Tuesday Notes
Well, that was weird.
If there's an immediately apparent reason for not offering Braden Looper arbitration I haven't quite come upon it yet—the Cardinals simply do not have enough starters, as currently constructed, to get through a season without molding their fifth starter out of replacement pitcher-loaf, and there's no reason to start out in that hole when the worst-case scenario is that Looper accepts arbitration and is paid the market rate for an innings-eating starter.
And if the Cardinals aren't interested in him... well, he's probably not interested in them, either, and I've got to imagine that someone will be ready to hand him two or three years on the open market, particularly since he wouldn't cost them a draft pick. Since 4.16 to 4.94 seems like a reasonable band of expectations for Kyle Lohse's ERA over the next four years, the team's unwillingness to fill a major hole with Looper at a similar price makes me utterly confused about the team's valuation of their new long-term third starter in the first place. Either the Cardinals have wasted a shot at a supplemental draft pick, here, or they just do not put a lot of value in bulk innings.
Of the, uh, other players strangely not offered arbitration, Randy Wolf and Joe Beimel seem to be the best possible fits for the Cardinals, but I'm not sure I like either player. Wolf gets a lot of strikeouts, and was solid last year, but his 33 start years in 2003 and 2008 bookend four in which he made no more than 23 starts, and I'm not sure signing another injury risk is a great way to fill out a rotation that needs bulk as much as it needs everything else.
Beimel had a very pretty ERA last year, and his splits against right-handers are better than the average LOOGY's, but his strikeouts and walks do little to inspire confidence that that's going to hold up in the future. If he can keep allowing, as he has in 2007 and 2008, one home run every 116 innings, then I guess I'll be wrong. But if I am the GM of a team looking for a LOOGY who has decided it can't afford Braden Looper, I'm going to take my chances looking elsewhere.
I was looking for the Cardinals' 2009 picture to clear up a little after last night's deadline, but now it's only gotten hazier. If Mozeliak is saving his pennies for something in particular, it looks like we won't know the shape of the team we'll be rooting for until after next week's Winter Meetings.
##
Meanwhile, the Astros were kind enough to take the year's most terrifying prospective Dave Duncan Reclamation Project off the table. $2 million is actually not a bad deal for a guy who's been marginally effective when he's managed to pitch, but if Randy Wolf is what you would call a health risk Mike Hampton is a health guarantee—he is likely to be unhealthy enough that you'll have to set his rehab starts in the major leagues to get maximum value out of him. Aside from that he also has a frighteningly low strikeout rate to worry about, which was even a concern during his last healthy stint with the Braves.
##
Finally, this piece about Ron Gant's debut on the Hall of Fame ballot brought back memories about my beloved 1996 Cardinals. The what-could-have-been tone—I'm guessing this was written for the Braves.MLB site—seems a bit forced, though; I mean, the guy followed that Hall of Fame-career-ending dirtbike accident with OPS+'s of 145 and 125, and stole 59 bases over his next two years. If he got in another dirtbike accident between 1996 and 1997... well, that explains a lot.
I don't remember ur-prospect Ron Gant, though; my memory, like a lot of peoples' here, I imagine, is of the one guy hacktastic enough to make the Busch Stadium faithful grudgingly enjoy Ray Lankford's work at the plate. If Lankford had had Ron Gant 1997 as a foil for his entire career there would be a giant statue in his honor outside beautiful new Ray Lankford Stadium.
0 recs |
168 comments
Comments
Gant and Loop
I always found Gant to be entertaining in some kind of weird way. Something about his complete disregard for a calm, controlled swing appealed to me for some reason. I can’t explain it, and perhaps I shouldn’t try. He was frustrating, but a fun sort of frustrating…
The only thing I can figure w/ Looper is that the front office wants him nowhere near the 2009 Cardinals. They feel set with their rotation, and don’t want Looper and don’t care about a supp. pick. It doesn’t make much sense to me, but it’s as close as I can get to making sense without somehow involving an Illuminati conspiracy of some kind. This was a strange and foolish decision, one that places a huge burden on Carpenter’s extremely volatile health.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 2, 2008 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I initially agreed with you about Looper
But since I can’t come up with a rational explanation of the deal myself, it makes me think that Mo knows something I don’t. When faced with interpreting this move as an incredibly incompetent failure or a precursor to something better, I’ll give Mo the benefit of the doubt. (at least for now, based on his limited – but good – track record).
by Ray Lankford on Dec 2, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I can't help but agree...
The only answer I can come up with is “someone must know something,” or “let’s hope someone knows something.” And I wonder if not hearing about new leads on this front may be the product of MO’s blow up with Colorado during the Matt Holliday fiasco… maybe secrecy is a new tool Mo has afforded himself? However, the worst of this is we now have a new hole in our swiss cheese… and as much as I like swiss cheese… holes are less cheese and more hole.
It's not what you do, It's who you do...
by pattimagee on Dec 2, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There are a lot of quality FA pitchers this offseason
maybe the goal is to sneak in and sign AJ Burnett while big-spending GMs are distracted talking to Sabathia and Sheets. If they get Burnett, they probably don’t have much need for Loop, except maybe as a reliever
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 2, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I dont think anyone is distracted by Sheets at this point.
by rlgosnell on Dec 2, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Is he injured and I don't know about it?
He had a fantastic season last season, and if he’s really that badly overshadowed by Sabathia, then we should be chasing him.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 2, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Apparently the word is that the injury history is a very big deal to most teams.
I havent really heard of any teams pursuing him. A 2 year deal would be ok, but paired with a 2 year deal for Looper instead of the 4 yeard deal for Lohse it would have been even better. Oh well.
by rlgosnell on Dec 2, 2008 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If he's undervalued
maybe he’s a buy low candidate on a 1 or 2 year deal for the Cardinals…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 3, 2008 9:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I remember laughing out loud one time
when reading Gant’s quote that “I think of myself as a disciplined hitter.”
His post-1996 performance didn’t give me much to smile about, but that quote plus ’96 leave me some pleasant memories.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 2, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I liked the guy
I mean, he didn’t seem like a jerk or anything.
It’s interesting to note that his OBP-minus-BA actually comes out to a respectable .080. The guy did draw a respectable number of walks, its just that he was so busy making outs in other ways that he wasn’t able to make full use of his relatively decent batting eye.
Boy did he take some hacks in his day though.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 2, 2008 2:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
Gant was the pre-McGwire type of slugger Redbird fans didn’t get to see alot of. Took a lot of hacks, sometimes they paid off in a big hit, mostly they didn’t. He was fun to watch at times, brutally embarassing most of the others. Also a liability in the field. But for some reason I enjoyed having him on the club. I can’t give you any rhyme or reason why…call it Tommy Herr syndrome I guess.
"Wherever you go, there you are"
by brik on Dec 2, 2008 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i remember riding in the car with my dad...
when i was 8-ish listening to the game on the radio with the bases loaded and 2 outs and gant “swung and missed by 4 feet…” classic
by bigmcq16 on Dec 3, 2008 1:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Flexibility vs Supp Pick
I really can’t find much fault in Mo’s decision. The chances of Looper accepting arbitration would’ve been next to nil, so the front office’s decision not to offer Looper arb says a) they value a little more payroll flexibility higher than a supplemental pick, and b) they aren’t any more interested in bringing Looper back as a FA than any other pitcher on the market.
by Fred Head on Dec 2, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Illuminati...
defy, cards, defy. hey logic --- you suck.
by effin fisk on Dec 2, 2008 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I just finished reading Angels & Demons on Saturday.
Loved it. Much better than DaVinci Code. And it’s being made into a movie.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 2, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The speech by the carmenlengo
in the middle of the book about the role of science in relationship to religious beliefs was one of the finest pieces of prose I’ve ever read.
by azruavatar on Dec 2, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That was beautiful
Dan Brown can really write when he wants to.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 2, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely agree.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 2, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
here's a link to the speech, for those interested. i haven't read it yet
http://itscout.blogspot.com/2006/01/angels-and-demons-science-versus.html
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 2, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This reads, to me, like an appeal to ignorance. Science and religion don’t have to be mutually exclusive, and religion isn’t the only way to find hope or moral foundation.
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I do appreciate the link and discussion, by the way!
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it reads to me as a misinterpretation of science. or, as implying all science is "extremist".
of course, it’s fair to say that implying all religion is “extremist” (and not just in the violent terrorist way) is a misinterpretation, too.
isn’t a statistical approach to science an a priori admission that not everything is knowable?
and even if you don’t agree with the carmenlengo’s ideas, i agree that it’s quality writing.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 3, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
true
we can’t even perceive everything
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love it as well..
…I like da Vinci Code as well, but Angels and Demons is more exciting to me. I’ve read it 5 times, and the first time took me about a day and a half.
I’m excited for the movie, but I worry about how its going to work. Like da Vinci, A&D really has no true climax, more like 4 stacked on top of each other. That really killed the da Vinci Code movie, along with, well…a lot of other serious problems. We shall see.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 2, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
IMO, the problem with the DaVinci Code movie
was that it was almost imperative you first read the book before you saw the movie. I actually liked the movie but couldn’t help thinking if I hadn’t already read the book, I would have been lost.
I fear Angels & Demons might suffer the same fate. Although, it’s a much better story and is much more action packed, Brown just stuffs so much information into the story that if the movie were to address it all, it’d be like a 5 hour movie.
However, I think A&D will make a pretty good movie. The big reveal at the end is much better than the one in DaVinci and I frankly I just think the story will play better as a movie.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 2, 2008 7:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
alright, whats this A&D book about?
i love supernatural stuff & if that’s what it is i’m def gonna read it.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Dec 2, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
just read the illuminatus! trilogy
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 2, 2008 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
after all these years
i still haven’t seen the fnords :(
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 2, 2008 10:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, I just finished reading A&D this weekend
if you haven’t read it, I’ll write up a little post on Hypertexation with some pictures and stuff.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 2, 2008 11:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
sounds good to me
my roommate has that book sitting over by the window
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, it's not really supernatural
If you’ve read or seen The DaVinci Code, you’ll have an idea who Robert Langdon is and what the stories about him are about. If you don’t know, he’s a symbologist who is a professor at Harvard and seems to get mixed up in these murder mysteries that deal with old organizations like the Illuminati or the Free Masons.
Basically, the story is about the battle between science and the Catholic church all wrapped around a terrorist attack on The Vatican.
But, it is a great read, I recommend it.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 2, 2008 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it is
exactly the same as davinci code. i get them confused all the time
by bigmcq16 on Dec 3, 2008 1:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No offense to the Dan Brown lovers intended...
…but the anti-Catholicism that undergirds his work is disturbing and mostly a-historical.
…speaking of history…he writes as if he could fall into a history pool and come out dry as nun’s gusset. Dan Brown’s novels are historical novels for people who are ignorant of history (which is most of us, btw, not claiming to be special).
…I find his writing to be less than inspiring. His characterizations are OK…but not particularly engrossing. And his plots are just ridiculous. I enjoy a good suspense novel as much as the next guy…but I need a little bit of plausibility to ‘buy in’ to the story. Brown keeps jolting me back to reality.
Just ringing a dissenting note here…
D.GOOCH
-- GOOCH
by GOOCH24 on Dec 3, 2008 1:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Da Vinci Code...
Is OK. Just OK. Everything is far, far too convenient, like a bad episode of MacGuyver. The clincher to me was how almost every one of his French characters had last names that translated to their personalities or their relationships with other people. Tsk, tsk, tsk!
That being said, it was tremendously entertaining for the fluff it is.
by mattisnotfrench on Dec 3, 2008 1:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i've never seen or read the Da Vinci Code
and i didn’t know A&D was based on the same type of story. i was thinking it was actual Angels & Demons, which would have been really cool. anyway having seen the trailer i deff want to read the book. i wasn’t really interested in the Da Vinci Code but that looks & sounds a lot better.
and Tackle i look forward to reading your review & seeing the pics & stuff. just make sure to post the link or email me the link.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Dec 3, 2008 3:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he is a bit of a hack… which doesn’t mean he can’t be entertaining
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You're being too nice.
He’s a total hack.
by spants on Dec 3, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes
I’m a nice person… it’s just aggravating seeing people who aren’t that talented making boatloads of cash, so I try not to get too worked up over it.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
see, to me, it's far more frustrting watching extremely talented writers
throwing out hack work.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 3, 2008 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I suppose I'm a snob.
But most people want to read the hack work. We don’t have the greatest literacy skills in the U.S., as evidenced by the proliferation of books by Dan Brown. I read DaVinci code. Its plot was predictable and trite, and the writing was geared to be more accessible. But hey, I guess all sorts of readers need to be entertained.
by spants on Dec 4, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW I didn’t read The Da Vinci Code and found the movie both understandable and enjoyable. I personally think its perceived failures as a film are a result of darkness (subject and cinematography), runtime, and general controversy.
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One thing really good about the movie
is you get to actually see what he’s talking about. Unless you know exactly what The Last Supper looks like or are constantly going to the computer to look it up, you’re left a little to your imagination. Same in A & D. The statues and obelisks and stuff are sometimes hard to imagine so the movie will be a help in those instances.
As far as runtime, I’m assuming you thought the movie was too long, but the thing is, it had to be….and they still left a lot out. There’s just a lot of information there.
And for those that want to poo poo it and say it’s fiction or not 100% accurate, who cares? Last time I checked, he’s not writing history textbooks nor are his novels marketed as such. They’re found in the Fiction section for a reason. And he doesn’t just “make stuff up”. Does he stretch some things and use things that make the story work? Sure. But, who the hell doesn’t? And why is that such a big deal?
For Pete’s sake, have fun with it. Enjoy it for what it’s worth.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 3, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I said I enjoyed it. It was poorly-received by the media, though, and I don’t think many of those who saw and liked it would guess that it was #2 behind Pirates of the Caribbean in worldwide gross for its release year.
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 11:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I read Holy Blood Holy Grail
supposedly the guy who wrote Davinci Code etc. pretty much just read this book and a couple of others and sort of ripped off their info…. they sued him and lost
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 2, 2008 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Then I guess he didn't rip them off.
But hasn’t it kinda been proven that there really aren’t anymore original ideas? Everything is pretty much a rip-off of an earlier work in some form or another?
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 2, 2008 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I don’t know much about the trial, etc. plus that book was written way before davinci code, so it’s not like he swooped in and stole someone’s fresh new material
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 12:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Plagiraism doesn't have an expiration date.
If that’s what Brown did. I haven’t read this book that is mentioned, so I can’t speak to the merits. But there’s nothing more OK with stealing an older work versus a fresh one. Plagiarism is plagiarism. D.GOOCH
-- GOOCH
by GOOCH24 on Dec 3, 2008 1:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you could argue that there hasn't been an original idea since Ancient Greece, however.
And they were mostly just retelling oral myths that existed before their time
Creatively repackaging stock characters, old mythos, and ancient connections is a critical element of making any literature.
I’m not saying that it’s ok to just sit back and blandly redo things that have already been done, but total creativity is virtually nonexistant and overrated. (I’m agnostic on the da vinci code, as I’ve never read the book nor seen the movie).
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 3, 2008 1:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
From what I've read
about Holy Blood Holy Grail, it is a novel that is based largely on historical accounts and historical references. There isn’t a plot; it simply hypothesizes the idea of the possibiltiy of a royal bloodline. On the other hand, The Da Vinci Code is a historical fiction novel with characters and a developing storyline and plot. No doubt that Dan Brown used HBHG for the ideas in the Da Vinci Code (he even uses the authors of the book as the name for the character Leah Teabing) but it wasn’t a direct plagiarism of their writing.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 3, 2008 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
true
I think those guys who wrote that book were just mad that they didn’t get the recognition, and that Dan Brown’s fiction made him a lot of money.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
anyone see these weirdo t-shirts at Macy's?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 2, 2008 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The source site looks crackpot at a glance IMO. It takes all types, though!
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 11:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it would be weird though
if Macy’s was actually selling those shirts.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh, that guy is completely crazy
it’s a conspiracy theory website, largely. You see graffiti ads for it up all over Austin, TX where he’s based.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 3, 2008 7:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
once again I'll ask
why we’re hijacking a perfectly good thread to talk about a novel and the relationship between science and religion?
by chuckb on Dec 3, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not much else going on
in the world of baseball perhaps?
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 3, 2008 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone else notice
This thread about DaVinci Code and religion is on a Cardinal website? nyuk nyuk nyuk
"Wherever you go, there you are" - Buckaroo Bonzai
by brik on Dec 4, 2008 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ron Gant
Do you think he will make Beyond the Box Score’s Ray Lankford Wing of the Hall of Fame?
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
by memphiscub on Dec 2, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thank you for getting back to
the topic of the original thread.
by chuckb on Dec 3, 2008 6:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If I were running VEB I’d be happy to see this amount of off-season traffic, and I don’t think the landscape is threatened by the occasional hijack. Conversation happens! If the regulars bar & grill it a bit when there’s less to discuss, be glad you’ve got regulars IMHO.
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 7:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I too am dumbfounded by not offering
Looper arbitration. Someone is going to sign him for more than a year. The only thing I can think of as a reason is that they know (without collusion, of course) that no one will offer him 6+mil a year and that he might then take arbitration and get more. Anyone else get the impression that all MLB teams have been warned not to sign middle of the road free agents because there is going to be a “market correction” this offseason? I don’t have the statistics, but it looked as if very few FA’s were offered arbitration.
by vinniefromjersey on Dec 2, 2008 11:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
But
wouldn’t that be some form of collusion?
by saladdays on Dec 2, 2008 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not some form: that'd be collusion
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 2, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My point being
that how would all of this be kept under wraps?
by saladdays on Dec 2, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It has to be a pre-cursor to a bigger deal
It just has to. There’s no way anyone would be thinking that this is a set rotation, and they didn’t want to risk blocking some future plan for Looper. They do have a bunch of money to spend still…
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 2, 2008 12:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Reasons for no arb
This reason might be a bit far-fetched. What if the Cards actually respect the FAs, especially Loop and Springer, and declined to offer arb so that they can be more marketable, i.e. get them better deals? So the Cards wanted Springer to get a good last contract? Maybe I think too highly of the Cards managment, but I can’t come up with examples where the Cards purposely screwed any veteran players (minor leaguers excepted).
Also, I forget about BOB"s track record in FA situations. How were Matty Mo and Mattheny treated when they left? Did we get picks from their departure?
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Dec 2, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Got picks from both
In 2005, Tyler Herron was drafted with a Supplemental pick from Mike Matheny.
In 2006, Chris Perez was drafted with a Supplemental pick from Matt Morris.
So, it appears they were both Type B’s.
I found these using a spreadsheet from MLBTradeRumors that had tracked all of Walt Jocketty’s trades and draft picks. The link below is to the Excel file.
by djsmokyc on Dec 2, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Perez was most definitely
a 1st round supplemental pick which means that Morris was a Type A free agent.
by chuckb on Dec 2, 2008 8:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He was a type A but that wouldn't prove it
Type B free agents earn 1st round supplemental picks too. But we also picked Brad Furnish with the 2nd rounder we got for Morris from the Giants. Matheny was also a Type A and we took Josh Wilson with the 2nd rounder we also got from the Giants. Neither look like major leaguers.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 2, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not surprising that those picks
aren’t looking like big leaguers. I have been doing some analysis of compensation picks, including first round, sandwich round, and second round picks.
In the last 20 years, the Cardinals have taken a total of 31 of those picks. Five of them were first rounders and the best player of that group was probably Allen Watson. Thirteen of the picks were sandwich picks, with the best one so far having been Brian Jordan, followed by Chris Duncan. Chris Perez, Colby Rasmus, Clayton Mortensen, and Lance Lynn were all sandwich picks, so their is still hope for the sandwich guys. So far, none of the 2nd round guys has made the majors, but a few like Furnish, Wilson and Hamilton are still in the system. David Kopp is probably the best prospect of the group.
In summary, three of the 31 have had more than a cup of coffee, one (Jordan) has been a pretty darn good player, one may yet be (Duncan) and at least two look like very good prospects (Rasmus and Perez).
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
by giveml on Dec 2, 2008 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wish I had some time to put $$$ to compensation and sandwich picks
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 2, 2008 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I know someone has put a dollar value on those picks`
But for a better reference point, Camden Depot did a nice little comparison. Even though it kinda looks off now that Dunn wasn’t even offered arby.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 2, 2008 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Annnnd
BPro did a dollar value analysis, though it’s behind the pay wall. Long story short, even in 2005 MLB dollars:
Still, we figure that a team losing a Type A free agent is compensated with about $12 million in draft picks…it’s well worth it to offer arbitration to your veterans if there’s any material chance that they’ll sign somewhere else.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 2, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is key.
Victor Wang incorporates these values into his nice articles over at THT. We all should be doing it consistently.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 3, 2008 10:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That wouldn't be a very good way of running
a front office. Worrying about hurting leaving players feelings by doing what is best for your organization will end up costing you in the long run.
by Hardcore Legend on Dec 2, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not with Looper
You could make that argument with Springer, as he is a type A and would cost another team picks, but not with Looper. He is a ype B free agent and wouldn’t cost the signing team anything. Not offering arbitration to Looper just doesn’t make sense. He could easily have been traded if the Cards couldn’t use him and they probably could have gotten something of value for him as well if he was only signed to a one year contract. I am completely baffled by this decision…
by eglasier on Dec 2, 2008 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
points well taken
I agree with you’all. Since my far-fetched idea was completely shot down, I am just as baffled as everyone else. Especially seeing that Perez was gotten from Matty Mo’s exit.
djsmokyc – BTW, thanks for the link to the spreadsheet. It was interesting to look at.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
by totalloser on Dec 2, 2008 7:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was about to say that
Joker makes a good point, they have some loose change in the pocket and the rotation is anything but set in stone at this point. I think it’s a bit of a gamble, though…
"Wherever you go, there you are"
by brik on Dec 2, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just as perplexed they didn't offer arb to Springer
I’ve read reports that he’s being looked at by a few teams and with his Type A status, I don’t see the downside.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 2, 2008 12:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Problem with Springer in my mind was Two Fold
1) I highly doubt anyone would give up their first round pick to sign Springer for one year. So Springer would have a high chance of accepting it.
or
2) The only team that would sign him is a team that already signed a Type A free agent and already lost their pick. In that situation we wouldn’t even get their first round pick just a supplemental.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 2, 2008 2:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
3) 15 teams could sign him
without giving up a first round pick… If a team with a protected pick signs him, we’d get their second-round pick instead.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 2, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't that better than nothing?
And if he accepts, it’s not exactly the end of the world to retain our best relief pitcher on a one year contract.
Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.
And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!
by Tackle Box on Dec 2, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh, i agree
I was just pointing out that only half the teams would have a strong disincentive to signing Springer if we offered arbitration.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 2, 2008 4:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am not sure I would want to give up a 2nd Rounder for Springer
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 2, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The point is that, yes,
if there were anything more than a ZERO percent chance springer would decline arbitration, there might be a reason to offer it. Springer has said it’s st. louis or nowhere, and no team would give up its first or second pick for one year of a 39 year old who throws 30-40 innings/year. In arbitration, Springer could have commanded a number that would cripple our attempts at a cheap bullpen solution.
Meanwhile, Looper would not have costed another team anything, so the incentive to sign him would not be lost, and the number he would have likely gotten in arbitration is not one that would have destroyed our offseason. We could use another starter, and Duncan has meshed well with Looper.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 2, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I thinked this was hashed over pretty well...
in yesterday’s thread.
My reasoning is I think there’s ZERO chance Springer turns down arbitration, and in arbitration he gets $.5 – $1.5 million more than what it would take to sign him on a negotiated one year deal. I don’t see it as low risk…but rather no upside.
by cardzfanbub on Dec 3, 2008 10:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Pitching Surplus
Even if Looper had accepted arbitration, just keep him until spring training, establish that the rotation in healthy (Carp!), then trade him to a needy team. Just because he accepts arbitration doesn’t mean that the Cardinals have to be the ones paying him.
Looper was only projected to be a Type B, so offering him arbitration doesn’t hurt his FA value if he declines.
I understand about hurting the FA value of Springer, where a team would not sign him because he’s not worth the first round pick. My guess is that the front office thinks they can resign him cheaper than his arbitration value if they don’t sign a big-name closer and need another bullpen arm.
by djsmokyc on Dec 2, 2008 12:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The Cardinals Must Not Value a Supplemental at all
They must not be interested in giving a extra million dollar bonus to a supplemental first rounder…. thats the only thing I can think of.
www.salukihoops.com
by salukihoops on Dec 2, 2008 12:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
you're right...
that seems to be the only thing that I can think of as well….just doesn’t make sense otherwise
by eglasier on Dec 2, 2008 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe lunhow
has looked through the possible draftees and already has his sights set on certain people. maybe none of those people would be around the supplemental part of the draft. i’m graspin at straws here but maybe. its a scary thought that they wouldn’t want anybody in the supp round though.
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
by FutureMan on Dec 2, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure is hard to say with a lot of certainty...
where guys are going to fall in the draft next JUNE. Guys who are barely a blip on the radar now could be supplemental picks next summer.
by cardzfanbub on Dec 3, 2008 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If they don't
then they’re not very bright. The value of a sandwich pick is about $3.5 M. The Cards should know this and should care. That can’t be the reason they declined to offer Springer.
by chuckb on Dec 2, 2008 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They
knew he’d accept and they don’t want him for next season.
by spants on Dec 2, 2008 11:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
then why don't they trade him
for something of value?
by chuckb on Dec 3, 2008 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll add
that this is a business and it’s nice that the organization seems to want to be nice and all, considering Springer’s familial situation, but if he’s going to continue to be in this game and earn big dollars doing it, he should be treated as we would any other player. He’s a good player in relatively high demand and should be worth something. If the Cards didn’t want to do that to him b/c of his family, they need to grow up.
by chuckb on Dec 3, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps
they DON’T know the value of a sandwich pick. You are correct that they should. I’m not justifying their decision. I’m saying that is why they didn’t offer arbitration to Springer. It was a stupid move, but stupid things happen in business everyday.
by spants on Dec 4, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My interpretation
I think not offering Looper means they don’t discount the possibility that he’d take it. It also means that either they want to spend less than the 6 mill or so he’d command in arb, or they want to spend more and swing for the fences. I’d lay about 10/1 odds on it being the former. That’s just what the Cards do, at least as far as starting pitching goes. I suspect they’ll look for Lohse type deals (of last year!) to fall through the cracks, or cheaper. That’s what they did when the overall economic landscape was better. I think they’ll have a slightly bigger pool to choose from now that the conditions are so unsettling.
They still may make some big investments elsewhere, likely either MI or bullpen. We’ll find out fairly soon either way. I was surprised they didn’t offer Looper too, but thats the only rationale I can come up with.
by Merry CRasmus on Dec 2, 2008 2:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
With this economy, we (i.e., us fans who observe baseball from the outside) ought to be sure we’re not interpreting things while wearing our pre-recession glasses. I think we’ll see a lot of surprising moves throughout baseball this offseason.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 2, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
right
does no one realize that the economy has fallen into deep do do.
by ridgesee on Dec 2, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Question is that how much is Attendance going to be affected
What Team/Cities will be hit the hardest? Which will be the most affected Attendance, Apparel Sales, TV/Radio Deals…? What teams rely heaviest on a single form of revenue?
Here is an older link from earlier in the year to give you some ideas of the Teams Worth
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 2, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Concur
The ONLY reason not to offer someone arbitration is the fear that they will accept when you don’t want them to.
The Cards might have looked at the FA market, seen a lot of guys like Looper, and figured that his market would not be so rosy. Then they had to think that Looper saw that too, and would figure that another year building his value with the team would be a better bet than casting about as maybe the 18th best SP available this winter. (just pulled that rank out of the air, don’t go making lists on me…)
Think about it tihs way – if Looper were a FA from another team, would you want him for one year at $7M? I think if the team did that there would be a lot of complaining around here about those funds being better spent in other areas. Just a guess.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Dec 2, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They're betting...
that the contracts that players like Looper, and all free agents (maybe save the Sebathia’s, Texeira’s and Ramirez’s of the world) receive will be way below market value from last year’s free agent market. And they’re probably right. I think arbitration is a big question mark this year. Are the arbitrators going to take prevailing economic problems into account? Are they only going to rely on past deals and trends?
The Birds (and the Yankees and others) are betting that by the end of the offseason they can sign a comparable player to those they’ve declined (if not the very same player) for less than the salary an arbitrator would have agreed on. If and when this does turn out to be a frugal offseason, player demands will be less in March than they would be during the arbitration process. In this cynical, but realistic view of the economic situation teams face, I think the move makes sense. And I think there could be some very interesting players (much more so than Lohse was last year, and he turned out alright) available unusually late in the offseason- and for cheap. At least I hope so, for our sake and for Mo’s.
by BustaCard on Dec 2, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I want to concur
here but can’t help thinking that if they turned down Looper for 1 year and 6 million (relatively low risk, although, maybe his health points to something here) then why did they just go and sign Lohse to so many years and dollars. This is definitely the first move by Mo that I flat out hate. Can’t seem to get my head around it.
by eglasier on Dec 2, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Lohse was signed in a slightly different economic landscape.
He was signed on 9/29. That’s the same day that congress said “no” to the first bailout bill (700 Billion). article. The Dow dropped about one hundred points on the billion.
Perhaps we shouldn’t look to the Lohse signing for comparisons to this decision.
Baseball Fever.... Catch it!
by skcabrozar on Dec 2, 2008 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Things have gotten a little more serious since then. And all the gov’t and CEO blowhards who thought this crisis could be solved by simply inserting liquidity ($) into the markets have been proven sorely wrong. We’re at the beginning of a long, and painful restructuring of the banking system which will entail capital devaluation and labor restructuring in the rest of the economy (including baseball). I hope the MLPA has their fightin’ shoes on.
by BustaCard on Dec 2, 2008 7:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Union
I hope they don’t have their fighting shoes on, but I agree it is almost certainly going to come to a boil over the next couple years. You’d like to think that the players will understand they’re going to end up taking a bite out of the you-know-what sandwich like everyone else, but that is doubtful. On the other side of the coin, I am sure there will be cases where ownership overreaches and gives the union plenty to gripe about.
by Merry CRasmus on Dec 2, 2008 7:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No one thought simply de-thawing available liquidity would solve *everything*
They thought it would help (which it does/has in the short term), nothing would really solve everything. That said to get this back to baseball: I severely, severely doubt that baseball owners, most of whom are owners in fact because they have made smart business decisions along the way, had the slightest belief that it would be solved that easily. In fact I would venture to say those types of people with connections to the business world kne/ow with far more certainty that this was going to happen in the first place—-and especially once it did, I’m sure they were doing they’re homework on how it would affect business. Have to give them that credit (no pun intended!).
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 2, 2008 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
First off...
the majority of bball owners aren’t super rich because they worked harder or were smarter, but because they have the right pedigree/inheritance and are willing to put every other principal second to making a profit. Second, many economists saw this thing coming for the last few years. Most ‘owners’, and most of the business establishment along with them, were sure that the invisible hand of the market would correct itself (hell, they’re still teaching that crap in my wife’s econ class) so not to worry. And the one’s that suspected the bottom would fall out eventually were too busy trying to capitalize on that last hedge fund, make that last subprime loan, ship that last shipment, get that last super bonus, than plan for the future. This is capitalism baby, now is everything and next quarter is the only thing.
by BustaCard on Dec 3, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the majority of bball owners aren’t super rich because they worked harder or were smarter, but because they have the right pedigree/inheritance and are willing to put every other principal second to making a profit
This is pure, negative conjecture.
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So...
if it is conjecture (and it is, admittedly- but not untrue) then would you say that many owners of mlb teams have made their fortune from scratch? Because they’re smarter? Because they care about people and have been karmicly rewarded? They’re called the privileged for a reason.
As for the negative, damn right. Not much to be too happy about when it comes to the super rich, at least from where I’m sitting.
by BustaCard on Dec 3, 2008 11:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t presume to know anything about their finances or principles. I think one will fare better in life by assuming they can reach their goals, rather than complaining about those that – for whatever reason – apparently did.
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but more people should be able to meet those goals
it doesn’t have to be a small percentage.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Huge difference between “would be nice if I had” and “took the steps to have.” One still has to pays their nickel and takes their chances, otherwise the outcome will be predictable!
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes
but still, I’d have to say most rich people had some help, especially from today’s perspective
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There's a difference between starting wealthy and ending super rich
You think it’s pure luck and happenstance that the Cardinals have tripled in value since DeWitt’s ownership group took over?
It’s not a coincidence that baseball franchise values have grown at ~10% per year for a long running time. They might have found themselves in lucky situations to begin with, but these are (largely) smart people.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 3, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"they’re still teaching that crap in my wife’s econ class"
Well, I should hope so… What do you suppose is happening, now, if it isn’t a market correction?
As far as your class warfare conjecture, it’s trivial to find the names of the people who own MLB franchises. If you really want to know how they earned their fortunes, you can probably find out just by googling their names. Seems like a better way to go than just spouting unfounded hatefulness.
Anyway, most of the people who “saw it coming” were busy shorting investment bank stock, not making subprime loans. Michael Lewis (of Moneyball fame) had an excellent article about this over at the NY times web page a week or so ago.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 3, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the market will correct itself
whether you, or society at large, is willing to wait for that to happen may be another thing entirely. But there is a business cycle and we’re on the bad end of it right now, no doubt about it, but it won’t last forever.
by chuckb on Dec 3, 2008 6:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
While the market has dropped even more since then, everyone who had any sort of business knowledge knew of the coming collapse. That’s why the first bailout bill was presented to congress prior to the Lohse signing. Trust me, the baseball execs knew what was going to happen to the economy on 9/29. There is no reason the Lohse signing and the non-Looper offer should be viewed from different perspectives because the economy has worsened in the past 2 months.
Two goldfish are in a tank. One of them turns to the other and says, "You man the guns, I'll drive!"
by thegodfather on Dec 2, 2008 10:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why do we keep comparing Lohse and Looper like they are the same pitcher?
Lohse has no significant injury history, Looper does.
Lohse is much younger than Looper is and has been a starter his whole career.
Lohse had a better year last season and is, possibly, entering his prime seasons as a pitcher.
They aren’t the same pitcher, even though they have similar numbers the last two years.
I’m not happy about the Lohse signing either, but it really has nothing to do with not offering Looper arbitration. If my math is correct, Lohse will make in 2009 what Looper made in 2008, and Looper would get a raise in arbitration. Why would the club risk that if they think they can get a comparable pitcher for less?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 3, 2008 9:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's not what I'm saying at all
I wasn’t comparing the two, just the salaries as they relate to the economy. The above discussion implied that Lohse wouldn’t have gotten as much money if he signed today versus when he did sign which simply isn’t true. I’m not sure what you think I was saying, or how it came across that way…
On that note, I don’t see Loop getting much of a raise when he made $5.5M last year. What significant injury history? He’s made at least 60 appearances or 30 starts every season (not counting his debut in ‘98). I’d see him accepting arb as getting a relatively cheap, reliable 4th starter on a 1 year deal. Who else are we going to get for that much money on a short deal?
And the Lohse signing…4 years with a no trade clause…not so great, obviously.
Two goldfish are in a tank. One of them turns to the other and says, "You man the guns, I'll drive!"
by thegodfather on Dec 3, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I blame Lohse for the general economic crisis.
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 11:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's appearing before a Senate subcomittee next week
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Dec 3, 2008 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll let VEB claim the scoop on this one. This time.
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 11:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
heh
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
at least
we can be certain they aren’t going to be signing any type a free agents. otherwise you would imagine they would try to protect themselves with a supp pick.
then again our FO has done stranger things…
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
by FutureMan on Dec 2, 2008 2:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I see it as
cutting some ties with the past, and perhaps not being able to decide who to offer arbitration to (mainly Looper or Springer, they’ve both been very helpful and good clubhouse types) was a factor, and not wanting to play favorites. that’s the only things I could think of.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 2, 2008 3:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
BABIP odds and ends
THT did a very good study on hitter’s BABIP. For those too lazy to read the bad news: Lopez, Miles and Molina exceeded their xBABIP by .030+ points which is large. The good news: so did Theriot and Soto.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 2, 2008 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yeah
I read that over in azru’s rec’d fanpost
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 2, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Everybody wanted to give the young guys a chance......
In the pen. For that happen, Springer has to be let go. No way around it.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 2, 2008 4:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think another interesting non-arb guy is
If we could sign him to a 2 year deal to play LF and hit in the 2 hole ahead of Albert I think it makes trading Ankiel (preferably) or Ludwick even more palatable. Trading Ludwick would give us 3 LH outfielders and probably force Colby lower in the order, but it would be nice to see Abreu in front of Albert.
by rlgosnell on Dec 2, 2008 4:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
He is the worst defensive OFer in baseball
Soooooooo bad. Needs to DH
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 2, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no no no no no
not only is he a horrible defender, he is in decline as a hitter
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 2, 2008 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
unless he can play middle infield
I don’t think this is one the radar.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 3, 2008 9:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
we could probably move him to second base...
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 3, 2008 1:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And have Skippy at short
MI problems solved
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Dec 3, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What about,
if Looper goes through this offseason like Lohse did last offseason. Innings eater, mediocre ERA, few teams interested, and then MO signs him to a 4 million dollar deal instead of the 8 he would get in arb?
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 2, 2008 4:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
that's what I was thinking
I’m guessing no one values him as much as the Cardinals.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 2, 2008 8:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
My 1/2 cent worth,
I like what the FO is doing with these guys. I’m not sure it’s worth the risk of them accepting arbitration.
Now, I’m not saying they aren’t worth the raises, but I don’t think they are worth it to this team. Use that 2-3 million helping upgrade the MI.
Try to re-sign them at what we paid them this year with some incentives for a better job. If they take it, GREAT. They both would like to stay in St. Louis, so let’s see how much. If someone else pays them more, good for Loop and Russ.
by chicagocardfan on Dec 2, 2008 6:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Russ interview from this morning
the door ain’t closed. as a fan who’d like to see him back i glad to hear that.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Dec 2, 2008 9:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nice interview
Always good to hear (vs read sanitized quotes) the person. Springer expected and likes the move. He knows the business side of baseball well. Family is in Monroe LA for the last year so he isn’t “tied” to STL like he was in 2007 or in the future.
by ubeddie on Dec 2, 2008 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Looks like the Braves are trading Lillibridge to ChiSox
So unless Atlanta is intending to sign Furcal I don’t there is any way they will deal Escobar now…better get to work Mo.
by nmstar on Dec 2, 2008 10:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wish we were making that trade
Get a #3 and a LOOGY
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 2, 2008 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Do they think that Lillibridge is going to start for them next year?
Otherwise I don’t understand the deal at all, I think the Braves made a steal.
You would think that somebody would have had a better offer for those two players than that one, and that the Cardinals should have been in on Javy from the beginning.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 3, 2008 9:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Burnett or Lowe?
I’d have to pick Lowe
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 2, 2008 10:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Lowe Wants Five (5!) Years!
he seemingly wants this contract to be his golden parachute towards retirement.
hecanthithecanthithecanthithecanthit
by Alxfritz on Dec 2, 2008 10:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One man's golden parachute
is another team’s golden shower.
by spants on Dec 2, 2008 11:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
5!=120
thats alooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong time definitely not worth it
by bearcatcardfan on Dec 2, 2008 11:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wanting and getting are two different things
Odds are you’d have to guarantee a 4th year and like a vesting 5th year option. Given that Lowe was a 5 win pitcher last year and probably a 4 win pitcher next year, 15 mil a year AAV probably wouldn’t be that bad for 4 years.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
by joker24 on Dec 2, 2008 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it's that out of line either joker
But I think that’s more than the Cardinals can afford to pay at the present time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 3, 2008 9:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wow
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 12:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Burnett
I’ve been saying that since he signed in Toronto. I won’t be able to advocate him much longer. That day will make me sad.
by azruavatar on Dec 2, 2008 11:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
unless, of course, the Cardinals actually sign him
that might be the way to read the Looper non-arb offer, I guess.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 2, 2008 11:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
how many years does he want?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 12:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
5, IIRC
which is 2 years more than I’d like to give him.
by azruavatar on Dec 3, 2008 8:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so either one of those guys
would probably be a bad idea
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Burnett is a win now move
The marginal returns (i.e. making the playoffs) might be worth it. I’d have to sit down and look at how many wins are on the Cardinals roster and how many more they’d need for the wild card.
by azruavatar on Dec 3, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I got a feeling it's about 86 if everyone stays healthy.
Furcal
by JI on Dec 3, 2008 1:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not a point worth arguing, really
since it’s all semantics, but imho the archetype of a “win-now” move is more along the lines of trading prospects for a Holliday or Roberts type.
Signing a big-name FA pitcher is something different. I don’t know what I’d call it, really, but signing a 32yo big name FA pitcher should fill a rotation spot for 3-4 years, maybe 5. Of course he could become an albatross, if he gets hurt, but it’s more of an investment than a splurge, and if he doesn’t get hurt, he potentially becomes a valuable trade commodity.
OTOH I’m not convinced he’s a better option than Lowe. As Neyer said in his chat yesterday, Burnett’s career-high ERA+ is 122, and that was 6 years ago, while Lowe’s career average ERA+ is 122.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 3, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Boooo ERA+
The reason I’d classify it as a win now move is that in 2-3 years you’d project significant decline so the 5 year contract would be to obtain maximum value on the front end. This is especially true for aging pitchers as you know. Your characterization of a trade is certainly something I’d consider a win now move as well. Anything that has ample short term gain with a likelihood of longterm loss is a win-now, no?
re: Lowe
Marcel projects a .13 FIP difference between the two next season. That’s largely negligible once you correct for parks they’ve been playing in the last few years. Whether Burnett will match Lowe’s IP, I dunno. I’ve stopped trying to play doctor.
by azruavatar on Dec 3, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
tRA, tRA+, tRA* for 2006, 2007, 2008
Burnett: 4.00/122/4.28, 4.26/115/4.06, 3.69/124/4.05
Lowe: 4.02/121/4.07 , 4.08/118/3.94, 3.24/132/3.66
Over the last seven seasons Lowe has also averaged 207 IP to Burnett’s 153.
If we’re going to take a 5YR contract it looks like I’d definitely prefer Lowe.
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That doesn't adjust for league.
Burnett was pitching in the AL East while Lowe was battling the Giants and Padres. The difference between those two is marginal, imo.
Derek Lowe is also 4 years older than Burnett and more likely to decline. Does that balance out the difference between Burnetts increased likelihood to get hurt — I dunno. These two are likely very close in value (within 5 runs) on a yearly basis.
by azruavatar on Dec 3, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think the big difference is, as you consider, durability. Age is definitely a wildcard, but I’ll personally gamble on it with a still positive-trending dude that over another with a known injury history. I do take some faith in Lowe’s NL-adjusted tRA+ and tRA* numbers too. BP seems to like Burnett better – perhaps more than you do. Damned proprietary stats.
I hate 5YR contracts in general, though, so I probably wouldn’t be excited about fair market value for either of them! :)
by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, you would have to think that Duncan would be salivating over coaching Lowe
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 3, 2008 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Age...
But I too prefer Lowe over the next year or two.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 3, 2008 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i like him too AZ
A LOT
but man i just don’t trust his health. the dude’s stuff is filthy. flat out filthy. the 1hitter he threw against the Yanks up in Toronto was simply amazing to watch. i’d be tickled pink if he ended up with the Cards, but i just don’t see them getting into a bidding war for a guy who spurned their advances just 3 short seasons ago.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Dec 3, 2008 3:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

by 


















