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Shortstops

Not that I expect all of you to be, at this very moment, in line for $300 laptops and 32 inch Pyongyang-branded plasma TVs, but I get the feeling that traffic might be pretty light today. With that in mind—that and the knowledge that when we acquire either Trever Miller or Arthur Rhodes you won't need an RSS feed to alert you because something in your heart will just feel right that's never really felt right before—this is something of a stop-gap post as we drift back into reality and Viva El Birdos's more typical pattern. 

So let's talk about shortstops. Not the free agents—there'll be plenty of time for that—but the ones who are dictating that the Cardinals acquire a free agent shortstop, and how long they commit. Here are your options:

2954107236_2f23560ede_medium

CLOSE TO THE MAJORS, FAR FROM PREDICTABLE

Here, rapidly approaching the major leagues, you have the kind of players whose eventual ascent to the bigs will be borne more of necessity than desire. Tyler Greene (above, courtesy momup), at the rate he's going now, will end up with major league playing time not because La Russa can't wait to play him but because he has no place else to go. You've measured free agent shortstops against replacement players before; well, meet the replacement players. 

Tyler Greene is the number one pick, for obvious reasons; he was, well, a number one pick, back in 2005 (or After Rasmus year 0) and he is apparently a legitimate defensive shortstop.

Back when he was drafted Greene's reputation was not all that unlike Peter Kozma's; he was, we were told, a defense-first shortstop whose bat might struggle to adjust at the upper levels. It was true, but it failed to take into account the awesome way in which his bat has not adjusted at the upper levels.Because Tyler Greene is the single coolest maladjusted defense-first shortstop of all time.

It's like this: most of the time, social disfunction produces marginal characters who exist on society's outskirts and express its disaffection and anxiety through crime and decay. You get gangs and car thieves and muggers. But occasionally, those same forces come together and produce the Fonz, an avatar of both social distrust and how cool reading is, of counterculture and being respectful to your friends' parents.

Tyler Greene is the Fonz of failing to adjust to major league pitching.

This is not your father's failure to adjust, the overpowered-by-real-pitchers .250/.300/.300 line that all would-be David Ecksteins produce when pressed into service as utility infielders. This is the bad Richie Sexson playing shortstop.

In what amounts to a full season of AA ball, cut in half by a serious knee injury in 2007, Greene hit 24 home runs, stole 24 bases, struck out 161 times, and managed 38 walks. I haven't gotten to see him live, yet, but sometimes I get the feeling that his approach at the plate is akin to when a pitcher who has a lot of power goes up there once or twice a start and just swings as hard as he can three times.

After Brett Wallace finally started hitting as expected Greene replaced him as the designated Arizona Fall League surprise. He hit .287/.380/.506, his three homers and two triples seeming to encapsulate everything he can do pretty nicely. The problem is that in 87 at-bats packed with so many optimistic indicators he still managed to strike out 29 times.

Striking out in a third of your at-bats makes predicting major league success pretty difficult, but depending on how the Cardinals' internal metrics and scouts see his defense come Spring Training I wouldn't be stunned if he earned some real MLB playing time at short, should the Cardinals fail to land a Name. .220/.280/.370 seems just about unbearable until you start a guy who slugs .309 over an entire season. 

And most importantly of all, he would fail awesomely.

FAR FROM THE MAJORS, OUR MINDS: PETE KOZMA

Even with the top-ten prospect lists looming large Kozma seems to have drifted out of our collective conscience, which is somewhat ominous since he did almost exactly what was expected of him headed into this year. 

The rule-provingly rare polished, medium-upside high schooler, Kozma spent most of his year in low-A Quad Cities—a small victory—and showed off what has always been described as a broad-based skill-set. His perfectly decent .284/.363/.398 line is the result of a hot start, a terrible slump, and a nice finish that led him to an ugly month in high-A. He walks a lot, he doesn't strike out too much, he plays shortstop well, he hits for a little power, and since he was 20 and spent his year in a pitcher's league where he was a little young he gives you just enough to wish on. He is the rare player who is commended with faint praise, a rousing chorus of it from all directions. 

I wasn't (and am still not) a fan of the Kozma pick, but I think he is—mildly, in true Kozma fashion—underrated heading into this year, especially when the free agent market leads us to look at our future options. His performance screams college-player-not-dominating-the-low-minors, even though he was a high schooler; since he's so well-adjusted there's nothing to What-If about. But if he were to regress from 2008 he would still be spending all of his age-21 season putting up average numbers in another pitcher's league. (Greene was 21 when he was drafted, and put up marginal, surprisingly punchless numbers in short season ball and high-A.) He's got a few years before being just passable is a death knell. 

Combined with Nico Vasquez, a toolsier but less predictable alternative who will ideally be chasing him up the ranks, Kozma should give us some hope that this time in 2010, when the Cardinals are either hoping that someone signs Edgar Renteria before the arb deadline so they get some draft picks or that Tyler Greene's .211/.233/.580 line doesn't price him out of their range, they won't be spending another few years on the Middle Infield Free Agent Carousel.

So if there are people out there today—perhaps on their iPhones, while in line at Best Buy for another iPhone—here is your prompt: the Cardinals' internal middle infield options, today (literally) and tomorrow (figuratively.) Discuss. 

(Or you can just talk about what you ate yesterday.)

2 recs  |  Comment 47 comments

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Donovan Solano

I think Donovan Solano should also be in the mix for names discussed as future SSs. He’ll be 21 for all of next year at AA and maybe even AAA if Greene is bumped to the big club. I know he’s a guy Luhnow always mentions as an unheralded prospect. Maybe our best hope for him is Luis Ordaz pt. 2, but I think he has the makings of a poor man’s Placido Polanco too.

by slu on Nov 28, 2008 9:38 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for a preview and review

It looks like there is not much in the pipeline.

Re: Greene: Does anyone know what types of pitches he is struggling with? Is he not catching up to minor league fastballs? I am guessing it’s not the breaking stuff in the minors? Is there hope for improvement on the strikeout front?

The rule-provingly rare polished, medium-upside high schooler

Can you please string together a longer set of modifiers? I had to read that 3x’s. He he.

Happy black Friday everybody. Thankfully, my sister-in-law went shopping with my wife, so that I could sleep in this year.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Nov 28, 2008 9:43 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

i've actually heard...

that greene’s bat speed is fine….its the curves and especially the change-ups that are killing him…he really can’t pick up the spin on the ball it seems

by VolsnCards5 on Nov 28, 2008 10:03 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Is there hope?

Choke up on bat. Sacrifice power for cutting down strikeouts? But that doesn’t help pitch recognition. Does he need glasses? Greg Maddux look?

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Nov 28, 2008 10:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hope that his pitch recognition is going to take a huge step forward?

Probably not. He’s, what, 25 now?

There’s hope that he can be a major league SS without having good pitch recognition though. The offensive bar for SS isn’t particularly daunting. If he’s a good defensive SS (possible) than he can hit sub replacement level and still be a net positive.

by azruavatar on Nov 28, 2008 10:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Me too on the rule-provingly........

Love your writing style DanUp but I’m still grappling with that one.

by easy on Nov 28, 2008 11:10 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm mixed

I suppose it is clever and all, but it was hard for me, too many times, to pull out the basic info… for reason of a ‘deep structure’ gone a bit amok. By the time I reached this ‘sentence’ :

“He’s got a few years before being just passable is a death knell.”

my hands were up in a ‘no mas’ gesture.

It worked well as a prompt, though, and he clearly knows more about the Cardinal farm than I do, so I am embarrassed to seem to be complaining. At least it wasn’t full of sabermetrics over my head. What the hell is a VORP anyway?

by the Tewk on Nov 29, 2008 4:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

VORP

is Value Over Replacement Player. Measures how many runs a player is responsible for over what a replacement player would give you.

Now the definition of replacement player? That one is a bit beyond my total comprehension still, but I think that a replacement level player is calculated at a percentage below league average production. I wish that I could find the link this morning for definitions, but when I do I will try to put it here.

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Nov 29, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Danup

Please don’t be intimidated by our comments. These blogs need all the colorful prose they can get. It won’t hurt anybody to expend the effort to figure them out.

by easy on Nov 29, 2008 7:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

thanks,

and don’t worry about it. Usually I can tell in the morning when I’ve written something incomprehensible in the evening, and rule-provingly was one of my most painful clunkers.

(That said, I’ll stand by the extended Fonz analogy until the day I die.)

by DanUpBaby on Dec 1, 2008 3:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What we ate?

I was just wondering what you were eating that caused you to come up with this nugget of a paragraph:
bq.It’s like this: most of the time, social disfunction produces marginal characters who exist on society’s outskirts and express its disaffection and anxiety through crime and decay. You get gangs and car thieves and muggers. But occasionally, those same forces come together and produce the Fonz, an avatar of both social distrust and how cool reading is, of counterculture and being respectful to your friends’ parents

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Nov 28, 2008 9:46 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

now that wasn't supposed to happen...grr

* sarcasm might be involved in this comment

by mattyfrommo on Nov 28, 2008 9:46 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Am I missing something?

Why is Brian Barden not in this conversation? Including the part about replacement level…

by StanTheManFan on Nov 28, 2008 10:03 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Agree

Although I think Barden’s future is as a utility player I think Greene has no future at all. I don’t know when Greene lost the “erratic defender” label because his error totals remain high. I heard early in his career that most of his errors were of the throwing variety so they can’t be blamed on the rough infields in the minors. Barden’s rep is that he has a good glove and his defensive stats are better accross the board than Greene’s. Add in the fact that he has experience at 2b and 3b, has significantly higher obas and slugging percentages, strikes out less and is ready this year and it is no contest. I will be sorely ticked if the Cardinals let a potentially useful player get away to make sure that they really didn’t make a mistake on a first round pick. They did.

by easy on Nov 28, 2008 11:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

interesting interview with barden

here. he really, really hates the diamondbacks, apparently.

Interesting regarding his comments: “While in D-Backs organization, I kept telling people I belong in the middle infield. People get labeled to easily in baseball; it is annoying. … for somebody with a glove as good as mine, it is a waste to have it stuck at a corner position.”

My philosophy exactly. Sadly, i doubt if Barden’s bat+glove is good enough to get him on the org’s radar as anything but an “if all else fails” kind of candidate.

god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs

by SleepyCA on Nov 28, 2008 5:56 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

my initial reaction as well

however, barring bad roster management or a sudden aversion to a certain ‘scrappy’ munchkin as MIF backup, I don’t see a spot for Barden. Freese or even Mather would be preferable as the bench back up for third. Defensively, Barden would be a better MIF backup than Miles, but I doubt we make that choice.

can’t imagine any of the internal options starting at short this season

by 2010, we best not be still searching for a ML caliber shortstop

by vances law on Nov 28, 2008 12:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kozma is underrated

People really thought he underperformed this year, thus proving all the doubters right, but here is a number for their consideration—

wOBA+ 110 Mike Moustakas
109 for Kozma

Amaury translates into "Punisher of Spheroids" in the lost tongue of Atlantis. Marti means "Belgian Waffle." www.futureredbirds.net

by erik on Nov 28, 2008 10:16 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Haha

Yep at Best Buy and am reading this on my iPhone, good deals on TVs today

by thoran85 on Nov 28, 2008 10:18 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Yes.

I’m all for giving Greene a shot in spring training. I look at the FA market and nothing is appealing to me. I’d rather go youth over veteran but clearly TLR will feel differently. The key, as I see it, is signing a legit 2B if you are going to take a chance at SS. The reality is that the organization is going to start having a lot of AAA+ players in the near future and they are going to have to decide what process they will take in determining these player’s futures in STL

by riotmute on Nov 28, 2008 10:31 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

take kahil greene

and cash for somebody not too great, ie, roll the dice by taking him and keeping luddy. greene has real potential to rebound (contract year motivation and all), though obviously, he may not. nonetheless, the “proven” players available all have major performance risks also (e.g., age is against them). it seems we are not going to devote long term resources to furcal, so what to do? i’d rather role the dice on greene for a year than edgar or orlando for 2-3 years, with our greene or ryan in reserve (each of whom could largely replace iz2 for much less money). it’s one year and it could be a good one.

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Nov 28, 2008 10:48 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Ryan through waivers?

Is BR guaranteed to go through waivers? He is opt of options, right?

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Nov 28, 2008 10:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

don't think so

he’s only been up a couple of years, so still has options. i suspect, however, we will go for what tlr wants (i.e., vet ss), which means greene, ryan, and barden will battle for the utility spot behind miles. i don’t see any of them with trade value themselves at this point. ryan may actually have the edge because he had at least a little success in the outfield. this scenario means floppy is gone, which i hope is the case.

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Nov 28, 2008 11:13 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

per Birdhouse's recent roster spot piece, he is

"Out of options, Ryan could be sent down once and kept in the organization by being outrighted, but that is really a one-time only choice. While the Olympian Barden has improved his stock considerably since being outrighted himself early last season, he has to be considered a longshot to make the team. "

by vances law on Nov 28, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

reading the description of Tyler Greene

is he the same player as Khalil Greene?
Certainly seems to be the 2008 version of Khalil and wouldn’t Tyler be vastly cheaper both to obtain and salary wise?

by vances law on Nov 28, 2008 12:40 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you would hope

k greene reverts to his previous mean

t greene you would plays better than he ever has

i choose kg for a few extra bucks, ie, i think if he was on the open market w/o a contract he’d be looking for a one year deal somewhere and could probably get 1/2 his current salary. seems that is what we should shoot for (same money as iz2).

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Nov 28, 2008 1:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He's the same type of player

but he hasn’t proven that he’s that good. Yuchhh. He hasn’t had as good a minor league season as Kahlil’s ‘07 in the majors. He also hasn’t proven, at least to me, that he is actually a good shortstop.

by easy on Nov 28, 2008 10:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The middle infield situation is looking even grimmer.

If the Giants really did offer Edgar 18 mil for two years we should not try to top it. We will not get Furcal and we cannot go into next season with two black holes in the lineup. We also need to maintain our defensive strength there or that pitching staff will fall apart.. We may have to bite the bullet on the Ludwick for Kelly Johnson and a good young pitcher idea. If we did that and brought up Colby I’d be satisfied with re-signing Izturis for defense. Otherwise I agree with Sportsman that we should look at Kahlil Greene if we could get him cheaply. I then might do the unthinkable by giving (gulp) Adam Kennedy another shot at second. Jeez I’m getting more depressed as I type.

by easy on Nov 28, 2008 11:09 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

transcendent

and you have depressed ME, too. Leading with my heart, as I almost always do, my daunted wish is that neither Itz nor Kennedy be on the Cardinal roster come April.
I also think (again maybe more heart than head) that with the much-maligned Miles and the ‘ready’ Barden in the fold as MI backups, the Cardinals can and should roll the dice in one way {say goodbye to CI and AK, no matter how} and NOT roll them in another way {no, no, no to an over-priced vet like Furcal or Edgar}.

by the Tewk on Nov 29, 2008 4:34 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Tyler Greene

is forever embedded in my mind for a game one sunny afternoon in which his pain was briefly mine. I’ll never forget the gruesomeness that was heard when his knee bent the wrong way, giving a distinct pop that could be heard several rows deep, and the excruciating pain left on his face whenever he missed that pitch. Everyone that day felt his pain, a collective groan could be heard throughout the stadium as people empathized with the pain.

It’s barely relevant now, as he seems to have heeled, but I’ll never forget that game.

I am serious, and don't call me Shirley.

by Dave Barry on Nov 28, 2008 11:11 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Here, at the end of November, 2008,
Yunier Castillo may be the best fielding SS in the organization.

But organization-wide, it’ll take 2 years to determine whether or not…
B. Ryan can provide the offense to go with his defense or
T. Greene can provide consistent OPS numbers to go with his defense or
J. Martinez has the range and pop to make it or
P. Kozma (as advertised) has an average major league bat or
D. Solano can improve his fielding or
Niko V. can harness great athletic ability (compare to OF Jones) or
Yunier C. can hit well enough….

Then, by the end of 2010, you hope that one of these prospects will have separated himself from the others and we’ll have a young, cost-controlled SS for several years.

So — either “Make Do” with Ryan/Barden/Miles/Greene for two years or
sign / trade for a vet major league SS for 2 years…

just my .02

by ArRedbird on Nov 28, 2008 11:13 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

great ss wheel of chance

still has a ways to go as you say and 2 years may be right. i just have great reservations about edgar (fond memories and all) or orlando being worth what it will take to get them for 2 years, probably plus an option. underlying all of this is how to overcome what i’m afraid will be (big) dead money in carp for a couple more years. somehow we need to plug at least one cheap and one above average mi player into the lineup next year to have a shot. this is why i favor a one year deal with k. greene, though we might get an option plugged in for him too. if carp’s money isn’t dead and kg does well, we try to keep him. if not, then we let him go (hopefully garnering draft picks) and go after a front line starter with the money we have. without a healthy carp or equivalent, we are going to be spinning our wheels and only marginally competitive for the next couple of years.

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Nov 28, 2008 11:26 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

comparisons

I know a lot of people don’t like comparisons of minor league players to major league players, but who can tyler be compared to in the majors?
could he be a khalil greene with less power and slightly less range….or….gulp… an izturis with more pop?

http://www.redbirdramblings.wordpress.com

waiting for the 2009 season to begin and colby rasmus to patrol centerfield!
http://www.redbirdramblings.wordpress.com

by cards4life on Nov 28, 2008 12:42 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Per Baseball Prospectus

TG’s closest comp in the 2007 yearbook (he didn’t qualify for one in 2008) was the immortal Kelly Dransfeldt. This isn’t exactly the kind of comp you really want on your resume.

Other comps were John Nelson (former Cardinals farmhand with 5 MLB at-bats, .000 average, 4 Ks), Corey Ragsdale, Jose Morban. Not much joy there either.

Even acknowledging that he’s improved since the beginning of 2007 (or not, depending on whether you believe his 2008 regular season performance or AFL), I don’t think a comparison to that other Greene is particularly edifying.

by StanTheManFan on Nov 28, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You guys see

Freddy Garcia got hurt again, probably limiting any clubs calling him…cept for the Cards I presume, he might fall into this years project.

I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2

by punchinjudy on Nov 28, 2008 3:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Barden baffles me...

At least, how he hasn’t really gotten a shot in the majors. He’s done pretty well in the minors (not great, but by middle infield standards, not terrible). Yet he got half the PA of Rico Washington last year.

I’ve just never understood the logic this team uses when the team is out of the race. Why not give guys in the minors a chance? Yeah, maybe it doesn’t tell you anything even if they hit (like say, Bo Hart), but at least it gives you a little data to work with

Felipe Lopez - next year's Joel Pineiro

by DiscoJer on Nov 28, 2008 6:52 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

they were in the race for quite a bit

this year, even at an outside shot…i think we were all ready for them to even win and be in it full steam ahead or get way far out to play the youngsters…with the help of the cubs and brew crew they stade in it a bit longer than expected

I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2

by punchinjudy on Nov 28, 2008 8:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

End of season cups of coffee

are not necessarily better for player evaluations than time at AAA. Frequently the opponents won’t be fielding their first string, either. There are also problems with small sample sizes.

Can anyone think of a minor leaguer who got a September call after an uninspiring minor-league season, lit the place up, and went on to stardom? I can’t. A callup after tearing up the minors is a different proposition, but that certainly wasn’t Barden’s situation.

by StanTheManFan on Nov 28, 2008 8:41 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i agree with that assesment,

however my case was that if they would have tanked in lets say august or july maybe they would have given more looks to the minors to see what they had. I could be wrong, but it’s my thoughts.

I do think though maybe we didn’t give a look at barden, but we did get to see the young arms, and see what they have in them. Who really from the infield would you bump? Maybe not sign Lopez, but again they thought they were still in it and he did help them when he came over.

I can't believe i gave up a homerun to that punch and judy hitter-major league 2

by punchinjudy on Nov 28, 2008 8:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You have to ask yourself

would you rather watch Cesar Izturis ground out 286 times or watch Tyler Greene strike out 166 times with 120 groundouts? In the end, if Greene hits 10 HRs it’d be worth watching while costing the Cardinals no money.

by Hardcore Legend on Nov 28, 2008 11:43 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

thinking wayyyy outside the box

{and showing my age}… when I looked at the FA available list for shortstop, two names (two old favorites) jumped out at me: Omar Vizquel and Juan Castro.
Both are beyond the ‘improbable’ and not on the radar, I’m sure. But if they had a shortstop fielding contest at the All-Star break, instead of the obscene ‘home run’ affair, I bet one of these two old dogs would win it.

by the Tewk on Nov 29, 2008 4:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

shortstop fielding contest

imagining how that would work…

how about lining up the sluggers from the NL and put the AL middle infielders on the field, then have them hit the ball off a tee towards SS, with chalk on the ground to mark the “zone”; give the defenders 10 “errors”, (in which the ball gets by them “in the zone”)? maybe have them throw to the first baseman of their choice? With bonus points for fielding balls “out of the zone”?

Of course, the sluggers get to hit until one of their balls gets fielded…

god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs

by SleepyCA on Nov 29, 2008 1:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

omar would be fine for year

"No matter where you go, there you are" Buckeroo Bonzai Across the 8th Dimension

by sportsman on Nov 29, 2008 9:25 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I want

a veteran SS for this position for the next 2 years and I agree with Tewk & sportsman. Omar Vizquel would be an awesome candidate for the job in ‘09. He’s exactly what we’re looking for in the clubhouse, we’re not giving anything up in the field and if he’s at replacement level at the plate, he’ll still be an upgrade over Izturis, but who’s to say that he could stay healthy for the season or be reliable for a second. A small 1 yr. deal would be fine if my first pick (Renteria) falls through. Since there was no truth to the Giants-Renteria rumor, I think I would definitely like to have him back for 8-10 mil over 2 years. For 2011, I’m rooting for Kozma. If this guy can keep adjusting as he did this year, he has potential to be very average offensively and very good defensively for many cost-controlled years.

by aaron_notmiles on Dec 1, 2008 9:25 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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