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Manny Ramirez vs. Ben Sheets

It seems as though we have 15-20 million in our budget.  Assuming that we don't spend a large portion of it on complementary players like another LOOGY or a utility infielder, we would have enough money to sign one more impact player.  Since both Ramirez and Sheets would require similar contracts, 2 or 3 years with a high AAV, I was wondering which player would make us better. 

Manny's AAV would probably be about 5 million more than Sheets, but we could backload a 2 year deal because we have a lot of expiring contracts after 09 (Glaus, Piniero, Kennedy).

If were to sign Ramirez than we would have trade away one of our outfielders for a cost controlled starter to balance out the payroll and our rotation.  I'm thinking that the best move would be to trade Ludwick+prospect for Sonnastein.  That deal probably won't happen because the Rays already trade Jackson and they probably wouldn't want to trade another starter, but I am going to use Sonnastein's stats for the purposes of this post. 

Last year Ramirez was a 6.5 win player.  Assuming that he regresses a little offensively and his fielding (which was good by his standards) becomes worse, we'll call him an even 6.0 win player for next year.  Let's say that Sonnastein will be about a 3.0 win player next year.  He wasn't that good this year, but further development and the fact that he would be moving out of the AL East would help him a lot.  That means the combo of Sonnastein and Manny would be about 9.0 wins next year.    

Now I'm gonna look at what would happen if we signed Sheets and kept Ludwick.  Sheets will probably be a 3-3.5 win player next year.  I am assuming that he stays healthy but regresses a little from last year, then he will be worth 3.5 wins.  Ludwick last year was a 5.1 win player last year.  He will probably regress offensively, but judging his past UZR compared to this year's he should also improve defensively.  I'm gonna say that he will be worth 4.5 wins, although judging by his projections for next year that might be a stretch.  So Ben Sheets and Ryan Ludwick would be worth about 8.0 wins next year.  

Assuming that we could get a player like Sonnastine in exchange for Ludwick, Manny Ramirez would help our team more than Ben Sheets.  If you consider the impact of having Manny and Pujols, who are probably the 2 best hitters in the game, batting 3rd and 4th and and acquiring a long term, cost controlled starter, then it makes even more sense to sign Manny over Sheets.

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Except that Manny will require more money,

will necessitate even more action to remove our outfield glut, will whine and cry about his contract, and will be terrible enough in the field that I can see him posting the exact same WAR as ludwick, just for about twenty to sixty times the salary.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Dec 31, 2008 8:31 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I’ll take Sheets too, thanks.

Make no mistake, if Luddy comes into April pounding the ball on a fulltime basis like he did on a part-time basis last April, he’ll be just as feared as anyone else would be. For chump change I may add.

We can risk a short term injury risk such as Sheets.

Sheets + Boggs (or Joel if Carp isn’t healthy) works just fine for me. Am I the only one that thinks that Sheets would love to pitch for us? I mean, I think he’d really get into it.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Dec 31, 2008 9:52 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree with the above comments

I’d take Sheets over Manny any day of the week. I don’t know how you figure Andy SONNANSTINE’s value to be nearly equivalent to a healthy Sheets though. Sheets’ 2008 ERA/FIP: 3.09/3.38, Sonnanstine’s 2008 ERA/FIP: 4.38/3.91.

Manny Ramirez was a 6.5 value win player last year. 1.2 in 2007. 3.9 in 2006. I don’t see how he could possibly be worth 6 next year. That said, we don’t have enough money for him anyway. We have plenty of ML caliber outfielders. Ankiel, Ludwick, Rasmus, Schumaker, Barton, Duncan, Mather. We don’t need to try to outbid the Dodgers and end up paying $20 million for another, who will turn 37 in May.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Dec 31, 2008 11:22 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

put me down for Sheets...

… don’t forget that Luddy is still under team control and fairly cheap (i.e. below market) for 3 years. so you’re losing a whole season if you trade him and sign Manny. yes, i know you get Sonnastine for several years.

i have no idea what kind of deal Sheets is gonna get at this point, but i’d be willing to bet that the AAV is close to $10mn less than Manny.

by kindred on Dec 31, 2008 11:42 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yo could say that about Garza and Kazmir too

I don’t think that we would be able to get Sonnastine because he was that good and the Rays are starting to lose depth in the rotation. I was just using him to represent a cheap, good, starter that we could get for Ludwick to balance out my equation.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 31, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sheets is the better option

The Cards have plenty of outfielders and can get enough production out of their 7 headed monster out there.

However, the rotation is a house of cards (no pun intended). Besides Wainwright, there are 4 question marks. Can Wellemeyer have another fine year after being a poor relief pitcher his whole career? Can Lohse conquer his peripherals and have another good year? Can Pinata pitch at all? Can Carpenter stay healthy? If they bring Sheets aboard, sure, he adds another question mark…but he’s also really f’ing good, certainly better than Lohse, Wellemeyer, and Pinata. It’s certainly a risk, but it injects new talent into a rotation that could just as easily flop as flourish.

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 31, 2008 1:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ben Sheets.. Fo Sho

If we sign Manny, its not even a sure thing that the Cards could trade for a major league ready starter. Then we would be stuck with umpteen outfielders. On a personal note, I hate Manny. If we’re gonna sign him, why not just sign Bonds? He’s still playing apparently.

For future reference, his name is spelled Andy Sonnanstine

by wizardofozzie on Dec 31, 2008 1:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ben Sheets

That’s all I’m gonna say

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...

by RunninRedbird on Dec 31, 2008 1:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Lets see...

Mediocre outfielder with an aging but formidable bat? – Well we could use the bat, but the last thing we need another outfielder especially for the money he wants and the baggage he posesses or…

A number 2 – 3 SP who has a bit of a history on the DL and will send draft picks to a div rival.

I say take SHEETS

by bornin82 on Dec 31, 2008 2:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

easy

Sheets, no Manny here!

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 31, 2008 4:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

no Manny no Manny no Manny no Manny no Manny no Manny no Manny

NO MANNY!!!!!!!!

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Dec 31, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

we already have a guy that can't play the OF

his name is Duncy

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 31, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He sits in the corner,

on a stool, wearing a pointy hat on his head.

by spants on Dec 31, 2008 7:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

humping pinatas

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 31, 2008 8:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you are supposed to post the picture for that

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 31, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

oh yeah

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 1, 2009 6:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Agree with most of you.

Sheets, hopefully on a two year contract (but I’d settle for three) could be the goose to the rotation that we need to compete in a vastly improved division. Injury is a risk with Sheets but Manny’s a risk in way too many ways.

by easy on Dec 31, 2008 8:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

No love for Manny

I live up near Boston and this guy is money. Big game player. Smokes the ball and puts fans in seats. Puts the fear of God into the opposing pitcher. I’d love Manny (and Sheets). He clearly can have an attitude and I think he overplayed his hand with Boston, but there was a lot of angst for years between him and front office. Don’t think he will get anywhere near the deal he wants, but if you can get him for $60-65 million for three years with a fourth year option in the middle of Albert’s prime I’d do that. Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Nationals appear out of hunt. So only team with deep pockets are the Dodgers who want 2/45 with an option.

I agree you need a get out of jail card on a long term deal and that he might start deteriorating sooner than we think, but he is awesome when he is on and next to Albert may be the only one in baseball who can pick up a team and carry it on his back for weeks at a time.

I’d put up with his defense for that kind of output. Signing him means you are done except for scrap heap and rehab projects but I’d like Ankiel, Ludwick, Pujols, Ramirez, Glaus in the middle of our lineup.

Just win

by The Duke on Jan 1, 2009 2:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

he should be a DH

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 1, 2009 6:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Love Manny too

but if Manny were to be signed then I think you have to trade Ankiel or Ludwick. I would love to get a starting pitcher. Would Minnesota dare do a Liriano for Ludwick + trade?

by njnick on Jan 1, 2009 8:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree, but what a ballplayer....

when he wants to be. First thing that makes him unhappy and you got “Manny being Manny” like in Boston. No thanks, get sheets. While it is tempting to see Pujols and Manny in the lineup together I just can’t believe Manny would be happy for long and wouldn’t pull another stunt like in Boston.

People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.-Rogers Hornsby

by thegashousegang on Jan 2, 2009 8:19 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think I like Sheets, but

Only if he has incentives similar to the Randy Johnson contract. I can live with promising 5-6 million, but require him to pitch 160+ innings before you give him another cent.

Ben is still (comparatively) young. Maybe he comes to the Cardinals, similar to Lohse’s situation last year, proves his health, and then cashes in the following season?

by JWO on Jan 1, 2009 4:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Sheets wouldn't do 5-6 mil

Unlike Johnson he is in his prime and is an ace when healthy. It is incredible that someone as good as Sheets is in our price range. Still, he would likely cost us 2/30 type deal.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 1, 2009 5:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Probably not...

a 5-6 million dollar deal…but I could see:

3 years, $24 million ($8 million per season)
Each year he gets $3 million for throwing 160+ innings.
Each year it ups to $5 million for throwing 180+ innings.
Each year it ups to $7 million for throwing 200+ innings.

There’s your $15 million per season.

by stlfan on Jan 2, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He might take it

If we get deeper into the offseason and no one has picked him up. He might not like it, but he is perceived as a health risk. He’s probably worth $15M if he pitched a full season. But he doesn’t do that very often, does he?

by JWO on Jan 1, 2009 6:07 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

The wierd thing is

He has had an almost identical career to AJ Burnett in terms of ERA, win totals and injury history. He has been even better when you talk about FIP, but he will be getting a fraction of Burnett’s contract. Sheet’s was better than Burnett last year and he only pitched about 20 innings fewer. Well this explains it better.

by vivaelpujols on Jan 1, 2009 6:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wouldn't it be funny

if the yankees sign manny? that just wouldn’t be fair

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Jan 1, 2009 6:57 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

all's fair in love & baseball

but he’s not going to the Yankee’s unless they dump a few guys. and i don’t see them being able to do that.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Jan 1, 2009 8:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yes they can afford him

but they aren’t in the biz of wasting money anymore. and if they did sign him, they would have to dump some salary, and they just don’t want do that anymore.

so watch them give him 2/$50mill now just to prove me wrong

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Jan 2, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Why not Manny to the Yanks?

Especially if they were able to trade Matsui even if they had to eat some of his salary. The Yanks have obviously been very aggressive this offseason why stop now?

by njnick on Jan 2, 2009 8:44 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Because they are limited in the amount of Type A and B FA they can sign

They’ve already signed 3 this offseason, and only lost three from last year’s team, so I don’t believe they can sign any more because of that clause in the CBA.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Jan 2, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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