Composite Projections

by joker24 on Feb 22, 2008 9:35 AM EST Comment 6 comments

For those interested, this guy has compiled a combo of 7 projection systems. Doesn't say which ones, but it certainly looks like ZiPS and PECOTA are involved to start with based on Josh Willingham/Magglio projections. Apparently CHONE, Marcel and Bill James not included (though honestly with the ridiculous frequency where James is the most optimistic I don't really value those anyway). Interesting to look at at the very least, I wonder how they fare against the individual parts. Since PECOTA looks to be involved I'd guess it'd be smart to download the spreadsheet as quickly as possible before copyright stuff starts. Pujols projected to have the top OBP, (outside of Bonds, but since he's not playing...) and SLG--->OPS for what it's worth.

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Funny,

The total W/L projection for all these pitchers:

Reyes, Pineiro, Looper, Franklin, Wainwright, Carp, Izzy, Springer, Mulder, Wellemeyer, Thompson, Floresx2, Johnson, Clement

is an even .500 (77-77).

by Phizzle on Feb 22, 2008 1:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting...

Izturis is dead last among Cardinal projections in OPS, and Tyler Greene is ranked ahead of him. Good God I hope he's better than THAT!

Only three Cardinals (300+ AB) came in above .800 OPS: Pujols (1.033), Glaus(.852), and Duncan (.833). Phelps clocked in with a .826 in 197 AB's -- although there's no way he gets those unless Pujols goes down after the All-Star break.

I think the VEB community was pretty close on Ankiel's power and OBP numbers, but I'm positive we had him striking out a whole lot more than 117 times in 504 AB's. If he gets 500+ AB's, I'd expect him to probably strike out around 140 times at least -- if not more than that.

If these projections hold up, the starting pitching is going to be awful unless Carpenter can make his 10 starts in August and September, and we might be 10 games out at that point! WW looks really good by these projections -- and could probably win 15 games with a little run suppport and those ERA and WHIP numbers.

The bullpen doesn't rate great, and none of these projections do the guys in the minors a whole lot of favors, so hopefully they produce better than expected.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Feb 22, 2008 1:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking the same thing

How bad are you that you can't outhit a maybe failed AA prospect?

We can upgrade at SS by bringing in Greene? Ick.

by Harknights on Feb 22, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure

a lot of these projections are minor league stats. Greene has 287 projected AB's, and he isn't gonna get 'em in the majors.

by Phizzle on Feb 22, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nah

Projection systems aren't really good at playing time and rarely care with minor leaguers. It's kinda a what if? The important things usually are the rates.

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Feb 22, 2008 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs