monday musings

by lboros on Feb 11, 2008 8:36 AM EST in News Comment 22 comments

monday odds and ends:

if you didn't tune in over the weekend, the 16-team tournament field is set; here's the bracket. we're gonna resume the tourney tomorrow, so that gives you one more day to fill out a bracket and enter Cardinal70's bracket challenge.
Future Redbirds has a long Q+A with farm director John Vuchs; tons of info about the farm system, top-to-bottom. a quick sampler:
[Brian] Barton's selection was a good example of how we try to incorporate as many of our personnel into the decision making process. We send the Rule 5 susceptible list to all of our pro scouts for them to identify anyone who would be of interest to them, and we have our performance analysts do the same. While they're perusing the list, I'm reading through every report that our scouts and PD personnel have written about any Rule 5 eligible player during the last two years . . . The thing that stood out about Barton was that he popped up in all three methods. We had very positive scouting reports from the past, our pro scouts mentioned him as a current player of interest, and he was one of the top performing players available in the Rule 5 according to our analysts. After talking with the major league staff and identifying roles where we might have room to carry a Rule 5 drafted player, Barton wound up at the top of our list.
as long as i'm pimping: i wrote the st louis section again this year for The Hardball Times Season Preview 2008, now available from Acta Sports. lotta other SB Nation bloggers involved. here's a quick preview of the guide, and here are links to some sample pages. a quick disclaimer: while i wrote the player comments for the st louis roster, i did not set the rotisserie dollar values nor do the numerical projections; if those lead you astray, not my fault. of course, they might just lead you to a league championship --- in which case, feel free to send me a portion of the jackpot.
the P-D weatherbird turns 107 today and marks the occasion with the debut of his own blog. the maiden post features a nice little video that shows dan martin drawing today's cartoon. as many of you are aware, longtime weatherbird cartoonist Amadee Wohlschlaeger morphed the character into the El Birdos insignia back in the 1960s. happy birthday to the w'bird.

finally, since it's an odds-n-ends day, this seems like an appropriate time to observe that you could construct a presentable major-league team from among the odds n ends still available on the free agent market, just days before pitchers / catchers report:

lineup	rotation	bench	bullpen
k lofton cf	li hernandez	c patterson of	b wickman
sh green 1b	lohse	sh stewart of	s chacon
b bonds lf	j fogg	mi piazza c/1b	a benitez
k mench rf	je weaver	j cirillo if	r villone
r branyan 3b	ba colon	a cintron if	ma miller
t graffanino 2b	k benson	g norton 1b	an alfonseca
d miller c	ro lopez	tr nixon of	b kim
r clayton ss	s trachsel

if you build a 25-man roster out of those guys and check their PECOTAs, you can come up with a team that projects to be about 40 wins better than replacement --- a 70-win team. sure they'd play unsightly defense, and a number of the guys face obstacles related to health, prosecution, or other issues . . . . but just go with it. i plugged the PECOTAs for that starting 8 into david pinto's lineup toy, just for fun --- 4.4 runs per game, nearly as many runs as the cardinals scored last year.

at least one of the players on this list might end up in the nl central --- kenny lofton might sign with the reds, depending on whether or not they trade an outfielder for a starting pitcher.

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Say it ain't so

LB, please help me understand what sort of projection system was used by THT to predict career totals for Albert of 492HR and 2339 hits? They must either be assuming he is several years older that his stated age or that he is going to break down badly in the next few years. Only 210 more HRs and 995 hits for the rest of his career??? Only a 16% chance at 3,000 hits???

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Feb 11, 2008 8:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

i haven't seen their projection methods

but i agree with you those would be disappointing final career tallies for albert. it's pretty obvious they're assuming a high degree of regression to the mean. from an actuarial standpoint that's the smart thing to do --- it's the conservative way to go. there's a certain chance that an injury (or injuries) will limit pujols' output going forward, and a certain chance that age will diminish his skills even if he stays off the DL, and a certain chance that the competition will simply catch up to him. let's say there's a 50 percent chance (just pulling a number out of the air) that at least one of those adverse outcomes diminishes the rest of albert's career. if you average those outcomes together with the 50 percent of outcomes that have him at, say, 600 homers, you end up with a projection like the THT's.

just think of the THT projection as a conservative estimate. it's an estimate that doesn't assume perfect health or a perfect aging curve --- because it's not prudent to assume those things.

by lboros on Feb 11, 2008 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus

From all the projections I've read, everyone has his homers as being down coming off the 32 bomb season. Seeing as how he hit 40+ for 4 straight before that I'd think that the projected 32/37 ZiPS/PECOTA have him for is way conservative. The way they do these things is just run projections based on the projections, if he actually does hit just ~35 homers next year then that's gonna probably establish the true talent level in the system and then that's gonna affect him going forward in the projections. If he's even relatively injury free I'd think his true talent level is low 40s...

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Feb 11, 2008 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Until

he gets his elbow and foot taken, and I mean really taken care of, Albert will never be "relatively" injury free. And that could be factoring into the projections being made for hisd career totals(not that I take any stock in them; just trying to make a point).

"The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it."

by cardsrul on Feb 11, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry

for all the typos. I'm not having a good day...

"The moment we want to believe something, we suddenly see all the arguments for it, and become blind to the arguments against it."

by cardsrul on Feb 11, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know

But as I understand it these things were at least affecting him in '07 as well...

Cheeseburger in paradise.

by joker24 on Feb 11, 2008 5:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

obstacles related to health, prosecution

hahahaha

by sdrone on Feb 11, 2008 9:01 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps...

all those old guys get together and become some kind of traveling side show...playing each of the major league clubs during spring training, and playing all of the major college teams.

It's interesting to see this change in philosophy in baseball moving to the younger/cheaper from the proven/more expensive.

Thanks for the highlight moments 15 and 27!!!

by cardzfanbub on Feb 11, 2008 9:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Barnstorming

The Barry Bonds Traveling All-Stars & Motor Kings

"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin

by That's a Winner on Feb 11, 2008 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

odds n ends team

Distressing thought: I think that team could take a few games from the Cards' Opening Day lineup in a 7-game series.

by birdjam on Feb 11, 2008 10:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

5th starter

I have read a few places (most recently ESPN's fantasy preview, don't waste your time btw) that the Cards will only need their 5th started twice before mid may when Mulder will be back.

Looking at our schedule I just don't see it.

This is what I see as days when we can "skip" a starter:

Apr 14, May 1, May 26, that is 4 times in April and 4 times in May when we will still need the 5th started (May 22 can't skip a starter even with an off day since the day before is the 5th starter), now this isn't counting 3 days rest starts but I just don't see them doing that just to avoid Reyes/whoever.

by StLHugo on Feb 11, 2008 10:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not contending and ruining Wainer's arm...

perfect.

by rrvwmr on Feb 11, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

That is what I don't get. People keep talking about how we don't need a 5th starter that much in April yet I just don't see it unless they are counting on killing Wainwright that early.

by StLHugo on Feb 11, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Piazza

I don't know exactly where he's at health-wise, but wouldn't Piazza be a useful player for the Cards? A right-handed bat on the bench as a late-inning ph for Yadi and maybe a start a week. The odd day off for Albert and the interleague games as a DH. Maybe I'm remembering Piazza 7 years ago...

I bought the t-shirt.

by thejackclarkfive on Feb 11, 2008 3:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

piazza

his bat is nothing special when he isnt playing catcher, which he cant really do anymore anyway. my guess is he would choose retirement over a back up/pinch hit job.

phelps is probably going to be a better, cheaper pinch hitter/back up 1b anyway.

by dmb60614 on Feb 11, 2008 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Piazza

He can't catch throw out a runner to save his life. LaRussa despises catchers with poor defensive skills. He was dead last, IIRC, last year among all NL catchers with the glove.

by Red in Chicago on Feb 11, 2008 3:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Of course he was dead last

he didn't throw out a single runner in the NL...

...since he was playing DH in the AL West.

Still looking for 1985 Regular Season games on DVD/VHS

by Hardcore Legend on Feb 11, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

On the other hand,

not one runner successfully stole on him in the NL. You can't argue with those results.

by BTown Birds fan on Feb 11, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Piazza!

Just the thing to warm up a Monday in February - Piazza's defense against the running game. In 2006, the last year he played at catcher, 97/110 steal attempts were successful, in 718 innings. That's a stolen base about every 7.3 innings, and a CS every 55 innings.

Yadi, in 2007, allowed 23/50 successful SB attempts, in 861.1 innings, about 1 SB every 43 innings, and 1 CS about every 32 innings.

Of course, those numbers understate the difference between the two, because most attempts on Yadi are by the best basestealers, and almost anyone can run on Piazza.

But I have to admit, Piazza could hit.

by madridbend on Feb 11, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

1 More for Odds n' Ends

Derrick Goold's begun his always excellent ST reporting with this bit of very promising news:

LHP Jaime Garcia ... Is coming off a season cut short by a tender elbow. Did not have surgery as the Cardinals' doctors prescribed rest. Has no restrictions on him, according to the Cardinals. Threw well Monday, and had noticeable zip on his fastball.

Much more there.

by liam on Feb 11, 2008 10:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs