…and damn it I’m going to say it again. If Tony La Russa doesn’t like the players he’s given, he should quit. Chris Perez or Jason Motte can be exceedingly good relief pitchers NOW. Mozeliak needs to have the courage to NOT sign a new guy, tell TLR that Franklin is a swingman/long guy, and tell him that he needs to either use Perez or Motte. If La Russa doesn’t like that, then tough shit. Mozeliak is the one who is more likely to be here longterm, not the TLR and Duncan duo. He’s the one who needs to be making the best decisions for the team NOW and in the FUTURE, not just NOW. The guards need to run the asylum, not the inmates.

I also would like to point out that if the Cardinals have a staff with three six inning at most guys (Pinata, Wellemeyer, and Carp) then it won’t matter who the closer is, because the entire bullpen will be pitched into the ground. I mean for Pete’s sake…sign Randy Johnson, who will go 6-7 as long as he’s healthy (which I would imagine would be a good chunk of the season) or take a longer risk on Sheets, or hell even Derek Lowe. Another good, durable starter would help the bullpen as much if not more than a good “closer.”

…while grading and perusing the internet simultaneously, I discovered this little nugget. Interesting…you have a set-up guy who doesn’t want to set-up and a closer who doesn’t want to set-up going in different directions. Putz is a really good pitcher with some serious health concerns…however if he’s healthy, I think he’s better than K-Rod by quite a bit. I wonder if he and his agent will pressure the Mets to sling him off for someone else so he can close…hmmm…

Also, I’d be terribly interested to see some team start Aaron Heilman. That would be an utter catastrophe. A one and a half pitch guy with a lethal changeup and questionable fastball command, coupled with an unorthodox delivery…Sound familiar, anyone?

and other big name pitchers are drinking and eating with other GMs, ours and our manager are focusing their efforts on overpaying for a closer while we have two fireballers waiting in the wings.

Strange times.

Sign both Sheets and Fuentes. I mean, exactly when does that stadium we’ve subsidized pay off in terms of payroll like DeWitt and co promised?

Anyway, chuck, we’re tilting at windmills on Sheets. The Cards seem ideologically committed to dumpster diving on SP year-in and year-out. Jon Garland, here we come. D.GOOCH

this is just a bad move for all the reasons chuck pointed out. i would much much rather pony up an extra 5-6 mil a year for sheets. having that much money tied up in a closer is bad enough, losing the draft pick is just insult to injury.

i would much rather we have a chance to have another wallace in the system instead of an overpaid closer and another shane robinson.

So let me get this straight. The Mets get K-Rod for the same years and 2+ million more annually and also get Putz for a pile of poo and we are going to sign Fuentes for 30 million? His lefthandedness only makes sense as a specialist or 7th/8th inning guy in which case why in the hell would we pay him 30 million?!?!? On top of that we could have Sheets if we would offer a 3rd year. I mean just give him 3/40 million and call it an offseason for crying out loud. At first I was iffy on Sheets bc of the draft pick compensation but giving away a top 20 pick for Brian freaking Fuentes? Seriously? This is the same guy that lost his ‘closing’ job last season right? I mean this is just ridiculous. I’ve always been a TLR backer but !#$#$^. There is just nothing about this move that I understand or can support.

but your left column adds up to 12 wins, and the right column adds up to 19 losses, which is a .387 winning percentage. Bring on Sheets!!!!!

Why not just hire Randy Johnson to close? I can almost guarantee you that Johnson will be a better closer for very similar money and fewer years.

If chris perez is going to blow a few one run games, okay; that happens. we can’t do the izzy show, where we blow games that are all sewn up. Check out this account.

6/22 — perez gives up one run, tying the game. eventually, bosox win in the 13th.
7/12 — chalking this one to perez is deeply unfair. he gave up a single run in the tenth. but franklin had previously given up two runs, izzy THREE, and kmac two (Kmac also charged w/ a blown save)
9/3 — this one is legitimately perez’s fault. he gave up two runs. A Kmac who should have been resting by sept. 3 gave up two runs earlier, after Lohse pitched six innings of shutout ball.
9/5 — looper pitched a good game — shut-out for seven and a third. But the offense only scored one run. perez gave up one run to tie the game. Franklin got the loss after giving up 2 runs.

The take-home lesson here is that Perez did convert 7 of 11 save opportunities, and only gave up 2 runs one time in a save situation. He gave up two runs two other times in non-save situations early in his season. Otherwise, he could be counted on to give up no runs or one run. He made 41 appearances. By contrast, Izzy gave up 2 runs FIVE times, and gave up 3 runs FOUR times in 42 appearances.

His overall stats were decent, though he gives up far too many walks still. But I think to spend at closer when even his first season shows great promise makes no sense. Add Kinney and Motte to that mix, who together gave up one earned run over 19 innings, and you have a pretty decent season in the bullpen shaping up.

A better solution would be to have a staff that regularly gets deep into games and an offense with fewer dead spots — Hardcore had a good comment the other day about amassing home run-or-strikeout kings, who are typically prone to slumps. We lost a lot of close games because our offense just shut down. Ankiel and Glaus were particularly prone to the devastating droughts. This is a compelling reason to look more at Rasmus, Skip, and Barton in the outfield. And we lost some games because our bullpen was very taxed. And we lost some games because Izzy, Franklin, and Flores were not very good, and because Villone and KMac were overused.

I’d also note that in the event perez and motte and kinney all struggle, if we have an extra arm in the rotation, we will be freer to allow wellemeyer to slide into a closer role. it will be much harder to slide fuentes into the rotation if we pass on another starter, than to move wellemeyer or another competent arm to shore up a failing bullpen.

They have $10-15 million to play with. That’s not going to sign a good starting pitcher. $15 million would likely be the starting point for Sheets.

I doubt it would even sign Randy Johnson..

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to use the remaining money to get a pretty good closer (4 blown saves out of 34 isn’t bad by any means, and his overall numbers are excellent, except maybe his walk rate). It shores up the bullpen

I also don’t have much faith in Perez/Motte pitching effectively for long periods with Dave Duncan as the pitching coach.

Plus, in theory, yeah, it’s bad to lost the first round draft pick. But when was the last one picked by the Cardinals that actually made the major league team? Oh, that’s right, Adam Kennedy. Hate to miss out on a player like him.

Sure, overall 1st round draft picks can be a big help, but not the ones that Cardinals sign. They aren’t willing to pay the big bonuses for the really can’t miss prospects.

Maybe Wallace and Rasmus will change that. Maybe they won’t. Both could end up corner outfielders, losing much of their value.

This irritates me to no end. How can they be so smart with the addition of Khalil and be so stupid with this one. I am just dumbfounded by this idea.

We don’t need Fuentes for 3 years right now and the marginal (IMHO only around 1 win over Perez) benefit he might bring isn’t worth losing the flexibility of not having a closer signed that long and the first round pick. Why are we willing to sacrifice the farm again so soon?

TLR was on XM radio last night and I’ve only caught one 10 second snippet. In the one piece I caught this morning, he said free agency for players is the way to go in order to keep the youngsters. I much prefer hearing the questions and answers than reading extracted quotes. Does anyone know if the entire interview is available online?

And for the record, imo, signing a closer for 3 yrs what this team needs. Don’t want to be accused of defending TLR just cause I want to hear the interview…

… and what does this signing do to the psyches of C. Perez and J. Motte? They’ve been grooming (and drafted) Chris Perez for this very moment… and he’s done nothing but answer the call. And now they’re going to pass him over and trash a first round draft pick?

I thought building the farm system was still number one priority? Can you do that by giving up number one picks?

This just seems like a silly use of resources. And surely we could have matched Detroit’s offer for E. Jackson, no? Schumaker and prospect?

On Rasmus:

For Rasmus, La Russa heaped on the praise.
“This guy has a chance to be an impact, everyday outfielder,” La Russa said. “He has a chance to be a very special package.”

This is true. It’s reassuring to hear TLR voice these thoughts.

That clouded ending quickly dispersed with La Russa’s sunny outlook on where the center fielder fits for 2009.
A year ago, La Russa played down Rasmus’ chances of making the major-league roster out of spring training. Now La Russa is open to having Rasmus in the majors even if he’s not a starter.
“You don’t want to do anything that takes away from him making his mark as soon as possible,” La Russa said.

I’m a bit more tepid about this. I don’t see the value in making Rasmus a bench player. He’s a CF so there’s not a RH platoon partner that’s obvious meaning you’d be swapping him out for a different LH fielder most likely. There’s really only two players (Ankiel, Ludwick) that I would say with full confidence are going to be better than Rasmus next year. Schumaker is of similar value, Duncan is a loss and Barton/Mather aren’t as advanced as Rasmus.

If he’s ready for the majors, make him a starter and leave him alone for a few months. If things don’t work out, option him back to AAA and he’ll know what he needs to work on.

Jason Motte is in no way shape or form ready to close on the major league level. Right now he’s a 1 pitch pitcher, he will get hammered on the major league level. He needs more time to develop his slider and splitter. Chris Perez is in a better position than Motte to close. But do we really want to trust Perez , 22 years old, with his pedestrian slider to be the guy to close for us in 09? I’m not saying Fuentes is the answer to all of our prayers, but I think it’s a wise move to bring in a veteran closer.

One less land mine to dodge out there now. Not a bad contract for him at all, but he is redundant with AK IMO.

I heard in on 96.3 this morning. So I don’t know how fact checked it was. But the U man said the Cardinals were looking for a 2 year deal for Fuentes and the Fuentes camp was looking for a 3 year deal. So there is a chance we might not go the whole 3 years.

Is this quote by Strauss:

“La Russa said Duncan has identified several contingencies should the club fail to sign Fuentes. None is within the organization, La Russa said”

and then that then about Hoffman, “I mean, I love and respect Trevor Hoffman. But I don’t know that that’s the guy we’ve talked about a lot,” La Russa said.

Ugh.

make sense, I’d like to play “Devil’s Advocate” here…

For the sake of the argument, let’s agree that neither Perez nor Motte have the sample size to predict their MLB performance in 2009. From the “eyeball test”, it’s my opinion that Perez needs to develop his slider and Motte needs to come up with ANY second pitch to maximize their success at the Major League level.

Whether it’s statistically relevant or not, it’s psychologically “easier” to use “developing” pitches in (allegedly) “lower-leverage” situations; that is, other than the ninth inning. (Yes, I know the highest-leverage situations often occur before the ninth, but bear with me…) So with Corpas shouldering the closer role, Perez and Motte get the chance to “develop” as set-up men this season.

The rest of the team can also be allowed to think, “Okay! We got the ninth nailed down!” That should lead to more confidence, and better play. These are human beings in the uniforms, not Strat-O-Matic cards (pardon the pun)…

While signing Corpas might not be the best thing down the road, it provides the most immediate improvement at the most glaring weakness on the club. Just sayin’…

blow us out of the water! I have to imagine Angel fans will be mocking the front office, if they sign Fuentes for nearly the same deal the Mets gave K-Rod.

I agree with chuckb. It’s not just the $ and the other needs, it’s also losing a draft pick. While the Cards whiffed on Lambert and probably Ottavino, you also have Colby and the Walrus.

And for my own selfish reasons, liveblogging the draft will be exceedingly lame waiting for the Cardinals to pick 84th, or whatever.

Starts at 11 CST right?….. hope the Cards can hold on to Perdomo, but it doesn’t look good.

Sorry to sound so dramatic, but I think this has to get noticed :) I posted this correction more mildly in response to the Springer arb article, which also used bad numbers, but received no response. Absolutely no offense is intended, and I appreciate the work that you and your peers put into the great articles at VEB!

NATE SILVER HAS RETRACTED THE 2.14M CONSTANT BECAUSE IT WAS FOUND TO BE FLAWED AND REPLACED IT WITH A FORMULA: (WARP^2 * $212,730) + (WARP * $402,530)

Silver values “Tier 3” picks at 1.37/1.92/1.85/1.67/1.70/1.32 WARP over six years.

Multiplied by 2.14M each that is 2931800 + 4108800 + 3959000 + 3573800 + 3638000 + 2824800.

With the formula it changes to 950739 + 1557065 + 1472749 + 1265508 + 1299091 + 902000.

THE NEW MARKET VALUE OF A 16-25 PICK WOULD BE 7.45M, NOT 21.05M – A GIGANTIC DIFFERENCE THAT RESULTS IN A TOTAL VALUE CHANGE FROM 8.95M to 2.12M.

These calculations align with the original findings at Sons of Sam Horn.

ge-o-van-y-clap-clap-clapclapclap emailed that link to me in response to the arb article, so it’s his credit!

While Fuentes vs. Sheets (or Randy Johnson plus a draft pick) does not look like the right choice, I contend that we don’t have all the information to be so sure of ourselves.

There are 30 teams out there, 95% of whom would love to have more starting pitching. We don’t know if the Cardinals aren’t interested in Sheets/ Johnson because their statistical values are differently (flawed or with better information) or other non statistical reasons (Has anyone thought that Sheets/ Johnson might not want to play in St. Louis? I know we think pretty highly of ourselves, but I’ve never read that they are interested). If the Yankees or Red Sox, et all ARE interested, do you think we’ll be able to get in a bidding war with them?

It is RUMORED that sheets can be had for 2 years (It was also rumored that Oliver Perez was in our price range until his agent shot out some ridiculous numbers yesterday). What if he’s really looking for a 4 year 60 million dollar deal? What if Johnson has told clubs he will only pitch on the west coast (near his home)?

Now in this hypothetical exercise, say you are MO. You’ve eliminated the “impact” starters because they are out of your price range (and likely will be the next year as well) or do not want to join your club. You aren’t going to share this information to the world.

You can either keep your “flexibility” for another year and do nothing or you can get one of the top 5 relievers from last year (who has pitched very well in a tough environment for his career). While he was originally out of your price range, he’s been downgraded because he had a bad WEEK as a closer in 2007 and lost his job for the year.

Unlike reports, you are looking to lock him up for 2 years with a club option (with a decent size opt out clause) and think you’ve got a shot after the Wood signing (Who in this hypothetical situation, you deemed to high of an injury risk with his history before 2008). Unlike some of the other free agents, Fuentes would love to come to St. Louis.

If we really do know everything, (Sheets and/or Johnson are available for decent dollars short term and would be willing to come here) then this is a bad deal. I just have a little more faith in the Cardinals statistical team and that they have identified something we have not. Just look at the information from astrostl as a good example of thinking we have the right information only to find that we don’t…

http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/12/peavy_deal_to_cubs_dead.html

were going to gain in the peavy deal? It sounded like Vitters, Pie, and K.hart from the cubs. who where the other players involved?

that Fuentes EXPECTS to get 3/33. This just keeps getting better. However he did say the Brewers are a possibility if they can unload Cameron, as are the Angels. Lets just keep our fingers crossed. OT, he said that he thinks Burnett will end up taking the Yankees offer and then getting either Pettitte or Lowe. I mean jimney christmas. CC, Wang, Joba, Pettitte/Lowe, Hughes/Kennedy. At least their defense sucks.

I am happy that Chuck at least addressed the fact the Fuentes is a good pitcher. I still am not sold on Perez or Motte to take over the closer role. After watching last year rebuilding the bullpen was my top priority. I am not even sure Randy Johnson would play for a Midwest team. He sounds like he is sticking to the West Coast. Maybe the Cardinal’s think Sheets is too much of a injury risk for the money.

How can they not see this?