Cards Closing in on Khalil Greene? (Updated: Yes, and they got him.)
by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ on Dec 4, 2008 12:03 AM EST
782 comments
[Update - azruavatar - 6:47am]
[/end update]
http://blogs.nypost.com/sports/st/archives/2008/12/khalil_greene_o.html
After the Looper fiasco, I was looking forward to Rafael Furcal at short. Not sure what I think about this yet...
Maybe we buy low on him and get a solid defender with decent pop and a cool name for pennies on the dollar? I'd be pretty happy with that. I'm definitely glad it's not 2/$18 mil for Edgar Renteria. The optimist in me says that a vacation from Petco would do KG right, but I haven't seen/am too busy right now to look for his home/road splits. Depending on what it cost, I think this could be good news.
So who plays second now? A bat presumably, but which one? There's not a lot out there on the market. Maybe Mo trades for Uggla? Maybe the Ludwick-Kelly Johnson fantasy? I'm definitely at a loss for 2B.
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I would rather have Felipe Lopez
He is set to make $6.5M this year. We shouldn’t pay over $3M for his services. He was actually worse last year than Cesar Izturis. A classic buy low by Mo, but I hope that we are paying low.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Dec 4, 2008 12:08 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
He (Greene) was comically bad last year...
but it was a fluky year for him, at least offensively. In every offensive category, his numbers were the lowest he has ever posted, including his rookie season. He’s not (that) old—29—so I think it’s a safe bet to assume those numbers will go up, particularly in a non-Petco stadium. Also, it’s $6.5 mil next year, but only for one year.
"The Mollusk" makes me want to rail LSD crystals off my friends' sternum. Rage."
by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ on Dec 4, 2008 12:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I meant to say "not" including his rookie season
"The Mollusk" makes me want to rail LSD crystals off my friends' sternum. Rage."
by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ on Dec 4, 2008 12:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
greene
He might have been worse than Izturis at the plate last year but over the course of his career Greene has been the better hitter. Greene is also an above average defender. Lopez is an awful defender who is looking for a multi year deal. Greene may cost us 6.5 million this year as a low risk stop gap at short for 1 season. If Greene doesn’t bounce back then he is gone. If you sign Lopez to 2-3 years at 4+ million per than it is by far a riskier move. This is a smart move- fill a hole on the team and remain competitive without losing payroll flexibility this year or in the future.
by block writer on Dec 4, 2008 12:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that it is likely that he will have a big year
He definitely had a fluky year last year, his OPS was about 150 points below his average from before 08. He also will be moving away from Petco which will certainly help his stat. When you include the fact that he would also be hitting in a lineup filled with guys who get on base like the Cards, he should certianly have a very good year.
by vivaelpujols on Dec 4, 2008 1:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Greene is a great low risk / high reward guy
I know he was awful last year, but before then Petco was masking much of his hitting ability. He could be a minor star.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
plus
it’s a contract year. i think i can be mildly optimistic without being completely foolish. His ops in his worst year ever was like 3 pts less than izturus and he’s a plus defender, so worst case the cards have something like izturus. Likely case, he improves on that ops and there’s a marginal SS improvement over last year, even if it’s not 2007 vintage Greene.
by spencegrif on Dec 4, 2008 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's a good point
contract years always bring out the best in players.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on Dec 4, 2008 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not always
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lopez’s career AVG/OBP/SLG is .262/.330/.395 (89 OPS+).
The new predicted batting average on balls hit into play method at http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/ cites Lopez as one of the luckiest hitters of 2008.
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/10/preliminary-2008-total-value-estimates.html marks him as a -3.8 fielder at 2B for 2008 as a National (chose WAS because he had three times as many innings there), and 2B is a less defensively demanding position than SS.
I would be personally disappointed if Lopez even displaced Kennedy – especially if it’s 2+ years.
by astrostl on Dec 5, 2008 12:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They mentioned...
2 relief pitching prospects. Hopefully neither of those are named Perez or Motte. I think if either one of those are involved, the Padres will have to eat some salary and makes the move to not offer arbitration to Springer a HUGE mistake.
by Jumsy on Dec 4, 2008 12:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It better be Worrell
That guy deserves his shot and the Cardinals seem hellbent on not giving it to him.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be fine with Worrell going in this deal.
I wasn’t overly impressed with him the first go ’round.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 1:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well he is one of our better hitting
pitchers
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song:
by gocards62 on Dec 4, 2008 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what you've seen.....
Out of him to make you think he’d be anything better than the last arm in the bullpen, but I don’t agree. A funky delivery in and of itself isn’t enough to succeed at this level.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 4, 2008 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dude ... it's not the arm,
it’s the 519 career OPS+ that has us all bedazzled!
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 4, 2008 9:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Per erik
The numbers present a very strong case for Worrell, look no further than his MLE-57.7 innings, K/9 10.77, BB/9 4.68, .233 batting average against, 3.19 FIP. If that doesn’t do it for you, 25.6% of the batters he faced went down swinging, the third highest rate in the PCL for relievers, behind only Jason Motte and Jason Bulger. I mean, with those kinds of results, one would think we’d be talking about him in the same breath as Motte and Perez.
But, since you don’t like player who aren’t at the MLB level, you wouldn’t know this.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't like players not at the MLB level?
Won’t argue with you if you are going to exaggerate and make stuff up.
I’m not the only one that hasn’t been impressed by Worrell, AAA numbers or not. The list of players of that put up good numbers in the minors only to do NOTHING at the MLB numbers isn’t a short one.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 4, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That 2 week audition
sure was disastrous for him at the MLB level.
And you won’t argue it because it is true. You’ve spoke ill of every prospect we’ve had over the last year UNTIL they show up at the MLB level and do exactly what people expected them to do. Then you’re a convert.
When over a period of time you prove this characterization wrong, I’ll believe you.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry about that....
Worrell and Samuel would be a nice haul for the Pads, and we can certainly spare some righty relievers.
by mateodh on Dec 4, 2008 12:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd bet money...
That Perdomo is in the deal. Makes sense as to why he was left of the 40 man. Maybe Mo has had this in the works for a couple weeks.
by RayMonD! on Dec 4, 2008 12:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I could see Puppy Kicker go since he is out of options
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 4, 2008 12:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well, if the report is true that it's 2 "prospects"
then it won’t be Thompson. Plus, we may need him to fill out the rotation next year………….
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 1:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes, yes we do.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Dec 4, 2008 2:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Man, he could do anything
What is Greene going to do? He could be really awesome or really bad.
The Bad, Ugly, Awful
1) Greene was an abomination last year offensively. Worse than Izturis.
2) Greene costs $6.5 million and prospects.
The Rays of Hope
1) Greene has a career road OPS of .802. That’s a high number for a SS.
2) Greene was steady as hell from 2004-2007, when he posted a .727-.795 OPS every year.
3) Greene’s defensive reputation is good, though his 2008 stats put him closer to average. His +/- seems to drop every year, unfortunately. His RZR is middle-of-the-pack consistently.
Which Greene will we see? That’s the question.
by mojowo11 on Dec 4, 2008 1:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
as long as he hits better than Izturis
and he keeps up the good defense, I kinda like this move (well, only if we pick up a good starter)
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 1:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
although
I’ll make up my mind when I hear which pitchers we traded
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 1:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
While that's true
That was his worst season in the big leagues, by far, while 2008’s numbers are probably as good as Izturis can do over a full season. I have much more faith in Greene to bounce back in his walk year than I have faith in Izturis to do much of anything next season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 9:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not really, see below
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he'll be worse than iztoo next year though
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Our next Bi-polar Betty?
I agree with you. Could go either way. I do think that 2004-2007 Greene makes this move potentially very high reward. Just to put another positive spin on it, his power numbers stack up as the best we’ve ever had at this position. Looking past his 27 HR season in 07’…..In 04’ to 06’ he hit 15 HR’s each year. The only Cardinal SS’s that ever hit more were Renteria in 00’ and Daryl Spencer in 60’, both with 16. Greene was slugging over .425 each of those years. We only have had 10 seasons (of 400 plate appearances or more) from our SS position at that level.
Not discounting that this is a gamble, and that it could go very wrong. Or that he lacks on base % ability. There is a really good best case scenario here though.
by Merry CRasmus on Dec 4, 2008 3:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Without checking the facts
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that if you added up all the home runs hit by everyone who’s played shortstop for us since Renteria left, you’d still be south of 15.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 10:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would bet you are wrong...but then again maybe not
2005 Eckstein 8
2006 Eckstein 2
2007 Eckstein 3
2008 Izturis 1
That is 14 from just the “starting” short stops, I bet the backups had more than 1. If you are only talking starters then you are indeed correct otherwise just slightly off
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was talking everyone
but had no idea Eck hit 8 home runs in ’05. What the hell got in to him that year?
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When did the Mitchell Report come out again?
[/sarcasm]
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 4, 2008 10:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Larry Walker
Most common 2 hole that year was Larry Walker 44 games, Edmonds 34 games and Nunez 26 games, so I think it says a lot about who was protecting him, when you are followed by Walker, Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen for most of your games
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Further study
I did a game by game analysis of his home runs:
May 17th D Eckstein (1, off B Wagner; 9th inn, 0 on, 1 out to LF) Walker and Pujols due up
May 25th D Eckstein (2, off M Redman; 3rd inn, 1 on, 2 outs to LF). Grudz due up
Jul 30th D Eckstein (3, off G Carrara; 6th inn, 2 on, 2 outs to LF); Nunez due up
Aug 3rd D Eckstein (4, off J Beckett; 3rd inn, 0 on, 1 out to LF); JRod and Pujols due up
Aug 7th D Eckstein (5, off C Reitsma; 9th inn, 3 on, 1 out to LF); JRod and Pujols due up, walk off grand slammer
Aug 27th D Eckstein (6, off M Stanton; 7th inn, 1 on, 0 outs to LF). Edmonds, Pujols and Molina due up
Aug 31st D Eckstein (7, off J Vargas; 3rd inn, 0 on, 1 out to LF); Taguchi and Pujols due up
Sept 21 D Eckstein (8, off R Ortiz; 2nd inn, 1 on, 2 outs to LF); Edmonds due up
So despite my earlier comment a bout Walker it appears Edmonds and JRod were his most common following batters after a HR each with only 2 appearances.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I still think it’s cool to know the history of those HRs just for fun :) Thanks for the post. Check out http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/09/the-protection-externality-it-doesnt-exist/ sometime for a perspective on whether or not lineup protection really exists, though.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What I think
What I think my research into his HRs showed was that he didn’t really have “protection” consistently from anyone, at least not behind those HRs. The only true protection that I beleive in is protection from IBBs.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
05 was ful of great moments for Eck
he hit the walk off granny against the Giants, after Pujols pulled J-Rod back to the dugout from the on-deck circle while Eck was at bat. He also had the HR after pulling back the bunt against the Braves – I believe.
by rlgosnell on Dec 4, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Greene's raw stats were worse than Izturis, but park-adjusted they had similar OPS+s
Greene was at 64
Izturis was at 67
Greene has a career 95 OPS+, which is above-average for a shortstop, plus an above-average glove.
-.75 wins offense (probably conservative)
+.75 wins position
+.5 wins fielding
2.5 WAR overall, which is a touch above average.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Except Izturis was +19 plays according to +/-, Inaz had him as a ~20 run player
Greene was not. Greene is likely to be better next year, but he was utterly atrocious last year.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 4, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was addressing offense only with Izturis and Greene
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gotcha
Just sayin, Izturis as a player wasn’t actually terrible last year.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 4, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I agree.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 10:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I, too, was also considering defense
but, now that I have the time, will definitely read the thread.
by chuckb on Dec 4, 2008 8:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think that it comes down to this:
We’re trading the player we know (Izturis), who has little upside, for one that has a tremendous amount of offensive potential, is in a contract year, and is coming off a horrific season for a last place club.
While he’s not as good defensively as Izturis (if you believe RZR and OOZ, few in the MLB are), he presents a 20+ OPS+ improvement if he improves to his career average, which includes his cruddy 64 OPS+ from last year. It’s not a stretch that he could be a 95-100 OPS+ player next year, which would be large improvement over Cesar.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But!....
…is it worth double the price of Izturis? For one year (contract year), I’m okay with it. I just don’t think he is a drastic improvement over Izturis, but given the SS market, we’re not going to find anybody that is a drastic improvement over Izturis.
by woodfeld on Dec 4, 2008 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't like this at all
the only way I’d feel comfortable putting Greene on this team is as a spring training NRI. no amount of guaranteed money makes sense, considering they’re already going “cheap” but not offering arbitration to anyone.
I have a love/hate relationship with the Cardinals' middle relief corps.
by madding on Dec 4, 2008 1:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Actually he is sign under market value 6.5 mil
Renteria is expected to sign tomorrow for 2yr 18 mil
by bearcatcardfan on Dec 4, 2008 1:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
gfr
The optimist in me says that a vacation from Petco would do KG right, but I haven’t seen/am too busy right now to look for his home/road splits.
does petco kill all hitting or just power hitting?eqfrw
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Dec 4, 2008 1:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Greene was eerily as awful
on the road as he was at home. Actually, he hit for more power at home.
In 2006 and 2007, his home split was right on line with 2008 but his away split carried him as an offensive player.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he was also miserable last year vs LHP
contrary to the rest of his career.
I really think he’ll bounce back, based on his BABIP peripherals, although the research done by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix at THT seems to indicate that he wasn’t as unlucky as I thought he was a month ago…
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 2:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember you advocating him
I think it might be a good speculative move. I advocated making a long term move here if you can, but if you have to trade Ludwick to do it, or if the Furcal dollars are close to what is rumored then I don’t see where that should happen.
In one sense it is a huge risk, because he was abysmal last year. In another it is not, because you are on the hook for one year again. One drawback is that we are very likely to have to play the same type of game again the next year, and maybe the year after that.
I really want to see what is being given up for him. I’m assuming not much. If this deal happened in 2006, or 2007, it would have been expensive. In that sense it’s a well timed gamble for value. Outside of last year, he held up real well away from Petco, so I feel there’s a good chance this works out. OBP is going to be bad, just a matter of how bad. Hope it is north of .300. I expect some power and solid defense though.
by Merry CRasmus on Dec 4, 2008 2:21 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he bounces back (to what he was before last year)
There’s a pretty good chance he hits ~.280/.330/.500, his home/road stats are astounding.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Last 3 years...
Home: .214/.275/.378
Away: .265/.307/.462
by mikedallas45 on Dec 4, 2008 9:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, no kidding
I was just trying to point out the reward by removing last season.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he does that
I’ll dance a jig…
As the commenter above posted, his road splits aren’t even that good. He’d have to drastically improve his plate discipline to have an OBP north of .320 next season, which could happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 9:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder how well he will get along with Tony
Is Greene a little “out there”? He fractured his hand last year when he slammed it on a storage chest ending his season. I’m sure it was an act of frustration but it makes you wonder. I can imagine him and Tony getting into it at some point in the season. (Just kidding …I think) He does have one thing going for him that Tony will like …..the MULLET!!
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
by KYCards on Dec 4, 2008 5:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure
it’s just long hair that happens to be pulled back because he’s wearing a cap.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on Dec 4, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not really a mullet
More like California surfer-dude hair.
by mojowo11 on Dec 4, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kind of like this dude?
We have Jeff Spicoli playing SS….DUDE!!!!
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
by KYCards on Dec 4, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's awesome
The best part is that his hair is exactly the same as the two women in the shot.
by mojowo11 on Dec 4, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think this might be a photo of Greene's press conference
after he found out about the trade.
His quote: “Dude I can totally afford to have Van Halen play at my party now!!”
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
by KYCards on Dec 4, 2008 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I read the article in the san diego paper
I was skimming through the comments and I saw Jason Motte and Chris Perez and I flipped out but then I read that post carefully and it was just a fans fantasy so I could breathe again.
by bearcatcardfan on Dec 4, 2008 5:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
as long as last year was a "fluke" and not a "lingering injury that nobody's mentioned"
I guess I’m okay with this. It’s one year at $6.5M. I’d be more annoyed but the SS market is so terrible this year. Not sure what we’d get that would be better without spending twice as much.
So, between Miller and Greene, we still have about 11 or 12M to play with.
Next priorities:
Ship Kennedy somewhere.
Get a 2b.
Probably one or two hands for the bullpen.
I guess the real question is whether the bulk of the money goes to a marquee name closer (hoffman) and knock wood for Carpenter, KMac or Boggs to start, or a middle of the pack starter (wolf, looper) and knock wood for Perez or Motte to close well. If we don’t have to eat a chunk of Kennedy’s salary or not, there could be a little more flexibility in the $ dept.
by tom s. on Dec 4, 2008 5:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Unless you can tell me what we could hypothetically spend Kennedy's money on
I see no reason to trade him.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’d definitely take a 93 wOBA+ and #3-ranked 2B defense for “free” and plan to start Kennedy every day if trading him means that we’ll be more or less eating his contract.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well, he doesn't want to be here.
that’s always fun for the clubhouse.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on Dec 4, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but if he's the strong end of a platoon he'll be fine
…and who cares if Kennedy is upset? I don’t. He’s Adam bleeping Kennedy no one cares.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Manny went kamikaze on the Red Sox to force a trade. He’s a superstar-class player, though, and Kennedy might end his career if he tried to hold his breath. Still, the possibility is out there to “lose” him if the human elements aren’t manageable.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It might be different if he was named the starter
TLR really hasn’t given him that much playing time (I’m saying based only on observation). If he were given some sort of guarantee that the job was his to lose and he is going to get most of the ABs against RHP and maybe some chances against LHP maybe he would feel differently.
by OCCardsFan on Dec 4, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His trade request was allegedly due to positional uncertainty. I think things would be cool if he were told that he was the everyday 2B, no platooning or jiving around unless things get ugly.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know I get on Hal McRae alot
but maybe he can fix Greene’s approach. And maybe just maybe he will become the 2004-2007 version again or better?
To be honest I am liking this move more and more. Plus this is his contract year so I have a feeling we are going to see some pretty big numbers out of him this season. He will also be in a better line-up than he was in San Diego and he did hit pretty good at Busch in the few times he played there. I know he hit a homer off Looper last year at Busch and I think he hit one in the 06 playoffs as well.
One thing is for sure….I am pretty sure he will be better than Cesar. So that is a big plus. The thought of getting 15-20 HRs out of our SS has me a little excited. If only he can get on base more. Hal McRaeI am looking at you………
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
by KYCards on Dec 4, 2008 6:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Or Maybe Pujols can fix his approach
n/m
"I have CDO. It's like OCD, but the letters are in alphabetical order. Like they should be."
by BigMOman on Dec 4, 2008 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You beat me to it
The Man as the honorary hitting coach.
I know he will probably be sloted 6th behind Santa, but I imagine Tony might put him in the two hole occassionally. I think he has potential to do some damage there, but I hate his strikeouts.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Dec 4, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would rather see a donkey show permanently placed in the LF bleachers than put .304 OBP in front of Pujols
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 4, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Chris Duncan's going to be back right?
[/mean robot]
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
dooooooooooooodd
i laughed,
hard.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Dec 4, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like this move for if he doesn't work out its only for a year.....
Just waiting to see what pitching the Cards are giving up for him…….. thats where I am concerned a bit with this trade.
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.-Rogers Hornsby
by thegashousegang on Dec 4, 2008 7:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
as long as we didn't give up much
there’s not a lot of downside.
by chuckb on Dec 4, 2008 9:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That
should be a stock quote around here.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Dec 4, 2008 9:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thats so true
each of these risk moves are each a good idea taken in a vacuum, but it seems like its all we ever do. We never get the impact guy, we get the bargain
and we are alway “pretty good”
It used to not be that way, but since thats been the MO the team has fallen out of contention.
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Dec 4, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Glaus and Walker weren't impact guys?
if we put together a package sufficient to get a real impact guy in a trade, there would be nothing but gnashing and wailing around here. Same thing if we went and put together a Zito-style package to get Sabathia or someone of that ilk.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 4, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hudson or Furcal or whomever would be
so would a Burnett or something along those lines.
I know they are injury problems, but all of those guys are at least good when healthy. Greene could be fine but he is just as big of a risk, and he has had four major injuries, and he has shown some inconsistency now hitting.
its not just Sabathia vs. Lopez or something.
Glaus was a godsend, and it was trading our problem for yours and we got lucky as far as injury and production is concerned.
Walker was great for half a year, but he was an old man winding down his career not a building block, plus he was four years ago.
I guess part of what im saying is if a guy is out there we need I just dnot think this team will get him. they will try to make some kind of odd deal and get someone who “could” be good but is super cheap.
im not advocating going out and getting the highest of price players, but splurging for something here and there isnt bad.
It seems like we wont spend on any one special player to make a position clearly an asset, we would rather gamble every year.
and it works many times, but there are many times its a Ponson, or a Clement too, or the many unsuccessful 2b guys. And thats the problem we waste resources on those guys and want to get cute instead of shoring up a position because we are gun shy.
instead of having a great team we have a competitive one
they are are reasonable gambles (some work, some dont) but they are never impact guys.
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Dec 4, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
also
ive heard over and over 2009 and money off the books, and now that its here…
its just more of the same.
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Dec 4, 2008 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just don't think that's true
the org was more than willing to open up the checkbook on Rolen, Edmonds, Carpenter, and Pujols. They have also made plenty of more ill-advised decisions.
It’s true that they weren’t fond of outbidding people on the open market, but I’m willing to cut them some slack on that. Especially since this is Mozilak’s first true offseason. Let’s see what he does with the team before we jump on him. There are a lot of ace-type pitchers on the fa market this time around. There’s plenty of money to spend on them, now that we have a cheap SS that didn’t cost any of the mlb roster. We still have a glut of outfielders to trade.
I really doubt if the current roster is our opening day roster. and Greene was a shrewd move. This trade won’t hurt the team, and it coudl likely be a vast help.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 4, 2008 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
shortstop market
is full of gambles. who else is there? renteria? he was abysmal, plus he’s old/has no upside. Greene sucked, but at least he’s entering his prime years. Plus he costs 3 mil/yr less and doesn’t require a commitment past this coming season.
I think your gambling/impact analogy is based on false assumptions. There is no specific player the cardinals “need”. There are always multiple options with various levels of risk. In this case, there aren’t any young building block players available in positions the cards need. I’m not sure what kind of move you’re advocating. I’d only want the cards to be massive spenders on a guy who will be around and producing for years and years, even if he’s hurt for one of them. Otherwise, keep it flexible and don’t get screwed by billy beane.
by spencegrif on Dec 5, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Most of acquisitions of big names aren't good deals.
Much better to go with lots of smaller bargains and develop the exciting guys from within. Ludwick, Ankiel, and Pujos aren’t enough excitement?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Acquiring “impact” or “exciting” players from outside one’s own organization is usually cost-prohibitive either from a $$$$ or prospect standpoint.
I do however see a future where teams trade minor league players for minor league players in an effort to fill organizational holes. These types of transactions will be a true test of an organization’s ability to identify talent.
by indakind on Dec 4, 2008 5:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
also im not saying we need to do this every year or for ever hole
but maybe ONCE if we need something.
sometimes you need something and its expensive you just need to bite the bullet and buy it because its necessary
thats why many of us think they are kind of cheap.
none of us expect them to sign Zito, Soriano, or C.C. in any year
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Dec 4, 2008 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just dont want to waste Pujols career on average teams that dont have a shot
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Dec 4, 2008 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How much of an offensive impact do we really need at SS anyway?
There seems to be a general tone of apathy toward this deal. I think we upgraded our position (albeit slightly) without costing us significant amounts of salary or prospects.
Also, how much offense do we really need anyway? We had ONE player perform above his expectations, and several perform way below them, yet we still scored more runs than most of the league.
I am personally excited about our lineup as it is.
1. Schu/Barton/Rasmus
2. Duncan/Ank/Rasmus
3. Pujols
4. Luddy
5. Glaus
6. Molina
7. Greene
8. Kennedy/Grit/Ryan/Green/Lopez
Even if Ludwick regresses some, we should still be pretty stout. If Pujols’s elbow is stronger, his power numbers may actually rise. Glaus WILL hit lefties better this year. Ank should stay a bit healthier, and hopefully stop swinging at everything thrown at him. The Schumaker/Mather/Barton platoon should always throw a hot bat or a good matchup on the field. If Rasmus makes the team, he will provide a good OBP and some fair power numbers along with his good speed. Molina may regress a bit, but he seems to have found is stroke as a line-drive singles hitter.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Dec 5, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, how much offense do we really need anyway?
As much as we can? Why stop getting better? A run scored = a run saved
by JI on Dec 5, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
While Ank can definitely improve
he did take his fair share of walks, and his batting eye wasn’t that bad.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 5, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Projection
Marcel: .301 wOBA (600 PAs) = -18runs
Chone: +5runs
Positional Adjustment: +7.5runs
Replacement Level: +20runs
Total: +7runs
Just looking at the numbers, Khalil looks like he’s about half a win better than replacement. That would me he’s worth around $3M. So at first blush, the Cardinals seem to be overpaying. A few factors to consider:
1) Short of Rafeal Furcal, the SS options are limited on the free agent market.
2) PETCO is hell to hit in. A bunch of Padres hitters have bemoaned this fact publicly (including Brian Giles) so it’s possible that there’s a psychological factor for Greene that would be remedied by moving out of PETCO. This could improve his offense some.
3) His 2008 Marcel .322 but he posted a .264 wOBA. His regressed version would be a slightly higher which points to some form of bad luck. (I’d love for StatCorner and Fangraphs to get their numbers lined up. I think they are handling certain events in wOBA differently.) A .322 wOBA would be be 10 runs better than his 2009 projection.
4) I’m not sure what aging factor to apply to Greene who will turn 30 next year. Maybe dock him 2 runs or so?
That’s what the numbers point to at least.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 8:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
left out the positional adjustment
Total should be +14 runs. No addition before 8:00am.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 8:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so...
does that mean he is worth 6 mil?
by VolsnCards5 on Dec 4, 2008 9:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well that is good to know
i really like this trade
by VolsnCards5 on Dec 4, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
mo got it.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 4, 2008 7:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Marcel doesn't address home ballpark, though, which is huge in Greene's case
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 10:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
but it’s also possible that we’re looking for reasons to answer down numbers when we should simply call it decline.
I’d be willing to call Greene a league average player next year but not much beyond that.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you have any good links to average performance per year, per position?
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The positional adjustment takes care of that.
Compare the player to league average and then use a positional adjustment. Tango’s done a lot of work on it and if you search The BOOK Blog for ‘positional adjustments’ you’ll find some detailed articles on them.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think they are handling certain events in wOBA differently.
They are, it may have something to do with IBBs. Now that Matthew ’s back feel free to ask away.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
http://www.statcorner.com/blog/2008/11/woba.html
“Just so y’all know, the reason that our wOBA is different to Fangraphs’s is because we include reached base on error as part of the formula and they don’t.”
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh sweet Jesus
No joke, I had a dream last night about the Cards signing Khalil Greene and woke up to see the news. Stupid collective subconscious…
I have to say I’m pretty disappointed with the signing for reasons having almost everything to do with cosmetic issues for the Cards. Seems like a poor aesthetic fit, even though he’s put up decent numbers at times. Does that make me a bad fan?
I think I’m going to call in sick to work with JoeMorganitis.
"Well, folks, this game began as a tiny worm and is blossoming into a large cobra." - Mike "The Moon Man" Shannon
by Tudor's Electric Fan on Dec 4, 2008 8:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Khalil Greene bad aesthetically?
The man has intense flair, if nothing else.
by mojowo11 on Dec 4, 2008 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Mo never makes any moves
If Mo makes a move, then Mo is not making a good move. It’s 1 year for greene, it provides the 1 year stopgap to get a fix on kozma and our greene to see how there moving along. I think this could come out on the good end for us. And why is everyone " wah he was horrible last year" yeah and sometimes in baseball, get this, people have bad years………Woooooooooooooooooooooo kinda dumb right to have a bad year, wow.
by from First to Third on Dec 4, 2008 8:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes people have bad years, yes
But he didn’t have merely a “bad” year. He fell off a cliff. He went from consistently productive to offensive abomination.
I do expect he’ll bounce back, though, at least assuming there’s no injury holdover problem.
by mojowo11 on Dec 4, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We may have just screwed the Cubs
one article I read believes that the salary relief from dumping Greene may allow the Padres to keep from trading Jake Peavy.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 8:52 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
bwahahahahaha
that’d be really really great.
Add Peavy to that rotation and… oh man
by Scarecrow7775 on Dec 4, 2008 8:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever, they'd still choke
And then they’d be on the hook for 120 million to 8 players for 2010 and not have a single average major leaguer in their system.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 4, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just a thought
Peavy’s entire postseason career consists of two starts against the Cardinals. We beat him up both times (though he was pitching with a broken rib in one of them, iirc).
Peavy to the Cubs! :P
by mojowo11 on Dec 4, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
screwed the cubs?
Any deal is worth it if we screw the cubs… LOL
If Greene has a good year for the Redbirds and Peavy stays in San Diego this deal is well worth every dime. If it just keeps Peavy with the Padres it still might be worth it…. :)
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.-Rogers Hornsby
by thegashousegang on Dec 4, 2008 9:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also the Braves...
who, if they aren’t going to trade for Jake Peavy, will presumably have Kelly Johnson available to play 2B for El Birdos. Whereas Greene is pretty clearly going to be a stopgap, I view Johnson as a long-term solution at second. I mentioned it in the beginning of the thread, but it’s known that Atlanta wants an outfeld bat, and its further known that we have Ryan Ludwick on our team. Ludwick for Johnson would be a big move. Just sayin…
"The Mollusk" makes me want to rail LSD crystals off my friends' sternum. Rage."
by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ on Dec 4, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Johnson can't field, so he's nmot much of a LT solution.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's not that he can't field
he’s a league-average 2B, within the margin of error for defensive measurements. I’d love to have KJ playing 2B for us, all things being equal.
The “defense” argument against him is that we have an elite fielder at 2B now, and KJ isn’t enough better than Kennedy offensively to justify trading Ludwick for him.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about...
….Ludwick to Texas for Ian Kinsler?
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 4, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it would take
more than just ludwick
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 4, 2008 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Texas needs pitchers anyway,
wheras the braves seem to be building to compete now and are absolutely in the market for an outfielder like Ludwick.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 4, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not so sure...
…it would take much more. Texas has Joaquin Arias banging on the door for a regular MI job and they could really use another bopper in the outfield to go with Hamilton and Byrd. It’s a question of relative needs…
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 4, 2008 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Murphy might be that guy for them
Texas is also probably going to be dealing a catcher or 5 at some point as well to fill some needs.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They scored the most runs in the MLB last year
They scored 50 more runs than the next team. Offense isn’t really their problem, I don’t think, even with Milton Bradley likely leaving.
by mojowo11 on Dec 4, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
suddenly this deal is not-bad
Haha
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 4, 2008 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If they’re throwing prospects and/or players for the privilege to pay it, I would be amused to see Peavy’s contract added to the wall at http://www.cubsnet.com/node/790 . They’re already on the hook for 80.9M in 2011 – with six (6) players! 50M in 2012 for three (3)! And thes are are only names like Soriano, Lee, Dempster, and Fukudome. They’re fielding some quality teams right now, but man, that payroll.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
according to olney via mlbtraderumors . . .
“The Cubs and Padres "have a basic framework in place” for a Jake Peavy deal built around third baseman Josh Vitters. Things may pick up after the Cubs’ ownership situation is resolved." I don’t know much about Vitters . . . he has played in low A ball it looks like. He has 324 ABs and put up .327/.435/.762.
If the Padres want a guy to man the hot corner in the future, it would seem like the Cards match up well. Even excluding the Walrus & Freese (who they may not want back)—the Cards could offer Craig . . .
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
by sprfldcard on Dec 4, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Better yet
if they are looking for a 3rd basemen, why did they trade Freese for Jim Edmonds charred remains?
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well, freese was
really struggling when he got traded . . . seems like he was called a C+ prospect—the cards jumped him two levels to AAA and he bloomed . . . but your right, it could just be idle speculation like 50 to 99% of hot stove talk is
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
by sprfldcard on Dec 4, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's more about Vitters
He’s the best player in the Cubs paltry farm system, so even if you didn’t have a need for a third baseman, you would make him the centerpiece of the trade because the Cubs have very little else to offer you in terms of prospects.
Vitters isn’t comparable to Freese — he’s a top 50 prospect. Freese wasn’t in the top 100 when he was traded. He really came into his own this year. The Pads thought they were getting the 2005 Jim Edmonds for a lesser prospect in hopes that a lefty power bat could push them to the top of the division — it just didn’t work out that way.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Vitters is a much better prospect than Craig/Freese
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 4, 2008 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe you . . .
but can you show & tell . . .
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
by sprfldcard on Dec 4, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
finishing a thought . . .
there is so much time & distance between A & AAA that it would seem easy for a player to struggle—lose his shine & distinction as a good/great prospect . . . which is why i’m asking about vitters
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
by sprfldcard on Dec 4, 2008 12:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the hype is definately there with Vitters
but he hasn’t done a thing above low A ball and he’s been there for a year and a half. People considered him the best hitter in the draft, well I’d hope the best hitter in the draft could rake a low A in his second go around there.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i realize
that numbers don’t always tell the whole story on a prospect—but here are Freese and Craigs numbers
Allen Craig’s minor league line 363/.498/.861
Freese’s minor league line .385/.529/.914
what do people see in Vitters that makes him so much better. Is he struggling to adjust? Lots of tools that haven’t been put together yet? Injury plagued?
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
by sprfldcard on Dec 4, 2008 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait
Are those the traditional Avg. / OBP / Slg.? Surely not, right? They have to be OBP / SLG / OPS, don’t they?
by Ray Lankford on Dec 4, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you're correct
they were obp/slg/ops here are avg/obp/slg
.307 .385 .529 Freese
.300 .363 .498 Craig
.290 .327 .435 Vitters
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
by sprfldcard on Dec 4, 2008 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know Vitters is really young compared to Craig and Freese
I know Freese went to college (not sure about Craig) but Vitters was only like 17 when he was drafted. Although I’d still like to see a little production at Peoria from my first round pick if I were the cubs.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that could be Mo's plan.
Peavy would make the Cubs absolute frontrunners by FAR for the central crown. Maybe he feels that taking some salary off the Padres’ books will discourage them from giving their ace to the Cubs. I know it’s a long shot, but this could be a much more brilliant GM move than we know.
On with the (good) youth movement!
by aet15 on Dec 4, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nice
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 4, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
high risk, high reward
If Greene reverts to his pre-2008 offensive stats, then this is a great deal. It almost doesn’t matter who we give up provided that they really are relief prospects. I don’t think guys like Perez or Motte qualify as prospects anymore.
Then again, Greene could stink the joint up.
I wonder;
Is this a one year stop-gap?
A buy low and resign long term (provided he performs at a level that warrants resigning)?
What do we have hear- contract wise?
by Scarecrow7775 on Dec 4, 2008 8:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It's low risk
We (presumably) aren’t giving anything up of value, and it’s a one year deal.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
$$$$$$
Given the Friars situation, I’m assuming the Cards are picking up all the 6.5 mil for next year
by Scarecrow7775 on Dec 4, 2008 9:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Ozzie Smith
It just occurred to me that the last time the Cards made a trade with the Pads for a short-stop we landed Ozzie.
Here’s hoping this one works out half as well.
by Scarecrow7775 on Dec 4, 2008 9:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Leadoff hitter?
Greene’s not gonna be a leadoff hitter. I’m wondering if this means we’re keeping Skip and playing him somewhere..
Or else we’re committing right now to Colby leading off. HAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH.
by sdrone on Dec 4, 2008 9:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
He doesn’t have anywhere near the OBP to bat leadoff. If Tony keeps batting the pitcher 8th then I see Greene hitting 7th and the 2B batting 9th.
by mikedallas45 on Dec 4, 2008 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
With this deal we have an interesting lineup construction...
Since Greene really shouldn’t bat at the top of the order and doesn’t really help the club in the 9th spot either, there’s a real dilemma in lineup construction at the present time: We have one too many 6 and 7 hitters in the lineup (Ankiel, Molina, Greene). I’m assuming that the current lineup would have Kennedy batting 9th.
The question is, which of these lineups is the best one, assuming that Greene returns to somewhere near 2007 form?
Lineup 1:
- Rasmus/Schu/Barton
- Ankiel
- Pujols
- Ludwick
- Glaus
- Greene
- Molina
- Pitcher
- Kennedy
Lineup #2:
- Rasmus/Schu/Barton
- Glaus
- Pujols
- Ludwick
- Ankiel
- Greene
- Molina
- Pitcher
- Kennedy
It basically comes down to whoever bats second, I like Glaus up there because of his high OBP, but he seems to be more comfortable in the 5th spot in the lineup. If Ank is able to post a .350+ OBP he could hit up there as well. If the club was able to dump Kennedy somewhere and acquire a 2nd baseman that could lead off that would solve a lot of problems, namely, we wouldn’t have to play Schumaker and could replace him with another bopper like Duncan or Mather, or the team could move Ank to right, play Rasmus in centerfield and bat him second, which is where he belongs, imo.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well I'd say
Molina 6, Greene 7, Pitcher 8 would make sense. Molina can’t run, Greene has the pop to allow him to jog home. The total lack of walks matters less with the pitcher behind him (though of course this would encourage Greene to swing at even more than 35% of out of zone pitches). Don’t know how much else we can say given that it’s gotta be a certainty that we trade off some of the OF logjam…
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 4, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
I always felt having Molina bat in front of the pitcher was kinda defeating the purpose last year since it was so difficult for the pitcher to bunt him over. And, without having the pitcher hit behind him should help Yadi see better pitches.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say Molina getting free walks is a good thing
since he’s not much with the bat.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Walks don't push your batting average over .300
especially since walks aren’t reflected in batting average and also since he swings at so many pitches out of the strike zone.
Oh, and he walked a whopping 32 times last year.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You seem to think Molina is getting all kinds of free walks
and that he can’t hit. Although, the contrary is actually true in both cases.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Molina is a below average hitter
and if he gets a couple of extra walks because he hits in front of the P, good on us.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not for a superior defensive catcher he's not
If you take into account his defense, he’s an above average catcher overall. I’d rather have him behind the plate than have a horrible defensive catcher that can hit.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well
his defense has zilch to do with his hitting and saying “molina is a below average hitter” is not saying anything about his overall game…just his hitting.
by lopey986 on Dec 4, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I still thing he's a very good player
just a mediocre hitter
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure the LL memes
are going to transfer to VEB. Whether that’s good or bad, I’m not sure.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I blame draysbay
I like that even VEB’s glib affirmatives are based on numbers.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 5, 2008 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a nonVEB one.
I see it at LL all the time and assumed it originated in those parts since there’s a lot of crazies* over there.
*I enjoy the crazies.
by azruavatar on Dec 6, 2008 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what league average catchers are but...
Molina is a career: .262/.316/.360 hitter, and had a .304/.349/.392 2008. His OBP has been at least .040 higher than his BA every season due to walks. I don’t think him walking has anything to do with the pitcher (he has around 3-5 IBBs each year too) but more to do with his good eye for the strike zone.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.040 ISOP is pretty low
League average for a C is .255/.328/.387, or a .073 ISOP.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2008
in 2008 he had a .088 ISO
and career is .096
I am using the PECOTA ISO = (2B + 3B + (HR*3)) / AB
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
isolated patience
isop, not iso. OBP-BA.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
huh?
I have never heard of ISOP, also what does walks have to do with Patience when you are hitting close to .300 anyway? I can be patient yet able to make contact on the balls I was waiting for. A better stat for Patience might be swinging strikes or swings outside the strike zone.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
from your original post
"His OBP has been at least .040 higher than his BA "
OBP-BA is ISOp. It’s a stat I first saw over at baseballprospectus, but it’s been used a number of places with various names. Players with high ISOp are valuable in that their offensive value doesn’t fall off a cliff when they slump (a la Yadi 2005/6).
I was just pointing out that Molina’s “OBP-BA” is significantly lower than league average for a catcher. He hit .300 this year, so he was valuable, but if he has bad luck next year it could impact his value much more than, say, when Adam Dunn has a run of bad luck.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
But I didn’t call it patience and I have never heard of the ISOP stat nor was I able to find anything but references to it, no page detailing how to calculate it (though it seems simple enough). I also disagree with it being a good measure of someone’s patience.
To the original comment though I was mainly stating that Yadi has been consistent in taking .040 OBP worth of walks regardless of where he has hit or has been behind him so I doubt putting Greene behind him vs the pitcher would change much about his walk rate.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why no Greene in the 2 spot?
It might helps his odds of seeing a pitch in the zone. Though I most certainly do not enjoy his OBP numbers and what they would do to Albert’s RBI chances.
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Dec 4, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Skippy
Could he play 2nd? He sure grounds out to it enough (when he’s not slapping singles over it)
"I don't believe what I just saw!" ~ Jack Buck
by itsalemmon1019 on Dec 4, 2008 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about trying Greene
in the 2 hole? with him being such a free swinger, having #5 behind him might give him some pitches to hit
by let'er rip skip on Dec 4, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd entertain it
and with all of his strikeouts, we’d still have a guy on first for Albert.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 12:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Personally, I’d hate to put that low of an OBP in the top of the order and wouldn’t expect him to put up better numbers by batting in front of Pujols per studies such as http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/09/the-protection-externality-it-doesnt-exist/ . Have there been any new findings on protection analysis?
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Tell Ryan Ludwick hitting in front of Pujos doesn't help
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He didn't hit that much better when he hit in front of Pujols
Ankiel hit better this year hitting behind him, than he did in front of him.
There’s not much of an effect.
I would argue that hitting in front of Pujols should be harder because pitchers should be going max effort to get you out so there’s no baserunners on when he comes up.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ludwick - Small sample size
2nd .339/.407/.701 1.108OPS
4th .295/.369/.587 .956OPS
He had about 1/2 as many ABs in the 2nd slot though
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His BABIP was .388 in the #2 hole
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It was still elevated at .330
in the #4 hole.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and for the year at .342
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What I'm saying is that
1) It was a small sample, so whatever
2) But even if you ignored that, once you dig a little deeper he was pretty similar in each spot
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Was I disagreeing with you?
All I did was post the facts, both are similarly good, both are his most ABs and better then other positions he was in and his BABIP was elevated all year long, thus he is a perfect candidate for regression, I think he might have been better in front of Pujols mainly do to the pressure of hitting in an RBI spot vs the pressure in an OBP spot.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And batters shouldn't approach their at bats differently
whether they are hitting 2 or 4
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That depends
if Albert Pujols is hitting #3 and Adam Kennedy is hitting #5, you should adjust accordingly if there is a runner on 2nd base.
Don’t laugh, Adam Kennedy at #5 could happen!
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He was 5 last year a few times
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hell, he was #4 a few times last year! [barf]
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on Dec 4, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shouldn't doesn't mean they don't
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
When Duncan/Ludwick hit second
They swing away like any other. I’m pretty sure that LaRussa emphasizes to them that he wants them to hack like a “4 hitter” would and not to try to punch the ball the other way for a single.
Roles are stupid. Hitters should hit to the style that suits them regardless of where they bat.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ankiel hit worse in the 2 hole
because almost all of those ABs were vs. LHPs. There is a very real Pujols efffect in spite of what the general theory of protection might say.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Dec 4, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"almost all of those ABs were vs. LHPs."
Where did you find those double-situational splits? That would be a cool thing to be able to look up.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
MLB has some double situational splits
but they don’t have batting order splits at all it seems
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't "prove" it
but I remember that Ank was hitting four/five early in the year against RHPs and hitting second vs. LHPs. I wish those types of stats were available, but you are just going to have to trust me….or not. No time today to sift through gamelogs for the whole season, but a spot check of the April games verifies that. He may have batted second a few times against RHPs, but usually not.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Dec 4, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that would make some sense
since Duncan was in the lineup early in the season against RHP.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Try telling me that sample sizes don’t help :/ The link I provided scientifically tests every plate appearance for every player from 1984-1992. I don’t see the value in focusing two shortened seasons for a single player in comparison to that.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh, no. You want guys on base in front of Pujols/Ludwick/etc.
Why would pitchers give him pitches to hit when they know he’ll swing at anything?
I’d seriously consider Pujols in the #2 hole — more ABs and more good hitters after him to drive him in.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think if you hit Glaus second
and Ludwick/Ankiel 4th and 5th, you’ll be fine
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like him in the 2 hole also
the #4 hole would be ok too but, to me, the extra PAs are worth it.
by chuckb on Dec 4, 2008 8:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
really hope worrel is involved
he seems to be disgruntled
guy deserves a shot somewhere, even if its with the pads. They do have a history of using quirky relievers- Cla Meredith comes to mind.
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
by scoot on Dec 4, 2008 9:36 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Holy crap
He is clearly pissed. *
*I’d be pissed to if they kept calling up Jimenez over me after posting those numbers.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 9:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What a baby.....
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 4, 2008 9:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Did you read that?
I just wanted to hit the ball hard somewhere to be honest with you. I crushed that ball, as you seen. I can hit a little bit; I hit in college. I would like to get more at bats in the future. If the Cardinals would have given more (time) in the big leagues as a middle reliever, I would have gotten more at bats. I don’t handle the bat like most pitchers.
Like that can’t possibly be the real Mark Worrell. If it is, his agent needs to contact Midol about an endorsement deal they’re a match made in heaven. The pitching stuff, okay, he should shut his mouth in public but whatever, but that’s unbelievable.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 4, 2008 10:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just double but-ed a sentence. Whoops
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 4, 2008 10:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he understands what the duties of a middle relief pitcher actually entails
Hey Mark, if our middle relief is getting a lot of at bats, then we’ve got big issues…………….
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Big issues?
Like pulling OF’ers in the 6th inning for defensive replacements? Those kinds of big issues with roster management? :D
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just wanted to hit the ball hard somewhere to be honest with you. I crushed that ball, as you seen. I can hit a little bit; I hit in college. I would like to get more at bats in the future. Ifthe Cardinals would have given more (time)I hadn’t walked half the batters I faced in the big leagues as a middle reliever, I would have gotten more at bats. I don’t handle the bat like most pitchers.
fixed.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, fer pity's sake,
offhand allusions to PMS do not constitute misogyny.
"Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals." --Churchill
by lordsummer on Dec 9, 2008 8:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 4, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Make that two babies.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 4, 2008 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
THE CARDINALS MANAGEMENT IS NEVER WRONG!
^ That clearly got deleted from your comment.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Nice!
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 4, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That was only the title
you forgot:
WHAT A FOOL THAT WORREL KID IS TO QUESTION THE GENIUS!
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Name-calling aside
Worrell airing his grievances aloud isn’t going to help anyone (even himself). That said, he has been passed over for inferior relievers last year.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But Jiminez's
role is “Whipping Boy.” Not sure Worrell wants that role.
by spants on Dec 4, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sadly
for M Worrell’s case, Jimenez’ very pedestrian numbers were mostly far better than his. I think it is probably a good thing for the org that both of them are gone. At least we actually got something of value for Worrell.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Dec 4, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Given his comments...
…about being better than some of the Cardinals’ “up-and-coming prospects,” I don’t think Worrell had Jiminez in mind. Try Perez, Motte, or McClellan, in which case I wish him a certain kind of luck in SD.
by Forsch31 on Dec 5, 2008 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to ask ...
WTF?
Now I understand!
by chuckb on Dec 4, 2008 8:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
C'mon Sooner!
what’s the matter w/ you? You’ve been around here long enough to know better than that!
by chuckb on Dec 4, 2008 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
After reading that
I’d be surprised if it wasn’t Worrell.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 10:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would be surprised if it was him
it seemed like a joke, if that was real then he surely is a baby
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Please explain to me, because I really want to know.
why someone in your organization, performing well at the highest level, not one, but two years in a row, doesn’t have a clue what his future with you is. He was passed over. Did someone ever sit down and tell him what they perceived his deficiencies to be?
You say he’s being a “baby” for speaking up—after two years? And the minute he does, he’s in a trade?
I hate hearing this kind of stuff. I think it’s no way to handle players who are ASSETS, as long as you own the rights to them you need to treat them as such. I’ve posted about this type of thing before, and the Cardinals really need to start thinking about how they treat ALL of their players. Every single one of them-from the lowest minors to the biggest superstar, should be treated with respect. Every one of those players have friends who are professional baseball players. As they move from team to team, they talk about how they were treated before-if the Cardinals want to be the first choice of the players that DO have a choice, they really ought to just fix it. It’s bad public relations, it’s bad player relations, but I guess the attitude is that we own you for six years, you’re just crap….
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Dec 4, 2008 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're reading a lot into the words of one particular player
I also think that you’re taking his honesty for granted. If this was another player talking about Worrell that’s one thing, but he’s talking about himself and about how he “never got a chance” and “never got spoken to about anything”. I find that really hard to believe considering the organizations efforts toward player development.
Should every player know exactly where they stand with the organization and how the organization feels about them? I don’t think so, and I have a hard time believing that there are non-baseball organizations that operate in that manner as well. Mark should be more concerned about going out and doing his job than whether the organization likes him and has a spot for him. If he goes out and does a stellar job than the club will make room for him somewhere — I just don’t think that he’s done that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I find it disturbing.
and I don’t think 2 weeks qualifies as a “chance.”
There’s no indication that Mark Worrell didn’t go out and do his job.
They don’t have to say anything to him, and he says they didn’t. It’s the Cardinal Way.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Dec 4, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He also said later in the article
“I’ve done everything they’ve asked of me”
So obviously they asked him to do something right? Or he just talking out of both sides of his mouth. I wish him well in his new home on a last place team.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 6:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're looking at this with a little tunnel vision
In your perfect world example of how a professional baseball organization is supposed to run, do you have any idea how impossible that would be to accomplish, let alone even being realistic?
And how many organizations run exactly like the Cardinals? I’d feel pretty confident saying almost all of them (if not all of them). The only reason you don’t know about it is because you aren’t tuned in to hearing it. This article showed up on a blog and I bet it only made it to mlbtraderumors because that guy checks VEB regularly for information.
They can’t coddle every single player and honestly, they really shouldn’t coddle any of their players. What are they supposed to tell a guy who is a fringe player? “Well, you aren’t very good, but you fill a role right here in Springfield, Missouri, so you’ll probably stay here the rest of your career.” Wow, that’s a way to inspire. Or are you saying they should lie to all of their players to get the most out of them?
Or maybe, the player takes it upon himself to know that absolutely nothing is handed to you in this sport. There are hundreds of guys who can do your job (especially when you’re a right handed relief pitcher) and you are 100% replaceable. Know that, work your ass off, and keep your mouth shut and you might find yourself to be one of the very few who actually make it to the major leagues.
Tons of players get passed over and treated unfairly. That’s baseball and that’s life.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True, but remember where the club was this season in the bullpen.
Watching the club blow 31 saves, watching TLR give ridiculous chances to players (giving Kennedy at-bats in September while playing in RF), and watching TLR just wear out members of the bullpen (K-Mac) in September while he was playing the offense like he was trying to create the FEWEST runs possible. I spent a lot of September scratching my head and trying to figure out which inmate was running the asylum. Come on. If that doesn’t make a guy frustrated, then what will? If he wasn’t going to see the bigs again in September, then when was he going to?
There is also the possibility that he said all this deliberately to try to get a fresh opportunity.
He’s a talented guy and I hope he does well elsewhere.
by tom s. on Dec 5, 2008 3:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
we don't live in a big media market, too
Other managers have “massage the egos of the star players or else” in their tacit job description. Our star player is fairly ego-free, and our manager does his best communication on the line-up card. Fairly atypical for an organization-that-is-not-dysfunctional.
If you’re just clocking in to work in another city in the minors, it could pretty easy to lose sight of that, IMO. Add agents and the big-media into the mix, plus the Cards spent the last few years shuttling guys back and forth from Springfield without any real explanations — I mean, we can sit around and figure out the logic of those moves. Not necessarily the guy coming to work who gets a couple of words in his ear and has a game the next day. If someone puts it in a kid’s head that he can measure his improvement by how much the guys on the inside talk about him, well. It’s kind of like measuring HR’s annual review by what happens at the water cooler. It’s dumb, but it’s the kind of thing new, young employees do.
Surprise, the Cardinals simply don’t operate the way other perennial playoff teams operate.
Albert’s even fallen prey to that. He’s told people that there was someone underestimating him in the organization, while said scout (later fired) maintains he noted Albert from the beginning, if not as strongly as later possible. If he’s not immune to jumping to conclusions about the front office, how much more some kid on the rise?
Long story short, I don’t like a whiner either, and I don’t think it’s an excuse, but the situation’s ripe for manipulation and misunderstandings. Unless they’re named A. Reyes, I can see how some of these young impatient guys fall into the trap. By the same token, they wouldn’t be any good in the minors if they weren’t raring to get into the majors, and yesterday.
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 5, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i've got to say
that professional athletes don’t seem to be the most opened minded well-adjusted people in the world in general (not as a rule though). tons of money+a career that lasts about 10 yrs if you’re lucky+a collection of massive competitive egos necessary to drive a person to perform at the highest level every day=something less than the level of civility and professionalism the rest of us need in the workplace. Same goes for management. It just seems like the nature of the beast.
by spencegrif on Dec 5, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, well, change can be a beautiful thing......
I used the word respect in my post. Respecting all of the players cost zero dollars. It might cost you some of your time, it might be uncomfortable to have to say something the player might not want to hear, but so be it. I never mentioned coddling or babying them; that’s not what I mean.
You do know that Theo Epstein and Mark Shapiro meet personally with everyone with the big club at the end of the season-even the players that aren’t coming back, even the minor league call ups-all of them. Players are told the clubs’ plan for them next season at this meeting. It is also done by their assistants at each level with their minor league players. It can and is being done. I firmly believe that the Cardinals ought to consider it, especially if they are intent on growing their own. It ain’t going to hurt them to have the players feel respected. It will be a good investment of their time. It really will.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Dec 5, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
do we have the staff to do that?
Honest question. I still remember our front office going to work right after the WS. They may not have manpower. How many assistants do they have, and how are they allocated year-round? And time is still money. It may not be comparable to the Red Sox’s resources, at all levels. It may be another reason why Tony is so wound up when someone skips the Winter Warmup — how are we to know that’s not when they talk to their players? At team gatherings and while they’re on the field? That scouts and coaches aren’t passing the message along?
The other factor may be that traditionally former Cardinals and the so-called College of Cardinals filled that role.
That said, Aggie would probably be happy to help…
"But listen, and understand: more Molinas are out there. They can't be bargained with. They can't be reasoned with. They don't feel pity, or remorse, or fear." - THT
by Yadi2Second on Dec 5, 2008 11:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Surely we don't have the resources of the Red Sox,
but we have more resources than the Indians do.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Dec 6, 2008 7:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
doesn't matter
sounds important enough that it just needs to be done, and at the beginning of spring training too. we have lots of extra coaches in for ST and each of these guys should have a mentor as long as they are in major league camp.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 6, 2008 11:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I liked this quote
On LaRussa-
MW: After the game he told me, "I was sent back." That was it, that was all I ever spoke to him.
A guy is on the team 2 weeks and the only thing the manager ever says to him is pack your bags.
It almost feels fake because it feeds into every criticism the organization has faced over the last 3 years.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Holy crap
Disgruntled is an understatement.
He’s got to be in the deal. He’s certainly never going to pitch for the Cardinals again after that.
by mojowo11 on Dec 4, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
gotta admit
it was kind of refreshing, seeing a guy speak his mind for once. Seeing grown men dribble platitudes gets old after a while.
I bet that interviewer about crapped his pants when Worrell started going off though… talk about a scoop.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like that the questions are still proffessional
like, he wrote the questions out before hand and just stuck to the script. Mark’s flying off the handle in rage:
MW: “These freaking idiots thought that Jason Isringhausen on one leg was better than me. I could throw the ball backwards better than he could at the end of the season. And yet, who gets the call? God, I just want to punch THE MULLET right in his freaking mouth!!!!!”
Reporter: “So, you have two dogs, a poodle and a chocolate lab. What’s that like being on the road away from them?”
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
LMAO
No kidding — There wasn’t any “Tell me how your really feel about t he organization….” follow up question.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 5, 2008 9:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
LOL, just checked out
the discussion of the Worrell interview at scout.com. Colby’s dad is in rare form. And westcoastbirdwatcher has a new home, apparently.
http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=321&f=2089&t=3533689
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 5, 2008 1:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That is too funny
Multiple posters go on rants about how they are the best Cardinal board out there. That some how they can influence the front office of the Cardinal’s seems laughably to me. I for one hope the FO doesn’t make decisions based upon boards and blogs. I think VEB makes plenty of excellent points but we just don’t have the same level of data as a FO would.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 5, 2008 2:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well there were a few comments here questioning whether the FA considered basic saber things like WAR...
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 5, 2008 4:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Current Lineup:
Here is how I see the current starting 9 lining up:
Rasmus CF
Ankiel LF
Pujols 1B
Ludwick RF
Glaus 3B
Greene SS
Molina C
Pitcher/Kennedy 2B
Kennedy 2B/Pitcher
That lineup doesn’t look half bad if Ankiel can stay healthy, Greene can rebound, the last month of Kennedy’s 08 is a preview of his 09 though even his 08 numbers evenly distributed wouldn’t be half bad.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 9:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think I’d rather have Ankiel’s arm in RF and would order more along OBP, but I like it!
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 10:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Rasmus should start out in left.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
From watching Raz
play in Springfield in ‘07, he is a superior defender to Ank. His arm isn’t as strong as Rick’s but its still pretty damn good. He is much better at covering ground than Ankiel, and can track flyballs better. If he starts, he should be in center.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 4, 2008 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Since Rick is a plus defender
I’d wait to move everyone around until Rasmus is here to stay. You don’t want to give Rasmus the job, have him struggle, and jerk all your regulars around. Considering how well Schumaker played, I wouldn’t be surprised is Rasmus started the season as the 4th OF (getting regular PT at all 3 spots) , and worked his way into the everyday lineup .
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I assume you are talking about
pre-injury Ankiel.
I’d be inclined to keep as much the same for Rasmus during his minors to majors transition as possible.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
You don’t move around a kid who has played brilliantly in CF his entire minor league career and force him to adjust to a new position while adjusting to big league pitching.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 4, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think a CF → RF/LF conversion should be tough for any above-average defender, but I’d rather him be in CF because he projects to be our best CF.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your right
It’s probably not a tough switch. But Raz has historically struggled early on while adjusting to higher level pitching so why add in something he’s not used to on the defensive end? That was my point.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 4, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
LF/RF isn't really a new position
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It is, actually
It’s not like moving from 1B to SS or anything, but the position is played differently. Aside from the obvious changes in how the ball moves (the ball usually curves a ton on balls down the line), there’s also the notion of changing your “rank.” Asking a guy who has never played corner OF in his life to defer to another OF on a fly ball could be troublesome.
I think he’d probably handle it fine, but I don’t see the point. Rasmus is the CF of the future and probably better there than Ank anyway. Plus, Ank played corner OF at the end of last year. Put Ank’s gun in right, slide Luddy over to left. That’s a pretty damn good defensive OF.
by mojowo11 on Dec 4, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As bad as the Mariners org has been
One thing I like is that the had Jones, Snelling and Balentin get used to playing left, right, and center in the minors. Adam Jones would have been the leftfielder last year if Bavasi weren’t so goddamned terrible at his job.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
still think they should have kept him at SS/2B
until he showed he couldn’t play the position.
Might have kept him in AAA a year longer, or two, but it would have been better for him over his full career imho.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 6, 2008 11:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/10/15/634867/best-center-fielders-of-20
Often injured, but -7 field. I still think he could be a plus corner, FWIW.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have a hard time seeing Tony giving him the everday CF job when he has veterans who can play
unless he hits the shit out of the ball during ST.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've seen a lot of defensive #s this offseason
not one has Rick being a + defender in CF. All have him being well below-average. Rasmus belongs in CF.
by chuckb on Dec 4, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But he's fine as the backup CF if Rasmus goes down
or needs a day or two off should he get into a slump or something.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 4, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought he looked pretty good before the injury.
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure he made a few
Edmonds-like catches and gunned down those guys in Coors. But that wasn’t representative of his entire body of work in CF.
Rick made only 4 OF assists in center compared to Schumaker who made 10 overall and 5 in center. Many people only see Rick as a great defender because he made several spectacular plays that, arguably, if Skip or Colby were playing center would not have to have been spectacular.
If Raz is with the big boys next season he is the best CF on the roster. period.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 5, 2008 8:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd perfer we not use assists
as a way to determine how well an outfielder fields. Otherwise, Manny and Soriano would be two of the best OFers out there.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Dec 5, 2008 11:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
we can use it
as long as you consider opportunities etc.
2008 baserunner advances, schumaker vs ankiel, playing in CF:
Name Inn Opps Bases Kills Pct MLB_Rank Schu 552.2 66 40 2 .606 28 Rick 766.1 77 36 4 .468 3
Data from biljamesonline. Lower numbers are better for everything except innings, opportunities and kills.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 5, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's pretty cool
obviously not every base runner advancing is equal, but it’s still quite interesting to look at. who was #1 this year?
by Glowsticks on Dec 5, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
mark kotsay, .434 advance rate
Adam Jones was #2, at .467, so Ankiel just missed being one place higher. Corey patterson was #4, with a .500 advance rate.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 5, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now this is worth knowing about
just so that we can say that Mark Kotsay excels at something!
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 5, 2008 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
I had links to other stats, but this thread is so monstrous it was taking forever to work so I just gave up.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 5, 2008 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's going a little far
those are actual outs that occurred due to the player. The problem is that they are so ridiculously rare, that it’s a very small subset of the player’s ability.
It’s like saying that Looper balked two more times than Piñeiro, so we should DUMP LOOPER NOW or something.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 5, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And what stats have you provided?
“I thought he looked pretty good before the injury”
If we are going to go off how we “thought” players “looked” than I’ll add that I’ve seen both Colby and Rick play in the same ballpark in the minors and from what I’ve seen Rasmus is a better defender to Ankiel as of today, before he has even played a single game at the major league level.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 5, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I liken this as to when
Ichiro was going to play center and Adam Jones was going to play right, the difference isn’t that much.
by JI on Dec 5, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We don't have much data on him as a CF, so the stats don't help much
and we don’t have a game by game defense log (that shows him at say, +5 before he got hurt) that you would with a batting log.
Defensive stats have a long ways to go, so it’s not so bad if you go off your eyes.
by JI on Dec 5, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
And if I go by what I have seen, I put Raz in CF and Ank in RF
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 5, 2008 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
going off what I saw in spring training last year
playing on the same field at the same time, with Rasmus theoretically trying to win a job and ankiel was not, ankiel was far superior. Colby was fast, but he got really, really bad jumps on balls after they were hit and didn’t take very good routes.
Of course that was a year ago, and they are probably both better now than they were then. Colby probably has more potential, since he is definitely much faster, or at least he was before the knee injury, and their arms are about the same.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 5, 2008 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't mind.
But to be honest I’m in love with Ank and want see him prove himself in center before he goes.
by JI on Dec 5, 2008 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rasmus
Glaus
Pujols
Ludwick
Ankiel
Greene
Moina
Pitcher
Kennedy
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Something I haven't seen hit on yet.....
Is that even if Greene struggles with his batting average and doesn’t walk much, having him in the lineup, as an RBI man behind Glaus and possibly Molina. Just having another guy capable of driving in runs, instead of having so many singles hitters in a row at the bottom of the lineup, will be an improvement.
I really think you’ll see Greene perform more on line with his career next year. Playing for a bad team is taxing.
And I’m glad I was wrong about us not being in on any of the quality MI’s.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 4, 2008 10:02 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
HAHA
RISP (2008)
Izturis: 97 ABs/ 23 RBI/ 6 SO/ 0 DP/ .216 BA/ .559 OPS
Greene: 76 ABs/ 23 RBI/ 24 SO/ 4 DP/ .145 BA/ .524 OPS
Khalil Greene was worse than Cesar Izturis last year at driving in runners.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Haha nice find
It’s amazing how bad Greene was last year.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 4, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now I'm confused
I thought we around here usually scoffed at 76 at bats as a small sample.
So, just to throw this out there, his career numbers with risp are:
704 PA, .247, .328, .447, .775
And Izturis is:
845 PA, .246, .306, .318, .624
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The point was that
somehow Khalil Greene would be an improvement over Cesar as some run driving in machine. He was an awful offensive player last year and unless he has a big career rebound, he’s going to be very little better than Cesar was with less defense.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well.....
He did drive in the same number of runs (with RISO) as Izturis last year, in 21 less AB’s.
But that doesn’t account for anything, right?
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 4, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It means his teammates were in better scoring poistion than Izturis'.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You sure about that?
Weren’t the Cardinals one of the best teams at getting on base? Hard to imagine the Padres were better at getting into scoring position.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Izturis hit behind the pitcher
A guy who hits with everyday players in front of him will almost always drive in more runs than a guy who has the pitcher hitting directly in front of him regardless of the quality of his team.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But don't pitchers often bunt guys over to second?
Which would put them into scoring position, right?
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OBP
of #5 hitter vs OBP of #8 hitter.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who hit in front of Greene in SD?
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Jim Edmonds
and Kevin Kouzmanoff.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Edmonds was there for for only 20-30 games
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Right
but Greene only played 105 games and when he was batting in the #6 spot early in the year, Edmonds was in front of him.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Edmonds at his worst was still a better hitter than a pitcher
…and even then it was only ~20% of the time or so.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What argument are you having?
I thought the point was the pitcher bunting the runner over to 2nd, which would thus be the OBP of the #7 hitter in a LaRussa lineup.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My argument
Fewer baserunners = fewer chances to drive in runs = fewer RBIs
Pitcher =bad hitter = bad at getting on base = driven in less
therefore Izturus probably had very few RBIs chances (possible the fewest of any non-leadoff hittter in the NL) because he hit behind the pitcher
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
regarding the number of baserunners question
the data is available at Baseball-reference under “game logs” and “splits”. I compiled it into a table and posted it below (silly SB nation threading was cutting off the numbers because this thread is too deep).
Short answer, izturis had many more opportunities (18) with men on 2nd and 3rd than greene, yet greene had almost 1/3 more RBI’s in fewer overall plate appearances. Greene did have 3 more PA’s with men on 3rd, lt 2 outs, and had the same # of RBI’s as izturis in that situation.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, I just got LaRussa'd
should be OBP of the #7 hitter.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No it doesn't.....
Reread my post. Ridiculous.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 4, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He was a worse hitter with RISP
if more Padres were on 3rd than Cardinals were (since RISP is 2nd or 3rd) Greene could sac fly FC them in for RBIs despite being the better hitter.
Reconsider what you wrote. Ridiculous.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You are making a BIG assumption.....
With the runners on 3rd vs runners on 2nd bit. Guessing you can’t back that up at all?
Greene will be a better RBI man b/c of his slugging. Period. If you have two bad hitters, but one has power, he is the better RBI man. Simplified, yes, but a pretty true statement.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 4, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They had a .031 slugging percentage difference
with RISP last year. You’re making an equally large assumption that’s all attributable to that.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His career numbers are great for a Petco SS, IMO. I think it’s pessimistic to say that he needs a “career rebound” – he only has one (1) bad year.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 11:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I take it you are not a fan of this deal?
And that you favor bringing back Cesar Izturis again next year?
He was an awful offensive player last year
True, and when park adjusted he put up exactly 3 points worse an OPS than Izturis did last year. He’s not Cesar defensively, few are, but he’s a career 95 OPS+ player. If he hits and OPS+ of 90 next year he’s an improvement, even with marginally worse defense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In other words
If he Greene was horrible last season, and he was, then he’s probably not going to get worse next year, and if he gets only marginally better, he’s STILL and upgrade over Cesar
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He'd have to improve by about 20 runs
Izturis was not terrible last year glove included. It’s well, well within Greene’s range of possibilities to do so, but it’s not a given either.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 4, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
given that he played
just over 100 games last year, I’d say improving by 20 runs is well within the realm of possibility.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Technically playing in only 100 games probably makes his season look better last year haha
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 4, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's probably not going to get worse
famous last words. :D
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
You really think that he can perform worse than he did last year? 2008 was by far the worst season in his career — he’s been a league average or better SS with the bat in every season prior. What’s he going to do, come out and hit .200/.265/.300 next year? I highly, HIGHLY doubt that. He’s probably the best buy low candidate out there and he’s entering his final year before free agency. If he doesn’t play well this year, he’s not going to get a great deal of money in free agency, so everything points to him having a better year next year that in 2008.
Show me some evidence that he’s going to get worse…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Show me some evidence that he’s going to get worse…
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's not evidence....
Do you really think he’s going to get that degree worse next year? If you do, then you have a really asinine view of the world.
2008 is more than likely a statistical outlier than it is a trend.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You assume he is going to get better
simply because at one time in his career he was better. He fell completely off a cliff in 2008. That has to count for something. Maybe he comes all the way back, maybe he comes half the way back. But, he is just as likely to be as bad or worse than he is to be a little bit better or all the way better.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't mean that it's not a good gamble.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
But, he is just as likely to be as bad or worse than he is to be a little bit better or all the way better.
I couldn’t disagree more with you on that.
Regardless it’s a good gamble for the team to go after him for one season. Hell, maybe he has a great year and ends up as Type A! considering that they are three year factors, his 2007 would help him if he had a decent 2008.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not true.
Listen, smart people have done lots of work with projecting performance. One year ago is slightly more important than two years ago and about twice as important as three years ago. Throw in some aging controls and you’ve got a projection system that’s about as good as you’ll get. You’re flatly overreacting to one bad season. It matters. but it’s not the median performance level you should expect.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You are right
smart people have done lots of work projecting performance. I’m not arguing that you CAN’T statistically back up a claim that he will get better next year. That he will become 90% of the player he was 2 years ago.
But the latest data point we have is Greene falling off a cliff. That doesn’t give him a death sentence but it also gives credence to the notion that he is just as likely to continue on that downward path as he is to rebound.
The current trend is downward. Past data shows that an average will be higher than the lowest point. But the trend is downward and until there is more data to stop such a trend, at best you can assume it flattens out.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that works when you are projecting "all players"
When you are trying to figure out what one player will do, projection systems don’t work well. It’s an incorrect application of the theory to try use an algorithm to make a point about whether he’ll bounce back or not. Algorithms are dumb, they don’t know if he needs glasses or was playing with a toothache or had a baby or whatever.
I think you can find enough in the data to support a conclusion that he was unlucky in ‘08, but you can’t just ignore 2008.
Recommend you go back and re-read what Tango had to say about the Marcel system when it was first published; he goes into all of this in detail.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who's ignoring 2008?
Unless you define why a player is significantly different from the population of players that came before him, the algorithm is as good as anything.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It wasn’t “one time in his career”, it was the entire remainder of his MLB career – four (4) good years compared to one (1) bad year.
It’s also virtually impossible that there’s equal likelihood between way worse, worse, better, and way better. If you were betting your own money on one of those four outcomes with even money payout, which would you choose? Or how about even worse vs better?
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it is a sideways move
yet another year of a stopgap SS. If Greene plays well, they’ll try to resign him and he’ll want more than he is making now…thus we will be overpaying for a SS nearing the ‘too old of the position’ age.
If he plays like he did last year, he’s Cesar Izturis.
It’s ok for a one year deal but it doesn’t really help the Cardinals going forward. Are they just going to keep punting until Kozma might be ready?
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What other options are there?
Jack Wilson? Older, has a lot of money left due him, would cost more to acquire (and he’s not available any more either
Rafael Furcal? We’d have to outbid just about every team with a SS need to get him and he’s going to want at least a 3 year deal, if not 5 at $15M per year….and he’s 31 years old….
Izturis again? You’re assuming that he’s going to put up 2008’s numbers again and not get injured. That’s a bigger risk than Greene returning to form…
There simply aren’t a lot of options to improve the SS position next year, so this move strikes me as one that made a lot of sense. We filled a need without taking on a great deal more payroll, losing good prospects, or offering a longterm contract that could become and albatross….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd rather lose good prospects
for a good, young SS.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Like who?
Name some names please….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A few
Reid Brignac
Chris Nelson
Both are blocked from above and below.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And both...
…have severely disappointed as they moved to the upper ranks of the minor leagues. No thanks on both.
The minors are really thin when it comes to premier MI prospects right now. It’s a down cycle.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 4, 2008 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so
you would gamble on a guy with no major league AB’s that hasn’t hit well at AA or AAA over a guy who has one year remaining on his contract, and is one year removed from hitting 27 homers while playing in the best pitchers park in the bigs for half his games?
You, my friend, are crazy or a really bad gambler.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, I would
because Khalil Greene does nothing to solve the Cardinals long term SS problems and he costs them money they could spend on pitching rather than a player who was worse than our own not-so-good SS last year.
Brignac is 22 and would probably be starting in Tampa (or at least be up with the team) if not for the Bartlett trade.
Nelson is 22 and missed a year because of Tommy John surgery.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Spending money on pitching is usually a bad investment
Considering this team spent money on Loshe, Pineiro, and Franklin, I’d much rather they spent it on a position player.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But why pay $6.5 M
for a swing for the fences, strikeout a ton, play slightly above average defensive SS with the last name Greene when we’ve already got one?
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Up to this year
Tyler Greene’s numbers at High A and AA would project to be worse than Khalil Greene’s 2008, and he’s not as good defensively as Khalil is.
Name a pitcher that we could acquire for $6.5M for one season that would fit into our starting rotation. You’re presenting a ton of false choices.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You were the one that said we needed a
starter for $6.5 M.
There is still money in the budget for starting pitching, although damaged slightly now by Greene’s contract. I can almost guarantee that $4 M is still set aside for a starter.
If Tyler Greene is the option (and I don’t think he is), that’s $10 M to be spent on starting pitching.
I’m not going to defend positions you made up.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because Khalilibot is likely to be much better this year than other one.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Both seem plausible explanations
I don’t know how much this will add to the discussions. But it seems like HL is suggesting that the cause of decline is systematic (due to aging or injuries) while fourstick et. al. are arguing that the decline is random (thus regression to the mean is possible this upcoming year). Because causality and controlling for other factors is so difficult, we might never know the truth even over time, because we are talking about an individual career and a relatively few # of years.
Personally, I lean towards the later theory since my unsubstantiated hunch is that systematic drop offs at 30 are rarer than a down year. I think if I weren’t so laze and actually plotted average decline trends for SS’s that I might have a better factual basis to go one way of the other.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Dec 4, 2008 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You don't know if either of those guys does either
Brignac and Nelson could come up and put up numbers similar to their minor league projections — then you’d be bitching about acquiring these guys who haven’t proven anything.
I guess we should go with Brendan Ryan, Felipe Lopez (who probably won’t be much cheaper than Greene), or Brian Barden at SS, just so we have enough money to sign, say, Braden Looper? That’s a fallacy…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're right
they could come up and do exactly what you described. At 22 years old, they could spend the next 3 years in our farm system making next to nothing and becoming nothing more than Brendan Ryan.
Where as Khalil Greene will cost $6.5 M this year and this year alone. Then he’s either gone or taking up more than $6.5 M/year in our payroll to be our everyday SS.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A one year 6.5m deal for a guy with Greene's upside is a fantastic deal
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're right -- we should be looking farther ahead.
We should be looking at 2011 right now instead of 2009. In fact, I think we should just not have a SS next year, take an out every time his spot comes up in the order, and put a net out on the field where the SS should be playing. I mean, we really don’t need one next year right?
BTW, if Greene puts up a 95-100 OPS+, I’d have no problem paying him $6.5M per year for 3-4 years, and you wouldn’t either.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He isn't going to take a pay cut
which is what you suggest.
If he does put up those numbers, he’ll be a strong candidate in a very weak SS market in 2010.
He’ll get more than $6.5/year.
I think your tone is hilarious, keep it up.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take the draft picks too.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 4, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You have to offer players arbitration
first, before you can get draft picks.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And the player has to be good.
Well, “good” as defined by Elias.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If we offer him arbitration
and he stays for another year, doesn’t that solve your problem for another year at about $8M or so? Which is what Jack Wilson will make this season? Yes, and yes.
We would offer him arbitration, and if he has a good year there’s a good chance he’d be Type B and an outside chance he’d be Type A.
Also, I reserve the right to stuff your face with crow next year if he’s anywhere near as good as he’s been prior to 2008, especially since Izturis will end up being a bench player somewhere.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
$8 M
is a lowball number. If he puts up the numbers you suggest, he can argue Derek Jeter, Micheal Young, Jimmy Rollins, etc.
Very few players get paycuts in arbitration. Especially in their first taste of FA.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who thinks Greene's going to put up numbers that good?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stuff my face with crow
why, I didn’t say he WILL be a bad player. I said he is just as likely to be bad as good and that it is a sideways move.
He could be great, I’m not saying he can’t.
And that would fit right in with this combative tone you’ve taken about this.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I said he is just as likely to be bad as good
Which isn’t true
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“I said he is just as likely to be bad as good”
How can you possibly think that?
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
why don't you both grow a pair
and put your money where your mouth is, eh???
"so if you can’t understand what someone else is saying why don’t you just shut up about it instead of being a jerk-off?"
"i’d challenge you to offer me alternatives which would convey the same level of meaning without being even more wordy and verbose."
by baw on Dec 5, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he'd have to be unbelievable next year
considering how bad he was last year to be a type-A free agent. He’ll be type B, if that.
by chuckb on Dec 4, 2008 8:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who would you give up for either Brignac or Nelson?
I’m sure you’re not the only person who noticed those guys are blocked, yet neither have been dealt, so I’m wondering what the asking price (or offering) might be?
And considering the scarcity of young good hitting shortstops in the league, I’d assume it’d cost a bit and I doubt Worrell and a PTBNL would get either of those guys. Being that SD was desperate to move payroll made Greene so inexpensive.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 4, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think that Brignac is going anywhere
If he were to get dealt for two minor league relief pitchers I’d seriously question how good he actually is.
My guess is that Nelson could be had for a good pitching prospect (Colorado never has enough of those), or a decent outfield prospect. I’m not sure that the Rockies would just give him away, however, considering how hard they’ve been trying to find a decent second baseman over the last decade or so.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, the Rays are more likely to deal Bartlett than Brignac.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 4, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bartlett's value has never been higher
and it’s not likely to hold steady
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
as they say. The only thing is the MI free agents in 2010 are even worse. Aside from Bobby Crosby, Brian Roberts, and maybe Freddy Sanchez, there really is no one at either 2B or SS to shake even a pathetically mangled stick at. I’m a fan of this Greene signing just based on lack of options, but it’s crystal clear that we’re going to need a long term solution at at least one of those positions. That’s one of the reasons I rep Kelly Johnson so much. He’s 27, signed through 2011 (though arb eligible), and more than pretty good. We’re going to have to give up something to get someone worthwhile, but in the absence of someone particularly worthwhile, I think 1 not-that-expensive year of Khalil Greene and 2 surplus pitchers is a good use of resources for the time being.
"The Mollusk" makes me want to rail LSD crystals off my friends' sternum. Rage."
by ICEYhawtSTUNNAZ on Dec 4, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
76 ABs is a tiny sample – and in this one Greene still has a higher RBI per PA ratio, for whatever that’s worth :) The subject of RBI/RISP itself presumes that there’s a notable and consistent difference between a player’s normal and RISP output from year to year. I’m not personally shutting my ears to the idea, but I have not yet seen a large-sample approach that shows it.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Key words.....
LAST. YEAR.
You telling me Greene isn’t a better run producer than Izturis?
I see you are back to following me around. Have fun with that.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 4, 2008 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He made more outs
than Izturis did in those situations. 9 times out of 10, more outs equals less runs batted in.
Izturis batted 9th most of the season, meaning he had the pitcher and Molina to drive in. Greene batted 6th, giving him guys that were generally better atheletes and in better scoring position than Izturis saw.
If Izturis had batted 6th all year, he’d have been just as terrible but probably would have driven in more runs.
And that’s sad to say for a hitter: “Yeah, well…I was only marginally better than Izturis in a counting stat because he batted in the pitcher’s spot!”
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah but who cares since last year doesn't represent Greene's true ability.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It might and it might not
But I don’t want to discount it either way. That would be like ignoring Adam Kennedy’s 2007 going into 2008. His career wasn’t that bad but last year was horrid. If Greene lives up to the rest of his career than it is a good deal and we might sign him for another few years otherwise it was a one year flyer even if it was a tad expensive.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that's the thing
with just point we can’t tell if it was just an anomaly based on injuries or whether it was a career decline. One of the top comps Greene has is Tony Batista. He went from power hitter in Montreal to being out of baseball two years later.
Sometimes, players just stop being good.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wOBA+ 2004-2007: 103, 99, 100, 100. wOBA+ 2008: 82.
That would seem like a very steep career decline for a 28 year-old.
Any links to age effects by position out there?
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm trying to find a site that gives wOBA+
I don’t want to have to calculate them all myself, but I’d be interestes in Adam Kennedy, 2002-2005, 2006.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
www.statcorner.com has wOBA, wOBA* (park-adjusted), and wOBA+ (park and league-adjusted). Sort by the latter two and look at Pujols’ rank from year to year :) I think they only go back to 2003, BTW.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm, looking at that
it appears he follows the same type of curve Kennedy does:
Greene
103
99
100
100
82
Kennedy
98
98
98
91
81
Kennedy rebounded a bit to 93 wOBA+ this past season but very few of us were thrilled with his offense, sans that Cubs game of course. :D
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It’s an individual – thus small – but not necessarily unfair comparison. Kennedy was 30 years when he started declining, though, and he did go from 98 to 91 to 81 whereas Greene fell straight off the cliff at the age of 28.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Greene has always performed significant;y worse at Petco than on the road
It wouldn’t surprise me if the park got into his head the same way Safeco got into Mike Cameron’s.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's pretty rare that it happens
after they have a career year like he did in 2007, are still young, and are entering a walk year.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's no way anyone would take Greene on if it did.
If Greene were truly that bad he would be untradable.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If people thought he was as good as 2007
the Padres wouldn’t have simply gotten 2 relief prospects for him from the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Giants, Dodgers, Tigers, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Reds all need shortstops and he is likely the cheapest ‘name’ out there.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If they get Motte or Perez
it won’t really be just a relief prospect. It’ll be a potential closer and possibly the best reliever in their pen.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It isn't
The release said it was two relievers that weren’t on the MLB roster at the end of the year — both of those guys were.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's no reason to overpay for a guy who had a shitty year
there pretty much a 100% chance that he’ll be better than he was last year, that doesn’t mean he’ll bounce all the way back, it means he just has to beat a .260 OBP and I like those odds.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm confused by this
2 minor league relievers (who weren’t on the 40 man roster) are right in line with what Khalil Greene is worth? If that is the case, then obviously other teams don’t think he can bounce back. If they did, he’d be a much safer bet than giving Furcal and/or Hudson 4 years to play a MIF position.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll reserve valuation judgement after I know the names of the relievers AND the percentage of his salary that we’re taking.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
then obviously other teams don’t think he can bounce back. If they did, he’d be a much safer bet than giving Furcal and/or Hudson 4 years to play a MIF position.
No, and no. Those guys are much safer bets, but they are much more expensive and there is much more financial risk involved. You have to consider other team’s situations. How many are willing to take on salary? How many are interested in a one year stopgap?
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They're dumping salary
They wanted it done by the start of the winter meetings.
Done and Done.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
did you just not follow him?
Hey pot … meet kettle! Both of you could stand to grow up a little bit.
by chuckb on Dec 4, 2008 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"if Greene struggles with his batting average and doesn’t walk much"
How can you be a capable RBI man if he doesn’t hit the ball and doesn’t take walks? The implication is that he’s just making outs, which rarely drive in runs. Unless he’s going to hit a sac fly every at bat, your statements care mutually exclusive.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure it's better.
My point was things like “capable RBI man” are meaningless and worse, obfuscate the real value of a player.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Understood, but shrug. I abhor RBI as an individual stat, but still just take it to mean that people are referring to power when they say “RBI man.” Accepting it without protest may perpetuate the high weighting of individual RBIs. I think the point resonates better with your second phrasing.
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ding, ding, ding
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 4, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He
was terrible last year. Let’s just hope it was an aberration
by eglasier on Dec 4, 2008 10:44 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good buy low for STL.
I had a piece going up tomorrow at BTB about how he was the perfect buy low candidate. Mo and company beat me to it.
by R.J. Anderson on Dec 4, 2008 11:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
as long as
the two relievers aren’t either perez or motte, then I’m happy with the deal…
http://www.redbirdramblings.wordpress.com
Mo, please go get Nick Punto!
waiting for the 2009 season to begin and colby rasmus to patrol centerfield!
by cards4life on Dec 4, 2008 11:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
What am I supposed to be looking at
on Redbird Ramblings?
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
it’s just a plug….I gotta get to class in a couple of minutes, but I’ll have something up within the next couple of hours I think. it’s just a great way to get traffic to the old blog. sorry if I caused any inconvenience to anyone.
Mo, please go get Nick Punto!
waiting for the 2009 season to begin and colby rasmus to patrol centerfield!
by cards4life on Dec 4, 2008 12:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, ok
I thought there was a story about the trade there.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
post the link in your sig like HL does
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
actually
I don’t know how to do that…I’ve tried it several times but I could not get it to work.
Mo, please go get Nick Punto!
waiting for the 2009 season to begin and colby rasmus to patrol centerfield!
by cards4life on Dec 4, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh
I think I got it now…
check out my blog: Redbird Ramblings
Mo, please go get Nick Punto!
waiting for the 2009 season to begin and colby rasmus to patrol centerfield!
by cards4life on Dec 4, 2008 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The post has been updated to say that the two pitchers to be traded were not on the 40 man at end of year.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
by Red Blazer on Dec 4, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2009 Projection roundup
Khalil Greene
Bill James
581 ABs
36 2Bs
19 HRs
75 RBIs
135:39 K/BB
.241 AVG
Marcels
436 ABs
25 2Bs
15 HRs
55 RBIs
98: 30 K/BB
.239 AVG
Zips aren’t up yet, unless someone has them.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Adding to Marcels:
.291 OBP
.408 SLG
.700 OPS
.170 ISO
.301 wOBA
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think Marcel is park-adjusted either, which represents a huge difference:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?season=2008
Petco is 0.796 on runs, Busch is 0.943
by astrostl on Dec 4, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But he played in 3 hitter friendly parks
for most of his road games, Coors, SBC Park and Chase Field. Which, could be inflating his road numbers as much as Petco is deflating his home numbers.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Coors, SBC Park and Chase Field. Which, could be inflating his road numbers as much as Petco is deflating his home numbers.
Uhh no?
1) Sample size. There’s no way playing half a dozen games at Coors can inflated his road totals in the same fashion.
2) SBC park is not a hitters park.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also,
Wrigley Field
Great American Ballpark
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 4, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In his career
small samples:
Wrigley – 72 PA (.636 OPS)
GAB – 56 PA (.973 OPS)
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What's his career at busch?
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 4, 2008 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, who cares, what's he have, ten ABs?
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 4, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ha, yeah
probably. The park has only been around 3 years and he’s been injured a bunch during that time.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
23PAs 23ABs
.174 .174 .522 .696
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Small samples are worse than no data
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Uh, yes
Top PAs per park (outside of Petco) – Career
Coors – 181 (1.049 OPS)
SBC – 149 (.902 OPS)
Chase – 126 (.883 OPS)
Dodger – 116 (.626 OPS)
And SBC is a hitter’s park for RHB.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think I like this move...
Greene’s defense has been above average for the last few years (save ’05) Check his RZR at http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/index.php?playerId=1826
And his away splits from 04-07 were .280/.347 BA/OBP with 11 HRs. Even if you include 2008, which we all hope was an aberration- and if his hand is back to 100% probably was- his away splits were still .269/.330 with 9.5 HRs.
I agree this is a high upside pickup, but considering that we’re replacing good defense with good defense (a little drop off, admittedly) I think the risk factor is being a little overblown.
by BustaCard on Dec 4, 2008 11:58 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I am somewhat concerned about this deal
Not because I don’t think that Greene can succeed, but more so because I am concerned that with his addition, the Cardinals could become very home run dependent to score runs.
by JMedwick on Dec 4, 2008 12:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
And htat's a bad thing because?...
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ask the White Sox
When you don’t hit them, you lose. You become slow and clunky. You’re waiting around all day for the big inning. And with LaRussa, he isn’t going to press the issue to manufacture runs. Over the years, he’s lost his wild streak of doing that and has stayed risk averse to taking the bat out of any hitter’s hands.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You are so incredibly wrong
When you don’t hit them, you lose.
Hitting a home runs is the best way to manufacture a run. Teams that hit a lot of home runs almost always are among the league leaders in runs scored.
You’re waiting around all day for the big inning
It’s best not to force things and make stupid mistakes that cost you outs and give you fewer chances to score.
LaRussa, he isn’t going to press the issue to manufacture runs. Over the years, he’s lost his wild streak of doing that and has stayed risk averse to taking the bat out of any hitter’s hands.
One of my favorite things about him.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
HR Leaders
2008: White Sox – 6th in Runs
2007: Brewers – 11th in Runs
2006: White Sox – 3rd in Runs!
2005: Rangers – 3rd in Runs!
Winning percentages
2008 – .546
2007 – .512
2006 – .556
2005 – .488
I’m still waiting for why I’m wrong that teams who rely on HRs have trouble winning when they don’t hit them.
Find me how many times those teams I listed scored off of any other hits outside of HRs and I’ll retract my statement.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
teams that don't rely on the home run
also have a lot of trouble winning when they don’t hit them.
by DanUpBaby on Dec 4, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True
Balance is always the key with any offense. My concern with acquiring a strikeout prone, obp-hole, who hits home runs is that Greene makes the team more one-dimensional, which is concerning for a team where you already have a corner infielder (Glaus) and two outfielders (Ludwick and Ankiel) who derive much of their value from the home run. How many lineup slots can you fill with players like Greene and Ankiel before the team becomes dependent on the HR to score runs.
by JMedwick on Dec 4, 2008 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In a perfect world
It would have been nice to get a SS that was a high OBP leadoff-type, but I don’t think that animal was available on the trade market. Glaus knows how to take a walk and Ankiel and Ludwick weren’t terrible at it last year either.
by mikedallas45 on Dec 4, 2008 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wrong
Getting on base and scoring is what matters with a true offense. You will find a good correlation with HR leaders and leaders in runs score in nearly every season
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting
Though:
A. Greene doesn’t get on base;
B. Has no speed; and
C. Doesn’t score many runs.
So, back to my original point, Greene is a one dimensional player offensively and I think brings the club as a whole closer to being on-average a more one-dimensional club which is reliant on the HR because of the absence of other offensive skill sets.
by JMedwick on Dec 4, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
reliant on the HR because of the absence of other offensive skill sets.
Who cares about other skill sets when you can hit a crapload of homers?
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He hit 10 last year
and 15 in most years outside of his one career year.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm arguing that there are only two "dimensions" that really matter
In oder of importance
1) Getting on base
2) Hitting the ball out of the park
If you can do one or the other you’re probably a good offensive player, if you can do both you’re probably an all-star.
As to Greene, Petco depresses his number and has maked his power. He had repeatedly slugged .500 on the road. Granted Grenne won’t probably slug .500. But if he hits .270/.320/.460 he’s not a great hitter, but he would be a pretty good hitter for a shortstop. And, defense being equal, if take the guy who OBPs .320 with power over the guy with the .320 OBP who doesn’t have any power every single time regardless of how often his teammates homer.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and that came playing in PETCO
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn’t score many runs.
He actually scores an average number of runs for a guy that hits down in the order, doesn’t play for a great offensive team, and plays in a crappy offensive park.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So let's trade Ank...
And give Barton and Mather his PT. Should be able to at least get a LOOGY+ from the Jays or somebody… Ank is the only one of our volume HR/SO guys who doesn’t also draw a great number of walks (which I think goes a long way to balancing out the high SO totals).
by BustaCard on Dec 4, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Name some players who are really good offensive players and don't hit many homeruns...
Greene has zero AVG and BB value, I agree. But that’s not the case for Glaus, Ludwick, and Ankiel. All have significant BB skills and above-average AVGs.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and none play SS...
FIrst off, Ank does not have above average ‘BB skills’, though many posters seem to think he’s developing them- which he probably is. Second, you’re comparing two OFers and a 3B to a SS. Not fair from the start. And Greene’s 04-07 away splits were .280/.347 BA/OBP with 11HRs. That is way more than “zero AVG…”.
by BustaCard on Dec 4, 2008 2:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His away splits also
were in some friendly ballparks as well.
This is back to the Matt Holliday argument.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think I'm on your side here.
I was trying to disprove the notion that the addition of one player will kill this team’s offensive balance.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh...right
I agree wholeheartedly in that case…
by BustaCard on Dec 4, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re: "Ank does not have above average ‘BB skills’ "
2008 BB/PA
NL average: 8.8 percent
2008 NL CF: 8.29
Rick ankiel: 9.1
Looks above average to me.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Something is backwards here
Is that PA/BB?
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 3:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
percent
he said percent
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
42 BB in 463 PA
42/463 = .0907 or 9.1 percent
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 4, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Giles' power gets killed by PETCO, but ok.
My point is that most good offensive players hit homeruns. They are a good thing. Equally productive players who don’t hit homeruns are much rarer (Ichiro, Mauer, etc.)
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What you should have said
Is that you can name 3 good offensive players that hit above average home runs for every 1 good offensive player that doesn’t…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Let me rephrase...
You can name 3 good offensive players that hit above average home runs for every 1 good offensive player that doesn’t…
;)
Hitting homeruns should NEVER count against a player. The only argument, and it’s an overrated one, is that a team full of HR-ONLY players leads to imbalance and inconsistent scoring. But scoring often is ten times as important as scoring consistently.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
scoring often vs. scoring consistently
Mind explaining the difference you are getting at?
by JMedwick on Dec 4, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think what he is saying is if you score often you also score consistantly
by bearcatcardfan on Dec 4, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Scoring offten, scoring consistently, and scoring alot
Can be 3 very different things.
by JMedwick on Dec 4, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
These are things
You need to know if your scoring at home, or even if your just by yourself.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Dec 4, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I define scoring often as total number of runs.
Scoring consistently is the distribution of those runs. Scoring 800 runs is obviously better than 600 runs. And scoring 5 runs every game is better than scoring 10 alternated with 0.
So given that a team will score X runs, scoring them consistently is good. But scoring an additional 50 runs beats the pants off of any improvement in consistency.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To further complicate the discussions
The importance of offensive consistency (e.g. small variance of runs/game) might also depend on the importance of pitching/defense consistency. I think the goal is to elevate the median runs scored over the median runs allowed.
But I am agreeing with you. Adding 50 runs above any existing run distribution can only help and not hurt. I just wonder about what the ideal run/game distribution over an entire season might be.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Dec 4, 2008 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ichiro Suzuki
2002-2004.
2005-2007.
What are we trying to prove here?
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
2007 Dustin Predroia
I don’t know what we’re proving but this game is harder than I thought.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That's one guy
ONE! He also happens to be a pretty rare talent. For him, I can name 5 other offensive players that play the same position whoa re as good or better in every single year who hit a lot of home runs.
I guess you could look for the middle infield Ichiro and pay him accordingly, or we could just have Greene for a year at $6.5M. I know which one of those is easier to find…..
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not even sure what we are arguing
what’s ‘average number of HRs’.
No one is saying you shouldn’t hit homeruns.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That is exactly what you're saying
when you say that Greene isn’t any better than Izturis — sure he is, he hits more home runs and gets on base at nearly the same clip.
You don’t even know what your original argument was anymore do you? ;-)
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I said he wasn't any better
than Izturis, offensively he wasn’t. Defensively, he wasn’t.
He can be better, but he wasn’t last season. We are spending $4 M more this year to find out.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To find out?
How do you know Izturis will be any good? How do we know Pujols will be any good. It’s all a crapshoot with probabilities. Get over it. The best prediction we have is that Greene will be much better than his 2008 numbers, both raw and park-adjusted. If you disagree or claim we have no idea what to expect, then you are just wrong.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Which has been my point all along
You’re being overly pessimistic for no good reason whatsoever.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know that Izturis will be any good
in fact, he probably won’t.
I don’t want Cesar Izturis back.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So we should do what then?
leave an empty hole out there? Play Brendan Ryan, who’s about as good as Khalil defensively but can’t hit? Play Brian Barden, who might hit well, but his defense is atrocious? Sign Felipe Lopez, who might be worse with the bat and will be worse with the glove, and will cost around what Izturis cost last year?
I don’t understand you’re argument — you don’t like Greene, but your only solutions are two minor leaguers with no major league experience? Would you rather have Julio Lugo?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't dislike Greene
but I believe there should be temperament on this belief that the healing powers of the Birds on the Bats will return him to form.
We gave away nothing for him, which is great. We took on a tad more payroll than we should for a SS who wasn’t very good last year offensively.
But we still haven’t solved our SS problems longterm and knowing the way the Cardinals operate, instead of using their OF depth to acquire a longterm SS, this will probably be it.
I hope I’m wrong.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't this move make it easier to trade OF depth for a long term solution?
I think it does — you can look at players at the AA level now and not have to worry about them having to start in 2009. They could have a year to develop, or come up for a cup of coffee when rosters expand so we can see what they can do.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
This is where you miss the point:
We took on a tad more payroll than we should for a SS who wasn’t very good last year offensively.
You shouldn’t judge a player based on his 2008 season. You should judge him on what the most logical expectation of 2009 is. 2008 is only part of that projection.
A better sentence would have been:
We took on a player making less than you’d expect for a good-fielding shortstop with an expected 80 to 85 OPS+.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I agree with what SKY has said....
How is the really a bad deal?
by ICbirdfan on Dec 4, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you are arguing with
yourself. I believe all HL is saying is that Khalil Greene last year was no better than Izturis yet you say he is a better player. Well last year didn’t prove that. I don’t like talking for people but maybe all he is saying is that we shouldn’t count on Khalil to “revert to form” like it is absolutely going to happen. I don’t think he is arguing, just making a case that he might not be Khalil of 07.
"It is easy to be brave from a safe distance." - Aesop
by OKCardsfan on Dec 4, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Greene is a better player
His prior seasons and his projection for 2009 are better than Izturis’ prior seasons and 2009 projection. That is the definition of a better player.
I never said he’d be the Khalil of 2007, but as Sky pointed out below, if he’s an 85 OPS+ player next year, which is easily in the realm of possibility, then he’s a 2.5 WAR player at SS. There are very few 3+ WAR SS in the MLB, so he’s potentially, and probably, a much better player than Izturis.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Khalil Greene was a better player
than Izturis in 07. He was not in 08. That is all HL is saying. He also said we are paying 4 mil to find out in 09 if we got the 07 or 08 or in the middle somewhere Greene. There really is no argument here. It is HL just looking at it from a different angle. What happens if Khalil is worse than 08? It seems to be shrugged off like it won’t happen. What wrong with at least asking the question?
"It is easy to be brave from a safe distance." - Aesop
by OKCardsfan on Dec 4, 2008 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The same person making that argument
Is also saying that we should trade for a player like Reid Brignac because he’s young and talented, supposedly, and that he’s cost controlled for a number of years, making him a long term solution.
That’s being more predictive than anything I’ve said about Greene.
The facts, as they say, are not with you. All you can do is look at the projection metrics and feel that Greene has to make some sort of improvement in 2009. Nearly all factors point to that. Even a pessimistically modest improvement makes him a better player than Izturis.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I would hope he would be better
than Izturis, for $4 M/year more and costing 2 prospects.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Let's see what Izturis signs for this off-season.
It will likely be more than $2MM and might be as much as Greene’s salary. Both are underrated.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Or he can
punch another metal box and not play at all. Predictions, as they say, aren’t facts. I don’t know what’s really going on here. I don’t understand why you must belittle a person because he doesn’t agree with you?Again this has nothing to do with Reid Brignac but what happens if Khalil Greene plays like he did this year. Why does that have to be shrugged off saying he will improve don’t worry about it? In regards to Brignac, Heaven’s to Betsy somebody actually comes up with a long-term idea at SS whos name isn’t Khalil Greene. This has become very petty.
"It is easy to be brave from a safe distance." - Aesop
by OKCardsfan on Dec 4, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he repeats his 2008 performance
How does that hurt the Cardinal organization? Even if he’s that bad, he still plays above average defense and is only here for one season — then he’s gone. If he’s any better we might get a sandwich pick out of him if he leaves. He’s the ultimate buy low/sell high candidate.
If there’s a 50% chance that he’s going to be better next year, then I think you have to make that gamble because he’s not going to hurt the organization if he doesn’t improve.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Opportunity cost
is one way he hurts them.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Who do you want? Who will be better, both long- and short-term than Greene?
And please consider cost.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Minnesota yearly
has low HR totals, high run scored totals. The Angels in 2007 were the same way. The Dodgers were doing it in 2006.
We are filling the team with all or nothing guys (Greene, Glaus, Ludwick, Ankiel) who aren’t particularly good baserunners. Throw in Molina as a bad baserunner an the pitchers slot and 6 of the 9 slots are filled with swing for the fences, slow on the basepath hitters.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll wait to see
who’s actually in the 2009 lineup before I start panicking. One or more of those all-or-nothing guys won’t be Cardinals by April.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 4, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Glaus, Ludwick, and Ankiel
Aren’t all for nothing guys. Glaus and Ludwick get on base pretty frequently via the free pass, and Ankiel has shown great improvement in getting on base over the last 18 months.
Rob Deer is an all for nothing guy, and Greene may be as well, but lumping those other three in there because they hit a lot of homers and don’t steal bases is a foolish statement.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Clearly Deer is in another catigory from Glaus and even Ludiwick.
That said, Ludwick’s “breakout” 2008 in terms of OBP and batting average is a clear departure from his historical norms and if he regresses (not at all unlikely) then the team will loose OBP ability.
Glaus, posted his second highest single season OBP last season, 12 points above his career average.
Ankiel is the greatest enigma because he is still developing as a hitter. His minor league stats would suggest that chances of him becoming Rod Deer like on offense is not out of the question. Heck Deer’s best seasons did somewhat resemble Ankiel last season.
Taking all of this into account, one must at least question the logic of adding to this mix a middle infielder with decent power, but outside that, marginal obp and contact skills. If you see regression from Ankiel, Ludwick and even Glaus, the team will still have to long ball to score runs (power as a key part of their game), but the other necessary complementary skills needed to make the power game work (like obp) may not be there, which would create such a one dimensional team.
by JMedwick on Dec 4, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Taking all of this into account, one must at least question the logic of adding to this mix a middle infielder with decent power, but outside that, marginal obp and contact skills.
Nope. Offensive value is constant regardless of the context of your teammates. You’re worth as many runs as you’re worth regardless of your teammates skillets.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If the Cards from 2008 replace
Albert with Ryan Howard, will the team’s offensive output change?
by JMedwick on Dec 4, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously
Ryan Howard blows compared to Pujols
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But he becomes even less effective
his high RBI totals were predicated on the fact that he had high OBP guys batting in front of him.
If you put Ryan Howard on the Cardinals with Skippy and whoever in the #2 hole hitting in front of him, he may hit just as many homeruns but it drives in a whole lot less runs and the team is worse for it. He doesn’t get on base for the players behind him, he doesn’t run the bases well.
He changes the offense.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How is this relevant to the Greene discussion?
He’s not replacing Hanley Ramirez here…he’s replacing Cesar “All field/no hit” Izturis.
Are you arguing that replacing the best offensive player in all of baseball with a guy who hits more home runs and gets on base less would be worse for the ballclub?
I would agree with you, but it’s not a very apt comparison.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no
Ryan howard is worth XXXX runs regardless. That’s what stats like wOBA do. They isolate the value of scoring events and total them regardless of what everyone else does.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, not exactly.
Different skillsets will combine better or worse with a lineup’s skillset. Maybe +/- five runs so it’s not really a big deal. But it exists.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The run environment for a lineup
in the MLB today, is abnormal enough to constitute a .5 win difference? I’m skeptical. Evidence needed.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's probably on the extreme end.
But given the Padres or Giants lineups and parks and the Rangers’ lineup and parks, those are extremely different run environments. Let me work on a way to estimate the difference.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he'd have lower RBI totals
but wouldn’t be a worse offensive player, necessarily, except for the fact that he played 81 games in Busch as opposed to Citizens’ Bank Park.
by chuckb on Dec 4, 2008 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, interaction effects are real. Pretty insignificant, though.
With a team full of high OBP players, adding a high-OBP guy will help more than a high-SLG guy, if they are equally valuable in a neutral setting. And on a low-OBP team, you want high-SLG guys over high-OBP guys.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You think the opposite would be true.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But the spirit of my point though is true.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
On low OBP-teams...
it’s unlikely a batter will advance a runner because outs are common. so when players do advance, they better advance a lot of bases (thus, high SLG).
On high-OBP teams, runners will advance solely based on others reaching base repeatedly. you don’t need power, you need to make sure you don’t end the inning, because it’s less likely others will end the inning, either.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But the difference is small, right?
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Insignificant
because you rarely see a team constructed in a fashion as to deviate from the norm. If there actually existed a team of 8 Cesar Izturis’ in the NL, obviously that team would have a different environment but otherwise it’s not worth the brain power to worry about those situations.
by azruavatar on Dec 4, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it's because the White Sox/Rangers play in a band box?
And playing in a band box means you have bad hitters hitting a lot of homeruns?
HR totals do not neccesarily equal true power?
And what the hell is wrong with being third in runs scored? More runs scored = greater chance of winning.
I’m still waiting for why I’m wrong that teams who rely on HRs have trouble winning when they don’t hit them.
Teams that don’t hit homeruns tend to have a tough time scoring all the time.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Teams that don’t hit homeruns tend to have a tough time scoring all the time.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Show me a team in modern baseball that was bad at hitting homeruns
yet scored a lot of runs.
I bet you won’t find more than a couple.
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oooooh...Let's play this game
2008: White Sox – 6th in Runs, 13th in Runs Against, W: .546
2007: Brewers – 11th in Runs, 14th in Runs Against, W: .512
2006: White Sox – 3rd in Runs, 17th in Runs Against, w: .556
2005: Rangers – 3rd in Runs, 25th in Runs Against, W: .488
Crazy isn’t it? Pitching and defense have almost as much to do with winning as hitting!
I’d venture to say that all of these teams would probably be a lot worse off if they didn’t score a lot of runs, considering that none of them are in the top 10 in preventing runs by the other team.
Great job with the 2005 Rangers, by the way. If you’re going to cherry pick stats and teams, maybe you should pick a team that has a pitching staff with a pulse…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A pitching staff with a pulse
and the Cardinals pitching staff is going to be much better because….?
Remember, we have a pitching staff currently comprised of a legit frontline pitcher (Adam Wainwright), a injured, 5-times repaired former Ace (Carpenter), a scrap bin reliever (Wellemeyer) a career/contract year pitcher (Lohse) and Joel Pineiro.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a concern but it has nothing to do with the offense
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't the one
that brought it up.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great point!
Awesome — I love it when people prove my points for me….
- That rotation is still better than the 2005 Rangers rotation by a LARGE MARGIN.
- If our pitching is that bad, doesn’t our run scoring and defense have to be better in order to have a chance to win? Um, yes.
- We’re not improving our rotation with a pitcher who’s going to make $6.5M on a one year deal unless we get lucky like last year — not likely.
- Wellemeyer was a pretty good pitcher last year and the year before, and Carp was a scrap heap Rule 5er at one time, as was Johan Santana.
- You started this conversation by comparing teams that hit a lot of homers and score a lot of runs to their winning percentage. I was merely pointing out that the Rangers would have had a much higher winning percentage if they had pitchers who could get people out. Basically I was telling the whole story, you weren’t.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What story?
You aren’t even making sense.
JI said “Teams that hit HRs are usually among the run scoring leaders”, which had nothing to do with what I said. I simply said that when teams who rely on HRs don’t hit them, they have trouble scoring runs. They are one-dimensional.
I have yet to see any data proving otherwise, that teams that rely heavily on HRs still find ways to score runs without the longball. Any more or less so than teams that don’t.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
I have yet to see any data proving otherwise, that teams that rely heavily on HRs still find ways to score runs without the longball. Any more or less so than teams that don’t.
If teams who don’t hit homeruns have just as much trouble scoring runs as homerun-heavy teams who currently aren’t hitting homeruns, doesn’t that make them zero-dimensional?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 2:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're beginning to see the absurdness of his statements I think
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
how is it absurd to say...
that a low OBP high SLG team that goes through a low SLG period would have trouble scoring runs?
Unless you are assuming that the lost HRs are becoming singles or 2Bs and not flyball outs like I am.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
that’s how this started and somehow it’s been twisted in providing case studies of players who don’t hit HRs.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But what is your point?
Given this, which is obvious:
Low OBP, high SLG teams who go through low-SLG phases have trouble scoring runs in those phases.
What is the point?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That is all he said...
He was just stating that obvious fact and then it got blown up
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But that's not what his argument was
It was that teams that “rely” on homers struggle to score runs when they don’t hit home runs.
He also made the statement that this Cardinal team is full of low OBP/high SLG players — which it isn’t.
A team full of low OBP/high SLG players could have trouble scoring runs — if they all stopped slugging at the same time.
Not to mention that this has no bearing at all on the topic at hand because we aren’t fielding a lineup of 8 Khalil Greene’s and a pitcher.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That wasn't the argument at all
the argument was laid out directly above you.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Original statements
I am somewhat concerned about this deal
Not because I don’t think that Greene can succeed, but more so because I am concerned that with his addition, the Cardinals could become very home run dependent to score runs.
by JMedwick on Dec 4, 2008 11:12 AM CST
And htat’s a bad thing because?…
Khalilbot
by JI on Dec 4, 2008 11:16 AM CST
Ask the White Sox
When you don’t hit them, you lose. You become slow and clunky. You’re waiting around all day for the big inning. And with LaRussa, he isn’t going to press the issue to manufacture runs. Over the years, he’s lost his wild streak of doing that and has stayed risk averse to taking the bat out of any hitter’s hands.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 11:22 AM CST
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Right
the Cardinals could become very home run dependent to score runs.
That’s been the crux of the argument:
- While it may be true some of the time, especially with teams with low OBP players, it is not always true.
- This does not apply to the Cardinals, who had 6 regulars with OBP’s over .349 last year. In fact, the team ranked 4th in all of the major leagues in getting on base and was third in the NL in runs per game
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As for the White Sox
They were 15th in OBP, 6th in runs scored, and led the league in homers with better than league average pitching, and won their division.
I’m still trying to figure out his point….
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, well if they won their division
that solves everything!
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 4, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't that how we decide things?
They won 89 games….won their division. Do we give the World Series trophy to the team with the best OBP now? I’m confused. Their division wasn’t great, but they were able to win enough games to win it, right?
Their Pythag W/L? 89-74.
Their actual W/L? 89-74.
So they weren’t lucky either…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 4, 2008 3:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think what he was getting at
is that winning your division doesn’t show the quality of team you are, remember the dodgers won their division this year yet would have been 5th in the central
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 4, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
for Pete's Sake
They won 89 games!
Any team that finishes above .500 is probably a fairly good team, especially when they play in the better league. They probably would have won a whole lot more games had they played in the National League, because most of the really bad teams last year were in the NL.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller