This might just work....

by VolsnCards5 on Nov 11, 2008 12:18 PM EST Comment 25 comments

Hang with me for a few minutes. I think I might have a way to fill two "holes" without making any sort of transaction(read: trade, FA acquisition). We would still have other holes that needed to be filled, but simply by tweaking the way we look at one of our pitchers, I believe we can plug some gaps.

I have very little confidence that Chris Carpenter will be able to be an effective starter next season due to his nerve issue. I also believe that he can pitch next season. That may seem like a contradiction, and maybe it is, but I still believe it. If I'm right about his injury(which the Cardinals have not been completely forthright about everything, so i may not be) his problems stem from overuse. This is obviously not good for a starting pitcher.

Chris Perez is the Cardinals closer of the future. The future is closer than it was at this time last year, but I'm still not sold the future is here. I'm not sure we should heap all of the pressure involved with being a closer onto young pitcher next season without a little more apprenticeship. That being said...

What about using Carpenter as our closer next year? He could pitch 3-4 times a week and leave the other save opportunities for Perez as Carpenter rested. According to stlcardinals.com, the BOB had 73 save opportunites last season, converting 42 of them. Granted, we had the 2nd most save opps in the majors(most in the NL) so that number may come down some next season. But lets say we get 60 save opps next season. Thats roughly one save opportunity every 3 games, right at 2 per week. If carpenter pitched even 2-3 times a week, he would probably get 70% of our save opportunites, leaving Perez to pick up the other 30%. Carpenter definitely has the stuff to efficiently shut a team down for one inning. Since the beginning of 2005, Carp has thrown about 14.3 pitches per inning(info from fangraphs). Going right at batters may cause the number to go even lower. So, we could have a high quality closer, and it won't cause any unneccessary overuse of Carp's arm, all while giving Perez a pretty good share of save opps. That is one hole "filled."

This would also allow us to fill a second hole: 4th/5th starter. Adding Carp to the pen would allow us to move McClellan to the rotation. McClellan to the rotation has been discussed ad nauseum on this site. He defnititely has the stuff to be a pretty solid starter, the question lies in his arm health. McClellan kind of remind me of Wellenmeyer though; I doubt we could get 32 starts out of him, but it would not surprise me if he was able to start 25-28 games and go close to 6 innings in those game. He had control problems as a starter in the minors, but sorted those out for the first 4 months of last season. Maybe if he has a full offseason working out to be a starter, he could be a reliable guy with nice upside to add to the rotation.

A rotation of Waino, Welly, Lohse, McClellan, and Piniero/Boggs/Veteran cheap FA doesn't look that bad. And a bullpen anchored by Motte to Perez to Carpenter, sprinkled with a little Franklin and hopefully Springer isn't awful, as long as we add 2 Lefties to the mix.

Thoughts?

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Not a terrible idea.....

But I’m against it.

I think moving K-Mac to the rotation is just asking for trouble. Not saying he doesn’t have the stuff to start, but with the injury history, and after his pretty darn solid year in the pen last year, I’d like to see him stay there. If he moves to the rotation and falters, then both our pen and rotation have been weakened.

Kind of feel the same about Carp. If you pencil him in to close, and he can’t, you just can’t go find a closer at the last minute. If we have him starting, we at least have some backup starting options, and hopefully we’ll go sign another one this offseason.

"Stats are for losers," Muschamp said after last week's victory. "I like winning games."

by SoonerfanTU on Nov 11, 2008 12:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The same sort of shuffle has been bandied about here before...

Here’s my problems with this proposal, in no particular order:

If Carpenter is healthy enough to throw one inning 2-3 times a week, then he should be healthy enough to throw 5+ innings every 5 days or so. We could even use a spot starter for him if he needs an extra day of rest. You’re paying him $15M per year to headline your rotation, that’s an awfully expensive closer. I don’t see him being healthy enough to do either until at least June of next season, possibly later than that or not at all.
McClellan has only thrown one season above AA: the 2008 season. He was fantastic for the first half of the year, but got worn down in the second half. If he doesn’t have the stamina to throw 70 innings a season without wearing down, how could we expect him to handle a load that would be more than double that? I just don’t see it happening.
Carp doesn’t really solve our bullpen problems, because he might not be any more effective than McClellan has shown he can be, and he’s not lefthanded. Kinney and Franklin will take a little more of the load off of KMac next season, and Springer could as well, although I don’t think he’ll be back with Franklin, Motte, Perez, Kinney, and KMac all coming out of the pen from the right side.

I would rather hold out the hope that the Cardinals can get a half season or more of starting out of Carpenter and go find a veteran closer, be it Izzy, Saito, or Hoffman.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Nov 11, 2008 12:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

my take

throwing 90 pitches every 5 days is a lot harder on the elbow than throwing 20-25 pitches 2-3 times a week…or at least that is what all the baseball players who i have had as patients have told me

by VolsnCards5 on Nov 11, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't

Izzy make a comment to the contrary last season, or the season before? He talked about how much warming-up there is, and the fact that you might go through all of that and still not get into the game.

The thing with nerve issues is that inflammation can exacerbate the situation (pain, swelling, discomfort, etc). Constant pitching without large blocs of rest would, I think, cause constant inflammation. I would think it’s analogous to having a migraine once a week versus having a fairly bad headache 5 days a week.

by spants on Nov 11, 2008 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

familer

this kind of sounds like what the braves orginaztion did with John Smoltz he had been injured a little bit not near as much as carp but they had none stop bull pin problems with a pretty good starting rotation. is it like the organization will do this prolly not. but it isnt an half bad idea

by redbird34 on Nov 11, 2008 12:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

elbow vs shoulder

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Nov 11, 2008 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Questionable Hypothesis

Your theory is based largely on whether Chris’s problems stem from overuse. From all that I’ve read, the nerve issue is a mystery, even to the experts like Paletta and Andrews.

Carpenter COULD be used as a bridge closer until Chris Perez has more seasoning. But I don’t really see this as the optimal solution. Carpenter has too many skills, too many pitches, and (normally) too much stamina to limit him to working as a closer.

The Cardinals might use Chris in relief roles to help him break back in, but even this seems unlikely. You want your starting pitchers to get into a five-day rhythm, and pitching an inning every other day doesn’t help that.

IMHO, the best option is to find another SP in the off-season (Randy Wolf or Braden Looper calibre), shore up other areas on the team, and hope that Carpenter makes a modest recovery to pitch by April/May.

Nice creative thinking, though.

by JWO on Nov 11, 2008 1:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Over-use.

I don’t think he was over-used last season and he still got hurt.

Our country reeks of trees. Our yaks are really large. And they smell like rotting beef carcasses. And we have to clean up after them. And our saddle sores are the best. We proudly wear women's clothing. While searing sand blows up our skirts.

And the buzzards, they soar overhead. And poisonous snakes will devour us whole. Our bones will bleach in the sun. And we will probably go to hell. And that is our great reward. For be-ing the-uh Ro-yal Canadian Kilted Yaksmen!

by Tackle Box on Nov 11, 2008 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Carp

I could be way off here, but as far as Carp’s health it sounds like the elbow is fine – but the nerve problem is a mystery and can act up at random.

No nerve problem: he can pitch as a starter and be very effective -maybe even the dominant pitcher we love.

Nerve acts up – he can’t pitch at all.

It seems like a “All of Nothing” situation, where putting him in the pen is not going to protect him.

"Most people have the will to win, few have the will to prepare to win---- Bobby Knight"

by Knighttime on Nov 11, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's sorta my point

With him its not about over-use. He wasn’t over-used and he still got hurt last year. Although I’m sure the amount of “use” he is exposed to only heightens the chances something flares up. Of course, that’s the same with anyone I presume, but with Carp a figure it’s magnified especially during this up-coming season.

by Tackle Box on Nov 11, 2008 10:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm in PT school

Overuse could definitely be the reason that his nerve is getting inflamed. Of course it could also be from other reasons. But my money would be on some sort of overuse.

by VolsnCards5 on Nov 11, 2008 5:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't be

surprised if Carp’s nerve issue is from over-use. Chronic inflammation can do strange things to a body.

As for using Carp out of the ‘pen, I’m not sure that would work. It could, in fact, be harder on his body: periods of rest, periods of warming up, periods of rest, periods of pitching, etc. And doing this grind 3 or 4 days a week without ever really giving his shoulder (and nerve) a break? I don’t think so.

by spants on Nov 11, 2008 1:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

the way i take it...

is that for some reason the nerve acts up when it gets “riled up” and the mystery is why that is happening….maybe i am wrong and overuse isn’t was is causing the nerve to mysteriously act up, but i have seen nothing that indicates that

so yea, i still think it souds like some sort of overuse thing

by VolsnCards5 on Nov 11, 2008 5:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have some nerve issues

that are related to a bulging disc in my neck. I know the situations are totally different, and also different nerves causing problems, but the treatment I’ve been prescribed to limit my pain and discomfort is to rest. Nerves are nerves, so I’m guessing – and feel free to correct me – that Carp would also require a lot of rest to help with his nerve issues. Just not sure that’s going to be possible if he’s an MLB pitcher.

by spants on Nov 11, 2008 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no you are right

but i don’t believe this nerve issue is coming from spinal column issues…from what i’ve read, its inflammation of the nerve…and that is usually caused by an overuse type issue or impingement

they would have found the impingement by now so inflammation seems to me to be the problem…it might be that he cannot pitch at all until they have sorted the nerve issue out due to the symptoms, but i have not read that anywhere….which is why i made the point that i reserve the right to change my opinion if they release more info

hopefully you are right and its not an overuse type thing and they figure it out before ST so he can start all next season, but just from what i’ve seen with other baseball players, this is my “professional in 1 and a half more years” opinion

by VolsnCards5 on Nov 11, 2008 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know Carp's nerve

issue isn’t related to spinal issues. I was just relaying my experience that rest is usually the best medicine for nerve issues. And like you said, they’re saying it’s not due to impingement. It’s a very weird case.

by spants on Nov 12, 2008 1:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

maybe he could play second base…his tall frame could probably get some good tourque on a ball as a hitter

by VolsnCards5 on Nov 12, 2008 9:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We

only convert our pitchers into outfielders in this organization. We’ll convert our outfielders into infielders and our infielders into pitchers. Get with it, man.

by spants on Nov 12, 2008 1:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We sure did a lot of converting infielders into outfielders last year....

and outfielders into bench warmers.

by Tackle Box on Nov 12, 2008 1:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

by spants on Nov 12, 2008 1:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

When you have that much talent

at MI, you simply have to find a way to get it in the lineup.

by MotherTruckinSteve on Nov 12, 2008 2:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is all exactly why....

Mozeliak HAS to offer Looper arbitration. If he accepts, he will get approximately 7 or 8 million for the year, give us 30 starts, and allow a solid 1-4 of wainwright, lohse, wellemeyer, and looper. Piniero is no. 5 unless Carpenter is healthy. Then Joel becomes the long man or odd man out, and we have depth for the rotation.

If Looper declines, we get the supplemental draft pick when he gets a Marquis-like 3 year/21-24 mil deal and move on.

I do not think Looper coming back at the proposed price would be detrimental to our offseason, even if we spent another 8-10 million on a Hudson or a Fuentes type (not saying they would take one year deals, btw).

Secondly, regarding KMAC’s role. I read that we would be interested in a long-reliever on the FA market and/or trade market. Why not extend Kmac into a long reliever next year specifically. This would stretch him out, give him the other parts of our pen an identified role, and IF he held up, that could prepare him to compete for a rotation spot in 2009.

by timmycardinals on Nov 11, 2008 4:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

For $2 to $3 mil more you could have Randy Johnson

by FlimtotheFlam on Nov 13, 2008 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Carp

First off, Vols, I’m only a little sorry about how this weekend turned out for the Big Orange. It was exciting for us Cowboys fans out there, though. It’s good that we have the Cards in common!

In general, I would be against Carp being in the closer’s role. Like fourstick mentioned, I think that if healthy enough to be a closer, Carp would be healthy enough to start every 5th day. Secondly, being a closer isn’t a place to ‘shake the rust’ off you’re throwing arm. When/if he comes back, he will need to get innings to gather command once again. If it appears he will come back, I would expect LaRussa/Duncan to use him in middle innings until he appears healthy/controlled once again, and then move him to starter.

As far as KMac being in the rotation, I hope that he eventually gets there, but I agree that now may not be the time. Depending on who we have to give up for trades, he may be forced into that sort of role, though.

by WyoCardsFan on Nov 11, 2008 9:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yea

so much for winning one for the outgoing coach…it has made me physically ill to watch the vols this season

i agree the closers role is not the place to shake off rust…i was hoping ST would do that

i guess i just don’t see that “if healthy enough to close, then healthy enough to start” argument….there are plenty of ML relievers who could not stay healthy as starters and were converted to relievers in order to lower the load on the arm…but i could definitely be wrong

by VolsnCards5 on Nov 11, 2008 11:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs