On trading Ankiel
by KYCards on Dec 21, 2008 5:10 AM EST
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PrintI have seen many people on this site and others saying let's trade Ankiel for this minor league pitcher or this 5th starter from this team. Maybe I am the only one who thinks this...but ...who says the Cardinals can't re-sign Ankiel? I mean is it realy a forgone conclusion that Rick will want to sign with a Yankees or Red Sox for the biggest payday? Is it for sure that the Cards can't offer a competitive offer for him to stay a Cardinal?
Yeah I realize that Darth Boras is his agent and he goes for the biggest payday, but is this for sure going to be the case with Rick? Who says Rick wants to leave the comforts of St. Louis anyways? Has Rick been talking in the media about wanting to play with other teams or talking about a big payday? I'm all for getting something for Rick if it were a sure thing that he will leave for good after the season for greener pastures but is everybody sure this is the case?
I could be over reacting, but this whole thing to me reminds me of what teams like the Pirates, Royals, A's or even the Twins would do when one of their players is going to become a free agent. Are we really becomming one of those teams? I mean I know St. Louis can't compete with the money of the East Coast teams or Chicago & L.A. but is it coming to the point to where the Cardinals are going to start trading away their good players right before they become free agents because they don't think they can afford them or maybe they just are not willing to spend the money to keep players? And should we start worrying about Pujos leaving in a couple of years??
Back to the Ankiel situation. Maybe it's just me but I would think for all the Cardinals origanization did for Rick that maybe he might be willing to stay and sign a long term contract (for a fair price)?? I mean it can't be the fear of the dealing with Boss Hogg Boras, because Mo didn't seem to have a problem talking to him when it came to re-siging Lohse. So I'm not sure why so many people are trying to push Rick out the door for any young pitcher we can get. I think we should think of this...does Rick want to be pushed out? I am probably the only one but this really confuses me because I think Rick is going to be a great power hitter for at least the next 3-4 years and I think it would be a mistake to just trade him away because of the **THOUGHT** of not being able to re-sign him. I really hope Mo gets some kind of feel on what Rick might be planning on doing when he becomes a free agent before just trading him away for some team's 4th starter.
I know we have a glut of outfielders now and someone has to go....but the thought of an outfield of Ludwick, Rasmus, Ankiel for the next 2 years sounds good, great even, I would hate to take out one of those pieces because of the thought that we have to.
I could be wrong but would it be so terrible to maybe offer Rick a contract to see if he might sign it before they trade him away for a overhyped Yankee pitching prospect??? I would hate to read several years down the road that Rick would have re-signed with the Cardinals if they would have offered him something that could work for both sides but they traded him away before they could even really start to talk business.
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My thoughts
I am with you on most of what you say…but I think what people are going after most often are trades that they think will help the Cardinals over the long run:
1) Trade from a position of surplus (OF) for a position of need (starting pitching)
2) Take a look at who might be the most wanted by other teams without giving up the farm (Rasmus) or the possible MVP candidate (Ludwick)…
I think that leaves Ankiel, personaly. He’s a lot better offer than Schumaker, Barton, Duncan, Stavinoha, Mather, Jay, Jones, etc.
ankiel is also a potential MVP candidate.
Given that he can play a passable CF, and had a 1.000+ OPS in innings 1-6 in 2008… From a pure entertainment value standpoint, it doesn’t get better than Rick Ankiel.
We could easily have a new MV3 in 2009.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
completely agree...
on not trading ankiel. I think he would be willing to sign for a fair deal. I think some people are underestimating him just a little bit. Here’s a guy who that over the past 2 seasons has started just 140 games while compiling 595 AB’s (55 walks) and has 36 HR’s and 110 RBI’s. If we have to trade him I’d be okay with that as long as we got fair value in return, but a guy like Ian Kennedy is not fair value. Andy Sonnastine, on the other hand, that would have been interesting.
I hold the same opinion of Ryan Ludwick. Why not have an outfield of Rasmus, Ludwick, and Ankiel? My god, that is some serious firepower!! I think both Rick and Luddy would be willing to sign fair deals, so give it until about June or so and start negotiating some 3 or 4 year deals with these guys. If Daryl Jones or Brett Wallace has to take the place of someone we can always trade ank and/or luddy later. Hell, they’ll have more value later anyway after they’ve proved that they can put up big numbers consistently, especially if they are signed for a couple extra years.
I hate winter!!!!
by The Ghost of Todd Burns on Dec 21, 2008 11:32 AM EST reply actions
“I could be over reacting, but this whole thing to me reminds me of what teams like the Pirates, Royals, A’s or even the Twins would do when one of their players is going to become a free agent.”
The Cardinals have extended both Molina and Wainwright in recent years. They don’t develop that many players so I think this is more about dealing from depth to fill a need than not wanting to sign Ankiel. The problem is that the Cardinal fan base is wildly unrealistic in a) their expectations of what Ankiel can do moving forward b) his health and c) his actual value to the team when they have cheaper, nearly as good cost controlled players.
exactly
logic & reason go out the window when it comes to one Rick Ankiel. some of us just can’t see clearly when it comes to the guy. they’ll never see him as less than the second coming of Babe Ruth. and there’s nothing you can do or say that will change their minds.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Value Versus Need
I have a great deal of respect for Rick Ankiel. But baseball is a business and Rick knows that as well as anyone. The Cardinals have a LOT of talent moving up through the minor league system, with several very good pieces almost ready to enter the majors (Rasmus and Mather the best examples). Other players like Wallace may similarly slot into the outfield. Bottom line, the outfield is crowded.
Dealing Ankiel (position of strength) to fill a position of weakness makes lots of sense. If the Cardinals could secure, for example, a pitcher like the Yankees Phil Hughes, it benefits both ball clubs. Cards get good young starting pitching talent. Yankees get reliable outfield production at good cost (at least for one year).
Card fans will always applaud Ricky for coming back after a meltdown a few years ago. He’s turned himself into a good ball player. Now we need to cash in on that investment and move forward.
agreed
-I think that Rasmus could fill in where Rick was, and any combo of OF’s we have can fill in here and there, we can save money on outfielder’s and spend it towards pitching or middle infield where we lack the most. Don’t forget the depth we have in the minors also, were stacked we have to trade someone, and rick’s luck is up since we have so many lefthanded hitters. He should of all people understand its a business when his Agent is someone who he is.
-I don’t see why so many people want hughes or kennedy though, I would be weasling something away from the Rays hopefully, with Edwin Jackson gone, he was a wildcard in terms of ability the other pitchers on their staff projected better from what I read. I think we could get a real good player from them, their drafting team is badass.
by from First to Third on Dec 21, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think we need Ankiel
He will cost a lot, we need pitching, and we have an outfield surplus. Check this out:
Ankiel 2007 AAA: 389 ABs .267/.312/.568 .28 BB/K 23.1 K%
Mather 2008 AAA: 211 ABs .303/.395/.630 .89 BB/K 17.1 K%
Granted, it is a smaller sample size, but who is to say 26-year-old Mather can’t at least match Ankiel’s production for little cost?
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
+1
And he’ll be under team control for a lot longer
by from First to Third on Dec 21, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the link to the article
It does make a lot of sense. And it’s probably right, Boras will more than likely try and make Ankiel into a major star free agent for the winter of 2009 looking for the biggest payday.
I still think Mo should talk about a contract with Boras sometime before spring training (if possible) and if the demand is too high then yeah we might as well trade Rick.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
I'd be happy with Sonnanstine
If the Rays were willing to part with him. But I’m not sure they’d take Ankiel for what could be a one-year rental in their case. At this stage though, I trust the Cards management to be patient.
The market is coming to them, not the other way around.
A deal with the Rays
would be nice. Maybe it has to be bigger than a straight up trade. I still would like to get Zobrist. Maybe something like: Ankiel, Parisi or Boggs, and a third player for Sonnanstine and Zobrist. Ben could be listed as an OF’er, but still get plenty of time in the infield. Working with Jose might help Zobrinst improve his D and he can take over for Kennedy in 2010. Hell maybe Greene for that matter.
Sonny is not out there.
After trading Jackson, the Rays are not going to give sonnanstine away. Also, the Rays FO and fanbase are not a bunch of fools too enamored with “tools” to see that sonnanstine is a damn good pitcher already. He would cost us more than Ankiel straight up.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
I don't really get...
…the fascination with Sonnanstine. He’s a back-of-the-rotation starter without the upside to climb much beyond that label. I like that he doesn’t walk many batters, but the result of being around the strike zone all the time is that he gives up lots of hits. Last season:
IP H R ER HR BB K ERA LgERA ERA+ WHIP
193.3 212 105 94 21 37 124 4.38 4.44 102 1.288
And this:
BA OBP SLG OPS
.277 .312 .446 .758
Those numbers are pretty unspectacular, especially given that he pitched in front arguably the best defense in MLB.
I’m okay with trading Ankiel, but I’d like a guy with better upside in return. I still like Phil Hughes.
What upside is:
In the minors, Sonnanstine regularly posted excellent numbers, supported by extremely good K/BB ratios. He has improved rather than regressed during his time in the majors, he is cost controlled, and he could easily continue to improve.
Considering the rays were the best defense, his luck could even improve next year as he mildly underperformed his FIP.
As for Hughes, he’s got potential, but he isn’t even as good as Sonnanstine is right now. His track record in the minors has some very good stuff and some mediocrity. His K rate is better than Sonnanstine, but his K/BB has never even approached Sonnanstine’s. He’s toolsy and he has a ton of potential, but he’s a product of the NY hype machine as much as he is a great prospect. Also, it’s unlikely that Ankiel will net us Phil Hughes.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
And he would be DD's favorite pitcher,
this side of some sort of Duncanstein that he literally cobbled together from other scrap-heap pitchers.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
I don't think...
…he’s a very good fit for Duncan, personally. He’s a soft-tossing flyball pitcher.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 23, 2008 8:31 AM EST up reply actions
Sonnanstine...
…may continue to marginally improve, but he’s not going to change his pitching personality. He’s a pitch-to-contact guy that doesn’t induce a lot of ground balls. That’s a bad combination that doesn’t bode well for the future.
Yes, his K/BB ratio is good…but again, it’s because he’s around the strike zone so much. When guys do hit him, they hit him hard.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 22, 2008 10:21 AM EST reply actions
What about SUSTAINABLE RESULTS
is so hard to understand?
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Nothing...
….about SUSTAINABLE RESULTS is hard to understand. Where we disagree is in the likelihood of Sonnanstine sustaining those results.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 22, 2008 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
except while I point to actual evidence to support my position,
you say things like “Yes, his K/BB ratio is good…but again, it’s because he’s around the strike zone so much. When guys do hit him, they hit him hard.”
Which is basically stilted gibberish.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Except...
…that it’s not. I based my “hit him hard” comment on the slugging percentages he gives up:
.446 in 2008
.482 in 2007
He’s giving up a lot of hits…and a lot of extra base hits. That’s what I meant by “they hit him hard.”
His numbers in the minors were good. Lots of guys with average stuff but good command post good minor league numbers. Many of them get exposed in the majors. Sonnanstine has been okay…but put him in front of a lesser defense and watch his opposing BA way north of his current career mark of .284.
He’s just not that impressive.
by sabertooth5185 on Dec 23, 2008 8:35 AM EST up reply actions
You sure?
A 3.91 FIP for a 25 year old in the AL East doesn’t sound too bad to me.
As for getting hit “hard,” his LD rate last year was 17. Wainwright’s was 19.2. Lincecum’s was 20.8%.
He’s not an ace by any means, but he’d be a solid addition to our rotation and a good investment in the future.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 23, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
Sonnanstine is a flyballing,
soft-tossing, great ratio guy with good control. The SLGA numbers support your statement somewhat, but they have nothing to do with him “being around the strike zone.” His control is good, and while he throws junk, he doesn’t walk many as that statement implies.
In the beginning, we were comparing Sonnanstine to Phil Hughes, and I think the edge still goes to Sonnanstine as long as Hughes remains the Yankees young breakout candidate with no big league track record.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Was that intended
to be a reply to sabertooth?
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 23, 2008 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
The ability to re-sign him isn't the problem
It’s our lack of starting pitching (especially of the cost-controlled variety) that is the problem. As someone mentioned before, major-league outfield is a position of strength.
I, for one, don’t buy into the Second Coming of Musial/Ruth mythology that has been woven for Ankiel. Warm, fuzzy feelings don’t win baseball games. If he could help bring us a young, cheap, good pitcher, then I’d trade him in a heartbeat.
Kindly visit my Webbed log.
by Anonymous Communist on Dec 22, 2008 1:15 PM EST reply actions
Just to point something out
Nowhere in my post above did I make any reference to Ankiel becomming the “second coming of Babe Ruth” nor do I feel that way. I have read a few comments leading to this opinion for some….that’s not mine at all.
I am not totally against trading Rick IF we can get back a piece that will help our team for 2009 and beyond….but my original point was.. I just think trading Rick because of who his agent is and the thought that we can’t afford him….was kind of a silly. But as the days go by and seeing how Boras is trying to bleed every headline and penny out of the big market teams for his services….that thought might not be as silly after all.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
I am referring to Teixeria when I said "his services" in the 2nd paragraph.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
Re: "the second coming of Ruth"
I didn’t mean you specifically… A poster above made reference to it, and it’s sort of become an unfortunate conventional wisdom among certain segments of fans. Sort of like the “best fans in baseball” nonsense.
Kindly visit my Webbed log.
by Anonymous Communist on Dec 22, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
for the record neither do i
but i do know the throngs of fans that fill the seats in Busch III do & will call for MO’s head if he is in fact traded.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
And that's too bad
Because Ankiel is replaceable.
It’s one thing for a fan to become attached to players, but another to have that attachment cloud your reason.
Kindly visit my Webbed log.
by Anonymous Communist on Dec 23, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
quibble
Actually, I think having that attachment cloud your reason is what being a fan is all about. We all knew rationally that the Cards weren’t that great last year – but that didn’t stop us from living it up with every gritty win and drowning in Franklins with every frustrating loss. It’s the emotional attachment that makes us fans, not general managers (if Mo let attachment cloud his reasoning, then we’d have a problem).
I’m all about rational analysis – that’s one of the things that makes this site so great. And even though I know rationally that Ank is replaceable and our ML outfield is ridiculously deep, I also know I’m going to be disappointed if they trade him. Trading Ank (+) for Phil Hughes would most likely make our team better and more balanced, yes, and might add a win or two (and potentially more beyond ‘09), but I also just really enjoy watching Rick Ankiel play baseball in a Cardinals uniform. I like the story. In the end, I’d definitely rather the team win, but it’s not the only reason I watch the games.
I could get attached to Phil Hughes...
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
I think that "ankiel is replaceable"
is a big assumption to make. We THINK that he is replaceable by one of Rasmus or Mather, but there is no proof of that at this time.
There’s as much proof that Rick is a 40 HR hitting CF (which is pretty tough to replace) than there is that Colby Rasmus will have an OPS over .750 next year. Colby is also just as unproven in terms of his ability to stay healthy- he missed time in both 2007 and 2008 for injury/sickness.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
I did my best
to prove that Ankiel is replaceable in my fanpost on the subject. Ankiel is also an injury risk. I’d say that going into 2009 Mather is the one who will be able to most closely mimic Ank’s numbers, but Rasmus should best that going forward. It’s no sure thing to say that Ankiel is replaceable, but it’s pretty darn close.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 23, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
What type of Free Agent would Ankiel be?
Sort of a random divergence from the topic, but I was wondering. Can anyone provide some data as to what kind of Free Agent would be if the Cardinals hold him until next year? I ask because, if Ank qualifies as a Type “A”, we offer arbitration, and he refuses, its potentially a very nice 1st round pick.
Might this be a smarter move than swapping him this off season? We grab (hopefully) a top flight starting pitcher in the draft, and simply shift the available outfield talent into the OF in 2010. Thoughts?
It would depend greatly
on what he did in 2009. With his injury history he would need to play in 150 games and put up a breakout season with 30+ homers and 100+ RBI’s to be Type A, which is not out of the question if he actually were to play 150 games. I just don’t have faith that he can stay healthy, and I’d rather deal him now and get back a young starter than to wait and hope that he ends up being a type A. If he’s hurt all year next year it wouldn’t make sense to offer him a contract, and we’ll end up getting nothing for him in compensation.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
The Boras thing
isn’t insignificant but it neglects the question of whether Ankiel is someone that would even be in our interest to resign at the end of the season. About a month ago, I asked the question What’s Rick Worth? in terms of what he’ll be worth next year as a free agent. I’m not sure it’s going to make a lot of sense to give him a 4 year, $40+ M contract given the fact that he’ll be 31 next season and OF is our deepest position. It still seems as though it’ll make more sense to spend that money elsewhere rather than give it to a nice OF w/ power and a big arm who’s not much better than league-average. Setting aside the Boras thing — which matters, btw — I just don’t think it’ll make sense to sign him even if we’re able to.
Exactly
We don’t need him now when he’s “free,” so why would we want to be paying him $10M a season when we need him even less?
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 23, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
I like
JWO’s idea. We let his contract run out, offer arb. and when Boras talks him in to not taking it we get a couple good draft picks. It’s a win-win. We get Rick the Stick for another year while we give Joey-Bombs/Cheez Rasmus another year to adjust to the major league level. Then on top of that we’re not holding Ankiel past his prime years either. The person we ought to think about trading in this group of talented OFs is Ludwick because we’re selling high, he probably had his peak year last year, and he could get us a little more in a trade than Rick can right now. But that’s a different post….
I seriously doubt that Rick
will be a type-A free agent. He’s probably type-B which means a sandwich pick only. It’s not nothing, but he’s not going to be worth 2 picks.
That,
and if he gets hurt and ends up a Type B, the team will be in a Catch-22 with arbitration. The club doesn’t really need him going forward but to lose him for nothing doesn’t make a lot of sense either.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
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