Collecting Saber Research Articles

by azruavatar on Nov 28, 2008 12:21 PM EST Comment 45 comments

I can't tell you how many times I've googled for lineup protection in an attempt to find an article refuting it. I eventually bookmark things like that but I've always wished for a FAQ of those kinds of topics so that I'm not forced to do the leg work so often.

It's neither feasible nor advisable for one person to try and list these articles. You'd get omissions and a skewed perspective -- not to mention the prohibitive effort involved. I'm wondering if our community couldn't do it though. My thought process here is that someone posts in the comments "Hey, I'm wondering if there's any research on lineup protection" and then someone links to an appropriate article. Over time, the fanpost could be edited to start listing these types of links and grouping them so it's not a collosal cluster---k.

So I'll open this up to see what kind of esponse there is. If you have a quesiton about a certain topic post it. If you can answer a question answer but the goal should be to link to the original analysis of a topic. No question is too dumb as the whole goal is to make this a safe place to collect and answer even rudimentary saber answers to persistent or common questions.

(If this diary fails miserably after a week or so, I'll remove it. I'm not sure what other way to guage interest.)

********************************************

Player Evaluation

A Primer for Evaluating Pitching Talent (USSMariner)
A Primer for Evaluating Defense (USSMariner)
Player Evaluation Series (Justin Inaz)

Statistics Explained

tRA & tRA without numbers (Statcorner)
FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching (Hardball Times)
WAR - Wins Above Replacement (The BOOK)

Miscellaneous

Lineup Protection Debunked (Sabernomics)
Does a "hot streak" at the plate project future success? (The BOOK)
Starter to Reliever Conversion: When It Makes Sense and What to Expect (BP)

8 recs | Comment 45 comments

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Comments

lineup protection

I just read this yesterday. Unfortunately, it’s not online. There’s a chapter in J.C. Bradbury’s book about lineup protection and, just as you predicted, he refuted the notion. Amazon’s got it for $5.99 right now.

I think this is a very good use of resources AZ. It should save some of us some time (hopefully).

by chuckb on Nov 28, 2008 3:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just Ordered a copy

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 29, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Can we start a page off of the main page?

“VEB’s Recommended Reads” or something?

Just an idea.

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 1, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

start with

the aforementioned Baseball Economist, the book mentioned below — Baseball Between the Numbers, and The Book.

by chuckb on Dec 1, 2008 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baseball Between the Numbers

There’s an article in here about how it doesn’t matter what order you put the lineup in, close to the same results will happen. Of course, batting the players with the highest OBP closer to the front of the lineup, gets them more PA’s on the year and increasing the run production of the team. They use the example of Billy Martin getting fed up with his lineup and just drawing it from the hat (They won the game 3-1).

This book has a lot of great articles about things like this, such as the RBI being useless and how little difference managers make (or just the lack of evidence for it).

by wizardofozzie on Nov 28, 2008 3:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

http://ussmariner.com/2006/08/29/evaluating-pitcher-talent/
http://ussmariner.com/2006/01/24/evaluating-defense/
http://ussmariner.com/2007/03/18/was-a-trade-any-good-and-how-it-relates-to-evaluating-bavasi/

Furcal

by JI on Nov 28, 2008 4:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/6/23/557089/the-big-tra-post
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/11/8/656675/tra-explained-no-numbers

Furcal

by JI on Nov 28, 2008 4:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

tra is a pretty cool stat

Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle." www.futureredbirds.net

by erik on Nov 30, 2008 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If anyone else is curious

http://statcorner.com/

Furcal

by JI on Nov 30, 2008 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

statcorner

is a blessing

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 1, 2008 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

indeed

i wish they would apply park factors for the minor leagues, though. That’s really my only gripe.

Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle." www.futureredbirds.net

by erik on Dec 1, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If it makes you feel any better minor league park factors are what's being worked on

There’s just not very much spare time to put into StatCorner right now.

by Graham on Dec 4, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that site

shows that Barton and Mather are nearly identical hitters. except Barton has more speed, and Mather is (probably) the better defender

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 1, 2008 11:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Mind your sample sizes! :)

by astrostl on Dec 3, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes yes

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Major saber question: Does clutch exist?

I know BP addressed this in Between the Numbers, but I’m sure it has been addressed elsewhere as well.

by mojowo11 on Nov 29, 2008 12:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

clutch hitting, or clutch pitching?

god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs

by SleepyCA on Nov 29, 2008 3:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Both.

The BP article was about hitting, though.

by mojowo11 on Nov 29, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

both can't be clutch...

at least not at the same time. it has to be one or the other- unless you believe in “clutch defense”, which blows the whole “paradigm”. effing east germans.

sigh lol ugh. if “dog” was spelled c – a – t where would we be?

god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs

by SleepyCA on Dec 1, 2008 3:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

(esp if there was a rival faction who spelled it "m o o?"

god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs

by SleepyCA on Dec 1, 2008 4:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There are a ton

of links here:
http://www.geocities.com/cyrilmorong@sbcglobal.net/ClutchLinks2.htm

by haltz on Dec 1, 2008 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

don't know if this is on topic or not

but for those of us cough, (ME) cough, who don’t know what all the letters stand for in the new stats. like for example, FIP & WAR. if there was a guide somewhere on VEB that listed what they all meant, i for one would really appreciate it.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Nov 29, 2008 2:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

This would be a place to have that as well.

FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
WAR – Wins Above Replacement

Also, I’ll do a better job of riding herd over this thread as it progresses. I’ll transition things to the main post and (depending on how crowded the comments get) start hiding old comments to make it easy to read.

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Nov 29, 2008 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

That’s just one way to calculate WAR (and it’s not the method I use for pitchers — I hate the method they use for pitchers). The acronym always stands for the same thing, however.

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Nov 29, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

thanks AZ, i knew what they were

but those were the only two that came to mind @ 230am.

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Nov 29, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Most of the

stats sites (fangraphs, THT, BRef etc) have glossaries. These are also helpful:
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/wiki/index.php/Statistical_Reference_Page
http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

by haltz on Dec 1, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

just sign up to

Beyond The Boxscore already. You won’t be disappointed.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Dec 1, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

done & done

I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!

by gdm426 on Dec 2, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What makes for a good starter-to-reliever transition:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5488

by R.J. Anderson on Nov 30, 2008 4:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Productive Outs

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-truth-about-productive-outs/

"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."

--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS

by bgh on Dec 1, 2008 4:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

anyone have info

on park factor, links to websites, etc

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 1, 2008 5:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Espn.com

surprisingly has always had the best park factor stuff I’ve seen. That’s the only thing I use their site for.

by chuckb on Dec 1, 2008 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

their site is still good for stuff like

total bases and basic stuff, right?

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 1, 2008 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here is a great read about how weather affects parks

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/16/662793/how-much-do-natural-effect

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Dec 2, 2008 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bendix with some BABIP work.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 2, 2008 12:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That is interesting

And a ton of data. Interesting to compare some of the current Cards past seasons with 08

"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum

by scoot on Dec 2, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

my question is

will this make BABIP obsolete, or will we be looking at both stats? because sometimes you want to see how lucky someone is in a season…

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 2, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if BABIP > xBABIP then player was lucky
if BABIP < xBABIP then player was unlucky

Players should not, on balance, consistently outperform their xBABIP from year to year.

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Dec 2, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's not true

A player’s speed, alone, would be a counterargument to this. Even if they had identical contact rates, and sprayed the ball to identical parts of the field, Mo Vaughn (sorry, he’s the archetypal slow player to me) is going to reach base less often than Scott Podsednik.

BABIP for pitchers might be a luck stat, but it just isn’t for hitters. I looked at this for a bunch of HOFers and it clearly wasn’t a luck stat for them (admittedly, I didn’t use xBABIP there, though that refinement would probably fix the problems with the high HR/high K players like Jim Thome).

They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...

by Valatan on Dec 2, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re: Speed
That’s a component of the regression. It’s (to a degree) factored in.

re: HOFs
Sure, this isn’t 100% true. For the 95% of the players that fall in the middle of the curve it applies. For the 5% that are either really shitty hitters or really great hitters, this isn’t going to hold true.

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Dec 2, 2008 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

they’ve got a good model there, but it does not explain everything. gosh, that link should get posted every time the line drive nazis start with babip = ld% + .120.

mo vaughn had some great babips btw.

by greenback06 on Dec 2, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beyond the Boxscore was mentioned above

but I’d like to add that they’re adding a new feature — they’re going to have a semi-regular thread featuring saber-friendly ideas and concepts that we can adapt into fanposts and main threads (yippee!). So while this won’t answer specific questions that we have right now, it will be able to answer questions as we encounter them — and perhaps before we encounter them.

If you are interested in saber-friendly material and haven’t made Beyond the Boxscore one of your 1st stops every day, you should get on that.

by chuckb on Dec 3, 2008 9:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

An article that I've enjoyed quite a bit

isValuing the Context over at fangraphs. Sadly it fizzled out in discussion as soon as it got started, but it’s an excellent read (inc comments).

I like the idea of valuing context in a signing.

Worth a read at least.

One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.

by AdjustedExpectations on Dec 3, 2008 11:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Reference - wOBA positional averages

A fan-poster extraordinaire named devil_fingers at Royals Review has been putting out some really great stuff lately. Today, he’s created positional averages for wOBA and are available via Google Docs.

Royals Review post

Google Doc – wOBA Positional Averages (calculated Fangraphs style)

by lightbulb on Dec 5, 2008 4:07 PM EST reply actions 1 recs