Cards Closing in on Khalil Greene? (Updated: Yes, and they got him.)
by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ on Dec 4, 2008 12:03 AM EST
Email
Print[Update - azruavatar - 6:47am]
[/end update]
http://blogs.nypost.com/sports/st/archives/2008/12/khalil_greene_o.html
After the Looper fiasco, I was looking forward to Rafael Furcal at short. Not sure what I think about this yet...
Maybe we buy low on him and get a solid defender with decent pop and a cool name for pennies on the dollar? I'd be pretty happy with that. I'm definitely glad it's not 2/$18 mil for Edgar Renteria. The optimist in me says that a vacation from Petco would do KG right, but I haven't seen/am too busy right now to look for his home/road splits. Depending on what it cost, I think this could be good news.
So who plays second now? A bat presumably, but which one? There's not a lot out there on the market. Maybe Mo trades for Uggla? Maybe the Ludwick-Kelly Johnson fantasy? I'm definitely at a loss for 2B.
783 comments
|
9 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I would rather have Felipe Lopez
He is set to make $6.5M this year. We shouldn’t pay over $3M for his services. He was actually worse last year than Cesar Izturis. A classic buy low by Mo, but I hope that we are paying low.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
He (Greene) was comically bad last year...
but it was a fluky year for him, at least offensively. In every offensive category, his numbers were the lowest he has ever posted, including his rookie season. He’s not (that) old—29—so I think it’s a safe bet to assume those numbers will go up, particularly in a non-Petco stadium. Also, it’s $6.5 mil next year, but only for one year.
"The Mollusk" makes me want to rail LSD crystals off my friends' sternum. Rage."
by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ on Dec 4, 2008 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
I meant to say "not" including his rookie season
"The Mollusk" makes me want to rail LSD crystals off my friends' sternum. Rage."
by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ on Dec 4, 2008 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
greene
He might have been worse than Izturis at the plate last year but over the course of his career Greene has been the better hitter. Greene is also an above average defender. Lopez is an awful defender who is looking for a multi year deal. Greene may cost us 6.5 million this year as a low risk stop gap at short for 1 season. If Greene doesn’t bounce back then he is gone. If you sign Lopez to 2-3 years at 4+ million per than it is by far a riskier move. This is a smart move- fill a hole on the team and remain competitive without losing payroll flexibility this year or in the future.
by block writer on Dec 4, 2008 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
I think that it is likely that he will have a big year
He definitely had a fluky year last year, his OPS was about 150 points below his average from before 08. He also will be moving away from Petco which will certainly help his stat. When you include the fact that he would also be hitting in a lineup filled with guys who get on base like the Cards, he should certianly have a very good year.
Greene is a great low risk / high reward guy
I know he was awful last year, but before then Petco was masking much of his hitting ability. He could be a minor star.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:53 AM EST up reply actions
plus
it’s a contract year. i think i can be mildly optimistic without being completely foolish. His ops in his worst year ever was like 3 pts less than izturus and he’s a plus defender, so worst case the cards have something like izturus. Likely case, he improves on that ops and there’s a marginal SS improvement over last year, even if it’s not 2007 vintage Greene.
that's a good point
contract years always bring out the best in players.
On with the (good) youth movement!
not always
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
Lopez’s career AVG/OBP/SLG is .262/.330/.395 (89 OPS+).
The new predicted batting average on balls hit into play method at http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/ cites Lopez as one of the luckiest hitters of 2008.
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/10/preliminary-2008-total-value-estimates.html marks him as a -3.8 fielder at 2B for 2008 as a National (chose WAS because he had three times as many innings there), and 2B is a less defensively demanding position than SS.
I would be personally disappointed if Lopez even displaced Kennedy – especially if it’s 2+ years.
They mentioned...
2 relief pitching prospects. Hopefully neither of those are named Perez or Motte. I think if either one of those are involved, the Padres will have to eat some salary and makes the move to not offer arbitration to Springer a HUGE mistake.
It better be Worrell
That guy deserves his shot and the Cardinals seem hellbent on not giving it to him.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
I'd be fine with Worrell going in this deal.
I wasn’t overly impressed with him the first go ’round.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
Well he is one of our better hitting
pitchers
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song:
I don't know what you've seen.....
Out of him to make you think he’d be anything better than the last arm in the bullpen, but I don’t agree. A funky delivery in and of itself isn’t enough to succeed at this level.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
Dude ... it's not the arm,
it’s the 519 career OPS+ that has us all bedazzled!
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 4, 2008 9:53 AM EST up reply actions
Per erik
The numbers present a very strong case for Worrell, look no further than his MLE-57.7 innings, K/9 10.77, BB/9 4.68, .233 batting average against, 3.19 FIP. If that doesn’t do it for you, 25.6% of the batters he faced went down swinging, the third highest rate in the PCL for relievers, behind only Jason Motte and Jason Bulger. I mean, with those kinds of results, one would think we’d be talking about him in the same breath as Motte and Perez.
But, since you don’t like player who aren’t at the MLB level, you wouldn’t know this.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
Don't like players not at the MLB level?
Won’t argue with you if you are going to exaggerate and make stuff up.
I’m not the only one that hasn’t been impressed by Worrell, AAA numbers or not. The list of players of that put up good numbers in the minors only to do NOTHING at the MLB numbers isn’t a short one.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
That 2 week audition
sure was disastrous for him at the MLB level.
And you won’t argue it because it is true. You’ve spoke ill of every prospect we’ve had over the last year UNTIL they show up at the MLB level and do exactly what people expected them to do. Then you’re a convert.
When over a period of time you prove this characterization wrong, I’ll believe you.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Sorry about that....
Worrell and Samuel would be a nice haul for the Pads, and we can certainly spare some righty relievers.
I'd bet money...
That Perdomo is in the deal. Makes sense as to why he was left of the 40 man. Maybe Mo has had this in the works for a couple weeks.
Well, if the report is true that it's 2 "prospects"
then it won’t be Thompson. Plus, we may need him to fill out the rotation next year………….
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
yes, yes we do.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Man, he could do anything
What is Greene going to do? He could be really awesome or really bad.
The Bad, Ugly, Awful
1) Greene was an abomination last year offensively. Worse than Izturis.
2) Greene costs $6.5 million and prospects.
The Rays of Hope
1) Greene has a career road OPS of .802. That’s a high number for a SS.
2) Greene was steady as hell from 2004-2007, when he posted a .727-.795 OPS every year.
3) Greene’s defensive reputation is good, though his 2008 stats put him closer to average. His +/- seems to drop every year, unfortunately. His RZR is middle-of-the-pack consistently.
Which Greene will we see? That’s the question.
as long as he hits better than Izturis
and he keeps up the good defense, I kinda like this move (well, only if we pick up a good starter)
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
although
I’ll make up my mind when I hear which pitchers we traded
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 1:16 AM EST up reply actions
While that's true
That was his worst season in the big leagues, by far, while 2008’s numbers are probably as good as Izturis can do over a full season. I have much more faith in Greene to bounce back in his walk year than I have faith in Izturis to do much of anything next season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I don't think he'll be worse than iztoo next year though
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Our next Bi-polar Betty?
I agree with you. Could go either way. I do think that 2004-2007 Greene makes this move potentially very high reward. Just to put another positive spin on it, his power numbers stack up as the best we’ve ever had at this position. Looking past his 27 HR season in 07’…..In 04’ to 06’ he hit 15 HR’s each year. The only Cardinal SS’s that ever hit more were Renteria in 00’ and Daryl Spencer in 60’, both with 16. Greene was slugging over .425 each of those years. We only have had 10 seasons (of 400 plate appearances or more) from our SS position at that level.
Not discounting that this is a gamble, and that it could go very wrong. Or that he lacks on base % ability. There is a really good best case scenario here though.
by Merry CRasmus on Dec 4, 2008 3:20 AM EST up reply actions
Without checking the facts
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that if you added up all the home runs hit by everyone who’s played shortstop for us since Renteria left, you’d still be south of 15.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
I would bet you are wrong...but then again maybe not
2005 Eckstein 8
2006 Eckstein 2
2007 Eckstein 3
2008 Izturis 1
That is 14 from just the “starting” short stops, I bet the backups had more than 1. If you are only talking starters then you are indeed correct otherwise just slightly off
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
I was talking everyone
but had no idea Eck hit 8 home runs in ’05. What the hell got in to him that year?
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
When did the Mitchell Report come out again?
[/sarcasm]
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Larry Walker
Most common 2 hole that year was Larry Walker 44 games, Edmonds 34 games and Nunez 26 games, so I think it says a lot about who was protecting him, when you are followed by Walker, Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen for most of your games
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Further study
I did a game by game analysis of his home runs:
May 17th D Eckstein (1, off B Wagner; 9th inn, 0 on, 1 out to LF) Walker and Pujols due up
May 25th D Eckstein (2, off M Redman; 3rd inn, 1 on, 2 outs to LF). Grudz due up
Jul 30th D Eckstein (3, off G Carrara; 6th inn, 2 on, 2 outs to LF); Nunez due up
Aug 3rd D Eckstein (4, off J Beckett; 3rd inn, 0 on, 1 out to LF); JRod and Pujols due up
Aug 7th D Eckstein (5, off C Reitsma; 9th inn, 3 on, 1 out to LF); JRod and Pujols due up, walk off grand slammer
Aug 27th D Eckstein (6, off M Stanton; 7th inn, 1 on, 0 outs to LF). Edmonds, Pujols and Molina due up
Aug 31st D Eckstein (7, off J Vargas; 3rd inn, 0 on, 1 out to LF); Taguchi and Pujols due up
Sept 21 D Eckstein (8, off R Ortiz; 2nd inn, 1 on, 2 outs to LF); Edmonds due up
So despite my earlier comment a bout Walker it appears Edmonds and JRod were his most common following batters after a HR each with only 2 appearances.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Well, I still think it’s cool to know the history of those HRs just for fun :) Thanks for the post. Check out http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/09/the-protection-externality-it-doesnt-exist/ sometime for a perspective on whether or not lineup protection really exists, though.
What I think
What I think my research into his HRs showed was that he didn’t really have “protection” consistently from anyone, at least not behind those HRs. The only true protection that I beleive in is protection from IBBs.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
05 was ful of great moments for Eck
he hit the walk off granny against the Giants, after Pujols pulled J-Rod back to the dugout from the on-deck circle while Eck was at bat. He also had the HR after pulling back the bunt against the Braves – I believe.
Greene's raw stats were worse than Izturis, but park-adjusted they had similar OPS+s
Greene was at 64
Izturis was at 67
Greene has a career 95 OPS+, which is above-average for a shortstop, plus an above-average glove.
-.75 wins offense (probably conservative)
+.75 wins position
+.5 wins fielding
2.5 WAR overall, which is a touch above average.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Except Izturis was +19 plays according to +/-, Inaz had him as a ~20 run player
Greene was not. Greene is likely to be better next year, but he was utterly atrocious last year.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I was addressing offense only with Izturis and Greene
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Gotcha
Just sayin, Izturis as a player wasn’t actually terrible last year.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I, too, was also considering defense
but, now that I have the time, will definitely read the thread.
I think that it comes down to this:
We’re trading the player we know (Izturis), who has little upside, for one that has a tremendous amount of offensive potential, is in a contract year, and is coming off a horrific season for a last place club.
While he’s not as good defensively as Izturis (if you believe RZR and OOZ, few in the MLB are), he presents a 20+ OPS+ improvement if he improves to his career average, which includes his cruddy 64 OPS+ from last year. It’s not a stretch that he could be a 95-100 OPS+ player next year, which would be large improvement over Cesar.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
But!....
…is it worth double the price of Izturis? For one year (contract year), I’m okay with it. I just don’t think he is a drastic improvement over Izturis, but given the SS market, we’re not going to find anybody that is a drastic improvement over Izturis.
I really don't like this at all
the only way I’d feel comfortable putting Greene on this team is as a spring training NRI. no amount of guaranteed money makes sense, considering they’re already going “cheap” but not offering arbitration to anyone.
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.
Actually he is sign under market value 6.5 mil
Renteria is expected to sign tomorrow for 2yr 18 mil
by bearcatcardfan on Dec 4, 2008 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
gfr
The optimist in me says that a vacation from Petco would do KG right, but I haven’t seen/am too busy right now to look for his home/road splits.
does petco kill all hitting or just power hitting?eqfrw
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
Greene was eerily as awful
on the road as he was at home. Actually, he hit for more power at home.
In 2006 and 2007, his home split was right on line with 2008 but his away split carried him as an offensive player.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:43 AM EST up reply actions
he was also miserable last year vs LHP
contrary to the rest of his career.
I really think he’ll bounce back, based on his BABIP peripherals, although the research done by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix at THT seems to indicate that he wasn’t as unlucky as I thought he was a month ago…
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
I remember you advocating him
I think it might be a good speculative move. I advocated making a long term move here if you can, but if you have to trade Ludwick to do it, or if the Furcal dollars are close to what is rumored then I don’t see where that should happen.
In one sense it is a huge risk, because he was abysmal last year. In another it is not, because you are on the hook for one year again. One drawback is that we are very likely to have to play the same type of game again the next year, and maybe the year after that.
I really want to see what is being given up for him. I’m assuming not much. If this deal happened in 2006, or 2007, it would have been expensive. In that sense it’s a well timed gamble for value. Outside of last year, he held up real well away from Petco, so I feel there’s a good chance this works out. OBP is going to be bad, just a matter of how bad. Hope it is north of .300. I expect some power and solid defense though.
by Merry CRasmus on Dec 4, 2008 2:21 AM EST up reply actions
If he bounces back (to what he was before last year)
There’s a pretty good chance he hits ~.280/.330/.500, his home/road stats are astounding.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:29 AM EST up reply actions
Last 3 years...
Home: .214/.275/.378
Away: .265/.307/.462
Yeah, no kidding
I was just trying to point out the reward by removing last season.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
If he does that
I’ll dance a jig…
As the commenter above posted, his road splits aren’t even that good. He’d have to drastically improve his plate discipline to have an OBP north of .320 next season, which could happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I wonder how well he will get along with Tony
Is Greene a little “out there”? He fractured his hand last year when he slammed it on a storage chest ending his season. I’m sure it was an act of frustration but it makes you wonder. I can imagine him and Tony getting into it at some point in the season. (Just kidding …I think) He does have one thing going for him that Tony will like …..the MULLET!!
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
I'm pretty sure
it’s just long hair that happens to be pulled back because he’s wearing a cap.
On with the (good) youth movement!
Kind of like this dude?
We have Jeff Spicoli playing SS….DUDE!!!!
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
I think this might be a photo of Greene's press conference
after he found out about the trade.
His quote: “Dude I can totally afford to have Van Halen play at my party now!!”
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
I read the article in the san diego paper
I was skimming through the comments and I saw Jason Motte and Chris Perez and I flipped out but then I read that post carefully and it was just a fans fantasy so I could breathe again.
as long as last year was a "fluke" and not a "lingering injury that nobody's mentioned"
I guess I’m okay with this. It’s one year at $6.5M. I’d be more annoyed but the SS market is so terrible this year. Not sure what we’d get that would be better without spending twice as much.
So, between Miller and Greene, we still have about 11 or 12M to play with.
Next priorities:
Ship Kennedy somewhere.
Get a 2b.
Probably one or two hands for the bullpen.
I guess the real question is whether the bulk of the money goes to a marquee name closer (hoffman) and knock wood for Carpenter, KMac or Boggs to start, or a middle of the pack starter (wolf, looper) and knock wood for Perez or Motte to close well. If we don’t have to eat a chunk of Kennedy’s salary or not, there could be a little more flexibility in the $ dept.
Unless you can tell me what we could hypothetically spend Kennedy's money on
I see no reason to trade him.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
well, he doesn't want to be here.
that’s always fun for the clubhouse.
On with the (good) youth movement!
Yeah, but if he's the strong end of a platoon he'll be fine
…and who cares if Kennedy is upset? I don’t. He’s Adam bleeping Kennedy no one cares.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
It might be different if he was named the starter
TLR really hasn’t given him that much playing time (I’m saying based only on observation). If he were given some sort of guarantee that the job was his to lose and he is going to get most of the ABs against RHP and maybe some chances against LHP maybe he would feel differently.
I know I get on Hal McRae alot
but maybe he can fix Greene’s approach. And maybe just maybe he will become the 2004-2007 version again or better?
To be honest I am liking this move more and more. Plus this is his contract year so I have a feeling we are going to see some pretty big numbers out of him this season. He will also be in a better line-up than he was in San Diego and he did hit pretty good at Busch in the few times he played there. I know he hit a homer off Looper last year at Busch and I think he hit one in the 06 playoffs as well.
One thing is for sure….I am pretty sure he will be better than Cesar. So that is a big plus. The thought of getting 15-20 HRs out of our SS has me a little excited. If only he can get on base more. Hal McRaeI am looking at you………
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
Or Maybe Pujols can fix his approach
n/m
"I have CDO. It's like OCD, but the letters are in alphabetical order. Like they should be."
You beat me to it
The Man as the honorary hitting coach.
I know he will probably be sloted 6th behind Santa, but I imagine Tony might put him in the two hole occassionally. I think he has potential to do some damage there, but I hate his strikeouts.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
I would rather see a donkey show permanently placed in the LF bleachers than put .304 OBP in front of Pujols
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
dooooooooooooodd
i laughed,
hard.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
I like this move for if he doesn't work out its only for a year.....
Just waiting to see what pitching the Cards are giving up for him…….. thats where I am concerned a bit with this trade.
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.-Rogers Hornsby
That
should be a stock quote around here.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Dec 4, 2008 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
thats so true
each of these risk moves are each a good idea taken in a vacuum, but it seems like its all we ever do. We never get the impact guy, we get the bargain
and we are alway “pretty good”
It used to not be that way, but since thats been the MO the team has fallen out of contention.
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
Glaus and Walker weren't impact guys?
if we put together a package sufficient to get a real impact guy in a trade, there would be nothing but gnashing and wailing around here. Same thing if we went and put together a Zito-style package to get Sabathia or someone of that ilk.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
hudson or Furcal or whomever would be
so would a Burnett or something along those lines.
I know they are injury problems, but all of those guys are at least good when healthy. Greene could be fine but he is just as big of a risk, and he has had four major injuries, and he has shown some inconsistency now hitting.
its not just Sabathia vs. Lopez or something.
Glaus was a godsend, and it was trading our problem for yours and we got lucky as far as injury and production is concerned.
Walker was great for half a year, but he was an old man winding down his career not a building block, plus he was four years ago.
I guess part of what im saying is if a guy is out there we need I just dnot think this team will get him. they will try to make some kind of odd deal and get someone who “could” be good but is super cheap.
im not advocating going out and getting the highest of price players, but splurging for something here and there isnt bad.
It seems like we wont spend on any one special player to make a position clearly an asset, we would rather gamble every year.
and it works many times, but there are many times its a Ponson, or a Clement too, or the many unsuccessful 2b guys. And thats the problem we waste resources on those guys and want to get cute instead of shoring up a position because we are gun shy.
instead of having a great team we have a competitive one
they are are reasonable gambles (some work, some dont) but they are never impact guys.
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
also
ive heard over and over 2009 and money off the books, and now that its here…
its just more of the same.
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
I just don't think that's true
the org was more than willing to open up the checkbook on Rolen, Edmonds, Carpenter, and Pujols. They have also made plenty of more ill-advised decisions.
It’s true that they weren’t fond of outbidding people on the open market, but I’m willing to cut them some slack on that. Especially since this is Mozilak’s first true offseason. Let’s see what he does with the team before we jump on him. There are a lot of ace-type pitchers on the fa market this time around. There’s plenty of money to spend on them, now that we have a cheap SS that didn’t cost any of the mlb roster. We still have a glut of outfielders to trade.
I really doubt if the current roster is our opening day roster. and Greene was a shrewd move. This trade won’t hurt the team, and it coudl likely be a vast help.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
shortstop market
is full of gambles. who else is there? renteria? he was abysmal, plus he’s old/has no upside. Greene sucked, but at least he’s entering his prime years. Plus he costs 3 mil/yr less and doesn’t require a commitment past this coming season.
I think your gambling/impact analogy is based on false assumptions. There is no specific player the cardinals “need”. There are always multiple options with various levels of risk. In this case, there aren’t any young building block players available in positions the cards need. I’m not sure what kind of move you’re advocating. I’d only want the cards to be massive spenders on a guy who will be around and producing for years and years, even if he’s hurt for one of them. Otherwise, keep it flexible and don’t get screwed by billy beane.
Most of acquisitions of big names aren't good deals.
Much better to go with lots of smaller bargains and develop the exciting guys from within. Ludwick, Ankiel, and Pujos aren’t enough excitement?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Agreed
Acquiring “impact” or “exciting” players from outside one’s own organization is usually cost-prohibitive either from a $$$$ or prospect standpoint.
I do however see a future where teams trade minor league players for minor league players in an effort to fill organizational holes. These types of transactions will be a true test of an organization’s ability to identify talent.
also im not saying we need to do this every year or for ever hole
but maybe ONCE if we need something.
sometimes you need something and its expensive you just need to bite the bullet and buy it because its necessary
thats why many of us think they are kind of cheap.
none of us expect them to sign Zito, Soriano, or C.C. in any year
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
I just dont want to waste Pujols career on average teams that dont have a shot
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
How much of an offensive impact do we really need at SS anyway?
There seems to be a general tone of apathy toward this deal. I think we upgraded our position (albeit slightly) without costing us significant amounts of salary or prospects.
Also, how much offense do we really need anyway? We had ONE player perform above his expectations, and several perform way below them, yet we still scored more runs than most of the league.
I am personally excited about our lineup as it is.
1. Schu/Barton/Rasmus
2. Duncan/Ank/Rasmus
3. Pujols
4. Luddy
5. Glaus
6. Molina
7. Greene
8. Kennedy/Grit/Ryan/Green/Lopez
Even if Ludwick regresses some, we should still be pretty stout. If Pujols’s elbow is stronger, his power numbers may actually rise. Glaus WILL hit lefties better this year. Ank should stay a bit healthier, and hopefully stop swinging at everything thrown at him. The Schumaker/Mather/Barton platoon should always throw a hot bat or a good matchup on the field. If Rasmus makes the team, he will provide a good OBP and some fair power numbers along with his good speed. Molina may regress a bit, but he seems to have found is stroke as a line-drive singles hitter.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Also, how much offense do we really need anyway?
As much as we can? Why stop getting better? A run scored = a run saved
by JI on Dec 5, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
While Ank can definitely improve
he did take his fair share of walks, and his batting eye wasn’t that bad.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 5, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Projection
Marcel: .301 wOBA (600 PAs) = -18runs
Chone: +5runs
Positional Adjustment: +7.5runs
Replacement Level: +20runs
Total: +7runs
Just looking at the numbers, Khalil looks like he’s about half a win better than replacement. That would me he’s worth around $3M. So at first blush, the Cardinals seem to be overpaying. A few factors to consider:
1) Short of Rafeal Furcal, the SS options are limited on the free agent market.
2) PETCO is hell to hit in. A bunch of Padres hitters have bemoaned this fact publicly (including Brian Giles) so it’s possible that there’s a psychological factor for Greene that would be remedied by moving out of PETCO. This could improve his offense some.
3) His 2008 Marcel .322 but he posted a .264 wOBA. His regressed version would be a slightly higher which points to some form of bad luck. (I’d love for StatCorner and Fangraphs to get their numbers lined up. I think they are handling certain events in wOBA differently.) A .322 wOBA would be be 10 runs better than his 2009 projection.
4) I’m not sure what aging factor to apply to Greene who will turn 30 next year. Maybe dock him 2 runs or so?
That’s what the numbers point to at least.
Marcel doesn't address home ballpark, though, which is huge in Greene's case
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Sure
but it’s also possible that we’re looking for reasons to answer down numbers when we should simply call it decline.
I’d be willing to call Greene a league average player next year but not much beyond that.
The positional adjustment takes care of that.
Compare the player to league average and then use a positional adjustment. Tango’s done a lot of work on it and if you search The BOOK Blog for ‘positional adjustments’ you’ll find some detailed articles on them.
I think they are handling certain events in wOBA differently.
They are, it may have something to do with IBBs. Now that Matthew ’s back feel free to ask away.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
http://www.statcorner.com/blog/2008/11/woba.html
“Just so y’all know, the reason that our wOBA is different to Fangraphs’s is because we include reached base on error as part of the formula and they don’t.”
Oh sweet Jesus
No joke, I had a dream last night about the Cards signing Khalil Greene and woke up to see the news. Stupid collective subconscious…
I have to say I’m pretty disappointed with the signing for reasons having almost everything to do with cosmetic issues for the Cards. Seems like a poor aesthetic fit, even though he’s put up decent numbers at times. Does that make me a bad fan?
I think I’m going to call in sick to work with JoeMorganitis.
"Well, folks, this game began as a tiny worm and is blossoming into a large cobra." - Mike "The Moon Man" Shannon
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Dec 4, 2008 8:33 AM EST reply actions
Mo never makes any moves
If Mo makes a move, then Mo is not making a good move. It’s 1 year for greene, it provides the 1 year stopgap to get a fix on kozma and our greene to see how there moving along. I think this could come out on the good end for us. And why is everyone " wah he was horrible last year" yeah and sometimes in baseball, get this, people have bad years………Woooooooooooooooooooooo kinda dumb right to have a bad year, wow.
by from First to Third on Dec 4, 2008 8:44 AM EST reply actions
Sometimes people have bad years, yes
But he didn’t have merely a “bad” year. He fell off a cliff. He went from consistently productive to offensive abomination.
I do expect he’ll bounce back, though, at least assuming there’s no injury holdover problem.
We may have just screwed the Cubs
one article I read believes that the salary relief from dumping Greene may allow the Padres to keep from trading Jake Peavy.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 8:52 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
bwahahahahaha
that’d be really really great.
Add Peavy to that rotation and… oh man
by Scarecrow7775 on Dec 4, 2008 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
Whatever, they'd still choke
And then they’d be on the hook for 120 million to 8 players for 2010 and not have a single average major leaguer in their system.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Just a thought
Peavy’s entire postseason career consists of two starts against the Cardinals. We beat him up both times (though he was pitching with a broken rib in one of them, iirc).
Peavy to the Cubs! :P
screwed the cubs?
Any deal is worth it if we screw the cubs… LOL
If Greene has a good year for the Redbirds and Peavy stays in San Diego this deal is well worth every dime. If it just keeps Peavy with the Padres it still might be worth it…. :)
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.-Rogers Hornsby
by thegashousegang on Dec 4, 2008 9:03 AM EST up reply actions
Also the Braves...
who, if they aren’t going to trade for Jake Peavy, will presumably have Kelly Johnson available to play 2B for El Birdos. Whereas Greene is pretty clearly going to be a stopgap, I view Johnson as a long-term solution at second. I mentioned it in the beginning of the thread, but it’s known that Atlanta wants an outfeld bat, and its further known that we have Ryan Ludwick on our team. Ludwick for Johnson would be a big move. Just sayin…
"The Mollusk" makes me want to rail LSD crystals off my friends' sternum. Rage."
by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ on Dec 4, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
Johnson can't field, so he's nmot much of a LT solution.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
it's not that he can't field
he’s a league-average 2B, within the margin of error for defensive measurements. I’d love to have KJ playing 2B for us, all things being equal.
The “defense” argument against him is that we have an elite fielder at 2B now, and KJ isn’t enough better than Kennedy offensively to justify trading Ludwick for him.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
What about...
….Ludwick to Texas for Ian Kinsler?
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 4, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
it would take
more than just ludwick
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 4, 2008 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Texas needs pitchers anyway,
wheras the braves seem to be building to compete now and are absolutely in the market for an outfielder like Ludwick.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
I'm not so sure...
…it would take much more. Texas has Joaquin Arias banging on the door for a regular MI job and they could really use another bopper in the outfield to go with Hamilton and Byrd. It’s a question of relative needs…
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 4, 2008 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
I think Murphy might be that guy for them
Texas is also probably going to be dealing a catcher or 5 at some point as well to fill some needs.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
They scored the most runs in the MLB last year
They scored 50 more runs than the next team. Offense isn’t really their problem, I don’t think, even with Milton Bradley likely leaving.
suddenly this deal is not-bad
Haha
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
If they’re throwing prospects and/or players for the privilege to pay it, I would be amused to see Peavy’s contract added to the wall at http://www.cubsnet.com/node/790 . They’re already on the hook for 80.9M in 2011 – with six (6) players! 50M in 2012 for three (3)! And thes are are only names like Soriano, Lee, Dempster, and Fukudome. They’re fielding some quality teams right now, but man, that payroll.
according to olney via mlbtraderumors . . .
“The Cubs and Padres "have a basic framework in place” for a Jake Peavy deal built around third baseman Josh Vitters. Things may pick up after the Cubs’ ownership situation is resolved." I don’t know much about Vitters . . . he has played in low A ball it looks like. He has 324 ABs and put up .327/.435/.762.
If the Padres want a guy to man the hot corner in the future, it would seem like the Cards match up well. Even excluding the Walrus & Freese (who they may not want back)—the Cards could offer Craig . . .
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
Better yet
if they are looking for a 3rd basemen, why did they trade Freese for Jim Edmonds charred remains?
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
well, freese was
really struggling when he got traded . . . seems like he was called a C+ prospect—the cards jumped him two levels to AAA and he bloomed . . . but your right, it could just be idle speculation like 50 to 99% of hot stove talk is
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
It's more about Vitters
He’s the best player in the Cubs paltry farm system, so even if you didn’t have a need for a third baseman, you would make him the centerpiece of the trade because the Cubs have very little else to offer you in terms of prospects.
Vitters isn’t comparable to Freese — he’s a top 50 prospect. Freese wasn’t in the top 100 when he was traded. He really came into his own this year. The Pads thought they were getting the 2005 Jim Edmonds for a lesser prospect in hopes that a lefty power bat could push them to the top of the division — it just didn’t work out that way.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Vitters is a much better prospect than Craig/Freese
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I believe you . . .
but can you show & tell . . .
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
finishing a thought . . .
there is so much time & distance between A & AAA that it would seem easy for a player to struggle—lose his shine & distinction as a good/great prospect . . . which is why i’m asking about vitters
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
the hype is definately there with Vitters
but he hasn’t done a thing above low A ball and he’s been there for a year and a half. People considered him the best hitter in the draft, well I’d hope the best hitter in the draft could rake a low A in his second go around there.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
i realize
that numbers don’t always tell the whole story on a prospect—but here are Freese and Craigs numbers
Allen Craig’s minor league line 363/.498/.861
Freese’s minor league line .385/.529/.914
what do people see in Vitters that makes him so much better. Is he struggling to adjust? Lots of tools that haven’t been put together yet? Injury plagued?
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
Wait
Are those the traditional Avg. / OBP / Slg.? Surely not, right? They have to be OBP / SLG / OPS, don’t they?
by Ray Lankford on Dec 4, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
you're correct
they were obp/slg/ops here are avg/obp/slg
.307 .385 .529 Freese
.300 .363 .498 Craig
.290 .327 .435 Vitters
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
I know Vitters is really young compared to Craig and Freese
I know Freese went to college (not sure about Craig) but Vitters was only like 17 when he was drafted. Although I’d still like to see a little production at Peoria from my first round pick if I were the cubs.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
that could be Mo's plan.
Peavy would make the Cubs absolute frontrunners by FAR for the central crown. Maybe he feels that taking some salary off the Padres’ books will discourage them from giving their ace to the Cubs. I know it’s a long shot, but this could be a much more brilliant GM move than we know.
On with the (good) youth movement!
nice
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
high risk, high reward
If Greene reverts to his pre-2008 offensive stats, then this is a great deal. It almost doesn’t matter who we give up provided that they really are relief prospects. I don’t think guys like Perez or Motte qualify as prospects anymore.
Then again, Greene could stink the joint up.
I wonder;
Is this a one year stop-gap?
A buy low and resign long term (provided he performs at a level that warrants resigning)?
What do we have hear- contract wise?
It's low risk
We (presumably) aren’t giving anything up of value, and it’s a one year deal.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
$$$$$$
Given the Friars situation, I’m assuming the Cards are picking up all the 6.5 mil for next year
Ozzie Smith
It just occurred to me that the last time the Cards made a trade with the Pads for a short-stop we landed Ozzie.
Here’s hoping this one works out half as well.
Leadoff hitter?
Greene’s not gonna be a leadoff hitter. I’m wondering if this means we’re keeping Skip and playing him somewhere..
Or else we’re committing right now to Colby leading off. HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH.
Yeah
He doesn’t have anywhere near the OBP to bat leadoff. If Tony keeps batting the pitcher 8th then I see Greene hitting 7th and the 2B batting 9th.
With this deal we have an interesting lineup construction...
Since Greene really shouldn’t bat at the top of the order and doesn’t really help the club in the 9th spot either, there’s a real dilemma in lineup construction at the present time: We have one too many 6 and 7 hitters in the lineup (Ankiel, Molina, Greene). I’m assuming that the current lineup would have Kennedy batting 9th.
The question is, which of these lineups is the best one, assuming that Greene returns to somewhere near 2007 form?
Lineup 1:
- Rasmus/Schu/Barton
- Ankiel
- Pujols
- Ludwick
- Glaus
- Greene
- Molina
- Pitcher
- Kennedy
Lineup #2:
- Rasmus/Schu/Barton
- Glaus
- Pujols
- Ludwick
- Ankiel
- Greene
- Molina
- Pitcher
- Kennedy
It basically comes down to whoever bats second, I like Glaus up there because of his high OBP, but he seems to be more comfortable in the 5th spot in the lineup. If Ank is able to post a .350+ OBP he could hit up there as well. If the club was able to dump Kennedy somewhere and acquire a 2nd baseman that could lead off that would solve a lot of problems, namely, we wouldn’t have to play Schumaker and could replace him with another bopper like Duncan or Mather, or the team could move Ank to right, play Rasmus in centerfield and bat him second, which is where he belongs, imo.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Well I'd say
Molina 6, Greene 7, Pitcher 8 would make sense. Molina can’t run, Greene has the pop to allow him to jog home. The total lack of walks matters less with the pitcher behind him (though of course this would encourage Greene to swing at even more than 35% of out of zone pitches). Don’t know how much else we can say given that it’s gotta be a certainty that we trade off some of the OF logjam…
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I agree.
I always felt having Molina bat in front of the pitcher was kinda defeating the purpose last year since it was so difficult for the pitcher to bunt him over. And, without having the pitcher hit behind him should help Yadi see better pitches.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
I'd say Molina getting free walks is a good thing
since he’s not much with the bat.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:38 AM EST up reply actions
Walks don't push your batting average over .300
especially since walks aren’t reflected in batting average and also since he swings at so many pitches out of the strike zone.
Oh, and he walked a whopping 32 times last year.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
You seem to think Molina is getting all kinds of free walks
and that he can’t hit. Although, the contrary is actually true in both cases.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
Molina is a below average hitter
and if he gets a couple of extra walks because he hits in front of the P, good on us.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Not for a superior defensive catcher he's not
If you take into account his defense, he’s an above average catcher overall. I’d rather have him behind the plate than have a horrible defensive catcher that can hit.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
well
his defense has zilch to do with his hitting and saying “molina is a below average hitter” is not saying anything about his overall game…just his hitting.
I still thing he's a very good player
just a mediocre hitter
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
I blame draysbay
I like that even VEB’s glib affirmatives are based on numbers.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
It's a nonVEB one.
I see it at LL all the time and assumed it originated in those parts since there’s a lot of crazies* over there.
*I enjoy the crazies.
I don't know what league average catchers are but...
Molina is a career: .262/.316/.360 hitter, and had a .304/.349/.392 2008. His OBP has been at least .040 higher than his BA every season due to walks. I don’t think him walking has anything to do with the pitcher (he has around 3-5 IBBs each year too) but more to do with his good eye for the strike zone.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
.040 ISOP is pretty low
League average for a C is .255/.328/.387, or a .073 ISOP.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
2008
in 2008 he had a .088 ISO
and career is .096
I am using the PECOTA ISO = (2B + 3B + (HR*3)) / AB
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
huh?
I have never heard of ISOP, also what does walks have to do with Patience when you are hitting close to .300 anyway? I can be patient yet able to make contact on the balls I was waiting for. A better stat for Patience might be swinging strikes or swings outside the strike zone.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
from your original post
"His OBP has been at least .040 higher than his BA "
OBP-BA is ISOp. It’s a stat I first saw over at baseballprospectus, but it’s been used a number of places with various names. Players with high ISOp are valuable in that their offensive value doesn’t fall off a cliff when they slump (a la Yadi 2005/6).
I was just pointing out that Molina’s “OBP-BA” is significantly lower than league average for a catcher. He hit .300 this year, so he was valuable, but if he has bad luck next year it could impact his value much more than, say, when Adam Dunn has a run of bad luck.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
Yes
But I didn’t call it patience and I have never heard of the ISOP stat nor was I able to find anything but references to it, no page detailing how to calculate it (though it seems simple enough). I also disagree with it being a good measure of someone’s patience.
To the original comment though I was mainly stating that Yadi has been consistent in taking .040 OBP worth of walks regardless of where he has hit or has been behind him so I doubt putting Greene behind him vs the pitcher would change much about his walk rate.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Why no Greene in the 2 spot?
It might helps his odds of seeing a pitch in the zone. Though I most certainly do not enjoy his OBP numbers and what they would do to Albert’s RBI chances.
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Dec 4, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
Skippy
Could he play 2nd? He sure grounds out to it enough (when he’s not slapping singles over it)
"I don't believe what I just saw!" ~ Jack Buck
by itsalemmon1019 on Dec 4, 2008 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
What about trying Greene
in the 2 hole? with him being such a free swinger, having #5 behind him might give him some pitches to hit
by let'er rip skip on Dec 4, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
I'd entertain it
and with all of his strikeouts, we’d still have a guy on first for Albert.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
Personally, I’d hate to put that low of an OBP in the top of the order and wouldn’t expect him to put up better numbers by batting in front of Pujols per studies such as http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/09/the-protection-externality-it-doesnt-exist/ . Have there been any new findings on protection analysis?
Tell Ryan Ludwick hitting in front of Pujos doesn't help
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
He didn't hit that much better when he hit in front of Pujols
Ankiel hit better this year hitting behind him, than he did in front of him.
There’s not much of an effect.
I would argue that hitting in front of Pujols should be harder because pitchers should be going max effort to get you out so there’s no baserunners on when he comes up.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
Ludwick - Small sample size
2nd .339/.407/.701 1.108OPS
4th .295/.369/.587 .956OPS
He had about 1/2 as many ABs in the 2nd slot though
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
It was still elevated at .330
in the #4 hole.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
What I'm saying is that
1) It was a small sample, so whatever
2) But even if you ignored that, once you dig a little deeper he was pretty similar in each spot
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Was I disagreeing with you?
All I did was post the facts, both are similarly good, both are his most ABs and better then other positions he was in and his BABIP was elevated all year long, thus he is a perfect candidate for regression, I think he might have been better in front of Pujols mainly do to the pressure of hitting in an RBI spot vs the pressure in an OBP spot.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
And batters shouldn't approach their at bats differently
whether they are hitting 2 or 4
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
That depends
if Albert Pujols is hitting #3 and Adam Kennedy is hitting #5, you should adjust accordingly if there is a runner on 2nd base.
Don’t laugh, Adam Kennedy at #5 could happen!
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
Hell, he was #4 a few times last year! [barf]
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
Shouldn't doesn't mean they don't
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
When Duncan/Ludwick hit second
They swing away like any other. I’m pretty sure that LaRussa emphasizes to them that he wants them to hack like a “4 hitter” would and not to try to punch the ball the other way for a single.
Roles are stupid. Hitters should hit to the style that suits them regardless of where they bat.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
Ankiel hit worse in the 2 hole
because almost all of those ABs were vs. LHPs. There is a very real Pujols efffect in spite of what the general theory of protection might say.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
"almost all of those ABs were vs. LHPs."
Where did you find those double-situational splits? That would be a cool thing to be able to look up.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
MLB has some double situational splits
but they don’t have batting order splits at all it seems
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
I can't "prove" it
but I remember that Ank was hitting four/five early in the year against RHPs and hitting second vs. LHPs. I wish those types of stats were available, but you are just going to have to trust me….or not. No time today to sift through gamelogs for the whole season, but a spot check of the April games verifies that. He may have batted second a few times against RHPs, but usually not.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
that would make some sense
since Duncan was in the lineup early in the season against RHP.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
Ugh, no. You want guys on base in front of Pujols/Ludwick/etc.
Why would pitchers give him pitches to hit when they know he’ll swing at anything?
I’d seriously consider Pujols in the #2 hole — more ABs and more good hitters after him to drive him in.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I think if you hit Glaus second
and Ludwick/Ankiel 4th and 5th, you’ll be fine
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
really hope worrel is involved
he seems to be disgruntled
guy deserves a shot somewhere, even if its with the pads. They do have a history of using quirky relievers- Cla Meredith comes to mind.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
Holy crap
He is clearly pissed. *
*I’d be pissed to if they kept calling up Jimenez over me after posting those numbers.
What a baby.....
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
Did you read that?
I just wanted to hit the ball hard somewhere to be honest with you. I crushed that ball, as you seen. I can hit a little bit; I hit in college. I would like to get more at bats in the future. If the Cardinals would have given more (time) in the big leagues as a middle reliever, I would have gotten more at bats. I don’t handle the bat like most pitchers.
Like that can’t possibly be the real Mark Worrell. If it is, his agent needs to contact Midol about an endorsement deal they’re a match made in heaven. The pitching stuff, okay, he should shut his mouth in public but whatever, but that’s unbelievable.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I just double but-ed a sentence. Whoops
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I don't think he understands what the duties of a middle relief pitcher actually entails
Hey Mark, if our middle relief is getting a lot of at bats, then we’ve got big issues…………….
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
Big issues?
Like pulling OF’ers in the 6th inning for defensive replacements? Those kinds of big issues with roster management? :D
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
I just wanted to hit the ball hard somewhere to be honest with you. I crushed that ball, as you seen. I can hit a little bit; I hit in college. I would like to get more at bats in the future. Ifthe Cardinals would have given more (time)I hadn’t walked half the batters I faced in the big leagues as a middle reliever, I would have gotten more at bats. I don’t handle the bat like most pitchers.
fixed.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
Oh, fer pity's sake,
offhand allusions to PMS do not constitute misogyny.
"Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." --Churchill
Make that two babies.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
THE CARDINALS MANAGEMENT IS NEVER WRONG!
^ That clearly got deleted from your comment.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nice!
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 4, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
That was only the title
you forgot:
WHAT A FOOL THAT WORREL KID IS TO QUESTION THE GENIUS!
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
Name-calling aside
Worrell airing his grievances aloud isn’t going to help anyone (even himself). That said, he has been passed over for inferior relievers last year.
Sadly
for M Worrell’s case, Jimenez’ very pedestrian numbers were mostly far better than his. I think it is probably a good thing for the org that both of them are gone. At least we actually got something of value for Worrell.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Given his comments...
…about being better than some of the Cardinals’ “up-and-coming prospects,” I don’t think Worrell had Jiminez in mind. Try Perez, Motte, or McClellan, in which case I wish him a certain kind of luck in SD.
C'mon Sooner!
what’s the matter w/ you? You’ve been around here long enough to know better than that!
After reading that
I’d be surprised if it wasn’t Worrell.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
I would be surprised if it was him
it seemed like a joke, if that was real then he surely is a baby
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Please explain to me, because I really want to know.
why someone in your organization, performing well at the highest level, not one, but two years in a row, doesn’t have a clue what his future with you is. He was passed over. Did someone ever sit down and tell him what they perceived his deficiencies to be?
You say he’s being a “baby” for speaking up—after two years? And the minute he does, he’s in a trade?
I hate hearing this kind of stuff. I think it’s no way to handle players who are ASSETS, as long as you own the rights to them you need to treat them as such. I’ve posted about this type of thing before, and the Cardinals really need to start thinking about how they treat ALL of their players. Every single one of them-from the lowest minors to the biggest superstar, should be treated with respect. Every one of those players have friends who are professional baseball players. As they move from team to team, they talk about how they were treated before-if the Cardinals want to be the first choice of the players that DO have a choice, they really ought to just fix it. It’s bad public relations, it’s bad player relations, but I guess the attitude is that we own you for six years, you’re just crap….
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
I think you're reading a lot into the words of one particular player
I also think that you’re taking his honesty for granted. If this was another player talking about Worrell that’s one thing, but he’s talking about himself and about how he “never got a chance” and “never got spoken to about anything”. I find that really hard to believe considering the organizations efforts toward player development.
Should every player know exactly where they stand with the organization and how the organization feels about them? I don’t think so, and I have a hard time believing that there are non-baseball organizations that operate in that manner as well. Mark should be more concerned about going out and doing his job than whether the organization likes him and has a spot for him. If he goes out and does a stellar job than the club will make room for him somewhere — I just don’t think that he’s done that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Well, I find it disturbing.
and I don’t think 2 weeks qualifies as a “chance.”
There’s no indication that Mark Worrell didn’t go out and do his job.
They don’t have to say anything to him, and he says they didn’t. It’s the Cardinal Way.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
He also said later in the article
“I’ve done everything they’ve asked of me”
So obviously they asked him to do something right? Or he just talking out of both sides of his mouth. I wish him well in his new home on a last place team.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think you're looking at this with a little tunnel vision
In your perfect world example of how a professional baseball organization is supposed to run, do you have any idea how impossible that would be to accomplish, let alone even being realistic?
And how many organizations run exactly like the Cardinals? I’d feel pretty confident saying almost all of them (if not all of them). The only reason you don’t know about it is because you aren’t tuned in to hearing it. This article showed up on a blog and I bet it only made it to mlbtraderumors because that guy checks VEB regularly for information.
They can’t coddle every single player and honestly, they really shouldn’t coddle any of their players. What are they supposed to tell a guy who is a fringe player? “Well, you aren’t very good, but you fill a role right here in Springfield, Missouri, so you’ll probably stay here the rest of your career.” Wow, that’s a way to inspire. Or are you saying they should lie to all of their players to get the most out of them?
Or maybe, the player takes it upon himself to know that absolutely nothing is handed to you in this sport. There are hundreds of guys who can do your job (especially when you’re a right handed relief pitcher) and you are 100% replaceable. Know that, work your ass off, and keep your mouth shut and you might find yourself to be one of the very few who actually make it to the major leagues.
Tons of players get passed over and treated unfairly. That’s baseball and that’s life.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
True, but remember where the club was this season in the bullpen.
Watching the club blow 31 saves, watching TLR give ridiculous chances to players (giving Kennedy at-bats in September while playing in RF), and watching TLR just wear out members of the bullpen (K-Mac) in September while he was playing the offense like he was trying to create the FEWEST runs possible. I spent a lot of September scratching my head and trying to figure out which inmate was running the asylum. Come on. If that doesn’t make a guy frustrated, then what will? If he wasn’t going to see the bigs again in September, then when was he going to?
There is also the possibility that he said all this deliberately to try to get a fresh opportunity.
He’s a talented guy and I hope he does well elsewhere.
we don't live in a big media market, too
Other managers have “massage the egos of the star players or else” in their tacit job description. Our star player is fairly ego-free, and our manager does his best communication on the line-up card. Fairly atypical for an organization-that-is-not-dysfunctional.
If you’re just clocking in to work in another city in the minors, it could pretty easy to lose sight of that, IMO. Add agents and the big-media into the mix, plus the Cards spent the last few years shuttling guys back and forth from Springfield without any real explanations — I mean, we can sit around and figure out the logic of those moves. Not necessarily the guy coming to work who gets a couple of words in his ear and has a game the next day. If someone puts it in a kid’s head that he can measure his improvement by how much the guys on the inside talk about him, well. It’s kind of like measuring HR’s annual review by what happens at the water cooler. It’s dumb, but it’s the kind of thing new, young employees do.
Surprise, the Cardinals simply don’t operate the way other perennial playoff teams operate.
Albert’s even fallen prey to that. He’s told people that there was someone underestimating him in the organization, while said scout (later fired) maintains he noted Albert from the beginning, if not as strongly as later possible. If he’s not immune to jumping to conclusions about the front office, how much more some kid on the rise?
Long story short, I don’t like a whiner either, and I don’t think it’s an excuse, but the situation’s ripe for manipulation and misunderstandings. Unless they’re named A. Reyes, I can see how some of these young impatient guys fall into the trap. By the same token, they wouldn’t be any good in the minors if they weren’t raring to get into the majors, and yesterday.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
i've got to say
that professional athletes don’t seem to be the most opened minded well-adjusted people in the world in general (not as a rule though). tons of money+a career that lasts about 10 yrs if you’re lucky+a collection of massive competitive egos necessary to drive a person to perform at the highest level every day=something less than the level of civility and professionalism the rest of us need in the workplace. Same goes for management. It just seems like the nature of the beast.
Yeah, well, change can be a beautiful thing......
I used the word respect in my post. Respecting all of the players cost zero dollars. It might cost you some of your time, it might be uncomfortable to have to say something the player might not want to hear, but so be it. I never mentioned coddling or babying them; that’s not what I mean.
You do know that Theo Epstein and Mark Shapiro meet personally with everyone with the big club at the end of the season-even the players that aren’t coming back, even the minor league call ups-all of them. Players are told the clubs’ plan for them next season at this meeting. It is also done by their assistants at each level with their minor league players. It can and is being done. I firmly believe that the Cardinals ought to consider it, especially if they are intent on growing their own. It ain’t going to hurt them to have the players feel respected. It will be a good investment of their time. It really will.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Dec 5, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
do we have the staff to do that?
Honest question. I still remember our front office going to work right after the WS. They may not have manpower. How many assistants do they have, and how are they allocated year-round? And time is still money. It may not be comparable to the Red Sox’s resources, at all levels. It may be another reason why Tony is so wound up when someone skips the Winter Warmup — how are we to know that’s not when they talk to their players? At team gatherings and while they’re on the field? That scouts and coaches aren’t passing the message along?
The other factor may be that traditionally former Cardinals and the so-called College of Cardinals filled that role.
That said, Aggie would probably be happy to help…
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
Surely we don't have the resources of the Red Sox,
but we have more resources than the Indians do.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
doesn't matter
sounds important enough that it just needs to be done, and at the beginning of spring training too. we have lots of extra coaches in for ST and each of these guys should have a mentor as long as they are in major league camp.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
I liked this quote
On LaRussa-
MW: After the game he told me, "I was sent back." That was it, that was all I ever spoke to him.
A guy is on the team 2 weeks and the only thing the manager ever says to him is pack your bags.
It almost feels fake because it feeds into every criticism the organization has faced over the last 3 years.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
Holy crap
Disgruntled is an understatement.
He’s got to be in the deal. He’s certainly never going to pitch for the Cardinals again after that.
gotta admit
it was kind of refreshing, seeing a guy speak his mind for once. Seeing grown men dribble platitudes gets old after a while.
I bet that interviewer about crapped his pants when Worrell started going off though… talk about a scoop.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
I like that the questions are still proffessional
like, he wrote the questions out before hand and just stuck to the script. Mark’s flying off the handle in rage:
MW: “These freaking idiots thought that Jason Isringhausen on one leg was better than me. I could throw the ball backwards better than he could at the end of the season. And yet, who gets the call? God, I just want to punch THE MULLET right in his freaking mouth!!!!!”
Reporter: “So, you have two dogs, a poodle and a chocolate lab. What’s that like being on the road away from them?”
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
LMAO
No kidding — There wasn’t any “Tell me how your really feel about t he organization….” follow up question.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
LOL, just checked out
the discussion of the Worrell interview at scout.com. Colby’s dad is in rare form. And westcoastbirdwatcher has a new home, apparently.
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=321&f=2089&t=3533689
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
That is too funny
Multiple posters go on rants about how they are the best Cardinal board out there. That some how they can influence the front office of the Cardinal’s seems laughably to me. I for one hope the FO doesn’t make decisions based upon boards and blogs. I think VEB makes plenty of excellent points but we just don’t have the same level of data as a FO would.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 5, 2008 2:44 AM EST up reply actions
Current Lineup:
Here is how I see the current starting 9 lining up:
Rasmus CF
Ankiel LF
Pujols 1B
Ludwick RF
Glaus 3B
Greene SS
Molina C
Pitcher/Kennedy 2B
Kennedy 2B/Pitcher
That lineup doesn’t look half bad if Ankiel can stay healthy, Greene can rebound, the last month of Kennedy’s 08 is a preview of his 09 though even his 08 numbers evenly distributed wouldn’t be half bad.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
I think Rasmus should start out in left.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
From watching Raz
play in Springfield in ‘07, he is a superior defender to Ank. His arm isn’t as strong as Rick’s but its still pretty damn good. He is much better at covering ground than Ankiel, and can track flyballs better. If he starts, he should be in center.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 4, 2008 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Since Rick is a plus defender
I’d wait to move everyone around until Rasmus is here to stay. You don’t want to give Rasmus the job, have him struggle, and jerk all your regulars around. Considering how well Schumaker played, I wouldn’t be surprised is Rasmus started the season as the 4th OF (getting regular PT at all 3 spots) , and worked his way into the everyday lineup .
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
I assume you are talking about
pre-injury Ankiel.
I’d be inclined to keep as much the same for Rasmus during his minors to majors transition as possible.
Exactly
You don’t move around a kid who has played brilliantly in CF his entire minor league career and force him to adjust to a new position while adjusting to big league pitching.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 4, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think a CF → RF/LF conversion should be tough for any above-average defender, but I’d rather him be in CF because he projects to be our best CF.
Your right
It’s probably not a tough switch. But Raz has historically struggled early on while adjusting to higher level pitching so why add in something he’s not used to on the defensive end? That was my point.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 4, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
It is, actually
It’s not like moving from 1B to SS or anything, but the position is played differently. Aside from the obvious changes in how the ball moves (the ball usually curves a ton on balls down the line), there’s also the notion of changing your “rank.” Asking a guy who has never played corner OF in his life to defer to another OF on a fly ball could be troublesome.
I think he’d probably handle it fine, but I don’t see the point. Rasmus is the CF of the future and probably better there than Ank anyway. Plus, Ank played corner OF at the end of last year. Put Ank’s gun in right, slide Luddy over to left. That’s a pretty damn good defensive OF.
As bad as the Mariners org has been
One thing I like is that the had Jones, Snelling and Balentin get used to playing left, right, and center in the minors. Adam Jones would have been the leftfielder last year if Bavasi weren’t so goddamned terrible at his job.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
still think they should have kept him at SS/2B
until he showed he couldn’t play the position.
Might have kept him in AAA a year longer, or two, but it would have been better for him over his full career imho.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/10/15/634867/best-center-fielders-of-20
Often injured, but -7 field. I still think he could be a plus corner, FWIW.
I have a hard time seeing Tony giving him the everday CF job when he has veterans who can play
unless he hits the shit out of the ball during ST.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
I've seen a lot of defensive #s this offseason
not one has Rick being a + defender in CF. All have him being well below-average. Rasmus belongs in CF.
But he's fine as the backup CF if Rasmus goes down
or needs a day or two off should he get into a slump or something.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I thought he looked pretty good before the injury.
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
Sure he made a few
Edmonds-like catches and gunned down those guys in Coors. But that wasn’t representative of his entire body of work in CF.
Rick made only 4 OF assists in center compared to Schumaker who made 10 overall and 5 in center. Many people only see Rick as a great defender because he made several spectacular plays that, arguably, if Skip or Colby were playing center would not have to have been spectacular.
If Raz is with the big boys next season he is the best CF on the roster. period.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 5, 2008 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
I'd perfer we not use assists
as a way to determine how well an outfielder fields. Otherwise, Manny and Soriano would be two of the best OFers out there.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
we can use it
as long as you consider opportunities etc.
2008 baserunner advances, schumaker vs ankiel, playing in CF:
Name Inn Opps Bases Kills Pct MLB_Rank Schu 552.2 66 40 2 .606 28 Rick 766.1 77 36 4 .468 3
Data from biljamesonline. Lower numbers are better for everything except innings, opportunities and kills.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
that's pretty cool
obviously not every base runner advancing is equal, but it’s still quite interesting to look at. who was #1 this year?
mark kotsay, .434 advance rate
Adam Jones was #2, at .467, so Ankiel just missed being one place higher. Corey patterson was #4, with a .500 advance rate.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
Now this is worth knowing about
just so that we can say that Mark Kotsay excels at something!
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Fair enough
I had links to other stats, but this thread is so monstrous it was taking forever to work so I just gave up.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 5, 2008 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
That's going a little far
those are actual outs that occurred due to the player. The problem is that they are so ridiculously rare, that it’s a very small subset of the player’s ability.
It’s like saying that Looper balked two more times than Piñeiro, so we should DUMP LOOPER NOW or something.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
And what stats have you provided?
“I thought he looked pretty good before the injury”
If we are going to go off how we “thought” players “looked” than I’ll add that I’ve seen both Colby and Rick play in the same ballpark in the minors and from what I’ve seen Rasmus is a better defender to Ankiel as of today, before he has even played a single game at the major league level.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 5, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
I liken this as to when
Ichiro was going to play center and Adam Jones was going to play right, the difference isn’t that much.
by JI on Dec 5, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
We don't have much data on him as a CF, so the stats don't help much
and we don’t have a game by game defense log (that shows him at say, +5 before he got hurt) that you would with a batting log.
Defensive stats have a long ways to go, so it’s not so bad if you go off your eyes.
by JI on Dec 5, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough
And if I go by what I have seen, I put Raz in CF and Ank in RF
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 5, 2008 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
going off what I saw in spring training last year
playing on the same field at the same time, with Rasmus theoretically trying to win a job and ankiel was not, ankiel was far superior. Colby was fast, but he got really, really bad jumps on balls after they were hit and didn’t take very good routes.
Of course that was a year ago, and they are probably both better now than they were then. Colby probably has more potential, since he is definitely much faster, or at least he was before the knee injury, and their arms are about the same.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
I wouldn't mind.
But to be honest I’m in love with Ank and want see him prove himself in center before he goes.
by JI on Dec 5, 2008 7:03 PM EST up reply actions
Rasmus
Glaus
Pujols
Ludwick
Ankiel
Greene
Moina
Pitcher
Kennedy
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Something I haven't seen hit on yet.....
Is that even if Greene struggles with his batting average and doesn’t walk much, having him in the lineup, as an RBI man behind Glaus and possibly Molina. Just having another guy capable of driving in runs, instead of having so many singles hitters in a row at the bottom of the lineup, will be an improvement.
I really think you’ll see Greene perform more on line with his career next year. Playing for a bad team is taxing.
And I’m glad I was wrong about us not being in on any of the quality MI’s.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
HAHA
RISP (2008)
Izturis: 97 ABs/ 23 RBI/ 6 SO/ 0 DP/ .216 BA/ .559 OPS
Greene: 76 ABs/ 23 RBI/ 24 SO/ 4 DP/ .145 BA/ .524 OPS
Khalil Greene was worse than Cesar Izturis last year at driving in runners.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
Haha nice find
It’s amazing how bad Greene was last year.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Now I'm confused
I thought we around here usually scoffed at 76 at bats as a small sample.
So, just to throw this out there, his career numbers with risp are:
704 PA, .247, .328, .447, .775
And Izturis is:
845 PA, .246, .306, .318, .624
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
The point was that
somehow Khalil Greene would be an improvement over Cesar as some run driving in machine. He was an awful offensive player last year and unless he has a big career rebound, he’s going to be very little better than Cesar was with less defense.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
Well.....
He did drive in the same number of runs (with RISO) as Izturis last year, in 21 less AB’s.
But that doesn’t account for anything, right?
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
You sure about that?
Weren’t the Cardinals one of the best teams at getting on base? Hard to imagine the Padres were better at getting into scoring position.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
Izturis hit behind the pitcher
A guy who hits with everyday players in front of him will almost always drive in more runs than a guy who has the pitcher hitting directly in front of him regardless of the quality of his team.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
But don't pitchers often bunt guys over to second?
Which would put them into scoring position, right?
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
OBP
of #5 hitter vs OBP of #8 hitter.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
Who hit in front of Greene in SD?
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
Edmonds was there for for only 20-30 games
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Right
but Greene only played 105 games and when he was batting in the #6 spot early in the year, Edmonds was in front of him.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
Edmonds at his worst was still a better hitter than a pitcher
…and even then it was only ~20% of the time or so.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
What argument are you having?
I thought the point was the pitcher bunting the runner over to 2nd, which would thus be the OBP of the #7 hitter in a LaRussa lineup.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
My argument
Fewer baserunners = fewer chances to drive in runs = fewer RBIs
Pitcher =bad hitter = bad at getting on base = driven in less
therefore Izturus probably had very few RBIs chances (possible the fewest of any non-leadoff hittter in the NL) because he hit behind the pitcher
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
regarding the number of baserunners question
the data is available at Baseball-reference under “game logs” and “splits”. I compiled it into a table and posted it below (silly SB nation threading was cutting off the numbers because this thread is too deep).
Short answer, izturis had many more opportunities (18) with men on 2nd and 3rd than greene, yet greene had almost 1/3 more RBI’s in fewer overall plate appearances. Greene did have 3 more PA’s with men on 3rd, lt 2 outs, and had the same # of RBI’s as izturis in that situation.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
Actually, I just got LaRussa'd
should be OBP of the #7 hitter.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
No it doesn't.....
Reread my post. Ridiculous.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
He was a worse hitter with RISP
if more Padres were on 3rd than Cardinals were (since RISP is 2nd or 3rd) Greene could sac fly FC them in for RBIs despite being the better hitter.
Reconsider what you wrote. Ridiculous.
You are making a BIG assumption.....
With the runners on 3rd vs runners on 2nd bit. Guessing you can’t back that up at all?
Greene will be a better RBI man b/c of his slugging. Period. If you have two bad hitters, but one has power, he is the better RBI man. Simplified, yes, but a pretty true statement.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
They had a .031 slugging percentage difference
with RISP last year. You’re making an equally large assumption that’s all attributable to that.
I take it you are not a fan of this deal?
And that you favor bringing back Cesar Izturis again next year?
He was an awful offensive player last year
True, and when park adjusted he put up exactly 3 points worse an OPS than Izturis did last year. He’s not Cesar defensively, few are, but he’s a career 95 OPS+ player. If he hits and OPS+ of 90 next year he’s an improvement, even with marginally worse defense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
In other words
If he Greene was horrible last season, and he was, then he’s probably not going to get worse next year, and if he gets only marginally better, he’s STILL and upgrade over Cesar
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
He'd have to improve by about 20 runs
Izturis was not terrible last year glove included. It’s well, well within Greene’s range of possibilities to do so, but it’s not a given either.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
given that he played
just over 100 games last year, I’d say improving by 20 runs is well within the realm of possibility.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
Technically playing in only 100 games probably makes his season look better last year haha
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
He's probably not going to get worse
famous last words. :D
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
You really think that he can perform worse than he did last year? 2008 was by far the worst season in his career — he’s been a league average or better SS with the bat in every season prior. What’s he going to do, come out and hit .200/.265/.300 next year? I highly, HIGHLY doubt that. He’s probably the best buy low candidate out there and he’s entering his final year before free agency. If he doesn’t play well this year, he’s not going to get a great deal of money in free agency, so everything points to him having a better year next year that in 2008.
Show me some evidence that he’s going to get worse…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Show me some evidence that he’s going to get worse…
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
That's not evidence....
Do you really think he’s going to get that degree worse next year? If you do, then you have a really asinine view of the world.
2008 is more than likely a statistical outlier than it is a trend.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
You assume he is going to get better
simply because at one time in his career he was better. He fell completely off a cliff in 2008. That has to count for something. Maybe he comes all the way back, maybe he comes half the way back. But, he is just as likely to be as bad or worse than he is to be a little bit better or all the way better.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Doesn't mean that it's not a good gamble.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree
But, he is just as likely to be as bad or worse than he is to be a little bit better or all the way better.
I couldn’t disagree more with you on that.
Regardless it’s a good gamble for the team to go after him for one season. Hell, maybe he has a great year and ends up as Type A! considering that they are three year factors, his 2007 would help him if he had a decent 2008.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Not true.
Listen, smart people have done lots of work with projecting performance. One year ago is slightly more important than two years ago and about twice as important as three years ago. Throw in some aging controls and you’ve got a projection system that’s about as good as you’ll get. You’re flatly overreacting to one bad season. It matters. but it’s not the median performance level you should expect.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
You are right
smart people have done lots of work projecting performance. I’m not arguing that you CAN’T statistically back up a claim that he will get better next year. That he will become 90% of the player he was 2 years ago.
But the latest data point we have is Greene falling off a cliff. That doesn’t give him a death sentence but it also gives credence to the notion that he is just as likely to continue on that downward path as he is to rebound.
The current trend is downward. Past data shows that an average will be higher than the lowest point. But the trend is downward and until there is more data to stop such a trend, at best you can assume it flattens out.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions
that works when you are projecting "all players"
When you are trying to figure out what one player will do, projection systems don’t work well. It’s an incorrect application of the theory to try use an algorithm to make a point about whether he’ll bounce back or not. Algorithms are dumb, they don’t know if he needs glasses or was playing with a toothache or had a baby or whatever.
I think you can find enough in the data to support a conclusion that he was unlucky in ‘08, but you can’t just ignore 2008.
Recommend you go back and re-read what Tango had to say about the Marcel system when it was first published; he goes into all of this in detail.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
Who's ignoring 2008?
Unless you define why a player is significantly different from the population of players that came before him, the algorithm is as good as anything.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
It wasn’t “one time in his career”, it was the entire remainder of his MLB career – four (4) good years compared to one (1) bad year.
It’s also virtually impossible that there’s equal likelihood between way worse, worse, better, and way better. If you were betting your own money on one of those four outcomes with even money payout, which would you choose? Or how about even worse vs better?
I think it is a sideways move
yet another year of a stopgap SS. If Greene plays well, they’ll try to resign him and he’ll want more than he is making now…thus we will be overpaying for a SS nearing the ‘too old of the position’ age.
If he plays like he did last year, he’s Cesar Izturis.
It’s ok for a one year deal but it doesn’t really help the Cardinals going forward. Are they just going to keep punting until Kozma might be ready?
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
What other options are there?
Jack Wilson? Older, has a lot of money left due him, would cost more to acquire (and he’s not available any more either
Rafael Furcal? We’d have to outbid just about every team with a SS need to get him and he’s going to want at least a 3 year deal, if not 5 at $15M per year….and he’s 31 years old….
Izturis again? You’re assuming that he’s going to put up 2008’s numbers again and not get injured. That’s a bigger risk than Greene returning to form…
There simply aren’t a lot of options to improve the SS position next year, so this move strikes me as one that made a lot of sense. We filled a need without taking on a great deal more payroll, losing good prospects, or offering a longterm contract that could become and albatross….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'd rather lose good prospects
for a good, young SS.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Like who?
Name some names please….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
A few
Reid Brignac
Chris Nelson
Both are blocked from above and below.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
And both...
…have severely disappointed as they moved to the upper ranks of the minor leagues. No thanks on both.
The minors are really thin when it comes to premier MI prospects right now. It’s a down cycle.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 4, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
so
you would gamble on a guy with no major league AB’s that hasn’t hit well at AA or AAA over a guy who has one year remaining on his contract, and is one year removed from hitting 27 homers while playing in the best pitchers park in the bigs for half his games?
You, my friend, are crazy or a really bad gambler.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Yes, I would
because Khalil Greene does nothing to solve the Cardinals long term SS problems and he costs them money they could spend on pitching rather than a player who was worse than our own not-so-good SS last year.
Brignac is 22 and would probably be starting in Tampa (or at least be up with the team) if not for the Bartlett trade.
Nelson is 22 and missed a year because of Tommy John surgery.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
Spending money on pitching is usually a bad investment
Considering this team spent money on Loshe, Pineiro, and Franklin, I’d much rather they spent it on a position player.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
But why pay $6.5 M
for a swing for the fences, strikeout a ton, play slightly above average defensive SS with the last name Greene when we’ve already got one?
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Up to this year
Tyler Greene’s numbers at High A and AA would project to be worse than Khalil Greene’s 2008, and he’s not as good defensively as Khalil is.
Name a pitcher that we could acquire for $6.5M for one season that would fit into our starting rotation. You’re presenting a ton of false choices.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
You were the one that said we needed a
starter for $6.5 M.
There is still money in the budget for starting pitching, although damaged slightly now by Greene’s contract. I can almost guarantee that $4 M is still set aside for a starter.
If Tyler Greene is the option (and I don’t think he is), that’s $10 M to be spent on starting pitching.
I’m not going to defend positions you made up.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
Because Khalilibot is likely to be much better this year than other one.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Both seem plausible explanations
I don’t know how much this will add to the discussions. But it seems like HL is suggesting that the cause of decline is systematic (due to aging or injuries) while fourstick et. al. are arguing that the decline is random (thus regression to the mean is possible this upcoming year). Because causality and controlling for other factors is so difficult, we might never know the truth even over time, because we are talking about an individual career and a relatively few # of years.
Personally, I lean towards the later theory since my unsubstantiated hunch is that systematic drop offs at 30 are rarer than a down year. I think if I weren’t so laze and actually plotted average decline trends for SS’s that I might have a better factual basis to go one way of the other.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
You don't know if either of those guys does either
Brignac and Nelson could come up and put up numbers similar to their minor league projections — then you’d be bitching about acquiring these guys who haven’t proven anything.
I guess we should go with Brendan Ryan, Felipe Lopez (who probably won’t be much cheaper than Greene), or Brian Barden at SS, just so we have enough money to sign, say, Braden Looper? That’s a fallacy…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
You're right
they could come up and do exactly what you described. At 22 years old, they could spend the next 3 years in our farm system making next to nothing and becoming nothing more than Brendan Ryan.
Where as Khalil Greene will cost $6.5 M this year and this year alone. Then he’s either gone or taking up more than $6.5 M/year in our payroll to be our everyday SS.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
You're right -- we should be looking farther ahead.
We should be looking at 2011 right now instead of 2009. In fact, I think we should just not have a SS next year, take an out every time his spot comes up in the order, and put a net out on the field where the SS should be playing. I mean, we really don’t need one next year right?
BTW, if Greene puts up a 95-100 OPS+, I’d have no problem paying him $6.5M per year for 3-4 years, and you wouldn’t either.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
He isn't going to take a pay cut
which is what you suggest.
If he does put up those numbers, he’ll be a strong candidate in a very weak SS market in 2010.
He’ll get more than $6.5/year.
I think your tone is hilarious, keep it up.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
I'll take the draft picks too.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
You have to offer players arbitration
first, before you can get draft picks.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
And the player has to be good.
Well, “good” as defined by Elias.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
If we offer him arbitration
and he stays for another year, doesn’t that solve your problem for another year at about $8M or so? Which is what Jack Wilson will make this season? Yes, and yes.
We would offer him arbitration, and if he has a good year there’s a good chance he’d be Type B and an outside chance he’d be Type A.
Also, I reserve the right to stuff your face with crow next year if he’s anywhere near as good as he’s been prior to 2008, especially since Izturis will end up being a bench player somewhere.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
$8 M
is a lowball number. If he puts up the numbers you suggest, he can argue Derek Jeter, Micheal Young, Jimmy Rollins, etc.
Very few players get paycuts in arbitration. Especially in their first taste of FA.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
Who thinks Greene's going to put up numbers that good?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Stuff my face with crow
why, I didn’t say he WILL be a bad player. I said he is just as likely to be bad as good and that it is a sideways move.
He could be great, I’m not saying he can’t.
And that would fit right in with this combative tone you’ve taken about this.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
I said he is just as likely to be bad as good
Which isn’t true
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
why don't you both grow a pair
and put your money where your mouth is, eh???
"so if you can’t understand what someone else is saying why don’t you just shut up about it instead of being a jerk-off?"
"i’d challenge you to offer me alternatives which would convey the same level of meaning without being even more wordy and verbose."
by baw on Dec 5, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
he'd have to be unbelievable next year
considering how bad he was last year to be a type-A free agent. He’ll be type B, if that.
Who would you give up for either Brignac or Nelson?
I’m sure you’re not the only person who noticed those guys are blocked, yet neither have been dealt, so I’m wondering what the asking price (or offering) might be?
And considering the scarcity of young good hitting shortstops in the league, I’d assume it’d cost a bit and I doubt Worrell and a PTBNL would get either of those guys. Being that SD was desperate to move payroll made Greene so inexpensive.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
I don't think that Brignac is going anywhere
If he were to get dealt for two minor league relief pitchers I’d seriously question how good he actually is.
My guess is that Nelson could be had for a good pitching prospect (Colorado never has enough of those), or a decent outfield prospect. I’m not sure that the Rockies would just give him away, however, considering how hard they’ve been trying to find a decent second baseman over the last decade or so.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Actually, the Rays are more likely to deal Bartlett than Brignac.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 4, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
Bartlett's value has never been higher
and it’s not likely to hold steady
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
+1
as they say. The only thing is the MI free agents in 2010 are even worse. Aside from Bobby Crosby, Brian Roberts, and maybe Freddy Sanchez, there really is no one at either 2B or SS to shake even a pathetically mangled stick at. I’m a fan of this Greene signing just based on lack of options, but it’s crystal clear that we’re going to need a long term solution at at least one of those positions. That’s one of the reasons I rep Kelly Johnson so much. He’s 27, signed through 2011 (though arb eligible), and more than pretty good. We’re going to have to give up something to get someone worthwhile, but in the absence of someone particularly worthwhile, I think 1 not-that-expensive year of Khalil Greene and 2 surplus pitchers is a good use of resources for the time being.
"The Mollusk" makes me want to rail LSD crystals off my friends' sternum. Rage."
by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ on Dec 4, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
76 ABs is a tiny sample – and in this one Greene still has a higher RBI per PA ratio, for whatever that’s worth :) The subject of RBI/RISP itself presumes that there’s a notable and consistent difference between a player’s normal and RISP output from year to year. I’m not personally shutting my ears to the idea, but I have not yet seen a large-sample approach that shows it.
Key words.....
LAST. YEAR.
You telling me Greene isn’t a better run producer than Izturis?
I see you are back to following me around. Have fun with that.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
He made more outs
than Izturis did in those situations. 9 times out of 10, more outs equals less runs batted in.
Izturis batted 9th most of the season, meaning he had the pitcher and Molina to drive in. Greene batted 6th, giving him guys that were generally better atheletes and in better scoring position than Izturis saw.
If Izturis had batted 6th all year, he’d have been just as terrible but probably would have driven in more runs.
And that’s sad to say for a hitter: “Yeah, well…I was only marginally better than Izturis in a counting stat because he batted in the pitcher’s spot!”
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah but who cares since last year doesn't represent Greene's true ability.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
It might and it might not
But I don’t want to discount it either way. That would be like ignoring Adam Kennedy’s 2007 going into 2008. His career wasn’t that bad but last year was horrid. If Greene lives up to the rest of his career than it is a good deal and we might sign him for another few years otherwise it was a one year flyer even if it was a tad expensive.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Yeah, that's the thing
with just point we can’t tell if it was just an anomaly based on injuries or whether it was a career decline. One of the top comps Greene has is Tony Batista. He went from power hitter in Montreal to being out of baseball two years later.
Sometimes, players just stop being good.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
wOBA+ 2004-2007: 103, 99, 100, 100. wOBA+ 2008: 82.
That would seem like a very steep career decline for a 28 year-old.
Any links to age effects by position out there?
I'm trying to find a site that gives wOBA+
I don’t want to have to calculate them all myself, but I’d be interestes in Adam Kennedy, 2002-2005, 2006.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
www.statcorner.com has wOBA, wOBA* (park-adjusted), and wOBA+ (park and league-adjusted). Sort by the latter two and look at Pujols’ rank from year to year :) I think they only go back to 2003, BTW.
Hmm, looking at that
it appears he follows the same type of curve Kennedy does:
Greene
103
99
100
100
82
Kennedy
98
98
98
91
81
Kennedy rebounded a bit to 93 wOBA+ this past season but very few of us were thrilled with his offense, sans that Cubs game of course. :D
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
Greene has always performed significant;y worse at Petco than on the road
It wouldn’t surprise me if the park got into his head the same way Safeco got into Mike Cameron’s.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
it's pretty rare that it happens
after they have a career year like he did in 2007, are still young, and are entering a walk year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
There's no way anyone would take Greene on if it did.
If Greene were truly that bad he would be untradable.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
If people thought he was as good as 2007
the Padres wouldn’t have simply gotten 2 relief prospects for him from the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Giants, Dodgers, Tigers, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Reds all need shortstops and he is likely the cheapest ‘name’ out there.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
If they get Motte or Perez
it won’t really be just a relief prospect. It’ll be a potential closer and possibly the best reliever in their pen.
It isn't
The release said it was two relievers that weren’t on the MLB roster at the end of the year — both of those guys were.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
There's no reason to overpay for a guy who had a shitty year
there pretty much a 100% chance that he’ll be better than he was last year, that doesn’t mean he’ll bounce all the way back, it means he just has to beat a .260 OBP and I like those odds.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
I'm confused by this
2 minor league relievers (who weren’t on the 40 man roster) are right in line with what Khalil Greene is worth? If that is the case, then obviously other teams don’t think he can bounce back. If they did, he’d be a much safer bet than giving Furcal and/or Hudson 4 years to play a MIF position.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
then obviously other teams don’t think he can bounce back. If they did, he’d be a much safer bet than giving Furcal and/or Hudson 4 years to play a MIF position.
No, and no. Those guys are much safer bets, but they are much more expensive and there is much more financial risk involved. You have to consider other team’s situations. How many are willing to take on salary? How many are interested in a one year stopgap?
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
They're dumping salary
They wanted it done by the start of the winter meetings.
Done and Done.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
did you just not follow him?
Hey pot … meet kettle! Both of you could stand to grow up a little bit.
"if Greene struggles with his batting average and doesn’t walk much"
How can you be a capable RBI man if he doesn’t hit the ball and doesn’t take walks? The implication is that he’s just making outs, which rarely drive in runs. Unless he’s going to hit a sac fly every at bat, your statements care mutually exclusive.
Sure it's better.
My point was things like “capable RBI man” are meaningless and worse, obfuscate the real value of a player.
ding, ding, ding
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
Good buy low for STL.
I had a piece going up tomorrow at BTB about how he was the perfect buy low candidate. Mo and company beat me to it.
as long as
the two relievers aren’t either perez or motte, then I’m happy with the deal…
http://www.redbirdramblings.wordpress.com
Mo, please go get Nick Punto!
waiting for the 2009 season to begin and colby rasmus to patrol centerfield!
What am I supposed to be looking at
on Redbird Ramblings?
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
I don't know
it’s just a plug….I gotta get to class in a couple of minutes, but I’ll have something up within the next couple of hours I think. it’s just a great way to get traffic to the old blog. sorry if I caused any inconvenience to anyone.
Mo, please go get Nick Punto!
waiting for the 2009 season to begin and colby rasmus to patrol centerfield!
Oh, ok
I thought there was a story about the trade there.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
post the link in your sig like HL does
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
actually
I don’t know how to do that…I’ve tried it several times but I could not get it to work.
Mo, please go get Nick Punto!
waiting for the 2009 season to begin and colby rasmus to patrol centerfield!
oh
I think I got it now…
check out my blog: Redbird Ramblings
Mo, please go get Nick Punto!
waiting for the 2009 season to begin and colby rasmus to patrol centerfield!
The post has been updated to say that the two pitchers to be traded were not on the 40 man at end of year.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
2009 Projection roundup
Khalil Greene
Bill James
581 ABs
36 2Bs
19 HRs
75 RBIs
135:39 K/BB
.241 AVG
Marcels
436 ABs
25 2Bs
15 HRs
55 RBIs
98: 30 K/BB
.239 AVG
Zips aren’t up yet, unless someone has them.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:57 AM EST reply actions
I don’t think Marcel is park-adjusted either, which represents a huge difference:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2008
Petco is 0.796 on runs, Busch is 0.943
But he played in 3 hitter friendly parks
for most of his road games, Coors, SBC Park and Chase Field. Which, could be inflating his road numbers as much as Petco is deflating his home numbers.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
Coors, SBC Park and Chase Field. Which, could be inflating his road numbers as much as Petco is deflating his home numbers.
Uhh no?
1) Sample size. There’s no way playing half a dozen games at Coors can inflated his road totals in the same fashion.
2) SBC park is not a hitters park.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
Also,
Wrigley Field
Great American Ballpark
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
In his career
small samples:
Wrigley – 72 PA (.636 OPS)
GAB – 56 PA (.973 OPS)
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
What's his career at busch?
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Actually, who cares, what's he have, ten ABs?
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Ha, yeah
probably. The park has only been around 3 years and he’s been injured a bunch during that time.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
23PAs 23ABs
.174 .174 .522 .696
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Small samples are worse than no data
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Uh, yes
Top PAs per park (outside of Petco) – Career
Coors – 181 (1.049 OPS)
SBC – 149 (.902 OPS)
Chase – 126 (.883 OPS)
Dodger – 116 (.626 OPS)
And SBC is a hitter’s park for RHB.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
I think I like this move...
Greene’s defense has been above average for the last few years (save ’05) Check his RZR at http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?playerId=1826
And his away splits from 04-07 were .280/.347 BA/OBP with 11 HRs. Even if you include 2008, which we all hope was an aberration- and if his hand is back to 100% probably was- his away splits were still .269/.330 with 9.5 HRs.
I agree this is a high upside pickup, but considering that we’re replacing good defense with good defense (a little drop off, admittedly) I think the risk factor is being a little overblown.
I am somewhat concerned about this deal
Not because I don’t think that Greene can succeed, but more so because I am concerned that with his addition, the Cardinals could become very home run dependent to score runs.
Ask the White Sox
When you don’t hit them, you lose. You become slow and clunky. You’re waiting around all day for the big inning. And with LaRussa, he isn’t going to press the issue to manufacture runs. Over the years, he’s lost his wild streak of doing that and has stayed risk averse to taking the bat out of any hitter’s hands.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
You are so incredibly wrong
When you don’t hit them, you lose.
Hitting a home runs is the best way to manufacture a run. Teams that hit a lot of home runs almost always are among the league leaders in runs scored.
You’re waiting around all day for the big inning
It’s best not to force things and make stupid mistakes that cost you outs and give you fewer chances to score.
LaRussa, he isn’t going to press the issue to manufacture runs. Over the years, he’s lost his wild streak of doing that and has stayed risk averse to taking the bat out of any hitter’s hands.
One of my favorite things about him.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
HR Leaders
2008: White Sox – 6th in Runs
2007: Brewers – 11th in Runs
2006: White Sox – 3rd in Runs!
2005: Rangers – 3rd in Runs!
Winning percentages
2008 – .546
2007 – .512
2006 – .556
2005 – .488
I’m still waiting for why I’m wrong that teams who rely on HRs have trouble winning when they don’t hit them.
Find me how many times those teams I listed scored off of any other hits outside of HRs and I’ll retract my statement.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
True
Balance is always the key with any offense. My concern with acquiring a strikeout prone, obp-hole, who hits home runs is that Greene makes the team more one-dimensional, which is concerning for a team where you already have a corner infielder (Glaus) and two outfielders (Ludwick and Ankiel) who derive much of their value from the home run. How many lineup slots can you fill with players like Greene and Ankiel before the team becomes dependent on the HR to score runs.
In a perfect world
It would have been nice to get a SS that was a high OBP leadoff-type, but I don’t think that animal was available on the trade market. Glaus knows how to take a walk and Ankiel and Ludwick weren’t terrible at it last year either.
Wrong
Getting on base and scoring is what matters with a true offense. You will find a good correlation with HR leaders and leaders in runs score in nearly every season
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting
Though:
A. Greene doesn’t get on base;
B. Has no speed; and
C. Doesn’t score many runs.
So, back to my original point, Greene is a one dimensional player offensively and I think brings the club as a whole closer to being on-average a more one-dimensional club which is reliant on the HR because of the absence of other offensive skill sets.
reliant on the HR because of the absence of other offensive skill sets.
Who cares about other skill sets when you can hit a crapload of homers?
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
He hit 10 last year
and 15 in most years outside of his one career year.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
I'm arguing that there are only two "dimensions" that really matter
In oder of importance
1) Getting on base
2) Hitting the ball out of the park
If you can do one or the other you’re probably a good offensive player, if you can do both you’re probably an all-star.
As to Greene, Petco depresses his number and has maked his power. He had repeatedly slugged .500 on the road. Granted Grenne won’t probably slug .500. But if he hits .270/.320/.460 he’s not a great hitter, but he would be a pretty good hitter for a shortstop. And, defense being equal, if take the guy who OBPs .320 with power over the guy with the .320 OBP who doesn’t have any power every single time regardless of how often his teammates homer.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions
Doesn’t score many runs.
He actually scores an average number of runs for a guy that hits down in the order, doesn’t play for a great offensive team, and plays in a crappy offensive park.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
So let's trade Ank...
And give Barton and Mather his PT. Should be able to at least get a LOOGY+ from the Jays or somebody… Ank is the only one of our volume HR/SO guys who doesn’t also draw a great number of walks (which I think goes a long way to balancing out the high SO totals).
Name some players who are really good offensive players and don't hit many homeruns...
Greene has zero AVG and BB value, I agree. But that’s not the case for Glaus, Ludwick, and Ankiel. All have significant BB skills and above-average AVGs.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
and none play SS...
FIrst off, Ank does not have above average ‘BB skills’, though many posters seem to think he’s developing them- which he probably is. Second, you’re comparing two OFers and a 3B to a SS. Not fair from the start. And Greene’s 04-07 away splits were .280/.347 BA/OBP with 11HRs. That is way more than “zero AVG…”.
His away splits also
were in some friendly ballparks as well.
This is back to the Matt Holliday argument.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
I think I'm on your side here.
I was trying to disprove the notion that the addition of one player will kill this team’s offensive balance.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Re: "Ank does not have above average ‘BB skills’ "
2008 BB/PA
NL average: 8.8 percent
2008 NL CF: 8.29
Rick ankiel: 9.1
Looks above average to me.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
Something is backwards here
Is that PA/BB?
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Giles' power gets killed by PETCO, but ok.
My point is that most good offensive players hit homeruns. They are a good thing. Equally productive players who don’t hit homeruns are much rarer (Ichiro, Mauer, etc.)
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
What you should have said
Is that you can name 3 good offensive players that hit above average home runs for every 1 good offensive player that doesn’t…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Let me rephrase...
You can name 3 good offensive players that hit above average home runs for every 1 good offensive player that doesn’t…
;)
Hitting homeruns should NEVER count against a player. The only argument, and it’s an overrated one, is that a team full of HR-ONLY players leads to imbalance and inconsistent scoring. But scoring often is ten times as important as scoring consistently.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I think what he is saying is if you score often you also score consistantly
by bearcatcardfan on Dec 4, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
These are things
You need to know if your scoring at home, or even if your just by yourself.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Dec 4, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
I define scoring often as total number of runs.
Scoring consistently is the distribution of those runs. Scoring 800 runs is obviously better than 600 runs. And scoring 5 runs every game is better than scoring 10 alternated with 0.
So given that a team will score X runs, scoring them consistently is good. But scoring an additional 50 runs beats the pants off of any improvement in consistency.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
To further complicate the discussions
The importance of offensive consistency (e.g. small variance of runs/game) might also depend on the importance of pitching/defense consistency. I think the goal is to elevate the median runs scored over the median runs allowed.
But I am agreeing with you. Adding 50 runs above any existing run distribution can only help and not hurt. I just wonder about what the ideal run/game distribution over an entire season might be.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Ichiro Suzuki
2002-2004.
2005-2007.
What are we trying to prove here?
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
2007 Dustin Predroia
I don’t know what we’re proving but this game is harder than I thought.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's one guy
ONE! He also happens to be a pretty rare talent. For him, I can name 5 other offensive players that play the same position whoa re as good or better in every single year who hit a lot of home runs.
I guess you could look for the middle infield Ichiro and pay him accordingly, or we could just have Greene for a year at $6.5M. I know which one of those is easier to find…..
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm not even sure what we are arguing
what’s ‘average number of HRs’.
No one is saying you shouldn’t hit homeruns.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
That is exactly what you're saying
when you say that Greene isn’t any better than Izturis — sure he is, he hits more home runs and gets on base at nearly the same clip.
You don’t even know what your original argument was anymore do you? ;-)
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I said he wasn't any better
than Izturis, offensively he wasn’t. Defensively, he wasn’t.
He can be better, but he wasn’t last season. We are spending $4 M more this year to find out.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
To find out?
How do you know Izturis will be any good? How do we know Pujols will be any good. It’s all a crapshoot with probabilities. Get over it. The best prediction we have is that Greene will be much better than his 2008 numbers, both raw and park-adjusted. If you disagree or claim we have no idea what to expect, then you are just wrong.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Which has been my point all along
You’re being overly pessimistic for no good reason whatsoever.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I don't know that Izturis will be any good
in fact, he probably won’t.
I don’t want Cesar Izturis back.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
So we should do what then?
leave an empty hole out there? Play Brendan Ryan, who’s about as good as Khalil defensively but can’t hit? Play Brian Barden, who might hit well, but his defense is atrocious? Sign Felipe Lopez, who might be worse with the bat and will be worse with the glove, and will cost around what Izturis cost last year?
I don’t understand you’re argument — you don’t like Greene, but your only solutions are two minor leaguers with no major league experience? Would you rather have Julio Lugo?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I don't dislike Greene
but I believe there should be temperament on this belief that the healing powers of the Birds on the Bats will return him to form.
We gave away nothing for him, which is great. We took on a tad more payroll than we should for a SS who wasn’t very good last year offensively.
But we still haven’t solved our SS problems longterm and knowing the way the Cardinals operate, instead of using their OF depth to acquire a longterm SS, this will probably be it.
I hope I’m wrong.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Doesn't this move make it easier to trade OF depth for a long term solution?
I think it does — you can look at players at the AA level now and not have to worry about them having to start in 2009. They could have a year to develop, or come up for a cup of coffee when rosters expand so we can see what they can do.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This is where you miss the point:
We took on a tad more payroll than we should for a SS who wasn’t very good last year offensively.
You shouldn’t judge a player based on his 2008 season. You should judge him on what the most logical expectation of 2009 is. 2008 is only part of that projection.
A better sentence would have been:
We took on a player making less than you’d expect for a good-fielding shortstop with an expected 80 to 85 OPS+.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I think you are arguing with
yourself. I believe all HL is saying is that Khalil Greene last year was no better than Izturis yet you say he is a better player. Well last year didn’t prove that. I don’t like talking for people but maybe all he is saying is that we shouldn’t count on Khalil to “revert to form” like it is absolutely going to happen. I don’t think he is arguing, just making a case that he might not be Khalil of 07.
"It is easy to be brave from a safe distance." - Aesop
Greene is a better player
His prior seasons and his projection for 2009 are better than Izturis’ prior seasons and 2009 projection. That is the definition of a better player.
I never said he’d be the Khalil of 2007, but as Sky pointed out below, if he’s an 85 OPS+ player next year, which is easily in the realm of possibility, then he’s a 2.5 WAR player at SS. There are very few 3+ WAR SS in the MLB, so he’s potentially, and probably, a much better player than Izturis.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Khalil Greene was a better player
than Izturis in 07. He was not in 08. That is all HL is saying. He also said we are paying 4 mil to find out in 09 if we got the 07 or 08 or in the middle somewhere Greene. There really is no argument here. It is HL just looking at it from a different angle. What happens if Khalil is worse than 08? It seems to be shrugged off like it won’t happen. What wrong with at least asking the question?
"It is easy to be brave from a safe distance." - Aesop
The same person making that argument
Is also saying that we should trade for a player like Reid Brignac because he’s young and talented, supposedly, and that he’s cost controlled for a number of years, making him a long term solution.
That’s being more predictive than anything I’ve said about Greene.
The facts, as they say, are not with you. All you can do is look at the projection metrics and feel that Greene has to make some sort of improvement in 2009. Nearly all factors point to that. Even a pessimistically modest improvement makes him a better player than Izturis.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I would hope he would be better
than Izturis, for $4 M/year more and costing 2 prospects.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
Let's see what Izturis signs for this off-season.
It will likely be more than $2MM and might be as much as Greene’s salary. Both are underrated.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Or he can
punch another metal box and not play at all. Predictions, as they say, aren’t facts. I don’t know what’s really going on here. I don’t understand why you must belittle a person because he doesn’t agree with you?Again this has nothing to do with Reid Brignac but what happens if Khalil Greene plays like he did this year. Why does that have to be shrugged off saying he will improve don’t worry about it? In regards to Brignac, Heaven’s to Betsy somebody actually comes up with a long-term idea at SS whos name isn’t Khalil Greene. This has become very petty.
"It is easy to be brave from a safe distance." - Aesop
If he repeats his 2008 performance
How does that hurt the Cardinal organization? Even if he’s that bad, he still plays above average defense and is only here for one season — then he’s gone. If he’s any better we might get a sandwich pick out of him if he leaves. He’s the ultimate buy low/sell high candidate.
If there’s a 50% chance that he’s going to be better next year, then I think you have to make that gamble because he’s not going to hurt the organization if he doesn’t improve.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Opportunity cost
is one way he hurts them.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Who do you want? Who will be better, both long- and short-term than Greene?
And please consider cost.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Minnesota yearly
has low HR totals, high run scored totals. The Angels in 2007 were the same way. The Dodgers were doing it in 2006.
We are filling the team with all or nothing guys (Greene, Glaus, Ludwick, Ankiel) who aren’t particularly good baserunners. Throw in Molina as a bad baserunner an the pitchers slot and 6 of the 9 slots are filled with swing for the fences, slow on the basepath hitters.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
I'll wait to see
who’s actually in the 2009 lineup before I start panicking. One or more of those all-or-nothing guys won’t be Cardinals by April.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 4, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Glaus, Ludwick, and Ankiel
Aren’t all for nothing guys. Glaus and Ludwick get on base pretty frequently via the free pass, and Ankiel has shown great improvement in getting on base over the last 18 months.
Rob Deer is an all for nothing guy, and Greene may be as well, but lumping those other three in there because they hit a lot of homers and don’t steal bases is a foolish statement.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Clearly Deer is in another catigory from Glaus and even Ludiwick.
That said, Ludwick’s “breakout” 2008 in terms of OBP and batting average is a clear departure from his historical norms and if he regresses (not at all unlikely) then the team will loose OBP ability.
Glaus, posted his second highest single season OBP last season, 12 points above his career average.
Ankiel is the greatest enigma because he is still developing as a hitter. His minor league stats would suggest that chances of him becoming Rod Deer like on offense is not out of the question. Heck Deer’s best seasons did somewhat resemble Ankiel last season.
Taking all of this into account, one must at least question the logic of adding to this mix a middle infielder with decent power, but outside that, marginal obp and contact skills. If you see regression from Ankiel, Ludwick and even Glaus, the team will still have to long ball to score runs (power as a key part of their game), but the other necessary complementary skills needed to make the power game work (like obp) may not be there, which would create such a one dimensional team.
Taking all of this into account, one must at least question the logic of adding to this mix a middle infielder with decent power, but outside that, marginal obp and contact skills.
Nope. Offensive value is constant regardless of the context of your teammates. You’re worth as many runs as you’re worth regardless of your teammates skillets.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
Obviously
Ryan Howard blows compared to Pujols
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
But he becomes even less effective
his high RBI totals were predicated on the fact that he had high OBP guys batting in front of him.
If you put Ryan Howard on the Cardinals with Skippy and whoever in the #2 hole hitting in front of him, he may hit just as many homeruns but it drives in a whole lot less runs and the team is worse for it. He doesn’t get on base for the players behind him, he doesn’t run the bases well.
He changes the offense.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
How is this relevant to the Greene discussion?
He’s not replacing Hanley Ramirez here…he’s replacing Cesar “All field/no hit” Izturis.
Are you arguing that replacing the best offensive player in all of baseball with a guy who hits more home runs and gets on base less would be worse for the ballclub?
I would agree with you, but it’s not a very apt comparison.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
no
Ryan howard is worth XXXX runs regardless. That’s what stats like wOBA do. They isolate the value of scoring events and total them regardless of what everyone else does.
No, not exactly.
Different skillsets will combine better or worse with a lineup’s skillset. Maybe +/- five runs so it’s not really a big deal. But it exists.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
The run environment for a lineup
in the MLB today, is abnormal enough to constitute a .5 win difference? I’m skeptical. Evidence needed.
That's probably on the extreme end.
But given the Padres or Giants lineups and parks and the Rangers’ lineup and parks, those are extremely different run environments. Let me work on a way to estimate the difference.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
he'd have lower RBI totals
but wouldn’t be a worse offensive player, necessarily, except for the fact that he played 81 games in Busch as opposed to Citizens’ Bank Park.
No, interaction effects are real. Pretty insignificant, though.
With a team full of high OBP players, adding a high-OBP guy will help more than a high-SLG guy, if they are equally valuable in a neutral setting. And on a low-OBP team, you want high-SLG guys over high-OBP guys.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
But the spirit of my point though is true.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
On low OBP-teams...
it’s unlikely a batter will advance a runner because outs are common. so when players do advance, they better advance a lot of bases (thus, high SLG).
On high-OBP teams, runners will advance solely based on others reaching base repeatedly. you don’t need power, you need to make sure you don’t end the inning, because it’s less likely others will end the inning, either.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Insignificant
because you rarely see a team constructed in a fashion as to deviate from the norm. If there actually existed a team of 8 Cesar Izturis’ in the NL, obviously that team would have a different environment but otherwise it’s not worth the brain power to worry about those situations.
Maybe it's because the White Sox/Rangers play in a band box?
And playing in a band box means you have bad hitters hitting a lot of homeruns?
HR totals do not neccesarily equal true power?
And what the hell is wrong with being third in runs scored? More runs scored = greater chance of winning.
I’m still waiting for why I’m wrong that teams who rely on HRs have trouble winning when they don’t hit them.
Teams that don’t hit homeruns tend to have a tough time scoring all the time.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
Teams that don’t hit homeruns tend to have a tough time scoring all the time.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
Show me a team in modern baseball that was bad at hitting homeruns
yet scored a lot of runs.
I bet you won’t find more than a couple.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Oooooh...Let's play this game
2008: White Sox – 6th in Runs, 13th in Runs Against, W: .546
2007: Brewers – 11th in Runs, 14th in Runs Against, W: .512
2006: White Sox – 3rd in Runs, 17th in Runs Against, w: .556
2005: Rangers – 3rd in Runs, 25th in Runs Against, W: .488
Crazy isn’t it? Pitching and defense have almost as much to do with winning as hitting!
I’d venture to say that all of these teams would probably be a lot worse off if they didn’t score a lot of runs, considering that none of them are in the top 10 in preventing runs by the other team.
Great job with the 2005 Rangers, by the way. If you’re going to cherry pick stats and teams, maybe you should pick a team that has a pitching staff with a pulse…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
A pitching staff with a pulse
and the Cardinals pitching staff is going to be much better because….?
Remember, we have a pitching staff currently comprised of a legit frontline pitcher (Adam Wainwright), a injured, 5-times repaired former Ace (Carpenter), a scrap bin reliever (Wellemeyer) a career/contract year pitcher (Lohse) and Joel Pineiro.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
It's a concern but it has nothing to do with the offense
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
Great point!
Awesome — I love it when people prove my points for me….
- That rotation is still better than the 2005 Rangers rotation by a LARGE MARGIN.
- If our pitching is that bad, doesn’t our run scoring and defense have to be better in order to have a chance to win? Um, yes.
- We’re not improving our rotation with a pitcher who’s going to make $6.5M on a one year deal unless we get lucky like last year — not likely.
- Wellemeyer was a pretty good pitcher last year and the year before, and Carp was a scrap heap Rule 5er at one time, as was Johan Santana.
- You started this conversation by comparing teams that hit a lot of homers and score a lot of runs to their winning percentage. I was merely pointing out that the Rangers would have had a much higher winning percentage if they had pitchers who could get people out. Basically I was telling the whole story, you weren’t.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
What story?
You aren’t even making sense.
JI said “Teams that hit HRs are usually among the run scoring leaders”, which had nothing to do with what I said. I simply said that when teams who rely on HRs don’t hit them, they have trouble scoring runs. They are one-dimensional.
I have yet to see any data proving otherwise, that teams that rely heavily on HRs still find ways to score runs without the longball. Any more or less so than teams that don’t.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Huh?
I have yet to see any data proving otherwise, that teams that rely heavily on HRs still find ways to score runs without the longball. Any more or less so than teams that don’t.
If teams who don’t hit homeruns have just as much trouble scoring runs as homerun-heavy teams who currently aren’t hitting homeruns, doesn’t that make them zero-dimensional?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
You're beginning to see the absurdness of his statements I think
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
how is it absurd to say...
that a low OBP high SLG team that goes through a low SLG period would have trouble scoring runs?
Unless you are assuming that the lost HRs are becoming singles or 2Bs and not flyball outs like I am.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Exactly
that’s how this started and somehow it’s been twisted in providing case studies of players who don’t hit HRs.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
But what is your point?
Given this, which is obvious:
Low OBP, high SLG teams who go through low-SLG phases have trouble scoring runs in those phases.
What is the point?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
That is all he said...
He was just stating that obvious fact and then it got blown up
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
But that's not what his argument was
It was that teams that “rely” on homers struggle to score runs when they don’t hit home runs.
He also made the statement that this Cardinal team is full of low OBP/high SLG players — which it isn’t.
A team full of low OBP/high SLG players could have trouble scoring runs — if they all stopped slugging at the same time.
Not to mention that this has no bearing at all on the topic at hand because we aren’t fielding a lineup of 8 Khalil Greene’s and a pitcher.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
That wasn't the argument at all
the argument was laid out directly above you.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Original statements
I am somewhat concerned about this deal
Not because I don’t think that Greene can succeed, but more so because I am concerned that with his addition, the Cardinals could become very home run dependent to score runs.
by JMedwick on Dec 4, 2008 11:12 AM CST
And htat’s a bad thing because?…
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:16 AM CST
Ask the White Sox
When you don’t hit them, you lose. You become slow and clunky. You’re waiting around all day for the big inning. And with LaRussa, he isn’t going to press the issue to manufacture runs. Over the years, he’s lost his wild streak of doing that and has stayed risk averse to taking the bat out of any hitter’s hands.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:22 AM CST
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Right
the Cardinals could become very home run dependent to score runs.
That’s been the crux of the argument:
- While it may be true some of the time, especially with teams with low OBP players, it is not always true.
- This does not apply to the Cardinals, who had 6 regulars with OBP’s over .349 last year. In fact, the team ranked 4th in all of the major leagues in getting on base and was third in the NL in runs per game
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
As for the White Sox
They were 15th in OBP, 6th in runs scored, and led the league in homers with better than league average pitching, and won their division.
I’m still trying to figure out his point….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Oh, well if they won their division
that solves everything!
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Isn't that how we decide things?
They won 89 games….won their division. Do we give the World Series trophy to the team with the best OBP now? I’m confused. Their division wasn’t great, but they were able to win enough games to win it, right?
Their Pythag W/L? 89-74.
Their actual W/L? 89-74.
So they weren’t lucky either…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think what he was getting at
is that winning your division doesn’t show the quality of team you are, remember the dodgers won their division this year yet would have been 5th in the central
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
for Pete's Sake
They won 89 games!
Any team that finishes above .500 is probably a fairly good team, especially when they play in the better league. They probably would have won a whole lot more games had they played in the National League, because most of the really bad teams last year were in the NL.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I didn't say I agreed with it
but I was point out that winning your division doesn’t mean that much in the long run, the 2006 WS champs weren’t that good of a team either
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
The point was that winning their division
doesn’t tell what type of team they were or what their strengths and flaws were.
Sorting their months by HRs, you’ll see the connection between their runs scored and how reliant they were on HRs:
Month-R—HR-WP%
May 107 28 .552
Sept 118 36 .444
April 134 36 .518
July 134 37 .520
June 164 48 .630
August 154 50 .607
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
That still doesn't explain May does it?
They won 55% of their games in may despite hitting only 28 homers. Then hit 36 homers in September and had a losing record. They also were above .500 in every month except one — and played very well in June and August.
I think that data works against your argument, actually, because they don’t seem to have trouble winning when they don’t hit homers, they just win more when they hit more homers…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
So why not look at some actual numbers?
I ran a quick and dirty correlation on 2008 and obtained the following correlations between each team stat and team runs scored:
BA: .680
HR: .697
OBP: .834
SLG: .903
It’s only for one year, but it looks like OBP and SLG are a stronger correlation than HR for run production.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Which would make sense in the grand scheme of things....
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
HR is one event, and a big piece of SLG, though.
Try all the separate pieces, like HR, 2B, 1B, BB, Ks, etc.
ISO?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
and you shall receive
HR is above
2B: .588
3B: .184
1B: .150
ISO: .697
ISOp: .358
OPS: .944
The dataset I am using doesn’t have Ks.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Who's not making sense?
Dude — you’re making no sense at all.
There’s a reason why teams that hit a lot of homers are near the top in runs scored — they score a lot of runs, even when they don’t score a lot of runs they score enough to win games if their pitching is good enough. Teams that don’t hit as many homers don’t score as many runs. I have yet to see you provide any evidence of teams that consistently rank in the bottom ten in home runs and in the top 10 in runs scored. The Twins are the only team I can think of that might fit that bill.
I think what you’re trying to say, without actually saying it, is that teams that have timely hitting are more consistent at scoring runs that teams that have streaky slugger type hitters.
The truth is that you need a good mix of both, and the Cardinals don’t have a bunch of all for nothing types on the team. They have good OBP guys as well, and our previous SS doesn’t fit into either of those categories.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
i think there is a difference between hitting the HR
and relying on the hr…you need to be able to hit a hr, but you also need to have a clutch double too. If memory serves me I think I heard the Sox relied on the hr a bit much last yr..i could be mistaken though.
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
You need to hit HR's
But you really need to be able to get on base as well. That is the basis of the “Moneyball” era.
The Cardinals have 3 good sluggers who also happen to get on base pretty well (Pujols, Ludwick, Glaus), another one who slugs better than .500 and is learning to take better AB’s to get on base more (Ankiel), and a couple other complimentary players that you’re not sure about OBP with yet (Schumaker, Mather, Molina).
I don’t see how replacing Izturis with Greene makes us a worse offensive ballclub. That just doesn’t compute at all. They were 3rd in the NL in scoring last season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Well, last year the Sox weren't so much waiting for the big inning
as they were hitting like .200.
He represents a potentially large marginal power upgrade over Izturis, and power manifests itself in ways other than HRs – such as doubles.
True.
As is shown through his outstanding 2007, when Greene hit 44 doubles in addition to 27 home runs.
The question is, if Greene is more the player from 2008 (15 doubles and 10 home runs) or 2006 (26 doubles and 15 home runs) than the 2007 version, then Greene has little to offer the Cards offensively other than lots of outs…
Interesting analysis made at BtB
Talking about Greene before the rumors started coming out. Kinda gets at the argument here, with some statistical analysis.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
by scoot on Dec 4, 2008 1:39 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
this quote from the article struck me as interesting
Change has never sat well with him.
I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.
It's his sciatica
those pesky coins cause him to constantly shift from one cheek to the next.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
How has Greene's hand healed?
He hasn’t played since he broke it punching a metal cabinet. I’m sure the doctors will look at this and make him do strength tests.
mlb.com reports...
….that the Cards are giving up Mark Worrell and a player to be named later. Yea!
Couldn't find a better place to pitch
I guess he’s a little redundant with Meredith, but nobody throws it exactly like Worrell. He should get a long look there.
by Merry CRasmus on Dec 4, 2008 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
can you link where it says Worrell was involved
I couldn’t find it.
In exchange, two industry sources said, the Padres would receive right-handed reliever Mark Worrell and a player to be named later.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081203&content_id=3701496&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Trading Worrell
and a player to be named later for a decent/good chance of having a SS that can hit 15-20 Hrs and have 50+ RBI…………Great trade MO!!!!
As long as he’s healthy I think Greene could become the steal of the off season for the Cards. Plus the guy will be playing for a contract next season. I expect some good numbers. Hopefully McRae/Pujols can fix his approach.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
+1
this move reeks of the same success as Glaus for Rolen and Freese for Edmonds.
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 4, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
that's presumptuous
particularly in light of the fact that we don’t yet know the identity of the 2nd player.
You know, with it being a PTBNL
I wonder if it is Jamie Garcia.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
the PTBNL has to be named within 6 months
will Jaime be ready to pitch by then?
It would be worth the risk on the part of the Padres, but the FO wouldn’t be that crazy, would they?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
I don't think you can trade a player on that is on the DL, right?
and I would assume he’d probably still be on the DL since he’s recovering from TJ surgery.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
Is it general consensus amongst people here that the Glaus trade was a win?
With fielding and a league adjustment, he and Rolen come out pretty darn even this year, even with Rolen missing time.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Just the fact that he played more than 130 games was a win in itself
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
What won't show up in your stats and adjustments
is the fued between Rolen and LaRussa and the effect it probably would have had on Rolen’s performance and possibly his playing time. That was a major issue that was eliminated by the trade. So, yes the trade was a win.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
I think the most important criterion
for judging the trade is what else could we have gotten? Irrespective of their individual performances and comparisons, I think MO got the best return he could possibly have gotten give that the two little babies made a trade inevitable.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
i dont think ...
that there is any possible way that any argument you could possibly make could come close to convincing anyone on the face of the planet that the glaus rolen trade wasn’t a decisive victory for the cardinals
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 5, 2008 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
I haven't seen hyberpole this bold in a million Pluto years.
Rolen was, by many defensive metrics, +20 runs in the field this year and had to hit against more difficult pitching. He and Glaus were similarly valuable, about 4 WAR. 4 WAR on the free agent market costs in the neighborhood of $18MM. So at $11MM, both guys were solid deals. And thus, having either one locked up for an extra year at $11MM is a good deal.
Although, it’s a good point that Rolen pretty much had to be shipped out and might have performed worse with the Cards. Given that, the Cards did pretty darn well.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
plus
the depth in the cards minors at third base is staggering (Freese-ready for MLB, Craig-1-2 years away, Wallace-0-1.5 years away), so Rolen would be blocking quality prospects for longer than glaus, if they are blocked this coming year
"Little League Baseball is a very good thing because it keeps parents off the streets." -Yogi Berra
really?
Does +13 at 3B (by dewan’s +/-) really translate to 20 runs?
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
also
rolen was ranked #24 and glaus was ranked #3 in MLB in making outs on bunt attempts. Works out to about 4 additional plays made for glaus on bunts, so that seriously cuts into Rolen’s advantage (cuts it from 6 plays [+13 minus +7] to about 2 additional plays made). Glaus was also +1 at 1B, so if you include that rolen only made one play more than Glaus in 2008.
I just don’t see how those 1-2 plays are significant enough to overcome the huge playing time difference (77 PA’s, 265.3 innings on defense) and 17 point OPS+ differential. What am I missing?
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
My bad, I was exaggerating.
Combined zone ratings had Rolen at +12 runs last year. Point still stands that Glaus was only 5 runs better overall.
13 plays is about 10 runs.
But UZR is more bearish than even Dewan, at +5 runs in 2008 for Rolen. Glaus is at +3, the best of his career.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Thanks for that link
and it depends on the parameters of the ptbnl, but it looks like a great deal.
as long as its still a
relief pitcher nothing can go wrong
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 4, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
The important thing is that
Kelvin is gone….gone forever
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 4, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
my only regret is that he is in the AL now
so we won’t get to be on the winning end of facing him, for once.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Inter-league play, my friend!
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
I really really really....
would not anticipate him being in the major leagues anyhow
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 5, 2008 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
he may be resigned as FA in the future
don’t get ahead of yourself there.
we can hope though, right?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
indeed...
it was a hopeful statement
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 5, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
eh, is it wrong that i'm apathetic about this move?
it’s a pretty typical Cardinals move. it’s a low risk somewhat high rewards move. as long as they only gave up Worrell & a PTBNL i’m fine with it. what’s the worst that could happen? he gets hurt again & were stuck with a Mini Me/Boog SS combo? hell we had that a lot last year.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
he certaiinly isn't Rafael Furcal or Yunel Escobar...
but he also doesn’t cost $50 million or Ryan Ludwick. The cards could have done a lot worse and they are basically getting Greene for nothing. His career road ops was .808 and he’s a career .270 hitter on the road. Even if he’s a bust, I certainly wouldn’t pile any blame upon Mozielak for making this move.
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 4, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
per your user name
the ghost is located in Huntsville, AL
I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.
Oh my...
he’s teaching. Before Kelvin Jimenez came along, he was my most hated cardinal relief pitcher of all-time. Jeff Gorden of the Post used to make fun of him all the time, thus the user name. As for the avatar…well, monty burns was just way cooler. Maybe the user name should’ve been The Ghost of Monty Burns
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 4, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
Greene's numbers at Busch
Here is what he did in the few at bats he has had at Busch.
23 ab 2 Hrs 2 RBI.
Not much to go by I know…but he does have 2 dingers in the few games he has played there.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
Looks like Worrell...
and a player to be named. Great deal, potentially, for us. Worrell certainly wasn’t in our plans.
It's like evesdropping...
They’re talking about us like we can’t hear them:
http://www.gaslampball.com/2008/12/4/679620/san-diego-padres-trade-sho
And I don’t know about the rest of you, but I neither dwell in the Ozarks nor do I drive an El Camino (I may be a yahoo, though)…that’s not really our stereotype, is it?
No, it's not
Although there’s something to be said for living in the Ozarks AND driving an El Camino — it’s such beautiful country down there wouldn’t you want to be able to park on a cliff and sit in the back with your six pack of InBev Budweisers on a late summer day?
You know you’ve made a good move when 50% of the fanbase is upset that he was traded for “nothing”.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Not a bad move for the Padres, though.
They’re not competing in 2009, so Greene is a waste of assets. This is one of those non-symmetrical trades.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
It is a good deal for them
I think they know they aren’t competing next year, but if he wasn’t valuable at all, there would be people on the boards celebrating that he was gone — that isn’t the case. If the Cardinals were to deal Joel Piniero and his 2009 salary for a bag of baseballs and chewing gum VEB might explode with joy…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think Worrell can have value, as well
he’ll never be great and he’ll always have a massive platoon split, but he strikes me as the kind of guy who could really be solid against righties, though completely ineffectual vs. lefties. The way teams use pens now, Worrell can have 6 years of value w/ the Pads.
Chad Bradford type pitcher then?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I think we just got more value out of Worrell than anyone else will
I never saw him pitch in the minors, but I think I saw all four of his MLB appearances. He didn’t show anything that would cause a MLB RH hitter a problem. Unlike most sidearm/submarine guys he doesn’t really attack from the third base side that much and his pitches didn’t have much action. I don’t think you can really conclude anything from his tiny MLB sample, but a .462 BAA vs. RH batters is not a good start.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
If you never saw him pitch in the minors, but you can see his numbers,
how are you going to value 5.2 ML innings over that? Let’s get rid of Garcia, Parisi, Mortensen, Todd, and everyone else who wasn’t great on their debut to a higher level, we’ll totally have a roster left.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
I am not basing my opinion
on his numbers. I am basing it on watching hime pitch. Still haven’t seen Mortensen or Todd, but at least Garcia and Parisi showed something to like in spite of the fact they were both likely pitching hurt.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
i lived in San Diego
They love thier Padre so much; that if you left 2 tickets on your dashboard when you came back you would have 4 tickets.
interesting quote:
“Ozzie would have been worthless offensively if it wasn’t for the artificial turf,”
Never thought about that. Wonder if there is any truth to it? Was SD’s ballpark a grass field in that time period?
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
I really don't buy that -- and yes, San Diego did play on grass at that time.
Offensively, he was atrocious in San Diego, but developed himself as a switch hitting contact guy with the Cardinals — who valued great defense and speed over all else in the 1980’s. He was never a good hitter, but he was serviceable for being one of the best three defensive short stops ever. I don’t see how the turf would have helped a guy who hit the ball on the ground a lot — sure, he can run faster on turf, but the ball gets to fielder a lot quicker too.
I don’t know if you could ever quantify it statistically though.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
lot more doubles into the gaps back then
and if it gets to fielders faster, it gets by them as well. Also, I anecdotally remember that infield hits on balls that bounce a foot in front of home plate and then bounce 40 feet straight up (or just make it over the 3B’s head) were pretty common too, IIRC.
No idea how you’d figure it out, though.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
I anecdotally remember that infield hits on balls that bounce a foot in front of home plate and then bounce 40 feet straight up (or just make it over the 3B’s head) were pretty common too, IIRC.
The http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltimore_Chop is going to make a comeback, I know it!
I think the doubles in the gaps
had as much to do with the vast expanse of outfield at Busch back then, which is why having guys like McGee in the outfield was so important — they could get to and cut off a lot of balls that opponents couldn’t. I’m sure that the turf helped, but I don’t think it helped his walk rate, which was always fairly decent, and his ability to make solid contact, which he never did well in San Diego. He just became a better player as a Cardinal, turf or not.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Even before Petco, SD has never been a hitter's paradise
Ozzie had a career split of .279/.362/.354/.717 at Busch and hit .221/.290/.266/.556 in SD. His overall road numbers were .260/.329/.325/.654. Overall numbers on turf were .273/.352/.344/.696 and on grass .244/.313/.304/.617. Probably a good portion of he just got better in StL and a lighter portion of its hard to hit in SD. Turf certainly helped some, but not nearly enough to explain the difference.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I thought their old park (Qualcomm) was a neutral/slight hitters park?
Do you have any data for that?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Qualcomm was two different parks
It used to be open in the outfield and then they enclosed the entire thing so they could attract SuperBowls. I figure that’s got to change the way the park played.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
For a guy who never hit more than 6 homers in a season
He had a number career OPS+ of 87 and topped 100 four different times — I think that’s pretty impressive because he never slugged higher than .383
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
BR.com
gives you grass/artificial splits:
Grass: .244/.313/.304/.617
Turf: .273/.352/.344/.696
Now, there are things to consider. Firstly, the decline of his career was played on grass at Busch Stadium. Second, well…that’s all I had.
The interesting thing that may not be that important but:
BABIP
Grass: .258
Truf: .286 (+28)
BA
Grass: .244
Turf: .273 (+29)
OOOOHHHHH, spooky!
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
heh.
it almost seems like it’s harder to play defense on turf. But there’s no anecodotal evidence for that, ya?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Probably not
But I think it’s safe to say that you have a lot less margin for error on turf defensively.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
but no bad hops.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
Interesting.
Of course, there’s selective sampling there.
And we can’t have it both ways: either turf helps fielders or it hurts them. You can’t dock Ozzie’s glove because he’s getting good bounces on turf and also dock him for having a higher BABIP on turf because extra balls get through the infield. Which is it? Is it easier to field on turf or harder?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I would say
it is easier to actually field the ball on turf, but harder to get to it because it gets through so fast. So, maybe reduced range, but increased fielding percentage? The range factor is probably more important.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I don't either
The Ozarks aren’t really that close to St. Louis anyway.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 4, 2008 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
This
is the most hilarious bunch of useless crap I’ve ever seen.
We have inherited a robot. Maybe “the Machine” can fix him.
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Dec 4, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Khalilbot
The straight-haired Spicoli… Be aware cards fans!!! When riding the Metro to Busch, pay attention for his clones…they are lurking among us!!!
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Dec 4, 2008 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
heh
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Sign On San Diego says the Pads are kicking at least $1 mil
According to one club official, the commissioner’s office may need to approve the deal, which likely means that the Padres could be offsetting Greene’s salary by at least $1 million.Greene for $5.5 million or less, then?
That makes the deal better
and also adds credence to the rumors that Mozeliak has stolen Towers’ soul.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
that would be amazing.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
I dub thee
the megalothread
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 4:55 PM EST reply actions
This page is sooo big.
And half of it is a war between the two antagonists of VEB.
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Dec 4, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
spare me
I refuse to read this thread, for it is gargantuan. who are these antagonists you speak of… or are they really protagonists?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Hardcore and fourstick back and forth about homeruns, misinterpretations, etc.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
Its really just a violent thread in general
Azru is getting in word wars with people now as well…ooooh my goodness, what have you done Mo? You’ve thrown VEB. into a state of civil war
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Dec 4, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
sometimes its better to just...
appreciate the fact that your GM just flat out stole a player that may or may not significantly improve your club, than to try to microanalyze the move.
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 4, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
If only everyone agreed that Greene was a steal.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
it seems to me he was a bit of a steal
watch him hit like 18 home runs in ’09
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
I'm surprised at the reaction
There’s a whole group of people here who are pining for Brandon Wood who’s only real asset is his power. He strikes out a ton and plays above average defense. Granted he’s obviously cheaper in dollars but would be much more expensive in prospects but other than that, they’re the same player except Greene actually played pretty well at some point in his career where Wood hasn’t in the somewhat limited amount of time he’s gotten.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
Wood also has 6 years to go
while Greene has 1 w/ his team. Wood is what, 23? Greene is 29. To suggest that they’re basically the same is short-sighted.
Obviously there's a difference in their age and experience
I thought that was obvious.
But when you look at their skill sets, they’re very similar players except Greene has actually succeeded at the major league level where Wood has come far from it. Did I not say that before? And when you then look at what it would cost to get Wood (and is he even available?), I think the differences start to even themselves out.
But what was I thinking by demeaning the amazing Brandon Wood? Sorry, I should have known better. He’s practically deified around these parts.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
well
I didn’t even know who he was
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 5, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Don't say that around here.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
heh
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 5, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
That's been my point all along
Even if he sucks next year, it was still a great gamble because we didn’t give up anything for him and he doesn’t tie us down long term. Now if they sign him to an extension that’s a whole different story….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Now, for the next installment of debate
Is he a 7th hitter, or a 2 hitter?
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Dec 4, 2008 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
dare i say...
9th?
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 4, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
As long as we find Kennedy's Replacement.
Crosses fingers please oooh please be a good player with a high OBP to hit in front of Albert, pleeeease.
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Dec 4, 2008 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
it will be interesting to see if AK will be traded
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
I like that idea
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
I think he's a 6 or 7 hole hitter
I depends on who is in the lineup, but he certainly shouldn’t be hitting in the 2 hole with OBP’s like that. I’d like to see Glaus hitting second with Ankiel hitting 5th and Greene 6th.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Well it had been kinda quiet around here lately
Maybe a civil war will kickstart some more discussion and this gargantuan thread will just restore the balance to the mean.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 4, 2008 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not trying to be an antagonist
I’m just trying to get him to admit that this was a good move for the club….which I think he finally did by saying that he thought it was a good move all along, lol.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
It was quite a fun conversation to try to follow
I say try because I was lost near the beginning.
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Dec 4, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Ha-ha.. he said megalothread
I know I’m exhausted… took me all afternoon to read… Work must suffer the consequences though…
It's not what you do, It's who you do...
I said it was a good move
long before you asked me to.
You were the one creating positions no one was trying to put forward and then arguing against them.
And if they are getting him for $4.5 M, that’s a great deal. That’s Eckstein money.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
I love this deal at $4.5 mil
Didn’t we give them $2mil last year to take Edmonds. Anyway; I approve of Mo dealing with the Padres.
It's insanely good
like “Kevin Towers needs his head checked” good.
Unless of course Spicoli hasn’t healed from punching a metal cabinet.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 9:04 PM EST up reply actions
No, you didn't
I don’t need revisionist history from you now…
Your original point was that this wasn’t a good move for the ballclub and that they should be looking for a long term solution. I simply said that this isn’t hurting the club from looking for a long term solution and that this is a good deal that fills a need for 2009. I’m not going to go back and quote all your posts, but don’t make me out to be the bad guy when I was just refuting your point with evidence. That’s what we do here.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
That's false
but this has gone on long enough.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 5, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just shocked that no one is
complaining about the fact that its not Ben Zobrist…..or did I just open up a whole new can of worms?
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 4, 2008 5:32 PM EST reply actions
I won't complain about that
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions
Can Zobrist Play 2nd?
Kennedy for Zobrist (like that will happen)
by bearcatcardfan on Dec 4, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
Depends on your definition of "play".
If you mean play well, no. Plus Zobrist’s power is a fluke.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 4, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
+1
At worst, Zobrist is very intriguing.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 4, 2008 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
Miles can't play anything...
…Zobrist wouldn’t be worse than Miles, right?
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 4, 2008 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
I thought of it
I was one of the Zob supporters, but I mourned in privacy…
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 4, 2008 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
is it too early to tell what kind of elias ranking greene will get
i’m not sure how many seasons they go back, but i gotta think he has a shot of being a type b if he has a good season this year…that way this time next season we can be debating why MO didn’t offer him arbitration
this deal is fantastic methinks
I believe they go back three years
If he has a career average year I would think he’d be type B…if he repeats his 2007 performance he could sneak into the Type A category, although I think it’s a long shot that it happens.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
so it's only 2 years then
So he’s going to have to be really good in 2008 to be even Type B…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
and given that PA, BA and OBP
are 3 of the categories he’ll be judged on, it’s going to be almost impossible for him.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
we had to find someone
to combat the rawkness of Bronson Arroyo… unless Greene ain’t really much of a rocker. I could be wrong
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 5:50 PM EST reply actions
i bet there are a number of teams kicking themselves
i gotta think if other teams had known this is all we were giving up for greene, they would have jumped into the bidding war
Score a big one for MO
+1
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
which is why he gets upset when teams leak info -- like the Rockies.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Makes you wonder what the Orioles offered.
MO definitely took advantage of a team looking to dump salary quickly. I think this is a good signing, MO has been very underrated so far. Last year the Glaus trade and the Lohse signing were 2 of the best transactions made.
The trade so far:
Considering what a pain Towers has been in the trade market this year, I think MO really handled this one well. There was absolutely none of the annoying leaking about every detail that has been happening with other trades. He moves in, makes the deal, happens to move gisgruntled Worrel, and he gets 1-2M back. Awesome deal.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Khalil...
Welcome to St. Louis. We like baseball.
A few things you should know:
1. Play hard and get your uniform dirty (we like that).
2. Baseball columnists in this town aren’t worth a dump except Goold and possibly Hummel.
3. Bernie is…well, I’m sure he’ll tell you.
4. Hadley (radio guy) = biggest Homer since Simpson.
5. Don’t mind the dirt on the animals at the museum under the Arch
6. The New Madrid fault – if it goes, so do we.
7. The river floods.
8. No one really knows what INBEV stands for.
9. The stadium is nice, but the landscaping sucks.
10. We respect the game – and we expect you to as well.
So, Khalil, welcome to our fair city. We’re glad you’re here.
P.S.: The Cubs…we’re not on the best of terms.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
also
6-4-3’s are nice. We like those.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
You are correct sir
But right now, we’re missing 1/3 of that equation.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
after this deal
I wouldn’t mind keeping Kennedy and platoon him with Miles
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 5, 2008 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
if we sign an above average starter
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 5, 2008 1:08 AM EST up reply actions
Few comments
1. Get tips from Steve Kline on cap hygiene.
6. You’re used to San Andreas so don’t worry about New Madrid.
7. I am sure you’d trade a flooded basement for a burned down house.
9. Instead of weeds and Yucca plants, you will be seeing some real vegetation.
10. Welcome to baseball heaven. You don’t have to worry about fans bolting out the eight inning just to sit in traffic on the 5 freeway. (Yes, I did say “the 5 freeway” and not I-5).
BTW, bukowski, great list.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Two more.
11. Mike Shannon isn’t drunk – we think.
12. Provel cheese – it is what it is, but no one really knows what it is.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
ummm
shannon is definitely drunk…me an my buds took a tour of busch…when we were in the radio booth, the tour guide showed us shannon’s cooler…it was packed with beer, and the team wasn’t even in town
Above all
please, please, please don’t smile or forget your sunglasses. The last guy that did that…well, it wasn’t pretty.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 8:46 PM EST up reply actions
data to support comment above
The numbers were cut off if I posted it there, so I’m going to post the table here and then refer to it with a link.
From B-R:
2008 RBI Opportunities, Izturis vs Greene
Baserunner positions when batting
Name PA RBI @3,lt 2 out RBI 1B 2B 3B
Khalil 423 35 31 13 131 70 43
Cesar 454 24 28 13 121 83 48
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
What amazes me is that Greene
missed over two months of game action and yet only had 30 fewer plate appearances than Izturis.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
That's because
The Padres didn’t have Aaron “Fievel” Miles.
I have discovered in twenty years of moving around a ball park, that the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats. ~Bill Veeck
From 2004-2007
Greene averaged about a .270 EqA, and was 48 according to UZR. That’s really a terrific player at SS, and it gets better. None of that takes into account his extreme flyballs tendencies, which kill him at Petco. Neither does his Marcel or whatever. Over those years he had over a .280 EqA away from that park, and he carries a career away tOPS of 118, which is very drastic.
Essentially if you think he’s going to be anything less than an average SS next year, you are putting an insane amount of stock in his 200 road PA, which were horrid and couldn’t carry his home numbers, which were about the same as they always are.
There’s not a whole lot to dislike here, unless, like I said, you think 200 PA mean much much more than 1200 previous.
well, it does mean more.
The fact that it was the LAST 200 PA makes it very scary. He’s a high risk to be a guy with an undiagnosed injury of some kind (like AK’s knee in ’07).
OTOH as you can tell by my other posts in this thread, I am ecstatic about this deal. I’m just praying that the people with access to more information than we have did their jobs ;)
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
It's Great to See Spicoli with the Birds on the Bat
With Jeff Spicoli aka Khalil Greene taking his Fast Times at Ridgemont High routine to STL we should forget about the metrics and enjoy the quotes!
Example;
Brad Hamilton: Why don’t you get a job Spicoli?
Jeff Spicoli: What for?
Brad Hamilton: You need money.
Jeff Spicoli: All I need are some tasty waves, a cool buzz, and I’m fine.
Jeff Spicoli: [driving and stoned] People on ’ludes should not drive.
[after Spicoli wrecks Jefferson’s car]
Jefferson’s Brother: My brother’s gonna kill us! He’s gonna kill us! He’s gonna kill you and he’s gonna kill me, he’s gonna kill us!
Jeff Spicoli: Hey man, just be glad I had fast reflexes!
Jefferson’s Brother: My brother’s gonna shit!
Jeff Spicoli: Make up your mind, dude, is he gonna shit or is he gonna kill us?
Jefferson’s Brother: First he’s gonna shit, then he’s gonna kill us!
Jeff Spicoli: Relax, all right? My old man is a television repairman, he’s got this ultimate set of tools. I can fix it.
PTBNL...
… why name him later?
unless he’s one of our draft picks from last year, who can’t be traded until June. do we all still like the trade if the PTBNL is one of our top picks from last year?
A friend ran into this in the comments section of some (presumably SABR) site:
5. Scott Brosius, to Yankees, World Series MVP
4. Brett Butler, to Cleveland, top-flight leadoff hitter for Indians (more steals, 47, than strikeouts, 42, in one season)
3. Jay Bell, to Pittsburgh, two NLCS, Gold Glove
2. Jesse Orosco, to Mets, 102 of 144 career saves came in five-season span with Mets
1. Moises Alou, to Montreal, MVP candidate in 1994 before strike.
If that’s anything close to a who’s-who of PTBNLs I think there’s even less reason to worry.
According to rotowire
it is someone of much higher stature than Mark Worrell.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 5, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
Ouch
I was hoping it was the other way around. An article in today’s PD said there was a list the two teams had agreed on. Wonder how long before rumors spread about who’s on the list?
by ArkansasTravs on Dec 5, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
do you ever hear about the unchosen guys not on those lists?
I think the team would have very good reason to not reveal to much of anyone who is on those lists.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
so who can it be?
apparently two of the three possible candidates are pitchers, and none were on the roster at the end of the year. i’m really stumped: we don’t have very many pitching prospects with higher regard than Worrell who weren’t on the roster. Garcia can’t be traded b/c he’s injured, right? or does that only apply to those on the ML roster? who else? Salas?
as for the position player, i imagine it’s somebody like Jay.
With it being PTBNL
I wonder if it is so that Garcia can have 6 months to heal and see if the surgery took.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 5, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe Towers
meant more someone valued more highly by the Cardinals. That could be a pretty long list….
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
holy crap
how has this thread not ripped a whole in the time space continuum?
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
This page is so ridiculously slow
I hope it is closed soon so that I don’t have to keep coming back and waste half an hour just to read the new stuff.
by blitzkrieger83 on Dec 5, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
I’ve said before that long threads don’t seem slow to me, but this one definitely is.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
Make a browser change...
You all need to the Google Chrome browser — I don’t have any problems sifting through 1000 comment threads with it because it loads everything so quickly.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
unless of course, you have a mac
and then it’s almost too imaginary for this place
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
firefox is running fast as ever here
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
you know
that may be it. I have to use IE at work, but use firefox at home. Obviously this thread was going crazy while I was at work.
Now that it’s kind of dead, it’s plenty fast on either, but when there were 5-6 posts a minute it was awful in IE.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
holy mother of crap i suck
i spelled hole wrong
kill me now
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Jeez, I'm away from VEB for a week and a half and all hell breaks loose
I hope for this scenario in 2009…
[Khalil Greene has a pizza delivered to the batting cage]
Tony LaRussa: Am I hallucinating here? Just what in the hell do you think you’re doing?
Khalil Greene: Learning about plate discipline, and having some food.
by mattybobo on Dec 5, 2008 7:21 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
+1
Just had to do it ;)
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 9, 2008 8:44 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
you people act like this is a pain to open
by bearcatcardfan on Dec 9, 2008 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
I'm lost
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 9, 2008 8:50 PM EST up reply actions
What are we talking about?
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 9, 2008 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
Are we talking about
difficult this page gets
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 9, 2008 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
when there are too many comments?
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 9, 2008 8:52 PM EST up reply actions
Is that what we are talking about?
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 9, 2008 8:52 PM EST up reply actions
I'm gonna guess that it is....
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 9, 2008 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
damn thre should be a comma after the first yes
by bearcatcardfan on Dec 9, 2008 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
I am one of those people.
Chuck Norris bows to no man...but he does bow to The Mang.
by miniboscorino on Dec 10, 2008 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
but its just so damn fun
Chuck Norris bows to no man...but he does bow to The Mang.
by miniboscorino on Dec 10, 2008 8:34 PM EST up reply actions
to post a bunch of
useless comments.
Chuck Norris bows to no man...but he does bow to The Mang.
by miniboscorino on Dec 10, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
id be interested to see if it gets 1,000 posts
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Dec 11, 2008 1:48 AM EST up reply actions
why don't people do things the easy way:
(a) open two browser
(b) find your way to VEB
© if a post has a buttload of comments in it then you should click on it and
(d) use the other browser to read other stuff on VEB until the previous post has finished loading
Yes, that was my contribution to VEB for today, and you are all welcome.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
tabs work well for this
but play havoc with actually getting work done, at work.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
I have the overwhelming urge to post a bunch of "+1's" in this thread...must fight it
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
-1.
Do it, wuss.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Dec 10, 2008 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd
seriously, has anyone posted anything more rec-worthy today? alright, alright…has anyone posted anything more rec-worthy in the last five minutes?
and to all those punctuation nazis: I really don’t care if I used that hyphen in the way it was meant to be (but I would like to know if I used the colon correctly…screw it, I don’t care about my colons either)
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
whats the point now?
We would just be back to zero, id have to +2 or something
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Dec 11, 2008 1:50 AM EST up reply actions
and that would be just crazy
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Dec 11, 2008 1:52 AM EST up reply actions
On a more serious note
Greene’s Fangraphs UZR/150 is -9.3, -5.5, +6.4, -6.4, -0.5, -9.7 for his career (-3.3 on average) but
CHONE (Totalzone + ZR + RZR + Fan Scouting Report?) has him at a predicted +5 and plus/minus liked him too. Hrm. Maybe it’s a Stats/BIS thing on UZR? I guess we’ll see!
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Have you criticized Hanley Ramirez on Twitter? Your name may be on his bat!
- U.S. senator cries foul over Nationals plans to take back park from Phillies fans
- Photo: Comerica Park readies itself for Hockeytown
- Podcast: Dirk Hayhurst talks about Italy, the reality of the big leagues and his new book
- Dennis ‘Oil Can’ Boyd claims he used cocaine before a majority of his games
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
