Collecting Saber Research Articles
by azruavatar on Nov 28, 2008 12:21 PM EST
45 comments
I can't tell you how many times I've googled for lineup protection in an attempt to find an article refuting it. I eventually bookmark things like that but I've always wished for a FAQ of those kinds of topics so that I'm not forced to do the leg work so often.
It's neither feasible nor advisable for one person to try and list these articles. You'd get omissions and a skewed perspective -- not to mention the prohibitive effort involved. I'm wondering if our community couldn't do it though. My thought process here is that someone posts in the comments "Hey, I'm wondering if there's any research on lineup protection" and then someone links to an appropriate article. Over time, the fanpost could be edited to start listing these types of links and grouping them so it's not a collosal cluster---k.
So I'll open this up to see what kind of esponse there is. If you have a quesiton about a certain topic post it. If you can answer a question answer but the goal should be to link to the original analysis of a topic. No question is too dumb as the whole goal is to make this a safe place to collect and answer even rudimentary saber answers to persistent or common questions.
(If this diary fails miserably after a week or so, I'll remove it. I'm not sure what other way to guage interest.)
********************************************
Player Evaluation
A Primer for Evaluating Pitching Talent (USSMariner)
A Primer for Evaluating Defense (USSMariner)
Player Evaluation Series (Justin Inaz)
Statistics Explained
tRA & tRA without numbers (Statcorner)
FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching (Hardball Times)
WAR - Wins Above Replacement (The BOOK)
Miscellaneous
Lineup Protection Debunked (Sabernomics)
Does a "hot streak" at the plate project future success? (The BOOK)
Starter to Reliever Conversion: When It Makes Sense and What to Expect (BP)
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lineup protection
I just read this yesterday. Unfortunately, it’s not online. There’s a chapter in J.C. Bradbury’s book about lineup protection and, just as you predicted, he refuted the notion. Amazon’s got it for $5.99 right now.
I think this is a very good use of resources AZ. It should save some of us some time (hopefully).
by chuckb on Nov 28, 2008 3:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Can we start a page off of the main page?
“VEB’s Recommended Reads” or something?
Just an idea.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Dec 1, 2008 4:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
start with
the aforementioned Baseball Economist, the book mentioned below — Baseball Between the Numbers, and The Book.
by chuckb on Dec 1, 2008 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Baseball Between the Numbers
There’s an article in here about how it doesn’t matter what order you put the lineup in, close to the same results will happen. Of course, batting the players with the highest OBP closer to the front of the lineup, gets them more PA’s on the year and increasing the run production of the team. They use the example of Billy Martin getting fed up with his lineup and just drawing it from the hat (They won the game 3-1).
This book has a lot of great articles about things like this, such as the RBI being useless and how little difference managers make (or just the lack of evidence for it).
by wizardofozzie on Nov 28, 2008 3:33 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/6/23/557089/the-big-tra-post
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2008/11/8/656675/tra-explained-no-numbers
Furcal
by JI on Nov 28, 2008 4:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
tra is a pretty cool stat
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle." www.futureredbirds.net
by erik on Nov 30, 2008 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
statcorner
is a blessing
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 1, 2008 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
indeed
i wish they would apply park factors for the minor leagues, though. That’s really my only gripe.
Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle." www.futureredbirds.net
by erik on Dec 1, 2008 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If it makes you feel any better minor league park factors are what's being worked on
There’s just not very much spare time to put into StatCorner right now.
by Graham on Dec 4, 2008 6:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that site
shows that Barton and Mather are nearly identical hitters. except Barton has more speed, and Mather is (probably) the better defender
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 1, 2008 11:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yes yes
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 3, 2008 6:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Major saber question: Does clutch exist?
I know BP addressed this in Between the Numbers, but I’m sure it has been addressed elsewhere as well.
by mojowo11 on Nov 29, 2008 12:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
clutch hitting, or clutch pitching?
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Nov 29, 2008 3:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Both.
The BP article was about hitting, though.
by mojowo11 on Nov 29, 2008 7:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
both can't be clutch...
at least not at the same time. it has to be one or the other- unless you believe in “clutch defense”, which blows the whole “paradigm”. effing east germans.
sigh lol ugh. if “dog” was spelled c – a – t where would we be?
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 1, 2008 3:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
(esp if there was a rival faction who spelled it "m o o?"
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
by SleepyCA on Dec 1, 2008 4:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
don't know if this is on topic or not
but for those of us cough, (ME) cough, who don’t know what all the letters stand for in the new stats. like for example, FIP & WAR. if there was a guide somewhere on VEB that listed what they all meant, i for one would really appreciate it.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Nov 29, 2008 2:26 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
This would be a place to have that as well.
FIP – Fielding Independent Pitching
WAR – Wins Above Replacement
Also, I’ll do a better job of riding herd over this thread as it progresses. I’ll transition things to the main post and (depending on how crowded the comments get) start hiding old comments to make it easy to read.
by azruavatar on Nov 29, 2008 11:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
That’s just one way to calculate WAR (and it’s not the method I use for pitchers — I hate the method they use for pitchers). The acronym always stands for the same thing, however.
by azruavatar on Nov 29, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks AZ, i knew what they were
but those were the only two that came to mind @ 230am.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Nov 29, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Most of the
stats sites (fangraphs, THT, BRef etc) have glossaries. These are also helpful:
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/wiki/index.php/Statistical_Reference_Page
http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page
by haltz on Dec 1, 2008 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
just sign up to
Beyond The Boxscore already. You won’t be disappointed.
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
by mattyfrommo on Dec 1, 2008 9:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
done & done
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
by gdm426 on Dec 2, 2008 2:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Productive Outs
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-truth-about-productive-outs/
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
by bgh on Dec 1, 2008 4:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
anyone have info
on park factor, links to websites, etc
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 1, 2008 5:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Espn.com
surprisingly has always had the best park factor stuff I’ve seen. That’s the only thing I use their site for.
by chuckb on Dec 1, 2008 8:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
their site is still good for stuff like
total bases and basic stuff, right?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 1, 2008 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That is interesting
And a ton of data. Interesting to compare some of the current Cards past seasons with 08
"Baseball is like Church, many attend, few understand" - Wes Westrum
by scoot on Dec 2, 2008 2:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
my question is
will this make BABIP obsolete, or will we be looking at both stats? because sometimes you want to see how lucky someone is in a season…
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 2, 2008 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if BABIP > xBABIP then player was lucky
if BABIP < xBABIP then player was unlucky
Players should not, on balance, consistently outperform their xBABIP from year to year.
by azruavatar on Dec 2, 2008 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's not true
A player’s speed, alone, would be a counterargument to this. Even if they had identical contact rates, and sprayed the ball to identical parts of the field, Mo Vaughn (sorry, he’s the archetypal slow player to me) is going to reach base less often than Scott Podsednik.
BABIP for pitchers might be a luck stat, but it just isn’t for hitters. I looked at this for a bunch of HOFers and it clearly wasn’t a luck stat for them (admittedly, I didn’t use xBABIP there, though that refinement would probably fix the problems with the high HR/high K players like Jim Thome).
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
by Valatan on Dec 2, 2008 4:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
re: Speed
That’s a component of the regression. It’s (to a degree) factored in.
re: HOFs
Sure, this isn’t 100% true. For the 95% of the players that fall in the middle of the curve it applies. For the 5% that are either really shitty hitters or really great hitters, this isn’t going to hold true.
by azruavatar on Dec 2, 2008 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
they’ve got a good model there, but it does not explain everything. gosh, that link should get posted every time the line drive nazis start with babip = ld% + .120.
mo vaughn had some great babips btw.
by greenback06 on Dec 2, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Beyond the Boxscore was mentioned above
but I’d like to add that they’re adding a new feature — they’re going to have a semi-regular thread featuring saber-friendly ideas and concepts that we can adapt into fanposts and main threads (yippee!). So while this won’t answer specific questions that we have right now, it will be able to answer questions as we encounter them — and perhaps before we encounter them.
If you are interested in saber-friendly material and haven’t made Beyond the Boxscore one of your 1st stops every day, you should get on that.
by chuckb on Dec 3, 2008 9:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
An article that I've enjoyed quite a bit
isValuing the Context over at fangraphs. Sadly it fizzled out in discussion as soon as it got started, but it’s an excellent read (inc comments).
I like the idea of valuing context in a signing.
Worth a read at least.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Dec 3, 2008 11:58 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Reference - wOBA positional averages
A fan-poster extraordinaire named devil_fingers at Royals Review has been putting out some really great stuff lately. Today, he’s created positional averages for wOBA and are available via Google Docs.
Google Doc – wOBA Positional Averages (calculated Fangraphs style)
by lightbulb on Dec 5, 2008 4:07 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
fangraphs now has UZR up
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Dec 7, 2008 8:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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