What's Rick worth?
by chuckb on Nov 13, 2008 7:00 AM EST
in St. Louis Cardinals News
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PrintBelow are 2 lists of players. All are outfielders who have either signed free agent contracts or contract extensions since the 2006 season ended. I excluded any OFs who signed long-term contracts with their teams while still under their team’s control since their ability to negotiate freely was limited while under their teams’ control. That excluded people like Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, and one Matt Holliday. The first list below is one of center fielders, or those who have played CF in the past and have been called on to play CF after their contracts were signed. The second list is of corner OFs. Since Ankiel could possibly be classified as either (and undoubtedly will be sold to teams as having the ability to play either RF or CF) I found it prudent to evaluate both groups. Age is their age in their 1st season after the contract was signed. WSAB (1) and (2) are the WSAB for the final year of the previous contract and the year prior to that year.
| CF | Age | Years | $ | WSAB (1) | WSAB (2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathews, Jr | 31 | 5 | 50 | 9 | 2 |
| Hunter | 31 | 5 | 90 | 12 | 7 |
| V. Wells | 28 | 7 | 126 | 13 | 9 |
| Ichiro | 33 | 5 | 90 | 20 | 11 |
| Cameron | 35 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| Edmonds | 37 | 2 | 19 | 5 | 18 |
| Byrnes | 32 | 3 | 30 | 13 | 4 |
| Pierre | 29 | 5 | 44 | 2 | 1 |
| Rowand | 30 | 5 | 60 | 10 | 0 |
| A. Jones | 31 | 2 | 36 | 4 | 12 |
| Avg | 31.7 | 4 | 55.2 | 9.7 | 8 |
| COF | Age | Years | $ | WSAB (1) | WSAB (2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giles | 35 | 3 | 30 | 23 | 11 |
| Drew | 31 | 5 | 70 | 10 | 7 |
| Soriano | 31 | 8 | 136 | 16 | 4 |
| Dye | 34 | 2 | 22 | 2 | 7 |
| Sheffield | 38 | 2 | 28 | 1 | 21 |
| Guillen | 32 | 3 | 36 | 8 | -1 |
| Bradley | 30 | 1 | 5.25 | 7 | 6 |
| Matsui | 33 | 4 | 52 | 3 | 13 |
| Ibanez | 35 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 8 |
| Alou | 40 | 1 | 8.5 | 8 | 11 |
| Lee | 31 | 6 | 100 | 12 | 11 |
| Winn | 33 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 9 |
| Avg | 33.6 | 3.3 | 43.5 | 8.8 | 8.9 |
Overall, the average age of these 22 players was 32.7 years old. Ankiel will turn 30 in his first season after signing his contract. The average contract length was 3.62 years and the average $ amount was $48.7 M. There seems to be a threshold at about 34 years old. Players 34 and older tend to get 1-2 year deals, for obvious reasons. Players younger than 34 get contracts ranging from 3-8 years w/ a couple of exceptions (A. Jones, Bradley). The players 33 and younger averaged 4.5 years and $63M per contract – about $14 M per season.
The point here is to try and get a sense of what Ankiel’s value will be on the market at the end of the season. Considering the fact that Rasmus will be making less than $1 M, and we’ll have Skip, Mather, Jay, and maybe Duncan and Daryl Jones, will resigning Ankiel be a prudent investment after 2009? If not, maybe now is the time to trade him for a young middle infielder or SP. After all, it’s not even that clear that he’ll be a type-A free agent at the end of the season, meaning that we’d end up only w/ a supplemental 2nd rounder, as opposed to the first round pick and supplemental 1st rounder we would get if he was type-A.
Last year Ankiel was 5 WSAB – clearly a notch below most of these guys. However, that’s largely based on the fact that he got injured later in the season. Playing time, rather than ineffectiveness, is largely to blame for him being at just 5 WSAB. (Note: I didn’t use Justin Inaz’s total value numbers since I needed stats from prior to the ’08 season for the free agents to whom we’re comparing Ankiel.)
In order for Ankiel to receive a contract in the 4 years/$50-55M range, he’s going to have to have roughly a 9 WSAB season in ’09. Here’s a list of outfielders who were around 9 WSAB in ’08 – B. Giles, Granderson, Ibanez, Kemp, Winn, Hunter, Rios, Burrell, Victorino, G. Anderson, Cust, Cameron (still underrated). The point being – it’s not that difficult to foresee Ankiel having a Torii Hunter-like season this year w/ the Cards -- .278/.344/.466 – in 550 or so PAs. Last year Hunter’s OPS+ was 110. Ankiel’s was 119. Playing time – that’s it. Granted, there is a difference defensively, but if Hunter can get 5 and $90, can’t Ankiel get 4 and $55 or $60?
If Ankiel can’t get 550 PAs as a 29 year old, is he really the type of player we want to invest 3 years and $30+ M in? Why pay Eric Byrnes-money for a guy we could fairly easily replace? It seems as if the only tough call revolves around Ankiel’s having a very good season. If he does, it makes more sense to resign him, yet it also make that much more difficult.
I can’t help but think that the time to trade Ankiel is now. I know that’s not a popular opinion. There are few greater stories in baseball over the last couple of years than Ankiel’s. He’s always been one of my favorites. I was glad he decided to try to resurrect his career as an OF and glad he stuck w/ the Cards, and that the Cards stuck with him, when he became a minor league free agent a couple of years ago. As a fan, I really don’t want to see him in another uniform but the reality is, I have no say whatsoever in to whether or not that actually happens. And though I really like Ankiel, if he moves on, I’ll still be a Card fan and, frankly, I’d rather win w/o Ankiel than lose with him. To me, that means it’s time to see what he’s worth.
If we can get a good young SS for him or a good young SP for him, we should. We shouldn’t dump him just to dump him but I think Ankiel has value. He’ll hit 25-30 bombs next year, he’s a good athlete in the OF, and can play any OF position. Someone will be willing to pay for that. Sure, we might have to toss in a prospect in order to get the player we want, but Ankiel’s got significantly more upside than Skip.
Can we replace Ankiel this year? Surely, yes. Rasmus can step in – he’ll probably be in the OF anyway. Ludwick in RF, Rasmus in CF, and a Skip/Mather platoon in LF sounds ok to me. Ankiel would be better than that combo, but we would gain much more at SS or in the rotation than we would lose in the OF. Like I said, if I’m wrong about Ankiel’s trade value, we can hang on to him and hope he helps us make the playoffs and net us a 1st rounder and a supplemental next June.
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While Ankiel is a great story
and because of that seems to have a special relationship/ place in the hearts of many Cardinal fans, from a non-emotional standpoint, now is absolutely the time to trade Rick. Far better to trade away him now than someone like Ludwick, who could provide value to the team for two or three years.
The biggest issues with trading away Ankiel (other than the tie to the fan base) are his history of injuries and the feeling that what the Cards saw from Ludwick this season is his ceiling whereas Ankiel’s ceiling is still unknown and that Ankiel could still turn out to be the superior player (though given his age and injury history, I think this is unlikely).
Proven
One thing that sticks out to me, Rasmus has proven nothing at MLB level. Obviously he has the talent…. but… what if it takes a while to develop?
I’d really like Ank to play all year and stay healthy if for nothing else to help ease the transition to Colby. Then toward the back half of the season evaluate whether he’s worth negotiating a long term deal or letting go to free agency.
To me Mather and Skip are no more than 4th outfielders.
Ludwick – LF, Rasmus – CF, Ankiel – RF; Skip and Mather on the bench.
just to clarify
I meant to say, that it would be great if you could guarantee a good SS or MI return on Ank now, but what good would that be Rasmus can’t hang right away? It’s a tough call…
The 'proven' meme
How can anyone prove anything if you don’t accept that their minor league numbers are predictive?
This is going to ruffle some feathers (and it’s not directed exclusively toward paposse) but if you don’t think that minor league stats are predictive, you are wrong. Not “I have an opinion, you have an opinion” wrong but “things that are facts” wrong.
The continuation of the call for minor leaguers to be ‘proven’ through some arbitrary vetting process is mind boggling. When does a prospect become proven? 200ABs? Was Ankiel ‘proven’ heading into last season? Was Ludwick? Now everyone thinks ludwick is one of the 10 best hitters in the bigs. None of this means Rasmus a guaranteed lock to be productive next year but him being having not played at the bigs should not be an inherent disqualification. The question is rather has he shown enough at lower levels to indicate that he can add value while moving up.
Calm down
I’m not implying you don’t give them that chance. In fact I said I want to see him start in CF. But that is with known quantities of Ludwick and Ank playing with him. If it takes a while for him to contribute then it’s not such an issue because those guys can carry the load. I don’t like the idea of losing one of the guys’ production while we wait for Colby.
And yes, maybe he’ll come out of the gate swinging. Then great, we have 3 guys to chose from who could garner a good trade before the deadline.
Sorry my opinion does not jive with your ‘facts’.
Totally misconstruing what I'm saying.
First, no where did you type “I want to see Colby play”. You indicate that you’d like to ease him in (which sounds like not playing much to me).
Second, you can make the he’s not prove argument ad nauseum to justify not starting a minor leaguer. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy; if you don’t play him, he’ll never produce.
Third, no one is suggesting just tossing Ankiel’s production away. You acknowledge this in your second comment saying that “it would be great if you could guarantee a good SS or MI return on Ank now” which is what the main post is advocating. The goal would be increased production from the middle infield and a lesser decrease from an Ankiel→Colby transition.
The proven meme is a pervasive one here and it’s not exclusive to you. I’m not riled up. I wish people would grow thicker skin around here and realize these are not personal attacks. The premise of your first post was that ‘proven’ is a valuable trait and the lack thereof is a reason, in and of itself, to hold onto Ankiel. I’m questioning the foundation of that assumption because I think it’s inaccurate.
Ludwick – LF, Rasmus – CF, Ankiel – RF; Skip and Mather on the bench.
Sorry, this was me saying I wanted him starting in CF. I should have typed the words.
As for the rest, I’m sorry you disagree with me and Tony. I want the kid to play and become a star. But I don’t want to gamble a trade until I know he’s not a bust.
You think that’s inaccurate, I don’t. No big deal. I can assure you my skin is fine.
Solution
Just trade Rasmus and get the players that you need and keep Rick, Luddy, and Skipper. I’ll guarantee you that a team will give up more for Rasmus than they will Ankiel.
by Waxing Gibbous on Nov 13, 2008 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
that's a valid point
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
I'd like to also add
that Ankiel wasn’t “proven” prior to last season and, since he’s never had more than 450 or so PAs in a season, his ability to produce for a full season isn’t “proven” either. It’s debatable which of the two, Rasmus or Ankiel, is the more proven commodity given the fact that Rasmus has 93 more professional PAs than Ankiel does.
The Show
Rasmus has 93 more professional PAs than Ankiel does.
Yes, but in my first post:
One thing that sticks out to me, Rasmus has proven nothing at MLB level
Point taken on the full season though. Rick’s health is definitely his liability. Remember though, Rick was destroying AAA in 07 before getting the call in late August. I think he did enough in that late season audition to prove his worth to Tony going into 08. I hope Colby does the same when given the chance.
Further,
Before the season started, we had a proven veteran in Jim Edmonds, and “unproven” players for the remainder of the outfield. I doubt anyone would argue that opting for the “unproven” players was a bad idea last year.
Ankiel is probably our riskiest outfield option considering possible regression, injury, current value, and provenness can be damned.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Good point
I think we all knew Jimmy Ballgame was in steep decline though. With no other choice we went with the unproven guys who figured to at least produce as much or more than Jimmy for less money. Fortunately for us, they did big time. Now we have those known commodities so we can easy Colby in. :)
What i'm saying is that unproven is a word to denote risk,
while proven basically asserts that there is no risk. I’d say Ankiel is around as risky as Colby despite what you say about provenness.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Really?
Rick has had 585 AB since his callup as an outfielder, slugged .535 in 07, .506 in 08, OPS of .863 and .843 to go along with 36 HR and 110 RBI. That’s not a risk to me, unless you’re just talking health.
And health is a risk
We have all seen numerous times in professional sports the regressive impacts of injuries (both short and long term) on the productivity of a player (look no further than the one “proven” outfielder coming into 2007: Chris Duncan).
You have to factor in risk when discussing the trade-off between Ankiel and Rasmus and given the longer term track record of Ankiel, I would tend to say he (of the Ludwick, Rasmus Ankiel trio) is the outfielder with the greatest injury risk.
in addition
it’s seems one of the LH batters needs to go. I’m making the assumption that Duncan is healthy in Spring Traning and gets every opportuinty to show he can play.
LH: Ankiel, Shumaker, Rasmus, Duncan
RH: Ludwick, Mather, Barton
7 hitters for 5 spots, and it appears Ankiel is the logical LH hitter to move as he has the highest trade value, has the highest salary, and will be a free agent next year.
"Most people have the will to win, few have the will to prepare to win---- Bobby Knight"
This is the other issue with proven-ness
While Ankiel might put up better numbers than Rasmus next season and one could argue that the failure rate of Rasmus is higher than that of Ankiel next season, this does not take into account that he the Cards have seven outfielders on the above list. The question of trading Ankiel is not simply the likely rate of Rasmus to be less valuable than Ankiel next season, but also the likelihood of any combination of potential Ankiel replacements (i.e. Duncan, Mather, etc) to out-produce Ankiel.
I'd argue that Rasmus
and maybe even Schu have more trade value than Ankiel.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
Just because you'd argue that doesn't mean it's remotely close to reality.
Rasmus, yes, he could have nearly the same value, and from a team looking to get younger or cheaper you could get more than you could for Ank.
Skip more than Ankiel is just fantasy.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
How So?
Skip has 4 years of Cost Control vs 1 Year of Ankiel. Skip is already Type B Free Agent while Ankiel has not even reached that.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 5:47 PM EST up reply actions
wow
not even remotely close? are you misinformed? or just traditional?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
Skip has great value,
especially to the team who trades for him with the intention of having him play second base…
god, i love baseball. -roy hobbs
+1
This is what irks me most about LaRussa’s comments regarding young players. They imply a lack of understanding regarding minor league performance and it’s predictive power. Not to mention the complete disregard for the financial benefits of players making the league minimum (which I understand should not be his primary concern, but come on). Does he understand that Rasmus was playing at Triple A last year as a 21-22 year old and had earned that promotion through exceptional performance? His season at Memphis was not exceptional, but it was an injury plagued season and he turned 22 mid-season. Worst case scenario, Rasmus will be an exceptional defensive center fielder with excellent speed on the basepaths, some pop at the plate, and a reasonably good OBP due to his batting eye. These things won’t disappear because he is in the majors rather than the minors.
And LaRussa seems to stubbornly cling to the belief that because a player has been in the majors for awhile (i.e. is a veteran, TLR’s favorite word), despite a record of replacement level to league average performance and often times clear evidence of deteriorating performance, he is inherently better than a cheaper, younger player that will in all likelihood perform as well on the field, which is ridiculous.
You want evidence?
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Look no further than right here...
Felix Pie:
career minor leagues: .287/.336/.466 .802 OPS
career major leagues: .223/.284/.331 .615 OPS
Kevin Kouzmanoff:
Career Minor Leagues: .332/.393/.556 .949 OPS
Career Major Leagues: .264/.311/.442 .753 OPS
There are many others on both sides of that coin, which proves the following:
Are minor league stats predictive? Yes, but only to a certain degree, and you can’t take them for granted.
Both of these players had a nearly .200 point drop in OPS from the minors to the majors. Don’t bring up PetCo crap either, it doesn’t effect his OBP dropping .80 points in the transition.
I agree that guys shouldn’t have to prove themselves at the major league level for a season to get a job. Sometimes you just stick them out there and hope for the best with them starting, which is especially true with top prospects. However, you can’t say that because he’s torn it up in the minors at AA that he’s just going to come up and put up a .800+ OPS either. He may need time to figure things out, and if we’re trying to win the division, league, and World Series in 2009 then that may not be the best time to have your top prospect putting up a .650 OPS in CF when you traded away an .850+ OPS player to make room for him.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
Really interesting sub-thread
Good stuff. Does anyone know of some data that might add to this discussion about minor league success? I am thinking about something like the minor league success rate. Obviously career minor leaguers should not be included. But how about the percent of high potential minor leaguers that actually stick in the majors? And conversely, the percent of major leaguers who end up deteriorating to below replacement level? Maybe we can focus on OFs since that is the current topic?
I guess I am thinking along the lines of a Bayesian analysis. So the minor league success and major league failure rates will sort of be prior probabilities. Then we also have to account for the “overall value” of the player including cost-control and salary. Then we can compute the posterior threshold and see if it is preferable to elevate young ’ems or sue proven quantities? Is what I am proposing helpful in this discussion?
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
Sorry about the nerdy lingo.
Let me explain what I am proposing in terms of poker analogy. (BTW, congrats to Dennis Phillips who proudly wore his Card’s cap). So a poker player estimates prior probabilities by watching the patterns of the rest of the table. And computes rates of bluffing and card strength, etc… The player also looks at his own chip stack relative to the stacks of other players. Then the player makes a decision to bet, call, fold, etc… In essence the player can be considered to have performed Bayesian analysis. I guess I am proposing the same type of analysis for trying to figure out a threshold for elevating a minor leaguer. Success rate x value(or cost).
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
I think it sounds very interesting
I think it would be really helpful, but it sounds like a ton of work, and in the end, it really won’t prove that much, since it’s probably a very subjective thing
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Your probably right
I was just trying to come up with some sort of statistical measure to help with the discussion on the veteran vs. promotion discussions. But I think I agree that it might not produce much of practical significance.
born Dodger blue, now dyed Cardinals red
I think it would have helped...
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 14, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
i think you are looking at the wrong stats
or at lest not all of the right ones…Pie and Kouz both struck out at a high clip while not walking very much in the minors which does not project to be a positive thing in the majors. that said Pie has only had 250 at bats in the majors and most of that was spotty so i looked to him to improve on those numbers.
i also notice both seem to have VERY high BABIP numbers in the minors and when that normalized in the majors it caused an expected decline, although because of Pie’s speed his could be higher than Kouz. and, even though you dont want to acknowledge it, PetCo does have a impact since it affects his average so much his obp would come down with it.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." -Rogers Hornsby
i'm hoping somebody will point out with evidence that Colby is free from these concerns?
as I have pretty much assumed on my own. Much better walk rate, not as dependent on average. But I know little about Colby’s strikeout rates or minor league BABIP/luck factors.
Also I don’t know what to think about Pie; has the system given up on him way way too early, or was he just not a hitting prospect to begin with? An .800 OPS in the minors does not scream “major league impact bat” to any rational observor.
Pie and Colby
MINORS:
Pie: bb rate: 7% k rate: 20% babip: .350
Rasmus: bb rate: 12% k rate: 17% babip: .300
these are just quick estimates based on looking at their stats and not exact numbers because i am at work and did not want to take the time to figure them up, but i would bet they are pretty close.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." -Rogers Hornsby
I don't remember claiming that
a .800 OPS in the minors is the same as an .800 OPS in the majors. It’s not. That’s never an assertion I’d make. Any projection would have to take the stats and normalize for league difficulty.
Minor league statistics do correlate to major league statistics though. I believe it was Chone Smith who ran the actual r^2 values but it might have been tango or mgl. I’d have to dig around to find the specific post but it’s out there.
And yes, you are going to have outliers. The fact that you came up with 2 players who didn’t correlate has zero value in proving that minor league stats aren’t predictive. If I find 2 players where it does correlate well would that somehow convince you that you’re wrong? It shouldn’t. A large sample size comparison of minor league and major league stats should and that’s what people (who are far smarter than me) have done.
Each player has a projection relative to his historical numbers with adjustments for age, skillset, league, etc. To add in an artificial qualification that because they haven’t played in the majors we have no idea what they’ll do is flat out wrong. We do have an idea what they’ll do based on their minor league numbers after adjusting them for level of competition.
Again, the goal would be to trade Ankiel so that the upgrade to another position outweighed the downgrade to Rasmus. Even if he puts up a .650 OPS that doesn’t mean anything if the upgrade is more significant at, say, SS.
Hasn't Albert outperformed his minor league numbers in the majors?
Or close to it. Nice rebuttal, robot. There is definitely a correlation—the trends are there, but it’s way too complicated to ever reasonably expect some sort of exact translation for every player. And of course that’s exactly what you’re saying.
has everyone given up on the notion
that teams may view Skip Schumaker as an equal value as Ankiel? cuz I would if I were a GM, or see him as an even greater value
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Cheaper and Controlled longer with better defense
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
and a higher OBP, right?
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
Skip – .359
Ankiel – .338
Last Season OBP
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
What was Ank's OBP
The game before he got hurt? anyone?
I would assume it was around .358. Hang on, I’m going to go see if ESPN has the game logs up.
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Nov 13, 2008 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
Ok
Ankiel had a .282 avg to go along with a .347 OBP, if you look at those stats, Ankiel draws more walks.
Does anyone remember how he was improving in that month before his injury? He was cutting down on his lovely whiffs in the dirt, he was taking more walks, bringing up his average, and become clutch. Don’t under value Ankiel to this team.
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Nov 13, 2008 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
There is really no point of trading ankiel
Ankiel wouldn’t bring us much value in a trade because he is a free agent to be and has an injury risk. But to us when he is healthy, as shown by his steadily improving stats before the injury, he can be a dynamic player. The one real logic in trading Ankiel is to make room for Raz, however I would advocate starting Raz in left, Luddy in right and Ank in center. If Ankiel get injured than we have an adequate replacement platoon of Mather and Schu. If he stays healthy and has a great year and then gets signed to a 50 mil deal by another team then we still have Raz in center, Luddy in right and Mather, Schu, Duncan, Barton, Jay and Daryl Jones to compete for the open outfield job.
by vivaelpujols on Nov 13, 2008 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
I don't buy that argument at all, regarding Ank's trade value.
Sure, some GM’s that are real canny stat-heads may notice that Schumaker is very talented. But I think the info conventionally looked at by GM’s strongly favors Ankiel.
Higher power stats — HR’s win games, and more importantly, sell tickets
High profile player — if you think GM’s around the country didn’t watch the highlight reel of Ankiel’s throws in Colorado, you’re wrong. His remarkable bio will both play well with the GMs and suggest a more marketable player to fans. Skip lacks any of this attention.
Skip is playing against type — Skip has been playing corner outfield spots. His low power, high OBP type is more of a CF profile. You and I know he can play CF, but he hasn’t gotten the CF playing time to show the average GM. Ank could be a classic corner OF or a power-hitting CF.
I agree that Ank’s injury and HGH issue play against him, but I doubt that that drags his perceived value down to Skip’s.
I think you are conflating Skip’s actual value and his perceived value. Many of Skip’s perceived cons are not fair to Skip. But that doesn’t mean that he is not in fact perceived that way.
I think the Holliday fiasco should show that the way we perceive our players is very different from how GM’s perceive them. So saying, “If I were a GM” Skip would have X value does not relate to how GM’s ctually perceive him.
I never said that Ank was like Schu
Ank is clearly a much more dynamic player. I was saying to not trade any outfielders. I explained how that would give us potential, depth and a future
by vivaelpujols on Nov 14, 2008 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
I was actually directing my comments at the whole thread which starts:
“has everyone given up on the notion that teams may view Skip Schumaker as an equal value as Ankiel?”
notice the word VALUE
I’m not saying that they are comparable hitters
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 14, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
Yes,
I know its a month, but even in the month afterwards when he was injured and pretty much useless to the team, he still had 3 hr and 12 RBI.
You could tell he figured something out around the series with the Tigers, even maybe in the Sox series. I just think that Ank has a ceiling we haven’t paid attention to, and if other teams aren’t seeing it, then we are getting ripped off if we trade him.
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Nov 15, 2008 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
And a question
What percentage of Ankiel’s overall development as a hitter does that one month equal? I would assume that one month means almost as much as the great month Rasmus had in the minors before his late season injury.
I understand Rasmus is also quite a bit younger, but just throwing a point out there.
For some reason, I don't enjoy watching Big Mac hit #62, but I fondly remember Ray Lankford blasting the ball out of the park in the same game. He had one sweet swing!!
by miniboscorino on Nov 15, 2008 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
I think Rick's value was damaged
while playing for 2 months in 2008 hurt. It will be hard to sell teams on the notion that they are buying the 1st half 2008 Roy Hobbs v. the Juan Encarnacion Rick of 2nd half. But it’s pretty much a catch 22. The smart thing would be to hold Rick until the All Star Break, hope he puts up big numbers, then sell high. But the fans (and TLR) would scream bloody murder if we traded Rick while having a good season.
But how much
would Rick garner in a trade at mid-season, assuming he plays at the level he did in the 1st half of 08? Would other GMs see him as a half-season rental since Boras is his agent and therefore not be inclined to offer us much in return?
But as the last two seasons have shown
Even if the team should not be buying to make a run, if the club is within shouting distance of playoff spot. then a trade will not not be made. It would be a horrible PR move to trade away Ankiel at the deadline in such circumstances.
I think all that would be required
to get full value for Ank is for him to come to Spring Training healthy and productive. No reason a trade can’t happen then.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Ankiel needs to stay
This team certainly needs a new middle infield combination but Ankiel needs to stay. I liked the idea of trading for Holliday because the outfield would have been better defensively and offensively. Loosing Ankiel, or Ludwick for that matter, weakens the outfield unless the trade is for another outfielder.
Additionally, the Holliday trade was considered because Holliday would have provided additional protection for Pujols and made the line-up a little stronger. I don’t want to weaken the line-up by giving up Ankiel or Ludwick to take care of other needs. Those other needs are extremely important but there are free agents and there are other trade chips besides Ankiel and Ludwick.
SS and 2B are priorities but the process of addition to this area by subtraction of an outfielder doesn’t make sense unless the plan is to add a free agent bat to the outfield. The only FA outfield bat that would strengthen the offense is Dunn and that would cost dollars and weaken the defense. It seems to make sense to me to keep what we have in the outfield and strengthen the middle infield by other means.
Icky
I’ve never understood how people get so hung up on the parts of a team and not the team. If trading Ankiel for a MIF downgrades CF by 10 runs, but upgrades SS/2B by 20 runs, who cares?
And that’s assuming it is a significant downgrade: Mather last year had an MLE of .258/.359/.498 better than Ankiel’s .264/.337/.506 line……and before anyone even says it, with a normal BABIP Mather’s major league line would look damn similar to his MLE line (I feel as though I’ve said that 230 times). There’s a non-zero chance a Mather/Schumaker platoon will outproduce Ankiel and then Rasmus is a 20-30 run player. But there’s way more room to upgrade SS than there is to fall off from Ankiel.
Oh and this doesn’t even take into account 2010 and beyond.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Not disagreeing
I’ve never understood how people get so hung up on the parts of a team and not the team.
Because we’re human and we like good stories.
Too often the human element is lost in arguments like that. Is +10 runs worth more wins? I’m asking because I don’t know. Fans here at VEB might not have any problem moving Ank for an extra win or two but good luck explaining that to casual fans who go to games because they also root for players, buy their jerseys, etc etc. A guy like Ank is easy to get behind and support which is good for business.
Just something else to consider.
unfortunately for you
the cardinals are a business and you can’t afford to let assets walk away if you can get something in return for them. Rick could very well walk after 2009 and the cards could very well get much of nothing in return.
by Waxing Gibbous on Nov 13, 2008 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
Up above
I mean. Shoot. I really need to preview these.
Above talking about Rick and Colby, I suggested re-evaluating at the deadline. I would not advocate waiting and seeing him walk.
deadline
Would we trade ankiel at the deadline if we are in a pennet race?
Likely he will not be a Type A – so if we let him walk we get nothing in return. I think the options are trade him now, or extend him long term. Walking away seems like a poor business decision.
"Most people have the will to win, few have the will to prepare to win---- Bobby Knight"
sure
But it would depend on Colby replacing Ank’s production which is the ultimate goal right? If Colby continues his trend of taking a while to adjust then you’re right, it’s be hard to deal Ank if we’re in the the hunt. Of course, the depends on what we’d be getting in return. Lots of variable there.
what they would get
is not having to pay a ton of money if they let him walk, and having a slugging outfielder with a great arm for 2009. doesn’t sound too bad to me.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
Through statistical analysis
It’s been determined that a marginal (roughly) 10 runs leads to a marginal win. So if a team allows 10 runs fewer it wins another game, if it scores 10 more runs it wins another game and just the opposite is true allowing more/scoring fewer runs. I know Ankiel has drawing power but I’d bet a dollar an increased chance at the playoffs has more.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
I agree our best play has Ankiel in STL in 2009
An OF of Ankiel and Ludwick, with what I presume will be Colby in between gives solid defense (huge to Pitching Staff, Dunc and TLR), versatility in the lineup (2LH Bats, one RH, two with power, one with the uber-set of 5 tools), all can run the bases, are athletic, seem to play fairly well in multiple configurations in the OF, and give our roster a lot of flexibility. This is the type of OF that the majority of the major league clubs aspire to; high upside, fairly cost controlled, and very talented with demonstrated and yet to be demonstrated abilities. Why break it up?
This allows us to play out 09, see if Ankiel follows Lohse’s lead and determines home and 40million dollars is better than new surroundings, and 5-10 million more…If not, take the pick(s), close the chapter in STL history book, and play on.
I also agree with Warcard that FA does present viable options in the MI. Not to say there aren’t better ones available in trades, but there is strong talent out there, that can be had. While I’d love Furcal and think we could get him at 14/15 million for 3/4 years (said he want’s 4 and he made 13Mil last season), Hudson, Lopez, and others are available. I personally assume we upgrade at one, and allow cheaper options fill the rest.
by timmycardinals on Nov 13, 2008 9:48 AM EST up reply actions
Something we're not used to...
I know this is something that few teams do… but seeing the personal connection between Ankiel and the Cardinals, I would think someone needs to, or maybe already has, sat down with Ankiel and see where he stands. Ask him how he feels about the team, what his aspirations are with the Cardinals and his pending free agency. Typically, or at least the impression ownership leaves on me, we do not have heart to hearts between ownership/management and players, but maybe this is a chance to feel out the possibility of exploring our hometown discount with Rick. If he says he’s open to negotiations then great, if he says he’s looking to feel out free agency – maybe we shop him, or if he says he has no idea and needs to talk to Boras, we’re no different we were before.
Personally I think Rick, regardless of Borat, is going to do everything he can to stick around… especially with his emotional vulnerability… I’m sure in the back of his mind he doesn’t want to go to a place unfamiliar to him, where he might not succeed and be subject to ridicule that might bring up some unwarranted feelings & memories… for our sake, lets hope he’s above that now though…
i'd be
willing to guess that it isn’t the teams’ fault that such conversations don’t happen. players and agents don’t want to show their hand when they don’t have to, thus hurting their bargaining position, even if they are willing to discount themselves in order to stick around. Sure he may be willing to play for peanuts to stay in STL, but why should he let the cards know that?
I think Ankiel
will be with the Cardinals for quite some time.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Peavy
Looks to be on his way to Hotlanta, for a package including Escobar.
Guess that rules out getting a MI from the Braves. Maybe this opens up K. Greene from SD though? Any thoughts on what it would take to get him? I wouldn’t think much, would it?
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
There's a reason it wouldn't take much...
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Doesn't mean it's a bad gamble.....
Do you see alot of realistic, better options? Cause I don’t.
You know you’ll get good defense and some pop out of him. Maybe his hitting will come around, maybe not. If we go that route, I’d hope we would try to get somebody a little more consistent for 2B, and that we’d significantly improve the pen.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Nov 13, 2008 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
yeah, but isnt that just another dumpster dive reclaimation project?
for a couple years now the plan was 2009, when the prospects are up and there is money to spend.
If we are going to dumpster dive with Greene with Furcal out there it will be upsetting
www.GriffinandtheGargoyles.com or www.myspace.com/GriffinandtheGargoyles
Dont take me seriously :-D
by jealousblues on Nov 13, 2008 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think you trade for K. Greene.....
Expecting ’08 numbers.
And I really don’t want to throw T. Greene out there. There have been no indications that he is a difference maker at the ML level.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Nov 13, 2008 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
He will be a difference maker
I just don’t think it will be the difference you hope for
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
It's not MLB for sure
but T.Greene is hitting well in the Arizona Fall League. Small sample size but 68 at bats and a line of .294/.385/.529, OPS .914, 9 HR, 36 RBI.
Again, a small sample and a long way from MLB – but it’s certainly better than seeing him stink it up out there.
"Most people have the will to win, few have the will to prepare to win---- Bobby Knight"
21 Ks in those 68 ABs....color me skeptical
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
wow. that's practically TTO.
Space.
It's a problem we face.
So we never go anywhere.
We just stay in one place.
Agreed
The numbers to track with Greene are essentially his K rate and his K/BB ratio….I think he shows enough pop and glove that we can predict him to be a useful MLB SS….if he can just get on base more often. He’s gotta get those K rates down.
whoa now...
Brandon Wood has put up this line in the minors:
.285 /.353/ .539/ .892
while Tyler Greene has put up this line:
.254/ .326/ .418/ .744
and Wood is two years YOUNGER than Greene yet has played at much higher levels…Wood does strike out a lot but has plenty enough OB skills to potentially be a great offensive SS while the jury is still out on Greene but he has not shown enough ability in the past to get on base.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." -Rogers Hornsby
Cept he has twice the power
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Sorry dude
but you are a column off on your power stats for Tyler. He acutally has 2 HR and 9 RBI. the rest are cool though.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Sorry
got a little cross eyed in the columns. thanks for catching that.
"Most people have the will to win, few have the will to prepare to win---- Bobby Knight"
To me, Ank is one of the rare players
whose value to the franchise goes beyond what he accomplishes on the field. The guy IS a great story and a great fan draw, and putting fan$ in the $eat$ ha$ $ome real value. I would therefore be more inclined to keep him around and overpay him than most.
do you really think
they would lose money if they traded Ank? the cards will draw over 3 million fans with or without him and attendance is not as big of a factor in team revenue as one would think. his presence will not affect the media contracts which is where a lot of the real money comes from.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." -Rogers Hornsby
They didn't sell out every game this year
which means that the financial gain of having a “popular” player can’t be just glossed over. A fair question, though, is: just how important is it? Suppose that having Ank on the team nets them 100 more fans per game than would come if he was traded for someone anonymous. Over the course of a season, that’s 8100 occupied seats. Figuring 100 bucks per occupied seat (by the time you include concessions, souvenirs, etc.), that means the Ankiel name/mystique would be worth of order $1M a year to the team.
Is that 100 fans/game figure in any way realistic? Honestly, I have no idea. It “feels” high to me, but not grossly high — in essence it says that one fan in 400 is strongly attracted by the team having Ank. I’d guess that’s not wrong by a factor of 2 in either direction. If so, it gives a sense of just what his marginal value beyond performance might be. It’s enough to think about, although not enough to say “keep him around regardless of performance.”
by StanTheManFan on Nov 13, 2008 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
winning games
is much more strongly correlated to attendance than certain players or managers are. If we traded Pujols, and won more games as a result, attendance would rise. Fans show up to see teams that win b/c we’re much more attached to the team than we are any certain players, including Ankiel. If it’s the best thing for the team, it’s the best thing for the owners’ pocketbooks.
no, they didn't sell out every game this year
early on especially numbers were quite down
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Nov 13, 2008 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
Edmonds was extremely popular, as well ...
and, imo, even more popular than Ank but it didnt affect the attendance this year, at least noticeably. in fact we had more people show up this year than in 2006 when we won the WS…even when Ozzie left on bad terms with management after 1996 there wasnt hardly any drop off in attendance, and he was probably the most popular Cardinal ever. so i dont buy the fans will stop coming argument…although if he was gone there might be less ladies coming to the games…
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." -Rogers Hornsby
The disappearance
of Edmonds and Smith were preceded by an injury-plagued season (or two) and some really bad PR, respectively. It’s a lot different than flipping a cornerstone player in their prime, which would make a lot of Cards fans flip their shit.
Not saying
Ankiel is a cornerstone player. Someone above suggested that a Pujols trade, as long as the Cards keep winning, wouldn’t affect attendance. I don’t think we can predict what would happen if the player traded isn’t playing poorly, or becoming a media distraction.
An Ankiel trade would probably bum out many people in Cardinal Nation, but I don’t think it would affect attendance.
Hudson
his offense has been solid the last three years because he has played in one of the best hitters park in baseball. add that to the fact he is coming back off an wrist injury and i will have to pass.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." -Rogers Hornsby
AND he is a Type A Free Agent
Not worth draft pick
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
in the words of the GREAT Arthur Fonzarelli
Exact-a-mundo!
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to go chase it." -Rogers Hornsby
K.Greene
I think K. Greene from S.D. may very well be an option. I don’t know that it is a great option but Furcal seems to be a very long shot for the Cards. K. Greene along with a Hudson acquisition might be a good combination. This would certainly depend on Greene rebounding and having a productive year. To answer your question, what would it take to get K. Greene? Who knows but I do know that it would not take Ankiel, Ludwick or Rasmus and that is a positive.
Schumaker or Mather could do it
I’m sure they’d love speedy/defensive OFs with athleticism and offensive contribution. More importantly, they’re cost controlled. With Parisi and Garcia out, Boggs needs to be held on to, so I don’t think we can do much on pitching. All my humble opinions.
by timmycardinals on Nov 13, 2008 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
Why all the love for Greene?
This is a guy who has put up an OBP of .279 for his last 1000 AB’s, and he’s due $6.5 million in 2009. What am I missing here? The Cards have plenty cheaper internal options, or $6.5 mil could land somebody far superior on the FA market.
by southsidepat on Nov 13, 2008 10:22 AM EST up reply actions
Who?
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Nov 13, 2008 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
And I should follow up.....
The thing that makes Greene attractive is that we only have to commit one year to him.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Nov 13, 2008 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
The same argument could be made for a Hooker
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
How dare you disparage my super-sleeper minor league boy
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Hookers for a year?
Well, for $6.5M, I suppose that could be possible. Hard to keep it on the down low, though.
+1
He is a pretty safe fall back option. Defense comparable to Iz2, could hit 6th or 7th, wouldn’t have to do much to match iz2’s OBP and will put up superior power numbers.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
that, too,
is one of the primary arguments against Greene. It forces us to give up something valuable — a current piece or future piece — for another 1 year stopgap at SS. It’s no solution. It’s the boy putting his finger in the dike 1 more time. I’d much rather use that asset to acquire a long-term solution for the most important position on the diamond than for a band-aid.
couldn’t have said it better myself
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Nov 13, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
hell
i’d take Ryan over Greene.
he’s not going to do that much worse, and when you consider the fact that he’s 6 million dollars cheaper and doesn’t cost any asset to get him since he’s already on the team. I’d roll with that any day.
Greene shouldn’t be an option just because he’s avail
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Nov 13, 2008 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
i'll bet a hypothetical internet dollar
that khalil greene puts up a higher OPS in his first season outside petco than furcal puts up in his first season outside LA. Yet people want to give furcal 4/60 and don’t want to offer skip schumaker – who is a decent player, but should not be in OUR future plans- for khalil?
If khalil does what I think he’ll do, we can easily sign him long-term after next season.
the enemy's gate is down.
I just don't think it would even take Skip to get him
Now if they ate almost the entire contract and I mean at least $5.5 mil of it than I might consider at a last ditch option, Might
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
i have no issues giving up Skip, for depth. I have no inclination to even discuss the idea of Furcal for 4yr, let alone 60m. So I guess I’m not factoring into the ‘people’ part of your comment.
But I will say this, Greene’s lowering in Petco on his home splits are no different from his ballooning on his Away splits by playing in Coors and Chase. His splits were actually reverse last year (better at Petco than away from it).
His defense is worse (bottom of the pack on PMR) on a team that depends on defense to a large extent. Even Edgar was better, if only slightly.
Speaking of which, guess who’s on the FA market that should come in at a lesser price, should put up a comparable OPS, and should give around the same benefit on defense? Edgar, and he doesn’t cost us any player.
I personally, hate the idea of getting Edgar, but I’d much rather to something of that degree if we’re not going to get a young, cost controlled glove with upside offensively.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Nov 13, 2008 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
If you find someone to take that bet
put me down for one too.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I'd much rather give up Ankiel for Greene than Mather.
Maybe its just me, though.
by Ray Lankford on Nov 13, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
Greene has a negative value
He is below replacement level of 400k. They would have to pay us to take him. Ankiel, HA
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
I was looking at it in terms of potential
As in, I think Mather has more and is cheaper
by Ray Lankford on Nov 13, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't give up either
I doubt you would have to give up a big league player of any ilk, and probably not a strong prospect either.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Umm, why are we talking about Ryan and Greene?
We have an Olympian SS in house who costs us league minimum. Isn’t the question whether Greene is better than Barden? I don’t see how at this point. I’m definitely willing to spend on SS, but I don’t see why the money on Greene is well spent v. Barden.
barden
doesn’t seem to figure into the plans. at least, not in tony’s book it would seem. if we were going to give him a realistic shot at being one of the 25 he would have received many more at bats in september.
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
Barden looked at as utility player ... Tyler Greene is the guy
Inhouse, Tyler Greene appears to have emerged from the scrum at SS with power numbers in 2008 then a stellar AFL. Put me down as voting for Tyler Greene as the Cards starting SS ahead of Khalil. Tyler costs nothing to acquire, plays for league minimum, cost controlled for 6 years, is a former 1st round pick, has power potential, plus defender and he steals bases. FREE TYLER GREENE!
and strikes out a ton
i agree though…i think greene should be given a legit shot at winning one of our MI spots out of ST
so....
the conclusion is that the cardinals should trade ankiel if they can get somebody really good for him, preferably in the MI? Otherwise they should hang onto him and get draft picks? It seems like Ludwick is a much tougher call since he’s cost controlled for more years. This is kind of cut and dried with two clear options. Showing what he’d likely cost to resign is valuable though.
Ankiel certainly would bring more in return
but if trading him means Skip is starting for another year then i’m against it. OF of Ludwick, Ankiel and Rasmus with Mather and Barton on the bench gives us the best chance to win in 09’. Trade Skip now (his value is high as i think it will be) and surely we can get a decent prospects or middle relief help for Skip. We can make the decision on Ankiel nearer to the trade deadline.
Sign Orlando Hudson to play 2B and Isturiz to play SS. Hudson will cost a decent salary but we got the money for it and his offense has been solid the past 3 years.
Milt Thompson FTW!
Skip
Why don’t you want him starting?
I love him hitting against righties, and when a lefty starts, play Barton or Mather.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Nov 13, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
sounds wise
3 count em 3 outfielders needed to cover one position. Put Rasmus in there and you don’t need three guys. Look, see, how easy that was. And at no extra cost you get the gold glove caliber defense for free.
by Waxing Gibbous on Nov 13, 2008 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
Uh.....
It only takes two players, you get to PICK between Barton and Mather. But you already knew that, right?
You don’t think Ankiel or Raz are going to sit vs lefties? LOL
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
by SoonerfanTU on Nov 13, 2008 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
i agree on the skip/barton/mather platoon
but raz won’t sit against lefties. he has hit them just as well as he has hit righties.
"Sorry about him, he's dealing with being an inker. " - Chasing Amy
If Ank is healthy and a Cardinal
he won’t sit much against LHPs either. Whatever off days he does get will be against LHPs, but until he got hurt he played pretty much everyday in ’09.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
Just say no
to Orlando Hudson. His offense has only been good as he has been playing in what is now ranked as the #1 hitters park in the NL. His best road OPS in the last three years was .734 and his overall numbers prior to landing in ARI were in the same neighborhood. Defensive skills have deteriorated as well. His total value and OPD numbers are comparable to guys like Aaron Miles. Just say no.
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
I tried to push this point before
Ankiel is not worth $10 mil a year to us let alone $15 mil a year to us. I would like to see him traded in the off season. Colby is better defensively any how so any struggles he does have can at least be paired with great defense.
P.S
ChuckB and Azruavatar,
Did you guys get my e-mail?
I did
but I’m not in a position to answer the question. (Or at least I decided I wasn’t and filed the e-mail away. Once I decide those things my memory does a reformat and I honestly can’t remember the e-mail topic anymore.)
It was about removing the Probation period
When signing up to VEB during the off season. So we can promote the idea of other team fan’s to come over and share their thoughts. Especially with lots of a trades floating around. It is just a buzz kill, imo. Especially if a big deal does break down another team fan would have to wait 2 days to post here. By that time they will probably not even want to post anymore.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
alternate view
I worry it leads to a lot of drive-by flaming. Reduced tie to the community = reduced likelihood of sticking around to see a rebuttal = reduced incentive to keep it civil.
Just my 2 cents. I know there’s plenty of opportunities for being a jackass even with a probationary period, but I do think it helps somewhat….even if it’s just for 6 hrs to keep the knee-jerk first posts to a minimum.
I could see it happening in a Game Thread
I just don’t see it happening in the off season.
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
I think that's the main argument against it
I think flim is right that this is more of a problem during the season than in the offseason and I’ll talk w/ Dan and AZ and see what their thoughts are, but we’ve had a couple of problems of late w/ people who just arrive not understanding the guidelines and turning our main threads or fanposts into their own personal soap boxes. That’s my main concern.
Thanks for the email, flim. I understand your point and we’ll send some emails back and forth to sort it out.
I aprreciate it
It just got kind of irked me since i got this e-mail from Justin Inaz
“Hi—tried to comment on your post, but apparently it takes two days(!) to become a member over there.”
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe turn it off during the off-season, turn it back on when game threads become a problem?
I hope that hasn’t already been explicitly suggested and I just missed it…
ricks worth
is about mike gonzalez and a mil cash.
Ankiel to the Angels
I think the Angels are probably a good destination for Rick. I agree with the general gist of the post, that the time to trade him now and the prospects should be SS/2B and a pitcher. So how about this trade:
Ankiel for Brandon Wood, Nick Adenhart, and Jason Bulger. We get our SS of the future, and someone who has tore up AAA. Adenhart and Bulger provide good bullpen relief, while Bulger has the potential to be a 3-4 starter. Ankiel makes sense for the Angels bc Anderson and Guerrero are on the wrong side of 35, while Matthews significantly regressed. They also have the money to give him an extension after the trade and it helps resolve the SS glut they have. It’s pretty obvious they like Aybar and Izturis more than Wood, so we should try to use that as leverage.
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
Dood
You have to be kidding, right? If we were able to get 2 of those guys for Rick that would be a steal. The Braves wanted Adenhart and Wood for Mark Teixeira and ended up with Casey Kotchman. I highly doubt that they’re going to deal both of those guys and one of their better MI prospects for a guy that they don’t really need, when they wouldn’t do it for the best switch hitting slugger in baseball.
I’d probably do an Ankiel for Brandon Wood straight up, but only if Wood can play SS, which I’m not sure that he can in the big leagues.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
well then
i didn’t know that about the kotchman/teixeria swap. i guess i shouldve done my research :)
wood for ankiel isn’t a terrible trade anyway. what other position would/could wood (hold on, my brain is imploding) play? 2B? that solves a need then. shift him over to 2nd, platoon Lopez/Ryan/Miles/god who knows who else, tyler greene, etc
"...and pujols has given st louis the lead"
All this talk of Of's and no one has brought up Crab Man?
What is his value worth?
He showed he was healthy and could play in the Majors with some success. He is cost controlled.
Could we deal him to San Diego with Kennedy and take back Greene?
One overpaid MIF for another and we give up a plus OF prospect with the speed to cover some field in the expansive Petco Park.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
You would think the over paid MIFs cancel each other out and we trade
them Barton who we basically got for free and then you can still deal Schumacher for another bullpen arm in a package leaving Mather as the fourth OF with space for a Craig, Freese or Wallace as a 5th OF.
Plus we got a SS bought on the cheap w/ a little upside still possible.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
man, it would be so hard to let Rick go
he’s like that girl you just can’t get out of your system. you love her like you’ve never loved another, yet there’s always this doubt in your mind she’ll never feel the same way about you. you know you’ll eventually have to end it for good & that life will go on & you’ll probably find another girl just as good or better than her. but for some reason, you just can’t let go. she’s been there in some form or fashion for so long that right now you just can’t imagine your life without her. you want to settle down with her & build a future with her, but there’s still all this doubt in you mind,,,, is she’s really the one? or am i just blinded by love & i’m not thinking clearly?
logic & reason go out the window when love in involved. i think the same applies for one Rick Ankiel.
I'm going to go try to find a puppy and kick it. - Brad Thompson AND THAT'S A WINNER!
i feel for all those and the emotional attachment to Ank,
but there are so many things working against him staying around.
Boras.
He’s 30.
Wallace, D. Jones, J. Jay, Mather, etc.
The pipeline of positional talent in this organization is shoving itself down Ankiel and even Ludwick’s throat.
maybe that will make them do even better next season
not a bad thing
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
If Escobar is off the table
can we please not rush to get Greene? He’s overpaid and doesn’t produce. He’s also not a long term option.
If Greene is the only option then we may as well get Iz back, his defense alone should be worth something, and he’ll most likely sign for a contract for much less than Greene’s. That extra coin can be used for other things, like I don’t know… bullpen?
I get that the grass is always “greener” (for lack of a better term) but greene has been a true model of suck lately and Iz’s contract last year didn’t hurt us salary wise even if he couldn’t bunt with his noodle of a bat.
and giving a player up for greene? wow. even worse. It may not be Holliday trade bad, but that would be pretty damn bad in itself.
We need to talk to the Angels, the Dodgers if they manage to keep Furcal and the like and get someone long term.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Nov 13, 2008 1:45 PM EST reply actions
It wouldn't hurt us.....
To give up a scrub prospect. It isn’t like they’ll want Anderson or Todd.
And you do realize we’re running out of options at SS. I haven’t heard a word about Furcal, and now Escobar is gone. If not Greene, who? Greene’s slugging would make him more valuable than Izturis.
"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."
Kahlil Green and Cesar Izturis...........
These two players seem to be pretty similar based on my quick look at things.
These are Career numbers (defensively only at the SS position)
Cesar ZR= .854 RF= 4.43
Green ZR= .851 RF= 4.21
Over their career I don’t know how much of difference there really is between the two at the SS position. It does not look like much difference at all.
Green OBP= .304 SLG= .427
Cesar OBP= .299 SLG= .331
I would try to get Kahlil green in that I would think he would hit better at Busch than Petco. Also he has hit 84 carrer HR to Cesar’s 12 career HR….
I guess you don’t want to give up a ton for Green but I would say he is worth a low level prospect. I thnk as SleepCA says Green may be pretty good once he gets out of petco.
FYI Green is 4 months older than Cesar and will be 29 for all of next year.
wouldn't Kennedy be better than Greene?
is it a guarantee that he’ll be traded? I just don’t see anyone being interested
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
Now we know
that Kennedy can play RF and 1B, but I don’t think he can play SS, can he?
Those Pilgrims ain't lookin' so proud now...
He used to.
But he’s too old now. He’s still really good at second. I’d rather keep Kennedy and sign someone for SS, than re-sign Izturis and trade Kennedy. Kennedy drives me nuts at the plate, but he’s solid in the field, and I bet he knows how to lay down a bunt.
Kevin Gregg is going to the Cubs
Looks like the Cubs have their backup plan for Kerry Wood. Now they’ll be far more active in trying to get Peavy or they will simply overpay for Dempster. They were in a bit of a situation where they would have to chose between 2 of the 3, and potentially be left without a closer.
Not now.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 13, 2008 2:58 PM EST reply actions
I bet they will try to get Peavy even more now.
The Cubs are going to load up on as many all-star players as they can in hopes to finally win something. They are going to become the “Yankees of the NL” pretty quick in terms of payroll and talent.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
To somewhat go with this
It wouldn’t suprise me one bit if they are players for either Manny or Sabaitha. I have actually seen some rumors where they are considering to get into the Sabathia sweepstakes. But if they land Peavy I doubt they will try too hard to get CC. But I expect they will put in a bid for Manny’s services.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
And if they don't get Manny I bet they will get Adam Dunn (which is probably more likely)
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
I think it'll be Abreu
play him in RF, Fukudome in CF, and Soriano in LF.
"Most people have the will to win, few have the will to prepare to win---- Bobby Knight"
Agreed
They can’t get Dunn because Soriano can’t play RF. Abreu is a solid right fielder and also solves their left handed bat problem, although he doesn’t have as much power as Dunn.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
I'd throw Soriano into right field instead.
Abreu and Soriano are minus defenders at this point in their career and Soriano has the better arm.
Gregg is not an "All-Star" Player
He is a slightly above average reliever. If the Cubs want to let him close games rather than Wood or Marmol or Samardzija I am fine with that as a Cards fan. And I don’t know how this makes them more likely to try and get Peavy. Sure it means they may have more free agent money to play with but it also gives them one less prospect from which to deal…
I was more referring to Peavy as the "All-Star player"
than Gregg. I think the Gregg move was made so they can get Peavy.
We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there.
gotcha
Gregg definitely will cost less than Wood—I just think the Padres are too smart to take that rumored Cubs package. Nobody in that group wows me. Vitters is a big name, but he is a long way away. Pie and Cedno have had repeated attempts to show their stuff at the big-league level and haven’t succeeded. And Sean Marshall is a nice pitcher, but his upside is pretty limited to be the showcase arm in a package for a stud like Peavy.
I simply can't imagine the Cubs getting Peavy
They just don’t have the pieces. Escobar by himself is better than anything they can offer.
Kosuke Fukudome: $48 million .257 .359 .379
Skip Schumaker: $Free .302 .359 .406
Skippy needs a new publicist, but I heart Ben Zobrist
Should we put a bid in on Wood?
I’m fine with annointing Motte and Perez for 8th/9th inning work, but Wood is a flamethrower. I’m not sure what he’ll make on the market.
of course we probably couldn’t outbid, say, detroit.
it would be an interesting bullpen
to have all three of those flamethrowers to choose from
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
rumor is 3yr/$30M for Wood
Not sure he will get that – but it is why the cubs are letting him walk. sounds like the rangers are interested – but the cards don’t want anyone for more than 1yr.
"Most people have the will to win, few have the will to prepare to win---- Bobby Knight"
ESPN Bottomline makes
me feel smart for guessing this one.
by Hardcore Legend on Nov 13, 2008 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
So aside from my confusion over Wood scenarios (of the Kerry and Brandon varieties, specifically)
I noticed on mlbtraderumors that Randy Johnson is “unlikely” to be a D-Back in 09, and may have even offered a 50% discount. My question to the not-unwashed VEB masses: what salary range would you think would be ideal if the Cards went after the Big Mustache? I’m guessing it would probably have to be a little higher than the aforementioned hometown discount, but how much more? This is intended to be a separate question from whether it is a good idea to go after Johnson or not in the first play, by the way.
$10 mil in a heart beat
Than do what ever necessary to get rid of Pinero even if it means eating $5 mil of his contract
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
I’m usually heavy on young, and get younger.
But RJ is heavily underrated (which is odd, considering who he is), but yeah I would jump all over 8-10 million easily and I’d even throw in an option year. His stats, even with age are great and considering the ballpark he pitched in they were really good.
Our park should help him, the fanbase would support him, and it pushes Joel to a role of an expensive asset than an expensive liability. (Moving him to long man and spot start will be a better benefit to the team than having him an every 5th day starter).
He can further and finish his career here for all I’m concerned. Albert, Yadi, Troy, Tony and Dave should all be on the phone with him and his agency to try and see if we can get him here.
D-Backs offered him 2-3m? Talk about an insult. Even with money struggles, if that’s the number you’re going to bring to the table, you should let him walk. We could catch lightning in a bottle with RJ, that in itself is surprising to me.
One Century down, next on its way. Cardinals '09 : Preserving the Cubs tradition.
by AdjustedExpectations on Nov 13, 2008 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
I brought this up earlier in the Hot Stove Thread...
…and I think RJ would be a great pick up for $10MM or so. I know we have other needs, but I think we need depth in the rotation big time. I think we at least need to make him a strong offer…too good a player to not consider.
"Your mom likes Albert Pujols" - Happy Joe
by fatbellyjefferson on Nov 13, 2008 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
Offically Useless
Just got Gears of War 2 in the Mail. Got a sweet deal on it too. Only paid $40 for it.
Looks like the Yankees just got Nick Swisher
I like that move for them. He was super unlucky this year. PrOps has him as a .876 with real OPS of .743 =-0.133 of unluckiness. Had a ridiculous 0.231 BABIP
Cardinals only team with more than one Silver Slugger winner
congrats, Pujols and Ludwick!
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 4:56 PM EST reply actions
I am very fickle... After seeing how succesful Luds has been with peer approval
and him saying the trade rumors will challenge him to be consistent I wanna see what he can do to follow up in 2009.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
No
That’s been a popular topic around here over the past few weeks.
I don’t think it’s a good move unless Renteria is willing to play second and take a huge pay cut.
"Your Holiness, I'm Joseph Medwick. I, too, used to be a Cardinal."-Joe Medwick, to Pope Pius XII.
by redbirdnation8206 on Nov 13, 2008 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
ixnay on enteriaray
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
Then Again
1. Schumaker
2. Escobar
3. Pujols
4. Ludwick
5. Rasmus
6. Glaus
7. Yadi
8. Pitcher
9. AK or Miles
That looks good to me, under the assumption Ank will move
if Ank moves
I bet Barton beats out Schu for the leadoff spot
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
How about the Raz leading off. He did a bang up job of getting on base in spring training 2008.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
I wouldn't be opposed to that
I always think of him as a #2 hitter though, not sure why.
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 13, 2008 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
Well maybe he could be the next Rickey Henderson minus the base stealing...
he may swipe some bags but I would never envision him approaching Rickeys prowress for thieving bases.
*Rasmus is to CF as Longoria is to 3B*
We would have to trade Luddy to get Escobar
by vivaelpujols on Nov 13, 2008 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
Most likely
Assuming the Peavy for Escobar thing falls through and that Skip is moved for something, not sure what though, here is what I would like to see:
Escobar
Rasmus
Pujols
Ankiel
Glaus
Mather
Yadi
Pitcher/AK
AK/Pitcher
Bench: LaRue, Greene, Barton, Duncan, Freese
ss lowrie for anderson
2b kennedy for schoeneweis (-0.5 mil)
lhp flores – nontender (+1.0 mil)
closer m. gonzalez for ankiel (-3.0 mil)
u.i. fa punto (-3.0 mil)
u.i miles (arb3 raise)
uses 6.5 mil (est.) of available budget. 10 mil (est) available for sp or sp and ss,
i'm not sure why the braves are trading their closer
middle infield they have some depth, but closer?
as examples of worth, adjusted to a need,
with availability being specualative.
2 lhp’s a 2b and shortstop. a 20 ops+ avg upgrade at 2b / ss, with miles matching his 08. a 19 era+ avg upgrade on 2 lhp’s, to balance the
by ball in play on Nov 13, 2008 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
Braves Closer
There is a strong chance that if he is healthy – John Smoltz will the the closer for 09. I’m not sure if “hoping” Smoltz is healthy, and “hoping” he can stay healthy for the full season is enough basis to trade Gonzalez – but I guess it might be possible
"Most people have the will to win, few have the will to prepare to win---- Bobby Knight"
Andy Pettitte??
I think that would be a great pickup for one year.. granted a little expensive but its not a long term contract
Pretty Sure it is Yankee's or Bust
Plus, He is a Type A Free Agent so we would have to give up a draft pick
by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
why wouldn't the cards offer eckstein arby?
i mean i think they will, but crazier things have happened
Firejoemorgan is going off the air
Sad day in the lives of sports fans when one of the best calls it quits. Though this hurts less then LB leaving us (even though it was in good hands) to have both do it hurts more.
I think this whole Ankiel vs. Skip trade thing
Needs to be dissected a bit…
1. it depends on the team in question… of course Ankiel will have a higher perceived value, but if it’s a team with a small budget and/or need for a leadoff hitter, they would probably prefer Schumaker
2. is the team looking for a player for 1 season, or a cost controlled player over multiple seasons?
3. will the team be worried about injury issues, since Skip hasn’t really been injured
4. they can both play multiple outfield positions, so it makes them both flexible defensively
5. it all boils down to slugging outfielder for more $ and only one season and some risk issues, or leadoff type outfielder that may not be as flashy but will give your team a huge bargain
this line is dedicated to '09
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Nov 14, 2008 2:07 PM EST reply actions
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