BP's Top 11 Cards Prospects

by mojowo11 on Feb 19, 2008 1:01 PM EST

Baseball Prospectus Article
Future Redbirds Article

Subscriber material, so I can't post most of the article, but since you can see it anyway without being a member, here's the rankings:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, CF
Four-Star Prospects
2. Chris Perez, RHP
3. Bryan Anderson, C
Three-Star Prospects
4. Adam Ottavino, RHP
5. Jaime Garcia, LHP
6. Tyler Herron, RHP
7. Jose Martinez, SS
8. Peter Kozma, SS
9. Clayton Mortensen, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
10. Joe Mather, OF
11. Jarrett Hoffpauir, 2B

Just Missing: David Freese, 3B; David Kopp, RHP; Jess Todd, RHP

I find myself somewhat surprised by low rankings for Garcia and Kozma (I expected Garcia to be a four-star and Kozma to be ranked higher based on potential), but otherwise I think this is fairly in line with what I expected. I'll be exciting to see how some of these very guys (Rasmus most importantly, of course) perform in spring training.

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Comments

Jon Jay

Is he off everyone's radar now. I remember being very excited when he was drafted. I thought he would definitely have a future with the team. Can anyone enlighten me on this subject?

"And that's a winner. A World Series winner for the Cardinals."

by Bird Watcher on Feb 19, 2008 1:27 PM EST reply actions

He hurt his shoulder this past season

and missed a lot of time posting uninspiring numbers when he did play. He doesn't project for a lot of power, which would be fine if he sticks at CF, so there's questions about his ceiling as an everyday player. He'll need to maintain the stellar walk rates to make his way back up most lists again. Baseball America (Derrick Goold) had him at #11.

by azruavatar on Feb 19, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

Jay

I've gotten the impression from the very beginning that few people believed his skill set would translate well to professional baseball. I'd love to see him prove everyone wrong, of course.

You may remember this article which had the following interesting picture:

I hadn't noticed he was missing from the BP list, though. I would've expected to have found him at least on the "Just Missing" list. Chalk it up to the injury, perhaps.

by mojowo11 on Feb 19, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

Repeatedly

If you watch the video repeatedly, I think you will see, that while the swings look similar, the follow through is completely different. After Jay swings, his momentum is pulling him forward, whereas Beltran channels that enery into is front let and it is almost as if he is pushing himself backwards, hence the power.

Cards fan banished to NH

by t7rick on Feb 20, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

but

he's a tweak away from replicating Beltran's swing, which isn't too shabby of a position to be in.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on Feb 21, 2008 3:14 AM EST up reply actions

I found the summation at the end interesting:

It's simple enough--the Cardinals are a team going in the wrong direction, and to complicate matters, they don't have much in the way of young talent. While Colby Rasmus has impact potential, one man alone can't save the Cardinals' future.

Not sure I agree with that, as I think if you take a step back and look at the big picture, the system is certainly moving in the right direction.

by holden on Feb 19, 2008 4:58 PM EST reply actions

I didn't get that statement either

You could say that the system has work to do...or that it has a long way to go...but you can't look back at the last 2-10 years of top 10 prospects and not say this is an improvement.

When have we had a better top three?

Sure we had at one time at number 1

Drew, Ankiel, Pujols

but I don't think at any time they were ever 1 and 2...and even if they were that was 7 years ago. Since 2002 what year looks better prospect wise?

Again that's not to say we don't have a long way to go before we sleep.

by Harknights on Feb 19, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, but that's like saying...

Moe was the smartest stooge. The minor league system has stunk for years and years and years. Just because it's getting slightly better isn't saying much.

by DiscoJer on Feb 20, 2008 5:38 AM EST up reply actions

I think he's saying...

the team...i.e the big league team is going the wrong way, and it'll take more than Rasmus to turn it around. I kinda agree...but think that there's a little more help on the way than Rasmus alone.

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Feb 20, 2008 9:22 AM EST up reply actions

the reason is...

Nothing more than a function of reputation. Reputations are sticky. We moved alot of crappy minor league talent on in trades before we aquired a reputation as a bad minor league system. Of course, just about as that reputation had solidified (marked by several successive last or near-last national minor leagues rankings), the shift in philosophy in the system began. While most minor league rankings have identified this (ranking us in the middle and even upper-middle of ML rankings), the perception is still out there that the Cardinals have a bad minor league system.

It'll probalby take a good season and a half before the change is recognized such that the reputation shifts significantly. D.GOOCH

Cardinals, Cardinals, Cardinals!

by GOOCH24 on Feb 20, 2008 6:33 PM EST up reply actions

garcia & kozma

garcia missed some time with a sore elbow last year. i am sure he would be ranked higher if not for that. i cant blame someone for lowering a rank in those circumstances. the cards are saying he is ok. if that is the case, i believe he will climb the rankings this year...probably a 4 star in these rankings...maybe around 40-50 in overall rankings. a 3 star ranking is nothing to be ashamed of either.

i thought kozma's rank was appropriate/borderline generous. he is a high draft pick but was considered by some to be an overdraft. he didnt show much in short season ball. there are a lot of people that just arent that crazy about him. he basically deserves an 'incomplete' grade.

by dmb60614 on Feb 19, 2008 5:28 PM EST reply actions

....micro-Kosma of the situation...

Agree on Garcias lesser status and the assessment of Kozma based on limited info. I sure hope Garcia actually IS ok.

You also said people in general just arent that big on Kozma, which in my mind pretty much applies to the entire Cards prospect picture outside of Rasmus and Perez.

Outside sources take a look at the list and have a tough time seeing much to be crazy about overall. Its an honest assessment I think, even tho Ive enjoyed seeing several of these kids play and want to see them climb the ladder.

The next Cards draft needs be a slam dunk of talent.

If we can't be good, can we at least be lucky?

by cardschinmusic on Feb 20, 2008 3:21 AM EST up reply actions

yow...

...needs TO be....

If we can't be good, can we at least be lucky?

by cardschinmusic on Feb 20, 2008 3:22 AM EST up reply actions

I agree

Kosma hasn't done enough as a pro to even deserve a rating. Makes me wonder about their ratings altogether.

by ridgesee on Feb 19, 2008 6:33 PM EST reply actions

What's my boy, PJ Walters

gotta do to get some love?

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Feb 20, 2008 12:22 AM EST reply actions

Be better than Jarrett Hoffpauir?!?

That would presume he isn't better right now.

I guess he doesn't feel that Walters can offer more than someone who might be lucky to be Miles?

by Harknights on Feb 20, 2008 12:38 AM EST up reply actions

Phil Dewayne....

Saw PJ getting some "love" from Prinzi over on the Stl PD Jupiter videos. Throwing strikes to lefties and making the 40 roster would help. Plus improving that scoring position thing.

If we can't be good, can we at least be lucky?

by cardschinmusic on Feb 20, 2008 4:00 AM EST up reply actions

add 3-5mph

to his fastball.

by azruavatar on Feb 20, 2008 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

It says something that the Cardinals MiLB

Pitcher of the Year (Walters) isn't even considered one of their 11 best prospects. Especially for a pitcher who does nothing but throw strikes and is only 23 years old.

I wish another certain former Cardinals pitcher of the year could throw so friggin' strikes.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Feb 20, 2008 10:18 PM EST up reply actions

bob tewksbury

...i'm kind of a young guy, but as I recall Bob Tewksbury had absolutely zero heat but was a pretty damn good pitcher. I'd say he was even the best cardinals starter of the 1990's (not saying much when the runner up is Donovan Osborne)

"Ding-dong the wicked witch is dead!" - Wayne Hagin after the cardinals snapped a losing streak

by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Feb 21, 2008 3:04 AM EST reply actions

Or Maddux

these guys can stick in the majors (hell, they can excel in the majors), but they're hardly sure things. These rankings are imprecise (that's why they never agree with each other, after all), and are even more imprecise for pitching prospects.

All you can do is wait for them to move up the ladder, and see if they stick as they go up to the next level.

by Valatan on Feb 21, 2008 1:53 PM EST up reply actions

Maddux

His name has come up with PJ, but I really don't think their velocity is even comparable. Heck Maddux is 41 years old and I watched a handfull of games he pitched this year and he was hitting 88-89 pretty consistently on the gun when he was throwing his fast ball.

I also remember mid to late 90's Maddux in ATL and I remember him hitting 94 MPH time to time. Maddux makes the decision not to throw hard but he can throw hard. I bet he would struggle to hit 91 MPH these days but he is capeable of throwing hard. I think people at times belive Maddux can not throw hard, but he would rather get movement that velocity. But don't be fooled Maddux in the Mid 90's was throwing 94MPH which seems to be a lot harder than PJ.

But all in all I say just keep moving PJ up and see how he does. There is no need to rush him, but if he keeps producing you have to give him a shot at the MLB level.

by ICbirdfan on Feb 21, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions