Winter Meetings Wrap-Up
by DanUpBaby on Dec 12, 2008 9:45 AM EST
578 comments
Have to be brief here—next week is finals week, which means that this weekend is complete-final-papers weekend. Miscellany:
##
Luis Perdomo was taken in the Rule 5 draft yesterday, and if the San Francisco Giants manage to string together enough trips to the DL with shoulder indifference and dead eye to keep him on the 25-man the entire year that will be that for the Anthony Reyes trade.
This is all I want to say about that: in 2007 four right-handed relievers in Perdomo's age group with similar levels of success were selected in the first five picks. Seven more were taken out of the remaining thirteen choices. Fringy right-handed relievers, all, with something to recommend them and some ding that kept them off the 40 man. Nice players to get for free. There were eight more selected this year, and I bet some of them will become big league successes, too.
There were zero players like Anthony Reyes available in the Rule 5 draft, which is a shame because the Cardinals could really use some starting pitching depth. It's funny, but there tend to be a lot more Luis Perdomo types in the Rule 5 than there are Anthony Reyes types.
##
Jeff Gordon boards the Fuentes Train. I like Gordo just fine most of the time, but this quote exemplifies everything that has caused violent argument here over the last two days.
But Fuentes offers a tremendous and immediate opportunity to add talent without subtracting talent. The Cards have the payroll space to take on one more eight-digit salary.
Now I was only a journalism major for a short period of time, and I failed out of the discipline, so I can't exactly speak from a place of booming authority. But during the three semesters I was in the program I was required by the J-school to take an entry-level Economics course, better known as the course after which college students everywhere immediately believe they know all there is to know about economics. And I've got to imagine Jeff Gordon had to take this same one.
Anyway, the first concept we talked about was, of course, opportunity cost, and Gordo here seems to just not bother with it at all even though the two sentences lay out the cost quite nicely. The Cardinals have room for one more eight-digit salary. If you sign Brian Fuentes—and I'm not even going to get into draft picks—you are subtracting one hypothetical $10 million player from the team, unless you think DeWitt is going to just pocket the money unless he gets His Man. This patch of ground has been trodden so many times on here that you can't even see the dead horse underneath it anymore, but I guess it makes just as little sense now as it did yesterday.
Meanwhile, the P-D's status report today will provide no clarity for anybody on either side of this discussion. From the piece it's not clear enough for Fuentes fans to know the Cardinals have done anything but lowball him, but if you're of the opinion that the Cardinals should hand the closer role to an internal candidate Strauss's phrasing—he has the team "in hot pursuit" of a relief pitcher—will offer you no comfort.
##
Finally, there've been a lot of sharp comments over the last few days, which is understandable, given the (relative) stakes surrounding this end of the Cardinals payroll.
But as our quarterly reminder let me just say that the best thing about VEB's community, besides its size and intelligence, is its tone, which is thoughtful and measured not just as far as blogs go but as far as large groups of sports fans go. So let's keep the personal and the needlessly harsh to a minimum. As the membership agreement says, "please follow the Golden Rule of blog posting: Before hitting 'submit' to post your remarks, ask yourself: 'Would I be embarrassed to say this in front of strangers who were physically present in the room with me and could respond to my face?'"
Every time I trot this out my eyes jump to the last line and I somehow read "hit me in my face." And I suppose that also works.
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No to Fuentes
I would like to see the Cards spend the $$$ on Sheets, if for no other reason than to decimate the BrewCrew’s staff. This signing could have a huge upside, and little risk of turning into Mark Mulder 2.0.
As discussed ad nauseum, we already have YP and Motte to close. And we can use the OF depth to trade for more RP later if needed.
Proud sponsor of the Official 2009 StL Cardinal theme song:
by gocards62 on Dec 12, 2008 10:03 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
agree on the "fountain"
but also am curious about what will happen tonight. i read recently that the rays may not tender jason bartlett. if so, signing greene doesn’t look so good. on the other hand, what about signing bartlett, if available, and playing him at second. i realize this would make out lineup a bit less gritty, but he could be our ss next year.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 12, 2008 10:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd love to have Bartlett at 2B
but if we can’t trade Kennedy they won’t let his salary just sit on the bench.
Milt Thompson FTW!
by gossard56 on Dec 12, 2008 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
a problem for sure
but another 3 man rotation with less grit seems like a small price to pay for the long term benefit of having bartlett at short
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 12, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
true..
i guess grin and bare Kennedy for another year then he’s gone and we could still have Bartlett around after that.
Milt Thompson FTW!
by gossard56 on Dec 12, 2008 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Couldn’t we just bear him, rather than baring him? ‘Cause honestly, I’m not all that high on seeing Kennedy au natural, as they say.
It was half my fault, and half the atmosphere.
by the red baron on Dec 12, 2008 12:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
heh
(not a social commentary dealing with the other day’s thread…just made me chuckle without laughing aloud.)
by stlfan on Dec 12, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yea, but
stephen colbert says bears are the number one threat to america. ak’s not that bad, is he/
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 12, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
coincidentally
the bears somehow won last night
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
MI Situation
I really do believe that the Cardinals need to have a backup MI that is a bonafide (sp?) backup shortstop, whether this person is Bartlett or T. Greene, or whatever.
by stlfan on Dec 12, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Green at second, Tyler that is
I am beginning to believe that the Cards are going to seriously look at Tyler Green at second, he probably projects better there and would seem to have a plus bat, for the position, at least in comparison with Kennedy. I look for Kennedy to move in a package to bring in another starter, probably a 3/4 kind of guy though. I also expect that the market for Looper is going to put him available to us in the 5-6 million range come February/March.
by ckeiner on Dec 12, 2008 11:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I also wouldn't be surprised to see Kennedy go
But if he does, I have little doubt that we would eat all but $1 million on his contract.
by mojowo11 on Dec 12, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and then of course
the cards would have greene and greene up the middle. the could have and ad saying they’re “going greene”.
by mdarshan on Dec 12, 2008 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That combo...
…would lead to more outs than any middle infield combo in the history of middle infield combos…I’d be morbidly curious to see how that would work out actually.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 12, 2008 3:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
tyler greene had 19 errors at AA ball this year, and 4 at AAA.
by tom s. on Dec 12, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I meant offensively
Both have well below-average on-base skills.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 12, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
At the very least...
it should compete for most outs by a middle infield combo that has the same last name.
by mattybobo on Dec 12, 2008 3:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
hrabosky would love it
one less name to learn
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 12, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brian Barden at third and Brian Barton in LF too.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
they arent gonna non-tender him
when they refused to even talk trade about him per mlbtr
by FunkeeC on Dec 12, 2008 12:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
At this point we would decimate their staff
But they will have 3 picks in the first round in next year’s draft if we sign him — theirs, ours, and the Yankees’, so they’ll have an opportunity to recover pretty quickly I think.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 12, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Of course
the Yankees and whoever gets Sheets get bona-fide MLB aces, while the Brewers get two extra shots at “opportunity.” Softens the blow, for sure, but not all the way.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Dec 12, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well.....
If you sign Brian Fuentes—and I’m not even going to get into draft picks—you are subtracting one hypothetical $10 million player from the team, unless you think DeWitt is going to just pocket the money unless he gets His Man.
I don’t see alot of $10M a year men out there, that fit our needs. We can argue about Sheets/RJ/Pettite/etc, but other than them (and many of them are questionable), the talent out there either wants more money, or considerably less. If we don’t sign someone like Fuentes for $9-10M/per, I could easily see us adding two players that combine for that much or slightly less, and calling it a day. That, or overpaying for another SP.
I’m not saying we should give Fuentes whatever he wants. I’d be willing to do 2/20, or 3/27, probably. If he won’t accept that, we should move on. I’m still not sure why Hoffman isn’t on the radar.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 12, 2008 10:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
drat picks
i worry about giving fuentes 3 because i don’t think he would be a type-a in 3 years. depending on who is non-tendered today, i’d say sheet at 2 with an option is our wisest expenditure, as long as it is close the purported yankee offer at 13 per.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 12, 2008 10:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A 2 year deal would be great
If you could get Fuentes for 2/20 then I’d be fine with it. There’s less risk of injury and decline with a 2 year deal and hopefully he’ll still be a type A after 2 years. I just think that signing a closer should be less of a priority than getting a starter. If you assume we can trade for a starter, then go ahead and sign Fuentes. However, if we will not be able to trade for a starter, then we need to look at signing a starter instead of a closer.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
RJ
>>I don’t see alot of $10M a year men out there, that fit our needs.<<
Randy Johnson fits our needs perfectly. Lefthanded starter willing to sign a 1 year deal. Fills a huge need. You may say he will cost more than $10 mil. but I doubt much more. Further, he might want to play on the west coast but what team on the west coast that will contend wants him at that price? I think we have a shot for RJ.
by jjray on Dec 12, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Dodgers do
The Angels have also been rumored to be interested, and both of those teams have more to spend with more resources than the Cards do right now.
Oakland is also in the mix on a one year deal, and looks to be trying to contend in the short term with their young pitching coming up the ranks. I think Beane thinks that he has a legit shot in the next couple of years to win that division, so spending on a one year deal for RJ may not be a bad idea. On top of that, chasing 300 wins and 5000 K’s will put asses in the seats for a club that struggles with attendance at times.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 12, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dodgers
The Dodgers A1 priority is resigning Manny. And it will break the bank to do it. I would be they do not make any big signings until they have a contract for Manny and then they will be tapped out on payroll. Yes, the Dodger have more resources in a general sense than the Cards but their larger payroll will be sucked up by Manny. It would be a big reversal if Oakland signs RJ. We should get into this thing.
by jjray on Dec 12, 2008 10:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I get the feeling
that our front office has talked to his representatives and were told that he isn’t interested in coming to St. Louis and that he wants to stay on the West Coast.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
by fourstick on Dec 12, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No one even wants Manny besides the Dodgers
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Giants,too
The Giants train in Zona where RJ lives and play on the West Coast. If they scrape together the money, they could probably have him.
by mojowo11 on Dec 12, 2008 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I have no interest
in signing a 45 (or is it only 44?) year-old power pitcher who may break down or fade out at any moment. His time is past, and the enthusiasm on this board for signing Johnson is dismaying.
by Mike G on Dec 12, 2008 12:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
http://www.statcorner.com/pitcherSP.php?id=116615&team=ARI&year=2008&leag=N_L
He put up his best numbers since 2004 last year with 184IP.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 12:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t feel dismayed, though – I doubt the FO is taking our thoughts into consideration!
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
damn those inconvienent stats getting in the way
by FunkeeC on Dec 12, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
as if
he’s guaranteed not to suck next season
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you are in the wrong place looking for certainty
how is that an argument? as put much more eloquently than i can below, there is no such thing as a signing w/o risk, ESPECIALLY for pitching. just cause i cannot guarantee a great year makes it ok to dismiss out of hand an legit option?
by FunkeeC on Dec 12, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
you're right
still, I just don’t foresee it being a good option
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
its not a good option
only due to the probable lack of interest in RJ coming to the midwest when he will have likely interest by teams closer to home. he sure as hell is a better bet than leaving Pinata in the rotation which im sure you would agree with
by FunkeeC on Dec 12, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
absolutely
but we both know that pinata will be in the rotation
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Too bad he's not actually
filled with candy. It would make the beatings a little more palatable.
by spants on Dec 12, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Johnson
the problem with that, though, is that you say he could break down or fade out at any moment. While that is technically true, it’s also somewhat true of every pitcher in the game, regardless of age, previous health, or anything else, seemingly. Honestly, if you could have made a list of ‘safest bets’ in terms of pitchers at the end of the 2003 season, Mark Mulder might very well have been at the top of that list. Even after 2004, when he was a little iffy at times, the future looked impossibly bright. Mulder was last seen on a mound in May of 2006. An impersonator with what looked like a turkey drumstick in place of his left arm has appeared periodically since, but not Muldoo himself.
Pitchers are terrible bets just as a general rule. All you can do is look at their performance, and the trends, and decide whether they’re worth the gamble or not. The Unit had a fantastic season this past year, older than god or not. I think he’s a good bet to be a solid contributor again this coming season. You may disagree, but I think you’re a little off base in terms of how risky he is compared to others of his species.
It was half my fault, and half the atmosphere.
by the red baron on Dec 12, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
but I’d be willing to bet he won’t do half as well this year. Warren Spahn was even better than Johnson—he even completed most of his games—well into his 40’s—and then one season he suddenly went out and had nothing left. The breakdown was not gradual but sudden. I’d prefer to risk my money—or I should say DeWitt’s—on a younger pitcher. I’d stay away from Jaimie Moyer too.
by Mike G on Dec 12, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes, but . . .
what’s the alternative? the bonus with older folks like RJ or Moyer is that you can get them for one year.
your choices then, are to try to trade for young starters (i encourage this, but it is difficult to get quality).
I don’t disagree with what you say re: the risks of older pitchers, but younger pitchers typically want 3 to 5 years. and spreading out the risk over 5 years for a pitcher of almost any age virtually guarantees a serious injury or major decline. Try to name a five-year pitching contract that hasn’t resulted in the pitcher being seriously injured or ineffective before its end. I won’t say there are none, but there aren’t many.
by tom s. on Dec 12, 2008 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Keeping it simple, what do you predict for RJ’s IP and ERA?
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 12:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
but I’d be willing to bet he won’t do half as well this year
judging by what he said… 92 IP and 7.82 ERA…for some reason I predict more from the Unit…
Life is better when you have a Big Unit!
by nomar34 on Dec 12, 2008 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Johnson is hardly a power pitcher these days
He throws 90-91 now, and FanGraphs only has him at 51.4% fastballs last year.
by mojowo11 on Dec 12, 2008 12:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's assuming...
…that the definition of power pitcher is completely based on pitch speed.
Randy Johnson was the 6th best strike out pitcher in the national league last year with 8.46 K/9 (173 Ks in 184 IP)… I don’t think it really matters how fast he’s throwing as long as he’s still effective… Not sure about everyone else but when I think “Power Pitcher” I think Ks.
by E-Dizzle on Dec 12, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I would say it has a lot to do with using your fastball as a dominant pitch (the key word being "power"). Strikeout pitcher and power pitcher aren’t necessarily the same thing. I’d say he’s the former, but not the latter. 50% fastballs at 91 MPH just isn’t a power pitcher in my book.
by mojowo11 on Dec 12, 2008 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
90.8 average fastball velocity in 2008 according to Fangraphs – it’s the number in parentheses after pitch type.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Averaging is one thing
But a pitcher of Randy Johnsons’ caliber is not throwing full effort the whole game. I can definitely beleive that he tops out 3 mph above his average.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 12, 2008 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Watched a few starts last year
He’s mostly 88-93 and he’d touch a 94 here and there and I think I saw a 95 in there.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 12, 2008 3:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point. TOP speed is probably tracked somewhere using Pitch F/X data.
(http://baseball.bornbybits.com/2008/Randy_Johnson.html doesn’t have it)
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 3:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Scroll on down a bit----yeah it does
Seems touching 94-95 was accurate. Dude is a freak.
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 12, 2008 3:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, it’s on the speed/horizontal graph. Thanks! Using my ever-so-scientific “hold an index card up the monitor” method it looks like he touched 96MPH.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
dude that is science at its finest
the index card used a ruler/straight edge is a time honored tradition
by VolsnCards5 on Dec 12, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great Week
I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the intense discussion this week. And the reminder to check the rude behavior at the door.
Sheets, RJ, Fuentes, whomever…..it’s great to have options, something good to discuss and optimism for 09
I only have one complaint – for ArkansasTravs – thank you (not) for the song that has been playing in my head ever since Wed….."I’ve got an old mule her name is Sal………
Now the rest of you over 40 can sing along…………
by Hinkster on Dec 12, 2008 10:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
If there's a more embarrassing
writer at the PD than Jeff Gordon I don’t know who it would be. His only readable articles are those roundups of funny comments from other sportswriters. His attempts at analysis just make me cringe, as does his constant shilling for whatever move/non-move the Cardinals are making today.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 12, 2008 10:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'm rarely moved
to comment on a sportswriter’s ‘game’, but it’s amazing to me that Gordon continues to be employed in print or radio. He brings very little to the table. And he should definitely stay away from the Winter Meetings each year. Last year it was that awful Rolen trash job. This article is just as mind-numbingly idiotic.
And I would say that to his face :)
by meat on Dec 12, 2008 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i think a guy named "meat"
could probably defend himself from a sports reporter.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 12, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
“What are you doing with those eggs?”
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Sportswriters
Most sportswriters are like a once popular chef who for years served baloney to a satisfied crowd but the crowd (thanks to the internet) is now aware of things like chicken, beef, seafood and real food.
Many sportswriters…..Gordon, Jerry Tipton on the University of KY basketball beat and others are now an embarrasment to their profession………sharp youngsters like Goold only make them look worse
Most of the VEB guys have more knowledge in their fingernail that Gordon does in his career
It will be interesting to see what happens to these guys and the newspaper industry as a whole
by Hinkster on Dec 12, 2008 10:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
as i said yesterday
gordon’s already working for tlr, inc.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 12, 2008 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Having to dumb it down
The one problem with writing for the newspaper is that you have to dumb everything down for your readers. I would say the majority of newspaper readers are not Saber friendly. So you have to dumb down pretty much everything you write for that crowd. We are not the typical newspaper reader so it is hard to judge him by our standards. Maybe he knows more about baseball than we give him credit but his editor makes him dumb it down.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So why doesn't the same editor make Bernie
or Goold dumb it down? Nah, I’m not as willing as you to cut him slack in this case. Gordon has been on autopilot for a long time now and he gets away with it.
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 12, 2008 3:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
so basically.....
we got nothing for Reyes….shame. Watch him have a great year.
Aaron Miles is worth it.
by dangpenguins on Dec 12, 2008 10:16 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
sad, but true
anyone want tlr for their gm?
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 12, 2008 10:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and he will
because you know…he’s actually a really good pitcher(just not a ground ball pitcher)
sometimes laduncan makes me really really mad
by VolsnCards5 on Dec 12, 2008 10:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A good year from Reyes
is bound to happen. What scares me are his projections.
Bill James 3.88 ERA
Marcel 4.45 ERA
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 10:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow.
But I guess we don’t really need another starter any . . . oh. My bad. That’s exactly what we need.
by Ray Lankford on Dec 12, 2008 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Bill James predictions always look overly-optimistic to me.
tRA* paints a much bleaker picture.
We’ll see, I hope. I wish him well (against other teams)!
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They appear to be optimistic
to me as well. The Marcel kind of weights it down a bit. What I’m thinking though, is the tRA* picture any bleaker than the $7.5M Jo-L picture?
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that kinda explains why the cardinals couldn’t get anything more for reyes than perdomo.
by greenback06 on Dec 12, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Reyes might not even make the Indian's this year
He is not guaranteed a spot on the roster and he is out of options.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i'll certainly be rooting for him
i was excited and waiting to see him in our rotation ever since i came across this kid who was striking out everybody and their dog in the low minors! We did such an incrdibly poor job of developing him into a major league pitcher. Shamefull.
Milt Thompson FTW!
by gossard56 on Dec 12, 2008 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No joke
Whenever I think of him now I think of this game
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
But it wouldn’t be a bad idea to keep this game and this one and this one in mind as well.
As Forrest Gump might have put it, Anthony Reyes is like a box of chocolates: you never know what you’re going to get. To expand on Mr. Gump, sometimes you get something very tasty, but other times it’s something brown and gooey and aromatic, but definitely not chocolate.
by StanTheManFan on Dec 12, 2008 10:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
on the biggest stage
he came out blazing, and no one can take that away from him.
by UNCDubya on Dec 12, 2008 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
in that first game you linked
he threw 42 pitches, 32 for strikes…found that interesting.
by UNCDubya on Dec 12, 2008 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That may be part of the problem.
I watched him in Denver a couple of years ago, from a seat close enough that I could about count the hairs in AP’s beard (right on the first base line, have no idea how we got such good seats). He was throwing strikes then … and the Rockies were sitting on them. They were loading up on every swing like a 6-year-old hitting off a tee. I’ve only seen one other performance quite like it, by Zack Greinke when he was in his free-fall stage.
And the analogy works: does A-Rey turn it around the way Greinke did, or remain in free fall?
by StanTheManFan on Dec 12, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know how scientific the methodology is other than correlating visual cues with past success and failure – not a criticism, just haven’t looked into the site in depth – but “Death to the Inverted W” is very down on Reyes’ mechanics.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not particularly scientific at all
But I hate Reyes’ delivery too.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 12, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
duncans strategy
is to throw strikes, fwiw
by UNCDubya on Dec 12, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
when you are being forced to pitch in a way that goes against your skillset
these type of games happen
by VolsnCards5 on Dec 12, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I basically agree with that..
…but all I saw of Reyes’s skill set at the major league level was a fastball with good movement and only so-so command and a plus changeup, which is great if you command your fastball well.
I’ll buy the argument that his command may have been altered by throwing 2 seamers instead of 4 seamers, but that still leaves two pitches. That’s not enough long-term. Hell, even if he had commanded his fastball (2 or 4-seam) well, it’s still really not enough.
I’ll say it again…there is plenty of blame to go around on the Anthony Reyes front.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 12, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Shameful -- I don't get it
He stunk up the joint for the most part. He had more opportunities to succeed than most young players. Everyone wants to believe that Ladunc treated him badly. Those two have a ton of experience evaluating talent,mental makeup, etc. Reyes couldn’t cut it.
They had had enough. Same with Marquis —does anyone wish him back.
Fair to argue they could have gotten a bit more for him but only if they had traded him earlier.
We won’t hear much more from Anthony Reyes
by The Duke on Dec 12, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Only because we'll
have our hands over our ears while yelling “I CAN’T HEAR YOU! LALALALALA!”
Or maybe he’s done for real.
by spants on Dec 12, 2008 6:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We won't hear much from him
Because he’ll be in the AL. I won’t write off the guy who pitched that gem in Game 1 of the 2006 WS. Especially since he is still young, and a new environment which could benefit him.
TLR and DD are a great duo, but they can’t work well with every guy. Sometimes personalities and styles just can’t get on the same page.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 12, 2008 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm really split about Fuentes
but am happy to lean towards the positive side.
If we sign him our bullpen should be rock solid. With Motte, Perez and Franklin pitching the 7th and 8th. It would give us the option to move McClellan to the rotation which would be adding a low cost controlled young pitcher to the rotation. That trickle down from the Fuentes signing in itself gets me excited.
Milt Thompson FTW!
by gossard56 on Dec 12, 2008 10:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
it's all about the money for me
yes, he would be an asset in the pen, especially if he can handle not being the 100% closer. i bail on the idea though if it take more than 8-9M and more than 2 years. he’s 33 now, so the chances of getting our first round pick back drop rapidly when he’s 36-37. if that’s the case, then 3-33 and an almost sure loss of the pick seems just too expensive. my only comfort is that if we were offering 3-33, it would be over already.
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 12, 2008 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You can't expect
to get the first-round pick anyway. The Cardinals never have the balls to offer arbitration to anyone, as proved by the Looper fiasco.
by Mike G on Dec 12, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
allow me to retort
Edgar Renteria and Matt Morris. If you mean in the last two years only on Type B free agents then you point is more credible.
by nmstar on Dec 12, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If we sign Fuentes
I think it makes the decision to not offer Springer arb. even more indefensible. If we had Springer for another year, and we signed Fuentes, then McClellan becomes redundant in the bullpen, as you’d have Springer, Motte, Perez and Franklin from the right side – a pretty salty right side of the pen. K-Mac then becomes your #5 starter / swing-man for when (if) Carp comes back.
by Ray Lankford on Dec 12, 2008 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Springer frees up a starter
That was my thinking. By signing Springer at $4.5 mill we have an overflow of righthanded relievers which makes McClellan available to start. And McClellan is better than any dumpster dive reclamation project for D. Duncan to work on. It would have been a cheap fix to one of our holes.
by jjray on Dec 12, 2008 10:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree in principle
And I do think that KMac to the rotation is a good idea, but there’s a HUGE risk that if he is in the rotation he will burn out mid-season. We need someone in the rotation who isn’t going to either suck (Jo-L, Boggs), flame out (McClellan), or have his arm fly off (Carpenter). Wainwright, Wellemeyer, Lohse, Piniero/Boggs/McClellan/Carpenter is a rotation just itching to fall apart.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 10:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
McClellan will be needed in the rotation sooner or later
They need to find out about McClellan’s durability as a starter. Why not next season? We shall need another starter in 2010 as well when Joel is jettisoned and McClellan is the head of the list. I see no advantage to waiting until 2010 to move McClellan to the rotation versus 2009.
by jjray on Dec 12, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Why does he HAVE to be a SP at any time?
Maybe his arm can handle it, maybe it can’t.
Maybe he’ll make for a good starter, maybe he’ll be pretty average.
I’m not against trying it if he, TLR, and Duncan think that is what is best, I’m just not 100% sold that that is what is best.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 12, 2008 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ya..well i'd take pretty average for league minimum
Milt Thompson FTW!
by gossard56 on Dec 12, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Whether or not he is needed
is debatable, but the first thing I said was, “I do think that KMac to the rotatin is a good idea.” I never said wait until 2010. I just think we need to acquire another starter rather than relying on what we have.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't follow this argument at all.
the question is not whether kmac is needed in the rotation — of course, he’s needed. even if we sign another fa pitcher, we would get far more mileage out of a talented Kmac than pineiro. let pineiro do (very expensive) mop up.
The question is whether kmac CAN start. He’s got the tools, he’s got a year of ML experience, but we won’t know until he goes to ST and tries.
There’s no logical reason to keep a potentially talented cost-controlled starter in the bullpen. If Kmac can start, a capable KMac over even a marginal year of 150 innings as a starter is much better than a star KMac as a reliever over 70 innings.
by tom s. on Dec 12, 2008 12:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That logic doesn't fly.....
It’s like saying we should move Pujols to 2B/3B b/c he can likely field it adequately, and he’d be an even better hitter as far as 2B go, then 1B.
You don’t compare K-Mac as a SP to K-Mac as a reliever. You compare him at each position to who he’d replace.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 12, 2008 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
“You compare him at each position to who he’d replace.”
You made this argument in another thread and it didn’t make sense there either. Our rotation last year was not good. It appears to be brittle and tattered for next year. Despite the blown saves, we have many more options and more talent in the pen. He’s compared to a replacement level baseline as a starter but, for the Cardinals’ pen, he’d be compared to something more like 1 WAR.
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What I am saying.....
makes perfect sense. You can’t just say that he’d be effective as a SP, and since SP’s pitch more innings than relievers, he should start.
This isn’t opinion, this is commen sense. If you are going to measure his effect at both positions, you have to look at who he replaces, and who replaces him.
We aren’t THAT deep at MR either. I know you want to think that Perez and Motte are going to cruise through the year, but what if they don’t? You really want there to be a bullpen with no K-Mac or Springer to fall back on? Our problems with our pen last year for at the end of the games. We need to solve that, but not blow up the rest of the pen that worked. We’ve already probably lost Springer. I’m sorry, but unless we are adding a guy like Fuentes, I really don’t want to remove K-Mac as well. That would essentially be taking the only two positives from last years pen, out of the pen.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 12, 2008 1:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
“You can’t just say that he’d be effective as a SP, and since SP’s pitch more innings than relievers, he should start.”
God thing I never said that then.
And yes, we are that deep at relievers. What you keep glossing over is how thin we are in the rotation. You continue to look backwards instead of forwards by assuming that our troubles last year automatically are going to be our problems next year. Bullpens fluctuate wildly from year to year and ours could turn around with no additions as easily as it could bomb if you pick up Fuentes.
I enjoy that you make no real attempt to defend the fact that the replacement for a MR would be much easier to find than what KMac could do in the rotation.
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good thing God didn't say that either
Too bad spell check doesn’t have a context function.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Dec 12, 2008 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
damn
didn’t even notice that in my proof read
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
i no wear you are coming form
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 12, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's spelled
comming
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
and I did do exactly what you say.
pineiro. he’d replace pineiro. What do you think is better: 150 ip of KMac as a starter and 70 of pineiro as a mop-up/swing man, or 150 ip of pineiro as a starter and 70 ip of Kmac as a reliever?
I’m guessing kmac is better as a starter. Maybe kmac chokes as a starter and we would prefer pineiro as a starter. okay — but that ’s the real comparison to make.
by tom s. on Dec 12, 2008 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It bumps everybody.....
Up a notch in the pen too.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Dec 12, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
well, as azru pointed out, our depth in the bullpen for righties is pretty strong.
perez
motte
kinney
franklin
thompson
boggs
and pineiro, if we put kmac in the rotation.
Not to mention all our AAA prospects, and the relatively simple process of trading for or signing a right-handed reliever in the middle of the year if ALL of the ample options above fail.
Right handed relievers are one step up from fourth outfielders in the “challenging to find” department in baseball. How many blockbuster trades have there been for non-closing right-handed relievers?
Talented starters are like gold.
And, yes, actually, pitching more innings makes you more valuable. I understand that moving someone into the rotation may diminish the bullpen. It’s hard to imagine how the extent to which the bullpen is diminished is not overwhelmed by the improvement to the rotation. Unless the pitcher in question is just not a good starter at all.
by tom s. on Dec 12, 2008 1:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you sign Brian Fuentes—and I’m not even going to get into draft picks—you are subtracting one hypothetical $10 million player from the team
In this way draft picks 16-25 are no longer considered to be worth ten million dollars:
It’s 2.12M pre-inflation per Nate Silver’s own updated formula, not the original 8.95M.
He issued a correction after errors were found in the original methodology.
We are going to get bad results if we continue to use known flawed valuation estimates!
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 10:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
the hypothetical $10 million player is not the draft pick
He is referring to any other player you could buy on the free agent market for $10 million.
by OCCardsFan on Dec 12, 2008 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was about to say the same thing
Read what you quoted again astro, he said he wasn’t even talking about draft picks, he was talking about the ability to sign another 10M+ player due to budgetary restrictions. Gordon said that we only have room for 1 more 10M player, as such Fuentes would fill that slot leaving us with no more room.
To me the draft picks are like the cherry on the top, it is the first thing you see and many people focus on it, but the meat of what makes it a bad deal is hidden below.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 12, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The 10M draft pick is still in use all over the internet, and that includes VEB. Sensitive subject :)
Hadn’t considered that he might be talking about 3/33M or 3/30M eating 11M/10M of our 2009 payroll, though, so excellent point. I direct nothing toward Dan in particular in either case – just the numbers!
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 11:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You discussed this yesterday though
Just as a way to separate topics try to keep the discussion on the worth of a draft pick to the article that uses the “bad” numbers. We don’t want this topic exploding over the same topic. And I thought it was fairly clear what he was talking about since he said “I’m not even going to get into draft picks”.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 12, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough. I have no intention of hijacking discussion.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess you're still going to go w/
that $2 M figure rather than the updated MORP as well? Instead of $10, it’s $7 or $8M and you’re misunderstanding DanUp’s comment today.
by chuckb on Dec 12, 2008 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
All I’m strongly saying is that I’m not going with the uncorrected, demonstratedly flawed version of a figure when a corrected version is available. At a minimum, I think corrections could be issued to articles that used the original formula as their fundamental basis.
2007 MORP (most current) definition: 1200000*(WARP^1.5) + 380000.
Let’s model using a 1.3 WARP player – that MORP formula says they’re worth $2,158,673.
Now look at Aaron Miles’ PECOTA card. Projected 1.3 WARP for 2008. Declared MORP? 1.4M.
It would seem that they’re using a different formula. Perhaps the 2008 version?
Now Matt Stairs’ PECOTA card. Projected 1.3 WARP for 2009. Declared MORP? 2.475M.
Now I’m really confused. The MORP definition tells us that Aaron Miles should be worth 2.2M, but he comes up WAY under that at 1.4M. The MORP definition tells us that it’s calculated strictly using WARP, but another player with an identical WARP is worth 2.475M a year later. 11.275% one-year inflation? The definition says it should be 8%. Do you still want to use it?
It looks like there are a lot of unpublished changes. It looks like Silver’s first article is still the primary basis on which draft picks are evaluated, at least from what I’ve run into recently – the 2008 THT Sabathia eval, for example. Are you seeing MORP applied to draft picks elsewhere?
My instinct is to instead look at the average declared WARP value and compare it with a similar player – we don’t need to project any dollar numbers or even worry about replacement definitions because the WARP formula is the same for everyone. For a 16-25 pick it’s an average of 1.64 WARP, or Gary Matthews Jr’s 2008 performance. -4.8 runs below replacement according to Inaz.
“average” can come about in a lot of ways, though: Matthews + Matthews + Matthews, or Pujols + turd + turd. That’s the problem with averages, and the reason that I think we should trust our FO to do specific player evaluation based on known pick slot and the available talent/signing requirements of the draft pool – more on this in the response I posted to MRCARD. Would I give up 2008 Gary Matthews Jr.? All day. Now, would I give up a possible Pujols?
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 2:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
To some extent, this proposed move, this discussion, and probably this season
are a referendum on the team’s ability to assess its medical situation accurately. I am struck by how different man-love for Fuentes looks if Chris Carpenter is healthy and effective than if he isn’t. With a healthy Carp, I think a reasonable case can be made that a bullpen capable of holding a lead is the biggest thing needed going into 2009. If Carp can’t go or won’t be effective … no way.
I want to withhold judgment on this until it’s clear whether Mo and company have been sold a bill of goods on Carp’s status. Of course, by then it’ll be too late.
by StanTheManFan on Dec 12, 2008 10:50 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Beating a dead horse (over and over again)
Is there any other rumor out there for a good starting pitcher? I’ve heard the “I heart Randy Johnson” (will never come to St. Louis because he’s repeatedly said he wants to be on the west coast and he has enough interest there to get it). Everyone has a mancrushes on Sheets (for good reason) but it is a daydream that he will sign for 2 years (you don’t think 10 teams wouldn’t sign him right NOW for 2 years if that were the case?). I’d put my money on Sheets at 4 (though I could see him getting 3) even with the scary shoulder issue.
Then there is the pipe dream that we can trade Ankiel for Sonnanstine (I REALLY heart Sonnanstine, but it would take A LOT to get him, certainly more than 1 year of Ankiel or trading Skip Schumacher + minor league fringe). Plus Tampa Bay may not trade another starter after trading Edwin. The Yankees may trade, but they know they can get more than Ankiel for Kennedy/ Stewart (though that might be an option if we throw in someone like Anderson). There are a lot of teams out there with extra outfielders, so it’s not like the Cardinals are the only ones they will be talking to. Oliver Perez is now asking for the moon (and may get it), so who is the target?
My question is this. If Mo is really offering less than 10 (say 3 years 27 million) and the cost of a draft pick is 2.12 million (per astrostl numbers), what would be the better deal? I’m not saying there isn’t one out there, but most of the discussion I’ve seen has been unrealistic at best utilizing rumors that severely undervalue players worth (see Sheets, Ben).
Would Wolf be better? (I haven’t heard any rumors on what he is asking or where he wants to live (remember, he spurned a better offer from the Cardinals to take a discount to be on the west coast a couple of years ago), but I would imagine it would be similar to Fuentes). What starting pitcher is out there in the 10-12 million dollar range per year (and only asking for 2-3 years) that would be more than 2-3 wins (Fuentes replacement numbers; 2-3 if you believe Russ Springer would have repeated last season’s fantastic numbers at age 40, 3-3.5 if you don’t and he’s replacing the back of the bullpen).
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 11:22 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
P.S.
I don’t mean to be antagonistic, I’d just like to spur some different discussion than: “The Cardinals are stupid for offering Fuentes 3 years 33 million dollars when they can have sheets for 2/30 million.” (Which again, I think is unrealistic on both counts).
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 11:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The Cardinals will not offer Fuentes 3 years/$33M
This is just some number his agent leaked out. I guarantee if the Cardinals sign Fuentes it would be for less than $10M a year. More like 3 year/$27M with a large 4th year options with a buyout.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
point hammered home
No offense, but that was exactly my point. I’m not sure if you caught the sarcasm or read what I wrote above.
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It was directed at you but the whole community
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yay!
community! j/k
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think it gets more complicated than just 2.12M…
For next year’s draft we should know our exact slot as well as the predicted player pool. If we:
- sort in descending order of objective quality and
- attempt to factor in signing requirements
We should be able to determine with greater precision (than a 16-25 pick range average across six years) what it is we might be conceding in the draft. Assuming people draft the best first we should be able to come up with a small group of specific players, and attempt to assess THEIR average value.
I think this is an example of front offices making SABR guys look like potentially out-of-touch math nerds, because they’re doing real scouting on real players while we’re projecting based on – in this instance – data from 1989-1994 with “quick and dirty” service time assumptions.
If Mo gives up a draft pick, we might think he gave up 2.12M. Or whatever valuation you prefer :) I think he knows WAY better than that exactly what it is he’s giving up, though. Maybe it’s a big deal and he thinks there’s an upside, or maybe it’s not much at all. To us it might just be 2.12M, but I think that’s a mistake.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
not possible
there’s a whole season of HS/college baseball to be played between now and June 1. There’s no way front offices know the top 20 picks with any degree of certaintly right now.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 12, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It can be top 50, not just top 20, and done with a general lean toward “does this pool suck or not?” Whatever the level of specificity, the general aim is just to have as much as one reasonably can. I sure as hell hope that our own FO is doing better than a 6-year window starting 19 years ago that uses a proprietary BP stat (plus assumptions) as its reference point.
If we’re assuming an exact average dollar return based on WARP, we can also just look at the exact average WARP return and comp with a similar player. If we do that, it doesn’t seem like we’d ever care about a 16-25 pick because 1.64 WARP turns into -4.8 runs using a respected metric. Declining in the first round doesn’t sound right, of course – and I think it comes down to scouting – but it does start to make sense why some GMs forfeit late round picks.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 3:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If we are going to sign a mid-level FA starter
we may as well have offered Looper arbitration. I think that a starter will more likely come in a trade.
About Ankiel for Kennedy, I really don’t think that the Yankees would expect Anderson and Ankiel. Kennedy isn’t THAT good. Maybe Ankiel plus a mid level prospect but Anderson is 2 years younger than Kennedy (Anderson is 21, almost 22) and already has 235 AAA ABs. Anderson is legit and we need to value him as a club would who needs a catcher.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
the law firm of Anderson and Looper LLC
I too believe we should have offered Looper arbitration, but only if we didn’t think he would accept. I believe there will be quite a few "bargain basement " free agent starting pitchers at around Loshe’s cost (maybe even Looper).
Do you really believe that Anderson’s worth is greater than Kennedy’s (or Hughes for that matter)? I don’t think a lot of people would share that view even after Kennedy’s disaster of a season last year. Potential top of the rotation starters are hard to find no matter what their ages. I like Anderson, I really do, but he’s not one of the top 100 prospects in baseball and shouldn’t be treated as untouchable (especially when blocked)
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say
Anderson>Kennedy. I said Anderson+Ankiel>Kennedy. He should easily be a top 100 prospect after spending another year in AAA. I just pointed out their age differences because people always talk about Kennedy’s age and upside and Anderson is even younger. There’s no sense in throwing him away as if he is a mid-level prospect when he will be worth much more than what you are valuing him for.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 12:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Anderson/ Kennedy/ Ankiel
I could very well be wrong that Anderson + Ankiel = Kennedy in the valuation system, but it would certainly get more consideration than Ankiel for Kennedy or Kennedy for Anderson (from the Yankees). Maybe another player would have to be thrown in (with Kennedy) to make it work (or maybe Anderson + Ankiel really does = Kennedy). If anyone has a statistical valuation method to see if this would be even (or if I’m off), I’d like to hear it. Either way, Ankiel + Anderson for Kennedy would not be “throwing away” Anderson. Kennedy could definitly be that good.
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 2:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
An All-Star type OF
in Ankiel plus 6 years of a high upside catcher who will likely be a major league starter seems steep for a pitcher who has tons of potential but came off a bad year. Anderson will be worth more after next season so treating him as a mid level prospect this year is a misuse of resources.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Point...
Again, that is my point. I don’t believe Anderson is a midlevel prospect. I believe it will take a top 100-125 prospect (which is roughly where Anderson is right now) and a starting outfielder with upside to get a possible number 1 starter coming off dominant minor league numbers (maybe I’m wrong, and I’d love to see stats to back that up). If Kennedy HAD NOT had a bad season in the majors last year we wouldn’t even be close with Ankiel/Anderson. From what I’ve heard he’s looked good in the fall leagues as well.
P.S. Ankiel is NOT an All-Star type OF. This is what I mean about Cardinal fans overvalueing their own players. I’m a Cards fan but I don’t value Anderson or Ankiel quite as highly as you.
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
kennedy is a #1 potential player?
I’m not that up-to-speed on the Yankees’ farm system, but I thought his upside was considered somewhere around league-average? Has this changed, or am i confusing him with someone else?
I remember that the hughes kid was really being hyped up as an “future ace” type.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 12, 2008 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
See above
He’s still roughly the number 30 prospect in all of baseball, and he’s dominated every year in the minors. (see above for my post on more info)
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
above = below
in this topsy turvy world we live in
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kennedy isn't a #1 starter
if that’s the question. Kennedy is PJ Walters with a better fastball.
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow...
Their triple A numbers and prospect status would beg to differ with that statment. Kennedy vs. Walters. Why do you believe this to be true (or am I misreading you and you are saying that Walters would be a great prospect if he had a dominant fastball).
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know Kennedy well but...
Walters is a control pitcher, he can pin point location very well but he has a slow fast ball, if you speed that up then maybe he could be considered a much better prospect
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 12, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Walters has significant movement on his pitches as well
His control is good but some of his pitches are like WTF when watching them. I’m just not sure how well that plays at the majors.
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kennedy doesn't have a dominant fastball.
And neither would be a dominant starter.
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Now look what you've done.
I started a sentence with a conjunction.
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 4:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Starting sentences with conjunctions is good writing.
Only bad English teachers proscribe using conjunctions to begin sentences. Look at the writing of H.L. Mencken – some 10% of his sentences begin with coordinating conjunctions. Or read the NY Times – again, 10% of the sentences begin with conjunctions.
by Willie McGee's Twin on Dec 12, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
HL Mencken was not a top five writer.
I mean, look at his PECOTA projections for this year. Only limited movement on his adverbs. His “Words in Play” index was dropped from 2.68/pgh in 2005 to 6.87 in 2008!
He was not a five-tool writer: his satire and allegory usage never ranked with other writers. He had five tools going for him at best, if you count a .248 aphorism average as qualifying. He’s prone to injury, given a long history of writer’s cramp. Plus, if you look at his last three book contracts, he’s way overpaid relative to comparable writers.
by tom s. on Dec 12, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Stats
What stats would lead you to believe that Kennedy would not be a dominant starter. Every minor league periphrial that I see differs from this (though I don’t know the scouting report, so you very well could know something I don’t).
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kennedy has plus command
so he can screw up a lot of minor league guys who can’t track balls as well. He’s not a bad prospect, don’t get me wrong, but he doesn’t project (from a scouting standpoint) to be a future ace. He’s a #3 type pitcher with flashes of being better but his pure stuff (velocity, movement) are merely average or above average. An unlikely scenario where you could call him an ace could be a Buerhle type career but there just aren’t that many pitchers who can dominate with movement and command alone.
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you
That’s a good scouting report. Now, what do you think he’s worth? A number 3 has quite a bit of value. What would that value be to you?
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd trade Ankiel + prospect
for Kennedy. I think that’s what the proposition above was about. . .
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not going to get into
how much Kennedy is worth since it has been covered in detail below, but as for Anderson and Ankiel…
Just because Anderson is not currently ranked highly in the top prospect lists does not mean he is not a great prospect. At age 20 in AA he did this: .298/.352/.388/. Last year, at age 21, his combined AA/AAA OPS was .796. For comparison, Joe Mauer’s career minor league OPS is .830. I’m not trying to say he’s Joe Mauer, because he’s not, but give him a year in AAA and he will be worth much more than he is now.
Rick Ankiel isn’t an All Star caliber player? Look at the some 2008 NL All Star OF numbers, they say otherwise.
Corey Hart .268/.300/.459/.759 20HR
Nate McClouth .276/.356/.497/.853 26HR
Kosuke Fukudome .257/.359/.379/.738 10HR
Alfonso Soriano .280/.344/.532/.876 29HR (109 games)
Matt Holliday .321/.409/.538/.947 25HR
Ryan Ludwick .299/.375/.591/.966 37HR
Rick Ankiel .264/.337/.506/.843 25HR (120 games)
He is tied for 4th in the oh-so-important home run category despite playing only 120 games. He also ranks 5th in OPS. All the while he battled injury this season. I really don’t see how you can say he’s not an All-Star caliber OF. He could easily be an All Star next year.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 5:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmph. Hart and Fukudome weren't All-Star-caliber OFs either.
Those who make the squad are not necessarily those who should.
by StanTheManFan on Dec 12, 2008 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But
I think it is unreasonable to say that if Ankiel stays healthy next season then replicates and improves his numbers over the course of 150+ games that there is an argument against him having legitimate All-Star potential
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 12, 2008 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope your right....
but he’s not there yet. There are a lot of players that have done what Ankiel has done in 120 games. If you make a list of the top OF’s in the game, I doubt if many gms would say Ankiel. Granted, his potential is great, and I don’t want to trade him, I’m just trying to gauge his value. (which is below all-star caliber right now). You have to concede this point. He has potential to be an all-star but he’s not there yet.
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think I have to concede anything
I originally said “An All Star type OF.” Based on those statistics, he is most certainly that. Whether or not he will ever make an All Star team is beside the point. It’s actually a pretty vague statement that I made but he is definitely “All Star type.” You’re saying he’s not worth as much as an All Star, but I’d say he’s going to be better than Kosuke, Hart, and McClouth in any given year. He’s not an All Star (yet), but he’s of a similar caliber.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 11:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More on Kennedy
By the way: Kennedy was the 21st pick in the 2006 draft and last year (November 21st, 2007) was named the 26th best prospect by MLB (official website) and this year (2008) the 30th. Let’s put it this way, Rasmus was a top 7 prospect last year (top 10 this year) and had a bad year too, how fast would you turn down a trade with him for Anderson/Ankiel? Now I realize Rasmus has (and had more value) than Kennedy, but we’re talking the difference between the number 10 and 30th best prospect in the majors for 2007. Is it that far off to assume Ankiel/ Anderson would at least be a fair offer?
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I feel this is the trade we need to make above all others
If we traded Ankiel for Kennedy it would solve our starting pitching problem for a few more years with a cheap good pitcher. Who the Cardinals had previous interest in since we drafted him out of HS but he went to college instead.
2nd of all we get to block the Brewers from dumping $10 million dollars. This would be HUGE for us especially in trying to sign Fuentes. Brewers probably can’t sign Fuentes without dumping Cameron. So by blocking that trade we could potentially save millions from not having to compete with the Brewers for Fuentes. Even if we don’t sign Fuentes we are blocking the Brewers from making further moves.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ankiel plus
It would take Ankiel plus something significant and not Ankiel for Kennedy, but I’m on board with this.
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hate to even say this
But we should include some high ceiling relief pitcher like Reifer
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Isn’t “dumping Cameron” strong phrasing? +25.5 runs in 2008.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They want to
dump his salary, not his skills.
by spants on Dec 12, 2008 6:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They paid him 5M in 2008 and got a great return on investment. The 10M for 2009 was a club option and they exercised it, so it’s not a contract they were trying to escape. He wouldn’t seem hard to trade though, especially with his popular defensive reputation.
UZR is showing him at +9.7 runs in CF and Inaz (that +25.5 number I quoted above) only has 0.6 for fielding. Interesting.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 10:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he requested a trade.
I didn’t know the team exercised his option. Maybe the Brewers are just dumb-asses?
by spants on Dec 13, 2008 4:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
nah
the option was for well below market value. It was an easy decision; by exercising the option, they own the rights to him for next year, and can trade him for prospects, or get more output from him than they are paying him for. If they don’t exercise it and offer arb, and he accepts, he’ll get more than $10M, and if he doesn’t accept, he’s just a type B so he won’t get them much.
they can't play baseball, they don't wear sweaters, they're not good dancers, they don't play drums
by SleepyCA on Dec 13, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Where is this #30 business coming from
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
his link was a 2008 ranking
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/8331-mlb-top-50-prospects-for-2008/page/2
in Feb 2008 he was ranked 30th
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 12, 2008 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No Offense
But that isn’t exactly the best source. That was just written by some normal guy not even a baseball writer
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I didnt use it
I was just showing where the 30th ranking came from, MRCARD used that link so I was just relinking it.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 12, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No offense taken
I’m just trying to gauge his value. It would be nice if you came up with something to refute my point instead of just saying “it was a list written by a normal guy” though. As you can see from above, I don’t believe Ankiel alone will get Kennedy. His minor league numbers are quiet phenomenal, though I concede he was terrible in the majors last year.
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here is something from the NY Yankees minor league pitching coordinator
PinstripesPlus: Ian Kennedy struggled in the big leagues this year but was quite dominant at Triple-A. What does he need to do to have the same type of success at the big league level and is he a case where he simply needs to take his lumps at the major league level to make that next step in his development? Would he benefit from more time in the minor leagues?
Contreras: Personally I feel at this date he may benefit from more time in the minor leagues. He’s a four-pitch pitcher. He’s got real good command of his fastball, he’s got a tremendous changeup, he now has a slider that he has confidence in, but the curveball is not there on a consistent basis yet.
He’s going to Puerto Rico to pitch this winter to work on his pitches and since he didn’t end up with as many innings as we would have liked, we want to get him into that higher amount of innings so if he does make the club out of Spring Training we can pitch him for 175-200 innings.
I believe he’s got what it takes to succeed in the big leagues but some guys in most organizations will be allowed to go through some bad times in the big leagues, but we are there to win. Throughout big league baseball you’ll see guys who went through some bad times and some bad records, and they stayed there pitching to take their lumps.
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
dominates AAA
but struggles in MLB…sounds like Reyes…good command on FB and a tremendous changeup…sounds like Reyes….why don’t they just trade back for Perdimo(or however it’s spelled)?
by STLRegalia on Dec 12, 2008 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I am telling you he is there Reyes
I went around 10 Yankee’s blog talking about a potential Kennedy for Ankiel trade. They were all ecstatic about it and very down on Kennedy. Most of them thought the Yankee’s would have to chip in another prospect to get Ankiel.
This deal just makes too much sense for us not to try to hammer out
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
His numbers are better than Reyes
His numbers are better than Reyes, but the point is taken. I could be the one not valueing Ankiel and his 1 year before free agency high enough. (P.S. I actually like Ankiel) Now Hughes on the other hand would be REALLY nice…
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't looked at the numbers, but
wasn’t Reyes extremely dominant at AAA? And Kennedy’s AAA numbers are better?
by spants on Dec 12, 2008 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
and remember, Reyes was never ranked as highly as Kennedy. I do see similarities though with some of the scouting reports.
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 10:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kennedy's fastball was nothing close to Reyes
Reyes was ranked as high as 47 in 2005 just after a quick search of BA.
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 11:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No clue
He was considered a marginal prospect in 2007. Scout ranked him as the 41st best starting pitching prospect in baseball last year while Hughes was ranked #1
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
#41 is a marginal prospect?
So the Walrus at #40 is marginal as well?
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
41st out of Starting Pitchers not all Players
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you...
That makes more sense. He really fell that far from 2007 (MLB official website ranking of 27) to the 41st best starter in 2008? That’s quite a drop from someone that dominanted the minors in every year (including triple A 2008)
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No the 41st was from 2007
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you for the source...
It looks like there is a lot of difference of opinion on him. See below for Azruavater’s list.
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kennedy
I guess I could have found a better list, do you have a better list? (no sarcasm intended, I’d like to see a better list that you feel is more reputable). Number 1 may be a little harsh, but would you agree that he projects as a 2-4? What would you feel is a good trade for him? Would you feel Ankiel + a prospect would do it or is Ankiel enough?
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Better options
John Sickels Minor League ball (although it seems sickels likes him more than I do)
Keith Law
Kevin Goldstein @ BP
Baseball America
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's 45 overall right?
Flimtotheflam had him as the 41st best ‘pitcher’ but I see Sickels had him at number 10 overall. There are a lot of reputable people that differ on his value. Couldn’t get behind the wall of some of the others.
Even if he’s 45, do you think he’s worth Ankiel plus Anderson? What about Ankiel plus somebody else? If so, who?
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd try and hold onto Anderson
I’d push someone like Jon Jay or maybe Tyler Herron. I might swap Anderson but I’d have to think about it for a while.
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 6:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
on Kennedy. He showed little when he pitched for the Yankees last year and is not high on their depth chart now and will be even lower when they add one or more big-ticket pitchers, as promised.
by Mike G on Dec 12, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Regardless of where he's ranked
he’s blocked, and I could see that making him a bit cheaper to acquire at least. If they require Burnett and keep Joba in the rotation – then there are quite a few guys ahead of him in that rotation Sabathia, Burnett, Joba, Wang, Hughes, etc.
by Toddius on Dec 12, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's blocked but...
He still has value to a LOT of teams. A cost controlled possible number 3 would look good to about 28 other teams (the Red Sox and Yankees will never make another trade again).
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
P.P.S.
I meant Ian “Kennedy” and not Stewart. I got my prospect names mixed up with Ian Stewart (Col). In my defense, I think there should be only 1 prospect named Ian for any 2-3 year period. (No offense to any Ian’s out there).
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It seems like Derek Lowe’s price might be headed down, to add another name.
The Yankees are the only team I hear about in hot pursuit, but they’re also going after Burnett.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 11:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
And there's a message there.
Other prices will fall too, if the GMs are patient. The New York teams can’t sign ’em all.
by StanTheManFan on Dec 12, 2008 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Boston
Uh, Boston/ L.A. is interested too. Lowe’s price may fall, but it won’t fall to our range (fingers crossed hoping I’m wrong).
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve basically given up on trusting MLBTR, Rotoworld, and all that stuff. I just soak up the news and treat it like popcorn. That being said, Lowe is still a good pitcher and still unsigned, so hey!
The most recent post on him at MLBTR had the Mets’ GM saying his price might drop – FWIW.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my instinct after the refusal to offer arb to looper
and the failure to do any deals at the meetings is that Mo thinks the market is going to cool — a lot — so I actually suspect that Mo is going to wait the market out for a (spring 2008) Lohse-like signing. Possibly a couple. it will be hard to wait.
this is not insane. some of our big competitors are going to blow big money on the Burnett, Tex, Lowe contracts out there. at some point after the new year, the pettittes of the market are going to see less attention and reduce their demands.
by tom s. on Dec 12, 2008 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd trade Ankiel AND Skippy
to get Sonnanstine
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
I’d actually trade quite a bit to get Sonnanstine. Nobody in the minors would be off limits (aside from Rasmus and the Walrus… who we can’t trade anyway) and our glut in outfield would definitely have at least 1 less player.
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's too late on Sonnastine
once they traded Jackson, they’re not going to trade for another LH hitting OF. I don’t know that we could’ve gotten him, but we’re not going to now.
by chuckb on Dec 12, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How about....
How does a pitcher that had a 2.18ERA in 07 and 2.32 last year, with 0.909 and 1.132 WHIP and a 2yr k rate of 8.5/9, 1BB/3K ratio and threw around 60 IP each year?
Doesn’t sound half bad, and the fact that that pitcher has 0 saves those years doesn’t bother me.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
by StLHugo on Dec 12, 2008 11:51 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Birthdate: 11/07/1968
That won’t go on forever unless he went on the journey with Jamie Moyer to find the fountain of youth. It certainly isn’t worth 4-5 million (with raise).
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
11/07/1868
Being dense and lazy—but fast searching baseball reference—I looked up the birthday, where I stumbled onto a St. Louis player born exactly 100 years before….
http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/freemju01.shtml
The only pitcher in the baseball-reference data base named Julie.
by ncgostl on Dec 12, 2008 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If we're kicking tires...
and it seems apparent that the team is resolved to finding a “closer” from outside the organization, why don’t we explore the studio space with takashi saito who appears likely to be non-tendered.
by trip mcneely2 on Dec 12, 2008 12:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I'd like to see us look into Saito also
He’s old and won’t require a long contract. Upside is dominant back-end bullpen force. Hard to complain about that.
by mojowo11 on Dec 12, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Something to consider from fourstick:
“I was big on Saito, Then I found out that he had a stem cell treatment for his elbow ligament instead of opting for Tommy John. I think this makes him a giant injury risk in the short term, and he wasn’t effective at all when he came off of the 60 day DL in September.”
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
a-ha
not the glorious new age 80’s set, but rather a response indicating enlightenment.
by trip mcneely2 on Dec 12, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope
that we’re at least trying to sign Sheets
when do you think they’ll sign somebody?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 1:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
500000 internet dollars says not until spring training
How depressing is it being you? Is it closer to being a lifelong cubs fan or being born without lips? - Janitor
by themanthemyth on Dec 12, 2008 1:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it will be a hillarious offseason then
around here… it’s both aggravating and entertaining
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Only if the crazy rumors keep flying.
If they die down, so will the madness.
by spants on Dec 12, 2008 6:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope it won't be too long
I want some Sheets for Christmas ;)
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You guys are completely delusional if you think the front office is entertaining the idea of Sheets at all
They arent going to pay 15 million a year for someone with a checkered injury history, short term deal or no…Not with Carp already a question mark…
by moser34 on Dec 12, 2008 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
but two question marks almost equal a period, right? oh wait, one question mark minus a curly Q equals a period, I’m a little bit off today
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 5:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep I'm delusional
While we’re on the subject how about we make a new rule for this site:
All commenters are only allowed to discuss potential deals that WILL in fact get done. If you bring up an idea that you’d like to see happen and it doesn’t happen, you have to move to Peru.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Estoy de acuerdo
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 12, 2008 5:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
So
Are you sayin’ I’m delusional?
No me gusta hablar español. No me gusta la clase de español…
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 5:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
La parte sobre...
…having to move to Peru if your potential deal doesn’t, in fact, happen. I’m in agreement of that, but probably only because I can speak Spanish.
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 12, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I used to work with a dude from Peru
he was really nice, but almost neanderthal-like in his adherence to Christian fundamentalism.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 5:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 8:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, it's okay...
This Peruvian guy is clearly a fan of this guy and admires the fundamentals of his football playing. Therefore, he dogmatically practiced the same football fundamentals. That’s what you meant, right Cards Fan in Chitown?
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Dec 12, 2008 11:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yep
I wasn’t really paying attention when I wrote that, my apologies
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 13, 2008 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
non tender at midnight
might be an interesting weekend
also, i must say if i were in mo’s shoes, i would be waiting for midnight before signing any free agents. non-tender won’t affect the top players (e.g. cc), but everyone else will be affected. my guess is he is not the only one waiting and that fuentes will not get 3-33
"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension
by sportsman on Dec 12, 2008 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
"Non-tender at Midnight" would be a great first title for a sports/mystery series.
A dashing assistant general manager solves baseball related murders.
“Arbitration, She Wrote”
by tom s. on Dec 12, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Second in the series:
“Designated for Assignment: Murder”
by MdRedbirdFreak on Dec 12, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I definitely read that "Mulder"
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 12, 2008 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wait
shouldn’t it be titled “Mulder, she wrote: a tale of intrigue and injuries”?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 12, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Emphasis problems
“Mulder, she wrote: a tale of intrigue and injuries”
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Dec 12, 2008 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Here’s a possible non-tender list I ran into yesterday.
by astrostl on Dec 12, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
definitely one we should pursue if it happens...
Brandon Backe as swingman…
what?
by phesto on Dec 12, 2008 2:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
he could be
the first fifth outfielder/twelfth pitcher combo in MLB history.
by DanUpBaby on Dec 12, 2008 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
5th OF/12th pitcher/Pujols punching bag
That would be a great combo, eh?
by mojowo11 on Dec 12, 2008 4:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
as far as making history
I was thinking more along the lines of seeing his battery mate charge the mound as Pujols makes a flank attack.
In the game where Backe threw at Molina’s head, I think Yadi tried to pick him off first earlier in the game and Albert made a slap tag on his face. lol
by phesto on Dec 12, 2008 6:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He is so bad
He is so bad I would rather have Jason Marquis
Stat Whore
by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 12, 2008 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
as i said in the last hotstove thread
hire him as Albert’s bitch.
Dress him in green and he can look like The Great Gazoo while albert is in the ondeck circle.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Dec 12, 2008 9:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd throw a minor league deal or 500K
at Daniel Cabrera, Chad Gaudin, and Chris Burke at 2b.
by stlfan on Dec 12, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera seems like someone who would be the ideal transition to the bullpen
High walks, high Ks = good candidate
by azruavatar on Dec 12, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
almost time to start drinking in the office!
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 1:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
just dont light your hair on fire
apparently you cant take someone to rehab against their will
by FunkeeC on Dec 12, 2008 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah.....
Love me a Morroccan-themed Christmas!
Patiently awaiting the day Colby Rasmus does this: .275/.381/.551/.932, 29HR, in St. Louis...
by RunninRedbird on Dec 12, 2008 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Morroccan
architecture and interior architecure is awesome
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
is that a Michael Jackson reference?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking Richard Pryor
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 12, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The office...
that was a reference to last nights episode of the office I believe.
"Live like you are going to die tomorrow. Learn like you are going to live forever." John Wooden
by MRCARD on Dec 12, 2008 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh
I don’t watch that show… I kinda thought that’s what it might be though
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
ah
the work holiday party was a success, even though it was limited to the office this year
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You haven't started yet?
What’s the hold up. I’ve already had four Franklins and two Jager Bombs.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Dec 12, 2008 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
good work
I salute you
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 12, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
We need someone on our team named Jaeger, or something similar. Any ideas of who this could be?
Only name I can come up with is Jagr, that hockey player.
by mojowo11 on Dec 12, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In the NFL
There was a kicker named Jeff Jaeger. I always pronounced it Yeff Yaeger even is he didn’t.
For baseball the best I could find were these guys and I don’t want them anywhere near our team. I mean come on Barry Zito, that’s the guy plugging them……….seriously Barry freak’n Zito. Wow.
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Dec 12, 2008 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no fuentes
i would rather save the 10 mil to save more room to resign Albert.
by J.Wu on Dec 12, 2008 1:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Except
payroll doesn’t generally carry over year to year. We’re going to spend that $10M this year on something. Although, I do agree Fuentes isn’t a good buy.
The Godfather himself has decided to grace us with his presence. This is his damn house. He sleeps 20 feet away.
by thegodfather on Dec 12, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
it does carry over if we don’t overpay fuentes. the less we commit this year, the more space we can work on Pujols’ new contract in the future. I think it will take more than 20 mils a year to resign Albert and hopefully he will give us some discount.
by J.Wu on Dec 12, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, it doesn't
If he signs for 3/30, then he will cost us ~$10M a year. The $10M he would cost this year would not in any way affect what money we will