The Next Move.......
by Czechguardsman on Dec 6, 2008 6:37 PM EST
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At a stroke, acquiring Khalil Greene makes the Cardinals infield situation look a whole lot more palatable entering next season. Acquiring a second baseman via a trade seems more cost-conscious and realistic as opposed to overpaying for a free-agent. As of now, the disgruntled Adam Kennedy is still the starting second baseman, but I earnestly hope he is traded to a forlorn club such as Washington or Baltimore where he can finish out his playing days.
With regards to Baltimore, I think the rebuilding Orioles are the club to which the Cardinals should be looking as a trade partner to fill current holes on the team. Two players stand out in my mind whom would look good in a Cardinals uniform next year; Daniel Cabrera and Brian Roberts.
Even though Cabrera was completely unresponsive to Leo Mazzone's tutelage two seasons ago, Cabrera is the type of pitcher with whom Duncan has had success working with in the past. The upside is enormous if Cabrera can realize his full potential. Getting him out of the stifling, dysfunctional atmosphere in Baltimore would probably help. By this point, the prospects of Daniel Cabrera having a breakout season in Baltimore are slim, after 4 disappointing years. If Cabrera can "figure things out", he has the raw stuff to contend for the CY Young. In the Cardinals rotation, even if he improved slightly on his mediocre numbers from last season, Cabrera would be a very strong #3 starter. If the price is right, he is a borderline reclaimation project with tremendous upside.
Getting Cabrera out of the offensively overwhelming AL East and into the NL would probably help too. He was pretty good for the first half of last season until the wheels came off again in the second half. If the price is right, Cabrera would be a very good calculated risk to take to improve the Cards' rotation.
Brian Roberts, of course, would fill the 2B hole and give the Cardinals a legitimate leadoff man. His name has come up time and time again over the last few years, but Baltimore would certainly move him for a couple prospects in the right deal as they rebuild. He is getting closer to becoming a Free-Agent, so he'll have to be moved eventually, even though its been discussed endlessly for the last 4 years.
What about trading for J.J. Putz?? Signing Jon Garland? It wouldn't hurt to ask.
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I think getting Roberts may be a great idea. He’ll likely cost at least top-notch prospect and will demand a big contract next year. Also, the Orioles are still looking to sign him to an extension.
Cabrera is an interesting idea. I would hesitate that say he was doing well in the first part of the year. Just scrolling through his game logs, his first two months he had an ERA of 3.60, but his K/BB ration was 40/32 which is never a good sign. I would argue his performance was more due to luck if anything else. But I do agree to his could be a low risk/high reward project for Duncan.
More luck than anything else?
Wow. His strikeout rate declined, yet again, even more dramatically, to 4.35/9IP. Meanwhile his walks are STILL utterly unmanagable. His BABIP was .298, hardly unlucky, and his FIP was actually substantially higher than his already terrible ERA. All of this occurred over the course of 180 innings, no small sample, and he pitched 200 mostly-bad innings last year as well. His FB has lost substantial speed, and his HR/9 is increasing. He’s a candidate for non-tender not low risk, high reward trade-bait.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
That said,
if he was on the receiving end of that non-tender, I’d gladly pay him league minimum to get his arm and head checked by DD.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
all too blithe
I want Kennedy replaced MORE than the average Cards’ fan, but I think it is all too easy to get enthused about getting Roberts as our ‘09 second-baseman. Maurerdj’s follow sentence, “He’ll likely cost at least top-notch prospect and will demand a big contract next year.” should be dampening, not encouraging.
Of course it would be super to have our 2b situation improved, especially by a prime of his career vet who has some speed and some pop and who would also settle out lead-off situation.
But… he would cost too much, especially given our greater need for another SP (I still can’t agree with not offering arb to Looper) and a closer.
According to Bernie
Second base is not a priority for MO. They’re focusing on “a starting pitcher, a reliever who can close, and a lefty”.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
He's already upgraded the MI.
I’m fine with him getting us insurance against our starters health and effectiveness and our 30 blown save 2008.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
does this sounds a little like westcoastbirdwatcher to anyone else?
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Nah
There are no odd references to the polio vaccination, 15th century English parliament, or the mating rituals of silver back gorillas while making some parallel to the state of the Cardinals front office.
Plus, there’s nothing in the post about Kyle Lohse. Also, I don’t think he has much interest posting here anymore since Larry’s gone. Larry was the only person he’d even respond to so I doubt it’d be much fun for him anymore.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
plus
someone saw him on scout.com Cardinals board the other day talking about Worrell’s pity party…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Starting pitching should be priority number one.
The Cards ranked 24th in MLB in RAR (using tRA) at 67 RAR. League average was 121 RAR. Three teams were over 200 RAR (Arizona, Toronto, and the White Sox).
Adam Kennedy, if he performs half-way between 2007 and 2008, is -3 wins offensively compared to average over 700 PAs. With .25 wins for playing 2B, .5 wins for fielding talent, and 2 wins for replacement level, he’s projects at basically replacement-level. If you weight 2008 more than 2007 and include 2006, he’s more like -2 wins offensively, making him .75 WAR, which is worth about $4MM on the FA market. He’s not great, and could be upgraded, but he’s not a bad option.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
You know who would make sense
Randy Johnson
Acquire Boof Bonser. I am serious, and don't call me Shirley.
Oh heck yeah.
Can someone outline the expected Cards’ rotation and point out who’s already signed, who’s a possiblity from the minors and who the team seems to be considering signing (like might Looper be back at a lower salary)?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
That was tounge
in cheek, as they’ve already said they have no interest in Johnson.
Adam Wainwright
Kyle Lohse
Todd Wellemeyer
Joel Pineiro
Chris Carpenter
reserves would be
Mitch Boggs
Jess Todd
Clayton Morteson
Brad Thomspon
Acquire Boof Bonser. I am serious, and don't call me Shirley.
As for who they're interested in
Complete speculation regurgitated here, but Randy Wolf, Oliver Perez, Braden Looper and John Garland have all been mentioned in connection at some point.
Acquire Boof Bonser. I am serious, and don't call me Shirley.
I think the Cards should get Oliver Perez
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 8, 2008 2:00 AM EST up reply actions
-3 wins is a bit much
FWIW, i get -15.48 runs below average for AK, using park adjusted GPA from THT and weighting 2007 and 2008 by PA’s.
GPA PA | AVG NL Player AK 2007 0.204 306 | GPA 0.252 0.224 2008 0.242 356 | Runs 82.9 67.4 Mean 0.224 | R=PA*1.356*(GPA^1.77)
Over a more realistic number of PA’s (500) it’s just 11 runs below average, and if he can be as “good” offensively in 2009 as he was in 2008, he’ll only be 5.84 offensive runs below average over 700 PA’s (4.17 over 500). If his defense is anywhere near where it was last year, he’ll be at least an average player.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
How many PAs is the -15.48 runs over? If it's in the 306 to 356 range, we're on the same page.
If not, I’ll tell you that I went by B-Ref’s batting wins, mentally pro-rated to 700 PAs, and averaged. Like I said, that’s pretty much a low water mark, and said he’s probably more like -2 wins on offense. To show my work from BRef:
2007: -2.0 in 306 (-4.5 pro-rated)
2008: -0.9 in 365 (-2.0 pro-rated)
Over a full season, adding in 2 WAR for replacement-level and using a full fielding projection, you need to use 700 PAs. Our numbers SHOULD line up more, though, hmmm.
Marcel projects him at a .295 wOBA. That’s (.295-.335)/1.15×700 = -24 runs. Bill James projects a .315 wOBA, or -12 runs. So -1.5 to -2.0 runs. So, we’re good.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
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