Tuesday Notes
by DanUpBaby on Nov 25, 2008 7:38 AM EST
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PrintAnd lefty relievers somehow begin another day atop the news cycle. I've never had sympathy for 24-hour news networks, and I probably never will so long as Nancy Grace is gainfully employed, but if I were ever going to gin any up it would be while blogging about baseball in late November. Trever Miller probably appeared less often in his high school paper than he has in the Post-Dispatch in the last week.
Arthur Rhodes is an interesting case, but I'm not sure what to get out of what's there. He's got a nice career platoon split—.614 OPS v. lefties, .735 v. righties—but when he was Arthur Rhodes, the name reliever for whom the Cardinals would, in part, be paying, he was notable for having no platoon split at all; he mowed down righties and lefties indiscriminately, and while he was brought in primarily to face tough left-handed hitters he still typically faced as many righties in a season. It's mostly in his dotage, and earlier in his career, that he's shown a particular distaste for right-handers.
But in 2008, while putting up that gorgeous 2.04 ERA—maybe it's just too early for me to be awake, but that seems, in its slight asymmetry and false precision, to be a perfect back-of-the-baseball-card number—he was just about the LOOGY-est LOOGY who ever did LOOG. Not only did he face 55% lefties in his stint, he threw his 35.1 innings over 61 games. That sort of average, 2.4 plate appearances per game, should give you uncomfortable memories of the 2005 version of Ray King, whose shiny ERA was cold comfort when he was in the process of turning another right-handed batter into Joe Jackson.
To use a reliever that selectively—a reliever who is not Mike Myers or Chad Bradford or some other pitcher who is more or less physically incapable of throwing the baseball to certain types of hitters—is to invite a lot of suspicion into the already suspicious, alchemic art of signing a kind of pitcher whose very job description makes it difficult to accrue enough numbers for anything to be meaningful.
Then there was the Edgar Renteria signing and unsigning. Now that we have what was presumably some kind of offer out in the open—two years, $18 million—I feel a little like I'm cheating off of Brian Sabean's notes. Oh, that's what it's going to take, or almost take? Tell me more.
I think Renteria's proximity to the Robbie Alomar Dead Zone might be a little overstated, because not every over-30 middle infielder turns to dust and his defense, having slipped below average, is not therefore guaranteed to immediately force him into an infield corner. But if there's any question at all of continued decline the main problem, with Renteria, is less that decline in and of itself than weighing that against his bizarre pattern of upside. There's just no way of knowing what a true Renteria recovery would look like; 2003 and 2007 seem to have been placed into his career more or less at random, and without them his career hitting numbers are less Jay Bell and more a taller, less gritty David Eckstein.
That said, somebody's got to play shortstop, and as much as I love Tyler Greene and his Two True Outcomes stylings he's not the guy. If Edgar is still available after the arbitration deadline and two years under twenty million is less a jumping-off point than an offer on the table there could be worse options. His offensive decline, at least, seems no more certainly real than Cesar Izturis's defensive renaissance.
Finally, over at Beyond the Boxscore Mr. Vince Coleman is the poster child for a list of the best base stealers since 1900. (I guess Sliding Billy Hamilton will just have to wait for some other list.) I've come of age as a Cardinals fan in a weird time for Vince Coleman valuation—it seems like I'm stuck in the moment between "That tarp machine cost us 1985" and "That Vince Coleman cost us 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, and 1989." So it's weird to see what Coleman could do, heretofore relegated to vague, intangible notions of throwing the pitcher off his game or getting rallies started, begin to be evaluated statistically.
A commenter on BtBS put it the most succinctly: "In 1986 Vince Coleman got on base 199 times. He stole 107 bases and was caught 14 times." That's just shockingly effective. It's like being a LOOGY—sorry, Trever Miller has devastated my capacity for analogy—and just not allowing any left-handers to reach base. It's perfect, and according to BtBS it was worth 18 runs.
... Of course, he hit .232/.301/.280 that year.
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WHITEY BALL
THING IS, THE VALUE OF THAT .280 SLG IS DECEPTIVE…
IN OTHER WORDS, WHAT WOULD VINCE’S OPS BE IF YOU COUNTED 107 OF THAT .301 OBP AS DOUBLES???!!! VINCE BECOMES MIKE JACOBS!!!
Wow angry or something?
Writing in All Caps is Like Shouting
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
That's just TOLAXOR
lboros repudiated the upper case; TOLAXOR restores the balance by rejecting the lower.
good point
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
I got a bit of a chuckle...
…out of the link in your signature.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 25, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
Like the signature
Nice to see you’re reading some self-help articles.
"Can robots disagree and can they do that in such a way that we don’t hate them?"
Well Az, can they?
"Do what you want to the women and children but leave me alone"- George Carlin
by That's a Winner on Nov 25, 2008 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
It has been quiet
around here for quite some time.
my eyes are bleeding.
ok. i’ve accepted the caps. but is it necessary to follow that up with 3 exclamation points ?
I'd rather my sister be a prostitute than my brother a Cub fan.
Well, it's not deceptive if you're going to add in 19 baserunning runs.
Baseball-Reference has his batting runs at -31 (compared to average) for 1986, which I’m pretty sure already includes his SB numbers, although it doesn’t look quite right.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 25, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
it's good to have you back brother
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Renteria
If it’s 2 years and $18M before the arbitration process, then you’d have to think that the price is going to go up a bit afterwards, unless teams just don’t value him all that much. Considering the scarcity of quality free agent SS this year, I don’t that that will be the case.
IMO, $9M per season over two years is too much for him. I might pay him $9M for one season — but I’d be more inclined to pay him around $7M for one season and between $12M and $13M for two. Anything longer than a 2 year deal has to be off of the table from the Cardinal standpoint, as we’ll need payroll flexibility after the 2010 season to begin negotiations with Albert on his final contract, and Wainwright and Molina both start to become expensive around that time.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'm with you on that one fourstick
His declining bat is a bit of a concern for me, but his declining glove worries me even more. Would his upgrade over Izturiz at the plate be negated by his inabilities with the glove?
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Another total agreement.
Why would you pay 9mm plus for a year of a player from which you literally have no idea what is coming (but probability indicates that it is not good) when you could pay izturis less than half of that (for what looks like similar to better production) and apparently sign someone like affeldt with the rest?
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
How is Izturis any more "predictable" than Renteria
Izturis had his first healthy season in four years in 2008 and was still a putrid offensive player, albeit a very good defensive one. What I’m paying for is the upside: Hoping that Renteria can come in a give the Cardinals something similar to what he gave the Braves in 2007 or the Cardinals in 2003-2004. Is it likely? No, probably not, but is it any more likely that Izturis is healthy and repeats his 2008 performance, or that Rafael Furcal would sign in St. Louis for under 4 years and less than $15M per season? No, it’s not.
As I said, $18M for 2 year is too much, and I’d much rather offer him $7M for one or $12-$14M for 2 years.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
See i never said izturis was "predictable"
I was saying that Renteria is totally unpredictable, not to mention most predictions for him are not good at all. There would be upside to the deal if Renteria came at a price under the upper limit of his marginal win possibilities.
Edgar from 2007 would be worth maybe $15M per season. Edgar from 2008 is worth equal to or less than Izturis. Edgar ’08 is much more likely because players regress and keep regressing, especially middle infielders.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
What I would see as fine would be
1 yr 7M w/ 12M option, 1M buyout
That is 8M guaranteed with a 19M possible. I wouldn’t do more then that.
"People call me El Hombre," Pujols said. "But only Stan is the Man."
If you're Renteria...
Why would you agree to that deal? Only $8M would be guaranteed, and even if he has a league average year he’s not going to get his option picked up because it’s too much of a raise. The buyout would have to be around $4M to make that negotiable, at which point I’d almost rather have him at a 2Y$14M deal.
I’m not saying he’d agree to my proposal either, but at least in mine he’s guaranteed at least $12M, and if he took a one year deal, had a great season, he could parlay that into a 3 year deal worth $10M a year from someone in the NL after next season.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Renteria is a good of bounceback candidate as any
But I agree 2/18 is too much, either go 1/9, or 2/13
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
It's really nice that we can agree on something around here...
Kudos!!
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
The thing to be aware of re: Rhodes
is his splits vs. righties. They’re better than Ohman’s, BTW — .333 career OBP, .735 career OPS. This is relevant b/c Trever Miller should never be allowed to pitch to a righty so Rhodes, if signed, would have to at times. Maybe the fact that his career splits are better vs. righties should give him a leg up over Ohman who, generally, I like better. In any case, we’re not going to be able to have both lefty relievers avoid facing righties so, considering Miller’s woeful fecklessness vs. righties, those duties will occasionally (or should) fall upon the next lefty signed — likely Rhodes.
fecklessness
Just saying it makes me giggle. Kinda like “douchenozzle” (which is found next to Jason Marquis’ picture in the Baseball Encyclopedia, incidentally).
"A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann
by Futility Infielder on Nov 25, 2008 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
I Like Rhodes
I think that having Miller as LOOGY and Rhodes as Romero-type 7th/8th inning guy could work. If he signs here and Miller does too than I think that is a perfectly respectable pair of bullpen lefties. And it’s pretty cool that it boxes Flores out. He’s very very bad at pitching baseballs. He had more BBs than Ks for Pete’s sake!
That Vince Coleman line is so unbelievably ugly. Stealing bases was quite literally ALL he did well, and luckily for him he was brilliant at it.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 25, 2008 11:10 AM EST reply actions
You forgot about Coleman's capacity for annoying pitchers.
I remember a stat from 1986: through the All-Star break or thereabouts, something like one out of every 6 balks in the National League was called while Coleman was on base.
A guy who can bug pitchers that much must have some value beyond his gruesome OPS.
by StanTheManFan on Nov 25, 2008 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
In their neverending quest
to become the best damned baseball website out there, fangraphs has added wOBA to their long line of relevant stats. This has become the first place I go for baseball numbers.
Jason Isringhausen
There, I said it.
In the Rhodes piece by Goold, he mentions the Candyman who comes in the night and steals my hopes and dreams.
“What he would like to be is the closer for the Cardinals,” Horwits said. “He’ll have full clearance to be ready for spring training. As far as the closing question and the role, that’s something we’ll have to talk about.”
The Cardinals have mutual interest in Izzy and it appears Izzy isn’t content coming back and being the 7th inning guy. He wants to come back and do like he did in 2008, throw off the balance of the bullpen, cast a long shadow over the people that are in the role he believes is his and tear the very fabric of the time-space continuum.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 25, 2008 12:08 PM EST reply actions
Closers
Jayson Stark’s latest article indicates that there are probably more "established closers’ out there in the FA market than teams that are supposedly in the market for one. Izzy might be waiting a long time for an offer to close.
That market situation puts a team like the Cardinals, who sort of have internal options at closer, in a good place. If ST starts and Hoffman, Codero, and others are still sitting around without contracts, maybe Mo can swoop in with a 1-year deal for a guy to, in theory, “stabilize” the back of the pen (like Kyle Lohse last year for the rotation.) This lets Perez or Motte “grow” into a closer’s role (LaRussa, Duncan theory) while also providing hopefully fantastic 7th and 8th inning help.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Nov 25, 2008 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
The problem is that Lohse
came in to fill a hole in the rotation. He replaced our #5 starter and became our #2 starter (or #1 if you don’t count the fictional Opening Day).
With the bullpen, the fear is that if All-Time Saves leader Trevor Hoffman is signed, he will be handed the Closer’s role.
When it comes to the bullpen, we have to limit the toys Tony has to play with sometimes. He can’t help himself.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 25, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
So that's what happened last year at the trade deadline
We were limiting TLR’s toys by not signing any LOOGYs. I am glad that worked out for us last year. Sorry, I am being sarcastic. I am still miffed at Mo for not doing anything last season, e.g. signing Rhodes or anybody.
But back to your point, having Trevor close for one season while YP and Motte are getting more experience would not be that bad of an idea. But I see your point also. A successful eight inning guy does a closer not make. e.g. Mota. I don’t know why I am talking like Yoda today.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Filling a hole
Not sure what the “problem” is that you refer to….
But anyway, you refer to Lohse ‘filling a hole" in the rotation. That’s correct. What I’m saying is that there are surely some in the organization that see a simlar “hole” in the bullpen – the closer role. (not meant to ignite follow-up posts aobut Perez or Motte being the closer – the theory here is that Tony and Dave would rather have someone else at least for 2009, and that Mo might be able to get something for them at the 11th hour.)
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Nov 25, 2008 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
Right, but that's the problem
we don’t need to sign more RH relievers. We can find those in the minors or already on the roster.
Any money wasted on Jason Isringhausen or Trevor Hoffman is money that could have been spent at SS or 2B.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 25, 2008 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
It isn't an either or scenario though.....
Maybe we don’t need the extra $4M for a SS, maybe we can find somebody cheaper. Maybe even with the $4M, there isn’t anybody available.
We don’t have a sure thing to close game next year. I know some of you love Perez, but he isn’t a sure thing. Why not grab a guy, that if healthy (Izzy or Hoff) can go out and be a lock down 9th inning guy? You pitch Perez/Motte earlier in the game or in the setup role, and give them saves when Izzy/Hoff aren’t available.
I don’t see the downside. If Izzy/Hoff fail, you move them out of the closer’s role. Period. We don’t have to let a younger guy go to sign them. We don’t sign Springer.
Or heck, maybe we HAVE to part with one of Perez/Motte to land another piece…..that SS we need.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
I don't see the downside
did you close your eyes last year?
The downside is exactly what happened last year. We gave away games while Tony allowed Izzy to work through it. Then, he brought him back and gave him the closers role again for which he failed.
How many games are you willing to give up with Izzy as the closer until you pull the plug?
And now we are trading our young, cost controlled bullpen pitchers so we can spend $4M on ancient, injured relievers. Just so we can have a false sense of ‘comfort’ on March 31?
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 25, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
-2.97 WPA, 2nd lowest in the majors for relievers to be precise would be the downside
Replacing Izzy with just a below average reliever last year would be about equivalent to giving most teams K-Rod.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I think the hook would come a lot faster for Izzy in 2009
than it did in 2008. This past season he was coming off one of the more effective seasons in his career, and he actually started out ok in April before a horrific final two weeks of that month and a horrendous May. If he sucks that hard in ST or the early part of April he’ll be yanked out of that role quickly.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
See we agree!
There’s no way they’d let him do anything if he starts the year out poorly so he’d have to prove he has something left………..but if he follows the 2008 path TLR won’t be able to help himself——and couldn’t to the tune of -2.3 WXRL which is just stunningly terrible.
I can’t help but make more references to how terrible Isringhausen was last year I can’t get over it: just getting replacement level pitching instead of Isringhausen would be about the same difference in wins as trading Cesar Izturis for JJ Hardy.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I would think so too
but that fact is that 2006 should have been fresh enough in their minds so that the misery didn’t have to linger so long in 2008
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
whoa now
are you advocating signing Izzy/Hoff over Springer?
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
in what way is izzy still a "lockdown 9th inning guy"?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
Like
“Honey, like down the kids. It’s the 9th inning and Izzy is coming in. We can’t afford another parent/teacher conference about the words the kids keep saying to their teacher.”
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 25, 2008 8:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Problem
Do you agree with my assessment of what might happen or not? Whether it SHOULD happen is not what I’m talking about, and I thought I took pains to make that clear.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Nov 25, 2008 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
I understand what you are saying
Dave and Tony want someone else.
The thing is, don’t give them to them. They’ve shown repeatedly that if you give them a salty vet, they will use them in high leverage situations until the fans start raining garbage down on their heads.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 25, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
On that second point
I have to agree.
One final thing – another reason Mo might take the “11th hour” approach is that, like you said, SS and 2B deserve his primary attention, once this dance with a dozen LOOGYs ends. Hopefully, all that MI stuff is sorted out by March 1, and any sort of last-minute bullpen machinations are sort of icing on the cake.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Nov 25, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Isringhausen hasn't been a good pitcher since 2005.
I hope this isn’t true.
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
i guess you are forgetting 07?
dude was pretty good then
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
He was lucky in 2007, his BABIP against was in the .210s
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
he also only blew like 2 saves that season
sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
Actually it's the opposite
It’s better to be good rather than lucky. Much better.
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
Still posted a 3.76 FIP which is still "good"
He hasn’t been “great” in a few years, but he was definitely even without luck “good” in ’07.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
A 3.76 FIP was only good for 94th place among relief pitchers in 2007 with at least 10 innings pitched, though. He was 136th for 2007 RP tRA*, and his most recent sub-4 tRA* was in 2004.
He consistently beat his xOuts, his RA consistently beat his tRA
I’d wager to say there’s a decent chance he’s the anti-Javy Vazquez in that regard.
I’m not saying we should even sign him given LaRussa’s tendencies to trot him out there till the horse has been beaten all the way to the glue factory, but the guy can be useful for the right price/lack of any role guarantee.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I can't believe
none of you guys have used the headline Hawking a LOOGY
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 1:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I was mulling how to spell "hawk" in that sense of the term
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
I was too
then I decided to go with a play on words, and use hawk as the notion of mulling over LOOGYs. I think the other spelling is hock…
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
what about...
that guy from minnesota, nick punto, as a shortstop. I know he has experience playing ss, 3b and 2b. I’m not sure of his range or arm strength, but he seemed to get things done in minnesota. he shouldn’t be that expensive either…
http://www.redbirdramblings.wordpress.com
waiting for the 2009 season to begin and colby rasmus to patrol centerfield!
http://www.redbirdramblings.wordpress.com
heh
you said punto
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
i love how Bert Blylevan says his name
Nick PUUUUUUUUUUUUUUNNNNNNNTOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/puntoni01.shtml
Career .252/.319/.332 line, or 74 OPS+
Funny Jekyll & Hyde thing from year to year: 99 OPS+, then 52, then 90, then 68 for the last four years.
Smart money says he’s going to stink in 2009, IMO – it’s an odd year :)
rhodes
i’m glad that we are addressing our lefty needs but does it crack anyone else up how much of a spotlight is being shown on it.
if we were on the verge of signing furcal, or sabathia, or someone of that level i could understand the “made offer to” and “working on a deal” stories but for a loogy?
i expected the lefty roles to be filled but not with so much fanfare. i wonder if its an attempt to appease the fan base by showing a “we are doing stuff” attitude. maybe its just so slow right now that the writers are just reaching.
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
It bothers me that there is this much focus on the bullpen
in 2007 the bullpen was the team’s strength. In 2008, it was the death blow. The landscape shifts from one season to the next and I hope that Mozeliak isn’t operating under the assumption that repairing the bullpen will give us those extra wins from last year.
The Opening Day roation is
Wainwright
Lohse
Wellemeyer
Pineiro
Boggs/Carpenter/Thompson
That’s not a real starting rotation. Pineiro is awful, Lohse is likely to regress, Carpenter may never pitch well again.
The rotation still needs addressed in some way.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 25, 2008 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
They should target Randy Johnson
He’s worth $15m or so on a one year deal, and he probably won’t get that.
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
isn't Randy Johnson
washed up? or does he still have some life? I guess he can’t be worse than Pinata
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
oh wait
I forgot to read the opening day starting rotation… yikes
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
Randy Johnson kicked all kinds of ass last year.
Seriously he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
so if we got him and Furcal
it’d be a pretty successful offseason…
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
It would be a perfect offseason
(assuming we make a halfway decent under the radar pickup for a reliever)
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
a lefty would be great
but there’s enough talent in the system to build a bullpen without any acquisition
+1
I’d prefer that we don’t sign a single righy reliever and use the “see-what-sticks” approach for a LOOGY instead of overpaying for a reliever. I’d like for us to make a hard run at a one-year deal on the Unit.
"I'm gonna throw the nastiest curveball I have ever thrown...if he hits it, I'll tip my cap, but if not we're going to the Series."
--Adam Wainwright on the final pitch of the 2006 NLCS
This is usually true, but I would like some depth
because Motte and Perez have not pitched in afull season in the bigs before.
I wouldn’t mind Hoffman on a year deal assuming there was nothing better to spend the money on.
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
The way I see it
not using Franklin in high leverage situations, and Isringhausen’s departure virtually guarantee that the bullpen will be improved.
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
absolutely
and the guys returning from injury (which we saw some of at the end of last season)
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
I'm confused as to why everyone is concerned about the middle infield
yes, they couldn’t hit, but the defense was excellent.
And the Cards still had the 2nd best unadjusted OPS in the League.
While we can’t count on a Ludwick season again, it is pretty probable that one of our ~7 outfielders will be pretty outstanding and 2 more will be good.
The Cards obviously do need to sign somebody to fill the middle infield, but we don’t have to break the bank.
The Cards unadjusted pitching was in the middle of the league, and when you take into account the park and defense it was atrocious.
We need to fix both the starting rotation and the bullpen, first and foremost this offseason.
We can't count on Glaus
to be either that good defensively or that healthy all season.
Some might argue that the 2008 Cardinals offense and defense performed at it’s outermost outliers.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 25, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
at least
David Freese will be a great backup, if they use the guy
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Can he play elsewhere?
On a TLR team, it’s very rare to have a “backup” who can only play one position (except for backup C’s).
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Nov 25, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
well
if Glaus gets hurt, he can be a “callup”
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Right, but as Ankiel, Duncan
Kennedy (2007), Rolen 2007, etc. TLR wants his guys to gut it out for 2 months before relenting that they may not indeed be sissies.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 25, 2008 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
maybe he'll change
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
maybe the sun will rise in the west tomorrow
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
VEB needs to send an open letter to TLR
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
like the letter he sent to Rolen?
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
i would love to read that letter
scotty should send it to the hall of fame, to be put on display if TLR makes it in.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
Why not?
Glaus has always been a decent defensive thirdbaseman. Not only do the numbers say he was an asset their in 2007, but he looked good too.
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 5:04 PM EST up reply actions
Injuries
he’s had foot problems off and on, to go along with back problems that limit his range.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 25, 2008 8:03 PM EST up reply actions
although moving off the astroturf seemed to help him immensely
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 8:44 PM EST up reply actions
defensive flukiness
is just as possible as offensive flukiness. Both Kennedy and Izturis performed not only a little above their historical averages but way above their recent averages, defensively.
Hmmmm
I wonder how much of that was due to being flanked by Glaus and Pujols.
by Hal Lanier's Pants on Nov 25, 2008 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know......
Look at his DL stints: It screams hard to move with lower back and leg issues..
Disabled List: [Jul 5,2005] – 15 Day Disabled list – (strained hamstring) [Jul 15,2005] – Activated [Aug 28,2005] – 15 Day Disabled list – (sore lower back ) [May 28,2006] – Transferred to 60 day DL. [Jun 20,2006] – Activated [Aug 22,2006] – 15 Day Disabled list – (strained right hamstring) [Sep 11,2006] – Activated
Look at Izturis pre injury history (leg/back and tommy john)
2002-2004 Range factor= .868 (looks pretty good)
So in response to DanUpBaby, I don’t know if defense is fluky in that “talent” is lost. I would say defense is fluky in that you can’t control injury and some balls are just a step more out of your range certain years.
this is particularly true of Kennedy
I’ve been pimping last year’s defensive season for some time but it seems to be a tremendous outlier given all his previous seasons. It’s possible he suddenly became one of the top 2 or 3 defensive 2B in the game but it’s also possible that he’ll revert to form next year and be only slightly above average. If that’s the case, considering his awful offense, he’s not good.
He always had a good rep
for what’s that’s worth.
I honestly wouldn’t mind platooning Kennedy and Miles/or whomever as long as we brought in a solid player to play short. If kennedy’s defense is really that good (+19?), or even if it is +10 or so having him on a 1yr $m(?) deal is a good thing.
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's somewhere between $20 and $25 mil?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
Imagine if we had another 10m to play with
Damn you Kyle Loshe
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
But if you can net Johnson/Sheets at a yr @ $10m, and Furcal at 14-15 per
You’ve spent well.
Furcal
by JI on Nov 25, 2008 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
sounds good to me
it would definitely be interesting to have a SP staff with Carp and Sheets in it
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see Sheets, even w/ his injuries, coming in at $10M,
and I definitely see him as a three- or four-year deal, which would be even more unmanageable. Dempster seems like a decent comparison (4y at $52m). I don’t think the team could manage his money.
and yes, I think it would be interesting to have Carp and Sheets in the same rotation, but I don’t think I mean “interesting” in the same sense you do. I mean it in the “what part is going to break next?” sense.
Johnson at $10m is more realistic and would likely be a 1y deal.
if we could get sheets for 4/52
I’d jump on it. Damn the torpedoes.
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
I meant it in both senses
it would be interesting to see if they both stay healthy (which would be like balancing a nickel on your desk for hours), and also interesting if they did stay healthy, because that would be wicked awesome man
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 26, 2008 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
Max Carey - 1922
Looking at the Beyond the Box Score link, I was amazed to see that Max Carey with Pittsburgh stole 51 bases in 1922 and only caught 2 times. The fewest caught stealings I had ever seen before this for someone with over 50 stolen bases in a season was Jerry Mumphrey of all people with San Diego. He had 52 steals with only 5 caught stealings in 1980.
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
Jimmy Rollins
stole 47 out of 50 in 2008. Is that close enough?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Sizemore has a lot of beneficial stealing ability
had no idea just how good that kid is, I really think he should have gotten AL MVP
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
InVinceable and LOOGYs
I have nothing but good memories of Vince, besides getting run over. I remember Mike and JAck often making something of his low AVG/OBP, but the way he changed games was so much fun to watch- like the time Mario Soto threw over to first 13 times or so before delivering home, and then on the first pitch he threw Coleman stole second.
Sure, Miller and Rhodes aren’t the perfect choices, but given the demand in the market I’d be happy to have them. I think they will add substantially to the bullpen.
Coleman in Memphis
I saw Coleman with the Redbirds first team in 1998. He scored the only run in the Redbirds first home game at Tim McCarver Stadium against the Colorado Springs Sky Sox. He could still run in 1998. Coleman retired some time early in the season, when he didn’t get back to the big leagues.
"The big possum walks late." - Harry Caray
If we offer Springer arb, how much money would we be on the hook for if he accepts?
Like $4-$5 m?
Furcal
I would think that would be the range
He made $3.5M last season. That being said, I wouldn’t offer him arbitration — I’d just sign him to a one year deal for the same money he made last season. It’s well known he wants to stay in St. Louis and he will probably take less than he could get elsewhere to do that.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
He's type A
Unless he’s willing to come back at an insultingly low price you have to cut him loose.
My gut feeling is that if you offer him arb he’ll accept, and you’re spending $5m on a pitcher that’s not all that useful, and you won’t get those picks.
Furcal
by JI on Nov 26, 2008 2:57 AM EST up reply actions
I know I'm a day late, but...
Springer simply will not sign with another team, due to family reasons. He will retire. That makes the prospect of compensation picks useless.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
Right
That was what I was saying above: His son has a disorder or something and the best place to treat it is in the St. Louis area. He’d rather play for the Cardinals or not play at all.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
This gets brought up all the time,
Apparently, his family is living in Louisiana. His son only went to school here for one year. Springer just really likes the organization, I suppose.
hell, he likes it here
he is a stabalizing force in the bullpen
Give him 4-5 M already and have one less worry
* sarcasm might be involved in this comment
He strikes me as being more and more a ROOGY going forward
I won’t be too upset if he’s gone
Furcal
by JI on Nov 26, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
I won't be
upset if he stays, either. This is sort of a non-issue in terms of the Cards success next year.
Sure but when you can hold right handers to a sub .500 OPS
over a 3 year average, that’s a hell of a ROOGY esp. given the distribution of right handed players in the majors. He’s worth a 1 year 3-5M dollar deal. Let him walk the lefties he sees but he’s death on right handed hitters.
It all depends on whether it blows a hole in the budget
(God the Pineiro contract is stupid)
Furcal
by JI on Nov 27, 2008 4:38 AM EST up reply actions
so I just read that article at stlcardinals.com
Wallace is still tearing up the ladder. Luhnow says his defense is somewhere between passable to slightly above average, and imo I think he will stick at 3B…. which makes it quite possible we may see him on the Cardinals in ‘10, depending on what Freese does of course, who I think is also a player with a ton of potential. Tyler Greene also looks impressive, but I have no idea when he will make it, I’m guessing ’10 or ’11. Ottavino on the other hand…
also, it’s interesting that the cards are talking to rhodes. we might have the most improved bullpen in the major leagues if our young right handers impress.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 7:46 PM EST reply actions
Luhnow is talking his prospects up but there’s not a chance that Wallace is above average defensively.
Agreed
But if he’s average defensively with a plus-plus bat, which may be likely, he’s still going to be a plus at 3B.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
He better be able to ahndle third
I doubt he could unseat Pujols at first.
Furcal
by JI on Nov 26, 2008 2:58 AM EST up reply actions
Hell, move him to left.
Who cares if he can’t move? He has a strong arm, and Rasmus will be able to help him cover his range deficiencies.
Baseball's only fun if you're playing it, watching it, or thinking about it.
1) It was a joke.
2) Bad defender is a bad defender regardless of who is flanking him.
Furcal
by JI on Nov 26, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
I was being a little bit generous with the slightly above average comment
but the guy has quick reflexes for his size, and I think he’ll lose some of that weight by the time he makes it up… his defense could be a liability, but not so much that it would offset is offense by much
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
it seems that
he has already lost some. he seems to be smaller in the pictures in see now as compared to college picts.
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
you would think...
that with millions of dollars on the line he could lose all the weight in the world… theoretically.
Tell that to bob wickman.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
yeah
he has
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 26, 2008 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
Greene
If he doesn’t make it within the framework of the 2009 season, then I don’t think that he’s a candidate for the 40 man roster and should be left unprotected. We have Pete Kozma behind him who’s younger and looks to be just as skilled.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
You mean to tell me I wasted
all this money on this authentic Niko Vasquez jersey?
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 25, 2008 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
I think Greene will be the better hitter
over Kozma
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 25, 2008 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
let me file that in my,
unsubstantiated random internet person speculation file.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
well
we don’t have much to go on, and I’ve seen Kozma hit, and it didn’t impress me much. Tyler Greene on the other hand, actually has a decent OPS… but still, it is speculation sir
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 26, 2008 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
mean robot
I agree though. Greene has some tools, but isn’t one I’d wait around and plan for.
by Merry CRasmus on Nov 25, 2008 11:49 PM EST up reply actions
Despite my own snark,
I think Greene could bust out and solve a lot of our problems this year.
Or maybe i’m just deluded by my dream Greene-Greene keystone.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
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