Will Ohman and FA lhrp's

by ball in play on Nov 17, 2008 2:35 PM EST

joe strauss reported the cardinals have made an offer to will ohman. why?

he's the only lhrp stl has made an offer to that i have seen reported. in an effort to understand the orgs reasoning, i will share the research i have done. not that it answers why, but these stats could be behind their offer.

here is a list of the FA lh relievers, their 08 team, and compensation status. using baseball prospectus quality of batters faced (OPS) and each pitchers OPS allowed results from 2008.

the difference column to sort results. negative result (-) has the pitcher holding his batters OPS below what they (batters) did vs mlb. a positive result (+) is the pitcher allowing a higher OPS to his batters, than what they (batters) did vs mlb.

......................................OPS...............OPS.............OPS

2008..............................faced..........allowed..........diff..........IP..........FA type

a. rhodes.............fla......782...............524..........-.258..........13.............B

..............................sea....770...............590..........-.180..........22.............B

b. fuentes............col.....743...............570..........-.173..........62.............A

w. ohlman...........atl......766...............640..........-.126..........58.............no pick*

d. reyes..............min......761...............658..........-.103..........46............B

b. shouse..........mil........747..............656..........-.091...........51...........B

j. beimel.............lad........746..............671..........-.075...........49...........B

d. oliver...............laa........746..............682..........-.064...........72...........A

j. affeldt...............cin........746..............733..........-.013...........78...........B..................................signed 2 yrs/8 mil with giants 11-17-08

a. embree..........oak.......774..............769..........-.005...........61...........B

c. manning...was/stl......781*.............782..........+.001..........42...........team control

r. villone..............stl.........750..............754..........+.004..........50...........no pick

t. miller................tb..........763..............787..........+.024..........43...........B

c. fossum............det.......754..............806..........+.050...........41..........no pick

r. flores................stl.........725..............883..........+.158...........25..........team control

three things stand out for me. ohman's no compensation status, mannings quality of batters faced and flores VERY poor results vs. a very low quality of batters faced.

rhodes lack of innings and fuentes expected contract $, make ohman the first choice by OPS difference and compensation status.

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Comments

Just as a matter of current events

Affeldt reportedly has inked a two-year deal with the Giants…so you can cross him off the list.

by mojowo11 on Nov 17, 2008 3:23 PM EST reply actions

thanks

i’ll wait for mlb.com to confirm a transaction and add each players signing to the right.

by ball in play on Nov 17, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

Other thoughts

I like the idea of picking up a left handed starter that another team would like to dump. I don’t think we would have to trade much, and might be able to get a trading partner to pick up some salary, too.

Some names that have been thrown around as available include Kei Igawa, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis. I have not looked at their splits, but guys start because they have multiple pitches and teams believe they have the potential to get both left handers and right handers out. Any of these guys could start in a pinch, too. Just an idea.

by Toddius on Nov 17, 2008 3:59 PM EST reply actions

Just to clarify

I think these guys are potential relievers, not starters.

by Toddius on Nov 17, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

If we had a true LOOGY on the roster

I would be thrilled with that idea, but we don’t have a good one on the current roster. I think we’ve got to have a one out guy who can come in situationally before we go looking at someone who could go an inning or two. We have a guy, McClellan, who was awfully tough against lefties last year, so I’m not sure it’s wise to give up a great situational lefty for one that can go an inning+ or spot start.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Nov 17, 2008 4:29 PM EST up reply actions

Dontrelle Willis

Seems to me he could still make a good spot starter and possibly a number five guy.. He’s only 26 and he has shown good stuff in the past and he could regain it, but it would be a big gamble.

by wizardofozzie on Nov 17, 2008 5:03 PM EST up reply actions

contract is terrible

detroit would have to eat a ton of it

by VolsnCards5 on Nov 17, 2008 6:47 PM EST up reply actions

4 mil per

seems to be the going rate on quality lh relievers. marte signed a 3yr/12 mil w/yankees. affeldt a 2yr/8 mil w/giants.

by ball in play on Nov 17, 2008 9:03 PM EST reply actions

3 mil per

might be enough then, considering that Affeldt’s value was a little higher based on his non-LOOGY like versatility and that the Yankees overpay for everyone. Lets’ give him 3 year/9 million.

by BustaCard on Nov 18, 2008 8:14 AM EST reply actions

Give who?

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Nov 18, 2008 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

oh-man

by vivaelpujols on Nov 18, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions

Swiper no swiping

Is anyone else subjected to watching Dora because of kids? Actually, it’s not that bad. Barney was another thing altogether.

born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red

by totalloser on Nov 18, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

Look at Rhodes

Quality of batters faced highest on the list, still the best OPS-diff on there.

I’d take Ohman and Rhodes. Rhodes is old, so might be cheap on a one-year deal…I believe he made league minimum last year.

by mojowo11 on Nov 18, 2008 7:39 PM EST reply actions

good post

had no idea that rhodes was that good

this line is dedicated to '09

by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 18, 2008 8:02 PM EST reply actions

beimel is such a weird duck

not only did he give up ZERO home runs in 2008, and only 1 in 2007, but he also gave up zero infield flies. Every fly ball hit against him was to the OF, but none was hit over the fence.

And 14% of the hits against him were infield hits- that seems high, for a loogy.

god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs

by SleepyCA on Nov 19, 2008 12:10 AM EST reply actions

Who was his 08 team?

maybe they had a crappy infield.

For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!

by miniboscorino on Nov 19, 2008 10:21 PM EST up reply actions