20-20 hindsight
by lboros on Feb 19, 2008 10:08 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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Printno tournament update today; off-day for both series. we resume tomorrow.
here's an exercise in second-guessing: knowing what we now know about the prices that various free agents went for, which ones would you have signed for the cardinals this off-season?
the cards spent a total of $24.3m in guaranteed money this winter on free agents and option-year players:
- picked up izzy's option for $8m
- signed pineiro to a two-year deal that pays $5m this year
- re-signed springer for $3.5m
- signed cesar izturis for $2.9
- signed matt clement for $1.8m, with up to $5.2m in performance bonuses and an optional 2d yr
- re-signed miles for $1.4m
- signed larue for $850K
before we go on, some qualifications and clarifications &c &c. in addition to the above-named moves, the cardinals also tendered contracts to wellemeyer and ankiel (and signed them for $1m each), and they extended molina for four years, paying him $1.2m this season. these could all be considered discretionary expenditures --- the team had the option of nontendering any of these players and spending the money elsewhere --- but i'm leaving those out of this little game. they needlessly complicate the issue; those were no-brainer moves with low dollar amounts. so those signings are assumed; you don't get to change them.
you also don't get to make make-believe trades --- you're not allowed to stick erik bedard or miguel cabrera or dan haren on your roster and subtract colby rasmus. nor do you get to undo the deals that were actually made --- ie rolen, edmonds. you do, however, get to promote players from within the organization. if you want to name brendan ryan as your starting shortstop, colby rasmus as your starting centerfielder, and mitchell boggs as your number 5 starter, be my guest. for the sake of simplicity, i'm also going to assume the rule V pickup of brian barton for this exercise; consider him an "internal resource."
i should add that i consider this a value-neutral exercise. i'm not intending to criticize the moves the front office actually made, nor am i suggesting they should have foreseen the rather low prices that a lot of players went for. this is just a way to pass the time, ok? if you want a complete list of all the available free agents, go here. (that list does include traded players, by the way, but you still don't get to use them.) if you know where a guy signed but you don't know what he signed for, you can look him up by his team at Cot's Contracts. here's one way to spend the $22.5m:
1 yr / $5m for milton bradley
1 yr / $3.5m for jon lieber
1 yr / $1.8m for josh towers
1 yr / $1.8m for matt clement (with optional 2d year)
1 yr / $850K for jason la rue
- bradley
- duncan
- pujols
- glaus
- ankiel
- molina
- ryan
- pitcher
- kennedy
i was tempted to bring back eckstein at $4.5m for one last year as the leadoff man, but the defense killed it for me. i also think pineiro is a good deal for 2008 only, but i never liked the 2d year on his deal --- and i like it less now that we see what the market for pitchers has been.
have at it, ladies and gents.
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OK, I would sign Bradley if I could pretend like I traded Duncan, but I guess that's against the rules. So the first signing is Everett. Then Josh Towers. Izzy can come back. So, there's $11.2 million spent.
Maybe Mark Hendrickson and call it a day. Oh, yeah. LaRue too. Why not.
$13.5 million. I'd just pocket the rest.
I had a dream
If I eliminate
On a side note, where is Joe Strauss? Canceled last Wednesday's chat and I haven't seen his name since- no longer on the P-D's website. Anyone have any info.?
by vinniefromjersey on Feb 19, 2008 11:04 AM EST reply actions
A death in the family
by boredatwork on Feb 19, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
I have been looking at it
How would I do it?
1 yr / $4m for kenny lofton
1 yr / $5m for livan hernandez
1 yr / $2.8m for adam everett
1 yr / $1.25m for johnny estrada
1 yr / $4m for jeff weaver
$25.05m
Lineup
Lofton
Ankiel
Pujols
Glaus
Duncan
Molina
Everett
Pitcher
Kennedy
Bench
Speezer
Estrada
Barton
Ryan
Ludwick
Opening Day Rotation
Wainwright
Looper
Pineiro
Livan
Weaver
With Reyes replacing Looper if you can find someone to trade with you.
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 19, 2008 11:17 AM EST reply actions
Ok I have to ask
Yes
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 19, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
+1
Well.......
Though I am iffy on Bradley leading off....
I would have Ryan leadoff and put Bradley in the 5-spot he is a good hitter to have in the middle of the lineup.
By the way I just checked out Athletics Nations new site IT ROCKS I cant wait until we get a new one!!!!!!
Sing A-rod and call it a day.
heres what id do
pick up izzy's option= 8m
sign livan ,jennings and lieber = 12.5m
sign eckstein = 4.5m
sign la rue= 850k
$25.850M
opening day line up
eckstein
rasmus
pujols
duncan
glaus
ankiel
molina
pitcher/kennedy
kennedy/pitcher
----------
rotation:
wainright
livan
lieber
jennings
reyes
----------
bullpen: bench:
izzy ludwick
franklin ryan
tyler barton
randy spiezio
looper larue
wellemeyer
thompson
----------------------------------------
looks like a solid team to me
Why "Just kidding"?
CF: Barton
LF: Duncan
1B: El Hombre
SS: A-Rod
3B: Glaus
RF: Ankiel
C: Molina
P: whoever
2B: Kennedy
That is a scary starting lineup, even with Kennedy at the bottom. As for the rest:
SP: WW, Looper, Wellemeyer, Reyes, and either Boggs or Parisi until Mulder is healthy again (if ever), or just scavenge the waiver bin -- heck, even Steve Trachsel recently signed a minor-league contract...
RP: Franklin (closer to start with), Perez (closer by mid-season), Johnson, Flores, Thompson, Worrell, Hawksworth (or Villone or some other nonentity from the waiver pile)
Bench: LaRue, Hoffpauir, Spiezio, Ludwick, Ryan
-- And that's without even starting the clock on the Rasmus-o-meter. It is also not looking too carefully at what's available from waivers. There would have been plenty of cheap talent via that route to fill out the bullpen; there always is.
The Baseball Prospectus guys point out that the Cardinals dominated the first part of this decade with a studs-and-scrubs approach to roster construction. It would still work today (in principle, again, I don't really advocate paying the GNP for A-Rod except as a paper exercise), and more convincingly, since there is starting to be enough talent in the minors to fill the scrubs roles cheaply and painlessly.
by StanTheManFan on Feb 20, 2008 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
But samael.....
yeah that was the only thing
i guess id put ankiel in center let ludwick and barton split the at bats, maybe call up cody heather?
Question
I don't know the answer to your question but
Two words for you
Santo.
I'll be listening to more Cubs broadcasts this year. No doubt about it.
Fukudome
by mikedallas23 @ Viva El Birdos on Feb 19, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Cubs lawsuit
I thought it was interesting that the Cubs say they'll block his view of the field if he does not comply. My thought: how? Build a wall or curtain above the outer stadium wall? Won't that look weird?
They'll use ivy
by That's a Winner on Feb 19, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
They've had this issue before
HA
by jealousblues on Feb 19, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
Please enter a subject for your comment.
1 yr / $5m for Milton Bradley
1 yr / $3.5m for jon lieber
1 yr / $500K for Jack Cassell
1 yr / $1.8m for matt clement (with optional 2d year)
1 yr / $850K for jason la rue
=~ $22M
I'm probably the only one that would want Cassell but I like his sinkerball repertoire and his price. Bonds would actually make the lineup respectable and add a dangerous bat off the bench in Duncan. I'm not enamored with the idea of Hoffpauir as the backup SS although he's likely no worse than Miles. Worst case if Ryan goes down, you call up someone from AAA. The rotation is still suspect but not anyworse, imo, than what we're facing now.
RF - Bradley
SS - Ryan
1b - Pujols
LF - Bonds
3B - Glaus
CF - Ankiel
C - Molina
2b - Kennedy/Hoffpauir
S - Wainwright
S - Looper
S - Cassell
S - Reyes
S - Lieber
DL - Carpenter, Mulder, Clement
Bench - Duncan, Barton, La Rue, Hoffpauir, Spiezio
CL - Perez
Relief - Some mish-mash of prospects (Worrell, Motte, Castellanos, etc.)
How the hell did I forget Everett
Bonds
Other than those two guys, I like your other moves. Lieber is solid; I, too, like Jack Cassell, and his repertoire seems to fit the Duncan mold of successful pitchers. I'd have probably skipped on Clement and ponied up for Piniero simply because he could jump into the rotation instead of Reyes, and you have a decent idea of what you'll get from him while you have no idea what you'll get out of Clement.
I think you could sign Bonds for
Still for the chance to inject an OBP north of .400 with decent power, I'd risk all that. He's a better offensive player than Duncan and no worse defensively. If the Cardinals wanted to win, Bonds would be a significant upgrade for the outfield. I don't know what makes you think Duncan could even approach Bonds' line. ZiPS projects a .256/.456/.518 for Barry and a .262/.346/.472 for Duncan. Duncan would need to make huge strides forward and Bonds would have to literally collapse as a hitter. While the latter isn't out of the question, I don't think it's the most likely scenario.
I think...
I didn't say that Duncan could approach his rate stats, although I believe that PECOTA has them rated much closer than ZIPS. Although when looking at he ZIPS projections, if Barry hits .256 I don't see his OBP maintaining that .456 clip. He's simply not going to be walked that much if he was hitting in the Cardinal lineup. One reason he posted a .480 last year is that there wasn't any reason to pitch to him in the middle of that Giant lineup, and you probably wouldn't have to face him in the late innings as he was pulled quite a bit for a defensive replacement.
I did say that with a full healthy season under his belt, Duncan could probably match Barry in HR, RBI, and R at a fraction of the cost. He'll never match Bonds in OBP, but I think Duncan could post a number around .360 which would look pretty good with a .275 average and 30+ taters. Lets assume Duncan is bullish on his ZIPS projection this year and posts a .275/.360/.500 line -- which considering his healthy splits the last couple of years isn't totally out of the question. Would you then still spend the money on Barry even though he's only play 120 games or so, cost 10X as much, and bring a media circus to St. Louis? You also then wouldn't know what kind of player you have in Duncan if you want to move him, and for what, one late career sub-par season from Barry Bonds? It just doesn't seem worth it, IMO.
BTW...I'm making an ultimatum:
If they sign Bonds they must trade for Bradley...has anyone ever been killed or decapitated in a locker-room confrontation before?
I do not know exactly
Speaking of the Cubs
by Hardcore Legend on Feb 19, 2008 2:05 PM EST reply actions
New Lineup
Sign Larue
Sign Pineiro
Sign Clement
Sign Andruw Jones (9 million this year)
Sign Towers
Sign Eckstein
Lineup
Eckstein
Ankiel
Pujols
Jones
Duncan
Glaus
Molina
Kennedy
Pitcher
Rotation
Wainwright
Looper
Pineiro
Clement/Towers
Reyes
Bullpen
Johnson
Flores
Franklin
Wellemeyer
Thompson
Perez Closing
Bench
Larue
2 of following 3
Schumaker/Ludwick/Barton
Ryan
Spiezio/Phelps
I hate Andruw Jones, but for 9 million, he adds a lot to the lineup and defense. It also allows Rasmus to develop as needed, and when he is ready, allows us to have a surplus that could be potential trade bait.
All right, let's see...
Jack Cassel- 500k
Mark Prior- 1.5m
Jon Lieber- 3.5
Pick up Izzy- 8m
13.5m
Adam Everett- 2.8
Johnny Estrada- 1.25
4m
Total-17.5m
Everett starts at short, Kennedy at second, Ryan is my backup MI; substitute Jimenez/ Hoffpauir/ whoever if you like. Estrada backs up Yadi and gives AP the occasional day off.
I throw all the pitchers into a big bowl and see what happens. My bullpen will be suitably filled out by the emerging talent pool. God knows the pen is one place there's some depth.
The rest of the money, some seven million dollars, I earmark for the 2008 draft. I take a home run swing in each of the first three rounds, and several more on the second day, buying out college commitments left and right.
Before anyone even says that's not the way teams budget for the draft, save your breath. One, there's absolutely no reaon why it can't be done that way, and two, I have an example of a team doing exactly that, and it's actually one we know pretty well.
In 2004, the Colorado Rockies used 900k dollars that they were able to free up by dealing Larry Walker to the Cardinals to sign Dexter Fowler, a high school outfielder, to a contract. A canny use of financial resources, in my book.
Source: Baseball America Prospect Handbook, 2006. I would post a link, but I have no idea where it would be on their website, and I honestly don't have the time at the moment to track it down.
And that's how I would have spent my winter vacation.
Here we go...
Guardado 2 mil
Pineiro - 5 mil
Affeldt - 3.5 mil
LaRue -850k
Izturis -2.9 mil
Glavine-8 mil
Lineup
- RF-Barton/Schumacher
- CF-Ankiel
- 1B Pujols
- LF-Duncan
- 3B-Glaus
- C-Molina
- 2B-Kennedy
- Pitcher
- SS-Izturis/Ryan
- Wainwright
- Glavine
- Looper
- Pineiro
- Reyes
by cardzfan52 on Feb 19, 2008 2:43 PM EST reply actions
affeldt???
Subject!
1 yr / $5m for Livan Hernadez
1 yr / $850K for Jason La Rue
1 yr / $8m for Izzy
Lineup
1. Rasmus
2. Ankiel
3. Pujols
4. Duncan
5. Glaus
6. Molina
7. Kennedy
8. pitcher
9. Ryan
Bench: La Rue, Spiezio, Hoffpauir, Barton, Schumaker
Rotation:
Wainwright
Glavine
Hernandez
Looper
Pinerio
Same bullpen
kevin mench!
i would have gone with everett over izturis. neither one can hit but everett is the better glove man.
good bye aaron miles. i like the guy but his usefulness has come to an end.
in lieu of russ springer i would go with either jeremy affeldt or jon lieber. affeldt is a swingman that could start or relieve. lieber is more proven as a starter. i kind of like the idea of affeldt because with clement, mulder and carp hurting and reyes being uncertain i think it is nice to have a guy that you can put into the rotation or pull out without much notice. i think affeldt could handle that role. lieber, livan and those types seem like permanent rotation guys. i cant imagine them being too useful out of the pen.
i would probably stick with pineiro, even though i would much rather the second year be an option. i would also stick with clement even knowing he isnt quite ready.
keep izzy.
larue or whoever at $850M.
other minor league deals: chin-hui tsao, jorge julio
reyes, thompson, wellemeyer and affeldt/lieber are in a battle royale for rotation spots. losers go the pen or AAA if they have options.
leadoff is going to be ugly. there really arent any 'traditional' options with my roster configuration. it would just come down to who is playing well. maybe it is kennedy vs. righties. maybe it is brendan ryan or d'angelo jiminez after they beat out kennedy for a starting job. maybe barton finds his way into the mix. maybe you just go with some 'danger' and put kevin mench and his .305/.361/.563 line vs. lefties in the leadoff spot.
My lineup
2-Ludwick RF
3-Pujols 1B
4-Duncan LF
5-Glauss 3B
6-Ankiel CF
7-Iguchi* 2B 1yr. $3.85M
8-Molina C
9-Pitcher
C Larue
OF Barton
IF Everett*1yr. $2.8M Brendan Ryan Insurance
IF Hoff/Kennedy
IF/OF Speezio
SP Wainwright
SP Looper
SP Towers* 1yr. $1.8M
SP Reyes
SP Garcia/Boggs/Weaver* 1yr. $2.0M
CL Isringhausen
SU Perez
LHP Johnson
LHP Flores
MR Franklin
MR Thompson
Swing Wellemeyer
**No Springer
**Include whoever is needed more at the time, Skip or Thomspon.
**If Kennedy does not come back to form during ST, cut bait. If not, he is a serviceable backup. His salary should be viewed as a sunk cost.
**Sign Weaver to battle it out with Garcia and Boggs for #5 spot. If he doesn't have it out of ST, either have him take Thompson's spot long enough for Duncan to work with him or DFA.
**Tad Iguchi at 2b. We don't need an offensive black hole there again this year.
by omreb on Feb 19, 2008 3:52 PM EST reply actions
All over 40 yrs. old
Alou - $7.5 mil
Gonzo - $2 mil
Rogers - $8 mil
Wakefield - $4 mil
$24.5 but I think Lofton and Gonzo will come cheaper.
Lofton
Duncan
Pujols
Alou
Glaus
Ankiel
Molina
Kennedy
Pitcher
Gonzo filling in for Lofton and Alou
Wainright, Rogers, Wakefield, Looper, Reyes
No established closer
Mulder and Carpenter on rehab.
Hardcore Legend
I would pick up Izzy & Clement...
Better to take a gamble on a pitcher who might be really good for $13 million a year or so, than spend it on replacement level players (or below replacement level players, as in Miles and Izturis's case)
I would have
-Pick up Izzy's option for 8.
-Bradley for 5m
-Towers for 1.5m
-Everett for 2m
-Pinero for 1.5m
-Lieber for 3m
-Larue for 1m
Lineup:
Bradley - CF
Kennedy - 2B (at least to start, if he fails DFA the bastard and put Dunc in the 2hole)
Pujols - 1B
Glaus - 3B
Ankiel- RF
Duncan - LF
Molina - C
Everett - SS
Pitcher
Bench would be Ryan, Rasmus, Spiezio, Barten,Larue
Starters (in no particular order)
Wagonmaker, Reyes, Towers, Lieber, and Pinero
Pen: Looper, Franklin, Izzy, Pinero, Thompson, TJ, Flores/Wellemeyer
I like Everett's glove much more than Izturis. My problem is that there is only one really good hitter in this lineup (AP) and the 2hole needs to be a high contact guy. I think Kennedy, if he's ready, could be that guy. I also like the power farther down the lineup - I played with Molina batting 6th, but he's better protection for Dunc than vice versa.
That's why I was against the Rolen trade - he fit that 2hole so well.
The staff is weak, but gives options with Loop back in the pen and Mulder and Carp nursing injuries.
The glaring weakness of this lineup, and the current Cards lineup is that they are lacking the pure hitter who, when in front of Albert or even behind him, gives you two potential innings out of three. An inning of Glaus, Ank and Dunc is ok - but not like the Brewers or the Cubs.
on your bench
Mo did a pretty good job
by fip24 on Feb 19, 2008 11:24 PM EST reply actions
how i would spend the money
I mean didn't Baseball Prospectus predict them to win more games?
by kodiakduncs on Feb 20, 2008 12:44 AM EST reply actions
adam everett?? gimme a break
Everett can field, though...
I don't think he's worth the money either, but he's better than Izturis, IMHO.
Gold Glove = Mediocre now
So I agree the only reason to sign Everett over Izturis is that Everett has been playing as a starter the last few years while Izturis has been used in a utility role. Why sign either of them though? That is my question.
izturis/everett
i think izturis, after getting regular playing time, will be adequate at SS this year. he's been traded to teams the past couple of seasons that already had a starter in place (cubs w/ cedeno, and pirates w/ wilson). he's not gonna be on anyone's MVP ballot or anything, but i think he'll hit .270-.280 to go along w/ the solid defense he has always provided.
no offense intended
Everett is worth upwards of 30-40 runs with the glove. Assuming that Izturis is worth about 10 and is 10 runs better with the bat (both somewhat generous predictions) Everett is still 10-20 runs better.
no offense taken
i don't think fielding percentage is useless. Range is important, too....it's great and all if you're able to cover more ground, but it's not helpful if you can't field the ball. a good fielding percentage needs to go hand in hand with how much range you have.
back when izturis started everyday, he and everett had similar range factors. i know that was 3 years ago, but i'm thinking him starting every day will get him comfortable and loose, and get him more towards his 2004/2005 numbers. just a hunch, of course. only the games will determine what happens.
My turn....
Cassell - $500k
Izzy - $8 million
Andruw Jones - $9 million
LaRue - $850k
Towers - $1.8 million
Clement - $1.8 million + incentives
Total: $25.3 million
Assuming the Jones would have taken a 1 year deal in St. Louis that's a huge steal in a number of ways that I've outlined before. If he has a huge 1st half you can dump him for prospects. If he sucks, he's gone at the end of the year, so no blocking of Colby. This is only $1 million more than the club spent and a lot better bang for the buck, IMO. The only thing that hurts is that they don't have a legit leadoff hitter, so Barton would have to win the job and play left field and Duncan might have to be moved for pitching...just a thought. Otherwise:
Lineup:
Hoffpauir 2B
Duncan LF
Pujols 1B
Jones CF
Glaus 3B
Ankiel RF
Molina C
Everett SS
Pitcher
Bench:
Kennedy IF
Spiezio IF
Barton OF
Ludwick OF
Larue C
Rotation:
Wainwright
Looper
Cassel
Towers
Mulder/Clement
Bullpen:
Johnson
Flores
Wellemeyer
Franklin
Thompson
Worrell/Boggs
Izzy
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