True Value Part Duex
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 3, 2008 6:00 PM EST
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PrintI liked chuckb's idea about putting 'True Value' to each player I just didn't like the data he used. Instead of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) I used Total Value.
Total value (TotalValue) measures value above replacement level for position players, in runs. It is based on hitting (Runs Above Replacement; RAR), as well as a composite fielding measure (average runs saved according to zone rating and revised zone rating). This measure also includes adjustments for differences in difficulty among defensive positions, as well as differences in difficulty of leagues (AL>NL). Pitchers are rated via two measures—RAR (runs above replacement) and FIP-Runs. RAR measures actual value similar to total value for position players, whereas FIP-Runs is a defense-independent estimate of value. Closers receive a bonus reflecting the leverage of situations in which they pitch.
Now I broke down the values for the Cardinals and saved them to my own Google Doc's
Hitters
Pitchers
Now in the case of pitchers I used FIP-Runs because it is defense independent estimate.
Now it essentially takes 9.3 RAR to equal 1 WAR (Win Above Replacement). 9.3 is double the NL league run average per game. So I divided the Total Value by 9.3 than multiplied it by the $4.4 mil marginal win figure chuck used than subtracted the league min of $396,000. This left you with the True Value in $ terms.
As you can see their is some big differences between the two of our tables.
| Name | TotalValue | Value in $ | Salary | Value to team | WAR | Difference |
| Ankiel | 18.6 | $8.20 | $0.90 | $7.30 | $6.58 | $0.72 |
| Carp | 4.2 | $1.55 | $10.50 | -$8.95 | -$9.18 | $0.23 |
| Franklin | -5.4 | -$2.95 | $2.25 | -$5.20 | $0.83 | -$6.03 |
| Glaus | 37.8 | $17.49 | $12.50 | $4.99 | $2.02 | $2.97 |
| Izturis | 20.2 | $9.16 | $2.85 | $6.31 | -$4.17 | $10.48 |
| Izzy | -4.1 | -$2.29 | $8.00 | -$10.29 | -$12.40 | $2.11 |
| Kennedy | 18.2 | $8.21 | $3.50 | $4.71 | -$2.18 | $6.89 |
| KMac | 3.6 | $1.31 | $0.39 | $0.92 | $0.93 | -$0.01 |
| Lohse | 32.9 | $15.17 | $4.25 | $10.92 | $8.95 | $1.97 |
| Looper | 18.1 | $8.17 | $5.50 | $2.67 | $3.74 | -$1.07 |
| Lopez | 18.5 | $8.36 | $0.13 | $8.23 | $7.35 | $0.88 |
| Ludwick | 50.8 | $23.64 | $0.41 | $23.23 | $21.59 | $1.64 |
| Miles | 11.8 | $5.19 | $1.40 | $3.79 | -$.08 | $3.79 |
| Perez | 0 | $0.39 | $0.39 | $0.00 | $2.69 | -$2.69 |
| Pineiro | 10 | $4.34 | $5.00 | -$0.66 | -$5.00 | $4.34 |
| Pujols | 97.6 | $45.78 | $16.00 | $29.78 | $17.88 | $11.90 |
| Skip | 20.2 | $9.16 | $0.40 | $8.76 | $7.08 | $1.68 |
| Springer | 5 | $1.97 | $3.50 | -$1.53 | $1.34 | -$2.87 |
| Wainwright | 23.4 | $10.67 | $0.50 | $10.17 | $12.70 | -$2.53 |
| Wellemeyer | 17.7 | $7.98 | $1.00 | $6.98 | $12.20 | -$5.22 |
| Yadi | 19.1 | $8.64 | $1.75 | $6.89 | $7.05 | -$0.16 |
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all this proves to me
is that Izzy needs to go!
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 3, 2008 5:11 PM EST reply actions
again, cool stuff
How about comparing which players are valued the most differently by Win Shares and Justin’s value stat? That would be a simple way to show where Win Shares possibly misses the boat.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
that first column should be Total Value, not TrueValue, right?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
hardware problem?
heh heh. i kid…
this is all really cool stuff. this kind of approach, regardless of which system is more accurate or correct (which is beyond my current understanding) has been a really effective way to remind me of the importance of defense, as it is tempting to ignore defensive info when one is a stat amateur.
I thought you were doing that on purpose trying to be funny
heh
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 4, 2008 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
I have some skepticism
about the defensive side of the equation. Are there any explanations on the methodology?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
It is a combo of
Fielding measures are based on the average runs saved according to zone rating (ZR) and revised zone rating (RZR). Than their is a +- for Positional Adjustments.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 3, 2008 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
More in Depth
Player Value, Part 1: General Principles
Player Value, Part 2a: Offense – Run Estimation
Player Value, Part 2b: Offense – Baselines
Player Value, Part 2c: Offense – Positional Adjustments
Player Value, Part 3a: Fielding Performance Estimators
Player Value, Part 3b: Comparison of Fielding Statistics
Player Value, Part 3c: Fielding – Catchers
Player Value, Part 4: Position Player Wrap-Up
Player Value, Part 5a: Pitchers
Player Value, Part 5b: Leverage and Relievers
Part 6: Accounting for league differences
That should be enough info to blow your mind for awhile
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 3, 2008 7:22 PM EST up reply actions
OK, so I guess this makes me easily frustrated
but I can’t seem to locate current year PMR or UZR data. Any help?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
They haven't been published for 2008 yet.
I don’t know if MGL will release it as a single file at all. PMR will be released later I would think
OK
I am trying to do some sanity checks on a couple of numbers. I especially don’t get how Holliday can be rated so much higher than Ludwick when their RZR numbers are nearly identical. I understand that RZR is not a component of Justin’s system, but given the correlations he published between the various methods I just don’t get how Holliday can be a +8.1 and Ludwick is a -0.8.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
maybe because luddy spent time in CF?
Also, holliday was a LF and luddy a RF, so they are compared against different players? I don’t know, just throwing out ideas. Too tired to try to click links right now.
the enemy's gate is down.
The difference between LF and RF
for fielding is surprisingly small according to MGL and Tango. Could it be the field configuration for Coors? Does it have a favorable LF size versus STLs RF?
It could also be that Ludwick really isn’t that good of a fielder.
Coors is pretty symmetric, no?
I seem to remember that it is this giant symmetric cavern.
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
Hmmm
Ludwick’s combined RZR numbers for all three OF positions are:
261 BIZ, 241 Plays, 53 OOZ, .923 RZR, 12 Assists, 3 Errors, (Plays+OOZ)/BIZ =1.13
Holliday in LF only:
210 BIZ, 190 Plays, 50 OOZ, .905 RZR, 10 Assists, 3 Errors, (Plays+OOZ)/BIZ =1.14
Odd that Holliday had 51 less BIZ in 34 more innings.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
CHONE Predicts
That Ludwick next year will a +1 Corner OFer and -8 CFer next year
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 3, 2008 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
Holliday/Ludwick rate the same by the Fans, surprisingly (to me)
http://tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2008.html
Holliday has consistently rated in the +8 runs in LF range over the past few years by this same combined zone rating metric. (And similarly by UZR and PMR)
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
RZR IS a part of Justin's system, but he also includes OOZ plays
And then he averages that with STATS’ zone rating. (RZR is from Baseball Info Solutions).
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Don't take this as a pejorative
but you comment on a ton of blogs — is this a full time job for you or do you have a lot of free time?
he's omniscient
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 4, 2008 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
doesn't he run beyond the box score?
maybe he just has one of those jobs where he’s in front of a computer most of the day, making it easy to drop in on the various blogs every hour or two… like a certain poster whose name rhymes with “battymomo”
The way I read Justin's stuff
is he uses 37.5% UZR, 37.5% PMR and 25% FSR. RZR is highly correlated with UZR, but not used per se. Please let me know if this in not correct.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
he doesn't do that for his in-season stats, no
I believe that combination was his “ideal” rating, if he had it all available. UZR isn’t available after 2006 and PMR/FSR aren’t available until a month or two after the season.
the stats he has available are an average of STATS and BIS zone ratings. (BIS zone rating is RZR from THT including OOZ plays). yay for acronyms.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Now I really don't get
the discrepancy between Holliday and Ludwick. Can the STATS and BIS numbers be that different?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I think that people have found significant differences
between the two although I forget who the analyst was.
So what should a guy do?
I am inclined to return to this discussion in a few years when technology has allowed for improved data collection. What I draw from this article is that quite a bit of objective analysis is wrapped around an inherently subjective dataset.
It sounds like fielding metrics are basically not particularly useful for evaluating any positions except middle infield. There is certainly nowhere near the certainty of value as can be derived from offensive numbers.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Certainly the fielding numbers have larger error bars
But that doesn’t mean they should be ignored.
One thing to keep in mind about the difference in data sources is that STATS and BIS use different zones. So not all of the difference is subjectivity in recording location. A ball hit to the far side of an easy-to-field BIS zone might be recorded as a ball hit to the near side of a hard-to-field STATS zone. By combining the two systems, those imbalances tend to even out.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
And the zones don't take defensive shifts into account, ya?
so if La Russa is consistently using bad defensive shifts versus the COL manager, then it might make it look like Ludwick’s looking bad in his zone, but picking up more OOZ plays.
Or am I wrong?
They say that it's never too late, but you don't get any younger...
I should have been more specific
This particular exercise where offensive metrics and defensive metrics are combined and given equal legitimacy to arrive at some allegedly objective salary value for a player is flawed.
I feel like I could make fairly accurate judgments on the worth of an offensive player, but for OFs and corner IFs there just isn’t enough reliability in the data to make that translation.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
baseball think factory
has their Final 2008 Offense Plus Defense (OPD) stats available.
blogpen / sabermetrics / 10-20-2008
if anyone wanted to compare the two spreadsheets
Interesting
to see how Justin and Chris differ on certain players. For example, Justin has Skip at 20.2 and Chris is at -5.7. That would be below every other Cardinal OF except Stavinoha. I do like that he has Albert at 75.7 and Ryan Howard at 7.2, or 4.7 below Joey Votto. Nice to see that gold glover McLouth with a defensive rating of -10.5.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
baseball musings
has their team PMR stats available.
by position, SS is available.
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