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Around SBN: 2012 Africa Cup Of Nations Final

Best Offensive Players in 2008

Well, I just finished running the numbers with my own little offensive performance formula. I'm calling it Offensive Ability Rating, or OAR for short. The numbers read sort of like a quartback rating I guess, and I'm going to be coy and not release the formula... let's just say it takes into account every traditional offensive statistic, with the addition of BABIP and P/PA. It weights on base factors pretty highly, but doesn't totally discount raw base production. So here's our top performers (min 300 PAs):

El numero uno: Albert Pujols with an OAR of 183.6

2. Adam Dunn - 172.5

3. Milton Bradley - 170.8

4. J.D. Drew - 168.2

5. Chipper Jones - 167.5

6. Jason Giambi - 166.7

7. David Wright - 164.1

8. Carlos Pena - 162.7

9. Jack Cust - 158.9

10. Hanley Ramirez - 157.9

11. Chris Iannetta - 157.4

12. Lance Berkman - 156

13. Mark Texeira - 155.2

14. Manny Ramirez - 155

15. Grady Sizemore - 153

16. Pat Burrell - 152

17. Shin-Soo Choo - 147.7

18. Elijah Dukes - 147.5

19. Matt Holliday - 146.6

20. B.J. Upton - 146.5

21. Nick Markakis - 145

22. Prince Fielder - 144.3

22. Jayson Werth - 144.3

23. Alex Rodriguez - 144.2

24. Carlos Beltran - 144.1

25. Jason Bay - 143.8

I should mention that the stat punishes for ground into double plays and striking out.... and also that it's not park or league adjusted at this time.

Next, one of the core stats to OAR is called ELF, or eye-luck factor.

Adam Dunn actually beats out Albert Pujols in this area... but what's more interesting is how atrocious Miguel Tejada is in this dept.

We're talking Adam Dunn has an ELF of 1.066 and Tejada is at .157. How ridiculous is that? (Adam Dunn is nearly 7 times better there). Just an unbelievably horrid performance by Tejada this year... the only hitter with a worse OAR is Yuniesky Betancourt, the lowest rating in my study (68.9 to 65.8).

Another thing I found out (well, unless this is a bunch of hullabaloo) is that Yadier Molina was actually not quite as a good a hitter as Cesar Izturis, and that Craig Counsell was extremely underrated. If anyone can back this stuff up, I'd be ecstatic. I'm no statitician, more of an armchair philosopher/artist/music afficionado.

Our top ten most efficient ball mashers/base producers without walking of 2008 are:

(what I call BEF, or base efficiency rating, or maybe oooo aaah factor)

1. Adam Dunn - 2.18

2. Ryan Howard - 2.16

3. Marcus Thames - 2.108

4. Mike Jacobs - 2.085

5. Mike Cameron - 2.074

6. Grady Sizemore - 2.065

6. Jim Thome - 2.065

7. Jack Cust - 2.063

8. Jason Giambi - 2.044

9. Jim Edmonds - 2.038

10. Pat Burrell - 2.03

Well, I know this is sort of primitive (no park adj. etc) but I guess it's another novel angle for statistical analysis. If anything, maybe it further illustrates that it's easier to hit in the NL, or maybe no one noticed how horrible Miguel Tejada was this year... fwiw, the top 4 Cardinals in OAR are Pujols, Ludwick, Glaus, then Ankiel. Hopefully also it illustrates that it was pretty ridiculous that Pedroia won AL MVP.

 

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This is pretty cool

Although I find it hard to believe that Elijah Dukes was better than Matt Holiday.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 17, 2008 2:12 AM EST reply actions  

yeah

that one is going to be tough to explain. back to the drawing board maybe, I’ll look into it more tonight

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 17, 2008 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

so yeah

86.8 is really his OAR. too many calculations leads to mistakes. I knew I should of learned how to use the formulas!

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 17, 2008 9:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I find it hard to believe that

That Ianetta, Drew, Giambi, and Cust rank ahead of Berkman and that Nick Markakis is that far down the list considering where other players of his skill set rank above him…

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Dec 17, 2008 12:07 PM EST reply actions  

yeah

I think I will re-check my numbers for Berkman, it does strike me as odd.

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 17, 2008 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

what's funny about Berkman

is he stole 18 bases last year.

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 17, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm going to check all the numbers

and get back with you guys. ugh, what a project. if you ever do anything like this, double check your numbers first. sorry for making you the guinea pigs ;)

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 17, 2008 9:31 PM EST reply actions  

no problems

thank goodness for the edit feature huh? Now get to it, I wanna see how good your new formula works before the weekend!

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 17, 2008 9:35 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah

I wish I could just delete this thing… can this be removed, and I’ll repost this later?

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 17, 2008 9:43 PM EST up reply actions  

the last section

the oooo aaaah factor is accurate… it is simply TB + SB – CS divided by Hits

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 17, 2008 9:45 PM EST up reply actions  

you can delete it, or edit it

just don’t do away with it all together …it is interesting

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 17, 2008 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

cool

I can’t delete it… and I’ll be posting a more in depth feature at my new blog

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 17, 2008 10:40 PM EST up reply actions  

of course now I have to keep an eye on that one

I suppose if I have to keep trying new beers…I can’t really think of a reason to end that sentence negatively. Is there going to be a new beer every week?

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 18, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions  

that will be my goal

it is a good goal, I think. I’ll probably be charging out of the gates though, maybe 2 a week to start out.

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 18, 2008 6:16 PM EST up reply actions  

actually, don't delete the thread I guess

here’s sample from the blog, 4B:

Another baseball season went by, even faster than usual this time. It seems like not so long ago that I was so happy that spring training had begun, and to see who would win out positions on the competitive St. Louis Cardinals spring training camp. The team had a lot of question marks at the beginning of the season, so spring training was almost as exciting as the rest of the season; actually, it was more interesting than the end of the Cardinals’ season. The team had worked itself up into a foaming rabid beast flying out of the gates, but unfortunately, the first game of the season was rained out despite a great opening performance from the pitching and an Albert Pujols home run, and a lethargic looking Rockies still suffering from World Series hangover.

That rainout sort of predicted the way the season would go, close but no cigar. The Cardinals pretty much outperformed most people’s predictions, both sportswriter and hyper-informed fan, but not mine. I picked the team to win about 90 games, which they came very near to doing. The team finished half a game out of third place, due to a bizarre late season surge by the Houston Astros (should we be surprised by this any longer? It seems to be their MO in recent history). The half game lead from the Astros was caused by the Big Hurricane of ’08, which threatened Houston and flooded the area with surging waters and fearsome winds. They would have had to play the Cubs if necessary, so I think we can agree the Cardinals tied for 3rd place. Not to mention the ridiculousness of playing Adam Kennedy in the outfield more than a couple of games… avoiding that alone would have remedied the problem.

One of the real problems with the Cardinals remained, alongside previous years, the injury problem. Who knows why this is, but maybe it has something to do with stubborness. Cardinals fans watched as key players such as Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter sat by on the sidelines, subdued by injury problems that may have been avoided, if they weren’t the team’s main go to guys for winning games. Both of these guys could be the ace of some team’s pitching staffs. Surely we couldn’t have expected much from Chris Carpenter, coming back from a long term surgery recovery… but maybe, just maybe, he should have waited a little longer for that return. I’m just glad that he didn’t push it any more than he did. And the freak injury of Adam Wainwright tearing his tendon in his middle finger is hard to explain. But maybe it has something to do with a situation like the one surrounding Rick Ankiel.

As I mentioned before, I had high expectations for the 2008 season, since the Cardinals had some decent starting pitching anchored by the last minute addition of one Kyle Lohse. And of course someone named Pujols. But I was banking on a dark horse: a breakout season by Rick Ankiel. The ex-pitcher converted to power hitting rocket-armed outfielder emerged as a legitimate offensive threat in late 2007, but was sidelined by an irresponsible news story thrown out there by ESPN for some ratings I suppose (the non-scandal was blown far out of proportion by the media and some baseball fans; during the time Ankiel used small amounts of human growth hormone, it was not banned from major league baseball, and it has not yet been proven that it actually helps with hitting). Instead, we were pleasantly surprised by a scorching season from out of nowhere by Ryan Ludwick, but back to those injuries….

Ankiel basically played with a sports hernia for a few weeks, maybe around a month. He was given a few more off-days to rest, and didn’t play for a while, but was never designated for the disabled list. A very bad move really, since the Cardinals suffer from the strange problem of having too many good outfielders. Actually, it’s a nice problem to have; but alas, the Cardinals didn’t use it to their advantage. And if it was Rick Ankiel saying he could play when he was badly injured, the team needs to learn something about the tough-guy attitude. It’s happened too much to this team. This was one of the many things I am at a loss to explain about the ’08 Cardinals season, but nothing was as bad as the fall of Jason Isringhausen.

I really don’t know what happened to the guy, except that he’s had so many injuries and is getting too old and worn out to compete at the major league level anymore. The problem being is that he is such a competitor he doesn’t know when to stop, and the team were too stubborn to take him out of his traditional role (which he is handsomely paid for). Had the organization acted faster in realizing that Isringhausen, or Izzy for short, was costing them wins the team would have been the story of the year… but cost them he did; I think it’s safe to say that his performance cost them playoff berth. And he had the tantrums and damaged finger to show it, after punching a tv screen I believe. There’s just no excuse for this, other than avoidable drama that can somehow happen to anyone, human error I guess…

But onto the more positive aspects of the 2008 season: Albert Pujols’ absolute domination of The Art of Hitting. Pujols is by far the most complete hitter in the major leagues, and 2008 was possibly his greatest season, pretty much guaranteeing him a spot in the Hall of Fame, arguably even before he has hit his peak. Pujols, like much of the team, was injured during the season (he pulled his calf muscle) and played through pain in his elbow (at least in part due to ligaments with small tears in them) as he has done since 2003. No hitter can match the combination of plate discipline (the guy hardly ever strikes out), power (he’s hit well over 30 home runs every year in his short career), and constistency that Pujols exemplifies. And let it not be an afterthought that Albert Pujols is one of the best defenders in the major leagues, playing arguably better defense at first base than anyone in the game. Very few players have deserved the MVP Award as much as Pujols deserved his in ‘08. I wonder how much better a season he would have had if he wasn’t hurt for a few weeks? Unbelievable. And oh yeah, he even played a little second base.

Ryan Ludwick’s breakthrough season was a close second in good stories from the Cardinal’s 2008. Ludwick’s Slugging Percentage was second to only MVP Albert Pujols’, both leading the majors. He hit just as many home runs, and while he didn’t hit for quite the batting average as Albert, he absolutely tore the cover off the ball, blasting line drive after line drive after homerun all season long. He also played a decent outfield and even filled in in CF. To wrap things up, Troy Glaus impressed over at third base, aptly replacing Scott Rolen at the hot corner while outhitting the guy by quite a fair margin. Had Ankiel stayed healthy (as well as Glaus towards the end of the season), the Cardinals would have had a fearsome foursome for their opponents to contend with all season long. But the (sort of) late decision to start playing Ludwick every day multiplied by Ankiel and to a lesser extent, Pujols, being injured, really made it difficult for the Cardinals to reach their goals. The team could easily have won over 90 games if it weren’t for all the setbacks and slowly-adapting managerial decisions regarding all the aforementioned reasons…

But oh well, it was a helluva season and I loved it. One of the most entertaining season’s in memory, I was happy to follow along with the team, as well as converse with my fellow bloggers over at Viva El Birdos, the best baseball blog on the internet.

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 17, 2008 10:45 PM EST reply actions  

OAR

they are a pretty good band. Crazy Game of Poker is a great song. Shattered isn’t half bad either. they are no DMB, but still a good bad & a great live show. my bro has seen them many times when there where just a bunch a wanna be’s at OSU.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Dec 22, 2008 12:47 AM EST reply actions  

I was wondering if I would have to be the one to make that joke...

now I don’t have to.

And Chitown; This is really cool, I like the idea of well-thought-out homebrew stats. Who knows, maybe this is the first step towards getting the Cards front office to hire you as a consultant. Any idea how well your numbers coalesce with similar attempts like Inaz’s? Maybe somebody out there can tweak it a bit and see how they correlate.
Also, neat blog; I just tried a coffee stout for the first time (got myself a Schlafly’s sampler twelve pack a little while ago) and I was surprised at how much I liked it.

by mattybobo on Dec 22, 2008 10:25 AM EST up reply actions  

cool thanks!

yes, I would really like that idea… I could consult both on stats and on beer! although a cappuccino stout may cost 15 bucks at a game!

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 22, 2008 1:18 PM EST up reply actions  

how 'bout a revolution?

(and he said “right.”)

I also like I Feel Home, amongst others.

by stlfan on Dec 22, 2008 10:30 AM EST up reply actions  

I appreciate the effort.

But really, without releasing your method, this is almost pointless. At least no more helpful than one person’s opinion.

Is this a rate stat or a counting stat?

Using Justin’s RAR, which is park- and league-adjusted linear weights compared to replacement-level, here are the top 25 most productive hitters of 2008, measured in runs above replacement:

Albert Pujols 89
Manny Ramirez 73
Hanley Ramirez 69
Lance Berkman 68
Chipper Jones 66
Mark Teixeira 65
Grady Sizemore 64
David A Wright 62
Alex Rodriguez 60
Nick Markakis 59
Ryan Ludwick 57
Aubrey Huff 56
Kevin E Youkilis 54
Chase Utley 53
Carlos Beltran 53
Matt T Holliday 52
Carlos J Quentin 52
Josh H Hamilton 51
Jose Reyes 51
Jason Bay 51
Milton Bradley 50
Dustin L Pedroia 50
Brian Roberts 50
Miguel Cabrera 49
Brian Giles 49

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 23, 2008 3:32 PM EST reply actions  

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