Also some thoughts about trades. We have discussed getting Dan Uggla before, but now that Escobar and Johnson are off the market and Rafael Furcal appears to be unnatainable right now for contractual reasons, i think that trading for Uggla is the best option to improve our team.

To get Uggla from the Marlins we would have to package Ludwick with either Freese or Anderson. Trading for Uggla would improve our offense a lot. Despite the fact that Ludwick will probably put up better numbers than Uggla, the difference in production of Uggla and our current second base position would more than make up the difference b/t Luddy and the combo of Mather/Rasmus/Duncan and Schumacher that would replace Luddy’s playing time.

After the trade we should sign Hoffman to a 1 or 2 year deal giving time for Young Pitcher and Motte to get ready for the job. Then we should sign Affeldt and Brian Shouse as our LOOGY’s. Affeldt pitched nearly 80 innings this year so he is really more of a setup man than a LOOGY, he has the stuff to beat both righties and lefties consitently, but he also has the big sweeping curve to shutdown lefties. Shouse is great against lefties but terrible against righties. That being said he is on the wrong side of 40 and will probably be really cheap. If we would only use Shouse as a LOOGY and Affeldt as more of a setup man than both guys would have great years.

As for the starting rotation, I think we should move McClellan there because he really doesn’t fit into our bullpen plans. I would like to see what kind of starter he would be in the future, and he is also much better than our current 5 hole starter, Piniero.

now that the Padres have a SS or we could still get escobar from them

He is a free agent to be, he is a lefty and he shouldn’t cost much. He has always been a good strikeout pitcher and he eats up innings. If we could get him for 3 years at 4-5 mil a year, than that would be perfect.

I’ve not encountered a slowdown until 700-800 comments.

apparently the cubs acquired kevin gregg… i wonder if this to to trade with the padres as their replacement for hoffmann?

and speaking of the padres, apparently they “aren’t even close” to dealing peavy and atlanta has a deadline.

Nick Swisher to the Evil Empire

I highly doubt Wolf signs for 7-8 mil per year. Jeff Suppan signed for 10 mil per a year ago. And Wolf is a lefty which will bring a hefty sum.

What about Brad Penny? Here’s a case why:

1. In 2007, he had the 8th-highest ratio of ground balls to fly balls in the league. Hmm, I wonder what Dave Duncan likes in a pitcher…
2. He’s a Type B free agent, so you’re not giving up your #1 draft pick.
3. He is coming off an injury-plagued 2008, but he was close to coming back at the end of the year. He might be willing to take a reasonable $ one-year flier, which would give the Cards time to figure out what’s up with Carp. LA declined his $9.5 option (partially to free up Manny $), so he probably could be had for less than that.
4. He was a horse for LA in 2007, throwing 200 innings with a 3.03 ERA. He has a respectable 4.06 career ERA.
5. He shut down the Yankees in the 2003 World Series.

You figure Jocketty has to be circling on this one. If you want to save Ankiel for a middle infielder, I think this is the move Mo should make.

but the GG and SS have become damn popularity/big media market contests.

i think he could be mighty effective in a non-closer’s role…

Meaning Ankiel, Raz, Ludwick, Schu and Mather. Say we go into next year with a starting OF of Ank, Luddy and Raz. We would have two above average OF on the bench, Schu and Mather, that would still get a lot of playing time with the way TLR like to use his bench guys. 4 of the guys are under team control for at least 3 years, the only one who isn’t is Ankiel. I know that we have talked about trading Ank because we have a lot of good young OF, he is gonna be a FA after this year and he is injury prone. However, Ank wouldn’t get us much in a trade because those reasons. When he was healthy last year, he was an exceptional player offensively and defensively. If we keep him for next year and he gets injured, than we still have Schu and Mather who could adequately replace him. If we keep him and he has stays healthy and has a big year than he would help our team win. And then if we let him walk after 09 than we would still have excellent outfield depth to replace him.

As for filling our bullpen and MIF needs we could do so without trading those top 5 outfielders. I would personally take a risk on Greene of the Padres. He is excellent defensively, has a ton of potential offensively and the Padres are looking to trade him and dump his salary due to the fact that he had a miserable offensive year. We could probably get him straight up for Anderson and Allen. Neither of those two players has any place in the Cards future, Anderson is blocked by Molina and Allen by Freese, Wallace and Glaus. I would bet that the Greene would hit close to his 07 numbers because he would be surrounded by a good offense and hitting in a more hitter friendly park.

Our bullpen is actually very deep with Kinney, Perez and Motte all figuring to pitch full seasons. Those three players alone would turn our terrible bullpen last year into a pretty good one even without a closer. Obviously we need to sign some LOOGY’s as that was a huge problem for us last year. I would advocate signing Affeldt and Shouse, but there are 4 or 5 lefty’s on the FA market who could all fit our needs. They would probably sign for about 3 years for about 3-4 mil a year. We would still then have a lot of payroll slack to go after a good closer. I like Hoff who wouldn’t cost much and would probably sign for 1 or 2 years. He would be a great bridge to Perez, Motte or Kinney to take his place. Plus he could really help our young pitchers to get better by that time. Just by those 3 factors alone our bullpen would go from one of worst in the league to one of the best.

As for our starting rotation, it looks OK at the moment. I would personally move McClellan to the rotation because he probably won’t fit into our bullpen next year and he would be a definite improvement over Piniero. We would go into next year with a rotation of WW, Carp, Lohse, Welly and K-Mac. We would have very good depth barring an injury with Piniero, Thompson, Boggs and Todd in the minors.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

what’t taking him so long?? what’s he waiting on???

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!

Aaron Herr..the son of our own Tommy Herr. He is a minor League free agent (was with the Reds minor leagues). So we could sign him VERY cheap and who knows to some he might be considerd an upgrade over Kennedy at 2nd at least in the HR/RBI dept. Maybe not so much in average. Herr hit .221 in the minors last year. He did have 11 Hrs and 40 rbi. with a 263/.383/.646 Line…(not real pretty I know). He at least might be worth taking a flyer on for a chance in the minors. But he would have to get his on base percentage up and his average up to really be considered. It’s probably just me rooting for Tommy’s son more than anything…but I thought it might be worth a post.

Minor league SS for the Phils. I was looking at his minor league numbers and they are pretty impressive. After a 1000+ abs his line is .296/.384/.458/.842. and his strikeout and walk rates (.197 and .110) are comparable to Colby’s (.200 and .111), albeit he hasn’t yet played above AA. I am not for sure how strong his defense is. He is blocked at SS by Rollins, and now the Phils are trying to find him a new position. I’m no scouting wiz or anything and I didn’t see Donald on any top prospect list going back a few years, but does anyone know if the kid is legit? Or, does anyone know if there is a big mark against him?

The Phils were supposedly in the Matt Holliday mix for a while, and I’ve seen Donald’s name w/ their top prospect Carrasco as part of Philadelphia’s package to acquire Matt. Shouldn’t the Cardinals be able to pull a similar package from Philadelphia if we offered up Luddy, given the fact that he’s A. infinitely cheaper than Holliday B he’d be under team control for 3 more years as opposed to just 2009 and C. put up comparable (if not better) offensive numbers.

I wonder if something like Ryan Ludwick, Allen Craig and maybe another piece (Boggs?) would work for Donald, Joe Blanton and Jayson Werth?

Give up: A cost controlled top 5-10 masher who, because of injuries, completed his first full season as a 30-year old. In a hitters park like Philly’s, he’d kill. Likely due 4-5 Mil in arbitration. Two top organizational prospects, one (Craig) who is blocked by other players at 3b.

Get: Young SS with a good bat, could be a part of our middle infield for a long time. 29-year old outfielder with a good bat and +speed and defense. Arbitration eligible, 3-4 Mil? I don’t know what he’s due. Back rotation starter, innings eater (205/year for 4 years) and is also arbitration eligible (he made 3.7 mil this year). I am not huge on Blanton, but he is equal to/better than Looper and likely cheaper, at least for this year.

I don’t know, this whole offer could be absurd, but I couldn’t help myself. Feel free to vivisect it as you wish. I’m only trying to get the feel of things around here.

We really don’t have much to offer in terms of a young starter the Padres want in a deal, which is why it is unrealistic to expect to pull it off. But Ryan Ludwick seems to have been shopped aggressively this offseason, being mentioned in two trade rumors already. I think we aren’t asking for enough for Ludwick, so maybe Mo values him less than I do, but here’s what I propose.

Tampa Bay receives OF Ryan Ludwick
The Rays have a need for a power bat in RF, but though they won the AL Pennant they are still in a small market and will appreciate Luddy’s affordable contract.

San Diego receives P Wade Davis, SS Reid Brignac, OF Daryl Jones and P Mitch Boggs.
San Diego gets the young pitcher they desire and a few decent prospects to boot. I consider this offer to be way better than the one the Braves are said to be waiting on. I suppose you could flip Davis and Sonnanstine if you think the Padres would take less upside for someone who could succeed there right now, but Davis might really intrigue them more.

St. Louis receives:
P Jake Peavy

So. 1. Would the Rays give up Davis and Brignac for Ludwick? I think so, given they’ve both lost a little stature this past year.

2. Would the Padres consider this deal over the one the Braves are offering? I think yes, they are getting the pitching prospect the Braves are not offering, plus a pitcher in Boggs who I think can be as good as either Morton or Reyes in time and could eat innings for a youthful staff; then there’s Jones who offers mostly everything Hernandez does except less arm strength and more power.

3. Would we give up a quality OF who might regress to an .850 OPS instead of .900+, an emerging OF prospect who’s athleticism is a good fit in San Diego’s spacious outfield and is in somewhat of a logjammed OF picture in St. Louis, and a durable, reliable starter who is nearly major league ready, for an ace who will be cheap for this year, then expensive when Glaus comes off the books? What is Ryan Ludwick’s true trade value(is the alleged Matt Holliday near-deal any indication)?

Thoughts?

Aparentally the Angels would be willing to shop him for the right offer. I really like his skill set; he has great speed, very good defensively and he has a ton of upside. He is also is a switch hitter. I think that he would fit beautifully into are lineup, batting 9th where his base-stealing speed would be more appreciated, because we want high OBP and not necessarily great speed in the 1 and 2 spots because of Albert. He would definitely be a upgrade over Caesar with the potential to be really good and he would be cost controlled for 4 more years. The only question is what would we have to give the Angels to get him. I think that trading Freese and Boggs would be enough to get him. The Angels are still looking for a long term 3B man and Freese is just about major league ready. The would also like the depth that Boggs would provide to there rotation.
Any thoughts people?

ap is a risk for next year one way or another, which is why i’d make next year’s gamble k greene. some combo of low level prospects +/- a few bucks get’s it done. more inclined to do this than take a pitching risk. overall problem is paying carp and trying to cover his absence is going to be the same as mulder and juan gone past year. tough to go only with expensive multi-year risks like furcal.

We would only need to sign him for 1 year unlike any other closer out there, which would allow for Perez and Motte to take over in 2010. He has some track record as a closer, and the fact that he would only throw 60-70 innings would probably allow him to throw harder than he has in a few years.

Derek Lowe wants FIVE freaking years?!?

I’ll start with the least imposing acquisitions and gain steam.

1) I’d offer arby to Braden Looper and pay him (around $6-8 million?)

2) After a couple of months of searching for a job, without success, Edgar Renteria signs for 2 years and $11 million to start at 2nd base and back up SS. Kennedy is still the 2B backup/starter when the everyday SS starts.

3) I’d offer Randy Johnson a 1-year $6.5 million deal with an incentive of $1 million more for making either 30 starts or 200 IP.

4a) Jeremy Affeldt was my top FA Loogy pick until I looked at his stats and $. He made $3 million last year and was worse against lefties than righties. He only had a 1.33 or so WHIP for the last two years (which were EASILY the best of his career.) I’ll pass. I’d offer Will Ohman 3 years worth $7.5 to 9 million.

4b) That being said about Affeldt before, I think he is a lefty that could eat a ton of innings for us next year. If he would take a 2 year deal worth $4 million, I’d sign him. If not, no deal…I’ll stick with TJ or Manning or Flores. I think those are three OK options to start with in spring training for your 2nd Loogy.

5) Trade Rick Ankiel (after all that has been said about Ludwick and Ankiel on here this off season, I think this is the best bet) to Atlanta for your starting SS, Yunel Escobar. If it takes a couple of throw ins to get it done (Duncan or Stavinoha or Jay or Mortenson or Thompson or Pineiro (eating contract) or Parisi, etc.) then do it.

6) Sign Kerry Wood to a 2-year, $11 million contract.

That’s my take. (Backup plans would include Jamie Moyer for a year, Jon Garland for 2, Beimel, Mota, Izzy, Miles, Eck, Iz2)

I simply can’t shake the thought of having Peavy in the rotation. I really think this would be the differance maker the Cardinals need to put them over the top. We can talk all we want about Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar, Matt Holiday, and Edgar Renteria. We can talk about the possibily of Rasmus emerging as the everyday centerfielder. But no matter how you cut it…if you replace Joel Pineiro’s 6-8 wins with 16-20 wins from Peavy the division is ours for the next season and we’d have to be considered the favorite in the national league. Meanwhile if the Cubs get him…we are done, as an already good team will get even better. If we flip Rasmus to San Diego he’ll struggle to put up serious offensive numbers and this will look like a steal. Maybe I’m dilusional, but it just seems like a perfect match.

If the Cubs don’t get Peavy or resign Dempster, they want Randy. Boo!!!!!!! I want Randy in a Cards uni.

I am still in awe at the their extreme desperateness to create the perfect team.

If you look at his last 3 seasons lefties have hit 194/.296/.329 against him. Also the combination of Ryan Howard and Adam Dunn hit a combined 1 for 12 against him with 7 K’s. The reason that his numbers looked so bad this year is the fact that he had to face a lot more righties than a typical LOOGY would. I think because of last years numbers we might be able to keep him for next to nothing. If we do that we would also have to sign a guy like Affeldt who can pitch to righties and lefties so we don’t end up overusing Villone like we did this year.

My heart sank every time one of our lefties came in.

Am I the only one who sees in Hudson the spectre of another Junior Spivey — i.e., an over-30 second baseman with an All-Star appearance on his resume & some decent pop in his bat, but who is now going down the road of chronic injury and a decline in skills? I’m not saying Hudson has reached the low point that Spivey had by the time we took a flier on him in the spring of ’06 — just noting the possible similarities, and wondering if anyone else shares my fear that if we spend considerable money on Hudson he will be a bad investment…

Affeldt to the Giants

if anything, that seems underpaid. think of it this way: we would have a lefty who could be a LOOGY, setup man, long reliever, or starter. Tony would pee himself if Mo signed him. His market value is probably close to 2/10.

Just checked MLB trade rumors and it looks like they are close to re-signing Dempster and are still looking to get Peavy or sign Randy Johnson. PLUS they "could’ be in the mix for Furcal.

Looks like they are trying to go all out to get to the World Series. It amazes me how they are going to keep adding to payroll and they don’t even have a new owner yet. But I am guessing whoever will own the team won’t really care much about the giant payroll for the first 3-5 years anyways. I’m not sure if their spending is now a product of desperation to finally get to a World Series or spending because they know they won’t have to worry about paying for these deals because new ownership will take over and they will put these contracts in their lap. Kind of like using your parent’s credit card and not having to worry about paying the debt because you know in the end you won’t be responsible for it.

lists some LOOGY trade prospects (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/11/cards-focused-o.html) today. I don’t know where TIm Dierkis gets the info but some of the names are interesting. George Sherrill from the O’s would be a pretty valuable super-LOOGY. If I may rehash my favorite idea of the offseason, why don’t we send a package to the O’s for Sherrill and Brian Roberts? Maybe Perez and Ankiel? Kennedy, Motte and Jones? Shumaker, Kennedy, Boggs? What do others think, and please, if anyone can tell me for sure that Roberts is not available I could stop wasting so much time daydreaming.