy Beane

by bobbyballgame1 on Feb 5, 2008 10:37 AM EST reply actions

joel

30,192,202,44,137,21,12,13,4.37

-bwhitt

by bighitbwhitt on Feb 5, 2008 10:41 AM EST reply actions

Hope He's a Horse

29,196,204,52,84,21,12,10,4.47

by That's a Winner on Feb 5, 2008 10:43 AM EST reply actions

Pulling for Joel

GS IP H BB SO HR W L ERA
28, 190, 200, 55, 120, 22, 15, 10, 3.95

by Conebone69 on Feb 5, 2008 10:59 AM EST reply actions

I wonder how I will screw this up?

27,167,174,52,111,19,10,11,4.27

by Harknights on Feb 5, 2008 11:01 AM EST reply actions

Career average, again...

24,150,162,42,97,21,11,9,4.23

Maybe a slight improvement in walk rate and an NL adjusted ERA.

by ArkansasTravs on Feb 5, 2008 11:02 AM EST reply actions

Pineiro

league-avg durablility
30,177,193,60,88,23,12,12,4.50

I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.

by _pistol_ on Feb 5, 2008 11:06 AM EST reply actions

Pineiro Projections

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

30 179 170 43 102 13 13 9 4.29

by endlessticketscom on Feb 5, 2008 11:12 AM EST reply actions

you missed this... ?

LB: "as per usual: a) comma-delimit your projection"

"bury the dead, feed the survivors and rebuild the city" (marques do pombal, 1777)

by Johnny64 on Feb 5, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions

Joyous Pinetree

GS, IP, H, BB,SO,HR, W, L, ERA
30,180,180,45,135,24,12,10,4.20

"bury the dead, feed the survivors and rebuild the city" (marques do pombal, 1777)

by Johnny64 on Feb 5, 2008 11:21 AM EST reply actions

Joel

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

25,165,189,88,20,11,11,4.31

by saladdays on Feb 5, 2008 11:29 AM EST reply actions

oops, forgot BB

25,165,189,70,88,20,11,11,4.31

Please disregard the last post.

by saladdays on Feb 5, 2008 11:30 AM EST up reply actions

joel

30,170,191,52,95,18,10,12,4.70

not great, not godawful either

Pujols is the greatest Cardinal in my lifetime.

by bigcardsfan5 on Feb 5, 2008 11:29 AM EST reply actions

he is what he is

21,143,170,71,84,17,6,11,5.14

with this prediction i'm thinking he's out of the rotation by august. I'm thinking positive for health and see a post all-star break rotation of Carp, mulder, clement, wainright, and looper.

by stickman179 on Feb 5, 2008 11:37 AM EST reply actions

Pinero

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

32,212,132,47,198,4,22,3,2.38

by stlzoot on Feb 5, 2008 12:24 PM EST reply actions

CY

You got Joel for the Cy Young?

Cards fan banished to NH

by t7rick on Feb 5, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

identity

are YOU actually Joel Pineiro? Either that is the case or you are crushing big time on JP . . .

Here's to the hopeful resurection of the MV3

by SprfldCards on Feb 5, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

Although your numbers...

could only skew things slightly...I hope LB throws them out. It would just make us look like blind homers, and adds nothing to the forecast/discussion.

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Feb 5, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

It would just make us look like blind homers

So what your saying even if they believe in thier projections they should not post them because it would in some way reflect on you and the larger group as a whole? While I don't think his numbers can be that good now they been in the past.

by gonzostl on Feb 5, 2008 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

Jo-EL

26,178,207,49,161,18,12,9,4.19

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Feb 5, 2008 12:42 PM EST reply actions

You'd think

Superman's slacker brother would fall ass backward into better stats than that.

:-)

by Harknights on Feb 5, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

Joel Pinero

21, 166, 198, 75, 99, 17, 10, 8, 4.67

by briferg07 on Feb 5, 2008 12:47 PM EST reply actions

Pineiro Projection

29,172,194,46,105,26,12,12,4.41

by Fred Head on Feb 5, 2008 12:48 PM EST reply actions

Pineiro

25,166,195,37,95,18,11,9,4.20

by bertold213 on Feb 5, 2008 1:04 PM EST reply actions

Pineiro

33,185,210,49,113,21,11,14,4.42

Cards fan banished to NH

by t7rick on Feb 5, 2008 1:06 PM EST reply actions

VEB on facebook

hey gang
I made a facebook group for VEBers.
If you're interested just sear groups for Viva El Birdos

I still love you Scotty Ro : )

by Dttl89 on Feb 5, 2008 1:12 PM EST reply actions

I searched,

and nothing came up... I'll join if it's there.

by Jhusk on Feb 5, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

it is there...

just goto groups and search for Viva El Birdos

Miller sucks.

by Ankiels Missing Curveball on Feb 5, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

for better or for worse,

he's gonna make every start.

31,180,177,55,130,25,13,9,4.29

by SleepyCA on Feb 5, 2008 1:27 PM EST reply actions

Pineiro

31,175,190,45,115,25,9,10,4.50

He'll take the ball for every start because a) he can, and b) there'll be nobody better available to replace him. A middle-of-the-rotation starter on a sub .500 team.

by LuBrock20 on Feb 5, 2008 1:49 PM EST reply actions

My take

22,121,134,30,106,13,10,6,4.12

The lack in starts is due to the healty return of Carp and Mulder and the blossoming of Reyes, and to some soreness after the ASB.

GO CARDS!!!

by SuperSeve on Feb 5, 2008 1:52 PM EST reply actions

JP

32,185,202,50,145,15,10,11,4.38

Free Colby

by Oregonian Redbird on Feb 5, 2008 1:57 PM EST reply actions

I'm in

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

23,133,67,32,137,23,12,8,4.12

yes, i pulled these numbers out of my ear after i peeked at his player page...

When cheese gets its picture taken, what does it say?

by RosevilleRedbird on Feb 5, 2008 2:06 PM EST reply actions

It's Pineiro time?

25,168,188,42,98,16,12,8,4.48

by Beware the Molinas on Feb 5, 2008 2:36 PM EST reply actions

Pineiro

30,170,180,35,75,29,11,9,4.35

by awjs63 on Feb 5, 2008 3:29 PM EST reply actions

Jo-el

26,190,210,40,110,30,14,9,3.91

Let's hope it works out like this.

by Valatan on Feb 5, 2008 3:37 PM EST reply actions

wow

190 innings in 26 starts? only if he pitches several complete games or goes into a relief role.

Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)

by cardwash on Feb 5, 2008 5:53 PM EST up reply actions

Pineiro

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

28,165,191,54,115,21,12,12,4.40

by STLEdge on Feb 5, 2008 3:39 PM EST reply actions

Jo-el

20,120,125,40,80,15,8,7,4.60

by Silent George on Feb 5, 2008 3:39 PM EST reply actions

el pinero

28,169,199,37,111,33,13,9,3.98

Go crazy folks, go crazy!

by WizardofOz on Feb 5, 2008 3:41 PM EST reply actions

My guesstimate for Piñeiro: could be worse...

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

23,160,167,53,103,18,10,9,4.47

Maybe he really WAS just tipping his pitches. That's a WHIP of 1.37, btw.

"I've 'ad worse!"

There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.

by Mr Clean on Feb 5, 2008 3:43 PM EST reply actions

Pineiro '08

28,182,180,61,141,21,13,12,4.31

by TenRingsAndCounting on Feb 5, 2008 3:56 PM EST reply actions

quien sabe?

28,186,194,52,104,21,11,9,4.33

Not Carpenter, but not Ponson.

we've seen much worse.

by madridbend on Feb 5, 2008 4:05 PM EST reply actions

Piniero

25,180,192,73,114,25,12,12,4.38

"The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it."

by cardsrul on Feb 5, 2008 4:13 PM EST reply actions

pinata time

30,188,205,54,145,33,9,11,4.87

by Hungry Jack on Feb 5, 2008 4:32 PM EST reply actions

Hmmmm

30,174,190,52,98,25,6,14,5.25

Hope I'm wrong, but I wasn't real impressed with him, other than the Mets game.

by DiscoJer on Feb 5, 2008 5:35 PM EST reply actions

yeah

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

33,188,210,40,125,28,14,10,4.21

Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)

by cardwash on Feb 5, 2008 5:51 PM EST reply actions

Bleh

25,150,205,60,85,25,8,10,4.63

by boredatwork on Feb 5, 2008 5:53 PM EST reply actions

J. Piniero

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

24,175,202,54,122,10,9,4.39

by SethWestern on Feb 5, 2008 5:53 PM EST reply actions

and...

what we call a minor blizzard in the rockies is a dusting to colorado people.

Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)

by cardwash on Feb 5, 2008 5:55 PM EST reply actions

forgot HR....damn it

24,175,202,54,122,20,10,9,4.39

by SethWestern on Feb 5, 2008 5:56 PM EST reply actions

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA

28,154,172,60,90,20,6,12,4.90

by azruavatar on Feb 5, 2008 6:00 PM EST reply actions

Piniero 08

30,181,207,51,137,23,12,9,4.02

by joedick on Feb 5, 2008 6:08 PM EST reply actions

Hope I'm wrong

19,130,160,50,70,23,4,12,5.30

Fame was like a drug, but what was even more like a drug were the drugs

by Alxfritz on Feb 5, 2008 6:29 PM EST reply actions

Duh, da da Da, duh duh, duh da !!!!!

Joel "I don't tip my pitches anymore" Piniero...

33,202,157,44,152,18,15,8,4.12

"Why does he keep saying that?"

by Red Blazer on Feb 5, 2008 6:56 PM EST reply actions

Joely Jo Jo

28,169,170,68,80,22,10,11,4.44

by lightbulb on Feb 5, 2008 7:02 PM EST reply actions

Not optimistic

22,140,150,40,90,15,8,13,4.85

by svengali on Feb 5, 2008 7:13 PM EST reply actions

PienHERO

36,188,190,77,134,11,9,.412

by mwinf12 on Feb 5, 2008 7:36 PM EST reply actions

HOLY SHIT SUB-1 ERA

Cardinal fan in the heart of Braves country

by Mr Redbird on Feb 5, 2008 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

while giving up 134 HR's

that's tough to do...

by SleepyCA on Feb 5, 2008 11:51 PM EST up reply actions

That is SOs

Actually it is 134 SOs, must be assuming 0 HR
(I am including spaces so as not to confuse LB into thinking this is my prediction)

GS IP H BB SO HR W L ERA
36 188 190 77 134 11 9 .412

by StLHugo on Feb 6, 2008 8:13 AM EST up reply actions

JP

28,155,162,54,21,11,10,4.25

I'm actually okay with the two years. Duncan apparently wanted him after seeing him for this partial season. For all of the frustrations we have with Duncan he does know the veteran pitchers he can work with and I assume he sees more to him than just that he was tipping pitches. I'm expecting him to be a very decent back of the rotation pitcher along with, of course, all of the other back of the rotation pitchers we've got.

by easy on Feb 5, 2008 7:52 PM EST reply actions

Duncan...

also wanted Wells for YEARS!

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Feb 6, 2008 8:28 AM EST up reply actions

Yes

But he didn't want him anymore after actually working with him.

by gonzostl on Feb 6, 2008 8:41 AM EST up reply actions

That's right

he didn't. Virtually every other free agent pitcher this year was/is a project too. JP seems to be more of a project already in progress and that makes the 2 years more palatable to me.

by easy on Feb 6, 2008 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

The Ex-Red Sox Closer

27, 160, 155, 47, 113, 16, 10, 10, 4.35

by gnick55 on Feb 5, 2008 7:58 PM EST reply actions

Remove spaces

by StLHugo on Feb 5, 2008 8:57 PM EST up reply actions

same ol' Joel

24,165,172,53,110,17,10,7,4.23

by chicagocardfan on Feb 5, 2008 8:10 PM EST reply actions

ewwy

27,155,173,56,109,22,8,11,4.56

by JxMetal on Feb 5, 2008 8:12 PM EST reply actions

Wow

people are really high on Joel. This is pretty surprising.

Fame was like a drug, but what was even more like a drug were the drugs

by Alxfritz on Feb 5, 2008 8:58 PM EST reply actions

Duncan Magic?

by lightbulb on Feb 5, 2008 9:44 PM EST up reply actions

well

we are cards fans used to winning

Cardwash - Cardinal, Washington fan (Washington???? Yeah, I know)

by cardwash on Feb 6, 2008 1:02 AM EST up reply actions

Hmmmm...

24,132,135,27,95,20,8,8,4.60

by Phizzle on Feb 5, 2008 9:39 PM EST reply actions

... and then his arm falls off :-(

GS,IP,H,BB,SO,HR,W,L,ERA
16,96,94,28,76,13,9,4,3.97

Basically, I expect him to be surprisingly good -- almost amazingly good -- for half a season. (He's moved to the NL, after all.) And then, some time before or near the All Star break, his arm goes sproing and he's done for the year, and possibly for good. I really hope I'm wrong and the other forecasts are closer to the truth.

by StanTheManFan on Feb 5, 2008 10:26 PM EST reply actions