2009 Marcel Projections

The marcel projections are so good that it's making me reconsider my subscription to BP. The difference between Marcel and PECOTA is something like the difference between an 81 and an 82-83 win team. It's marginal at best. If you know how to calculate WAR based off of wOBA or pitching ERA, then you are set. Plus, these are available at Fangraphs and are sortable.

7 months ago azruavatar Comment 4 comments 0 recs |

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Calculating WAR

I’ve got a handle on how to calculate WAR for hitters…

To convert wOBA for a hitter into wins: (wOBA – .338) / 1.15 * 700 / 10.5 will give you wins above average. (The .338 is whatever the league average wOBA is, which is EXACTLY equal to whatever the league average OBP is; 1.15 is the relationship between wOBA and runs; 700 is the number of PA per 162 games; 10.5 is the relationship between runs and wins.)

…but I got a little lost on calculating it for pitchers. Based on the Marcel Pitcher projections, can we piece together WAR?

by lightbulb on Nov 18, 2008 5:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

And thanks in advance, of course

by lightbulb on Nov 18, 2008 5:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a simple approach

Read this article or go back and check out my post on Burnett. It’s just using FIP or ERA to calculate runs allowed above replacement level and then converting to wins.

Note 1: The Burnett evaluations are pretty similar here. Dave and I set out with different baselines (he’s using replacement level, I’m comparing to Lohse) but 3.5 wins is about what I’d value Burnett at for next season.

Note 2: I think a 4.50 ERA for reliever replacement level is pretty sketchy. I usually set that replacement level closer to 5.00.

by azruavatar on Nov 19, 2008 8:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs