The Case for Chris, etc.
by DanUpBaby on Dec 15, 2008 6:33 AM EST
282 comments
Chuck mentioned Chris Burke in passing yesterday, which is probably the way Chris Burke—like most of the backup second basemen currently available to the Cardinals—deserves to be mentioned. But I like him as a Miles replacement, in the calm, mostly disinterested way one must effect when talking about utility infielders, for a few reasons.
He can really play second, for one thing. Miles, for all his pennant-winning grit, has always lacked the steady defense typically associated with the utility infielder species; he's fringy at second, and he displays all the range at shortstop of someone who is standing at second base. His career UZR/150 rates at each position—it's amazing how ubiquitous a stat becomes the instant it's easy for bloggers to get their hands on—are -3.5 and -18, respectively.
Burke hasn't played much shortstop, and there's no reason to believe he'd be all that good if he ever did, but in 850 innings at second he's +10. His +/- numbers are less impressive but still positive. So Burke, who was admittedly awful last year—he hit .194/.310/.273 over 165 at-bats with Arizona—would have less ground to make up on what certainly seems, at first glance, to have been a flukily effective season from Miles on offense.
And he really did suck, but at the risk of getting too carried away Burke's got a history of being downright unremarkable with the bat.
| Year | AB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2005 | 318 | .248 | .309 | .368 |
| 2006 | 366 | .276 | .347 | .418 |
| 2007 | 319 | .229 | .304 | .357 |
| 2008 | 165 | .194 | .310 | .273 |
That career progression came after he had a big year in AAA—.315/.385/.507, 37 stolen bases, 16 home runs—and was heralded as the perfect Craig Biggio replacement at second, right up until Biggio went back to second and marooned Burke in the outfield, where his fluky PCL power would hardly have been adequate even if it had really existed.
What's left with Chris Burke is a player who's twice shown flashes of worth that have been taken for something more than that; after 2004 he was a major prospect, and after 2006 it seemed like, having finally spent significant time at second, he was going to turn the corner. Neither follow-up panned out as the storyline dictated.
I don't think Burke was ever the dynamic Knoblauch type he appeared to be before he got reverse-Pipped by Craig Biggio, but I don't think he's a AAAA lifer, either. If the Cardinals replaced Miles with Burke they would be trading one offensive question mark for another, only this one can run the bases and play defense. And would be a little less ridiculous, at least, than Adam Kennedy: outfielder.
Some weekend links of interest on this Monday morning:
- At Future Redbirds roarke has an excellent profile of the forgotten man at third base, Allen Craig. His comparison to Josh Willingham, another displaced, non-star bat, seems pretty apt to me, although coming from shortstop/third base instead of catcher I've always assumed Craig to be more athletic than that.
- Our cross-state rivals won the heated Kyle Farnsworth bidding race by a landslide. Farnsworth has always struck me as one of the few living, breathing examples of a kind of pitcher who's way more common in fiction and sportswriter fantasy than on Major League rosters. He is the straight fastball damn-the-torpedoes guy that everybody on talk radio intermittently accuses their closer of being. He is the million dollar arm with attached ten cent head. He really did give up fifteen home runs in 60 innings last year. I'm not sure how a righty relief pitcher with more games played than innings pitched, with more home runs allowed than saves, wrangled a multi-year deal out of Dayton Moore, but it seems like GMs still see something in Farnsworth that no Cubs fan ever has.
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Give thanks for Dayton Moore
It’s no bad thing for one’s cross-town, or cross-state, rivals to be a cautionary tale.
As regards Miles vs. Burke, I don’t think it’s clear-cut. Burke’s limited experience at SS is worrisome, and he can’t hit. Sometimes, better the devil you know.
by StanTheManFan on Dec 15, 2008 9:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I had such high hopes for Dayton Moore.
Now, he just makes me sad.
She isn't crazy, she's just not impressed.
by jillsinmo on Dec 15, 2008 9:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe Moore worked a deal with the Chiefs to chip in.
I mean, Farnsworth might be a decent player on the defensive side of the football….
by mtalken on Dec 15, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thought the same thing when I saw that post at BTF
As for Chris Burke, he’d fit as a platoon-mate for Kennedy—he’s always had the pronounced vs. lefts split, although last year he stunk against everyone, just slightly less putridly against lefts.
That said, I’ve been a Barden fan since we picked him up and his bat looks pretty similar to Burke’s but is more useful defensively. If Burke’ll agree to an NRI… well, he’s probably better depth than the Hoff.
by liam on Dec 15, 2008 11:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Me too.
I really thought he was going to be the guy that got the Royals back on track. It just seems like that whole organisation drags down everyone associated with it, though.
They do have a little pitching talent finally, so Moore has made some marginal strides there, it seems. Still…
It was half my fault, and half the atmosphere.
by the red baron on Dec 15, 2008 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've tried to ignore this for quite some time.
But since you’re a main poster and I seem to read it all the time….it’s organiZation.
Unless, you’re really in to Krautrock and being that you are THE Red Baron, you might actually be and are making some sort of symbolic homage here…..
Sorry I had to go all Grammar 4th Polizei Panzergrenadier Division on ya……
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you hail from the british isles, it's organisation.
The internet is worldwide, TackleBox! Embrace diversity.
Also, colour.
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking they might say it that way in Canada as well,
but I think we’ve all probably watched enough hockey to know it’s pronounced “Organ-EYE-zation” up there…
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
this is America dammit, don’t bring that English spelling stuff up in here! I thought we left the Brits because we didn’t get along with ’em.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Defence
=Defense too. fun times with colloquial spelling.
by spencegrif on Dec 15, 2008 1:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wow
a krautrock reference! I can’t see that word without mentioning the band Can (or maybe Neu! is more your speed).
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have to be honest
I had no idea what it was and just ran across it when I googled “organisation” to see if it was an acceptable spelling of the word. Wikipedia is an amazing tool.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's kinda what I figured
unless you drastically changed your listening habits
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yet, I don't find it odd at all that you are apparently well versed in Krautrock
The depth and breadth of your musical knowledge never fails to disappoint.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well
thanks, I think
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 16, 2008 12:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not as much a compliment
as it is a recognition and amazement of your passion. Anyone who is passionate about something should be proud of it.
Well….as long as it wont’ find you in prison……….
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 16, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can is choice.
Tago Mago for the Nguyen.
by lunchboxbomb on Dec 15, 2008 7:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Noted.
And ignored.
No offense.
It was half my fault, and half the atmosphere.
by the red baron on Dec 15, 2008 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Non taken.
And you get a rec!
(I’m starting my offseason conditioning program)
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
*none
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I don't know what on Earth he's doing over there...
I guess this was his to-do list:
Trade for a first baseman, when you have Billy Butler and Kila Ka’hihue already…check!
Said first baseman must be utterly one dimensional and must make ridiculous numbers of outs…check!
Even though our team already has a fine center-fielder, go trade for another one and move said center fielder to left, where his bat doesn’t play well…check!
Trade good relief pitchers for these dudes, and then sign a really really really bad one…check!
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 15, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't see the point...
in going after an ut. infielder right now. If Barden is good enough to play SS for the olympic team surely he’s good enough to back up for STL. If not, there’s Ryan and/or Greene. I don’t see why we should hand over $1-3 million to a guy who is at best marginally better than these options.
by cardzfanbub on Dec 15, 2008 9:43 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
i would expect
that pretty much any MLB team would beat up on the olympic team pretty badly, if they ever faced each other.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 15, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not implying that the O team...
is major league caliber…just that Barden played SS well for them on all accounts, and if he can play short at that level he can probably back-up short at the ML level…at least as good as Miles/Burke, at probably no more than 1/3 the cost. As liam sad if Burke will accept a NRI I’m all for it…don’t see the point in paying him/Miles/Giles/whoever over $800K.
by cardzfanbub on Dec 15, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
didn't barden mostly play 2B in beijing?
maybe I was watching all the wrong games.
by Phizzle on Dec 15, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Just trying out my new sig...
Sometimes I wonder,
"Why is that frisbee getting bigger?"
...and then it hits me!!
by cardzfanbub on Dec 16, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Utility Infield
IMO, it’s Barden, Ryan, or bust. There’s no reason to pay a utility infielder who can’t play SS at a favorable level any more than $1M next year, and Miles will make double or triple that next season. Barden isn’t great defensively but does bring a pretty good stick with him, which to me is more important in a utility infielder when you already have two above average defensive players who start in the middle infield. Ryan must show 2007 batting numbers and 2008 maturity if he wants to be the utility guy, but is always a nice backup option if necessary. Either of these guys would make league minimum next season, so that opens up an extra $2-$3M to sign another lefty, add to the budget for a starting pitcher, or allow the team to upgrade the starting second baseman and shuttle Kennedy while eating some salary. Any of those options is better than Aaron Miles at $3M for next season.
I don’t think Greene is ready for the big time despite his Arizona numbers. Maybe we could package him in a deal for a minor league LOOGY for someone who’s hurting in the middle infield. I don’t think that he has any place in the Cardinal system if he can’t play this year, with the younger Pete Kozma gaining ground on him.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 10:03 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Crunching Numbers on Burke
Using his career wOBA to convert his offense into runs above average, and an arbitrary 400 PA’s: ((.304-.331)/1.15)*400=-9.39
Using Fangraphs, his defensive value (again, using career averages): UZR/150 at 2b=+10
Adjusting for the 2b position: 10-9.39 = .61….6122.5= +23.11 above replacement level 2b for 400 PA’s, which equates to 2.31 Wins. At an FA market value (5mil/win), he’d be worth 11.55m/season. Getting Burke would probably come out as a great deal for the Cards.
In addition, these numbers I picked worked out well since Miles received almost the same number of PA’s in 2008 as I abritrarily set for Burke (408), and his career wOBA is the exact same (.304). Thus, he will also be -9.39 runs below average.
However, Miles’ defense at second base (career UZR/150) is -3.5 runs below average. Adjusting for 2b again gives you (-9.39-3.5+22.5) 9.61 runs above replacement level, or .96 Wins. Thus, it behooves the Cards to go with Burke over Miles, since Burke is going to be between 1-1.5 wins MORE than Miles at probably the same cost.
The interesting thing is, I’m not even mentioning the fact that Burke is 4 years YOUNGER than Miles! Burke is in his prime right now (28) while Miles is 32.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 15, 2008 10:48 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Can you really call what Burke is going through right now as "prime"?
If this is his “prime”, it’s pretty sad.
He’s the equivalent to saying the guy who went to Arizona State University is in the prime of his life while all he does is study and go home on the weekends to hang out with his parents. Just because someone is in the age range of someone in their prime, doesn’t necessarily mean they’re living up to anything.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can really say that he's going through his baseball BIOLOGICAL prime right now.
Does that mean he’s setting the world on fire? No. But it’s well documented that 26-29 are the ‘prime’ years of people’s careers (and of COURSE there are outliers, but I’m generalizing here).
You can argue Burke sucks all you want, but the fact of the matter is, he’s an improvement over Miles at 2b. If you want an upgrade of about 1 win or so, then Burke should be your man since he’s cheap and doesn’t have to hit much, as long as he can play some defense. Of course, if you need to go the SS route as well, then find someone else, because Burke probably sucks at SS.
"I'm on hold for now"- Bobby Crosby
by DyeLongJustice on Dec 15, 2008 4:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
miles is also pretty bad, historically, at SS
The main thing that bothers me about Burke is his ~20% IFFB rate the past two years. I could see myself really, really disliking him after a month or so of that.
Great info in your post, btw. What do you mean when you say “Adjusting for the 2b position”?
(FYI you can use “pre” tags to make the math easier to read).
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 15, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kind of off subject,
but I saw, on MLBTR I think, that the Rockies would trade Atkins to the Giants for Sanchez. Made me wonder if the Giants would accept Craig or Freese in a deal for Sanchez.
by STLRegalia on Dec 15, 2008 11:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
If
they would take Craig, do it, do it now! If they would take Freese, think about it for a second, and then do it, do it now!
It was half my fault, and half the atmosphere.
by the red baron on Dec 15, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Giants are obvilously willing to spend money
and are trying to take advantage of a bad division, so I doubt they would trade a major league pitcher for a guy who’s never taken one at bat at the major league level to play third base. They’re looking for guys who are major league starters right now, and say what you will about Atkins, he has started and has a track record in the major leagues.
I know all about opportunity cost and how past results are no indication of future performance and all that jazz. But, the Giants aren’t going to trade Jonathan Sanchez for a AAA thridbaseman when they’re obviously trying to win the division.
So, I agree with Baron here when he says “Do it now!” since it would be a coup to get that deal done. Even though, there’s no chance in hell you could ever talk the Giants in to such a deal.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
these are the giants, we're talking about, here.
the renteria-gets-$18M-over-two-years giants.
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
which is why trading for a cost-controlled AAA guy when they could trade for an expensive and average third baseman who would see a drastic dropoff in power moving from Coors to AT&T would be more their course of action.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hell, can we
throw Glaus at them? That would be a classic Giants move.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 15, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if they would take glaus for sanchez, we should have done that yesterday.
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and if Glaus agrees to it.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 15, 2008 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see him itching to play for a non-contender in a pitchers' park
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 15, 2008 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i thought the reason they wouldnt take Craig or Freese
was bc they were trying to contend
by rlgosnell on Dec 17, 2008 2:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but why would we
we are trying to win this year too, and while I am a fan of Freese and Craig, I sure the heck like having a proven bat & glove at 3B if we are trying to win.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 15, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i like having sanchez and $11m to spend elsewhere.
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Sanchez has the potential to be really good
and I would like to see the Cards get him, no doubt about it. I would just want an established 3B for next season, at least until we see if any of our prospects are gonna be able to take over full time sooner than we think.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 15, 2008 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree completely
Thinking about it for a second would be ridiculous.
by mojowo11 on Dec 15, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
by in a deal,
I meant Craig/Freese packaged with another prospect or two. I would make suggestions, but I don’t know what the Giants are looking for, compared to what the cardinals have to offer…one of the surplus OF’s (Mather, Duncan, Skip, Barton, Stavinoha, jay, jones) maybe?
by STLRegalia on Dec 15, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hear
they’re looking for a left handed hitting first baseman.
It was half my fault, and half the atmosphere.
by the red baron on Dec 15, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Haha! /nelson
always fun when someone falls for that one…. =]
by FunkeeC on Dec 15, 2008 5:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my 2 cents
Keep the utility infielder cost down. Spend money on pitching. Let the kids compete in spring for that spot. Barden/Ryan/Green
by Walking Underwear on Dec 15, 2008 11:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
sounds about right to me
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Burke is a former Vol...
… so I am genetically required to root for him, whether he is a Cardinal or not. I’d be happy if the Cards picked him up.
Lou Brock loves Lamp.
by birdjam on Dec 15, 2008 11:09 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Add me to the Brian Barden camp...
we know Brendan Ryan can play both SS and 2B reasonably well (now, if he could only hit…) and Barden’s experience with Team USA indicates he wouldn’t be an embarrassment with the glove; spend whatever money’s available on pitching, pitching, pitching!
"In this game, don't nobody know nuthin' about nuthin'." -- attributed to Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra
by The Ol Goaler on Dec 15, 2008 12:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yup
or trade from the OF glut too
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Non-tender
erik put up a non-tender thread the other day, and I thought Burke’s name was interesting on there, and said so at the time. He’d certainly be an okay pickup if brought in as a non-roster invitee; anything more than that just isn’t necessary.
Personally, though, I’m in the Brian Barden camp. He has played shortstop quite a bit, and proven to be at least passable and usually better than that there, he’s shown enough bat in his minor league career that one would expect him to at least be able to hold down a utility job at the big league level, and he doesn’t cost anything.
Bring in Burke and take a look if you like, but I think Barden is the best overall choice for a backup IF the Cardinals have. And personally, I don’t think it’s even that close, even with Miles and what he brings to the table.
It was half my fault, and half the atmosphere.
by the red baron on Dec 15, 2008 12:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
yeah
we just don’t need Miles really.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am a big fan of miles, but for whatever reason the cardinals don’t believe he will ever be a starter. I think we have to let him go and see what the kids can do, that way either one of them can solidify the posistion or we can think about signing a higher priced FA next year
by ForesterShane on Dec 15, 2008 12:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I guess he could be a starting 2B
but his defense isn’t all that great, and with our starting pitching, me need a glove wizard
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
dude, if david eckstein is still getting looks as a starter, in some cases at SS
miles should get some looks as a starter at 2b.
miles ’09 > eckstein ’09
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
absolutely
but you know, eckstein is a bigger name, so therefore he must be better
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And
he would bring legitimacy back to my moniker!
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Dec 15, 2008 2:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I hit the stupid reply button. I swear it.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
by Eckstreem on Dec 15, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Furcal
Gets 4 years and $40 mil from the A’s
That greene trade is looking pretty awesome right now.
by Evilfrog on Dec 15, 2008 2:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Beane's spending wildly, cos he's annoyed that the royals scooped farnsworth out from under him.
Really, between this and the holliday signing you wonder where the cheapskate A’s of yesteryear went to.
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
guess he's going all in right now
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
weird time to pick right now -- the angels still look pretty formidable.
i don’t think k-rod’s departure is particularly awful for the Angels. Even if they don’t sign teixera, there are lots of options at 1B that would keep their offense humming (obviously, not at the same level, but more than adequately). Their rotation is sturdy.
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 3:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
their offense is in a world of hurt
even with tex they werent all that scary, if they fail to sign tex then that opens that door for the A’s big time
by FunkeeC on Dec 15, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
Vlad Guerrero ain’t what he used to be
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
BPro's 2nd/3rd order wins had the Angels at 84 wins for what it's worth
That’s before losing K-Rod, possibly Teixeira, Vladdy seeming on the decline.
By Inaz, the A’s picked up 5 wins with Holliday, Furcal potentially adds another 3 and that puts the A’s at 84, and a stacked farm system to deal for more by mid-season.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 15, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
doesn't make any sense to me. how could they go from a 100-win season to 84,
BEFORE deducting any players lost to free agency?
I have to imagine the Angels beat us out for Fuentes and sign either Tex or Adam Dunn.
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because they weren't actually that good last year
Their Pythag was outperformed by 12 wins (and it showed in the playoffs) and they didn’t hit or pitch enough to score as many/allow as few as they actually did. Basically every “luck” variable went in their favor last year during the regular season. It’s like a pitcher who has a low BABIP, a low HR/FB% and a high LOB%……the results looked pretty but the nuts and bolts say they weren’t really that great.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 15, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Very good point
I also think that playing in an awful division helped them out. The A’s weren’t very good, the Rangers can’t pitch at all, and the M’s are plain awful. That team is pretty poorly constructed with a pair of overpaid outfielders and a very old Vlad. Highly overrated team. They desperately need to resign Teixeira.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 15, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Dunn is possibly the most underrated hitter in baseball
and if you put him at DH, he’s very valuable.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of which...
If Beane is looking to make a run at a West Coast title, doesn’t Dunn seem like the perfect fit for his style of play? Seems to me that he could probably get him on a 3-4 year deal to DH moving Cust to 1B and Barton to the bench. Or you could just play Dunn at 1B. Either way, a lineup with on-basers like Holliday, Dunn, Cust, Furcal, Suzuki, Ellis, and Sweeney you have to figure that they would score quite a few more runs than they scored this year.
If they improved their scoring by 100 runs, which isn’t out of reach if you add Dunn, Holliday, and Furcal and get a full season out of Eric Chavez, and put together a similar pitching effort, their Pythag would be around 84-87 wins, which would be enough to compete in the division. They could also then deal from some of their minor league depth to get a stud starting pitcher or hitter at the deadline next year for the stretch run.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn or Giambi would be solid
This seems to be really a bargain winter so far. That is why I don’t have any problems with Moz taking it slow.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 15, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn is not his style.
Saving money is Beane’s style, and people like Dunn used to be undervalued.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 15, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn kind of still seems to be pretty undervalued
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 15, 2008 4:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
there aren’t very many legitimate 40 HR bats out there. He has gotten very little press this offseason.
by Toddius on Dec 15, 2008 4:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he's ridiculous
everything about him is pretty impressive except his batting average (and defense). the guy has more power than just about anyone, has a very high OBP, high BABIP, he just screams offensive ability
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
too bad
that he’s lazy and a big jerk
by Glowsticks on Dec 15, 2008 9:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And he doesn't like baseball...
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 10:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
I have not even heard a whisper of his name. This whole off season is all about poor fielding power corner out fielders. He seems to be the the most consistent and best of the bunch. He isn’t even a Type A free agent so he has no hang ups.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 15, 2008 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
D-Backs didn't even offer him arbitration
Some serious budget constraints over there.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 15, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if Ibanez gets 3yr 31M
Dunn just has to get quite a bit more than that, right? His value has to be at least 3YR 36 doesn’t it?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 15, 2008 5:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take him at 3Y 36M
Even with our glut of outfielders. He’d be a great 4 hole hitter on the Cardinal club, and he’s bound to be worth more than that over the life of the contract, even with his horrible defense.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wish MO could pull that off
that would just about make the offseason for me. Then trade Ank for a SP and we would be looking at one potentially great lineup.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 15, 2008 5:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what would be hillarious
if we spent that much on an extra outfield guy/pinch hitter
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no denying dunn is a great player.
but why would we sign ourselves up for someone that expensive, especially for THREE years.
I wouldn’t go dumpster diving for our middle infield and 2-3 starting pitchers to have a minor improvement in our outfield.
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Career OPS of .899 and Career OPS+ of 130
He allows the Cardinals to dangle Ankiel, Ludwick, or both to drum up a young starting pitcher or middle infielder.
Honestly, if you could get Dunn’s production for $12M per season for 3-4 years, you would be getting such a discount that it makes sense to sign him and trade our other outfield assets to get low cost solutions at other positions. You have to look at a deal like this in terms of opportunity cost. If you can get Dunn for $2-$3M below market value, it makes the most sense to do that because than you can dangle your surplus at his position to get young, cost-controlled talent that you can’t find on the free agent market.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 7:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn pretty much gives back all his offensive value with his glove
trading Ankiel or Ludwick to sign him is nuts.
by JI on Dec 15, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't say all
but definitely some
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 8:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
according to justin inaz
he gave back a surprisingly low 3 runs in 2008. Though he is also pretty dreadful at 1B, and wasn’t nearly as good offensively as his HR total and OBP would suggest.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 15, 2008 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Perception vs. Reality
Your perception of his as a defensive player is actually worse than he really is. He’s quite a bit better in LF than he is anywhere else, and he’s much better there than Chris Duncan is and carries a much better bat along with the ability to stay healthy. He was probably the unluckiest hitter in all of baseball last year and still put up a wOBA of .383. There’s absolutely no way that his fielding in LF reduces his value to the point where he’s not worth $12M per year for 3 years.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love Dunn, but Chris Duncan’s career -7.8 LF UZR/150 beats Adam Dunn’s -9.6. Dunn has been double-digit negative out there for the last four years and hasn’t been positive since 2002’s +4.1. Duncan’s last three years are -15.1, -11.7, and +9.6 so there’s improvement year-to-year, although still short on sample innings.
by astrostl on Dec 16, 2008 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have no idea how you could think that Adam Dunn isn't a complete butcher int he field.
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because I've watched him play, for one,
and that the defensive metrics show him to be worse than average, but not NEARLY as bad as Pat Burrell or Manny Ramirez are. He’s a pretty good athlete that’s been asked to play in 3 different positions within the framework of most seasons and could benefit from just staying in LF for a whole season or so.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Career LF UZR/150
Burrell: -5.5
Ramirez: -12.7
Dunn: -9.6
by astrostl on Dec 16, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and FWIW
all 3 of those guys get worse when you just consider recent history. Burrell in particular was actually an above-average outfielder through 2004, but 05-08 he’s been on a steep slide.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 16, 2008 3:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Manny is an interesting case
Last four years: -23, -26, -25, -6 (2008).
Green Monster conspiracy theories abound! :)
by astrostl on Dec 16, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've been wondering how well these metrics
take into account park effects. They would seem to distort corner outfielders quite a bit, even after assigning zones and things.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 16, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
why isn't he a
yankee?
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 15, 2008 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd hit him second
120 walks per year in front of Pujols. Try intentional walking the Mang then!
by mojowo11 on Dec 15, 2008 7:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So spending $40M on Raffy Furcal is saving money?
Spending $66M on Eric Chavez is saving money?
Beane likes to spend money on guys who can create the most value year over year, and guys who slug well and get on base tend to do that. This is the concept behind MoneyBall. An extension of that concept is focusing on finding market inefficiencies and exploiting them, which Beane has done in the past two seasons by trading marketable commodities like low cost starting pitching (Haren, Harden) and flexible position sluggers (Swisher) and getting low cost pitching and position player prospects in return.
Dunn is one of the hitters on the free agent market this season who is exactly the type of guy that Beane would covet. He’s currently undervalued, but yet he’s a better and more reliable Jack Cust. Yes, he would cost money, but if Billy is gearing up for a stretch run the next couple of years playing in a weak division, he might just pony up $36-40M for 3 or 4 years for Dunn’s services.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The concept behind moneyball is that,
OBP and SLG were undervalued relative to useless stats like SB and AVG and RBI in the late nineties and early ’00s. This is the opposite of what you said. This is a market inefficency, because some front offices were (and are) still reliant on conventional baseball wisdom.
Now, let me introduce you to another concept from moneyball, which you obviously haven’t read. Recreating the aggregate. The marginal improvement of Dunn over Cust is nothing compared to the potential improvement of Furcal over whatever terrible piece plays SS for the A’s next year. Granted, Dunn will probably be paid less this year than he is worth, but there’s a new market inefficency: Undervalued defense. The A’s are trying very hard to keep people like Dunn and Cust off the field. They’ve acquired above average defenders the past two offseasons, and they’re primarily targeting players who can actually field. If they pick up Giambi or Dunn, they will be doing it because they get a great deal, or because they really think they are going to win this year.
Also, as for the Chavez contract. In moneyball, Beane repeatedly compares Chavez to the likes of A-Rod and Barry Bonds. If either of them had signed that contract, the A’s would be in fantastic shape. They didn’t. Eric Chavez did, but that doesn’t mean that at the time the contract was signed it didn’t look to Beane like he was making the steal of his lifetime.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 15, 2008 11:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well said
I think people forget that Eric Chavez had borderline HOF talent. He was a comparable player to Scott Rolen, it’s just bad luck that injuries derailed his career,
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 12:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Where did I say that he wasn't?
The comment stated that Beane “is interested in saving money”, implying that he never signs free agents or his own players to high $$$ contracts, which simply isn’t true in the case of Chavez or the rumored offer to Furcal.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The questions should be:
Did you read MoneyBall?
&
Can you actually interpret the printed word?
OBP and SLG were undervalued relative to useless stats like SB and AVG and RBI in the late nineties and early ’00s. This is the opposite of what you said.
Actually, it’s EXACTLY WHAT I SAID. It just so happens that those two stats were undervalued by most GM’s who looked at counting stats, as you point out so eloquently. They also are undervalued because of ability of most players with those abilities to produce those particular rate stats year over year. Most players who are good at getting on base and hitting home runs generally are able to get on base and hit home runs year after year. There are many more of these players than there are guys who can hit for average and steal bases and reproduce those numbers in a productive fashion year after year.
While defense is undervalued, are you literally trying to tell me that having Daric Barton instead of Jack Cust or Adam Dunn, both horrific defenders, isn’t a net gain at that position? Better run the numbers again son, that ain’t even close to being true, even with defense factored into the equation.
Not to mention that one of Dunn/Cust is going to DH, thus rendering his defense moot, and the other is probably going to play 1B or LF, which minimizes their lack of defensive prowess by putting them in positions where defense doesn’t matter as much. Beane has always coveted players who can get on base and hit home runs — he hasn’t changed his stance on that, even while focusing on getting good defensive players. Just look at the Oakland roster for Pete’s Sake!
As for Mr. Chavez…I didn’t say that it wasn’t a good contract, it was a great contract for the team had he turned into the player that everyone expected him to become. This is your original quote:
Dunn is not his style. Saving money is Beane’s style, and people like Dunn used to be undervalued.
Which, of course, you just contradicted by saying that the Chavez deal was a “great value”. He either spends money or he doesn’t, and he spent money on Chavez, which is what I was pointing out.
My point was that Beane will open his pocketbook when he sees a player that he can sign for great value — he isn’t just about “saving money”. Signing Dunn for 3Y$36M to split time at DH and LF would be a great value. Also, people like Dunn still are undervalued, or he wouldn’t still be on the FA market with teams like Tampa, Seattle, Minny, and Oakland still holding relative zeroes at their DH position.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe the White Sox haven't gone after Dunn yet.
Granted, they’d probably need to trade Dye, but they could definitely do that. You stick him in right field for a year with some time at first. Then next year, he either takes over first or DH and becomes a much younger version of Jim Thome. In that stadium, he’d hit 60 home runs a year.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
everyone gets scared off by his batting average
obviously they aren’t very enlightened
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn is really really bad at defense
has played in an NL bandbox most his career, and has huge collapse potential.
My guess is that he’d be overvalued.
by JI on Dec 15, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually he was super unlucky last year
Dunn was one of the most unlucky players in baseball last year.
2008 Dunn Adam ARI
PrOPS OPS PrOPS – OPS
.983 .889 -0.094
2008 Dunn Adam CIN
PrOPS OPS PrOPS – OPS
1.032 .901 -0.131
(PrOPS – OPS negative numbers mean unlucky)
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 15, 2008 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn has consistently been overrated by prOPS his entire career
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 15, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Those reasons
are all the more reason that he’s undervalued. Dunn has led the majors in “no-doubt” home runs the last two seasons, and those numbers are based on the average major league park, not his home park.
Dude hits the ball a country mile, so playing in GAB really hasn’t inflated his numbers a whole lot. He also gets on base at a .380 clip for his career so even when he’s not hitting he has a value because he walks a ton.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Rough estimate
Dunn in 2008:
Batting: ~.378 wOBA*
Defense: -20
Position: -0.5
Playing time: .98
= 2.1 WAR
Adam Dunn is not very good, he probably won’t make it to the end of any significant LT deal without collapsing on offense in addition to his bad D.
by JI on Dec 15, 2008 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
why the heck
would he collapse on offense?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's a young guy with older player skills
who is going to enter his thirties in year 2 of any deal.
Sure, you can roll the dice and hope his bat speed doesn’t decline until he turns 33-34, but if his bat speed declines by just a little, much like Richie Sexson, he’s toast. If he’s playing the field his defense will almost surely get worse just because he’ll get slower as he ages, if his defense gets any worse, of if he’s not able to play 155 games a season, you are looking at a sub 2 WAR player.
by JI on Dec 15, 2008 9:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You didn't just compare Adam Dunn to Richie Sexson did you?
Really? Talk about looking at only the stats you want to see…
Dunn walks about 50 more times a year than Sexson does over the course of his career. He’s also hit 40 homers 5 seasons in the row, something Sexson did only twice in his entire career. Dunn’s career OBP is about 40 points higher than Sexson’s, so even if he slips to 30 homers a year he’s still going to be a productive player offensively, just by getting on base at a .380 clip. Sexson’s wOBA at his peak was about what Dunn’s wOBA career average is. If you look at counting stats they are similar players — if you look at saber stats, Dunn is clearly a superior player to Sexson. If you want to compare Sexson to somebody, use Pat Burrell, they are very similar players. If you want to compare Dunn to someone, use this guy or this guy, both of whom had similar career numbers through age 29 and had long productive careers after that. If you want to cherry-pick Richie Sexson, I can cherry pick two HOF players. Incidentally, both of those Hall of Famers got a lot of grief about their defense over the years as well.
He’s also not near as bad defensively as you make him out to be. He was a -11 player (by UZR/150) in the outfield, where he belongs, over his career. Had teams focused on letting him play LF, where he’s -9.6, maybe he would have had an opportunity to get better at that position, as Chris Duncan has shown he can do.
I believe that his true offensive talent is around .390 wOBA, your 2008 numbers are actually off — he was a .383 wOBA combined last year (his career average btw), and happened to be one of the unluckiest hitters in the majors, so his wOBA will probably rebound a bit.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Addendum
In a market where Raul Ibanez, a similar/worse outfielder and worse hitter than Dunn who is also 7 years older, gets 3Y$30M, how is 3Y$36 or 4Y$48 for Dunn NOT an extremely great bargain?
I mean, Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn are probably smiling ear to ear after that contract right?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He compared Dunn to a YOUNG Richie Sexon
Not to the post-Brewers Sexon, who everyone agrees is horrible, and drives all of those career numbers waaaay down. Sexon used to post OBPs in the .360s-.370s, strike out a lot, and had a lot of HR power. It’s not a perfect analogy, as sexon was a lot more inconsistent, and probably didn’t have quite as much HR power (though he didn’t play in as much of a hitters’ park). But it’s not ridiculous
And if you look at Dunn’s Baseballreference, there are a few guys who were awesome and then fell off of a cliff: Darryl Strawberry, Rocky Colavito, José Canseco, and Roger Maris.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 16, 2008 12:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
Dunn hasn’t snorted cocaine and had myriad problems with drug abuse and he didn’t use steroids to the point where his body was breaking down either, so the comparisons to Strawberry and Canseco are probably out. I don’t think Maris is a great comparison because his best years came as a Yankee when he played in a great lineup. He really wasn’t all that great in his career outside of his time with the Yankees when he won two World Series.
Colavito is a good comparison for Dunn, although I also posted comparisons of two guys with much longer careers that had similar numbers to Rocky Colivito through his age 29 season.
Bottom line, saying that Dunn might to follow Richie Sexson’s career path is a pretty poor argument for saying that he isn’t worth signing for longer than three years. It’s an exercise in cherry-picking, and he could have picked a bunch of other players could come up with a bunch of other players with Dunn’s skill set who were productive into their age 35,36, and 37 seasons.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 1:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a perfect analogy because Sexson made more contact than Dunn does
If anything that makes it more likely Dunn will collapse before Sexson did.
*Plus Sexson’s first year in Seattle was pretty damn good. >:(
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No he didn't
Dunn’s contact percentages via Fangraphs both outpace Sexson’s.
Also, when you use the term “bat-speed”, it shows that you don’t know what you’re talking about. Albert Pujols has one of the slowest bats in the majors, but he’s also the best hitters in the last quarter century, so bat speed doesn’t tell the whole story. Richie Sexson had a much longer swing than Adam Dunn. Dunn has a more compact swing, and those tend to age better. He’s a much better low ball hitter than Sexson was, and has shown the ability to lay off the high fastballs, hence the high walk rate.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Uh less bat speed, means less contact
Once Dunn starts to decline he’ll decline from a .240 base, Pujols will decline from a .330 one, it doesn’t matter how fast they are, it matters when age starts to take over and their bats becomes slower and hurt their abilities to make contact.
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That isn't even remotely close to true
First, bat speed has very little to do with making contact. Pujols already has one of the slowest bats in the majors and has a high contact rate. Dunn currently has better batspeed than Pujols, but his swing isn’t as planar and doesn’t allow him to hit well in every part of the strike zone, so he doesn’t make as good of contact. Bat speed has very little, if anything at all, to do with it.
If you want to make the bat speed argument, which you shouldn’t unless you’re Joe Morgan and believe everything Charlie Lau tells you, then I would also add that those players with great bat speed don’t usually lose their quick bat as they get older. Jim Thome, Gary Sheffield, and Manny Ramirez have been able to keep a pretty constant bat speed throughout their careers. Thome has similar skills to Dunn, as astrostl has pointed out below.
I’ve yet to see a study that states that bat speed is the key to making good contact and I highly doubt that it is true.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 3:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
" pujols has one of the slowest bats in the majors "
Really? Where did you get this information? I always thought albert had exceptional bat speed.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 16, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't have a link
because I can’t remember where I saw the study that was done.
Essentially the “bat speed” that Jl and Joe Morgan talk about is how fast the bat moves through the zone. Albert doesn’t move the bat through the zone as fast as most players. However, in terms of getting the bat to the ball, he is one of the best players at getting the bat from the starting position to where the ball is. His power is generated mostly from the rotation of his hips and core as the bat moves through the contact zone. His incredible contact rate comes from the long plane of his swing, which allows him to hit nearly any ball at any position in the strike zone. Couple that with incredible eyesight and great plate discipline and you have a recipe for a great hitter. Is this the only way to get it done? No, it’s not, but neither is it necessary to have great bat speed in order to be a great hitter, it all depends on where the speed of the bat occurs. Here’s a link that explains what I’m saying more eloquently than I can.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So....
A player with a longer swing must have greater bat speed when compared to a player with a shorter swing?
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 16, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Because it takes them longer to get the head of the bat to the contact position and they also tend to swing less with their bodies and more with their arms, i.e. they don’t swing “rotationally”.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So what you are saying
is that if Dunn lost some of his batspeed it wouldn’t affect his ability to make contact.
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It might
but it might not.
He could shorten his swing to make up for the difference in bat speed (as Julio Franco did in the late stages of his career), he could also lay off more pitches that he is having difficulty getting to (high fastballs) and focus on hitting pitches that make it easier to get his bat through the zone (off-speed pitches, balls in lower part of the strike zone).
You can’t just make a blanket statement and say that a drop in bat speed automatically leads to a swift decline. You also can’t make the assertion that every player loses his bat speed when he hits a certain age or that players with certain types of swings lose their ability to hit simply because their bat speed lags. It just isn’t that simple.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think “Once Dunn starts to decline” is the heart of the issue. Everyone will agree that once a player starts to decline, they decline, but why is it that you seem to feel it’s imminent for a 29 year-old player with good plate discipline stats?
by astrostl on Dec 16, 2008 3:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
As this and other links posted indicate, Dunn has the classic older players skillset. Players who make little contact and pile up huge strikeouts tend to decline very quickly.
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Except for
a whole slew of players that have been named in this thread. Jim Thome hasn’t shown a huge decline has he? He has the exact skill set that you just put out there.
I disagree with the fact that they “tend to decline very quickly”. Just because some players have doesn’t mean that is the norm. I think I’ve put enough evidence out there to show that there are just as many and probably more players with the skill set you described that have had successful seasons through their late 30’s as there are players who fell off the shelf between the ages of 30-32.
Rob Deer? Really? Dude never saw a pitch he didn’t like to swing at. Why don’t you just compare him to Bob Hamelin too while you’re at it. It’s like your goal is to compare Dunn to every guy who’s struck out a ton while hitting some home runs.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 3:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You aren't adjusting for era
Killebrew and Jackson were actually relatively good at making contact, their hit totals were depressed because offense was down across the boar in the mid to late 60s and early 70s, and Reggie played in pitchers’ parks almost his whole career.
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“Dunn’s not fast and doesn’t make contact, and those guys age badly”
High walk rates are like an MLB anti-aging drug, though, and he’s got that in spades. I still wouldn’t want to pay him 3/30 to DH, but I think there’s an agreeable number in there somewhere for both sides (whoever the team is).
by astrostl on Dec 16, 2008 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So you'd be talking about
a .210/.310/.400 hitter who can’t field. Yick.
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 2:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
actually
You’d be talking about a .210/.350/.420 hitter most likely — in other words, Nick Swisher last year at the plate. Dunn’s OBP is just about always around .130 – .150 points better than his BA over the course of his career.
You’re literally trying to predict a complete decline in a player who has shown no signs of declining skills yet. He was actually better at making contact and not striking out in 2008, so it’s possible that he may be MORE valuable offensively in the next couple of years than he has been prior to this.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's one hell of a drop
Dunn career: .247/.381/.518
Dunn 2008: .236/.386/.513
His career ISOp (isolated patience=OBP-AVG) is .134, so even if he hit .210 you could reasonably expect a .344 OBP – likely more since he’s probably taking as he ages.
That would be a dramatic decrease in ISO (isolated power=SLG-AVG) too. Is there a precedent for that? Thome still seems to mash, for example.
He has “old dude skills,” but let’s not forget that Adam Dunn is only 29 years of age.
by astrostl on Dec 16, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope you realize, as I do
That you can’t win arguments with someone who is convinced that he’s subjectively correct, even though there is plenty of evidence to the contrary.
It’s completely subjective in that he thinks he’s in for a precipitous decline when he hits age 30 even though there is absolutely no evidence that it’s going to happen…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reasoned discussion never hurts IMO.
by astrostl on Dec 16, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Though there is absolutely no evidence that it’s going to happen
Wrong.
Let’s see, some of Dunn’s similar player PECOTA players from a few years ago:
Glaus, Kevin Mass, Rob Deer, Mike Epsiten
We know Glaus. Epstien was toast at 30, Deer was finished at 32. Sexson (who has been mentioned as a comparable by more than one reputable analyst) stated to fall off at 31, and was completely finished at 32.
The odds of Dunn lasting to the age of 33 as a productive hitter are not good, and there’s a real chance he’ll be finished within two years.
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here are his PECOTA projections
2009: .253/.377/.520
2010: .249/.374/.520
2011: .251/.379/.525
Notable drop to .240/.362/.488 in 2013.
by astrostl on Dec 16, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
IMO, PECOTA's LT projections aren't that useful
but fair enough.
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I only brought his PECOTA projections into the discussion because you mentioned PECOTA comps (which are factored into the projections).
“The most comparable players” list at BP pulls up nothing in my browser. Is that where you got your list of names?
by astrostl on Dec 16, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dunn's B-R comps
through age 28:
Of his top 10 comps, the only ones who were finished as effective ballplayers before age 35, were guys who played in the 60’s/early 70’s. many of his top comps are guys renowned for their longevity, like Reggie Jackson and Barry Bonds.
I think there is plenty of reason to be concerned, but his odds of being effective 4 years from now are higher than you make it seem.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 16, 2008 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
B-R comps aren't all that useful
90% of those guys are way better contact hitter than Dunn is
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A fun point on comps
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/looking-at-what-dunn-has-done/
This got me thinking how many people have posted sub-.230 batting averages while simultaneously producing OPS counts of .900 or higher. Querying for all players satisfying these parameters while amassing 400 or more plate appearances, I found… nobody. I couldn’t find any player that has ever hit .230 or lower with an OPS .900 or higher.
by astrostl on Dec 16, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is getting unreadable.
Open a fanpost, guys. I suggest the title:
“Adam Dunn: Suck? Or no suck??”
by tom s. on Dec 16, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like it when the boxes
get really tiny. I want to see how small they can get.
by spants on Dec 17, 2008 1:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry spants
I think this is as small as it gets :<
by astrostl on Dec 17, 2008 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Before the upgrade
they got a lot smaller.
I’d make the very nerdy joke, “Shut off all the garbage smashers in the detention level!” each and every time.
The column would shrink to one word per line.
by liam on Dec 17, 2008 3:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
change it to a .240 BA
and still only one person compares-Mickey Tettleton, who was effective through his age-35 season.
In that link, when he changed it to OPS+, gene tenance was identified as a comparable player. Tenance was effective through age 35, though his 2 years with STL (age 34-35, 131 and 161 OPS+) he was a platoon player.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 16, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His walks will go down once pitchers have less reason to fear him
and he’ll probably see more strike whether it’s due to more swings and misses or more strikes in the zone.
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 3:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That article is awful
Sorry, but it provides no proof whatsoever that Dunn is about to decline precipitously; it just assumes it.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 16, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like that article
its full of opinion and even makes a veiled reference to Dunn being lazy and a poor clubhouse guy.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 16, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you refuse to accept that high K, low BA players
decline once they hit 31-32, then I don’t know what to say.
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think anyone is refusing anything here, just trying to draw fair conclusions from objective and citable data.
by astrostl on Dec 16, 2008 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
there's no doubt that they decline
but 31-32 is too young. I’d be surprised if Dunn was still effective at age 35, but at age 32 I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t hit 30+ HR and have a 120+ OPS+.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 16, 2008 3:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He’ll be 29 for the entire 2009 season, then 30 for 2010, then 31 for 2011 too – so even JI’s aggressive decline assumptions shouldn’t hit a theoretical 3/30M deal very hard.
by astrostl on Dec 16, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I refuse to accept it
Because you haven’t provided any evidence that this is a trend, only examples of players that it has happened to.
Based on your evidence, it does not seem at all likely that Adam Dunn will be a useless ballplayer at any stage of a 3Y$36M or 4Y$48M contract. In fact, given my evidence, I expect him to be a pretty good ballplayer until he is 34-35 years old, so even 6 year contract would be in order because he doesn’t turn 30 until AFTER next season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 16, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it's known to be a trend
Bill James identified it some time ago. Google “old player skills” to find links to the original abstract article and about a million other articles talking about it.
He himself specifically warned about taking it too seriously, though. Unfortunately, others have taken his good work and turned it into a Rule, which it isn’t (and James never meant it to be).
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 18, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
For Fun:
Dunn:
Batting: ~.378 wOBA*
Defense: -10
Position: -0.5
Playing time: .98
=3 WAR
If his defense is -15: 2.5 WAR
If his D is -10, but his PT is only .85: 2.6 WAR
If his D is -20, and his PT is only .85: 1.8 WAR
There is no case to be made, especially on a tight budget to sign him at all. You may as well spend your money on Lowe/Pettitte/Johnson/Sheets and at least get someone better than league average for your investment.
by JI on Dec 16, 2008 2:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
5 comments to this already
and nobody has pointed out how great a deal that actually is in terms of $$$. Yes it takes him to his age 35 season, but there were a ton of people on here who thought he would get 3-4Y and $45-$60M or so. Considering his market value this seems to be a good deal — if he stays healthy at all, he’ll probably be worth at least $10M in the final year of that contract.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Furcal
WAR
Marcel offense: +4 runs
UZR/150 defense: -5 runs
Positional Adjustment: +7.5 runs
Replacement Level: +20 runs
Playing Time: 85%
Aging: -.3 WAR after 2009
WARs for 2009-2012: 2.25, 1.95, 1.65, 1.35
Total WAR: 7.2
$$/WAR = 5.5M
Seems like a bit of an overpay to me in terms of actual production. Intuitively, I like the deal for the A’s but the numbers don’t necessarily bear that out.
by azruavatar on Dec 15, 2008 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So if I'm doing the math here...
Your total WAR has his total value for those four years worth 7.2TW * 5.5M = $39.6M. If he signs for $40M and it’s truly set out as exactly $10M per year, then by time value of money alone this contract works in Oaklands favor. If it’s backloaded in a format of something like $8M, $10M, $11M, $11M then it slightly works out for Furcal.
You also have to think that the value of WAR is probably going to inflate a bit over the next four years, making that supposed $11M in 2009 look like a pretty good value.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t really know how much of an impact things like inflation really has on backloading contracts so I can’t speak to that. Historically, free agent costs over the last decade or so have gone up about 10% a year (so if the 2009 $$/WAR = 5M than 2010 = 5.5M).
I’ve seen the guys at fangraphs assign a 10% discount for long term deals as well, but I’m not sure I agree with that.
The $$/WAR is what the A’s are paying for under this analysis, which is high compared to estimates for what they “should” be paying this year (especially in a depressed market).
by azruavatar on Dec 15, 2008 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think the 10% rule is going to work anymore
I think contracts are going to go down in compassion to last year. So it is going to become more difficult to assign costs to win looking into the future
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 15, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Over the course of 5 years I'll bet you a dollar 10% is about accurate
MLB franchise values have grown at ~15% when things are going right. The recession won’t last forever, in fact by the 2010 season the economy will probably be rebounding in a big way.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 15, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree about the Economy
I don’t see an up tick till at least 2011. Any investment that grows like 15% a year like clock work is a great one. I see a down turn in player contracts.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 15, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say clockwork
That’s why I said “when things are going right”, which they will be doing once this eventually does end and historically that means big time progress. Even if you are saying 2011, that means you are going to see serious growth for 3 years out of a 5 year contract. It’s not as simple as “it’s going to decline next year”. That’s 1/5 of the picture.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 15, 2008 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see any serious growth for 3 years out of 5
This is going to progressively get worst which most people don’t seem to be grasping.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 15, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't mean this flippantly --
are you an economist?
by azruavatar on Dec 15, 2008 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, I am an economist
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 15, 2008 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So
Economic outlook differences aside…….despite the fact that: Renteria gets 2/18.5, we just saw by far the largest pitcher contract in history, Raul Ibanez got 3/30, Casey Blake 3/17.5, AJ Burnett 5/82.5, Kyle Farnsworth 2/9.5, and Teixeira is gonna get at least 8/160 (all seemingly properly valuing or even overvaluing past 4.5-5M*WAR=salary estimations)——player contracts handed out this off-season are going to decline in value and will continue to do at best mediocre growth over the course of 5 years?
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 15, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i would say that the top 5 percent of FA will get/have already got their money
but i think the lower tier will be very much affected. imo this is why Mo and many other gm’s were dodging arb for players as they expect the market to be so soft that they will be able to get the same players or comparable players for much cheaper than their arb rates
by FunkeeC on Dec 15, 2008 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have come to the same conclusion
The ‘Top’ talent was not affected as much. The biggest contracts have come from the Yankee’s who had the most money to spend by such a large margin due to so many contracts coming off the books plus tax deductions from their new stadium. K-Rod received a large contract but it was still half what he was hoping for.
I expect middle to lower tier players will take large pay hits in comparison to last year.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 15, 2008 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Farnsworth, Renteria, Ibanez and Blake weren't mid/lower level?
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 15, 2008 7:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Stupid moves normally happen early
Everyone of those contracts are bad signing, imo. I am still shaking my head on the Ibanez signing. It is something that can’t be judged really till the end of the signing season. Their will be a lot of good looking signing by the end.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 15, 2008 7:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
According to a few sites,
the average being paid per WAR is actually lower or close to the same as last year. Sabathia got less per WAR than FAs did last year.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 16, 2008 12:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Could you point me in that direction?
I’d really, really like to see the Sabathia thing especially given he got 7 years and an out clause if things don’t go his way. It blows away the Santana deal when Sabathia is not as good…
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 16, 2008 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
let's hope
hope for and work toward the best, expect the worst, I say.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 15, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Seems like a bit of an overpay to me in terms of actual production. Intuitively, I like the deal for the A’s but the numbers don’t necessarily bear that out.
I have a hard time believing that he is a true talent -5 on defense. I would wager that there’s something here the A’s know tha we don’t.
by JI on Dec 15, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
By UZR/150, which is what az is using, he’s rated right around there for most of his career when playing SS.
I think that most of us generally overrate players based on their tool set, and Furcal is quick, speedy, and has a great arm, so we assume that he’s going to be an above average defender.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm using UZR
but I’m also inclined to think Furcal is more like an average SS. I try to run the numbers without introducing any bias and then do a gut check at the end.
(PS — my gut says that the main post is overvaluing Burke’s skillset. I don’t think he’s a league average player at 2B even though the numbers do.)
by azruavatar on Dec 15, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FYI, this story says he was offered 4y/40m.
not that he accepted it.
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
again, it's not a steal b/c it's an offer, not an agreement.
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
same money as edgar
i’d say so
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 15, 2008 10:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure where else to pose this question...
How far away is Brian Anderson from being a trade chip? What would an Anderson/Ankiel(or other OF) package garner the cardinals in the market right now? Hughes from NYY?
by STLRegalia on Dec 15, 2008 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If you're going to try to move Anderson/Ankiel...
The best move to me would be trying to pry Clay Buchholz or Justin Masterson from the Red Sox, IMO. I’d prefer Masterson because I think that he’s a better pitcher, although their numbers from last year and the minor leagues look fairly similar and Marcel projects them to be nearly identical pitchers by FIP next year.
The Sox need a catcher and a left handed bat, unless they sign Teixeira, and there’s been some rumors that they may be in on him. I think Ank would probably play CF for them with Drew in RF and Ellsbury in left.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
I should have prefaced this by saying the there’s a rumor going around that they’re looking to deal a pitcher to the Rangers for one of their young catchers, either Saltalamacchia or Teagarden. I think Anderson is probably just as good as Teagarden and he’s quite a bit younger, although he’s not as good as Saltalamacchia offensively (supposedly, though Salty hasn’t hit much at the big league level yet), I think he’s probably better defensively.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 3:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You like Masterson better?
Huh. I’m a big fan of Buccholz, think he’s a much better pitcher in the long run, though Masterson does have that wicked sinker. Any particular reason you like Masterson better? Just curious.
Though, I would gladly take either of them off Epstein’s hands, of course.
It was half my fault, and half the atmosphere.
by the red baron on Dec 15, 2008 3:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I like Masterson better for a couple reasons
- His sinker is absolutely filthy at times — I’m talking Brandon Webb filthy.
- His style fits much better with our organizational philosophy of pitch-to-contact.
- He has one more cost controlled year and all things being equal if they are the same pitcher, take the extra year right?
- He was a much more reliable pitcher in 2008. Buchholz just looks like he lost something last year, although he was really unlucky (.366 BABIP last season).
I also think that Masterson has better mechanics after watching them both pitch. Watching Buchholz, he seems to have an inverted L/inverted W type of motion with his arm, like our own Chris Carpenter, which causes elbow problems down the line.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A few counterpoints...
I don’t think Masterson’s arm angle is conducive to being a true starter. Generally slingers are vulnerable against opposite-handed hitters, although his numbers against lefties this season weren’t bad. I confess I don’t know much about his changeup, although this dude’s data as of June 8th showed he’d been having success to that point. If he develops that changeup, he could be very tough on lefties too b/c that sinker moves so damn much…but until them I’m not sold on him as a starter.
I would also amend your comment that the inverted L/W DOES cause arm problems to MAY cause arm problems. I’d say that timing issues are more important, and furthermore whatever Mr. O’Leary says looking at video of already-injured guys who happen to do the L/W (which should just be called the M anyway) isn’t a scientific study. For the record, I love Buchholz’s stuff, but his delivery…eh…not so much.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 15, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Clarification
I would also amend your comment that the inverted L/W DOES cause arm problems to MAY cause arm problems. I’d say that timing issues are more important,
I was under the impression that having an inverted L or inverted W causes the timing issues that end up causing so many pitchers with these mechanics. From O’Leary’s blog:
WHY THE INVERTED W IS BAD
Like the Inverted L, I don’t think the Inverted W is (that) bad in and of itself. Instead, the problem with the Inverted W is that it can create a timing problem where the PAS forearm is not in the proper, vertical position at the moment the GS foot lands and the shoulders start to rotate.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Driveline Mechanics looked at Buchholz awhile back and he doesn't have a timing problem
Nor does he make the inverted L or W if you believe what these guys are selling.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 15, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm looking at more and more pictures
and I’m beginning to think that he doesn’t have an inverted W like I thought originally. he seems to lean a bit towards third base, which may explain why some photos make him look like he has this problem. From the shots I have looked at in the past couple of minutes it doesn’t look that way.
Also, he’s apparently dating a former Penthouse Pet…scoring big on and off the field apparently…
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 15, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not to get into this too much
But neither did Kelvim Escobar but Jake Peavy does. How’s that workin out. This L/W/timing stuff is far from proven.
I don’t see why it’s not possible that the L/W/Whip arm actions allow a pitcher to throw harder which inherently results in a higher injury risk.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 15, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
how's that working out?
ask peavy in 2011.
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And all these guys would've said "hows that workin out, ask Peavy in 2004" 6 years ago
I betcha the Angels would like to trade Kelvim Escobar’s lack of an inverted W or timing flaw for Peavy right now.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 15, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't Peavy on the DL a couple of times last year?
Or am I mis-remembering? Elbow, right?
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It can...but...
…as O’Leary’s own writing there says “it can,” not that it “does.” Like I said, he’s not terribly scientific about his analysis and makes overly simplified generalizations. That doesn’t make him wrong, just not an absolute authority on the subject.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 15, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he called the carpenter elbow injury
said when we signed him to an extension that it was a bad idea
by VolsnCards5 on Dec 15, 2008 10:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I predict AJ Burnett will get injured
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 15, 2008 11:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I said the same thing.
I don’t purport to be an “injury expert” without any kind of validation though. O’Leary and Will Carroll still need to prove that they are actually predicting injuries to specific players rather than predicting that some injuries are going to happen to some players next year.
by azruavatar on Dec 16, 2008 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If they were predicting specific injuries to specific players,
they’d be collecting their gigantic paychecks from ASMI, having Theo Epstein kiss their pinky rings, and hanging out in their houses in Fiji with their smoking-hot trophy-wives. But just because they aren’t doing that doesn’t mean their work has no value. Smoking a single cigarette isn’t likely to give you cancer, and forcefully hyperabducting your arm only increases the likelihood of impingement and increases the stress on your MCL. The same person who hasn’t yet ruined his career doesn’t prove it’s not grinding his supraspinatus against his acromion process; it’s exactly the same way that your grandad’s dad who drank a fifth of whiskey every day and smoked unfiltered pall malls by the dozen never got cancer. It simply increased the likelihood that he would.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 16, 2008 12:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, watch the Grandpa talk...
…He was a Marlboro guy!
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 16, 2008 12:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“forcefully hyperabducting your arm only increases the likelihood of impingement and increases the stress on your MCL.”
They’ve shown no data to prove that actions like that are characteristics of pitchers who get hurt more often than those who don’t. Until there’s a study that shows 60% of pitchers that do X get injured while only 30% of pitchers who don’t do X get injured there’s a huge gap in results. I’m not saying there’s no value in there work but there’s a significant lack of quantified evidence to prove their methods.
by azruavatar on Dec 16, 2008 9:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And...
…does the W/L hurt your shoulder or your elbow? Apparently it can hurt either depending on the situation…in fact, every single arm injury can be explained by the W or L!
You’ve hit on something very important…no data to support the assertion that making a W or L actually causes damage to the tissues of the arm, and that it is ONLY the W/L that causes said damage and not some other external variable that was not accounted for.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 16, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He predicted a guy with a long history of arm troubles...
…would have more arm troubles. Really stepping out on a limb.
He propped Schilling up as an all-time great. Then he got hurt and miraculously he changed his tune and found several things wrong with Schilling. That doesn’t add up. He tries to give Jim Palmer as an example of a person who retired because of arm troubles, but Palmer made 521 career starts and averaged 32 starts/season for nearly 20 years.
My point is this…when you’re in the business of predicted n=1 studies, you’ll be right sometimes, and you’ll be wrong sometimes. My issue with him is not his conclusion…it’s the manner in which he arrived at it. He undertakes this in a non-scientific way (no isolated variables=confounding, only looks at guys who are already hurt instead of guys who are blank slates [but hedges his bets later by saying he didn’t like the guy at the time when no proof exists one way or the other about what he said]) and then tries to pass his information off as pure gold. It doesn’t work that way.
Please understand that I don’t say this to tear the man apart…he seems genuine in his desire to understand this stuff…However, when a person tries to pass themselves off as a complete and total expert while using a system that is flawed, that isn’t right. These issues would go away if he would change his tone from “This WILL cause problems” to “my research indicates that this COULD lead to problems.” Does that seem like a semantic issue? Yeah, probably…but those two statements are worlds apart from each other.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 16, 2008 12:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree.
There is an unscientific element to his analysis that irks me. That said, there really isn’t much good science going on regarding pitching mechanics, and because he’s much better than, say, crackpots like Mike Marshall, I usually try to support him.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
by hazel on Dec 16, 2008 1:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“because he’s much better than, say, crackpots like Mike Marshall”
How can you know this?
by azruavatar on Dec 16, 2008 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Moyer signed a two year with the phils.
No word on money. Per espn.
by tom s. on Dec 15, 2008 3:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
moyer looking to compete with
julio franco in age
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
by punchinjudy on Dec 15, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't Franco
always gonna win that battle?
by spants on Dec 15, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
well Moyer could catch up to him
I am pretty sure Franco wouldn’t like the way that would have to happen
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 15, 2008 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Phillies are signing some ugly contracts
Moyer and Ibanez!?
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 15, 2008 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what's so bad about Ibanez?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Old and even worst than Burrell at Defense
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 15, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Unspectacular hitter, worst defensive outfielder in the AL.
He’s barely above replacement level if he’s playing the OF.
by JI on Dec 15, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Gotta say
When I saw the title of this post, I thought you were going out on a limb and predicting a big season from C-Dunc, a lonely perch that I would have joined you on.
I could see him once again setting up shop in front of Pujols in the lineup, with Lud, Glaus, and Ankiel behind until some trade happened. That’d be a potent lineup if the dancing bear comes back looking like he did before the health problems.
by liam on Dec 15, 2008 4:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Am I the only one that thinks
That Chris Duncan is one of the players to be named later in the Padre’s deal
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 15, 2008 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
doubtfull
Don’t the PTBNL have to switch leagues? Or is that something I just made up in my head.
by Evilfrog on Dec 15, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that is the rule
unless they have changes it recently. I guess you could get around that by sending Duncan to the minors before trading him though
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 15, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's news to me
So are you saying, the player has to change leagues (any leagues?). Like PCL to MLB? Would AL to NL work to? So, it can be up/down or horizontal?
Sorry, I’ve just never been aware of this.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't aware of that either
until a couple weeks ago. I ran across an article on ESPN.com about it (I have no idea why I was on ESPN.com), but that article isn’t up anymore. I did find this saying the same thing, and this one from Cot’s also says that the player may not be an active MLB player during the interval between the trade and the date the player is named.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 15, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and Cot's also has
the 2007-2011 Basic Agreement
Now that is a fascinating read!
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 15, 2008 6:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Al to Nl is ok
Im pretty sure its so the Padres couldn’t take one of our guys off of the MLB roster in the middle of a Wild Card race.
by Evilfrog on Dec 15, 2008 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well
if he’s healthy and ready to play, I guess he could be.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 15, 2008 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought they said the PTBNL was NOT on the ML roster in 2008
by Walking Underwear on Dec 15, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They did
but technically, Dunc was on the DL, so maybe thats a loophole or semantics or something.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think he will be.
Not sure the Padres want a crappy outfielder in their expansive park, and they already have a LH-batting first baseman in Adrian Gonzalez. I just don’t think he’ll have much value there.
This is just my hunch.
by spants on Dec 15, 2008 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
cdunc is called
the “dancing bear” . . . wasn’t kent bottenfield the dancing bear?
"I wouldn’t have seen it if I hadn’t believed it.’" ~Shannon
by sprfldcard on Dec 15, 2008 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what his official nickname is
but I know I always called him the Dancing Bear because that’s what he looked like when he played the outfield.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 5:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I always thought
he looked more like a newborn horse.
by spants on Dec 15, 2008 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly what picture of Duncan were you looking at?
jk
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not that he resembles a horse physically.
But his legs are all herky-jerky like a horse that is walking for the first time.
by spants on Dec 15, 2008 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You obvioulsy didn't get the joke I was going for.
See, I tried to clean it up way too much and as a result, no one got it. Damn political correctness and stuff….
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 16, 2008 1:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
actually he reminds me of my cousin
who looks nothing liek a newborn horse, i think it’s the chaw cause it is the cousin who introduced me to it
I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2
by punchinjudy on Dec 15, 2008 11:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He reminds me of your cousin too!
I just didn’t say anything because I figured no one would get the comparison and I totally forgot he was your cousin.
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 16, 2008 1:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Miles vs Burke
All this WAR and +/- rating stuff is fine, and all…
But the real question is: what’s Burke’s GRIT RATING?
Oh, and does anyone here think Burke can step into a utility infielder position AND be a player/coach at the same time?
Doubtful…
There are 10 types of people in the world. Those who understand binary, and those who don't.
by Mr Clean on Dec 15, 2008 6:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Also
What’s Burke’s FIP?
The boys are all here for ya...we'll back you up...we'll be there...cause, Billy, we don't stink right now. We're the best team in baseball right now...right this minute...because of you. You're the reason. We're not gonna screw that up, we're gonna be awesome for you right now. Just throw.
by Tackle Box on Dec 15, 2008 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
