Joey Bombs, Meet Rick Ankiel

by thegodfather on Dec 22, 2008 12:26 PM EST Comment 29 comments

There has been a lot of discussion on whether or not we should trade Rick Ankiel. If not, should we extend him? He's got All Star potential, a great arm, and a fuzzy, warm story to tell the kids. Baseball, however, isn't all about heart warming stories. What we must begin to ask ourselves, is do we have someone who can make up for his production? The answer is yes, we have Joe Mather.

At age 29 with only a few years of hitting experience, Rick Ankiel is a valuable player. In 653 major league PAs so far, Rick has mashed 36 homers with 110 RBIs. I don't think anyone will argue about how much he will be worth to the team he plays for in 2009. The problem is, the Cardinals really need to consider the fact that he only has one contract year remaining. Is he worth signing to a long term deal? If not, should we trade him? If we do trade him, won't that hurt our offense? I don't want to pretend to have the answer to these questions, but I want to present an argument. Joe Mather, given regular at bats, will be at least as good as Rick Ankiel.

First, let's look at their AAA numbers (Rick's 2007, Mather's 2008):

Ankiel: 389 ABs .267/.312/.568 23.1 K% 0.28 BB/K .357 wOBA

Mather: 211 ABs .303/.395/.630 17.1 K% 0.89 BB/K .420 wOBA

Notes: Ankiel has more ABs and was still new as a hitter (Just so you know that I know)

Mather obviously put up some scary numbers in AAA. Based on my "concessions" above, you may doubt their relevance in relation to Ankiel. Here's another comparison, Rasmus 2007 in AA versus Mather 2007 in AA. (I know Mather is no Rasmus because Rasmus is younger..., but this still shows something)

Rasmus: 472 ABs .275/.369/.551 22.9 K% 0.65 BB/K .394 wOBA

Mather: 234 ABs .303/.380/.607 13.7 K% 0.91 BB/K .417 wOBA

Again, this cleary shows that Mather has some serious potential. He stuggled in his first stint in AAA in 2007, but rebounded in 2008. As opposed to Rick Ankiel, he also struggled in his first stint in the Show:

Mather 147 PAs .241/.306/.474 24.1 K% 0.38 BB/K .335 wOBA

Ankiel 190 PAs .285/.328/.535 23.8 K% 0.32 BB/K .364 wOBA

Rick's numbers show that he did not stuggle upon promotion to majors. Mather did. That line is well below Mather's past couple of years in the minors. We can almost certainly expect an improvement. His BABIP was only .258 in STL which we can expect to rise. Rick's 07 BABIP, on the other hand, was .317.

Is Joe Mather the next Cardinals great? Probably not. However, he is going to be a star player very soon. He has the potential to be better than Rick Ankiel. At age 26, he's got time to prove himself. He is under team control for longer than Rick Ankiel and he is cost controlled. Joe Mather is Rick Ankiel version 2.0. We can trade Rick Ankiel to address an area of need and the offense will not miss him. After all, we have Joey Bombs.

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Wow...

Rebirdnation8206, sorry for jacking your title structure. I definitely didn’t do it intentionally. My bad.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Dec 22, 2008 12:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well...

…My plan is to hire an internet lawyer for a relatively high internet dollar retainer and take your internet self to court…

…or not. Hell, it’s Christmas!

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 25, 2008 2:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's amazing how both

Ank and Joey do seem to show a difference in how much they “stuggle” when each reaches a new level ;)

But in all seriousness, I have a man crush on Mr. Bombs and would not mind in the least if he was a starter in RF for us next season. That being said, if we are to trade Ank, I want to make sure it is of fair value. I know some around here disagree with Ank for Kennedy straight up but that is of pretty reasonable value. Ank provides the Yanks with some power and production for a year and they have the ability to re-sign him if they so wish. And Kennedy has great potential and is cost controlled for the next five years. He could develop into a solid 3/4 pitcher in my opinion. Pulling Ian out of NY could also get him away from a high pressure environment where he could relax and focus more on his development. Plus, let’s face it. With the Yanks rotation he would start the year in AAA anyways.

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...

by RunninRedbird on Dec 22, 2008 12:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think NY would be the worst place for Rick to go

personally, but to me it’s probably more about not wanting to help the Yankees out with anything. Since they are the big dogs at the pound why feed them some more?

Not trying to bash your post but the way baseball is heading where only 2-3 teams can sign the high profile free agents it’s really leaving a bad taste in my mouth and has even made me question on how much longer I can follow and support MLB if this continues. What happens with Albert in a year or two will really help me with this decision…but not going to go any further since I am getting off topic.

But if we have to trade Rick, I do hope we get something for even value back. I’m not sure Kennedy is even value. I think he is hyped because he is a prospect of the “great Yankees” to be honest.

We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.

by KYCards on Dec 22, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

We should AT LEAST get even value back for him…if not a little bit of an overpay. We don’t need Kennedy near as much as the Yanks need Ankiel, and like you I don’t want to come out on the losing end of a deal with New York.

Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"

...and then it hits me!!

by cardzfanbub on Dec 22, 2008 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think the Yanks being the Big Dogs matters

I would trade him to a team in the AL rather them keep him in our league where he could still hurt us.

As for Kennedy, I’m not referring to his “hype”. I’m looking at his stats

The Yanks have rushed him through the minors, but he clearly has great potential. He’s not simply a hyped player. If he were in AAA last year, like he should have been we wouldn’t be discussing this trade at all. He’s easily than better than any SP we have in AAA right now, including Boggs. And he would be an upgrade over Jo-El IMHO.

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...

by RunninRedbird on Dec 22, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Disagree a little bit

New York would treat Ankiel well. He wouldn’t have to be the big masher on that team. Even with a drastically higher salary (8-10 mil?) he would be the 10th-12th highest paid player on the team at best. Insane if you think about it.

Kennedy is probably not even value. My preference would be for Hughes, even if we have to offer up a prospect to make it work.

by JWO on Dec 22, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll bite.

I’m a big fan of Joey also, and happen to agree with the thrust of your post. I think that Mather could come very close to putting up the same kind of numbers that Ankiel does, and much cheaper to boot. Both can play a good right field, I think, and both are going to be a little out of their depth in center. Still, very comparable players, minus the ridiculous arm of Ankiel.

I will also agree with the Cow above when he says he would rather have Phil Hughes than Kennedy. I know Kennedy has excellent numbers, but I think Hughes has a much greater ceiling. Kennedy is always going to be a low margin of error pitcher; his stuff just isn’t that good. I’ll take Hughes, thank you.

It was half my fault, and half the atmosphere.

by the red baron on Dec 22, 2008 2:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

My fear with trading Ankiel

Is somehow Felipe Lopez ended up in the OF when Ank got injured, so maybe TLR doesn’t know how to manage an Ankiel-less OF. My guess is A LOT of Chris Duncan.

by TheBirds on Dec 22, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would rather have Hughes as well

but it would probably take Ank+ to land him. I was looking at it as Ank for Kennedy straight up, which to me seemed more realistic than Ank for Hughes straight up.

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...

by RunninRedbird on Dec 22, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if Mather is Legit or not.

But I’d like to see him get the chance. LaRussa needs to prove to me that his Spring Training is actually a competition like he claims. If he is outplaying say…Chris Duncan, he shouldn’t be stuck behind him in the depth chart.

by TheBirds on Dec 22, 2008 2:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

platoon with Duncan

is the best Mather can hope for coming out of spring training IMHO (unless Duncan demonstrates that he is physically unable to play). Uncle Tony will find room in the outfield for C. Duncan.

by jjray on Dec 22, 2008 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uncle Tony is going to trade Duncan

Chris just has to demonstrate that he is recovered and has value. Somewhere, somebody in the AL needs a DH that can hammer 30 HR a year over 400 at bats.

by JWO on Dec 22, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uhh...

Uncle Tony can’t trade Duncan. That is Cousin Mo’s job. Besides Chris has never hammered 30 HR’s, nor has he been healthy enough to get 400 AB’s. So what makes you think he’s capable of doing this after coming off of cervical disc replacement surgery? And do you really think any AL teams will be clamoring at the opportunity to land him? Even if Dunc has a good ST, I see him starting the year in Memphis and Mather on the bench in STL (That is if Ank isn’t traded).

Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...

by RunninRedbird on Dec 22, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Splitting hairs

The capability is there. He’s only 27 years old. He had strong 2006 and 2007 seasons (22 and 21 homers respectively). If he’s healthy, I stand by my initial opinion – he’s good for 30 HRs in 400 ABs.

Now can he stay healthy for 400 ABs? Hard to say. But he did get in 375 at bats in 2007, only his second full season. And I’m not sure he could have gotten 400 ABs in 2008 even if he had stayed healthy (too many darn outfielders who need playing time).

I DO agree with you that Duncan won’t start in the majors unless the Cards trade a lot of assets in the next few months.

by JWO on Dec 22, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cousin Mo's?

Or Cousin Mose???

"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.

by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 25, 2008 2:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think a Mather/Skip platoon

would be a pretty good one, actually — particularly for the price. Skip’s probably worth more than Duncan simply b/c of defense unless Duncan once again becomes a .360 OBP/.500 SLG guy. We have no idea what, if anything, we’ll ever get from Duncan and, even if we did, I’m not sure he’s better than Skip.

by chuckb on Dec 22, 2008 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sometimes it's hard to just root for one team...

if Ankiel goes to another team, at least I’ll have 2 teams to root for!

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 22, 2008 4:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

also

Rick Ankiel has the potential of being better than Rick Ankiel… watch out for Rick Ankiel 3.0!

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 22, 2008 4:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

you just blew my mind

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Dec 22, 2008 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

by spants on Dec 22, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Who else wants Ank?

We’ve touched on the Yankees and it seems reasonable that they would want to trade for Ankiel, but what are our other options?

by aaron_notmiles on Dec 22, 2008 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That sounds like a good subject for an entire new thread...

by JWO on Dec 22, 2008 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i think the answer is

no one. like cd, rick is damaged goods until he demonstrates otherwise. my bet is cd and rasmus start in memphis. rick plays everyday and is either signed to an extension we can afford or gone. my guess is he gets dealt if he establishes his health and we keep rasmus.

i’m pro-mather and would hate to see him go. other than a few bad at bats (see lidge, brad), he looked good, especially in left field.

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Dec 22, 2008 8:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm 100% on board with this post

We should get something for Rick while he’s ‘under our control’. I too would rather see Hughes come back our way if we could throw in a prospect. However I do think Kennedy could be a great long term addition to this team as well.

Simply put…Mather is a stud. He will be a great everyday player, although he would most likely platoon w/Skip in ‘09. I don’t have any link to back this up, but I remember some talk about Mather during a broadcast last season. Apparently he is regarded as the best overall athlete in the Card’s system. That stood out to me, and watching the way he plays for a man of his size…I can see why he’s been noticed as such.

"Your mom likes Albert Pujols" - Happy Joe

by fatbellyjefferson on Dec 22, 2008 10:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Daryl Jones

is the best athlete in the Cards’ system and the next best would probably be ranked #14. No one’s close to Jones as an athlete.

by chuckb on Dec 22, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

Define athlete.

Jones is well-rounded enough to give him a high ceiling, but “best athlete” without any definition is an empty platitude, no matter how often Baseball America invokes it.

The guys that play SS would carry a lot more dexterity. Colby Rasmus is a better defender, has greater power ceiling, and gives away less in speed than Jones does in defensive ability, arm strength, power, or batting eye . There are also better burners in the system than Jones..

“Best athletes” almost always play SS or CF. Jones does not project for either. Tyler Greene is one hell of an athlete, he’s just missing the pitch recognition..

by siddfynch on Dec 23, 2008 12:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My apologies to Baseball America

They actually list Colby Rasmus as the best athlete in the system.

Of course, the critique still stands – undefined, it’s a term without real value.

by siddfynch on Dec 23, 2008 12:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Forgot to post this in the article

Ankiel’s 07 debut: LD rate 14.9% GB rate 44.0%
Mather’s 08 debut: LD rate 21.6% GB rate 30.4%

I think Mather really just hit into some bad luck in his stint with the Cards last season. Sure, Ankiel was performing over his head, but Joey wasn’t lucky at all.

The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.

by thegodfather on Dec 23, 2008 1:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs