Hall of Fame Discussion

Looking at Rice, we can see that he isn’t perceived to have that many tremendous seasons. 1978 was amazing and certainly worthy of the MVP award, but he finished in the Top-5 five other seasons, despite season totals less-than-awe-inspiring according to WPA (MVP’s are usually 5.00) or Win Shares (30 or better). Rice never drew walks especially well, hit into a ton of double plays, and amassed tons of RBI thanks in part to great players hitting in front of him. Yes, he hit a lot of home runs (4 seasons of 39 when hitting 30 was quite an accomplishment) and maintained a career .298 batting average. But isn’t it a little strange that a player who finished in the Top-5 for MVP voting six times is having so much difficulty getting enshrined into Cooperstown?
Notable similarities:
Albert Belle – short career (10 seasons worth of games), but a similarly feared slugger; not much of a fielder; five time Top-8 for MVP; per 162 games played, averaged 130 RBI, OPS+ of 143 [conclusion – if he had played 2-3 more healthy years and wasn’t perceived as a jerk, he’d be a shoo-in]
Bobby Bonilla – fairly similar career numbers (WPA/WS), but certainly lacked the impact of Rice; twice in Top-3 for WVP; eight times w/85+ RBI; played nearly 900 games both at 3B and OF, although not due to any defensive excellence; OPS+ of 124 [conclusion – no shot at HOF, but the comparisons are close enough to make one doubt Rice’s legitimacy]
Jose Canseco – probably the closest to Rice’s level of impact (39 WS ’88); lost a lot of time due to injury; per 162 games played, averaged 40 HR, 121 RBI, OPS+ 132; considered a bad fielder, 837 games at DH; thought of as a lesser player than his (traditional) career numbers would indicate [conclusion – steroids notwithstanding, he would still have a hard time trying to get elected due to this era]
Jim Edmonds – actually this is a bit of a stretch, as the numbers indicate that JEd has a significant edge over Rice, without completely factoring in his defensive superiority; averaged 30 HR &113 RBI per 162 games played (OPS+ 132); MVP vote – 4th in ’00, 5th in ’04; 8-time Gold Glove winner [conclusion – classic case of a borderline HOFer, but I think it is clear that he is a much better choice than Rice]
Fred Lynn – despite being a victim of injuries (9 seasons of <75% games), has similar career numbers (WPA/WS); far superior defensive player, MVP & ROY same year; OPS+ of 129 [conclusion – without the DL time, there would be little question as to who the better player was]
Don Mattingly – played 2 fewer seasons, which hurts his career totals; 4 times Top-7 for MVP, one award; excellent defensive first baseman; OPS+ of 127 [conclusion – final numbers seem a little lacking for 1B, even adjusting for short career]
Kirby Puckett – another short career; ended with a .318 BA and averaged 19 HR & 99 RBI per 162 games played (OPS+ 124); not judged that highly by WPA (compared to someone like Boggs), probably due to low walk totals; 6-time Gold Glove winner, with seven Top-7 MVP finishes [conclusion – a bit of a stretch as a HOFer, but really only lacks the hanging-on numbers to gain "legitimacy"]
Bernie Williams – very similar numbers to Rice, both career & season impact (WPA/WS); career OPS+ 125 (vs. 128 for Rice); solid baserunner & outfielder, complete player; never considered among the elite (top MVP vote was 7th) [conclusion – probably won’t be seriously considered, except for the pro-NY/World Series crowd, but arguably was better than Rice]

Realistically, I’m not sure what these comparisons have brought us to, other than that he matches up with other contemporaries who are a stretch, or have no chance, to be enshrined.

Just for fun I thought that I would throw out the numbers for some players (again, just the OF-1B-DH types) who would seem to have a greater claim to glory than Rice

Orlando Cepeda was a one-time MVP with the Cardinals in 1967, led the NL twice in RBI (1961-Giants, 1967-Cardinals), hit 379 HR’s, and had a .297 batting average, .350 OBP, and .499 SLG. Jim Rice was a one-time MVP in 1978, hit 382 HR’s, led the AL twice in RBI (1978 and 1983), and had .298 batting average, .352 OBP, and .502 SLG.

They are from different eras, but their numbers are remarkably similar. Cepeda is in the Hall of Fame. Does that mean Rice deserves to be in the Hall?

but I want Lee Smith to be the next inductee

Parker is the closest contemporary hitter in comparison to Rice. Parker had a line of .290/,339/.471, and Rice’s was .298/.352/.502. Parker had 339 HR’s and 1493 RBI. Rice had 382 HR’s adn 1451 RBI. They were MVP’s of their respective leagues in 1978.

Defensively, Parker won 3 Gold Gloves, and Rice didn’t win any. You could say Rice was helped by Fenway. Was Parker helped as much by Three Rivers Stadium and Riverfront Stadium as Rice was by Fenway? Those old Pittsburgh and Cincinnati stadiums were certainly better hitter’s ballparks than the Astrodome and Busch II. I am surprised that Parker didn’t get more HOF votes.

is pretty good for saying why Raines belongs and why Rice does not.

That once Orlando Cepeda and Tony Perez were inducted, that should have opened the door for other borderliners such as Dawson and Rice.

i am not sure where i saw the article, but the writer was in favor of a pyramid system

top level: best 25 players, and to add anyone later means you have to remove somebody from the top 25; people can only move down, not up

2nd level: the next best 25, same rules as above

3rd level: the next 50 best, same rules as above

4th level: no limit here