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Penny for your thoughts

Did you see that? Did you see that right there? I used a pun to title this diary. Bam. 

Buster Olney says that Brad Penny is "weighing an overture" from the Cardinals among other options. It would be for a one year deal. Quick show of hands - who didn't see this coming?

Penny was awful last season, throwing only 94.2 innings and had a 6.27 ERA. But in in 2007 he was pretty darn good, posting a 3.63 FIP over 33 starts. Penny pitched much better in the first half of the season than the second due to the fact that he was dealing with some shoulder soreness that he tried to pitch through, which could be a very big reason why he stunk last year. Some Dodger fans doubted how serious his injury was and didn't like the way he went AWOL before the season ended. He did not undergo surgery.

While his K/9 rate dipped down under 5, his pitch F/X card says he averaged about 94.5 MPH on his fastball last year, for what it's worth. Fangraphs has 92.5. Regardless, that's only a tick or so off from his normal velocity.

Penny graduated from Broken Arrow HS (just outside Tulsa) so he might prefer the  the Cardinals considering geography and the fact Oklahoma's considered "Cardinal Country", although I'm not sure how much that really will factor in his decision making. We know money will.

There is good chance he'll be this season's Matt Clement, but there's the hope that he gets healthy enough to pitch like the Brad Penny of old, at least for part of the season.  For just one year and most likely not  a ton of cash, seems like a worthwhile gamble to me. 

Just to speculate a little more, I've been halfway wondering if Mo doesn't also add Brandon Lyon just to give La Russa his precious cap-C closer, even though Lyon  wasn't able to hold down the job last year for Arizona and probably wouldn't pitch better than Motte or Perez. I'm not advocating it, but I have in inkling it'll happen.

UPDATE: The Red Sox signed him for a 1 year, $5M with incentives for innings pitched. Bah. Kawakami or bust!

 

 

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Comments

Display:

I guess I could live with Penny

at least there’s a high reward to that high risk.

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Dec 28, 2008 12:32 AM EST reply actions  

As much as I'd like to have 2007 Brad Penny pitching for us..

adding another question mark just doesn’t seem desirable at this point.

by TheBirds on Dec 28, 2008 12:54 AM EST reply actions  

I would like to see us take a risk on a starter

Just not on Penny. I live in LA and I have seen Penny pitch a lot, and for whatever reason I really don’t like him. He has a great fastball, but it is straight and he pitches it up in the zone, therefore any drop in his velocity would lead to a big rise in his BAA and HR ratio.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 28, 2008 3:44 AM EST reply actions  

i've half-heartedly advocated both Penny and Lyon in the past...

… mostly because Mo could do a lot worse. upside signings that are sure to be relatively cheap and on short terms. it’s doubtful that either will reach their past peaks, but it isn’t hard to imagine both being solid contributors that don’t break the bank. since we missed on RJ, i think i’d be cool with either.

by kindred on Dec 28, 2008 5:39 AM EST reply actions  

I like Penny

But if I think about it, I might like it less, so I’m not gonna.

I’m on vacation here, gimme a break.

by mojowo11 on Dec 28, 2008 7:06 AM EST reply actions  

Roll the Dice!

My expectation is that after the Clement, Mulder, Carpenter Extension, etc. etc. Mo will not take a chance on potentially sunk costs on another injury risk.

If he does take that chance on Penny, however, I will be duly impressed. It’s interesting that a guy who is in his 30s can still be discussed like a guy in his early 20s… “Hell of a fastball” “Could be a legit No. 2”, but…. You would think that after X years of not really establishing yourself people would slot you in somewhere and move on but Penny is a guy that you can still dream on a bit.

If signing him costs us $4M and the opportunity to give $6M to the Braden Looper’s of the world I say do it and screw it?! We all can see that free agents are not knocking on the Cards door. We have to get em in, treat em good, and extend them before they hit the free market….

by Lawless on Dec 28, 2008 10:00 AM EST reply actions  

I'd probably go for it.

It looks like low risk in terms of money for a low likelihood of a high reward. Yeah okay. One other thing to consider though is the potential drain on coaching resources that these reclamation projects may cause. We’ve already got a young bullpen to get into shape during spring training. Then we’ve got Carp who for sure will take up a lot of Dunc’s time. My suspicion is that he’ll spend as much time trying to keep Lohse from regressing to norm. Anyway I’ve wondered if all of these long shot reclamation projects don’t take energy from being spent in more productive areas particularly in spring training. Having said all that I like the odds of reclaiming the old Brad Penny far better than I ever did of doing the same with Clement and Mulder.

by easy on Dec 28, 2008 11:14 AM EST reply actions  

If It's Cheap Enough

I guess it might be worth the gamble. But I would rather take our chances of Pedro Martinez. He might have something left and he is perhaps healthier than Penny. I think Looper is better than either of these pitchers at this point. The team should take a serious run at Wolf, Perez or Lowe. We need a proven innings eater, not another question mark with upside.

victim of the sixties

by victim of the sixties on Dec 28, 2008 12:05 PM EST reply actions  

i agree

this completely depends on how much money we are talking…and the number of years…i like 1 year around 7 mil with a 10 mil option for ’10

by VolsnCards5 on Dec 28, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

1 year 7 million?

Seems like an awful lot to spend considering RJ’s contract. I’m sorry if I think more money should separate one of the better pitchers last year and a reclamation project.

As much as I’m not a fan of overpaying Fuentes, 7 million would be better spent as part of a Fuentes deal.

by TheBirds on Dec 28, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions  

That's pretty expensive..

Considering his contract before the injuries was worth 8.5. 1 year 4 or 4.5 seems like it would be there, but it sounds like the Red Sox are close to signing him

by wizardofozzie on Dec 28, 2008 6:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmm.....

The Red Sox have a “shoulder program” that helps players like Penny stay on the mound. Hey, if I’m Penny and my friends Beckett and Lowell are already on the team, AND they have a plan in place to help my ailing shoulder, I’d say “Hey, where do I sign?” He’d be an extra nice arm to have for a team like the Red Sox-they have other options. They could bring him along and hope he’s ready just when they need him to be.

Do we have a formal “shoulder program” to offer a guy like Penny?

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Dec 28, 2008 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Do we have a formal "shoulder program" to offer a guy like Penny?

There are so many jokes for me to make here, I don’t know what to do with myself.

by azruavatar on Dec 28, 2008 10:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, it struck me funny too....

and I’m not sure where I came across that, but it was all serious and everything.

No. I didn’t mention it or ask about it to make fun of anyone or anything. I really wanted to know if the Cardinals have something like this.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Dec 28, 2008 10:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Everyone probably does,

it sounds like nothing groundbreaking.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Dec 28, 2008 10:26 PM EST up reply actions  

the red sox program is pretty unique

there was a lot of discussion about it earlier this season. Obviously no one knows if it is “better” or not yet, but it is supposedly something pretty special.

they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums

by SleepyCA on Dec 28, 2008 10:40 PM EST up reply actions  

if buy formal "shoulder program"

you mean surgery, yes, I think the Cardinals offer that procedure.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 28, 2008 10:28 PM EST up reply actions  

by...dummy!

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 28, 2008 10:28 PM EST up reply actions  

What frustrates me about Penny...

Is that he signed with the Red Sox for EXACTLY the kind of deal the Cards would have / should have offered. $5 Million for one year, with $3 Million in incentives if he pitches 160 innings? Even with a slightly risky pitcher, that’s a pretty good bet. The Cardinals didn’t have an offer like that available?

by JWO on Dec 29, 2008 1:20 AM EST reply actions  

the Cardinals did have an offer out

is it so hard to believe that possibly he just wanted to play for the Sox instead?

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 29, 2008 10:14 AM EST up reply actions  

yes

why play in baseball hell where the fans boo & say nasty things about your momma when you fail to K all the Yankees, when you can play in baseball heaven where the fans cheer you for adjusting your jock properly?

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Dec 29, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Ha...I bet Penny won't mind, even if he's booed.

at least the fans care on some level. Remember, he pitched for the Marlins and the Dodgers-hardly a haven of caring fans.

The Boston fans might be rough, but the organization is first rate.

She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.

by jillsinmo on Jan 1, 2009 9:36 AM EST up reply actions  

isn't Penny a major "hot head" ?

or do I have him confused with someone else? Even if, I don’t know that that would have been a big negative. The Cards in general and Dunc in particular seem to do well with malcontents {the dream Weaver, Floppy, e.g}… maybe not so good with the nice guys {Anthony Reyes, WonderBrad, e.g}
The latter allows me to pile on re my distemper with not offering Looper arby. Seems to me, if the Loop had done for say the Cleveland Indians the same as he did for us the last two years, we would have been pleased to have picked him up as an FA,,, a solid # 4 guy at the very least: avg 6.0 innings per start, usually gives you a chance to win, injury free and the WAY he pitches not likely to hurt himself, mechanically simple and methodical.

by the Tewk on Dec 29, 2008 1:27 AM EST reply actions  

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