The Paradigm Shift

The only thing constant in this world is change. Nowhere is this more evident than in the world of baseball. The core of the Cardinals team that had been so successful for seven years in this decade pulled things together for one last effort in 2006 to win that World Series. Resting on their laurels, the Cardinals entered 2007 still built around the declining Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds and were swiftly eclipsed by the rising Cubs and Brewers.

D. R. B.

The only thing constant in this world is change. Nowhere is this more evident than in the world of baseball. The core of the Cardinals team that had been so successful for seven years in this decade pulled things together for one last effort in 2006 to win that World Series. Resting on their laurels, the Cardinals entered 2007 still built around the declining Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds and were swiftly eclipsed by the rising Cubs and Brewers.

The world, our society, and baseball function around paradigms. The definition of a paradigm is something that serves as a pattern or model. A paradigm shift is what happens when that pattern or model changes, eliminating the old, tried way of doing things and bringing in a new blueprint for success. When the paradigm does shift, you must get on board and discard your old methods, for all of the success you had had doing things the old way now counts for nothing.

For the first 50 years of professional baseball, the game was defined by "small-ball"; singles, steals, strategic placement of hits, a foucs on precision as opposed to power. In the 1920's the elimintation of the spitball and the entrance of stronger, power-oriented players into the game moved the emphasis towards scoring via the longball. Teams that grasped this change such as the Yankees and later the Philadelphia A's enjoyed stunning successes, and the old guard that continued trying to play the conservative old way fell by the wayside. And every subsequent change from then on, such as Rickey's Farm Teams, Desegregation, Free-Agency, the coming of Steroids, came with the result that those teams that embraced the new concepts and used them to their advantage won championships and formed dynasties. Talented black players gave the Brooklyn Dodgers an edge over others who shunned integration over the course of a decade and enabled the Dodgers to win several pennants and one WS.

Indeed, one can look throught history and cite numerous examples of paradigm shifts. European armies used gunpowder and steel weapons to overwhelm societies still trying to fight with ancient strategies and technology; All of the successes the conquered had had fighting the old way had counted for nothing. The electronic watches manufactured by the Japanese in the 60's virtually eliminated the old Swiss timepiece industry, which was still based around gears and small moving parts in their expensive watches. Henry Ford used Assembly Line technologies to reduce his less efficient competitors. The introduction and use of the Atomic Bomb completely rewrote the book on war and forced entirely new strategic thinking on global and military lines. Once the new invention, concept, or idea comes along and the paradigm shifts, you must get on board and embrace the new method of doing things, the new "rules of the game." Clinging too rigidly and conservatively to the old rules and traditions, thinking inside the box, will only result in defeat, for your business, army, or baseball team. All the success you had doing things the "old way" now count for nothing.

The paradigm is shifting right now in the world of Baseball. Ultimately to what it is shifting to is unclear. The success to be had with deploying a core of veteran, aging players is being usurped by teams stockpiling young talent in the minor leagues and not signing expensive, older, proven but vulnerable players. One only has to look at the recent struggles of the New York Yankees and the late Red Sox/Rays series to view this in a bottle. It seems like the Cardinals are belatedly catching on to the concept of building from within, but what is certain is that the "Old Guard" is crumbling.

All of this, of course, was painfully obvious even by early 2005, when the Cardinals were looking old and tired. That year, they won 100 games, but they staggered to the finish line. The happiness and enthusiasm that come with a contending club were absent. The painful memory of 2004 hung in the air and the expectations of the season were so high that it was almost miserable to watch, despite the success on paper, because nothing less than ultimate success was acceptable. 2005 was the lone window of opportunity, and if the WS was not won that year then it would be another two decades. Guys like Matt Morris, Larry Walker, Mark Mulder, Scott Rolen, Tony La Russa, and Jim Edmonds were clearly declining and there was a faint premonition and strong pessimism in the air. The Dan Haren trade was already being lamented. People knew that a rematch with a vigorous, vibrant Houston club was all but inevitable, as Atlanta and San Diego were expectantly destroyed in the 2005 NLDS'. Even if the Cardinals had somehow beaten Houston and then the White Sox, the victory would have been less a celebration than a sigh of relief. As it happened the limping, aging Cardinals lineup and rotation were outplayed all around, and the matchups of starting pitchers were tilted decidedly in Houston's favor. Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter made statements in the series but it was over before it even began.

2006 should never have happened, but it did, and it was a deeply satisfying championship. Fading pitchers and players on the cusp of falling off the edge of the baseball map pulled things together for one last superhuman effort against younger, more dynamic foes whom had dominated them in the regular season. As great is it all was, the first three months of the 2007 season showed how quickly things had deteriorated and fallen apart, for the 2006 team had become a 5th place club over the course of five months. Things change quickly in baseball.

But things are generally looking up. The 2008 rebound showed steps in the right direction. Indeed, if the bullpen of 2007 had come back and pitched well in 2008, the Cardinals would certainly have gone to the postseason. But this offseason, the Cardinals are showing signs of being lulled into a dangerous complacency. The management appears content to continue to fill holes with bargan-bin, low level singings, as opposed to actually improving the team. It would be nice to say, "Let the farm team continue to develop." However, the minors are generally lacking in those blue-chip, sure thing prospects to develop in to superstars that are so essential of contending clubs. It seems the way we are going now is going to lead us right back to an 84 - 78 third place finish.

Unless the Cardinals can shift the paradigm or jump aboard a current paradigm transition. How can the Cardinals change their organization to give them a decisive advantage over the rest of the field? What new strategies can the team use, wether in drafting players, signing players, training players, or the actual on-field play of the game itself, to stun. overrawe, and dominate opponents. What will the game look like 5, 10, or 20 years from now? The Cardinals have to change their current conservative way of management and wage war aggressively with new strategies and techniques, from the dimensions of the GM's office to the on-field game.

What these "novel strategies" are, remains entirely to be seen. It seems obvious that one should focus on developing talent internally in the minors, thus possessing cost-controlled, homegrown players. Other trends include a renewed emphasis on pitching, defense, and speed, while getting away from a power-oriented lineup. One could cite many more examples.

Of course, one should not just run out and jump on board every new bandwagon with every new trend. But that rigid, inflexible, reactionary style of thinking has to be discarded. One definite suggestion I would make is for the Cardinals owners to surround themselves with young, innovative thinkers with novel ideas and get rid of baseball men whom shut down and automatically react negatively to any suggestion of change. Having said this, I think it is time to end the Tony La Russa era in St. Louis. This team has to start playing baseball like it is 2009 instead of 2002. What worked 8, 18, and 25 years ago is quickly becoming obsolescent. When La Russa first became a manager, he was the vanguard of "the New Order", and he was fantastic for his tenure in St. Louis. But other teams are quickly ascending, and the Cardinals are in danger of falling back and being crushed by others embracing the effective measures of today. As Monsieur Darcy said, "Those who do not advance go backward and those who go back go under."

The dangers of ignoring the warning signs of decay and decline are too great. If the Cardinals are not careful, they could fall into so deep a hole that recovery is almost impossible. One needs only to look at the long droughts and sufferings of Pittsburgh, Washington, Baltimore, and Kansas City. And it seems that a constant among these sorry situations was a fatal complacency, An attitude of, "What was good enough yesterday is good enough today." Only monumental shifts in how the organization functions will get the Cardinals back to the top of the N.L. Central. Will they evolve and vitally regenerate, or will they crumble and become obsolete?

D