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And Joe Mather's Secretary was named Lincoln

Brief post today—as the scheduled-poster publishes this I'll be a half an hour into the GRE. 

Now is as good a time as any to talk about what we can reasonably expect from Joe Mather next year. Yesterday's fanpost on the subject made me think, more than anything else, about how little I usually think about Mather. I think he gets lost in the shuffle because the major potential outfield move of this offseason, trading Rick Ankiel, segues so neatly into the major prospect move of this offseason, promoting Colby Rasmus. 

But as said fanpost demonstrates, by comparing Mather's AAA mashing and subsequent debut with Rick Ankiel's AAA mashing and subsequent debut, it was a rookie year worth more consideration than I've been giving it. Here's what it looks like with his AAA rampage converted into MLB-equivalent stats. (MLEs courtesy Baseball Prospectus.)

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K K% BB% AVG OBP SLG
AAA MLE 59 216 59 13 1 15 29 35 16% 13% .273 .374 .551
MLB 54 133 32 7 0 8 12 32 24% 9% .241 .306 .474
2008 113 349 91 20 1 23 39 67 19% 12% .261 .335 .522

I like this because both his major league debut and his last stint in Memphis demand to be looked at with a little suspicion—his AAA stint because it was so great, his MLB time because it was so sporadic. What it reminds me of, off-hand, is the jump from AA to the PCL that he made in 2007. 

G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K K% BB% AVG OBP SLG
AA 64 234 71 17 0 18 29 32 14% 12% .303 .387 .607
AAA 70 253 61 10 1 13 23 51 20% 9% .241 .329 .443
TOTALS 134 487 132 27 1 31 52 83 17% 11% .271 .357 .522

Eerie, right? I bolded the numbers that I didn't have to change after I copied and pasted this table, for maximum eeriness, but the broader point is a little less parlor trick and a little more interesting: both years Mather, who has been notoriously slow to develop—2007 was the first year in seven that he managed an .800 OPS—started off slugging .600 and, after a promotion, continued to hit for power but struggled with his previously solid plate discipline. Since Mather followed up his first taste of AAA with the second slugging outburst, this is a pretty optimistic line of reasoning. 

There are reasons for tempered optimism. For one thing, he's not all that young for a guy who's got 133 major league at-bats; he's just a little over a year younger than Chris Duncan, for instance, with whom he'll be competing for playing time come Spring Training. (The MLB promotion had the opposite effect on Duncan, too; in his two pre-hernia half-seasons he far outperformed anything he'd ever done in the minor leagues.) ZiPS, for its part, expects the man called Bombs to regress even from his MLB debut, hitting all of .243/.308/.425. 

But after the unlikely emergences of Ludwick, Ankiel, and Duncan over the past few years I'm having a hard time maintaining anything resembling hard-line skepticism about uncelebrated slugging AAA outfielders. What's your Joe Mather projection, from playing time to venue to production? (He's an impressive player to see in person—I think there might be a significant correlation between positive projections and the amount of time you've spent watching him take long home run swings and lope around the outfield.)

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eeww..... GRE.....

That thing’s a pain in the rear.

If you’re at all good at math, you’ll probably find that part’s pretty easy, but the verbal section is a total killer if you haven’t spent like 5 hours a day for 10 weeks studying all those vocabulary lists.

I’m even an English teacher and the vocab kicked my butt.

by mtalken on Dec 23, 2008 9:37 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

GRE is crap....

for a lot of reasons. It really bugs me that many grad programs put so much emphasis on that thing. Essentially, it’s a luck-of-the-draw with the quant section (i.e., you get questions you know how to solve) and then the verbal is what it is.

I had a 210 pt difference between Time 1 and Time 2 of my own GRE. Lucky for me, I improved and got into a good grad program, but it’s frustrating to see many good students get discouraged from pursuing graduate degrees because of their performance on that thing.

Wrong forum, I suppose….my bad.

Good luck on the test.

by goodymobb on Dec 23, 2008 9:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

if I go back for my masters

it will be for something that doesn’t require that test. I’m good at taking tests, but I’m done with stuff like that, I swear

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 23, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

One of the smartest people I know

Just got, like, a 65th percentile on the damn thing. She’s got a GPA right around 4.0 at Washington U in St. Louis, but the GRE shot her hopes of Yale/Harvard/Stanford grad school to hell. It’s a shame.

by mojowo11 on Dec 23, 2008 7:54 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ack. Stupid fingers not doing what they're supposed to.

Anyway… Wash-U? There’s her problem. Burn!
Totally kidding. I grew up right next to Wash-U and I went to a really small college and just like to make fun of the place. Will they ever stop building stuff? It’s like a psychosis. I actually am employed by Wash-U School of Medicine, so maybe I shouldn’t have said any of this…

by mattybobo on Dec 24, 2008 10:18 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Well yeah, actually

We just lost a whole crapload of our endowment thanks to the economy, so the construction is going to slow down a lot now. One project was slowed, one was suspended indefinitely, etc.

But yeah, Wash U is funny about building things.

by mojowo11 on Dec 24, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i scored in the 97th percentile on the verbal

and drooled like a drunk cubs fan on the math/analytical sections… good luck danup

if you can’t trust a southern lawyer cooking a kosher meal in a dumpster,
well, then, the world has grown far too cynical

by RosevilleRedbird on Dec 23, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Just like me.

I bombed the math (38th percentile) but scored in the 99th percentile in Verbal and a perfect score on the writing. I have to take the Praxis I tomorrow myself…

by mattisnotfrench on Dec 23, 2008 12:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh

I forgot to wish you good luck DanUp! It isn’t as bad as it seems.

by mattisnotfrench on Dec 23, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

good luck

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Dec 23, 2008 4:06 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks for the well-wishes, everybody

I did better than I was expecting, especially on the math. Unfortunately my newly minted nice GRE score will be totally worthless, since I’m applying to creative writing programs and they only require it out of obligation.

by DanUpBaby on Dec 23, 2008 12:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Saw Joey Bombs 1st HR in DC

has a great swing, hope he can develop some discipline at the plate.

MUCH better OF than Duncan.

My hope is that he’s the 4th OF, platooning w/Skip in RF.

Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song:

by gocards62 on Dec 23, 2008 9:39 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

was that

 the day game? it was so hot that day, i may as well have been in st louis.

by spencegrif on Dec 23, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

night game

Worrell GS, 9th inning comeback, Joey Bombs goes deep in the 10th to put the Cards ahead

And Franklin gives up a walk-off 2-run HR to Elijah Dukes. Nats win.

Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song:

by gocards62 on Dec 23, 2008 7:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

First things first...

Good luck on the GRE.

On to Mather, a few weeks (or more) ago I did some projections of my own for next season. Over the past few years, I have been very hit or miss with my projections. I never really share these projections with others, just have them saved on my laptop…occassionally I share certain sets of data when we do these exercises on VeB.

After reading the last two days’ posts, I think that I was a little harsh on Mather in my projections that I made back in late October or early November. My line for Mather was over 440 PA, 400 AB. I have him with a .238/.307/.438 line, with a well-rounded 20 doubles and 20 homers, 40 walks to 100 Ks.

I could see him dropping his Ks down to 80 or so over 400 AB, and his line peak at about a .260/.350/.525 line for his first full season. Probably, though, he will be somewhere in between. I hope I was a little low on him on my original predictions…but who knows.

If he can get closer to the second line than the first one, then I have no problem trading Ankiel for a starting pitcher and letting Rasmus take over center, Ludwick take over RF, and having a platoon/OF glut in left of Skip/Mather/Barton or Duncan (if Duncan is healthy).

by stlfan on Dec 23, 2008 9:45 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

projections are fun

did you do anything with BABIp in your projections, though? Mather was very, very unlucky in 2008; he had a 21% LD rate and a .255 BABIP. His expected BABIP was around .320.

Assuming his BABIP = eBABIP and all the extra hits were singles, his line in 2008 would have been at least .284/.349/.517 (.866 OPS)…

they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums

by SleepyCA on Dec 23, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hardball Times PrOPS

Even rates him a tick higher at .284/.344/.537 (.881)

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 23, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

no sleepyCA, I did not.

I just use baseball-reference…looking at their career lines and take into account how they did the last few years (or last year in his case) and how old they are if they should be rising or on the decline. It’s very scientific (end sarcasm).

by stlfan on Dec 23, 2008 10:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

probably explained elsewhere but

what is the proper pronounciation of Joey’s last name?

by Hinkster on Dec 23, 2008 10:13 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

and...........

its an alley oop pass to AZ…………………………….

I asked for that

by Hinkster on Dec 23, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it's pronounced like the word

lather as in “lather. rinse. repeat.”

by azruavatar on Dec 23, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

ok then

I shall no longer refer to him as “May-ther”

my mlb tv mute button has been on since Tim McCarver started announcing and I don’t live in Cardinal radio country……..I suppose I am a one dimensional (eyesight) fan

by Hinkster on Dec 23, 2008 4:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Great title for the post

Kudos.

Lou Brock loves Lamp.

by birdjam on Dec 23, 2008 10:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

am i the only one that doesn't get it?

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Dec 23, 2008 12:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The title?

Lincoln’s secretary was named Kennedy and Kennedy’s secretary was named Lincoln.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 23, 2008 12:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What?

So Mather = Kennedy?

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Dec 23, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess you didn't the article by PD

Mather was actually related to Lincoln

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 23, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok

Makes sense now. Thanks.

by Hal Lanier's Pants on Dec 23, 2008 3:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i didn't see that.

what was the relation? lincoln is my 9th cousin, so i guess mather is some distant relative as well. i guess i’ll have to root a little harder for him now.

"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa

by adiueordie on Dec 23, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It is in fact a myth . . .

that Lincoln’s secretary was named Kennedy.

by alberich on Dec 23, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

please forgive the hot stove interruption

but it looks like the angels have turned their attention to fuentes!

let us rejoice in this fabulous news…

How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor

by themanthemyth on Dec 23, 2008 10:41 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

woohoo!

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 23, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

to be honest I had resigned myself to the

idea we were getting Fuentes and was convincing myself it would be so bad.

But this is good news.
I just with the Cards would come out and say “we have no interest in Fuentes and will not be pursuing him”
If he doesnt want to play here and prefers the Angels, fine.
But I dont want us to be driving his price up and wasting our time

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Dec 23, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Never seen him in person...

but his “loping” athleticism was apparent even when transmitted and reassembled digitally. What impressed me most about Mather, besides some absolute defensive gems in right field, was his wide receiver build. The man is an athlete.

The ultimate optimist in me looks at his first 200+ ABs from last year (AAA) and the year before (AA), before the promotions, and hopes that there’s a trend where Mather needs the second half of the year to adjust and then blows up at the beginning of the next season.

’08 G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG
AAA 59 211 64 14 2 17 32 36 .303 .411 .630
’07 G AB H 2B 3B HR BB K AVG OBP SLG
AA 64 234 71 17 0 18 29 32 .303 .387 .607

I think his defense alone wins out in any platoon competition with Duncan and his power and speed wins out against Barton. I would like to see how he does as our starting RFer with Schu a very capable 4th OFer.

by BustaCard on Dec 23, 2008 10:58 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

his speed wins out over Barton?

Joey is a good athlete but he cant run with the Astronaut…and Barton OB abilities win out over Mathers which is more important, imo. Although if I had to give one the majority of at-bats I am not sure which way I would go as of now but I am probably leaning a little toward Barton…

Life is better when you have a Big Unit!

by nomar34 on Dec 23, 2008 11:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If we were talking about

CF, maybe I’d agree with you that speed wins … but your analysis is wrong. First, Barton has a weak arm meaning he can’t play RF. I don’t like him much in CF either and neither does Tony due to his arm (Mather has played more in CF for the Cards than dread). Further, that limits dread to LF and, as a LF, power trumps speed every time (unless you are Lou Brock). Joey Bombs gets the nod over dread IMHO.

by jjray on Dec 23, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My bad

I reread you post and see the argument was OBP, not speed. If three of Skip, C Duncan, Mather and Barton make the team, I think it all comes down to whether Duncan is healthy. If so, Skip and Duncan are locks (Duncan due to the Uncle Tony factor). Barton as a bench player being limited pretty much to LF is not going to play well with Tony. Mather plays all three OF positions and 1B (and 3B in a pinch).

by jjray on Dec 23, 2008 11:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

If Mather and Schu platoon

who will lead off when Mather is playing?

Interesting dilemma in trying to project Mather’s numbers. The consensus seems to be that he will be in a platoon situation unless Schumaker and Duncan are both traded or unable to perform, etc. While Joey had a pretty pronounced reverse split last year for the big club, there is nothing in his MiLB numbers to indicate he has a problem hitting lefties.

I think he will get about 300 ABs and will put up something like a .265/.320/.480 line.

Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...

by giveml on Dec 23, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lumberjack Platoon

If Skippy gets traded, imagine Lil’ Dunc and Joey Bombs platooning in LF. They’d quite the duo of mashers.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 23, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I want this platoon to happen

for no reason other than these nicknames. It just has to.

by DanUpBaby on Dec 23, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa

by adiueordie on Dec 23, 2008 1:44 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

it will be more like

a Skip/Mather/Barton/Rasmus/Duncan platoon.

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 23, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

oh yes...

at least f. lopez won’t be in the mix… and hopefully not stavinoha

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 23, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and Poland

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Dec 23, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

not to be a....

but all baseball players are athletes, by definition

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 23, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Give me...

.260/.325/.470, with 375 ABs. He starts out as the 4th/5th outfielder but starts getting more time in the 2nd half as he puts up good numbers and one of the outfield gaggle gets traded.

by mikedallas45 on Dec 23, 2008 11:10 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Interesting Info

from the Baseball Guru on the (potential) Japanese imports.

(I apologize if anyone has already linked to this.)

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 23, 2008 11:39 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

not so sure Mather

will beat out Barton in spring training. hopefully some of the outfield glut is gone, otherwise, it would suck to try and manage this situation.

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 23, 2008 1:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

no no no

what I’ve heard is that the Giants are looking for a lefty 1B….

by FunkeeC on Dec 23, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

and...

i bet tampa would trade us multiple cost controlled years of sonnanstine and zobrist for one year of ankiel!

then put carp in the closer slot and we’re set!

"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa

by adiueordie on Dec 23, 2008 2:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Great!

Lets extend him now to keep him locked up for five years.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 23, 2008 6:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Will Mather even be 100% by Spring Training?

He had surgery on his hand which can take power from his swing plus back problems

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 23, 2008 2:53 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Well at least we don't have to worry about the Yankees taking Pujols away.

Looks like they have signed Teixeria to a mega deal.

Are the yankees just trying to make baseball empose a salary cap??

We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.

by KYCards on Dec 23, 2008 3:30 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Such a Dick in the Eye

Now Brewers only get 2nd Round pick for CC and Toronto gets 3rd Round for AJ. I am so happy we are not in the AL East.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 23, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

any more type a free agents out there?

I think the Yankees have given up on the whole “draft” thing

by STLRegalia on Dec 23, 2008 3:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

at least we know what is happening with the economy

apparently the Yankees have all of the money

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 23, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

did have

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Dec 23, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

say what you will

but at least they didn’t throw a lot of $$$ at garbage. If you could afford to eat steak and lobster every night, you probably would, right? (Well, you’d probably die of a heart attack, but I’m sure you get my drift…) I don’t begrudge the Yankees, we’ve seen that small markets can still build winners too. The Jeffrey Loria’s of the world sicken me more than the Steinbrenners.

Hyperventilating prospect geek
Future Redbirds

by erik on Dec 23, 2008 9:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i think there is a bit of

“win one for george” before he’s gone, but mostly they can afford the risk of big money over many years. it sure makes manny’s fate a bit more intriguing

i also agree a salary floor of some kind would be a good thing

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Dec 23, 2008 9:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd like to see a Cardinals-Yankees

world series in ’09

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 24, 2008 1:06 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that would be a dream come true for me

with Albert going deep off of MO in the bottom of the 9th in game 7 to win the series.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Dec 24, 2008 1:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Am I taking things a little too seriously...

When my thought was “well I wish Albert hits a grand slam in the top of the 7th to put us up by one and have Motte/Perez strike out 9 consecutive batters averaging 98 mph”?

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Dec 24, 2008 1:54 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

recd

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 24, 2008 1:12 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm glad we're not in the AL as well

I swear if I were an owner in the AL I would be on the phone with Selig right now telling him this crap has got to stop. If any of the owners in the AL care to win they need to get together and force some things to change…soon.

We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.

by KYCards on Dec 23, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but the yankees haven't been to the series since 2003 or won it since 2000

and they didn’t even make the playoffs last year. so obviously there’s more to it than buying every free agent possible.

"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa

by adiueordie on Dec 23, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That's really not my point

it’s the fact that the Yankees can just buy whoever they want with no worries. Where the rest of the League (other than Red Sox & Angels) really don’t have much of a chance to sign these top guys without completely maxing out their payroll for years.

We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.

by KYCards on Dec 23, 2008 4:08 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's not about punishment.

It’s about competitive balance. At this rate, it’ll be like MLB vs. AAA when the Yankees play other teams.

by spants on Dec 23, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Um, their payroll

has not even dramatically changed from last year, adjusted for inflation and they are basically treading water.

Hyperventilating prospect geek
Future Redbirds

by erik on Dec 24, 2008 9:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Yankees

have more wins than any other team this decade. The money counts for something.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Dec 23, 2008 4:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

everything about this post made me laugh

www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D

by jealousblues on Dec 23, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i'm kind of glad to see milwaukee lose that first rounder,

but the yankees are pissing me off a bit.

something like:

sp sabathia
sp burnett
sp wang
sp chamberlain
sp pettite?

damon lf
jeter ss
teixeira 1b
rodriguez 3b
swisher cf
matsui dh
nady rf
posada c
cano 2b

that’s sick.

"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa

by adiueordie on Dec 23, 2008 3:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i still think they are gonna sign sheets

hopefully their middle relief will blow games for them

by VolsnCards5 on Dec 23, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

maybe they'll sign

fuentes, hoffman and nelson to handle the middle innings along with marte.

"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa

by adiueordie on Dec 23, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Rumors of an opt-out clause for Tex

So, the Yanks could potentially shed the Tex and CC contracts, if the opt-out is exercised by the players.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 23, 2008 4:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i thought that clause was actually pretty clever.

Cashman seems to trust in his players’ senses of greed.

So, if he believes that CC will likely be healthy in 3 years, but not in 6 or 7 (which seems reasonable), he can trust CC to opt out for bigger money in three years.

He’s totally screwing the club in the later years of the contract if CC tears his rotator cuff between now and 2011, but otherwise he’s basically made a rich three-year contract with CC and dressed it up as a longer-term contract. That way, the club has less exposure over the long term, and CC gets to brag about how his contract was better than Santana’s.

by tom s. on Dec 23, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

But, that’s kind of the point. The risk is being shouldered solely by the Yankees and not by the player. If CC gets hurt, the Yanks are stuck with one of the five highest paid major leaguers on their payroll. If he doesn’t, then he will opt out. I suppose they could get back one of their draft picks.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 23, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sort of

I hadn’t thought about it before but I think tom s. is right

They’re shouldering the injury risk for the first three years with a really big downside, but likely clear after that. As long as CC doesn’t break down in the first three years he’ll likely opt out and then transfer that risk to the new contract.

by birdo rojo on Dec 23, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Now, reporting no opt-out clause

But, I wholly disagree. The really big downside is what makes the clause a poison pill. The Yanks can afford it more than most, but the club gets three years of good production and an opt out or a career-changing injury that leaves them on the hook or tens of millions (if not 100 million) dollars. Those are high stakes, for the club and not the player.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 23, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No opt-out clause link

MLBTR is reporting it.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 23, 2008 5:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think we're talking past each other.

I guess I start from the premise that CC was never going to sign a 3-year contract. So if they wanted to get CC, they needed to offer what was apparently a long contract.

I don’t think the opt-out is the poison pill. I think the overall length of the contract is the poison pill. If CC tears his rotator cuff in his second year, it doesn’t matter if the contract has an opt-out clause or not, the yanks are screwed.

My point was just that the yanks are avoiding the risk that CC gets injured in the 4th, 5th, 6th year, etc., by providing him the opportunity to opt out after three years.
Risking that CC will not get injured in three years is much, much better than risking that he won’t get injured over eight years.

by tom s. on Dec 23, 2008 5:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The Yankees

are also assuming all the market risk. If the market for starting pitching goes down, they are locked in. If it goes up, their pitcher is gone. They lose the ability to have a bargain based on inflated prices, assuming CC remains a desirable commodity moving forward.

by Toddius on Dec 23, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

yes, although I would worry more about declining prices

dissuading CC from departing, rather than loss of a bargain from inflated prices.

I think the likelihood that CC will continue to pitch at or close to this level for the next eight years is slender.

by tom s. on Dec 23, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Something tells me

The last thing the Yankees are worried about is declining prices.

We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.

by KYCards on Dec 23, 2008 6:00 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Am I the only one...

who likes the nickname “Joe Masher”? Cause you know, the dude can mash.
Thank goodness the Tex drama is over… maybe we can now see all those moves that we were promised were waiting to see what happened.

by mattybobo on Dec 23, 2008 5:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

what about Idaho?

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Dec 23, 2008 7:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What about "The Beaver"

or just “Beav”? You know, because his name is Joe Mather, which is so close to Jerry Mathers.

There was Gibson in the Reds' dugout, visibly manhandling about three Reds and tossing them bodily out of the dugout and onto the field...He was the toughest athlete mentally I ever saw, and the greatest competitor. JACK BUCK

by ISawGodInGibby'sRightArm on Dec 25, 2008 1:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting thought

The Blue Jays now clearly don’t have the slightest chance at winning with those three teams in the division, I wonder how open they’d be to dealing Halladay? If there’s someone worth Rasmus, he’s it…

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Dec 23, 2008 9:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

maybe they are going to be a bigger supporter of

realignment

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Dec 23, 2008 9:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure Rasmus would be interesting for TOR

Their best prospect is a Left Hitting OFer Travis Snider who is VERY good. He is pretty comparable to Rasmus in terms of talent.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 23, 2008 10:05 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Snider is all bat.

A top 10 prospect is going to interest any team.

by azruavatar on Dec 23, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

No, I agree with that

But you have to agree a team that has a very poor outfield with no prospects would but a higher value to Rasmus.

BTW have you checked out minorleagueball.com recently. Lots of talk about Rasmus and Jones over there in the fan posts

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 23, 2008 11:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I've been over there.

There’s a lot of noise frankly. Very few people have an idea of what they’re talking about. Too much emphasis on whether such and such can hit for average or crap like that.

There are definitely some people who know what they’re talking about but it’s a lot of effort to sift through some of the garbage.

by azruavatar on Dec 24, 2008 9:14 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Yay
The newspaper reported that the team remained in contact with Fuentes throughout the Teixeira talks and have made him a top priority after those discussions ended.

The team being NotTheCardinals

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Dec 24, 2008 12:42 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I hate that team.

"I'm as nauseous as I've ever been. I have a terrible headache. My head is pounding. I feel like throwing up and I'm having trouble swallowing. And the beauty of it is, you want to feel like this every day." - Tony LaRussa

by adiueordie on Dec 24, 2008 2:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Any Chance of Keeping Albert?

With the Yankees spending like drunken sailors, I don’t see how the cards can keep Albert when his free agency begins. If the Yanks will pay Texiera 180 or whatever, then they might pay albert 300. There may never again be a star player that plays his entire career for one team unless the financial playing field is leveled.

victim of the sixties

by victim of the sixties on Dec 24, 2008 12:58 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

with all this talk of losing Albert

what’s the earliest we would lose him?

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 24, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he is not a FA until after 2011

I have a feeling a lot of people are going to need dental work over the next few years if this week is a hint of the teeth gnashing to come

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 24, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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